Cole asked about a red wave in a blue state last night. I don’t know about any other blue state, but I don’t see it happening here.
Apparently the thinking is that Governor Kathy Hochul is in danger because isn’t ahead in the polls by 20 points. That’s nonsense. Her opponent, Lee Zeldin is a remarkably unattractive candidate, but he does have a bunch of noisy supporters. I have yet to see a Hochul lawn sign, while dozens of Zeldin signs blight the lawns in my fairly blue but still somewhat Republican town. This is typical for Republicans in upstate New York. They consider themselves victims of the tyranny of downstate New York, when in fact their lives up here are subsidized by taxes from downstate.
The geography of this race is a bit different from the average New York race, because Hochul is from Buffalo and Zeldin is from Long Island. Normally, Democratic statewide candidates are from downstate. This matters in the primary, but not the general — I doubt that a lot of the solidly blue districts downstate are going to have voters crossing over to elect an anti-abortion prick from Suffolk County. Zeldin, La’Ron Singletary, the numpty running for the US House in my district, and other Republican candidates that I see around here just aren’t charismatic crossover-voter-inspiring candidates.
My guess about what’s going on with Hochul and the media is that she’s “foreign” by the insular standards of the downstate press who actually, in their heart of hearts, liked Andrew Cuomo. Hochul is a big part of the last couple of years of true Democratic rule in New York. Even though we have long been a blue state, Cuomo presided over a split Senate where he and a couple of turncoat Democrats could be the dealmakers, and in that role, he blocked a lot of progressive legislation. Now that both chambers of the legislature are solidly blue, we have a progressive state government with progressive policies like legalized cannabis and loud-and-proud support of women’s rights. There are a lot of members of the “liberal media” who are old, white, male and uncomfortable with an Irish grandmother from Buffalo. As far as I’m concerned, fuck them, collectively and individually. Hochul’s going to win, and they’re going to squirm.
Note also that Chuck Schumer is on the ballot and Chuck always wins.
As a final note, like a lot of you (I assume), this election weighs heavily. It really does seem like one of the last gasps of democracy and women’s rights in this country. It also seems that something that used to be more-or-less reliable — polling — isn’t anymore. The polls can be wrong in either direction. We just need to fucking fight.