(Mostly profit, for the GOP and their paid media enablers)
Yes, you read that right. Over the last six months now, <real> (inflation-adjusted) disposable income has slightly <increased>, while you’ve been told, in dozens of articles for every one on the economic recovery, of the scope and scale of the massive suffering from inflation. https://t.co/eW5kP43b1p
— Mark Copelovitch (@mcopelov) October 27, 2022
Trying hard to think of a period in modern US history where we’ve had a larger disconnect between the dominant media/political narrative of the state of the US economy and the actual data. Not sure there is one. https://t.co/XoYV2AHv17
— Mark Copelovitch (@mcopelov) October 27, 2022
What w/d your reaction be, in Jan 2020, if you were told: "There's going to be a raging pandemic, 1.1M Americans will die, the economy will crater, & unemployment will rise to 14.7%. But by Oct 2022, it'll be 3.5% & real GDP will only be 1% below trend." https://t.co/ljYCMQlPLm
— Mark Copelovitch (@mcopelov) October 27, 2022
You can imagine many others. But a drumbeat Narrative™️ that "everything is terrible, the ARP was far too large, & everyone is suffering massively from inflation" seems like a category mistake & wildly out of proportion to the data. We've lost the plot.https://t.co/9Es3mu5j9X
— Mark Copelovitch (@mcopelov) October 27, 2022
And again, if you think, separate from the economics, that the politics would really be better for Biden if only the ARP had been smaller & inflation were 2% lower, I don't really know what to tell you. We seem unable to keep our eyes on the ball.https://t.co/8X8iaFNEkH
— Mark Copelovitch (@mcopelov) October 27, 2022
A Ghost to Most
Mostly profit, but not a small portion of spite.
Parfigliano
First….not first to call the media shits
Martin
California is now the 4th largest economy in the world, overtaking Germany. Clearly we are a failed state.
Ken
@Martin: Nobody lives there any more, it’s too crowded.
NotMax
No sooner share two FYI comments which might prove of interest than a brand spanking new thread appears. Rather than copy/paste them in full here, just the links:
#1 — #2
Baud
@Martin:
That’s because all your dead wood moved to Texas.
SpaceUnit
I’m starting to think our corporate MSM is terrified that there’s actually going to be a blue wave. Not sure what else can explain it.
Stuart Frasier
@Martin: Bigger than Germany with less than half the population.
Kropacetic
@SpaceUnit: But I’ve been told repeatedly by Republicans that the media are on our side.
Elizabelle
@SpaceUnit: Yep. And the fuck the fucking Sulzbergers, too. (Of FTF NY Times.)
It skeers them.
SpaceUnit
@Kropacetic:
I think that last Kansas election left them quivering in their bunkers.
Salty Sam
Mmmm, Bar-B-Q…
Eyeroller
Recalling the NPR headline discussed in earlier threads (“The economy is improving, but don’t be fooled”), IMHO that’s an example of bias. “Don’t be fooled” suggests that the reports are unreliable or outright lies, i.e. that the economy isn’t really getting better. A more neutral, but perhaps less clickbaity, headline might be something like “The economy is improving, but risks remain.”
OzarkHillbilly
Just got to say once again, DEMs are on the short end of the messaging stick.
@Ken: Amen.
Cameron
I put this up in a previous thread, but it’s apropos, so I think it’s worth re-posting.
https://cepr.net/gdp-2022-10/
Ruckus
@Martin:
Isn’t funny how seemingly many of the other 49 states do not want to be like CA and be functional, rational, monetarily positive, and an actual nice place to live that for fucks sakes actually likes it’s citizens?
catclub
Corporate profits are at record highs. Profits have grown more than workers wages.
There’s your inflation.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
The GOP created their own media to address that problem for them.
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
Catastrophe in London.
Palmerston broke into No. 10 Downing Street and was arrested (photo).
catclub
@Martin: Clearly we are a failed state.
also, nobody lives there anymore.
sab
@Eyeroller: Yes. If the reports are lies NPR shouldn’t be reporting them.
Kropacetic
@David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: Link broke.
New Deal democrat
I’m afraid I’m going to pour a little cold water on this.
Yes, *nominal* disposable income rose in both quarters, but *real* inflation adjusted disposable personal income *did* decline in the 2nd quarter, but made up for it in the 3rd quarter (thank you declining gas prices). Compared with the 1st quarter, it is up less than 0.1%.
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=VkS7
As Paul Krugman has pointed out, Biden’s approval rating is all about gas prices.
Alison Rose
@Martin: All Newsom’s fault. Including everything that came before him. Before he was even born. All his fault. This is what I learn from Instagram commenters.
Kropacetic
@New Deal democrat: Well then Biden should just lower gas prices. A Tweet will do it, right?
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Kropacetic: Perp Walk (photo)
sab
@Ruckus: You have no water and we know that you have no water.
ETA Great Laker in the Midwest here
ETA You also have few electors, much less than your population should expect.
Alison Rose
@sab: We are working on a new desalinization plant to process all the California Republicans’ tears into drinking water.
Kropacetic
@Alison Rose: Diminishing returns there. California Republicans are a scarce resource.
sab
@Alison Rose: @Kropacetic: I am on board for both. I have a RWNJ brother in Marin. Milk him.
Kropacetic
My dirty mind was disgusted when I read this.
Almost Retired
@Martin: Wow, that’s an extraordinary statistic about California’s economy overtaking that of Germany. On the one hand, German GDP is probably more equitably distributed. On the other hand, we’re way too mellow to threaten France or Poland with invasion. Plus tacos over sauerkraut any day.
Alison Rose
@Kropacetic: Yes, but they cry a lot. Especially on election day!
Alison Rose
@sab: Happily, since I assume he is either rich or likes to pretend he’s rich? I grew up in Marin County, but in the northernmost city which was very middle-class, and not hoity-toity like most of the rest of it.
sab
@Kropacetic: Not sex . Just sociopathy.
When I was young and he did awful stuff I just thought “that’s boys.” When I married my husband I found out torturing animals and beating up your sister (banging her teeth on the floor) isn’t boyishness it’s just sociopathy.
Kropacetic
@sab: Yeah, that was my sister for me.
sab
@Alison Rose: Corte Madera
I really really liked San Rafeal. I mostly lived in boondocks ( Woodacre)
Almost Retired
@sab: Los Angeles resident here who recently returned from a driving trip around Lakes Michigan and Superior. Hmmmm, seems you all have a lot of water up there you don’t seem to be using. I’m just thinkin’ ……….
Cameron
If anybody needs about 2 minutes of Halloween, here’s AquaSatan:
https://publicdomainreview.org/collection/the-infernal-cauldron-1903
Omnes Omnibus
@Almost Retired: Molon labe.
sab
@Almost Retired: Vile beast that you are!
Martin
@Almost Retired: I mean, I really like sauerkraut. Not interchangeable with a taco though.
I’m curious what the looming housing showdown is going to do. One thing I learned early on in my career is that all sorts of problems just vanish if you come to accept the underlying problem that various rules and regulations exist to solve and work in good faith with the regulators to solve that problem. Along the way, you can reject *all* of the proposed remedies so long as the problem gets solved. They will make exceptions for all of it. But you have to act in good faith.
I’m watching my city do exactly that. We aren’t a hard target for the RHNA even though we have a sizable mismatch between housing units and residents because we’ve been doing a LOT to remedy the situation. Problem is migration from our neighboring cities that are not, and our city can’t build enough to accommodate half the county. So even though we’re a bit behind, we’re seen as an ally in the effort to get enough housing built because the city is there, the effort is there, we agree with the goal.
By fighting it, you give up your seat at the table. You can no longer craft a remedy that is locally acceptable because you rejected everything and all that’s left is what some developer would like to do, not some reasonable middle ground. IOW, we’re hitting the find out phase of the fucking around with housing policy problem. It’s going to be pretty painful to watch I think, but it’s a necessary lesson and should hopefully put things on the right path. I worry the state officials don’t have the backbone to stand firm here.
Adding another 3 million housing units to the state should do additional wonders for job growth and output.
Martin
@Almost Retired: In case you had missed it, the Mississippi is drying up – enough so that the feds are building a levee to keep sea water from working its way back up to water supplies.
CA might be a decade further along on the drought, but the midwest is about to learn about water management the hard way.
<insert welcome_to_the_party_pal.gif>
James E Powell
@Ruckus:
On my occasional visits back to my home town of Cleveland, I am often amused & appalled at the beliefs the people I know there have about my adopted state.
Alison Rose
@sab: I hung out in San Rafael a lot as a teenager. Not sure if we’re close enough in age to have possibly passed each other on 4th Street at some point though :P My parents lived in Woodacre before I was born.
lamh36
Good evening BJ.
just dipping in briefly cause I have a question for peeps in NYC.
I’m officially off work for the next 2 weeks for my birthday! My first international birthday trip since 2019 (damn COVID) begins next Tuesday!!
I am FINALLY going to Italy. My sis, my cousin and I are going to Milan-Venice-Florence-Rome for a total of 10 days starting next week and return Nov 10.
But first we’ve got a weekend in NYC…right now we’ve got stuff planned (we were just there in July) but mostly it’s just a long layover. So we won’t likely do anything while there. Then we’ve got another bookend weekend after we return we’ve got another 48hr layover in NYC.
So I’ve come to the BJ commentariat asking for recommendations.
The majority of these questions I’ve got some ideas or plans, but I trust my BJ peeps to lead us the right way.
For reference here is the itinerar:
Tonight I’m doing some final run through, but I’ll be back to see if ya’ll got some good ideas for me.
Almost Retired
@Martin: if you’re local , the LA Times has an excellent series on housing policy and its effect on prices, homelessness and overcrowding, focusing particularly on Pico-Union with its modern day tenements with a close up view of the Ritz Carlton tower. The housing issue could threaten our success. Also the water issue, but I think I found a solution for that problem upthread.
Baud
@lamh36:
Have a wonderful trip!
Almost Retired
@sab: Uh oh. I over-estimated Midwestern nice. I thought we’d be able to siphon off one of the lesser Great Lakes if we just asked politely.
different-church-lady
Right now in corporate boardrooms across America…”
Gentlemen! It has come to our attention that our price increases are not keeping pace with people’s income increases! This must be fixed immediately!”
James E Powell
When I rant & rave about the willful ignorance & belligerent stupidity of American voters, it’s because of shit like this. Gas prices have been a big fat issue since the first oil shocks in the early 70s. Despite this 50 years experience of the prices going up & down with no relation to anything the president or a senator or a governor does, American voters will go one way or the other based on the price of gas.
oatler
@Cameron:
That’s a slur on Satan.
Southern Goth
@Martin:
Still impressive, but German GDP is down a lot in 2022, probably because of the sanctions against Russia.
It’s almost as if you are taking pleasure in Germany’s suffering. Is there a word for that?
Geminid
@lamh36: I only lived in New York City for a few months but I thought the Staten Island Ferry was pretty neat. I just went to and fro.
I think I lead a boring life, though. Even then.
Dan B
@lamh36: The Boboli gardens are a nice way to get out of the tourist areas in Firenze. The art is amazing but you might begin to feel too crowded.
The Pantheone is a must for Rome plus St. Peter’s. And not far from the Spanish Steps is a beautiful park on the hilltop. And there are many plazas from the old racetracks. Rome felt older than any place in India. And there’s a great water garden, Vill d’Este in Tivoli, an hour from Rome called the greates waterfall garden in the world, and Hadrian’s Villa on the way.
Scout211
Democrats are running a new ad during the World Series against Oz. It’s all about his statement on abortion during the debate. Inquirer.com
PA Truth
I hope these hard-hitting abortion ads will be prominent in the next few days for the Dems.
Brachiator
Wow. It amazes me that some Balloon Juice jackals keep wanting to insist that inflation is a mere chimera, a figment of the imagination fed by a malignant pro Republican media.
It is absolutely true that the economy is improving. But let’s see, the COLA adjustment for Social Security recently announced was 8.7 percent, the highest increase in 40 years, and still does not match official government measurements of the cost of living for the average senior.
The October cost of living adjustment for SNAP EBT benefits was 12.5 percent.
These record high adjustments did not come out of nowhere, and we’re not just pulled out of the government’s ass. Unless you believe that the federal government is just making shit up.
Corporate profits are up. But there was a recent story of a number of CEOs bragging about how they were raising prices, which is feeding inflation far more than bizarre claims that people are making too much money or that unemployment needs to be higher.
The federal standard deduction and income tax thresholds for 2023 have all been automatically increased to account for inflation. This is part of economic reality, not biased reporting.
Ohio Mom
I was going to leave a reply for lamh 36 but the reply button won’t work.
Looks beautiful in New York this weekend: https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/96f2f84af9a5f5d452eb0574d4e4d8a840c71b05e22264ebdc0056433a642c84
You’ll need a jacket but I don’t think that’s cold enough for winter coat.
Baud
@Brachiator:
No one is saying inflation doesn’t exist. You’re over reading the criticism.
Ohio Mom
Brachiator: you don’t have to convince me inflation is real, I am finding grocery prices downright scary.
sab
@Alison Rose: I am a mid boomer, so my guess is you are a lot younger than me
My guess is you grew up in Fairfax?
sab
@Almost Retired: Midwestern nice doesn’t apply to stealing our lakes. We are polite but not complete chumps.
Soprano2
I’m at choir waiting for rehearsal to start, and there are two people behind me who are deep into weird conspiracy stuff. It’s kind of terrifying to listen to. “We’re definitely going to be in a war” “the vaccine is a conspiracy”, that kind of crap.
VFX Lurker
I had the pleasure of visiting Italy in 2004. Prepare yourself for an immersion in natural/architectural/artistic beauty and good food.
I did not travel to Milan, Venice, Florence or Rome. I have heard stories that each of these great cities (like New York, New Orleans, Chicago, Los Angeles, London, Tokyo, Paris etc) is amazing enough to justify a vacation all unto themselves. 🤩
General tips:
I wish I had learned more Italian before traveling to Italy. I used this phrase a lot: “mi scusi” (“excuse me”). I should also have used this phrase more: “grazie” (“thank you”).
If you have access to Hoopla Digital via your local library, consider borrowing Rapid Italian, Vols 1-3. It’s an English-Italian phrasebook set to music. I have not yet tried the Italian version, but their Rapid Japanese series is amazing and was a big help to me before traveling to Tokyo a few years ago.
Wishing you the best-ever trip!!! 😀
Matt McIrvin
@James E Powell: The standard Facebook response to any mention whatsoever of the state of California will somehow mention or depict people crapping in the street. That’s THE only thing about California as far as most of the country is concerned.
sab
@Alison Rose: I am NE Ohio and my veterinarian is from Novato. Small world.
Steve in the ATL
@lamh36:
“Prego” will take care of 90% of your Italian language needs
Steve in the ATL
@Soprano2: say hello to my sister and her husband for me!
J R in WV
We spent several days in Firenza pre-Covid. Was very hard to find places in our rental, some people were not happy to have foreign tourists to make a living from, but the seafood was to die for!!
The Palace of the Doge, with the gardens already mentioned above was interesting, if somewhat expensive for additional parts, after you already paid quite a bit. But amazing palace.
The streets are interesting once you get past the tourist area. We spent most of the week in the country in the vineyards, which was fine!
ETA: LOVE Italy, the food, the wine, and 98% of the people
Have fun… oh, NYC, Ellis Island is surprisingly interesting…
kalakal
@lamh36: You’re in Florence for 3 days, you can’t go wrong .
The Uffizi, Pitti Palace, Bargello, the Duomo & Baptistry ( Ghiberti took 21 years to make the doors!). Did I mention the Uffizi.
If you want a great view of the city stroll across the Ponte Vecchio to the Belvedere
If you like Renaissance art you’ll be in heaven
delphinium
@lamh36: The Uffizi Gallery in Florence is pretty amazing and ties into the Boboli Garden another commenter already mentioned. Have a wonderful trip!
https://www.uffizi.it/en/visit
Soprano2
@Steve in the ATL: Sorry, it’s two young guys. They were wondering what’s going to crash first. There was discussion about the Book of Revelation. On stage now getting arranged for the show.
Martin
@Southern Goth: To be fair, CA is also the 4th or 5th fastest growth state in the US, so we’re not exactly slacking here ourselves.
rekoob
@lamh36: @Steve in the ATL: Between “Prego” and “Grazie”, you’ll get a pretty good working conversation in Italy. For NYC, I’ll vote for:
City Sightseeing NYC
(full disclosure — I did their tour of Johannesburg in August)
Beyond that, TimeOut is perhaps a useful source:
New York
Milan
Venice
Florence
Rome
Happy Landings!
Martin
@Matt McIrvin: That’s largely true within the state. ‘I see homeless people’ is now a full replacement for actual crime.
They don’t want crime solved, they just don’t want to see homeless people.
Kay
I went to a Marcy Kaptur event tonight and she told us a story. Kaptur was doing “committee work” – D’s and R’s on the committee so contentious and stressful but also productive – they made progress. She went out to get some air and she sees this blonde woman coming down the stairs wearing really high heels- followed by a MOB of reporters. It was Marjorie Taylor Green.
No reporters at the committee meeting where they agreed to spend 62 billion dollars, but a “mob” of reporters following MTG as she performs for the cameras.
Reboot
@Steve in the ATL
@lamh36: I found saying ‘Sto imperando italiano’ (I’m learning Italian) to be better received than ‘Non parlo italiano’ (I don’t speak Italian). I figured that while I was there, I was learning Italian, if only by osmosis.
delphinium
@Kay:
Yuk-so disgusting and highlights just how much of our national political media sucks.
James E Powell
@Brachiator:
Who is doing that?
Origuy
Was in Rome in July. There’s a gelato shop near the Trevi Fountain that has 150 flavors. It’s on your right with the fountain behind you. I think it’s called The Gelatist. Trevi is packed night and day. I prefered the three fountains in the Piazza Navona and the area isn’t as crowded.
The drinking fountains in Rome, called nasone, run continuously and the water is delicious. Fill a bottle like the Romans do. The best pizza in Rome is claimed to be 50 Kalò di Ciro Salvo on Via Flavia. I can’t verify that but it’s damned good.
Prego and grazie will get you a long way. Scusi if you bump into someone, mi dispiace (mee dis pee A che) if you knock them over.
Brachiator
@Martin:
The California Business Roundtable argues in a recent press release that the Golden State is unlikely to pass Germany and only achieved its fifth-place spot due to “contraction of the UK economy in the wake of Brexit.”
More…
School enrollment is down. Much of this is due to the fact that young families cannot afford to live here even if they have good jobs. Californians are moving to other states not because they are hot to live in dumbest red states, but because the cost of living is pushing them out. Similarly, homelessness is increasing because the rent is too damn high.
persistentillusion
@Almost Retired: Uh, no, you flat land water thief! (Something that was actually said to a candidate I was working for. We were from Co Springs, the person speaking was from Divide, CO. The candidate, although qualified to speak on hydrodynamics, chose to not do so. the altitudinal difference is 6,300 ft abv sea level and 8700 ft.)
Eric S.
@Reboot: this seems like excellent advice for most anywhere. I’m studying French in anticipation of returning in the next few years. I’m keeping this in the trick bag.
Brachiator
@Baud:
The claim is that the bad news media is overstating the problem of inflation, that people are getting a false perception of the problem from media reporting. Despite evidence to the contrary, some keep beating this drum.
Now, I will certainly agree that Republicans try to bash Democrats about the economy without offering any solutions of their own, or lying about the effectiveness of what little they do offer. And I would agree that the media don’t challenge conservatives when they talk their weak shit.
But I maintain that reporting about the economy, as opposed to punditry and shallow summarizing, is very good.
Timill
@lamh36: “Due birre per favore. Il mio amico pagherà“
Sure Lurkalot
@lamh36: Too long since I’ve been to those places for specific recs like restaurants so: I remember good shopping in Florence, also consider day trip to Lucca. Rome, excellent pizza and gelato abounds.
You and your family have a fabulous trip! (Autocorrect tried to make “trip”, “strip”, which wasn’t the message I was going for).
Matt McIrvin
@lamh36: The last time I was in Italy was so long ago that I can’t give you much advice, but this trip sounds so good. I loved Florence particularly.
Cheryl from Maryland
@lamh36: as a 17thC European art historian, I recommend in Rome one of the fabulous and moving chapels by The painter Caravaggio. Either the Cerasi Chapel in the church of St. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Maria_del_PopoloMaria del popolo or the Contarelli Chapel in St. Luigi deli Francesi. Finally, anything by Bernini. I’m very fond of the Triton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontana_del_Tritone,_RomeFountain. Eat gelato and have fun!
Ruckus
@sab:
@Alison Rose:
I lived in Marin county 05-12. Owned a bicycle shop there. The recession was fun for a new business owner. Fuck GWB, his friends, his family, his political buddies, etc, etc.
Just in case anyone has any doubt, I HATE rethuglicans with the heat of a 1000 suns. They are never your friends, always your enemies, because they would rather you die than have to actually live in the same world. And they work as hard as their tiny little brains can to make sure that happens
One nice thing about Marin county when I lived there voter registration was 60% democrat.
Ruckus
@James E Powell:
I was born in Queen of Angels hospital in of course Los Angeles. I lived for a decade north east of Columbus, OH and I don’t believe the difference can be understood if one has not lived in 2 distinctly different worlds, such as CA and OH, or if one perpetually has their head up their exit orifice. The cultures are so wildly different one might think that they were in 2 different countries.
James E Powell
@Brachiator:
If California Democrats want to put Republicans back in power in the state, their failure to deal aggressively with homelessness is going to make that happen.
Madeleine
@lamh36: Following up on Ohio Mom’s link to the Weather Channel, I was out and about this afternoon in Midtown Manhattan wearing a sweater. For this time of year that or something a bit heavier when there’s a cool day is all you need—and perhaps an umbrella. It’s not winter.
Ruckus
@lamh36:
I haven’t been to Italy in 50 yrs but it was a hoot when I was there. Of course I have never been to the towns you are going to so I have even less to tell you. But it was enjoyable, most of the people were great, some, let’s just say a little less, the history was nice. I got to visit a lot of places in Europe, Spain, Greece, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, UK (10 minutes, I took out the trash during refueling at Portsmouth) It was all just a bit better than Vietnam, according to all the guys I know that made that trip
Also good to hear from you again.
prostratedragon
@Almost Retired: An inverse relationship between proximity to a Great Lake and niceness holds up pretty well, at least where cities are concerned.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Yep, too many people are completely lacking sympathy for their neighbors without street addresses. I hope it doesn’t f up too many mid-term races in Oregon.
The dehumanization of the homeless is a dangerous trend in our fascist-curious country.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
What do you suggest be done?
Here in my Oregon community, NIMBYism has been our #1 obstacle to establishing better services and low-income housing.
I understand that CA has been making positive changes that will still take time to change the situation. Such as forcing localities to approve construction of Additional Dwelling Units.
Brachiator
@James E Powell:
The sad thing is that Republicans would not do a damn thing about the homeless.
They would like to see the homeless stacked like cord wood in jails, but oppose the building of more prisons because they might blight their neighborhoods.
As noted, some developers are starting to apply an obscure law that mandates a certain amount of affordable housing in proportion to population growth.
jonas
@Almost Retired:
Actually in Germany, your taco would be up against the doner kebab, not sauerkraut. I for one would welcome a huge taco-doner showdown and would be happy to judge, even if it meant sampling the entries multiple times over multiple days…
YY_Sima Qian
The technology war between the US & China, & the unraveling of the intricate globe spanning technology supply chain that has taken decades to construct, will also have a structural inflationary effect for years to come. That is, if the US effort succeeds as intended.
La Nonna
@lamh36:
No advice re NYC, in Florence try to eat at Le Mossacce, a true workmen’s osteria, just off the Duomo, best authentic Tuscan food.
In Venice, turn your back on St Mark’s Square, go to the Fondamenta Nuova and catch the ferry to the out islands, particularly Torcello, to see the gorgeous small basilica encased in gold mosaic, all Venice high society gets married there, you’ll enjoy the short walk around to get an idea of old Venice life on the islands.. Murano and Burano pretty but touristy, Torcello is real.
Buon viaggio