Special Operations Forces of #UAarmy raise the flag of Ukraine in the liberated village of Nevske.
Step by step, we are liberating the region of Luhansk.
🎥 @SOF_UKR pic.twitter.com/oqEkEeDw4M— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 27, 2022
Іду на ви!/I Come At You!
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good evening, warriors of light!
Energetic people who are always ready to fight! Its 246th day is coming to an end.
We continue our resistance. The aggressor continues his terror. We are again attacked from the sky by a flock of their crows.
More than 30 drones were launched in two days. The defenders of our sky prevented the enemy’s vultures from breaking into the rear of the country and downed 23 Shaheds. In addition, the Kh-59 guided air missile, two Ka-52 attack helicopters and another Su-25 attack aircraft were turned into scrap metal. In total, during this period, Russia carried out 4,500 missile strikes and more than 8,000 air raids. But we are fighting, we will shoot down more.
I thank the guardians of our sky.
I am grateful to everyone who participated in the fundraising for the “catchers” of such “Shaheds”. Only on the U24 platform those are 665,000 people from 70 countries. Together, we will certainly clip the wings of all metal monsters, no matter how many of them and from where they fly in the direction of Ukraine. Enemy planes will fall. Enemy helicopters will fall. “Shaheds” will fall. It is only the Ukrainian people who will not fall! A heroic people who will definitely go down in world history. Actually, like this day. It is already history.
It’s already midnight on the clock. October 28 is already on the calendar. Every year on this day, we celebrate the liberation of Ukraine from the Nazi occupiers. We pay tribute to the Ukrainians who fought and defeated Nazism during World War II. Today we do it, holding not flowers in our hands, but weapons. Today, preserving the memory of the exploits of our ancestors means protecting their achievements. We remember the expulsion of the Nazis, approaching the expulsion of the Rashists.
Evil, which seemed to have been finally defeated and burned to the ground in 1945, is reborn from the ashes 80 years later. Gets on its feet. It becomes possible. How did it turn out? Imperceptibly. And very quickly. Just as one day changes another. Instantly. A new day and a new evil are coming instantly. At the very moment when the world does not notice. Some are sleepy, some are fast asleep. Some are not paying attention. Some do not care. And in general, everyone is silent and thinks the same: I will not be affected. The war is somewhere far away. Somewhere in Transnistria. This is the problem of Moldovans. Somewhere in Abkhazia and Ossetia. This is the problem of Georgians. Somewhere in Crimea and Donbas. This is the problem of Ukrainians. We will not be affected. It will not cause damage to us. They will not come for us. Unfortunately, as a result, it becomes everyone’s problem.
Sooner or later, memories of a terrible war become a terrible reality. The neighbor becomes the aggressor. The aggressor becomes a terrorist. And Nazism becomes an example to follow. It may come in a new guise, with new slogans, but with the same goal. Unfortunately, it is not from books that we know about it. We know how evil can break into your house in the last century, eight years ago and eight months ago. Violate the western borders or come from the north, east and annexed Crimea. Attack peaceful cities with bombs or cruise missiles.
Mine the Dnipro HPP or seize the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Drop bombs despite the red cross or the “Children” inscription. Steal grain according to the “Hunger Plan” or threaten the entire planet with hunger.
Abduct and deport people. Abduct and deport children. The form of evil has changed, but the essence has remained unchanged.
Evil always begins in the same way. The invaders call themselves liberators. The invasion of one’s army is called self-defense. As 80 years ago, the Ukrainian people stand up for the defense of their native land. And the enemy’s blitzkrieg plan becomes a failure.
Evil always acts in the same way. Kills civilians, assuring that it hits military targets only. Arranges blockades and filtration camps. And Syrets becomes Olenivka. Destroys cities and villages. And Koryukivka becomes Bucha.
But sooner or later war crimes become known. The reaction of the world becomes painful. The policy of appeasement becomes a tough countermeasure.
The evil finds itself in a zugzwang.
So evil always ends the same way. The occupier becomes a capitulator. The invader becomes a fugitive. War criminals become defendants, aggression becomes a sentence. Destruction becomes reparations. Enemy equipment becomes museum exhibits. The feats of grandfathers become the victories of grandchildren.
The day of the liberation of Ukraine from the Nazis on the 247th day of our struggle becomes a symbol: the result of our struggle definitely becomes the liberation of our Ukraine. The captured territory becomes free. This has always been the case in the past, and will certainly be the case in the future. In the future of Kherson, Donbas, Luhansk, Crimea. Because our land always becomes free. Resistance becomes pride. Struggle becomes victory. And Ukraine becomes united!
Today, Russia’s only tactic has become terror. Defeat is the only possible outcome of such tactics. Terror became a proof of their weakness and a test of our resilience.
We will not be broken by shelling. The enemy’s rockets in our sky are less scarier than hearing the enemy’s anthem on our land. We are not afraid of the dark.
The darkest times for us are not without light, but without freedom. Our warriors are strong, volunteers are tireless, partners are reliable, and people are indomitable.
The second army of the world will become smaller and smaller. The losses of the enemy will become bigger and bigger. I am confident that enemy propaganda does not work, provocations do not work, threats do not scare. Any hard winter will not scare us as well.
We know that the darkest night comes before dawn. We know that all invaders flee our land in the same way. Gauleiters and self-appointed “governors” end up the same.
Reichskommissariats and quasi-republics die equally. And all our cities will definitely have our flags. Both Junkers and kamikaze drones fall equally. And in our sky there will definitely be our birds, our blue sky, our “Mriya”!
Glory to all who fought against Nazism during World War II! Glory to all who are fighting for Ukraine today!
Glory to our people who will go down in history!
Glory to Ukraine!
In contrast, Putin gave another batshit crazy speech today. The Financial Times‘ Moscow Bureau Chief Max Seddon has the details:
Putin's big foreign policy speech is underway.
He accuses the west of "escalating" tensions worldwide by "fanning the flames of war in Ukraine, provocations in Taiwan," and creating the global food crisis. pic.twitter.com/GmzdP4u82f
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 27, 2022
This has quickly descended into a long rant about cancel culture.
"Everything that happens in the world is because of the hand of the Kremlin.Are we really so all-powerful? This is nonsense! Stop blaming everything on us!"
But Dostoevsky, Tchaikovsky, and Pushkin will live on.
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 27, 2022
"Russia is not challenging the western elite. We are not trying to become the hegemon," Putin says. He says Russia only wants to "defend its right to exist" and "won't let itself be destroyed and wiped off the geopolitical map."
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 27, 2022
Alexander Prokhanov, the KGB-aligned novelist, is here! His TV appearances are a bellwether for how far into ultranationalism the Kremlin wants to go. He tells Putin Russia should make the “religion of justice” its state ideology pic.twitter.com/ga6Ja1rONI
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 27, 2022
I just want to take a moment here and focus not so much on the words of Putin’s address and his answers to questions, but to what is actually going on. Putin is doing what we’ve discussed here all too often over the past seven years (we really need to get lives…), which is using the social learning/social behavioral techniques known as neutralization. From my 9 AUG 2016 post:
In the 1950s Sykes and Matza put forth a variant of social learning theory called neutralization and drift. Their intention was to clarify the social behavioral pathway that leads to delinquency, deviance, and crime. Sykes and Matza theorized that delinquency, deviancy, and crime are based on justifications that are used to rationalize behavior. And they called these justifications the techniques of neutralization, which allow one to drift into crime, deviance, and delinquency. Or in the cases we’re interested in extremism, terrorism, and/or mass violence. They are divided into five types of neutralization: 1) denial of responsibility; 2) denial of injury; 3) denial of victim; 4) condemnation of the condemners; and the 5) appeal to higher loyalties. The first three justifications all deal with denial. They allow the offender to rationalize his behavior as outside of his control. He or she is not really hurting anyone. And even if someone is hurt they may have deserved it. The fourth justification allows the offender to invert the knowledge of her wrongdoing back upon those criticizing it by asserting that the condemners are hypocrites, do equally bad things, or are out to get her. Finally, the fifth rationalization allows for the justification of behavior on the basis of loyalty to one’s group rather than one’s society.
What Putin is trying to do, aside from reasserting the fictionalized history and embellished mythology of Russia, the Russian people, Russian Orthodox Christianity that he has adopted and then contributed to, is provide anyone willing to listen to him uncritically the justifications for beginning to or continuing to support him, to stop supporting Ukraine, and to blame the US. Putin hit all five techniques of neutralization over and over and over in his rant today. And, unfortunately, there are far too many people that will listen to him uncritically. Especially when he’s amplified by the likes of Greenwald, Mate, Blumenthal, Gabbard, Trump, Carlson, Greene, Massie, Gaetz, and the other fellow travelers and useful idiots.
Putin’s remarks are also aimed at white Evangelical Christians in the US:
It's time for Christians in every country to come to the aid of the Russians.
— Rick Wiles (@realRickWiles) October 26, 2022
If you want to see him expand on this, there’s video at this link.
Here’s the ADL’s description of Wiles:
TruNews is a fundamentalist Christian streaming news and opinion platform that has increasingly featured anti-Semitic and anti-Zionist content, and also has a long record of disseminating radical Islamophobic and anti-LGBTQ messages. Founded in 1999 by Rick Wiles and affiliated with Flowing Streams Church in Vero Beach, FL, where Wiles is senior pastor, TruNews was previously known as America’s Hope, American Freedom News, and briefly as Christian News Channel.
TruNews programming generally consists of Rick Wiles and one or more cohosts or guests praying, reading biblical passages, discussing current events, talking breathlessly about the “End Times” and asking for money. Wiles and his guests frequently espouse extreme conspiracy theories, including alleging that the U.S. government planned to spread the Ebola virus on U.S. soil, that the U.S. and Israel created ISIS and that “western intelligence agencies” were training ISIS soldiers, and that mass shootings are false flag operations carried out by “super-secret covert killing teams” as a way of rallying public support for eliminating the Second Amendment and for “capitulat[ing] to a globalist agenda.”
Wiles was accredited by the Trump administration as part of the presidential press corps. And he knows exactly what he’s doing in terms of rhetoric. He used to be an advertising and marketing executive until he was born again.
Wiles is a conduit to mainstream Putinism directly into white Evangelical Christians in the US.
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Kherson:
KHERSON/ 26-27 OCT/ UKR art’y continues to target barge bridge/ferry ops adjacent to the M-14 HWY. RU video footage from 26-27 OCT shows hits and 2ndry explosions on RU equipment and ordinance. UKR Partisans /SOF are suspected in a 26 OCT attack on an RU-staffed police station. pic.twitter.com/JEIwVRk5Vb
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 27, 2022
Tallyho!
Video of low-flying Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft flying over Ukrainian troops.https://t.co/vqtUAD9W9M pic.twitter.com/QguDzj6W1q
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 27, 2022
Lord, guard and guide the men who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)
Petroleum facility go boom!
The oil depot in Russian occupied-Shakhtarsk, Ukraine 🇺🇦 is on fire 🔥 pic.twitter.com/YfAspYXfam
— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) October 26, 2022
NO PLACE TO HIDE: Necro Mancer@666_mancer reports on a UKR strike on a RU fuel depot at Shakhtarsk, deep in occupied Donetsk. This facility was more that 60Km (36 miles) from the front. UKR Partisans & deeply inserted SOF provide updated targeting data on lucrative RU targets. https://t.co/Ek1Hau3nnf pic.twitter.com/6nVNAprTUS
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 27, 2022
Іду на ви!/I Come At You!
How’s the mobilization going?
A 46-year-old from Magadan was mobilized and deployed to Ukraine despite such serious knee arthrosis that he struggled to walk. https://t.co/YvykkL0Rqo pic.twitter.com/40oJj6X5LC
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 27, 2022
Maybe Meduza has better news to report?
Colonel General Alexander Lapin, commander of the Russian army group Center in Ukraine, used a pistol to personally threaten the commander of a mobilized unit, which retreated from the front lines without orders. One conscript from Moscow spoke about it as part of an official complaint, reports outlet Sota. The publication didn’t name the man but writes that they know his name, and that they have copies of his complaint and his call-up papers, which he sent the outlet.
The Moscow resident was mobilized on September 22, and was already in Ukraine on October 7. According to Sota, he received a rusty gun and no training “apart from one day of shooting practice.” He and his fellow conscripts were sent to an area near the city of Svatove in the annexed Luhansk region. They were under fire for at least a day and a half, as a result of which no fewer than 10 men were killed. The Moscow man and his fellow conscripts decided to retreat to Svatove to get new orders.
“Since there were no officers or command, we set ourselves the task of finding headquarters and asking about further actions. We were standing at a refueling station when Colonel General Lapin came up to us with his personal security detail. When he found out about the situation with the retreat, he held his pistol to Lieutenant V’s head, the commander of the fifth company, and ordered us to go back [to the front]. He also addressed a number of insults at us (traitors, deserters, and a lot of more offensive words),” says the complaint.
Not so much…
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That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Another Scott
Cheers,
Scott.
Alison Rose
“come to the aid of the russians”
I WANT TO SCREAM. Ugh. I had only seen a few lines here and there from putin’s argle-bargle. With all of it, good Lord, he really is fucking insane. And so full of shit I’m surprised he’s ambulatory. I wanna ship a case of Metamucil to the Kremlin.
What a contrast with Zelenskyy in every way. His address tonight had me in tears by this part:
I know he writes most or even all of his own speeches, and it’s just incredible that he can come up with such powerful and stirring words in the midst of all this. putin may think he’s projecting strength and power, but he’s really showing weakness. Zelenskyy and other Ukrainians are the one demonstrating real power every day.
Also the Shark looks cool.
Thank you as always, Adam.
WV Blondie
I do not have the words to express the depth of my appreciation for your posts every night. Slava Ukraini! (I hope I spelled that right.)
Medicine Man
While I don’t have much hope our local Putin-simps will ever see justice, I am nevertheless going to enjoy watching Putin himself eat s**t.
Gin & Tonic
In the last sentence Patron is saying “To all a stylish lick!”
Ken
@Another Scott: Later he (Darth Putin) said,
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: Ukrainians say that cutting electricity to the cities just means, in nine months, more Ukrainians.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: LOLOL!!! Perfecto.
Splitting Image
I have a feeling that if the Christians he is addressing this to were to make their way to Ukraine, the Russians might end up preferring the conscripts who can barely walk. These guys idolize a man who used a golf cart to follow the rest of the G-7 leaders down a street.
Anoniminous
During the Phony War aka “Sitzkreig” the Belgians spent the time denying reality, the French spent their time mostly doing nothing*, the British spent the time making elaborate plans for what they would do when they had an army to do it with, and the Germans spent the time training, building unit cohesion, and turning civilians into soldiers. At the beginning the German Heer was no better than the motley crew facing them, by the end the Germans were ready for war.
The Russians have breathing space to take their rabble and turn them into something approximating soldiers.
Hopefully they won’t use it productively.
* and doing it Very Well!
Gin & Tonic
@Splitting Image: I wonder if he’s aware that the vast majority of Ukrainians are Christians too – and none of the leaders of the various denominations are warmongers.
Gin & Tonic
Incidentally, that slogan, “I come at you!” is attributed to Prince Svyatoslav the Brave, who ruled Kyivan Rus’ in the mid 10th Century. I should write up a post about him – he was the son of Ihor and Olha, who were the founders of the Ryurikid dynasty. You may have heard something about Olha, who has legends of her own – she ruled Rus’ after the death of Ihor, while Svyatoslav was a child.
kalakal
The Russians are beyond scraping the bottom of the manpower barrel
They shipped a lame near 50 year old nearly 11,000 km, without training to man the front lines.
Magadan is the other side of Mongolia, Sarah Palin can probably see it from her house
Tony G
@Medicine Man: Putin-simps on the so-called “left” as well as on the right. I’m seriously curious whether the ones on the “left” are being paid off, or whether they’re just idiots. Probably both, I suppose.
oldster
Musk has completed the purchase of twitter, and is now firing most if not all of the top execs.
I do not think this is going to go well. It will probably go badly for musk. I‘m afraid it will go badly for the rest of us.
Medicine Man
@Tony G: I could write volumes on what I think of the talkie-adjacent types. They want to see the decline of “The West” and don’t care what third parties have to suffer to make it happen. They are not honest about any of this, preferring to cloak their accelerationist wishes in puddle-deep moral sanctimony.
Anoniminous
No idea what the words mean but it’s a fun tune and honors the women serving in the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Русі коси (Blonde Braids)
Tony G
@kalakal: Hitler was doing that — conscripting young teenagers and old men — during the months that led up to him blowing his brains out. Putin doesn’t strike me, however, as someone who would go out the same way. I expect that he’ll try to do something to save his hide and his wealth — if he can.
Geminid
@Medicine Man: A lot of Tankie World is very cult-like, with a lot of mentally and morally sick people.
Alison Rose
@kalakal: putin cares so much about his people
NotMax
Regarding the virulent pustule leading the Russian Orthodox Church, lest we forget —
Rape? Murder? Kidnapping? Pillage? Torture? Genocide? Not so much as paltry problems, impunity is automatic.
dr. luba
@Anoniminous: It’s a folk song about blonde braids, and has nothing to do with war or fighting women per se…..
I’m walking down the street
Causing nice guys trouble,
I don’t look at them
And I do not lead with my eye!
I will shine like a star
I will turn into a swan,
And when the moon shines
You will dream of me!
Chorus:
Blonde braids, like a mown meadow,
Bathed in lovage,
And they have a love potion,
The taste is golden.
Don’t look me in the eye, |
Kozak, close up, |
Because you will forget everything in the world
And you will only be mine! | (2)
A star fell into the grass
Not in a dream, but in reality
I will weave into my braids
Field flowers.
Like a forest mavka (nymph),
I will find the words,
A nightingale
Will sing a song about love!
Chorus. (2)
Because you will forget everything in the world
And you will only be mine!
kalakal
@Tony G: I can’t speak of personal knowledge of the US variant but I knew a few people in England for whom the following was axiomatic.
Everything bad in International affairs was America’s fault
Everything bad in International affairs was the UKs fault
All UK Prime Ministers were American lapdogs/poodles
Except when they weren’t: they were doing bad things internationally under their own agency
Russia was always the victim
Crimea has been Russian since before Stonehenge was built
The worst were very authoritarian & doctrinaire ( & yes some were idealogues – a lecturer at my university was exposed as a STASI agent years after the GDR collapsed – he was totally unrepentant, thought the wrong side won the Cold War), I’m sure some were paid. The vast majority were/are naive idealists, most of these now rank Putin as a bad thing but still think America/NATO/ the west are also evil.
The real hard liners are the same authoritarian cultists they always were but instead of belonging to groups like the IMG ( International Marxist Group) have reinvented themselves as Libertarians and were prominent advisers to Flobalob.
Intellectual consistency was never their strong point but antipathy toward the US & the West generally is a constant part of the dogma
bbleh
That kind of action IN Kherson? Mass withdrawals by RU of both civilians and troops, defensive lines on the other side of the river, fortifications that remind one of Berlin in the last days of the Nazis? Is there a pool on how long before they abandon it completely?
And perhaps more importantly, isn’t the loss of Kherson going to loom rather large in the, ah, dialogue among the Russian leadership? Might indeed there be some hints of flexibility in some of the remarks Putin made? Might he be preparing the underground monorail for evacuation to the secret rocket-ship base and the flight to safety (metaphorically speaking)? And of course, might he also be thinking about something foolishly demonstrative (although some of his remarks seem to downplay that)? I just have this sneaking suspicion that things may be reaching a crisis point …
Or maybe not. Mud season is coming. Yech.
Gin & Tonic
@NotMax: Kirill is what they’d call, in New Jersey, “a piece of work.”
zhena gogolia
@Another Scott: That’s about the size of it.
Anoniminous
@dr. luba:
Thanks for the translation.
Funny thing about soldier’s songs is some of the most favorite WW 2 songs that soldiers actually sang had little to do with patriotic BS but were about home and women: Katyusha, Lilly Marlene, Erika —- off the top of my head.
bbleh
@oldster: I think Musk got taken to the cleaners, and I would not be surprised if many of said executives (who no doubt held substantial stock positions) were more than happy to go.
Twitter is becoming a sewer. You can get lots of useful stuff out of a sewer if you have the equipment and the patience, but it’s still a sewer.
Yet another example of technology outpacing social development. But we’ve more or less dealt with TV, and the Bomb, so we can probably deal with this, in time.
dmsilev
@bbleh: If he was in it for the money, he massively overpaid for Twitter. No question about that. If he doesn’t mind taking the loss in exchange for being able to bring Trump and every other frothing maniac the Internet can hork up back to Twitter, well then sucks for the rest of us doesn’t it.
Tony G
@Anoniminous: Horny, lonely young men dreaming of women. Makes sense.
Michael R
There’s routinely reports of drones downed, but what is the context for drone losses? Do individual drones matter, or is it a ’send 100, and if 10 get through, it’s a win’ type of thing?
I can’t tell if this is a loss, or just the cost of running a war.
Anoniminous
@oldster:
Musk paid way too much for a business that is on the skids. Twitter is losing the their users that provided 90% of the traffic and most of the ad revenue.
Tony G
@Gin & Tonic: I don’t even try to understand Evangelicals. They’re a lot more rigid and insane than Catholics (which is saying a lot) and, unlike the Catholic hierarchy, who go through a formal “education” in the Church’s dogma, Evangelical are generally semi-literate morons who are as dumb as the proverbial bag of hammers. And, of course, they hate everyone who is not exactly like them. Needless to say, there are tens of millions of those yahoos in this country.
Bill Arnold
@NotMax:
There’s this, too. (Full thread at link) It was a one-time thing due to lack of a basin[1], but still. I guess it’s not a Satanic Ritual if performed by a (Russian Orthodox?) archpriest. I mean, the baptism is doctrinally OK (if, uhm, unorthodox), but the “ammunition box”?
[1] “@ChrisO_wiki Oct 26 3/ A basin was needed for the ritual, but it was not available at the unit. Instead, the archpriest decided to use a plastic bag for “cargo 200″. He even saw a certain symbolism of death and life in this.” [2]
[2] Tweet led to this image of [President Putin/Patriarch Kirill ?]: https://twitter.com/JohnronP/status/1585243603244548104
sdhays
@dmsilev: He was in it for the stupidity. I’m not sure what some of his institutional backers hope to get out of it. Everyone is going to lose a lot of money on this deal.
That, at least, will be cause for celebration.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: The Shark is on my list of gifts I want for Hanukkah
Adam L Silverman
@WV Blondie: You are most welcome.
Tony G
@kalakal: Yeah, that sounds about right. Back in my long-ago college days (in the mid-seventies) I knew some kids like that. (Without exception, I think, they were from upper-middle-class families. My own father was a union electrician and supported the Democratic Party as the lesser among evils.). I haven’t met people like that since I got out of college and started working for a living. (I have, however, worked with many immigrants from Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact countries, who took a pretty dim view of the leadership of their former homelands.). I figured that these type of pro-Russia clowns had faded away after the Soviet Union collapsed 31 years ago, but I guess they’ve resurrected themselves (or have been replaced by Millennial/Gen-Z people) for whom the new party line is something like “Putin is bad, but the United States is worse”. Chris Hedges, for whom I once had some respect, seems to be a guy around my age who is in that camp. Politics aside, it annoys me that Hedges is constantly humble-bragging about his years as a war correspondent that led him to realize that WAR IS BAD. Hedges, please. I had relatives (now deceased) who fought in Hurtgen Forest and the Battle of the Bulge and who survived Auschwitz — but they didn’t talk about it all goddamn day.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Fixed.
dr. luba
@Anoniminous: Ukraine has partisan songs from WWI and WWII–sung by the Sichovi Striltsi and UPA. Here they’re covered by Taras Chubay and Plach Yeremiyi.
They’re about fighting; in both cases the Ukrainian were the underdogs…..this time around, we have a country and organized military.
Geminid
Yesterday’s Washington Post had a long article about Yevgeniy Prigozhin. Among his life’s lowlights was a humble beginning as a Leningrad dog vendor followed by 9 years in prison for robbery and other crimes.
Prigozhin bounced back and co-founded casinos and a floating restaurant “where he personally served Putin, then Russia’s new president, as well as President George W. Bush.”
Although he only recently acknowledged his role, Prigozhin founded the Wagner Group in 2014 in order to support Russian backed separatists “in their effort to seize control of the Donbass region of Ukraine.”
This spring the US sanctioned Prigozhin over the Wagner Group’s role in the war, but-
Calouste
@Anoniminous: Musk also doesn’t have any experience in what it takes to keep a system the scale of Twitter running, and he’s either getting rid of the people who do or they’re running off themselves (they’ll get easily hired somewhere else).
Such systems are very complex, and things go wrong all the time, it’s just if there’s a good team, they can catch most of it. Twitter will become less stable and reliable, and users will switch over to something that isn’t down every week.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Write it up, send it to me, and I’ll post it as a guest post from you. If you’d like to. No pressure.
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: Ooh, I was just gonna ask for some new slippers, but now you’ve got me thinking.
BruceFromOhio
I wish I had this strength.
Geminid
@Michael R: The Shahed-136 kamikaze drone is pretty cheap I think.* A truck mounted launcher carries five and they are intended to be fired in salvos so as to defeat air defenses. They can fly low, with a top speed of about a hundred miles an hour. Preset GPS coordinates guide them to their targets, and they carry a 40 kilogram warhead.
Another Iranian supplied drone, the Mojaher-6, is more expensive. These are similar to the Turkiyesh Bayraktar, and carry four guided munitions each powerful enough to knock out a tank. They take off and land like airplanes, whereas the Shaheds are launched with a rocket assist unit that drops away after the drone is airborne
* I read that the Shahed’s body and delta wing are made of plastic-infused cardboard for low cost and light weight. I guess that would strong enough for a one way flight.
Bill Arnold
@Calouste:
I seriously doubt they’re planning to get rid of those engineers (retention is another story), though bringing in software people from Tesla to review code is interesting. (Guessing that’s probably just reviewing resiliency designs and designs of other automation.)
More worried about Musk’ s lackeys fucking stupidly with the moderation automation/network analysis/etc on his orders, and/or firing all the moderation. That would rapidly turn Twitter entirely unusable except for trolling, influence operations, fraud, and similar. If it turned into a N-chan with a prettier UI, it would need to be destroyed. (Do-able.)
Heidi Mom
@Alison Rose: He (Zelensky) really put his heart and soul into that one.
Quiltingfool
@Tony G:
This. In my neck of the woods, in order to be a “preacher” you simply have to declare that “God spoke to me and told me to share the Gospel.” This works in itty bitty backwoods churches, not so much in the larger churches.
Shoot, I learned more about the Bible and Christian doctrine as a child in Sunday School than these yahoos. But I’m certainly not going to be preaching! They wouldn’t let me anyway, ‘cause I’m a girl.
For the well-being of the world, I do believe that Mr. Wiles and the Russian Patriarch should be called home. The quicker the better.
Of course, home “could” be a very hot place.
Ken
“And that Gospel says I deserve a private jet” frequently follows.
Sister Golden Bear
@Adam L Silverman: the shark drone is a bit over my budget, but may I interest you in a nice Blåhaj instead. Trans tested, trans approved.
Shalimar
@oldster: I love that Musk’s grand vision is a do-everything app like the Chinese have. If such a superapp were possible and profitable here, Facebook would have done it instead of pumping all of their profits into VR.
Barbara
@oldster:
Think of it this way — he just funded their retirement by paying them extravagantly for all the shares of Twitter they no doubt owned when he made his offer.
Michael R
Thanks @Geminid.
Poking around I find Shaded’s are ordered in the thousands and cost €20,000 to €50,000 each. So losing these seems acceptable. And Iran is supplying them to Russia, so that’s just a commercial transaction. I guess the limit is foreign reserves, but oil is selling so
I can’t find anything on cost of a Mojaher, but I found Bayraktar price of “about US$2 million (£1.78 million) each“, so I’ll assume it’s similar. which would mean a Mojaher is 35 to 90 times the price of a Shaded. Which seems… expensive? Especially since they only have 4 missiles.
I assume drones are a cheap way of blowing things up. And that shooting them down is more about stopping the harm than depleting reserves.
OverTwistWillie
glc
@Geminid: Some discussion of costs here.
Doesn’t cover the Mohajer-6 in financial terms at all.
Aussie Sheila
@Tony G: Yes I know what you mean. My test for a serious lefty is their understanding of the link between workplace power and state power. If all you have to say is ‘everyone sux, they are all the same’, I tune out right away.
An inability to seek and find avenues to build power, and an ignorance of the history of various kinds of imperialisms, including Russian revanchism, as well as US ‘exceptionalism’, screams dipshit.
At bottom, I think it is a matter of liking to be against something as an identity, rather than being for something as an activity.
Regardless, I still can’t believe otherwise thoughtful people who think time spent defending Putin and his regime shows how ‘serious’ they are, as opposed to the ‘shit libs’, who hate both Putin and US imperialism, but support democratic activity as a means of defeating both.
Politics as a form of aesthetics.
Ugh.
Carlo Graziani
I think I’m beginning to hear a…pleading note entering Putin’s speeches? Could that be?
He’s scared. He wants a deal.
The West (includes Ukraine) should keep administering the stick, to keep him scared, while having diplomats and spies secretly feed him scraps of carrot peel, to give him hope. In the end, he’ll be grateful for a deal that gets the Russian army out of Ukraine while guaranteeing the internationally-recognized borders. Because he’ll believe that will allow him to preserve his power.
Michael R
@glc: that article was part of my thinking. I’m curious about the value proposition to Ukraine. From the article:
…so about $170K per drone. Is this a plausible ROI for Ukraine? It feels like drone strikes could average out causing $170+K in damages, even before adding in human costs. (Russia is forcing some up-front costs, whereas repairs could be delayed.)
bookworm1398
Does anyone know how religious people in Russia are? I find this holy war talk pretty surreal, but maybe not to many?
Carlo Graziani
@kalakal: I’ve sometimes wondered about the sociology of the English (British? UK-ish? It seems like a mostly English phenomenon, but perhaps my resolution is off) left-wing upper class. What you’re describing seems to be the same aversion to “crassness” of Western capitalism, principally exemplified by the US, and far more than actual ideology, that famously drove a number of privileged Etonians/Cantabridgians such as Philby, Maclean, etc. into the embrace of Soviet intelligence.
It seems like a very fashionable and durable intellectual trend, that survives major upheavals in political philosophy. I suppose it must ultimately be driven by a visceral aversion to the US. What do you suppose drives that aversion, as a historically continuous phenomenon?
Chetan Murthy
I think JMM has it right here. Sadly the article is paywalled, but here’s the key graf.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-to-see-the-ukraine-letter-imbroglio
”
How to See the Ukraine Letter Imbroglio”
Anoniminous
@Calouste:
As far as I can tell Elon has blown $44 billion on a mature business with no upside potential, with declining revenue growth, and has had only two profitable years in its history: 2018 and 2019. Elon doesn’t have the chops to turn the place around.
If I worked at Twitter I’d sell my stocks and stock options and get out of there so fast you couldn’t see my arse for the dust.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Chetan Murthy: here is a gift link
Frankensteinbeck
@Chetan Murthy:
While that is the argument, it in turn relies on utterly bullshit foundations, such as expansion of NATO being any threat to Russia unless Russia… invaded a European state. Since there is no believable way NATO would ever directly attack Russia, but Russia has proven in Ukraine that they will attack anybody NATO doesn’t defend, it’s a wholesale reversal of reality argument. But one you have, yes, correctly identified from what I have heard them say.
As for the OP, shock twist, malicious asshole lies and victim blames exactly the way abusers have for all of history. Hardcore crazies with ulterior motives eat it up.
Chetan Murthy
@Frankensteinbeck: I excerpted only JMM’s deconstruction of the argument. For sure, he agrees with you, and I hope that comes thru in the excerpt.
Mallard Filmore
Only China, Russia, and maybe, MAYBE, the USA should have secure borders. Everyone else must tremble at our roar.
Citizen Alan
@Splitting Image: With regard to these specific “Christians,” I basically agree with eversor. Evangelical Christianity for the most part represents a heretical death cult cold that shits on the message of Jesus Christ.
kalakal
@Carlo Graziani: It’s definitely more of an English thing and I’d say is more of a middle/ upper middle class thing (English Tankies tend to be the children of academics/ lawyers/doctors rather than aristos – the English class structure is insanely nuanced). Historically the British socialist working class tradition is gradualist and incrementalist, they mostly loathe Communists, they owe more to Robert Owen than Marx ( who spent a lot his own intellectual energy on trying to distance himself from his own debt to Owen)*. (Not) surprisingly in my experience many self proclaimed saviours of the workers are actually pretty uncomfortable around working class people. They’re really pretty snobbish, intellectually, socially & culturally, after all a revolutionary vanguard is by definition a self selecting elite. Historically they have tended to be a set of cliques more interested in internicine idealogical warfare than actually building a mass movement ( the Monty Python Judean Peoples Popular Front scene is devastatingly accurate). You’re right about the visceral aversion to the US. It would take a lot of verbiage to really go into it so I’ll bullet point a few of the drivers
There’s plenty more but I have to stop somewhere. I’m generalising a lot but I think a significant amount of English Tankie anti-Americanism is as you say visceral, of course they can’t admit that and hide it in pseudo intellectual, self justifying verbiage
*Marx called his movement Communism rather than Socialism so that people wouldn’t associate it with his forebears such as Owen
Geminid
@Michael R: The Mojaher drone’s value is that it can be flown for multiple missions, and the operators can select targets of opportunity. The Shahed is preprogramed to accurately hit a GPS coordinate. I’ve read that the Mojaher can be used to coordinate Shahed attacks, by loitering above a target zone and relaying new coordinates to the low flying Shaheds.
Iran’s drone production capacity is unknown, but it is a large country with a decent industrial base, much of which has been directed to weapons production. So it may be able to keep Russia restocked with drones, especially the Shahed, for a while.
Ukraine has adapted to the threat and their kill rate should improve. The Shahed can be knocked down bullets and small automatic cannon fire so these less expensive means can be used. Advanced electro optic fire control can make these systems very accurate.
There is an Israeli made system that is reported to be in use now by Ukraine. It’s a large caliber rifle carried by a quadcopter drone (it can also be mounted on a small plane). An electro opitical system aided by artificial Intelligence is supposed to make it a “one shot, one kill” anti-drone weapon. I read that the Dutch have purchased them, and the US and Indian armies have tested them for possible procurement.
Reports are that these “SMASH” systems were exported by the Israeli manufacturer to Poland with the permission of the Defense Ministry. Both knew they would be transferred to Ukraine. This was to get around the government’s stated policy of not supplying weapons to Ukraine.
HeartlandLiberal
I am sending a link to this post to several of my friends, even my far right brothers in Alabama, as an example of THE BEST reporting on the war in Ukraine available. You will not find anything in the traditional media to match the depth and breadth of coverage Adam Silverman’s reporting on this criminal war. Also posting a link on Twitter. FWIW, since Musk has taken over. Don’t know how much longer Twitter has to survive.
Geminid
@Geminid: Reports s that Iran would supply drones to Russia began with a briefing by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on the eve of President Biden’s trip to the Middle East in July. Some were of the opinion that Sullivan was just beating the anti-Iran drum to distract from controversies aabout Biden’s visits to Israel and Saudi Arabia. Also, talks of a new JCPOA that would restrict Iran’s nuclear program had hit an impasse and Sullivan’s briefing might have bolstered the US position, although the US has maintained the talks did not hinge on Iranian actions outside its nuclear program.
It turned out that Sullivan’s briefing was accurate, and Iran has supplied the “hundred” of drones he forecast. At the time analysts said they would not be a “gamechanger” or strategically decisive. That prediction was also true, but the drones can and have inflicted real losses on the Ukrainian armed forces and its civilians, and done substantial damage to electrical infrastructure.
They have also damagd Iran’s image. Iran cares enough that their Foreign Ministry still denies Iranian drones are used in Ukraine, but that only discredits the Foreign Ministry.
Iran’s regime has chosen to partner with Russia for what they deem their security interests. Also, the drone manufacturers have close connections to higher military and civilian officials, so influential people profit from the sales. The sales may further erode popular support, but the Iranian regime seems determined to ride out the current wave of protests that continue unabated after six weeks.
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid:
Technically, the very carefully-worded statement of the Iranian foreign ministry is that they have not sold drones to Russia “for use in Ukraine.” It’s more a disavowal of responsibility than a denial of reality. It’s a transparent falsehood in any event, but diplomats care about such fig leaves, even in Iran.
glc
@Michael R: Incidentally there was also a report that Venezuela spent $28 million for the manufacture of 12 drones of something like Mohajer-6 type but it was speculated this was a cover for something as the price was unreasonable. That may also have been referenced in one of the articles mentioned. Only glanced at it.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@kalakal: Thanks for the great summary. I think John le Carré’s character Bill Haydon personifies this attitude.
Geminid
@glc: Iran produces larger drones than the Mojahar. Maybe the Venezuelans were buying 12 of them. Or maybe there were larger than usual kickbacks. The purchase price could also have included a lot of the smart ordinance the drones carry.
Iran captured an American RQ-170 Sentinel drone in 2011 and have since produced and flown a knock off named the Saegheh. The Sentinel is a “stealthy” flying wing that looks like a small B-2 bomber. Reports are that the Israelis downed a Saegheh over Syria in 2018, and recovered it for study.
kalakal
@Mr. Bemused Senior: Thanks. That’s spot on. Le Carre knew a lot of them.
Jinchi
@Gin & Tonic: If there’s anything I’ve learned from rightwingers, it’s that you don’t count as a Christian, unless you’re their kind of Christian.
Carlo Graziani
@kalakal: Oddly, I was also thinking of Le Carré, while I was reading your excellent summary.
Another bullet, which I cannot recall the provenance of, but relates to your third, is a willingness to see the UK as playing a role analogous to Greece of antiquity with respect to the US’s neo-Roman Empire — an older, wiser culture whose civilizing influence on the brash, powerful upstart could serve to counter its own decline.
kalakal
@Carlo Graziani: Yes, I missed that one. British politicians love to harp on about ‘the special relationship’ and many in English political life see themselves as Solon like figures to US leaders eg MacMillan & Kennedy, which is why events like Suez were such a shock.
The 2 countries are close but the smarter UK politicians realise that it’s not a blank cheque and know when to trim. This leads to a lot of the accusations of being America’s lapdog. Both countries have and do act towards each other on occasions in the sense of doing the other a favour that may run against their own self interest. eg Reagan burnt a lot of US bridges in South America by providing logistical & intelligence support during the Falklands War
The 4th bullet is probably the one I’ve heard expressed most