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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 249: Life Imitates Art

War for Ukraine Day 249: Life Imitates Art

by Adam L Silverman|  October 30, 20229:44 pm| 54 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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Once upon a time there lived bees who peacefully collected honey, built combs, did not bother anyone. Along came a bear, and with his enormous paw tried to steal their honey. Now, the bear is upset that he is being stung by HIMARS.
Photo: Hannibal Hanschkу pic.twitter.com/BBi2dMCc6J

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 30, 2022

I just had a baking project go kablooey! So I’m going to keep this short and sweet tonight. I know I promised to answer a question about who is providing support to the Ukrainians regarding winter gear, but it’ll have to wait till tomorrow night. Also, I am thrilled that a number of you are comfortable enough to fill in the gaps in the comments with things I’ve either not seen yet or am tracking but not ready to post on yet. But please, if I put it in the post you don’t need to put it in the comments. To sum up: read the post before you comment. Thanks!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

I held a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief today – the 27th since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia.

Key defense issues were considered: our active actions on the frontline, further liberation of the territory from occupation, supply of ammunition and equipment, repair of equipment, other support for the defense forces, as well as preparations for winter. Of course, the plans of the Russian military were also considered.

The Commander-in-Chief, head of intelligence, commanders of operational directions, ministers delivered reports.

Every day and without any breaks, we work to speed up the restoration of the territorial integrity of our state. And always at the meeting of the Staff we celebrate the successes of our warriors, the result ensured in the liberation of Ukrainian land. Every time we have reasons to rejoice together with all Ukrainians.

Following this week, I would like to celebrate the warriors of the 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after Hetman Ivan Mazepa, the 5th Separate Assault Regiment and the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade for their bravery and steadfastness while holding the lines in the Siversk direction, as well as the warriors of the 25th Sicheslav Separate Airborne Brigade for determination during the liberation of our territory, for special energy. Thank you, warriors!

The warriors – border guards of the Chop detachment, who are currently protecting our state in the Donetsk region as part of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, showed themselves perfectly. Today, they stopped the enemy’s brutal assault – the Russian attack was repulsed. In addition, they managed to replenish our exchange fund. Thanks guys!

The Air Forces also have a result: today there is a downed Russian attack helicopter and a downed Russian aircraft – Su-25.

Russian terrorists continued shelling in various directions: Chernihiv region, Kharkiv region, Donbas, Dnipropetrovsk region, Zaporizhzhia and the region, Mykolaiv and the region… We respond to the occupiers. We respond tangibly.

In general, there were no emergency blackouts throughout the country today – we managed to restore the technical possibility of energy supply after the Russian strikes that took place during the week. But generation deficits still persist, so extremely frugal electricity consumption and stabilization restrictions must be continued.

And please be especially careful on the roads at night. There have already been many appeals, in particular from the National Police, regarding the need for pedestrians to have reflective elements on their clothing. This is very important for both children and adults. But it is no less important that drivers have a conscientious attitude.

Now you should not just follow the speed regime, but also reduce the speed additionally, especially in those places where there are unregulated pedestrian crossings. Please take care of the safety of others.

And, by the way, today I want to congratulate all Ukrainian motorists – not only civilians, but also military – on the Day of Motorists and Road Workers.

Usually they wish you a good road. And I know that this road of ours, although not easy, definitely leads to our joint victory. Congratulations!

Another vessel chartered by the UN Food Program has already been loaded in the port of Chornomorsk. This is a bulk carrier carrying 40,000 tons of wheat for Ethiopia, a country experiencing a severe food situation. Ethiopia is on the brink of famine. This is a problem not only of rising food prices, but also of a physical shortage of food.

We are ready to release this vessel into the sea, like all others that left the ports of the Great Odesa during the grain export initiative. But this bulker with wheat for the UN Food Program and other vessels with agricultural products are forced to wait, because Russia is blackmailing the world with hunger.

What did the world hear? That someone allegedly launches drones from a bulker… At first they talked about “war birds”, then – “war insects”, now – “war grain”… A killer wheat, which drowns Russian admirals. Well, what can you say? They are truly sick people. But these sick people are once again putting the world on the brink of a severe food crisis.

Russia is the only one to blame for the fact that food will now become more expensive for people across a vast expanse from West Africa to East Asia. Russia is the reason why people, in particular, in Ethiopia, Yemen or Somalia, are left with a catastrophic food shortage.

Of course, the partners are trying to convince the terrorist state to slow down the blackmail a little. But is it realistic? So far, the facts indicate that the Russian leadership is more interested in exacerbating the food crisis than in implementing the signed documents. And this, by the way, is the answer to all those who talk about negotiations with Russia.

The grain corridor is a very specific example. There are now 218 pieces of evidence that Russia does not want any real deals. 218 vessels waiting for the opportunity to carry food under export contracts or enter Ukrainian ports. Week after week, Russia has been slowing down the grain corridor despite its own promises to partners, and has now blocked it completely.

Ukraine, for its part, will do everything to ensure that the grain export initiative continues to work. And I thank everyone who helps our state!

Thank you to everyone who fights and works for our victory! Thank you to everyone who shows concern for others under these circumstances!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kherson and Izium:

KHERSON CITY /30 OCT/ Twelve HIMARS precision strike munitions targeted barge/ferry operations and the bridge spans of the M-14 HWY, Anatovsky Bridge. UKR Intel has noted the arrival of ‘Rosguard’ and engineering personnel into the city. RU continues preparations for urban combat pic.twitter.com/CyQAnZJeUu

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 30, 2022

IZIUM AXIS/ 1230 UTC 30 OCT/ UKR infantry is reported to have interdicted the P-66 HWY between Svatove and Kremenna. This imperils RU Lines of Communication and Supply (LOCS). Fighting continues to the north and south of Kremenna. Ukrainian SEAD missions hit Russian SAM sites. pic.twitter.com/6ug7DRrJGb

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 30, 2022

Speaking of things going kablooey…

The turret of a russian tank is very heavy! But it is pretty light compared to the courage of the soldiers of the #UAarmy. pic.twitter.com/gvrmgNvw86

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 30, 2022

I think we have a new world record!

If you were curious about some of the Ukrainian medics, this thread is for you!

My friend Sergei and his team are paramedics in the #Hospitallers battalion. They are volunteers and it means that they are not getting paid for their work and 100% rely on donations.

— Darya Zorka (@daryazorka) October 29, 2022

Sergei said: $60 per month. I asked how much they spend on gas monthly and he said: $300-$400 per month (for a car and a generator). I asked who pays for that, he said: we pay, from our savings and from money that our friends and relatives send.

— Darya Zorka (@daryazorka) October 29, 2022

This video shows their team on a rescue mission when their car was hit by landmine explosion. Luckily they weren’t injured. Just one accident among many that was captured on camera. They are risking their lives every day to save the lives of other people. #ukrainecounteroffensive pic.twitter.com/o9WKnQyHdY

— Darya Zorka (@daryazorka) October 29, 2022

If you could contribute monthly (even a few $) – it will be a huge help for them. Thank you!

Here is Sergei’s Instagram page: https://t.co/E3PGkZguAv

Here is an article about Sergei: https://t.co/qvSjeo0t3V

— Darya Zorka (@daryazorka) October 29, 2022

Please consider donating monthly if you can, even a few $, it will make huge difference for his unit 🙏 Sergei’s PayPal: [email protected]
If you are located in Europe and would like to donate using IBAN – this is the number: UA113052990000026201749895710

— Darya Zorka (@daryazorka) October 30, 2022

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Riders on the storm
Riders on the storm
(The Doors)

Today my co-rider @ptuxerman helped me to raise a significant amount for the injured sappers. If you also want to help – here’s the link https://t.co/D2ed7N7sw3 or my PayPal [email protected] pic.twitter.com/qqPBESKzdu

— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 30, 2022

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Майже нічого не пропустив🫢 #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні

♬ original sound – boiwhatdahelllboi1

The caption machine translates as:

Almost didn’t miss anything #PatrontheDog #PatronDSNS #SlavaUkraini

Open thread!

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Previous Post: « Sunday Evening Open Thread: Are the Polls Broken, Or Is It the Pollsters?
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Reader Interactions

54Comments

  1. 1.

    dmsilev

    October 30, 2022 at 9:52 pm

    I just had a baking project go kablooey!

    Have fun cleaning the cake batter off the ceiling!

    Thanks again for all of your updates and insights over the last several months.

  2. 2.

    Adam L Silverman

    October 30, 2022 at 9:58 pm

    @dmsilev: Bottom of the oven, where it had caught fire.

  3. 3.

    lollipopguild

    October 30, 2022 at 9:59 pm

    Read the post before we comment?  What kind of popsical stand are you running here?  We are the commentariat of Balloon Juice!   WE will comment in any way we feel like, we will comment before reading the post, we will comment before reading any of the comments. We contain multitudes, we are large we are omnipresent.

  4. 4.

    dmsilev

    October 30, 2022 at 10:00 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Fun times…

  5. 5.

    lollipopguild

    October 30, 2022 at 10:00 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: So it was a sacrifice to the Oven god.

  6. 6.

    Amir Khalid

    October 30, 2022 at 10:03 pm

    You put explosives in your Halloween cake?

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    October 30, 2022 at 10:04 pm

    @lollipopguild: We’ve replaced lollipopguild’s regular coffee with chamomile tea. Let’s see what happens…

  8. 8.

    Adam L Silverman

    October 30, 2022 at 10:07 pm

    @Amir Khalid: I have often said baking is like bomb making. If you get the recipe just a little bit off…

    In this case I was trying to adapt a regular recipe into something I can eat on my current eating plan – no refined carbs, no sugar – and replaced the flour with almond flour, the sugar with monk fruit crystals, ans the butter with coconut oil. My cupcakes went a wee bit wild in the oven.

  9. 9.

    surfk9

    October 30, 2022 at 10:14 pm

    Ex professional baker here: no one ever sees the results of a bad baking project. They just don’t exist

  10. 10.

    Bill Arnold

    October 30, 2022 at 10:20 pm

    @surfk9:

    Ex professional baker here: no one ever sees the results of a bad baking project. They just don’t exist

    Curiously, Stable Diffusion refuses to generate non-pretty cupcake images. Even with the prompt “cupcake explosion in the oven”, the generated cupcake images looks delicious and normal.
    https://huggingface.co/spaces/stabilityai/stable-diffusion

  11. 11.

    Ken

    October 30, 2022 at 10:22 pm

    Has crowdsourcing a war ever been done on this scale?  WWII had the bond sales, but that went into the regular government procurement process. I don’t think there were individuals buying tanks and artillery shells and shipping them to the front.  They did send cookies, cigarettes, and long underwear, at least according to my family’s stories.

  12. 12.

    Alison Rose

    October 30, 2022 at 10:24 pm

    I admit, I got the giggles for a bit after he said “killer wheat” – I can picture the memes already.

    Thank you for sharing the tweet thread about Sergei and his team. What an amazing group of people, and doing this work as volunteers is incredible. I don’t have a lot but I threw them some coin via Paypal. I hope the attention from the tweets will help them out a lot, especially as winter is approaching.

    Zelenskyy posted a video about being awarded the Oxi Courage Award (which I admit I’d never heard of before), with some of the remarks from Jake Sullivan who presented it and then his own remarks in English. It’s a nice short one to watch.

    Thank you as always, Adam. May your next baking experiment not go kablooey.

  13. 13.

    surfk9

    October 30, 2022 at 10:31 pm

    @Bill Arnold: all non-perfect product is disposed of

  14. 14.

    lollipopguild

    October 30, 2022 at 10:34 pm

    @Ken: Businesses would “buy” an airplane, in England a Spitfire in America a Hellcat fighter. When the navy built the USS Houston to replace the ship lost in the early part of the war the city of Houston raised money to buy the new ship.

  15. 15.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    October 30, 2022 at 10:38 pm

    I was an Army Infantry Combat Medic in Vietnam in my past lifetime. I just cannot imagine lugging out a wounded soldier just to load the soldier into a vehicle and then drive who knows how far to a surgery center. At least in Vietnam with air superiority, after a fire fight we could medevac the wounded by helicopter directly from the field to a hospital.

    Reading that thread about unpaid volunteer medics and the rudimentary method of evacuating a wounded soldier just makes me depressed and upset. Where the fxxk is the International Red Cross in all this? Oh yeah. That’s right. I remember now. It all comes rushing back. In Vietnam when we occasionally got back to base camp for a day or two, the Red Cross would have a hospitality tent where you could buy, yes buy, coffee and donuts. Fxxk the Red Cross too.

    Yeah I know. Vietnam, the US Army, the Red Cross and a bunch of other baggage has made me grumpy

  16. 16.

    MP

    October 30, 2022 at 10:52 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: If you’re going to use those substitutions, you have to add 15g of thermite to ensure things come out just so.

  17. 17.

    BeautifulPlumage

    October 30, 2022 at 11:01 pm

    @MP: that got a snortgiggle

    Thank you again, Adam, for the consistency of your updates. Even in the face of (cake) disaster.

    Did the fire set off dogs & smoke alarms? Good times!

  18. 18.

    Lyrebird

    October 30, 2022 at 11:17 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: FWIW some of my almond flour experiments went pretty well when I started with Elana Amsterdam’s recipes, even when I substituted almost everything else, like applesauce for all the oil and sweetener.

    I am not actually a fan of the way she interacts with readers, but since I have baked many an expensive hockey puck, I thought I would mention the recipes.  Which you may well have tried already.

  19. 19.

    Lyrebird

    October 30, 2022 at 11:17 pm

    @Grumpy Old Railroader: You are amazing!

  20. 20.

    KrackenJack

    October 30, 2022 at 11:27 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Low carb baking is a real crap shoot. The field is still awaiting it’s Shirley Corriher.

  21. 21.

    StringOnAStick

    October 30, 2022 at 11:52 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: There’s excellent keto baking recipes out there, just a bit of searching should get you some.  It’s tricky adapting away from gluten containing flours; the main replacement seems to be powdered egg whites.

  22. 22.

    Jay

    October 31, 2022 at 12:04 am

    @StringOnAStick:

    T uses ground flax seeds as an egg substitute.

  23. 23.

    Yutsano

    October 31, 2022 at 12:06 am

    @Adam L Silverman: ​

    In this case I was trying to adapt a regular recipe into something I can eat on my current eating plan – no refined carbs, no sugar – and replaced the flour with almond flour, the sugar with monk fruit crystals, ans the butter with coconut oil. My cupcakes went a wee bit wild in the oven.

    What the fark did you use for leavening???

  24. 24.

    Carlo Graziani

    October 31, 2022 at 12:06 am

    Adam, I noticed that you are substituting out the wheat flour. If gluten should be a dietary issue for you (you have my condolences in that case) may I recommend polenta — coarse Italian cornmeal — as a substitute starch? It is actually consumed in much of Northern Italy in preference to pasta. There are thousands of recipes for polenta dishes. Any meat dish that produces a sauce or a gravy will take a dollop of plain polenta on the side. It can be combined with vegetables, with legumes, with dairy, baked in casseroles, fried and served as crostini. It’s really very versatile. And quite available in US markets in the non pre-cooked form, nowadays.

  25. 25.

    Kent

    October 31, 2022 at 12:10 am

    @Ken:Has crowdsourcing a war ever been done on this scale?  WWII had the bond sales, but that went into the regular government procurement process. I don’t think there were individuals buying tanks and artillery shells and shipping them to the front.  They did send cookies, cigarettes, and long underwear, at least according to my family’s stories.

    The WW2 War Bonds were just a marketing ploy and way for ordinary Americans to feel patriotic.  They weren’t outside the normal procurement process as you note.   And if American citizens hadn’t bought war bonds the debt would have just been financed through normal institutional bond sales like it always is.  War bonds didn’t funnel one dime of additional money into the war effort.

  26. 26.

    West of the Rockies

    October 31, 2022 at 12:24 am

    @lollipopguild:

    Isn’t there a valued commenter here by that name?  Omnipresent Omnibus?

  27. 27.

    Jay

    October 31, 2022 at 12:28 am

    Russian retreat,

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWGYj3JuM4Q

    Why even in a chaotic and panicked retreat one should not sit over the drivers viewports on a Russian BTR.

  28. 28.

    Jay

    October 31, 2022 at 12:32 am

    ⚡️Governor: Russian troops blow up bridge over Krasna River in Luhansk Oblast.According to Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhii Haidai, the Russian forces are “afraid” that Ukrainian forces “are very close,” as Ukraine's counteroffensive in the region continues.📷Serhii Haidai pic.twitter.com/j4fNRQtFYY— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 30, 2022

  29. 29.

    Chris T.

    October 31, 2022 at 12:32 am

    @Bill Arnold: Try “lava cake kilauea cupcake eruption ocean” – I got something fairly impressive from that…

  30. 30.

    JaySinWA

    October 31, 2022 at 12:32 am

    @Carlo Graziani: A big corn lobbyist, who knew?

  31. 31.

    dr. luba

    October 31, 2022 at 12:33 am

    Patron:

    This is me sitting in at a meeting, so that I don’t miss anything important.

    This is also, a minute later.

  32. 32.

    Jay

    October 31, 2022 at 12:37 am

    ⚡️UN, Turkey, Ukraine reach deal to move 16 ships. The three parties agreed on Oct. 31 to move 16 ships that are in Turkish waters following Russia's decision to exit the UN-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative, Reuters reports, citing a statement of the Joint Coordination Center.— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 30, 2022

  33. 33.

    dr. luba

    October 31, 2022 at 12:38 am

    @Jay: I heard that today on the radio.  Russia is not part of this deal.  How will it work?

  34. 34.

    Jay

    October 31, 2022 at 12:43 am

    @Carlo Graziani:

    then you get cornbread not cupcakes.

    for cupcakes I would use coconut flour.

  35. 35.

    Jay

    October 31, 2022 at 12:46 am

    @dr. luba:

    The ships will either go through, or Russia will have to deploy military force to attempt stop them or sink them.

    Either way, there will be consequences.

  36. 36.

    Shalimar

    October 31, 2022 at 12:46 am

    @dr. luba: It sounds like Russia isn’t going to mess with Turkey, so the hard part is getting the ships to Turkish waters from now on.  These 16 are already there.

  37. 37.

    Jay

    October 31, 2022 at 12:52 am

    ⚡️UK intelligence: Wagner Group now prioritizes ‘numbers over experience or quality’ when recruiting troops.According to the U.K. Defense Ministry, the Wagner Group is recruiting Russian convicts suffering from severe diseases, including HIV and hepatitis. pic.twitter.com/XgtbNncwlZ— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 30, 2022

  38. 38.

    Roger Moore

    October 31, 2022 at 1:01 am

    @Kent:

    People during WWII didn’t have a lot to spend their money on.  They couldn’t buy many capital goods, because industry was too busy building stuff for the military.  They weren’t going to spend a lot of money on housing because people being pulled away into the military meant there was more free housing, and nobody was building much new housing anyway.  Food and other consumables were rationed.  Everyone who wanted a job could have one, so there was a lot of money with nothing to spend it on.  It was natural savings would be sky high, and war bonds gave people a good place to put their savings.

  39. 39.

    Jay

    October 31, 2022 at 1:05 am

    A short 🧵 on how Russian intelligence launders fake news by using helpful EU "media".A leading headline in Russian state media today is that "Poland plans to capture Western Ukraine and hold a referendum". The cited source is "the Belgian portal Modern Democracy". pic.twitter.com/fybcx181VR— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) October 30, 2022

  40. 40.

    Alison Rose

    October 31, 2022 at 1:31 am

    @Jay: Swear to God, any day now, they’re gonna start Weekend At Bernie’s-ing it up in this bitch.

  41. 41.

    Sebastian

    October 31, 2022 at 1:31 am

    I spy with my little eye.

    The Americans very strangely and urgently wrote off 48 active F-15 fighters from the 44th “Vampires” air wing at the Kaden base in Japan. It is surprising that combat vehicles are usually phased out of service.
    — Malinda 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇵🇱🇨🇦🇮🇹🇦🇺🇬🇧🇯🇵🇮🇱🇩🇪 (@TreasChest) October 31, 2022

     

    Such “replacements” can continue for several years, as the arrival of new aircraft. Experts note that such abrupt “write-off” procedures without further information about preservation or sale are usually associated with a discrete decision to transfer the equipment
    — Malinda 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇵🇱🇨🇦🇮🇹🇦🇺🇬🇧🇯🇵🇮🇱🇩🇪 (@TreasChest) October 31, 2022

     

    to a new operator. BARTENDERS ✙✙✙
    — Malinda 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇵🇱🇨🇦🇮🇹🇦🇺🇬🇧🇯🇵🇮🇱🇩🇪 (@TreasChest) October 31, 2022

  42. 42.

    Sebastian

    October 31, 2022 at 1:34 am

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Excellent suggestion.

  43. 43.

    Another Scott

    October 31, 2022 at 1:50 am

    @Jay: Thanks for the pointer.

    It’s astounding that they apparently livestream that stuff.  And that they seem to have no idea what is going on…

    :-/

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  44. 44.

    Sebastian

    October 31, 2022 at 1:56 am

    @Jay:

    I saw a small clip of this on Twitter. Thank you for this!

    “Where’s the leg?” at the very end is Chef’s Kiss.

  45. 45.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    October 31, 2022 at 4:39 am

    @Alison Rose: Took me a moment to make the connection with the Greek holiday of Oxi Day – October 28, 1940, on which date the Italian ambassador to Greece demanded of the Greek Prime Minister that Greece allow Axis forces to enter Greece and occupy unspecified “strategic locations,” and the Greek Prime Minister answered by telling the ambassador to tell Il Duce to go fuck himself, only more politely and, for some odd reason, in French.

    Whereupon the Greeks stopped the Italian invasion from Albania (at the time an Italian protectorate) and pushed the Fascists halfway back through Albania towards the Adriatic Sea before the Nazis joined in and turned the tide.

  46. 46.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    October 31, 2022 at 4:41 am

    @Sebastian: Saw that pop up on my Chrome feed, with a breathless headline that it might indicate the US backing off from the Pacific Rim in the face of Chinese pressure. But if those F-15s are joining the Ukrainian Air Force, that makes quite a bit more sense.

  47. 47.

    Geminid

    October 31, 2022 at 5:25 am

    @Bruce K in ATH-GR: Air Force Times has an article about two F-15 wings, 44 planes total being withdrawn from the Kadema, Okinawa air force base. For now they will be replaced by “rotational” units. They are older F-15C models. I guess we’ll know their destination if we hear of Ukrainian pilots training on them stateside.

  48. 48.

    lowtechcyclist

    October 31, 2022 at 6:17 am

    @Sebastian: ​
     

    Interesting info, aside from my brief wince at the tweeter’s use of ‘discrete’ when she meant ‘discreet.’

  49. 49.

    Geminid

    October 31, 2022 at 6:41 am

    @Geminid: Regarding Ukrainian pilots training on the F-15s, comments to the tweet linked at #41 point out that some may already be training on planes that are in the U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (IL) chimed in to point out that Congress has appropriated $100 million for such training, but complained that the administration was not yet spending any of it.

  50. 50.

    YY_Sima Qian

    October 31, 2022 at 7:48 am

    @Geminid: The F-15C is no longer advantaged over their counterparts in the PLAAF (J-11B & upgrade, J-16, both substantially modified from the original Su-27 & Su-30). The Kadena AFB (& other fixed mega-US bases w/in the 1st Island Chain) on Okinawa is also extremely vulnerable to barrages of Chinese ballistic & cruise missiles in a Taiwan Strait scenario. Thus, the US has been quietly consolidating forces in the 2nd Island Chain (Guam especially), though the bases there also increasingly vulnerable to Chinese ballistic missile & hypersonic glide vehicle munitions. The US has been experimenting w/ distributed operations from multitude of smaller bases dispersed across the many islands of the Marshall Islands, Palau & Micronesia, all US protectorates, even Hawaii & Australia. The USMC (to a lesser extent, the US Army) is experimenting w/ similar concept, but off even smaller, temporary & more rugged forward operating bases on the islands of the Ryukyus & the Philippines, to contest Chinese dominance w/in the 1st Island China, leveraging platforms such as HIMARS, long range anti-ship cruise missiles & surface to air missiles on light weight mobile launchers. Operational mobility provided by medium landing ships and transport aircraft. How survivable these expeditionary fire bases are depends on the US’ ability to degrade Chinese long range targeting.

    For the operational challenges in the Western Pacific posed by the rapidly modernizing Chinese military, & the US response, Thomas Shugart, Blake Herzinger, Gerry Doyle & Stacie Pettyjohn are great resources (& active on Twitter). For deep expertise on the modernizing PLA, over decades, look no further than John Culver, Lyle Goldstein, Dennis Blasko, & James Holmes (on the more alarmist end).

    Anyway, the withdrawal of the F-15C squadrons is probably part of this shift, although gifting them to Ukraine is also certainly conceivable as a parallel move.

  51. 51.

    Carlo Graziani

    October 31, 2022 at 8:58 am

    @Sebastian: Well. That is interesting. I wonder whether the gloves come off when it comes to rules of engagement. Letting AMRAAMs fly at Russian aircraft over Russian airspace seems perfectly acceptable, if those aircraft are loosing munitions at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. In fact, it would not surprise me at all if this were the Biden administration’s quiet riposte to the Russian onslaught on Ukrainian civilian targets.

    I imagine Ukrainian pilots have been training in the US for a while. I wonder how much logistical lift is involved in getting F-15C full ground support into a Ukrainian airbase.

  52. 52.

    Carlo Graziani

    October 31, 2022 at 9:43 am

    @Carlo Graziani: Also, presuming the inference of transfer to Ukkraine is correct, I assume that there would be no real cost to integrating them into NATO AWACS coverage of the region.

  53. 53.

    Uncle Cosmo

    October 31, 2022 at 9:52 am

    @Bruce K in ATH-GR: Um, I thought the whole point of Óχι Day was that on 28 Oct 1940, the Greek prime minister replied to the Italian demands, quite simply, with No (όχι). Like McAuliffe at Bastogne 4+ years later, with one letter less (“Nuts!”).

  54. 54.

    Geminid

    October 31, 2022 at 10:00 am

    @Carlo Graziani: F-15s can also defend against cruise missiles. And drones; last month an F-15 downed an Iranian drone headed towards Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. The drone was part of a larger barrage against Kurdish positions near the border that the US did not interfere with.

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