Just a quick update tonight.
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today I spoke with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. It was a very productive conversation. Working conversation. We have got confirmation from the President regarding macro-financial support for Ukraine – until the end of this year and next year. The scope and details of this program will be presented by our European friends already in the upcoming week.
We also talked about assistance in restoring our energy sector and energy infrastructure. I am also grateful for the full support of our efforts to preserve the grain export initiative.
Of course, increasing pressure on the Iranian regime was discussed today with Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen. Its complicity in Russian terror must be punished. And we will bring this issue not only to the level of our traditional partners. The whole world will know that the Iranian regime helps Russia prolong this war, and therefore prolong the effect of those threats to the world provoked precisely by the Russian war. If it was not for the Iranian supply of weapons to the aggressor, we would be closer to peace now. And this means closer to a complete solution to the food crisis. Closer to solving the cost of living crisis. Closer to stabilization at the energy market. Closer to reliable security against radiation blackmail, which Russia does not give up. Therefore, absolutely everyone who helps Russia prolong this war must bear responsibility for the consequences of this war along with it.
Today, the occupiers used Iranian attack drones again. There are downed ones. But, unfortunately, there are also hits.
We also understand that the terrorist state is concentrating forces and means for a possible repetition of mass attacks on our infrastructure. First of all, energy. In particular, for this, Russia needs Iranian missiles.
We are preparing to respond.
But also, please note: more and more often there are reports that not a single Kalibr carrier has gone on combat duty in the Black Sea. This is a significant result, which was ensured by our defenders. The smaller the Russian Black Sea fleet, the safer it is in the Black Sea. And there will definitely be a day when we will announce that we have provided Ukraine with full protection from the Russian threat both at sea and in the sky. I am sure of it.
Very fierce Russian attacks in the Donetsk region continue. The enemy suffers serious losses there, but despite everything, despite any losses, he continues to drive his mobilized soldiers and mercenaries to their deaths.
I thank all our warriors who withstand this terrible pressure, who remain steadfast and heroically defend our positions.
And I especially want to single out today the fighters of the 79th separate airborne assault brigade for their bravery and heroism during the defense in the Avdiivka direction.
I also thank everyone involved in eliminating the consequences of Russian terrorist attacks in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, cities and communities of the Dnipropetrovsk region, and Mykolaiv. We will definitely drive out the occupiers, we will definitely guarantee the safety of all our cities, all our communities.
As of this evening, stabilization blackouts continue in Kyiv and six regions. More than 4.5 million consumers are without electricity. Most of them are now in Kyiv and the Kyiv region. It’s really difficult.
During the week, I had several special meetings with government officials, representatives of energy companies and regional administrations regarding probable scenarios in the energy sector. We consider each scenario in detail and prepare appropriate actions.
No matter what the terrorists want, no matter what they try to achieve, we must endure this winter and be even stronger in the spring than we are now, be even more ready for the liberation of our entire territory than now.
Every month we have to set difficult goals and, passing through them, become even stronger.
Glory to all who fight and work for our victory!
Gratitude to everyone who helps!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kherson and Izium:
KHERSON/1400 UTC 6 NOV/ Russian combat engineers are working to establish defensive positions & atrillery fire bases on the S. bank of the Dnipro River. Partisans and UKR SOF identify RU troop concentration in Chulanivka; UKR precision strike munitions score direct hits. pic.twitter.com/3uC49PHV1v
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 6, 2022
IZIUM AXIS/ 1920 UTC 6 NOV/ RU forces had occupied a salient in the vicinity of Makiivka. Dominated by high ground to the west, UKR artillery swept this terrain, inflicting serious losses. Counter-attacking, UKR infantry drove RU units back as much as 6 Km. pic.twitter.com/EGxPykApNd
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 6, 2022
Apparently we’ve enter silly season in DC as people have decided to start leaking about the Biden administration’s efforts to engage with the Russians and get the Ukrainians to talk about negotiating even if there’s nothing to negotiate.
First from The Wall Street Journal:
WASHINGTON—President Biden’s top national-security adviser has engaged in recent months in confidential conversations with top aides to Russian President Vladimir Putin in an effort to reduce the risk of a broader conflict over Ukraine and warn Moscow against using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, U.S. and allied officials said.
The officials said that U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan has been in contact with Yuri Ushakov, a foreign-policy adviser to Mr. Putin. Mr. Sullivan also has spoken with his direct counterpart in the Russian government, Nikolai Patrushev, the officials added.
The aim has been to guard against the risk of escalation and keep communications channels open, and not to discuss a settlement of the war in Ukraine, the officials said.Asked whether Mr. Sullivan has engaged in undisclosed conversations with Messrs. Ushakov or Patrushev, National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said: “People claim a lot of things” and declined to comment further. The Kremlin didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The White House hasn’t publicly acknowledged any calls between Mr. Sullivan and any senior Russian official since March, when he spoke with Mr. Patrushev.
The unpublicized discussions come as traditional diplomatic contacts between Washington and Moscow have dwindled and Mr. Putin and his aides have hinted he might resort to using nuclear arms to protect Russian territory, as well as gains made in his invasion of Ukraine this year.
Despite its support for Ukraine and punitive measures against Russia for the invasion, the White House has said that maintaining some level of contact with Moscow is imperative for achieving certain mutual national-security interests.
Several U.S. officials said that Mr. Sullivan is known within the administration as pushing for a line of communication with Russia, even as other top policy makers feel that talks in the current diplomatic and military environment wouldn’t be fruitful.
Officials didn’t provide the precise dates and number of the calls or say whether they had been productive.
Some former American officials said that it was useful for the White House to maintain contact with the Kremlin as U.S.-Russian relations are at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War.
Mr. Sullivan has spoken to Ukraine’s leadership, urging them to publicly signal their willingness to resolve the conflict, a U.S. official said. The U.S. isn’t pushing Ukraine to negotiate, the official added, but rather to show allies that it is seeking a resolution to the conflict, which has affected world oil and food prices.
The Washington Post earlier reported efforts by Mr. Sullivan to persuade Ukrainian officials to seek a resolution.
When Mr. Putin and his senior aides hinted in September that Russia might use nuclear weapons if his forces were pushed into a corner, Mr. Sullivan said that the Biden administration had “communicated directly, privately at very high levels to the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia.”
The White House had declined to say how that warning was communicated.
Here’s The Washington Post‘s reporting on the attempts to persuade the Ukrainians to seek a resolution:
The discussions illustrate how complex the Biden administration’s position on Ukraine has become, as U.S. officials publicly vow to support Kyiv with massive sums of aid “for as long as it takes” while hoping for a resolution to the conflict that over the past eight months has taken a punishing toll on the world economy and triggered fears of nuclear war.
While U.S. officials share their Ukrainian counterparts’ assessment that Putin, for now, isn’t serious about negotiations, they acknowledge that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ban on talks with him has generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war’s disruptive effects on the availability and cost of food and fuel are felt most sharply.
“Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners,” said one U.S. official who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations between Washington and Kyiv.
Serhiy Nikiforov, a spokesman for Zelensky, did not respond to a request for comment.
In the United States, polls show eroding support among Republicans for continuing to finance Ukraine’s military at current levels, suggesting the White House may face resistance following Tuesday’s midterm elections as it seeks to continue a security assistance program that has delivered Ukraine the largest such annual sum since the end of the Cold War.
In a trip to Kyiv on Friday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the United States supported a just and lasting peace for Ukraine and said U.S. support would continue regardless of domestic politics. “We fully intend to ensure that the resources are there as necessary and that we’ll get votes from both sides of the aisle to make that happen,” he said during a briefing.
Eagerness for a potential resolution to the war has intensified as Ukrainian forces recapture occupied territory, pushing closer to areas prized by Putin. Those begin with Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, and include cities along the Azov Sea that now provide him a “land bridge” to the Ukrainian peninsula. Zelensky has vowed to fight for every inch of Ukrainian territory.
While Zelensky laid out proposals for a negotiated peace in the weeks following Putin’s Feb. 24 invasion, including Ukrainian neutrality and a return of areas occupied by Russia since that date, Ukrainian officials have hardened their stance in recent months.
In late September, following Putin’s annexation of four additional Ukrainian regions in the east and in the south, Zelensky issued a decree declaring it “impossible” to negotiate with the Russian leader. “We will negotiate with the new president,” he said in a video address.
That shift has been fueled by systematic atrocities in areas under Russian control, including rape and torture, along with regular airstrikes on Kyiv and other cities, and the Kremlin’s annexation decree.
Ukrainians have responded with outrage when foreigners have suggested they yield areas of their country as part of a peace deal, as they did last month when billionaire Elon Musk, who has helped supply Ukraine’s military with satellite communication devices, announced a proposal on Twitter that could allow Russia to cement its control of parts of Ukraine via referendum and give the Kremlin Crimea.
In recent weeks Ukrainian criticism of proposed concessions has grown more pointed, as officials decry “useful idiots” in the West whom they’ve accused of serving Kremlin interests.
“If Russia wins, we will get a period of chaos: flowering of tyranny, wars, genocides, nuclear races,” presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Friday. “Any ‘concessions’ to Putin today — a deal with the Devil. You won’t like its price.”
There is much, much more at both links!
My take on this reporting is that someone is nervous about the outcome on Tuesday. As a result, they’re trying to inoculate the administration from what they expect to be hostility from Congress if the GOP retakes one or both chambers of Congress. When you combine that with what seems to be APNSA Sullivan’s caution and small “c” conservative approach to the use of US national power, you get leaks like this. Which have, fortunately, been rare from the Biden administration. I’m also not sure that this information is as problematic to have out in the wild as people responding to it on social media, or the framing of it in the reporting would have us believe. Frankly, working backchannel communications with senior Russian national security officials to ensure that the US’s positions are communicate clearly and directly from the national security official closest to President Biden to the national security official closest to Putin is a good thing, not a bad thing. Working with the Ukrainians to ensure that their own messaging is framed in a way that allows the Biden administration to keep the coalition of EU, NATO, non-EU, and non-NATO allies supporting Ukraine together with what might be a very hostile Congress come January – hostile to both the administration and to Ukraine – also makes sense.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
This is a teaser of my first comic book 🤩 I’m a sapper dog there (based on the true story😅), but also a sapper who will fight evil evil in the… (can’t tell where and how)! A big comic book is coming soon. And ENG version will be a little bit later. But it will be❤️ pic.twitter.com/DsRDhfdM8N
— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 6, 2022
Not we’re, were. Paws, you know 😅
— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 6, 2022
The very important petition 😢 https://t.co/ryfMBHCnL9
— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 6, 2022
Here’s the link to the petition.
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Навіть уявляти не хочу! #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні
The caption machine translates as:
I don’t even want to imagine! #PatrontheDog #PatronDSNS #SlavaUkraini
Open thread!
Medium Cool with BGinCHI – Election Time!
Kristine
Looking forward to the story of Patron vs The Dangerous Aliens.
GreyMichael
I know it goes against historical midterm election results, but I hope the Dem party keeps both houses. Not just for Ukraine but for us here in America too.
PaulB
“The discussions illustrate how complex the Biden administration’s position on Ukraine has become….”
And, as we well know, our current media is just awesome at comprehending and explaining complex positions, right?
Edited to add my grateful appreciation for even a shortened post. The amount of time that you spend on these posts to give us this daily insight is just staggering. Thank you.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Thank you for these posts, Adam.
Alison Rose
I don’t know if the leaks are BS or what, but I don’t see how anyone can think realistic, substantive negotiations are possible with someone like putin. His only stance would be “russia gets everything and you all shut up” basically. It’s simply not possible to believe he will ever give a shit about Ukrainian liberty, sovereignty, futures, etc. And there is no way on God’s green Earth that Zelenskyy is going to cede even a minuscule amount of any of it, rightly so.
This was nice to see: Ukrainian and Iranian refugees marching together in protest in Germany. I don’t know what they’re saying but I assume there’s a general “fuck you” message to it.
Thank you as always, Adam.
zhena gogolia
My feeble grasp of Ukrainian tells me that Patron’s TikTok says he’s not afraid of disarming mines but he’s really afraid of being without his team—and that’s what he can’t imagine
Jay
Adam L Silverman
@PaulB: @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: You, and everyone else, are most welcome. Though I look forward to not having to do these. And the sooner the better.
Jay
Martin
@Jay: I don’t understand that video. If they are having to hastily bury soldiers, why are the graves so well decorated?
Ryan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5QGkOGZubQ
Jay
@Martin:
it’s not a need to quickly bury the dead, it’s a lack of space in the graveyard.
Eyeroller
@Martin: Hard to tell what is going on there, but it looks like perhaps a cemetery on the left ran out of room.
Jay
Martin
@Jay: Ah, makes more sense that way. What a waste of life, and for what?
Frankensteinbeck
My take on this reporting is that a reporter has a rumor that they want to be a gotcha and is expending vast amounts of words and insinuations to fabricate scandal out of thin air. America suggested that empty words about being open to a peaceful end of things would be good for diplomacy with allies. Specifically with the understanding that Ukraine is not going to let Russia keep any territory or be pushed into any peace Ukraine doesn’t want. Ukraine declined the suggestion. Not exactly shocking.
Anoniminous
Unless the Orcs are trying to stop smuggling digging a linear WW One style trench defense is pointless. All it does is ‘pin’ Russian to known positions so the Ukrainians can pound the ever-living sh*t out of them with mortars, rockets, drones, rockets, and artillery. It’s also pointless since the Ukrainians are already across the Dnipro in the north. It is a third time pointless since, unless the high command lost their minds, the Ukrainians had no intention of conducting a cross-river assault in the Kherson oblast.
Coming down from the north means the Russian defense will be in enfilade relative to the Ukrainian mortars, rockets, drones, rockets, and artillery positioned on the west bank, maximizing the effectiveness of those weapons.
The Pale Scot
The war is going to continue until Russia runs out of Russians, the Ukrainians are apparently fine with that. The thing I hope for is that the USN still has the ability to track and follow RU boomer subs like the did in they 70’s and 80’s. There’s not a lot of info about this.
By the way, Toshiba Machine Co. and a state-formed Norwegian firm Kongsberg Vaapenfabrik, who sold RU sophisticated computer controlled machine tools to make ultra silent propellers, Should have had their patents revoked and their C-Suite staff arrested and dragged to the States
Another Scott
(Roughly) We can’t send 40 or 50 year old russian men to the front to be killed because we’d have to pay their orphans and widows a pension. And besides their prostates and vodka ravaged kidneys can’t tolerate sleeping on the cold ground. So we have to send the 18 year old kids. It’s the only way…
:-/
(via Galeev)
Cheers,
Scott.
dmsilev
@Anoniminous:
Yeah, looking at the map it just screamed ‘bypass me’! Did nobody in the Russian army study what happened with the Maginot Line?
Another Scott
@Anoniminous: I had exactly the same thoughts when I saw this thread (with various maps and photos) yesterday:
(His discussion mixed up left and right.)
Dunno.
As Adam says, I think we all hope this is over the sooner the better.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
Omnes Omnibus
@dmsilev: One of the purposes of modern defensive positions is to persuade enemy forces to avoid them. By defending one area with static defenses, you try to channel your enemy into attacking at a place of your choosing. Someplace where you are better positioned to win.
Anoniminous
300 KIA or MIA and the loss of 50% of their vehicles means the 155th Marine Brigade is combat ineffective.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Another Scott: All those prepared fighting positions the Russians are doing seems insane from what I understand about modern combat. All it takes is for the UA to find one gap in that line and it’s all useless effort.
Omnes Omnibus
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: See my comment at 23.
Anoniminous
@dmsilev:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Apparently the military history of the 20th Century is terra incognita to the Russian military.
Jay
Anoniminous
@Another Scott:
All available evidence tells us Russian high command is incapable of reading a fucking map.
Jay
trucmat
I’m not worried about President Biden forcing Ukraine to the bargaining table at disadvantageous terms because I trust that Biden has a white hot hatred for Putin. If the administration intended this leak or not it can still be used to show that the US is not just waging war but welcomes serious talks towards peace. We know that’s not possible until Russia capitulates but it is fine to play Kabuki and make peaceful gestures in order to tamp down resistance to supplying Ukraine with the arms they need.
Jay
artem1s
this is interesting.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Cleveland/comments/ynu9ok/flying_over_my_house_now_lol/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
someone apparently paid for an airplane add to fly around Cleveland that quotes JD Vance’s disinterest in Ukraine. Another issue that the MSM has completely forgotten about. First, second and third generation Americans whose ancestors had to live under Stalin care a lot about about Russian’s continued suppression of democracy and capitalism in Eastern Europe.
Alison Rose
@Jay: Yikes.
Anoniminous
@Jay:
At that rate the 300,000 newly mobilized will be down to 90,000 by the end of December.
Jay
@dmsilev:
@Omnes Omnibus:
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
@Anoniminous:
In both WWI and WWII. both Germany and the AustroHungarian Commanders noted that ill trained Russia/Soviet conscripts, in most cases, fought a dogged defence from prepared positions, but fairly quickly surrendered when bypassed or surrounded.
When you don’t have skilled soldiers and Commanders able to conduct a withdrawl under fire, use maneuver and intelligence to defeat your enemies OODA loop, just cannon fodder, it’s better to stick them in a hole than use them up in human wave attacks.
(many of the bodies in the trenches will be self interring.)
The Pale Scot
Bullshit, they are still ill trained, uneducated Ruskies. They are definitely not USMN, Royal Marines, Fusiliers marins, US Airborne, French Paratroopers or Foreign Legionnaires
Jay
Jay
@The Pale Scot:
Russian Marines are “contract” soldiers and volenteers, many with combat experience in Syria, Georgia and Chechnia.
They are amongst the “best of the best of the best, Sir!” the Russians have. Under different strategy, they may have been able to succeed in the mission, but they were thrown away trying to assault a village over open flat ground while the Ukrainian Army was on the overlooking hills.
Anoniminous
@Jay:
In 1945, after Hitler pissed-away his last reserves in the Ardennes and the Operation Spring Awakening, the Red Army still took ~800,000 dead and ~2.3 million wounded in five months fighting under-supplied, basically unequipped, old men, boys, and the odds-and-sods remnants of the German Army fighting with whatever they could get their hands on. That was when the Russians, purportedly, had their act together. They outnumbered the German 11,365,000 to 1,960,000 and they still couldn’t do anything but blunder ahead, using frontal assaults into interlocking MG-42 and mortar fire.
Jay
also in London, joint Ukrainian and Iranian protest marches.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
Urban combat is brutal against an enemy unwilling to surrender, ( for reasons).
https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/germany-in-world-war-ii-the-long-surrender/
Jay
Martin
My non-military analysis brain thinks that the strategy for Ukraine is to push Russia to the Crimean side of the Dnieper, and not necessarily even try to occupy Kherson. The goal here is to push Russia over and make it prohibitively expensive to cross back. Turn this into a front that has incredibly high cost for either party to cross. Ukraine can then maintain that line with a bit of artillery and air support to keep Russia on the other side, harass them to not wind the Russian position back too much, and then make the push at Zaporizhzhia to the coast, dividing Russias forces.
I mean, it’s going to be just as expensive for Ukraine to cross or even to occupy Kherson as they’ve been making it for Russia to cross back. They’re already at a force disadvantage – they have to get a pretty high return on any offensive move to sustain this. And they’ve been very smart on that front.
The Pale Scot
Gunning down civilians doesn’t make you an elite soldier. It just means that they were savvy enough to duck at the right time. Without long term sergeants and corporals to tell them what to do, they are all dead meat.
Combined units, tactics. In the modern war environment, this is what the UKR has been doing to RU for half a year. It’s the difference between being a warrior or a soldier. No matter how ruthless and savage a RU unit is, they’re going to get wasted by a modern trained platoon
Carlo Graziani
My take on the chances of negotiated outcome is that there are a lot of knives out in Kremlin, FSB, MOD, circles, and the policy processes are highly personalistic, very informal, unstable, and opaque (they may be merely semi-opaque to the CIA, thanks to their clairvoyant sources of information, if those are still flowing).
The idea that there is a unitary Russian policy idea right now is probably nonsense — there is a power struggle, inevitably, because things have gone so fecally badly. Putin is probably still at the apex of the power structure, but he certainly does not have the kind of unitary control that he had even as recently as September. His balancing plan to control Russian society with “normalcy” collapsed with mobilization, which was very likely forced upon him against his will — he certainly resisted it strenuously for as long as he could, until the military situation crumbled.
Now the situation is fluid. It makes no sense to say “The Russians will never negotiate” or “Putin wants Ukraine to rejuvenate the Russian Slavic population” or “Putin will never give up on his idea of Russian empire”. That was September. Now the Russians might suddenly find themselves more concerned with a Mexican standoff in Moscow that needs attending to. Or not. Or some other unlooked-for contingency. The point is to be listening for cues, and to have off-ramps available — on our own terms, of course, no discounts for running away. But advance preparation and open channels of communication are key, if a scenario of this sort should crop up.
Martin
@Anoniminous: So long as Russia was trading fewer than 5 soldiers for each German, they were technically winning. Pyrrhic victory is an unfortunate part of war.
But it does seem that Russia managed to romanticize it into something to be admired rather than avoided.
Martin
@Jay: I would think that if Russia wants to commit troops to hold Kherson, let them. Continue to attack their ability to retreat or reinforce and then just starve them out. It’s not like there’s anything of value in Kherson any longer, other than the people that can be rescued. The river is the value, not the city. So long as Ukraine can hit anything approaching the river, let them sit in the ruins of Kherson. Keeps them from any other front, and they basically can’t do any harm babysitting some unpopulated urban intersection.
GreyMichael
@Martin: My thoughts exactly. I wonder if pride is why putin persists in this evil war he started? He can’t believe all that nonsense in his manifesto, can he?
The Pale Scot
Keep killing Russians until Russia runs out of Russians, since we can’t nuke them from orbit, “it’s the only way to sure”
Another Scott
@Jay:
Marines? Ok, maybe.
They certainly weren’t sailors…
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@GreyMichael:
Tens)(+) of millions of people believe in a story about a talking snake.
I have argued (pre-current-invasion) with an intelligent Russian who believed in the Russian nationalist narratives about e.g. the imminent collapse of the West and the superiority of Russian culture. The arguments/narratives were well formed and coherent and internally consistent.
Anoniminous
@Martin:
Kherson is on the west side of the Dnipro River. The Ukrainians can liberate it without crossing the river. The question is whether the Russians will abandon the city or try to hold it.
There’s a lot of ignorant garbage floating around about the Russians turning Kherson into “another Stalingrad.” The reality is the German 6th Army absolutely slaughtered the 28th, 51st, 57th, 62nd and 64th Armies defending the city. The Red Army was able to surround the 6th Army by pushing through the badly led, supplied, and equipped Romanian (to the north) and Italian (to the south) Armies and cutting off the 6th Army.
(More than you ever want to know about the Battle of Stalingrad can be found in Glantz and House’s “Stalingrad Trilogy” )
Jay
@Martin:
it’s unclear what Russia’s strategy. (per se) is for Kherson.
They are stripping the city of everything of value and destroying what can’t be moved.
They moved Moblik’s in and evacuated the Command, all the vehicles they could and the “better” troops.
Were the Moblik’s just there to allow a withdrawl of their better assets in case of a Ukrainian assault, or are the Moblik’s to be expended defending Kherson?
There was a UA Intelligence assessment released today saying Kherson was a “trap” for the UA, yet social media reports are that Russia is abandoning Kherson.
Of course, there is also the question. Will the UA take, clear and hold Kherson, or will they just bypass it?
At this time, we don’t know.
Tony G
“On November 2 an entire Russian battalion made up by newly mobilized conscripts from Voronezh was wiped out near Makiivka, Luhansk. The commanding officers ran away. Out of 570 only 41 survived.” Obviously Putin has an extensive propaganda apparatus, but the families know when their son/brother/husband has died. What will it take before the families of these conscripts rebel? Are they all afraid?
Another Scott
WH.gov:
Sounds good to me.
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@Anoniminous: The narrative about the Russians “abandoning the city” — as in retreating in good order — make absolutely no sense to me. The permanent bridges are history, the pontoon bridges have a half-life of about a day and only light vehicle carrying capacity, and by the time they are fully engaged in the urban fight all the ferry crossings will be under full-time artillery observation. Closing time was weeks ago.
Jay
@Martin:
https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/germany-in-world-war-ii-the-long-surrender/
The Western Allied Commanders were in many cases, loath to expend the casualties clearing out the last pockets of German resistance in Europe, once Germany surrendered and those pockets were trapped and isolated.
The Soviets expended lots of lives ensuring that as they advanced, there were no German pockets.
eg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Konigsberg
Aussie Sheila
Adam, this is slightly OT, but I am increasingly enraged by Briahna Joy Gray and the grey zone fanboys re their genocide denying excuses for opposing US support for Ukraine. I value your updates here on the actual battle for liberation, but I would be interested in your take on these arseholes.
It is too facile imo to attribute it to Russian money/support, and in any case, such accusations are not useful. However, if you or anyone else has some views on this truly awful phenom, I would interested to read it.
Once again, thank you for your valuable daily updates. I don’t know how you do it.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Russia started moving Command and Control, armour and other heavy assets out of Kherson starting on August 15th.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Certainly, I’m aware of that, but their forces are still in contact along the full front and appear to be planning — possibly — some kind of fight in Kherson itself. Evacuating the surviving troops in a fighting withdrawal with the riverine assets at their disposal appears to me to be a flat-out impossibility. So they save their heavy weapons, and give up 10-20K KIA/POWs, of their best-trained troops, mind you. Good trade!
Anoniminous
@Carlo Graziani:
It makes no sense for the Russians to try and hold Kherson. They can’t. But then it made no sense for the Russians to invade in the first place. AFAIK Putin has taken command of the invasion forces. I assume he will do what he thinks is best for him.
Not going to try and predict what that is
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
As of October 23rd, other than a few company sized units, (for order), all the “quality” RA troops had been evacuated and by some accounts, roughly 30,000 “Mobliks” had been moved in, (it’s probably less).
Reports on social media from inside Kherson has the RA troops in Kherson looting, stealing, switching to civilian clothes and moving into civilian apartments. (Is their goal to wait out the UA “assault” and surrender?)
There are again, reports of some areas, like the airport, train station and prison being fortified and manned, but the reports are that the RU Forces are 10% Contract/90% Mobliks in the “fortified” areas.
As I said, it’s unclear what the so called Russian “strategy” is, if there even is one.
BTW, the last of the Kherson “ferries” was “toasted” yesterday.
Martin
@Anoniminous: I know Ukraine doesn’t need to cross to liberate it, but Russia can dig in on the east side and make it impossible to do anything with and Ukraine similarly can’t cross to take care of that. The river forces something of a stalemate, with Kherson being part of the no-mans-land in the middle. But by being on the west side, Russia can’t do anything with it either so if they want to sink a bunch of troops there with no ability to be replenished because Ukraine is close enough to make the river uncrossable, then so what. Time is on Ukraines side on this. Ukraine doesn’t need Kherson, they just need Russians in Kherson in such a defensive crouch that they can’t threaten Ukrainian forces or initiate any kind of offense. Let them sit in their holes through winter.
James E Powell
@Anoniminous:
I’m thinking about how well taking personal charge of the army worked out for Nicholas II.
Carlo Graziani
@Martin: Really, what the Ukrainians need to do is destroy either Dzhankoi railyard or the Kerch bridge. At that point, all the Russian forces on the coast will run out all war materiel, and will simply have to either retreat into Crimea or surrender.
Martin
@Carlo Graziani: I’m certain that’s at the top of some white board in Kyiv. Time will reward us.
Benno
@dmsilev: oh, my favorite Maginot line reference happened during the 98 World Cup. Some dumb American commentator said “the [French] side really needs to set up some kind of Maginot Line if they want to keep them from scoring here.” I guess the lesson is that nobody actually studies history.
Jay
@Benno:
Both the Maginot Line and the Alpine line worked well.
The French did not fortify the Belgian Border and the Belgians did not modernize or complete their “share’ of the planned fortifications.
The German Army went around the Maginot Line through Belgium. In the Alsalse region, the Lorraine region and even in a few places, attacking from the rear after sweeping into France, the Germans either failed to take the Line from the front, and had a hard time even attacking from the rear.
The sub par and fairly obsolete Alpine Line stopped the Italian Army dead in their tracks.
Benno
@Jay: yes, it did work, so the Germans went around, as you say. As well as I can recall a 24 year old match, the attacking side pretty much did the same thing. But memory is a bastard.
aaron
do I understand this correctly:
the US has contributed over $18 Billion to Ukraine, but
over $40 billion has been authorized/legislated
catfishncod
@Jay: Abandoning Kherson to all but “mobiliks” and setting up Kherson as a “trap” are not mutually exclusive, especially with the near-explicit Russian policy that mobiliks are, and I quote, “meat”.
Just one hypothetical: Putin might be trying to set Kherson up as the set-piece for his BS “Ukraine nukes itself” kabuki. If Kherson can’t be held, is looted of whatever Putin considers valuable, and only mobiliks are left, it makes a twisted kind of sense — if you are Putin and are still invested in your grand strategy of ever-escalating bluffs.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: In a sense, it’s actually better that Kherson should be defended largely by Mobiliks. What Ukraine mostly needs now is POWs for exchange, and those raw recruits should be much easier to encourage to surrender.
The sight of tens of thousands of Russian newly-mobilized soldiers being marched off to POW camps is certain to leak into Russian Telegram feeds, as will messages home, and an overlay of inserted subtle Ukrainian counter-propaganda messaging. It’s bound to be toxic to the regime. All the more so because they seem incapable of shutting off Telegram for any extended period of time.