I actually have to get some work done today for a client, since I got nothing done yesterday or the day before, and I have a Friday deadline!
Can you guys help fill in the blanks on the results that aren’t covered in the previous posts?
I’m going to ask BlueGuitarist to find results for the down-ballot races that we hope had reverse coattails, so I haven’t included those below.
Thanks for any information you guys are up for providing!
WaterGirl
Here’s what I am aware of so far:
WaterGirl
Attorney General races:
WaterGirl
State Supreme Court, OH and NC went down. What about MI?
WaterGirl
U.S. House races. Can you share results for the ones that aren’t listed in comment #1?
WaterGirl
Governor races: Crist lost, Stacey Abrams lost. Janet Mills won, yay! What about Katie Hobbs and Steve Sisolak? Still no results yet?
WaterGirl
Of course we still don’t know about Catherine Cortez-Masto, but I’ll add her here anyway for completeness.
TaMara
I’ll keep an eye on Caraveo and add as soon as we know. :-)
PaulB
Alaska’s Peltola is not on track to win outright, but with 47.1% of the vote to Palin’s 26.6%, it’s a virtual certainty that she will win when the ranked-choice votes are counted.
Mike E
@WaterGirl: I’ll characterize the Don Davis win as a flip even though he replaces Butterfield because that district has changed, though not as much as Nickel’s (obviously)… NC went from 8-5 repub to 7-7 Dem, kicking one of their seats to the curb and picking two!
PaulB
Illinois House candidate Eric Sorenson has won.
James E Powell
I look at those Ohio results & it seems to me that Our Tim never had a chance. Ohio has to be regarded as a completely red state, vestigial Democrat Sherrod Brown notwithstanding. That doesn’t mean we don’t compete there, it just means we have to adjust expectations to like Missouri levels. I think we have better chances in North Carolina.
PaulB
Gabe Vasquez, in New Mexico, is up by 963 votes with 99% of the votes in. The race has not been called.
PaulB
Deleted, since it’s already been noted above.
Josie
Henry Cuellar – Tx – House – hold
Old School
@WaterGirl:
Attorneys General
Aaron Ford (NV) – Leading, but not called
Jen Jordan (GA) – Lost
Josh Kaul (WI) – Won
Kris Mayes (AZ) – Leading, but not called
Rochelle Garza (TX) – Lost
TaMara
@James E Powell: I really, really don’t want to give up on Ohio…but I understand it may be necessary.
Kent
Here in the WA 3rd Balloon-Juice supported Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is leading vile MAGAt Joe Kent 53-47 with 54% of the vote counted. We probably won’t get another vote count drop until this afternoon/evening as we are all mail-in voting and they scan the ballots in batches in each county.
NYT still has the race favoring Kent and I don’t quite understand the math. The district is 1/2 suburban Portland (Vancouver/Camas) and about 1/2 rural red MAGA land. In terms of the vote counted so far, Perez is winning Clark County (Vancouver) by +18 but losing by double digit percentages in all the rural counties. But of the remaining vote to count it looks like well over half of it is still in Clark County.
For reference, Clark County was exactly 50/50 Clinton/Trump in 2016 and went for Biden by about +4 in 2020. So winning Clark by +18 is huge if that holds up. And Perez isn’t even from Clark County, she is from rural Skamania County.
Who the hell knows, I guess we will soon enough. This would have been a shoe-in race for Jamie Hererra Beutler had the Trumpers not beat her in the primary. So there’s that.
Old School
@WaterGirl:
Governor
Katie Hobbs (AZ) – Leading, but not called
Steve Sisolak (NV) – Losing, but not called
Almost Retired
Don’t forget the Michigan ballot proposal we supported, expanding early voting and drop boxes in that state, among other election protection provisions. It won with nearly 60%, making it harder to suppress the vote in MI.
Kelly
Jamie McCleod-Skinner, OR CD 5, not called, currently trailing 48 to 52 with 48% of the votes counted.
PaulB
House results so far:
Andrea Salinas – Leading by 4,572 votes with 66% of the votes in
Brad Pfaff – Lost
Elaine Luria – Lost (noted above)
Emilia Sykes – Won (noted above)
Eric Sorenson – Won
Gabe Vasquez – Leading by 963 votes with 99% of the votes in
Greg Landsman – Won (noted above)
Jamie McLeod-Skinner – Losing by 9,419 votes with 74% of the votes in
Jevin Hodge – Leading by 4,455 votes with 71% of the votes in
Josh Riley – Losing by 6,185 votes with 99% of the votes in
Marcy Kaptur – Won (noted above)
Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez – Leading by 11,123 votes with 59% of the votes in
Mary Peltola – Likely winner once ranked-choice votes are counted
Mercedes Krause – Lost
Sharice Davids – Won (noted above)
Susan Wild – Leading by 4,713 votes with 96% of the votes in
Susie Lee – Leading by 1,702 votes with 86% of the votes in
Tony Vargas – Lost
Yadira Caraveo – Leading by 3,451 votes with 65% of the votes in
PaulB
Not on our list, but it looks like Mandela Barnes has been defeated by Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. The race has just been called.
C Stars
@Almost Retired: oh, that’s good news indeed
Mike E
@James E Powell: NC won’t be your huckleberry, sadly. Florida/Texas, here we come!
WaterGirl
@PaulB: Yay! is that a hold or a pickup?
By the way, your comments are so helpful. You usually say that Democrat x won in x state. So helpful so I don’t have to google to make sure it’s not a R that won or which state it is.
gus
@Watergirl: A hold. Cheri Bustos was the incumbent, chose not to run in ’22.
WaterGirl
@Josie: Thank you!
WaterGirl
@Old School: Wow, TX and GA were not good nights for us, except hopefully Rev. Warnock.
I had no idea the Josh Kaul race had been called. Yay!
WaterGirl
@Old School: Thanks for the update! Fingers crossed for both. You never know!
WaterGirl
@Almost Retired: Yes! It’s on the list at #1 under:
Critical State Initiatives Passed
I have to think the two initiatives – where they were registering people in order to have them sign petitions – made a big difference in the MI results.
Matt McIrvin
3 of the 4 Massachusetts ballot questions have been called.
The one that hasn’t is the millionaire’s tax, Question 1, which is narrowly leading.
Question 2 (require dental insurers to devote some % of funds to providing service): Yes
Question 3 (liberalization of liquor laws, but, broadly, in a manner to favor liquor stores over food markets): No
Question 4 (retain driver’s license access for undocumented immigrants): Yes
RaflW
FWIW I was able, through a weird artifact of twitter on a browser, to see who posted the misleading/wrong tweet about Caraveo at 1:30 in the morning WI time. It was Fox 31 KDVR. Sorry about the mixup. I wouldn’t have posted or gotten stoked if it had been a person or outside media, but it was a Colorado blue check news feed. But even those make mistakes!
A 9 News Next reporter just said Adams County won’t have their results for the CO-08 race till 1pm MST. So we wait.
James E Powell
@TaMara:
I don’t believe in giving up on any state, but if Democrats are going to return to competitive, it will have to be Next Gen Democrats. Since I don’t live there anymore, I have no idea who any of them are or who they could be. Shontel Brown? Andrew Ginther? I don’t know any other names.
MomSense
@PaulB:
Damn we really need ranked choice everywhere. Going to save Golden too. Would have saved Beasley
RaflW
@James E Powell: Posted in maybe thread two last night about OH. Maybe Kay has a different view, and I’d defer to her if so.
But I believe that if Tim Ryan hadn’t run as hard and as smart as he did, I do not believe we’d be waking up today to the OH House delegation being 10-5. We can’t know for sure what it woulda been, but I’d guess at least 11-4, maybe 12-3.
Landsman and Sykes probably benefitted significantly from his efforts (I say that in comparison to if a minor Dem player with limited fundraising appeal or ability to connect with issues/voters was fielded). It’s expensive, and heart breaking, but we have to contest every Senate seat with our A game.
Yes, even FL. Yes, even TX or OH.
MomSense
@RaflW:
I also think a lot of our winning Democratic Governors benefitted from Republicans having to spend money in TX and GA even though it is so damned painful to lose those.
Matt McIrvin
@MomSense: Granted with that vote count, Peltola would win a first-past-the-post election outright, too. If anything the ranked-choice system gave Palin more of a chance. (But I suppose the counterargument is that having such a system encourages third-party candidates to exist.)
WaterGirl
@PaulB: Thanks for the updates on all of those!
WaterGirl
@PaulB: Fuck. I really wanted him to win. At least it’s not a pickup for the Rs, seat-wise.
GibberJack
Thank you, WaterGirl, for all your effort on this election.
WaterGirl
@gus: Thank you!
WaterGirl
@RaflW: Appreciate the update.
WaterGirl
@GibberJack: Very kind of you to say, thank you.
RaflW
@Mike E: North Carolina House races were one of the bright spots that helped me get to sleep at 2am (poor quality sleep though it might still have been). Props to the campaigns and voters there!
James E Powell
@RaflW:
I’ve said we have to compete everywhere. In fact, I’m pretty sure I’ve been saying that since before there were blogs.
RaflW
So, as some folks here may have heard me mention, our family has a cabin in WI. My BF and I have been here, helping our friend in her quixotic run for the State Assembly. We’re incredibly proud of her, even as she lost (her seat was open because the assemblywoman Amy Loudenbeck is seeking the S.O.S. office – and currently ahead by 148 votes with 2,512,463 votes counted. EEEP).
We’re a bit crushed by the returns for Mandela Barnes. But we feel like Evers being retained, a legislative supermajority being avoided, and Josh Kaul being A.G., we as a openly gay & political couple (4′ x 4′ yard sign for our unabashedly pro-choice Assembly candidate here at the cabin!) that we’re acceptable safe for the time being.
And our home state of MN flipping the state Senate blue? WooHoo. Trifecta! Take that, MN GOP. Your swing towards Trumpism didn’t connect with voters
eta: @James E Powell sorry if that read as combative rather than supportive of your view! I’m still kinda hopped up from all the news, pending results, and weird sleep.
Paul W.
Minnesota flipped to total legislative control for Dems! https://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/sessiondaily/Story/17479
We do need to list underperformance/gerrymander in NY as a big disappointment (though not terminal in the FL is). And of course FL itself.
Can we list as a positive some things not directly about wins/losses?
James E Powell
@RaflW:
No worries. Just wanted to be clear. I’m a no defeat, no surrender person. We are not contesting ideas in these elections, we are fighting evil.
Paul W.
I missed the edit window, but this tweet recaps a lot of the news as well!:
https://twitter.com/JessicaPost/status/1590346261257162752?s=20&t=-WEhJadab0dVWsCM5Ae8fw
Madeleine
@Almost Retired: Thanks for the 60% info. I hadn’t found it yet. This is HUGE!
Wolvesvalley
NBC has projected Susan Wild as the winner in PA-07.
If the relative percentages of the already-counted votes persist in the not-yet-counted ones, I have figured out that she will win by 4,388 votes (155,241 to 150,852). But the remaining votes are almost certainly mail-in ones (which tend to be from Democratic voters), so I think her final margin will be somewhat larger.
AM in NC
@James E Powell: This North Carolinian likes that plan. We are unfortunately gerrymandered to hell and back, but we have a Democratic Governor and Attorney General (who will probably be the Dem frontrunner after our Gov. is term limited out), and our Senate races are always close.
If we could expand capacity building in more rural and exurban areas, I think we could start making real gains in state-wide and some close state legislature districts. We need a 100 county Democratic Party presence, and not just working the 2 months before the elections.
Would love to see NC put on the “long term capacity building with local groups” BJ list for next cycle. We should and could be Virginia instead of South Carolina!
JimV
I just want to personally thank WaterGirl for all her work here. I’ve never donated as much as in this election, because I wasn’t as sure it was going to do some good.
Mousebumples
Belated – I know Brad Pfaff won, but I’d like to think our $ helped Tony Evers win. So thanks to everyone who chipped in!
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples: I think you meant Brad Pfaff lost?