Part 2
Here’s a thread where we can post races that have been called for one candidate or the other. Please don’t assume that we all know which state a certain candidate is in or even what particular office was won or lot.
I can’t be the only person that can’t track everyone in my head, right? :-)
That will leave other threads safe for folks who don’t want to know until everything is over.
BLUE WINS TONIGHT
Democratic Governors
California – Gavin Newsom
Colorado – Jared Polis
Connecticut – Ned Lamont
Illinois – J.B. Pritzker
Maine – Janet Mills
Maryland – Wes Moore (flip)
Massachusetts – Maura Healey (flip)
Michigan – Gretchen Whitmer
New Mexico – Michelle Lujan Grisham
Pennsylvania – Josh Shapiro (hold)
Wisconsin – Tony Evers
Democratic Senators
California – Alex Padilla (hold)
Colorado – Michael Bennet (hold)
Connecticut – Richard Blumenthal (hold)
Maryland – Chris Van Hollen (hold)
New Hampshire – Maggie Hassan (hold)
Oregon – Ron Wyden (hold)
Pennsylvania – John Fetterman (flip)
Washington – Patty Murray (hol)
Democratic House
Connecticut – Courtney (hold)
Florida – Max Frost (hold)
Florida – Robert Wexler (hold)
Hawaii – Brian Schatz (hold)
Illinois – Lauren Underwood (hold)
Illinois – Nikki Budzinski (pickup)
Indiana – Frank Mrvan (hold)
Kansas – Sharice Davids (hold)
Maine – Chellie Pingree (hold)
Michigan – Hillary Scholten (pickup!)
New Mexico – Teresa Fernández (hold)
New Mexico – Melanie Stansbury (hold)
New York – joe Morelle (hol)
North Carolina – Wiley Nickel (pickup!)
Ohio – Emilia Sykes (hold)
Ohio – Greg Landsman (pickup!)
Ohio – Marcy Kaptur (hold)
Pennsylvania – Summer Lee (hold)
Pennsylvania – Chrissy Houlahan (hold)
Rhode Island – Seth Magaziner (hold)
Texas – Vicente Gonzalez (pickup!)
Virginia – Abigail Spanberger (hold)
Washington – Adam Smith (hold)
Washington – Pramila Jayapal (hold)
Washington – Susan DelBene (hold)
Washington – Kilmer (hold)
Washington – Larson (hold)
Secretaries of State
Michigan – Jocelyn Benson
Attorneys General
x
State Supreme Court
x
DISAPPOINTMENTS
Governors
Beto
Stacey Abrams
Charlie Crist
Senate
Tim Ryan doesn’t defeat Vance
Cherie Beasley does not pick up a senate seat in NC
House
Elaine Luria
Secretaries of State
Georgia – Bee Nguyen
Attorneys General
x
State Supreme Court
both seats in NC flipped to Republicans
WaterGirl
If somebody could check my work and let me know who I missed, that would be a big help.
Also, are any of the other House seats that don’t say “keep” pickups? Or just new faces in previous DEM seats?
Anoniminous
Stansbury keeps NM CD 1 for the Dems.
And Fernandez was a keep as well.
Jerzy Russian
Thanks to Watergirl and everyone else for the threads and updates. I at least sleep relatively comfortably tonight.
trollhattan
Side comment about CA Senator Padilla: he’s on the ballot twice: once for completing the current term as Kamala Harris’ replacement and the other for serving the next six-year term. Constitutional quirk.
As an MIT grad he shares something with our own Prof Levenson. (And my bro.)
Jerzy Russian
@trollhattan:
It will be interesting to see how many people voted differently on these two lines. One would think you would either vote “yes” to both or vote “no” to both, but I am sure there are some yahoos out there who split the vote.
WaterGirl
If you can suggest additions to the disappointments list, that would be helpful!
Marleedog
Congress:
Virginia:
Spanberger win
Wexler win
Luria loss
Rhode Island:
Magaziner win
WaterGirl
@Anoniminous: Who is Fernandez, and what race?
frosty
I swore I wouldn’t watch the news or track the results until tomorrow and then you had to put up these two posts. But in fairness, this is a much less annoying way to find out than any TV or cable station or most liveblogs. So thanks. I guess. (Still have bourbon and potato chips)
ETA. I knocked 185 doors and talked to 63 of them in the last two weekends. All but about eight were rock solid voting Dem straight down the ballot. So I got a little teary when I saw the race declared for Josh Shapiro.
Alison Rose
@trollhattan: Yeah, it was weird looking. Probably confused some people but not enough to matter.
Omnes Omnibus
@trollhattan: TL teaches at MIT, but his degree is from the school across the river.
Anoniminous
@WaterGirl:
Sorry …. NM CD3
trollhattan
@Jerzy Russian: Yeah, weird. “I voted for him but twice? What’s de done for me to earn that?”
trollhattan
@Omnes Omnibus: There’s a prank for that.
gwangung
@Omnes Omnibus: Though, TBH, having a degree OR being faculty there is pretty damn impressive to me.
Omnes Omnibus
My take on the WI races: Barnes probably doesn’t pull it out.* Dems will win the rest of the statewide races.
*He still could, but it’s becoming a longer and longer shot.
tobie
Warnock’s pulled ahead on the NYT tracker by a hair. Still below 50%
Hitchhiker
This is the only place I want to be on election night, win or lose. Thank you all so much.
Marleedog
In CT, Lamont is the governor reelected, Blumenthal is the Senator. Also reelected.
WaterGirl
@Marleedog: Is Magaziner a pickup?
Martin
California, per CNN: Called for Dems:
CA-15, CA-34, CA-37 are between two dems, so they’re all D seats, we just don’t know which D.
O. Felix Culpa
@Anoniminous: Gabe is still leading CD2 with 94% of the vote counted. Fingers crossed!
ETA: just checked the NM SOS website. They’re now in a dead heat, with the vile Herrell a whisker ahead. Blurgh. But it ain’t over yet.
BeautifulPlumage
WA House: Kilmer & Larson keep their Dem seats & Newhouse keeps a Rep seat
John Cole
Looking not too terrible.
WaterGirl
@Marleedog: when I was looking for Lamont’s first name, I saw an article that it’s too close to call. Did someone call that race?
Kay
NYTimes has “race for congress is tight, with no sign of red wave” which is good – factual- but doesn’t make up for their gross promotion of the “red wave” for the last 2 months.
WaterGirl
@BeautifulPlumage:
So is Newhouse a pickup, then?
HumboldtBlue
I do have it easy and have since I ended up behind the Redwood Curtain some 19 years ago.
I have voted for both Mike Thompson (our former rep) and Jared Huffman (our current rep) and that’s cool. And easy.
Martin
In CA, 4 house seats called for GOP, with GOP leading in 4 more. CA is currently 42D/11R. So if the current leads hold, that’s a pick up of 2 D seats. Many of these races have very few votes counted though, so I wouldn’t read anything into the state of the leads. CNN has the benefit of their exit polls to help call races. I can’t see those.
JWR
Here’s an easy to navigate results page from NBC. Just click on races to want to see and hover over for a handy pop-up.
WaterGirl
@O. Felix Culpa: I will cross everything for Gabe.
Alison Rose
@Kay: You can practically hear their little feet stomping. “Where’s our red wave???”
Anoniminous
@WaterGirl:
It’s a hold
Alison Rose
@HumboldtBlue: Heh, my reps have been the reverse, used to be Huffman, now Thompson. Both good dudes, though!
WaterGirl
@Marleedog: Yeah, I was surprised a few minutes ago, when I went to add Lamont, to find that I had put Blumenthal up there as governor. I guess I lost my mind for a second.
Gary K
Boy, that name Magaziner stirred up an old memory. I just learned that he exists, but his dad Ira was well-known on the campus of Brown in the late 60s. Amazingly, he was one of the chief designers of a revamped curriculum there — while an undergraduate! The essence of the curriculum is that there are no course requirements except to have a major, and it’s still the Brown curriculum today.
danielx
@Omnes Omnibus:
I was SO looking forward to seeing that douche canoe Johnson getting kicked to the curb.
TaMara
Dang I was hoping McMullin would do better in UT
Martin
Guessing half a dozen CA house races take 1-2 weeks before the can be called. Here in CA-47 Porter had a harder race than in 2020 because of redistricting. Still favored, but it took 2 weeks in 2018 to call it, and I’m guessing it does so again. I’ll be able to provide some projections once the state turns on their uncounted ballot data. Should be tomorrow when that shows up. I expect there will be around 5 million ballots uncounted after today.
Ksmiami
@Alison Rose: “Don’t you be tapping your last year Prada shoes at me honey…”
Soprano2
CNN is saying it’s still likely that R’s will win the House, and all I can think is “Kevin McCarthy welcome to your 3 seat majority hell.” or whatever small majority it is. Now they’re talking about how they missed “something”, but they don’t know what. It’s Dobbs, you dummies
So glad I’ll be able to sleep tonight, although I’m still worried about the Senate. We have to keep it because of judges and appointments.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Hope you’re right about the wins and wrong about Barnes.
Highway Rob
Longtime lurker who’d drifted away. On a night where I was very worried about where our country was going, the first place I logged on after a self-imposed news blackout was back here. In all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about Elon’s Twitter (of which I’m quite guilty), I remembered that Cole had a place that has been a solid community since before Obama’s first win. And here we are, with Diamond Joe having outperformed every first term incumbent in recent memory. Glad I remembered to be at this site tonight.
Thanks John, thanks to the commentariat, and I’ll stop now because too much saccharine gives you cancer.
O. Felix Culpa
@WaterGirl: Thanks! That would be a D pickup.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@HumboldtBlue: And they are both good guys, too, so voting for them is a pleasure :-)
Steeplejack
Probably a good idea to put complete names and races, or at least states, for the disappointments.
sab
I am thrilled about Emilia Sykes winning.
I am sad but not sirprised about Tim Ryan losing. He ran as Republican light, so of course in Ohio the real Republican won.
danielx
@Soprano2:
Something to look forward to: Kevin McCarthy biting the head off a live bat while at the Speaker’s podium to appease MTG and her co-conspirators.
WaterGirl
@frosty: I tried to make them gentle, not shouting losses from the rooftops.
I hope it doesn’t sound dumb or obnoxious to say that I’m proud of you for all your work knocking doors.
BeautifulPlumage
@WaterGirl: no, republican stays republican
Jerzy Russian
The FYNYT has Warnock at 49.32% and Walker at 48.62%, with 91% of the votes in. Could Warnock pull this out after all?
Marleedog
@WaterGirl: NBC News has projected Lamont, the democratic incumbent, as the winner in the race against Republican challenger Bob Stefanowski.
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/decision-2022/lamont-leads-the-polls-as-votes-start-to-come-in-for-governors-race/2911500/
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
So obvious it was missed: Newsome Gov CA (kept)
dm
@gwangung: Well, Rep. Thomas Massie, Putinist from Kentucky with fully-armed Christmas cards pulls the average down a lot.
Eolirin
@Jerzy Russian: He needs to cross 50%, so, unlikely. But in the runoff? Here’s hoping.
Anoniminous
@Soprano2:
Don’t believe it. GOP aren’t flipping the number of seats they need to take control
Martin
In my above list, all Ds are keep. CA 42 was an open seat. The 4 R seats called are all keeps for them. Of the 15 remaining races, 7 have D incumbents and 6 have R and 2 are open seats.
WaterGirl
@Hitchhiker: Yeah, if I have to hear about losses, I would rather learn about them here.
Barbara
I know many races haven’t been officially called, but I am so happy that there doesn’t seem to be a “red mirage” in any key races so far. Especially in PA, where the legislature tried to stack the deck against the legitimacy of early votes of any kind.
Gary K
@Jerzy Russian: Pulling it out, i.e., winnning outright tonight, requires that he go over 50%. Otherwise it’s headed to a runoff. (Someone already said this, I see.)
Will
Jon Ralston sounding worried about Mastro in Nevada.
Sounds like we may have to pour everything into a Georgia run-off again.
Mike in Oly
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is ahead in WA-3 right now, tho it is early. This would be a pick-up.
Martin
@Jerzy Russian: Warnock only loses if Walker crosses 50%. Otherwise it goes to a runoff between those two, and we start this all over again.
Eolirin
@Will: Fuck. We actually need 51 going into 2024. Manchin is up and there’s no way we’re keeping that seat. No pickup opportunities either.
Hopefully the worry doesn’t pan out.
Alison Rose
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): Yeah, called at 8:02, LOL.
Princess
I see a number of pundits saying things like, only Dobbs saved Dems from a terrible night. Thing they don’t realize — Dobbs isn’t going away. It’s going to motivate people to vote with us for years.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: It just doesn’t look like there are enough votes still outstanding in Milwaukee and Madison to make up the difference for Barnes.
mvr
@Highway Rob: Yeah, I’ve been here mostly lurking for 15+ years and it does help with one’s sense that humanity is worth keeping around.
Jerzy Russian
@Gary K: Yes, I know. The “pulling it out” was winning outright with 50% + 1 vote. There seem to be enough outstanding votes for Warnock to get more than 50%, but of course not all of then will go to him. As I mentioned earlier, I have not gone digging into the county-by-county data to see which areas have not reported.
Barbara
@Princess: The devaluation of women continues apace.
Soprano2
Looks like recreational pot is going to pass in Missouri.
guachi
If Rs have a very small majority you can probably thank Ohio Republicans for ignoring the Supreme Court and for NY Democrats for not.
WaterGirl
@Soprano2: If the Rs have even a one-seat majority, it will be a hellish nightmare of bullshit investigations, impeachment, and no good legislation.
Martin
I like how CNN is highlighting Pelosi’s win. She’s currently ahead by 65 points. Real nail-biter that one.
JWR
@WaterGirl:
WG, I just left this downstairs.
WaterGirl
@Highway Rob: Not a total lurker because I remember your nym.
Welcome home.
tobie
Why is the NYTimes still saying Boerbert is likely to win when she’s down 3 points? Looking at the areas still to report, I don’t see her overtaking Frisch. How nice it would be to have Frisch in the House! Please, gods and goddesses, do us this favor.
O. Felix Culpa
@Martin: LOL.
Barbara
@Martin: The red coat tsunami . . .
WaterGirl
@Marleedog: Thank you.
Martin
@WaterGirl: The thing to look forward to is MTG being able to hold the GOP caucus hostage for all of her Q-Anon bullshit. All on national TV.
Just like with Manchin, the decisive GOP vote becomes the face of the party.
Plus, if their majority is that slim, I wouldn’t bet a penny on McCarthy winning the speakership. Think more like Jim Jordan. It’s going to be a fucking goat rodeo. It’s going to be glorious.
Omnes Omnibus
@JWR: If that is the case, then he is in okay shape.
Anoniminous
@tobie:
Because they’re fuckheads.
:-)
HumboldtBlue
@Alison Rose:
You’re the ones that first elected Huffman, correct? That was his first house win, yes?
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan):
Yeah they are.
phdesmond
@Marleedog:
that’s good. i watched Conn. political ads on msnbc all summer and fall. Glad Lamont will stay governor.
TaMara
AND WE GOT FETTERMAN!!! NBC CALLS IT
Ksmiami
@Martin: they’ll be eating eachother in no time… Dems should lock them in chambers with 2 twinkies and one water bottle and put it on ppv
guachi
If the House were as gerrymandered for Ds as it is for Rs then the Democrats would probably be winning 240 seats tonight.
Princess
@Barbara: Like we’re going to forget we have uteruses.
tobie
@Anoniminous: To the point; no lies detected.
Wyatt Salamanca
Fetterman wins!! Yeah bitches
O. Felix Culpa
@TaMara: Woot!
Omnes Omnibus
Fetterman!
SpaceUnit
@TaMara:
Woo Hoo!
Martin
I seriously might start trolling in favor of that old plan for Trump to be elected Speaker of the House if it’s a tight R win in the House. God doesn’t love me enough to make that happen though.
Tinare
Senator Fetterman!
Soprano2
@WaterGirl: Yeah, I know. I was thinking of how absolutely batshit insane their members will be. It’s an open secret many voters don’t seem to be aware of that all the R’s will do is have endless bullshit investigations. They have no answer for inflation, not that the press ever asked them about that.
Mai Naem mobile
Dr Oz can finally go back and shop for crudites in NJ.
John Cole
FETTERMAN!
And I think Warnock pulls it out. Only votes left to count are mail-ins with highr Democratic %’s.
Martin
@guachi: Oh, easily.
TaMara
@tobie: I honestly don’t know what’s outstanding, but most CO pundits are thinking she’s toast, but not saying it directly.
ETA: FTFNYT
Omnes Omnibus
@Princess: You have what now?
Anoniminous
Pa called for Fetterman
Mike E
Disappointment – Cherie Beasley losing to Ted Budd
Triumph – NC will be sending seven (7) Dems to the US House… you’re welcome, America!
BeautifulPlumage
Warnock now 49.4 to Walker 48.6 with 96% reported
WaterGirl
@TaMara: oh my god, that is so wonderful!!!
guachi
@Martin: I’ve been doing that on Twitter for the last hour or so.
Martin
@Tinare: Good job PA. I am very proud of my former place of residence.
Mike E
@John Cole: he needs 50% but I believe the runoff would favor Warnock.
Aussie Sheila
@Martin:
Yes. But the Dems could still hold the house. If they don’t a single figure majority for repugs could see McCarthy lose his Speakership.
Glorious indeed.
frosty
@WaterGirl: No, it’s fine. It’s really a painless way to see the results. I haven’t watched news on TV for at least a decade!
Thanks for the thanks on the doors. I feel like I’m bragging when I write it but it’s just the facts, ma’am. If you can walk a mile or two and you’re the least bit extroverted (or can fake it) it’s not that tough. But almost twenty years, and I haven’t convinced any of my Maryland friends to join me. Bastards!
PS I burn out at about 30 doors. The last 10-15 are a slog.
Alison Rose
@HumboldtBlue: Pretty sure, yeah! Then they decided to do some Sharpie-ing of the districts, I guess.
Ohio Mom
@Highway Rob: Oh, Stay! And unlurk!
WaterGirl
@John Cole: Pulls it out with a win outright, or pulls it out in that he doesn’t lose?
Alison Rose
@BeautifulPlumage: Crossing all my fingers and toes and trying to make the cat cross hers, too.
Anoniminous
Nevada and Arizona are both looking really good for Dem holds.
TaMara
@Mike E: Point made by someone at MSNBC, if Dems control the Senate, and Warnock is in a runoff, what’s the point of Rep showing up to vote for Walker? Enthusiasm gap
Martin
Control of the house might seriously come down to CA. The redistricting created a lot of competitive districts. This could go either way – Dems losing 4 seats, or gaining 4. Gonna take a while though.
RaflW
This really should go into Dem (and BJ) thinking about the path forward. I think it’s very correct. If Dems had put up a lackluster Senate candidate, I don’t think the OH House delegation for 23-24 would look like it now shall.
WaterGirl
@Mike E:
That’s awesome!
Are any of them pickups? Or all seats that were held?
I only have one listed, can you give me the first and last names of the others?
SFAW
Pollyanna that I am, I see a potential silver lining in DeathSantis’s win: that Charlie Crist retires from politics completely, 100 percent no backsies, forever. I am so tired of seeing that useless fuck’s name in anything related to Demon-rat campaigns.
Of course, the Florida electorate is, as Shakespeare (I think) said, “fucked in the head.” DeathSantis by 20 points? Rubio by more than 15 points? JHC.
I apologize to Betty Cracker (and other Floridians) if I am out of line.
Anoniminous
Pritzer (D) projected winner Illinois Gov
TaMara
Boebert is down by 8k votes. I’m not sure she can make that up.
Martin
I’ll be monitoring CA house races for the next several hours, btw.
Alison Rose
@TaMara: YESSSSSSSSSS
WaterGirl
@Martin: Thank you for that!
I am not adding the zillion house reps from CA to the list, but I will keep your CA list, just separate. :-)
How nice to be able to count on CA for many things.
Origuy
Cortez Masto in Nevada is looking good. With 41% of the vote, she’s leading Laxalt 54.3 to 42.0. Interesting that Nevada has the option “None of the above”, which is getting 1.1%
Wyatt Salamanca
@TaMara:
Look forward to her getting swept into the trash receptacle of history where she belongs.
Mj_Oregon
Here in what used to be a safe Democratic House seat 5th district (Peter DeFazio retired), we will now have a MAGA woman as our rep. The state lege did a really poor job of redistricting to accommodate a new House seat back in 2020. I said in May when Curt Schrader, a reliable Dem, was ousted by someone I’d never heard of and looked to be waaaay too progressive for this newly drawn 5th District that she would lose. And so she was and we now have Lori Chavez-DeRemer as our new rep.
But we still have Ron Wyden as one of our Senators and it looks ATM that the Dem Tina Kotek is leading the R candidate for Governor by a whole 1%. Who knows how that will shake out by tomorrow.
I have chronic anxiety over all this so I’m going to go to bed and try to read for a while before my nightly bout with insomnia.
TaMara
So if we flip Boebert, and pick up Caraveo, does that count as two pickups for Dems from CO? I’m going to keep an eye on both of those for you WaterGirl.
Anoniminous
@TaMara:
Boebert was running below Trump’s vote and Frisch was running above, as much as 10 points, Biden’s count.
Unless something really weird happens Frisch should flip the seat.
RaflW
@Aussie Sheila: Glorious. Except for the fiscal cliff MTG will force whoever is Speaker to drive off of.
One of the Many Jens
Newhouse is a Republican (one of the few who voted to impeach Trump).
Mike E
@WaterGirl: NC House delegation went from 8-5 repub to 7-7 Dem. We rocked the redistricted map, knocking off one repub in the process.
Ohio Mom
@guachi: Ain’t that the truth.
trollhattan
@TaMara: How many rounds of ammo does she have ATM. More or fewer than 8k?
Anoniminous
@Mike E:
OUTSTANDING!
trollhattan
Sooo, over/under on Trump announcing next Tuesday?
Queen of Lurkers
@Jerzy Russian: Will go to run off if under 50%.
trollhattan
@Mike E: Sa-WEET. Go, NC!
SFAW
@TaMara:
My calculations might be off, but if I’m correct Boebert needs to win about 66 percent of the remaining votes in order to win. I have no idea if that’s feasible in her district — there are places that went 75 percent for TFG, after all, and DeathSantis got 60 percent gulag-wide — but it’s encouraging.
RaflW
This from Ben, who is from the ‘dystopia beat’ at NBC, seems bang on.
Anoniminous
MSNBC for most of the evening have been saying the GOP needed to pick-up one senator seat to take control of the Senate. Now they’re say they need two seats.
Warnock’s pulled ahead and is at 49% plus — usually metro Atlanta is the last to report so maybe we’ve won this one?
WaterGirl
@TaMara: I believe the answer to your question is yes. And thank you for keeping an eye on those!
Martin
@WaterGirl: I’d add them. It’ll cheer people up. California always rolls in like fucking Gandalf at Helms Deep.
WaterGirl
@Mike E: Go you guys!
Did you see my request for NC House names in this thread or the next one?
TaMara
@WaterGirl: Thanks, I wasn’t sure how they were counting these new districts (I guess yay we have more people now?)
frosty
@TaMara:
Fetterman and Shapiro both! Now I am going to cry in relief!!!
O. Felix Culpa
@Martin: Please tell me the huorns show up too.
Martin
@trollhattan: Oh, 100% he does. Garland would be well served putting an indictment out in the next 5 days.
frosty
@TaMara:
Fetterman and Shapiro both!?!! Now I am going to cry in relief. Thank you PA!!!
WaterGirl
@TaMara: Someone else who knows more than I do may tell me I am wrong!
Hmmm. if you guys got an extra seat, then some other state lost a seat. If the seat that was lost was a DEM seat, then I guess it wouldn’t be a pickup.
This is surely a question for Geminid! :-)
Anoniminous
@Martin:
@O. Felix Culpa:
“Baruk Khazâd! Khazâd ai-mênu!
WaterGirl
Is anyone watching the state supreme court races that we were funding?
Highway Rob
@Ohio Mom: @WaterGirl: Thanks! Means a lot.
Glidwrith
@WaterGirl: CA lost a seat. Couldn’t tell you who, what or where
🐾BillinGlendaleCA
@Martin: Hmmm, I had CA-11 as a real nail biter.
Anoniminous
I had totally forgotten Fetterman winning is a Dem Senate gain.
Aussie Sheila
@RaflW:
Na. The big republicans donors will not allow it. Too much riding on losing the worlds reserve currency. If they try, Biden should stand firm, and not try to negotiate away any social programs to stop it. People respect strength not weakness in the face of bullies.
Ohio Mom
@RaflW: We discussed this in the first thread. Tim Ryan made some bad miscalculations.
The postmortem on the first thread made me feel better in a way. It was like when my favorite aunt died. At first it was a gut punch out of nowhere but after I heard more about the health issues she’d been keeping quiet, I saw that it had all been brewing for a long time. It was inevitable.
Same with Ryan — not being proudly and loudly enough Blue, not making more of a fuss about Dobbs, not working enough with the Black woman Democrats in Ohio’s Cleveland area, not pulling in Obama and Biden to campaign with him — he bet on white men union workers and that wasn’t enough.
But he did have great commercials.
WaterGirl
Is anyone watching the Attorney General races we were funding?
Alison Rose
@Martin: LOLOL! “At night, look to the West.”
WaterGirl
Is anyone watching the Secretary of State races we were funding?
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Josh Kaul at 51.7% to 49.3
LaFollette at 49.3% to 47
Geoduck
I suppose Crist should be officially added to the Disappointments column.
SFAW
@🐾BillinGlendaleCA:
As well you should; it’s obvious that all of Pelosi’s votes were from Illegal Immigrants bused in from Evil Blue States to etc etc
Will
@Ohio Mom: Do you think a more liberal candidate than Ryan would win Ohio somehow? Ryan is actually super liber when it comes to the economy.
Would a more liberal candidate just lose but also lose by margins in areas that Ryan did well in that allowed Democrats to carry some Ohio seats they weren’t expected to?
Martin
@O. Felix Culpa: I’ll keep you posted on that one. Fancy data probably won’t show up until tomorrow though.
Glidwrith
@WaterGirl: Fontes has the lead as of 49 minutes ago
O. Felix Culpa
@Geoduck: Heh. I was pre-disappointed with him.
WaterGirl
@Geoduck: Yes, thank you.
HumboldtBlue
Fetterman!
WE HELD THE LINE!
His acceptance speech is epic!
Princess
@WaterGirl: LaFolette leads in Wi
tobie
@Mj_Oregon: That sucks. Progressives always overestimate their popularity with anyone outside of the Democratic base. Fetterman had the good sense to refashion himself as a mainstream Dem to win the primary and then the election.
Cameron
@Martin: Glorious? I don’t think so. Benghazi-gate will be nothing compared to the Hunter Biden witch trials. If they didn’t have to take all of that swollen vacation time that our elected leaders are given, it’d be 24/7/365 hearings.
Martin
@Glidwrith: Yeah, basically every district was redrawn, so you can’t really point to any specific place.
mvr
It will be tomorrow that we find out whether Vargas (D who we backed) won or lost NE02. He’s behind but not by a lot and there are still ballots to be counted.
Good news – the minimum wage is going up.
Bad News – our governors family funded voter ID law passed. (And we traded one crap R governor for another who seems to be a puppet of the first one.)
Don’t know whether enough decent legislators won to keep abortion legal by fillibuster, yes or no. It is close.
SFAW
@Geoduck:
I want him added to the “moved to Wyoming to try for Liz Cheney’s former seat” column.
phdesmond
the Grauniad:
CNN projection: John Fetterman wins PA. A Dem pickup. Now GOP has to win Nevada and Georgia — which looks likely to go to a December runoff — to take back majority. In Arizona, Mark Kelly is up by 17 points with 52 percent reporting
Alison Rose
@WaterGirl: Aguilar currently up 54.4 to 42 with 34% reporting. But I don’t know about the makeup of the remaining precincts.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: @Glidwrith: @Alison Rose:
Thanks for the updates on our election protection peeps. They are all super important related to voting and Dobbs. Not to mention critical to 2024.
Princess
@Will: How about a Ryan who didn’t see it as either/or? Who talked to union guys and urban Black women, and about Dobbs? Doesn’t need to be someone who runs further left. Biden’s s good model of this actually. Union-folksy but says nice things to trans kids.
trollhattan
@SFAW: Worse, they’re all BART turnstile jumpers. [shudder]
Anoniminous
Polis (D) projected winner of Colorado Gov
Martin
@Cameron: Voters hate that shit. It’s annoying but doesn’t hurt Dems, and distracts the GOP from doing actual damage. The more bananas it is, the easier 2024 becomes for Dems across the board.
Play the long game.
WaterGirl
Kay made a comment about the MI supreme court, but without details, so I don’t know the status of those.
WaterGirl
@Anoniminous: I had him awhile ago, maybe we jumped the gun!
frosty
After all those moneybleg emails, Fetterman had better thank me for supporting him! Right???
Eolirin
@Princess: Sherrod Brown is the person to emulate in Ohio. He’s the only Dem who seems to be able to win there.
Ohio Mom
@Will: I don’t know. Sherrod Brown has won twice now and he is definitely very liberal. But maybe we only can have one liberal in Ohio
Also the new Dem seat, OH-1, is a gerrymandered bone the Republicans threw us when they were gerrymandering the rest of the state against us. It’s where I live. It wasn’t a sure bet but it was a good bet. Even though our candidate was lackluster.
Alison Rose
@trollhattan: I heard they also started no-pants day on BART. The most grievous sin.
Glidwrith
@WaterGirl: La Follette leading with 49.3%
trollhattan
I expect listening to BBC overnight, to hear some puzzlement that Biden Democrats are not being more severely punished for losing Afghanistan. Yeah, they’re still stuck on that.
Eolirin
@Martin: Still rather win, now.
Omnes Omnibus
Evers wins WI Gov.
WaterGirl
@Ohio Mom: Seems like Sherrod has been there longer than that. Am I wrong about that?
Anoniminous
@WaterGirl:
Or I’m oblivious & didn’t notice.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes!
BlueGuitarist
NBC calls WISC Evers D. Gov reelected
SFAW
@trollhattan:
Bart’s a cartoon-character, he can’t vote.
trollhattan
@Alison Rose: BAud Rapid Transit? “Now, serving the Peninsula, too! Please check your pants with an attendant.”
Eolirin
@WaterGirl: He has. He’s been there since 2007, so on his third term.
SFAW
@Ohio Mom:
Cole’s “Highlander” thread was about something else, I think?
BlueGuitarist
For list at top
House:
FL Maxwell Frost hold D open seat (Demings)
NM Teresa Fernández NM-03 re-elected
NC Wiley Nickel NC-13, pickup R open seat (Budd)
OH Emilia Sykes hold D open seat (Ryan)
PA Summer Lee PA-12 hold D open seat (Doyle)
RI Magaziner RI-02 hold D open seat (Langevin)
WA Newhouse WA-04 is a Republican re-elected
Governors:
Moore (MD) Healey (MA) are both flips. Shapiro (PA) holds open D seat;
other Dems = incumbents reelected.
Senators: Fetterman flips R seat; other Dems= incumbents reelected
Martin
@SFAW: This is California. Everyone gets to vote.
O. Felix Culpa
NM CD2 is now reported to be a dead heat, with 168 votes between the two candidates. It is potentially a D pickup, but hanging by a thread. Might go into automatic recount if it stays this close.
phdesmond
the Grauniad:
Democrat Gretchen Whitmer has won reelection as Michigan’s governor, the Associated Press reports, beating Republican challenger Tudor Dixon.
Martin
@Eolirin: Of course. But sometimes you’re forced to manage your loss.
Glidwrith
@WaterGirl: Bee Nguyen lost to SOS Rafburglar at 53%
trollhattan
@phdesmond: That Woman in Michigan! Wonderful, became a big fan when she stared Trump down. Good job, Michigan.
Ohio Mom
@WaterGirl: He was a Congressman before he was a Senator so his name has been around a while.
just googled, it’s been three terms as Senator — how time flies. And I forgot he was SOS too.
Anyway
So psyched and happy about Fetterman’s win! * He sounded great in his victory speech just now — I missed the debate clips where he had speech issues.
* extremely glad that we won’t have to listen to s-cat crowing “I told you so” 10 years from now… :-/
frosty
@HumboldtBlue:
Link? I can’t find it.
Eolirin
Mostly waiting on NV and WI senate races, since the house situation is gonna take forever.
Hoping we sweep in AZ too.
Anoniminous
@O. Felix Culpa:
If it is that close then the losing party will certainly fund a recount.
Anyway
Very happy about Dem Govs winning MI, WI, IL, MN — lessens the potential for Rethug ratfuckery in 2024
🐾BillinGlendaleCA
@Alison Rose:
I wonder how long it will be before Baud moves to the Bay Area.
frosty
@Alison Rose: Oh, it’s not just BART. It’s worldwide!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Pants_Subway_Ride
Omnes Omnibus
@Eolirin:
I am not sure the WI race will be called tonight. I also expect a recount not matter which way it ends.
SFAW
@🐾BillinGlendaleCA:
Baud, like Elvis, is everywhere
WaterGirl
@Glidwrith: Well, shit. Thank you for the information!
Alison Rose
@Martin: Including Republicans.
All, what…345 of them?
HumboldtBlue
@frosty:
Sorry, I caught it on MSNBC
Martin
@Alison Rose: Of course. We’re democrats, we win fair.
WaterGirl
@Princess: Fingers crossed.
Ohio Mom
Well this has been therapeutic. I think I can brush my teeth and get some sleep, I feel reassured enough that Democrscy can hobble a bit further.
Thanks all! Sweet dreams.
frosty
@Ohio Mom: I feel the same way. Now to finish my snacks and crash!
Omnes Omnibus
@Alison Rose: Nearly twice as many CA voters voted for Trump than there are registered voters in Wisconsin.
trollhattan
In the spirit of all politics are local, I see my boss’ wife just won a city council seat. Now I know where to direct my complaints. “Why is recycling only every two weeks and garbage is weekly? The crown on my street is too high and water ponds onto my yard. Can you tell those darn kids to knock it off?”
Gonna be fun!
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: That feels more right. (I hope that’s not too close to the trees being just the right height.)
BlueGuitarist
US house
IL-13 D Nikki Budzinski wins open R seat, redistricted (Rodney Davis R, lost primary to Mary Miller)
TX-34 V Gonzalez D incumbent defeats R incumbent Mayra Flores (balanced by R gain in TX15)
Mike E
@WaterGirl: Inman and Ervin both lost, the repubs flipped the NC Supreme Court. They also took every single appeals court race, reestablished a supermajority in the NC senate and nearly did the same in the NC house. Sadly, all of the good mojo went to the US House as we are now facing a failed Medicaid expansion and a near certain override of some of Gov Cooper’s vetoes (he’s a lame duck going into 2024, and the rabidly right-wing Lt Gov is positioning himself to seize his mansion). We ain’t Florida, but the increments are trending in a bad way.
TaMara
I am hearing there are only 25K more votes to count in CO-3 and Boebert is still down 7K. I don’t think I’m going to sleep until they call it.
cain
@Mj_Oregon:
@Ohio Mom:
He apparently must have heard some kiss ass from white union men or something. Never bet against black women. Well I guess he will need to have a full retrospective on this.
Anoniminous
Schatz holds the Dem Senate seat in Hawaii.
Alison Rose
@Omnes Omnibus: Well, yeah, because we have a zillion people here. But there are twice as many registered Democrats than Republicans, and a majority of registered Independents vote blue when it’s between the two.
trollhattan
@TaMara: Fingers and silencers crossed.
SFAW
@Ohio Mom:
As we usedta say in NY: “That and a buck will get you on the subway.” [Which I assume was your point.]
WaterGirl
@BlueGuitarist: Super helpful, thank you!
So two House pickups, Landsman and Nickel.
Do you know anything about this one?
I think that’s the only House question left.
BeautifulPlumage
Peltola up in AK with 35% reported. She’s at 45% compared to Palin’s 28%
WaterGirl
@O. Felix Culpa: That’s Gabe. Everything crossed.
Jerzy Russian
@TaMara: That margin seems too large for her to overcome, assuming a semi-random distribution of the remaining precincts/areas left to count.
WaterGirl
@Anyway: Wait, who won in MN?
NotMax
@Anoniminous
And governorship called for Jewish doctor Josh Green.
TaMara
@Jerzy Russian: I’m hoping, because I don’t think even if those 26K were all RED, they don’t like her. She’s underperforming all of Trump numbers
WaterGirl
@BlueGuitarist:
Huge sigh of relief. We have waited for a DEM for so long!!!
BeautifulPlumage
@WaterGirl: Newhouse kept his red seat. So far WA has flipped one house seat red to blue and the other 9 districts are staying the same: 7 Dems & 2 Repugs
Jerzy Russian
@TaMara: The FYNYT had the district leaning towards Boebert. I don’t subscribe, so I could not see the details (it was a tab at the top of the page they had for the Georgia senate race).
WaterGirl
@BlueGuitarist: So that’s 2 house seats flipped to DEMS
BeautifulPlumage
@BeautifulPlumage: and the other guy ~ 25%
Eolirin
@BeautifulPlumage: If Palin comes in second, she probably holds the seat. Harder to say if Palin comes in third.
cain
So basically the media was completely wrong about everything. Good. Fuck them
WaterGirl
@Mike E: Wow, that is really depressing. I’m very sorry to hear that. Except for the part about the US House.
One of the Many Jens
@WaterGirl:
Newhouse is a Republican; one of the few who voted to impeach Trump.
phdesmond
Guardian:
In another victory Tuesday for abortion rights advocates, campaigners declared victory on proposal three – the ballot initiative looking to enshrine a constitutional right to the procedure in Michigan.
It follows similar, earlier victories for abortion rights measures in California and Vermont.
[and there was a ballot question in Ky., which won. and something in Mo.?]
WaterGirl
@TaMara: So Boebert would have to with 16k of 25k to be tied, let’s call that 2/3 of the remaining vote.
Please let her go down. Hard.
BeautifulPlumage
@Eolirin: do they use ranked choice for the general election too?
WaterGirl
@Anoniminous: Yay! Thanks for the report.
Omnes Omnibus
I am calling it a night. Hopefully I wake to more good news later today.
MobiusKlein
@SFAW: I’m old enough to remember when Florida was a swing state. Now it’s the mirror universe California in voting.
Juju
@Mike E: Yay! That makes me happy.
WaterGirl
@BeautifulPlumage: Okay, so I took Newhouse off the happy list because he’s an R.
This is what I have for the Washington House:
Washington – Adam Smith (hold)
Washington – Pramila Jayapal (hold)
Washington – Susan DelBene (hold)
Washington – Kilmer (hold)
Washington – Larson (hold)
Who are the other two DEMS and which seat flipped?
Aussie Sheila
@cain:
Yes. The ftfnyt needs to be publicly dragged over this result. In fact the Dems should take a leaf out of the repugs handbook and relentlessly complain about bias towards republicans in the msm.
All. The. Time.
WaterGirl
@One of the Many Jens: Ah, thank you for the reminder.
BeautifulPlumage
@WaterGirl: the other 2 haven’t been called yet, but Schrier & Strickland are ahead in their races. The flipped will be Perez, also not called yet.
Martin
Nothing new to report on the 15 remaining house races in CA. Mail-in ballots received before today are what we have. Same day are just now starting to get counted. Then they’ll return to drop-box and mail in once the same day are done.
With minimal votes reported here’s what we have:
So, with about 25%ish of the vote in, all being mail vote, one seat looks favorable for a R->D flip, and all of the R incumbent seats are reachable (+7 max) if same day trends D. 8 Dems have double digit leads to start. The expectation is that same day will favor R, but there’s also more mail/drop box to count. I’ll have a better sense of how much starting tomorrow.
I don’t know how much of a variable this might be, but it rained here today. It rained a LOT in a lot of places. Traditionally that has impacted same day vote.
Jerzy Russian
@WaterGirl: I can see the FYNYT page now. It was last updated 22 minutes ago, and it has “leaning towards Boebert” still.
SFAW
@MobiusKlein:
It went for Obama both times, and Hillary only lost by about one percent. But it’s trending away from sanity, even ignoring the DeathSantis win. Not sure why that is.
One of the Many Jens
Per Kos and the AP, it appears:
CT-02 Courtney (hold)
IN-01 Frank Mrvan (hold)
MI-03 Hillary Scholten (flip!)
NY-25 Joe Morelle (hold)
BeautifulPlumage
Bedtime here. Thanks, all, for the info & a pleasant place to watch for results.
JoyceH
Weird! Kevin McCarthy just gave the weirdest speech! It was obviously written in anticipation of the Red Wave. All about how Republicans are going to deliver on what the American people demanded, and then rattled off all the crime and inflation issues that did NOT work in the actual election.
RaflW
AP has called it FOR CARAVEO in CO-08!!!
I’m ecstatic!! One of our BJ races, and a real dead heat going into Nov 8. Phew!
sab
@Will: Ryan ran as himself in the primary, but in the general election you could hardly tell he was a Democrat. He took his base for granted, hoping to peel off more votes from Appalachia. It didn’t work.
My husband threw shoes at the tv every time one of his ads came on. My dad’s nurse’s aide told me that while she wants to vote all Democratic she just didn’t trust that man.
Nowadays you can’t ne one thing in the primary and something different in the general election. People notice.
cintibud
Thanks for all the updates! We are eating breakfast in Barcelona now, continuously updating to see the latest. (We voted weeks ago). Glad that at least we could sleep before my obsessive updating started
WaterGirl
@One of the Many Jens: I assume “flip” in the right direction? she asked hopefully.
WaterGirl
@RaflW: Oh my gosh, that’s awesome news! TaMara will be so happy.
One of the Many Jens
@WaterGirl: Indeed! :)
Princess
@One of the Many Jens: Good for Scholten. That’s Peter Meijer’s old seat, the one Dems got flak for, for advertising during the primary that his opponent (Scholten’s eventual opponent) was a Trumpy magat. Guess it paid off! I’m
WaterGirl
@One of the Many Jens: Wait, those are solid?
I thought that was speculation at this point. (My brain is tired.)
RaflW
@WaterGirl: On the other hand, Frish’s lead against Boebert is fading.
Still, a huge night for CO. A 5-3 House delegation would actually reflect the state’s Potus and Gov Democratic vote margins, and Lauren having to (maybe?!?) eek out a win? I’ll take it.
RaflW
@JoyceH: McCarthy’s not actually smart enough to manage a re-write of a speech in 3 or 4 hours? Seems about right.
One of the Many Jens
@WaterGirl:
Oof, right there with you. I am going to have to head home and crash. But yes, via Kos, the AP has called those races.
TaMara
@RaflW: Do you have a link because I’m not seeing it. And I really want to go to bed (I don’t think Boebert is going to be called before I fall over)
WaterGirl
@One of the Many Jens: Okay, I updated the list. thank you!
TaMara
@RaflW: All the sources updated at midnight show Frisch holding an almost 7k lead from the AP, which is about where it’s stayed with every update. Am I missing something?
Eolirin
Goddamn, it looks like Zeldin had significant coattails upstate and NY is at risk of losing 3-4 house seats. I think we’re going to lose at least 2.
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: Maybe we can pick up 2 in CA.
One of the Many Jens
Mj_Oregon may wake up happy, assuming ABC’s projection holds – they’re projecting that Val Hoyle will hold on to De Fazio’s seat in OR-04.
cintibud
Any ideas how the net pick up/loss in the house and senate are going? Is it clear that the Dems will lose the house?
guachi
@cintibud: Probably. And it’ll likely be down to NY’s failed gerrymander.
Eolirin
@WaterGirl: I’m just pissed because our maps got tossed when red states got away with similar levels of bullshit. We shouldn’t be losing seats in NY.
On the plus side, I think we might have a decent chance of winning a few of these back, if they sweep the remaining contests.
WaterGirl
@cintibud: For what it’s worth, I don’t think that’s clear at all.
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: I’m furious that OH can flip off the court and there are no consequences.
One of the Many Jens
Ok, last one before I *really* have to go – per Kos, AP has called PA-06 for Dem Chrissy Houlahan (hold).
WaterGirl
@One of the Many Jens: Thank you!
My last update before heading to bed.
Edith
MN Governor called for Walz. It looks like AP called MN-02 for Angie Craig -D. That’s a hold on a hotly contested seat.
sab
@WaterGirl: Ohioan here. Flipping off the courts is what we just voted for. See our state S Ct. elections. I am immensely glad I am past fertility.
Teddy Roosevelt (a nutcase) thought it was his sons’ patriotic duty to go to war and his daughters’ patriotic duty to die in childbirth.
WaterGirl
@sab: Before I went to bed I couldn’t find any results for MI and OH Supreme Court races.