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You are here: Home / Open Threads / Let’s Post “Called” Races & Race Updates In This Thread (Part 3)

Let’s Post “Called” Races & Race Updates In This Thread (Part 3)

by WaterGirl|  November 9, 20222:07 am| 111 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

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Part 3

Here’s a thread where we can post races that have been called for one candidate or the other.  Please don’t assume that we all know which state a certain candidate is in or even what particular office was won or lot.

I can’t be the only person that can’t track everyone in my head, right?  :-)

That will leave other threads safe for folks who don’t want to know until everything is over.

BLUE WINS TONIGHT

Democratic Governors 

California – Gavin Newsom
Colorado – Jared Polis
Connecticut – Ned Lamont
Illinois – J.B. Pritzker
Kansas – Laura Kelly
Maine – Janet Mills
Maryland – Wes Moore (flip)
Massachusetts – Maura Healey (flip)
Michigan – Gretchen Whitmer
Minnesota – Tim Walz (hol)
New Mexico – Michelle Lujan Grisham
New York – Schumer
Oregon – Tina Kotek
Pennsylvania – Josh Shapiro (hold)
Wisconsin – Tony Evers

Democratic Senators 

California – Alex Padilla (hold)
Colorado – Michael Bennet (hold)
Connecticut – Richard Blumenthal (hold)
Maryland – Chris Van Hollen (hold)
New Hampshire – Maggie Hassan (hold)
Oregon – Ron Wyden (hold)
Pennsylvania – John Fetterman (flip)
Washington – Patty Murray (hol)

Democratic House

Alabama – Terri Sewell (hold)
Colorado – Brittany Pettersen
Colorado – Yadira Caraveo
Connecticut – Courtney (hold)
Florida – Max Frost (hold)
Florida – Robert Wexler (hold)
Hawaii – Brian Schatz  (hold)
Illinois – Lauren Underwood (hold)
Illinois – Nikki Budzinski (pickup!)
Illinois – Eric Sorenson (hold)
Indiana – Frank Mrvan (hold)
Kansas – Sharice Davids (hold)
Maine – Chelsie Pingree (hold)
Michigan – Hillary Scholten (pickup!)
Minnesota – Angie Craig (hold)
Nevada – Susie Lee (hold)
Nevada – Steven Horsford (hold)
Nevada – Dina Titus (hold)
New Mexico – Teresa Fernández (hold)
New Mexico – Melanie Stansbury (hold)
New Mexico – Gabe Vasquez (pickup!)
New York – Joe Morelle (hold)
North Carolina – Wiley Nickel (pickup!)
North Carolina – Don Davis (kind of a pickup)
Ohio – Emilia Sykes (hold)
Ohio – Greg Landsman (pickup!)
Ohio – Marcy Kaptur (hold)
Pennsylvania – Summer Lee (hold)
Pennsylvania – Chrissy Houlahan (hold)
Pennsylvania – Chris Deluzio (hold)
Pennsylvania – Robert Matzie (hold)
Pennsylvania – Matt Cartwright (hold)
Pennsylvania – Madeleine Dean (hold)
Pennsylvania – Susan Wild (hold)
Rhode Island – Seth Magaziner (hold)
Texas – Vicente Gonzalez (pickup!)
Texas – Henry Cuellar (hold)
Virginia – Abigail Spanberger (hold)
Washington – Adam Smith (hold)
Washington – Pramila Jayapal (hold)
Washington – Susan DelBene (hold)
Washington – Kilmer (hold)
Washington – Larson (hold)
Washington – Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (pickup!)

Secretaries of State

Michigan – Jocelyn Benson

Attorneys General

Michigan!
Wisconsin – Josh Kaul

State Supreme Court

x

Statehouses

Michigan turned the statehouse blue
Pennsylvania House is now blue, not sure about the PA senate
Minnesota statehouse is now blue

Critical State Initiatives Passed

California – Reproductive rights passed
Kentucky – Reproductive rights passed (likely but not called yet)
Michigan – Reproductive rights passed
Montana – Reproductive rights passed (likely but not called yet)
Vermont – Reproductive rights passed
Michigan – Voting rights passed
Michigan – whatever the first one was
Maryland – legalization of marijuana
Missouri – legalization of marijuana

 


DISAPPOINTMENTS

Governors

Beto
Stacey Abrams
Charlie Crist
Steve Sisolak

Senate

Tim Ryan doesn’t defeat Vance
Cherie Beasley does not pick up a senate seat in NC
Rubio beat Val Demings

House

Elaine Luria
Mercedes Krause
Josh Riley
Tony Vargas

Secretaries of State

Georgia – Bee Nguyen

Attorneys General

Kansas – Kobach beat the excellent Democrat
Georgia – Jen Jordan defeated
Texas – Rochelle Garza

State Supreme Court

both seats in NC flipped to Republicans
Republicans won both OH supreme court seats
Republican won OH supreme court chief justice

 

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Reader Interactions

111Comments

  1. 1.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 2:10 am

    Reupping from below:

    Nothing new to report on the 15 remaining house races in CA. Mail-in ballots received before today are what we have. Same day are just now starting to get counted. Then they’ll return to drop-box and mail in once the same day are done.

    With minimal votes reported here’s what we have:

    • CA-03: D +2 (open seat)
    • CA-06: D +15 (D incumbent)
    • CA-09: D +23 (D incumbent)
    • CA-13: D +3 (open seat)
    • CA-21: D +13 (D incumbent)
    • CA-22: R +3 (R incumbent)
    • CA-23: R +6 (R incumbent)
    • CA-25: D +25 (D incumbent)
    • CA-26: D +15 (D incumbent)
    • CA-27: R +3 (R incumbent)
    • CA-40: R +7 (R incumbent)
    • CA-41: D +13 (R incumbent)
    • CA-45: R +2 (R incumbent)
    • CA-47: D +13 (D incumbent)
    • CA-49: D +13 (D incumbent)

    So, with about 25%ish of the vote in, all being mail vote, one seat looks favorable for a R->D flip, and all of the R incumbent seats are reachable (+7 max) if same day trends D. 8 Dems have double digit leads to start. The expectation is that same day will favor R, but there’s also more mail/drop box to count. I’ll have a better sense of how much starting tomorrow.

    I don’t know how much of a variable this might be, but it rained here today. It rained a LOT in a lot of places. Traditionally that has impacted same day vote.

  2. 2.

    WaterGirl

    November 9, 2022 at 2:11 am

    I’m headed for bed soon, so here’s a part 3 for anything that happens overnight, assuming anyone is staying up!

    Hoping to hear about Boebert and Rev. Warnock before I go to bed, but I’m starting to fade.

  3. 3.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 9, 2022 at 2:11 am

    I can’t find any recent results of Colorado Third results (recent = updated roughly 11:00 pm San Diego time).  The latest (from about 10:30) have Frisch up by about 7,000 votes with 82% of the votes in.  The “live forecast” has “lean Boebert” still.

  4. 4.

    Will

    November 9, 2022 at 2:14 am

    Jon Ralston saying it’s going to be close for Mastro. Rural landslides in rural areas so far and Republicans have slightly over performed in election day voting in Clark county.

  5. 5.

    WaterGirl

    November 9, 2022 at 2:16 am

    Yay for a win in Colorado – Yadira Caraveo!  My brain is tired but I think that’s a flip to D!

  6. 6.

    WaterGirl

    November 9, 2022 at 2:18 am

    @Will: Please please please let her win.

  7. 7.

    mrmoshpotato

    November 9, 2022 at 2:18 am

    From CNN:
    Exit polls: Voters who valued “honesty and integrity” favored Fetterman
    Hahahahahaha!

  8. 8.

    Origuy

    November 9, 2022 at 2:19 am

    FTNYT is still calling it a toss-up, but Catherine Cortez Masto is holding on against Adam Laxalt in the Nevada Senate race. With 56% of the vote in, she’s still at 51.6% to 45.8%. Clark and Washoe counties are going blue and there aren’t many people in the rest of the state.

  9. 9.

    Dangerman

    November 9, 2022 at 2:22 am

    Ok, I’ve been away for a few hours.

    It appears Senate is a lock to stay Blue (can we get McConnell on the phone and ask him what he thinks of TFG and the TFG ass kissers?).

    House? Don’t have a great feel. It’s gonna be close.

  10. 10.

    Another Scott

    November 9, 2022 at 2:24 am

    Democrat Susan Wild is clinging to a 5k lead in #PA07, but with a few more votes left to count in liberal Bethlehem (Allentown), I think she keeps it

    Dems closing in on a clean sweep in Pennsylvania pic.twitter.com/pa9Bpvfhqu

    — Brent Peabody 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@brent_peabody) November 9, 2022

    I sent postcards there!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  11. 11.

    WaterGirl

    November 9, 2022 at 2:27 am

    @Another Scott: Fingers crossed for Susan Wild.

    If she wins, I’m sure it’s your postcards that did it.

  12. 12.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 9, 2022 at 2:28 am

    @Origuy:  Here is hoping.  This is Like the race in Colorado where they have Boebert still “leaning”.  Either the FYNYT knows something we don’t, or they are just projecting their desires into the forecasts.

  13. 13.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 2:31 am

    @Jerzy Russian: They have the benefit of exit polls to tell them what the likely result is. But exit polls can also be wrong. My guess is their poll suggested a stronger Boebert win than the actual vote shows, and there’s no human paying close enough attention to tell the computer that the exit poll might be wrong.

  14. 14.

    gwangung

    November 9, 2022 at 2:31 am

    @Jerzy Russian: Wonder if the change in the Nevada Dem party machinery had any effect on the NV race?

  15. 15.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 2:35 am

    So, 42% of precincts in CA haven’t reported shit yet. Gonna be a spell.

  16. 16.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 9, 2022 at 2:35 am

    @Martin:

     

    They have the benefit of exit polls to tell them what the likely result is

    Good point, I had not thought of that. On the other hand, polling in general has been shit lately, and
    Why should exit polls be any different?

  17. 17.

    WaterGirl

    November 9, 2022 at 2:35 am

    @gwangung: What change in the Democratic party machinery.  I was under the impression that the Reid machine is still holding.  No?

    I assume the effect you are referring to is a negative effect?

  18. 18.

    Aussie Sheila

    November 9, 2022 at 2:35 am

    Biden is the best US President in my lifetime. And I am 70 yrs old.

    Who knew that long political experience and legislative chops counts in high office?

    I hope that Dems can  cement gen z voting habits, and that they cultivate alternative news sources for information to their voters. No point whinging about msm, although they should be publicly dragged for their republican bias.

    What a great result in a mid term election!

    Once again, congratulations to Dems and their gotv game.

    Truly excellent, even if there is a narrow republicans win in the House.

  19. 19.

    WaterGirl

    November 9, 2022 at 2:36 am

    @Jerzy Russian: I did read something earlier this week that exit polls have also been inaccurate. ??

  20. 20.

    Will

    November 9, 2022 at 2:39 am

    The NYT stuff doesn’t include exits. They are just crunching raw numbers versus expected outstanding votes. Basically it’s waiting for a heavy Republican area to report something out of line with those expectations.

  21. 21.

    guachi

    November 9, 2022 at 2:39 am

    The standout state for positive results tonight is easily Michigan. Big win for abortion rights. Big wins for the statewide races. Scholten picks up a D House seat.

    And, the real kicker, the Michigan Senate will be D for the first time since 1983.

  22. 22.

    TaMara

    November 9, 2022 at 2:40 am

    I’m toast. Boebert will have to lose or pull out a win without me. LOL

  23. 23.

    CaseyL

    November 9, 2022 at 2:41 am

    @WaterGirl: IIRC, there was a progressive uprising that took out most of the establishment Democrats there.​

  24. 24.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 2:41 am

    @WaterGirl: Yeah. They’re really no different from regular polls. You can get the electorate sample wrong. They’re good for calling races early where the exit poll shows a blowout and then the first vote drop reinforces that.

    But in a close race they’re pretty useless. NYT plugs them into their live forecast so the exit polls tend to bias the actual count, which is okay when 20% of votes in, but when 85% are in? Ehhh. The exit poll is doing harm at that point.

  25. 25.

    gwangung

    November 9, 2022 at 2:42 am

    @WaterGirl: A lot of the state machinery, as I understand it, has been taken over by folks from the Sanders camps. Was wondering if that had any effect on this election, or if that was too minor to be substantial.

  26. 26.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 2:42 am

    @Will: Did they stop doing that? They used to.

  27. 27.

    WaterGirl

    November 9, 2022 at 2:43 am

    @TaMara: Did you find anything on Yadira to confirm the AP call that someone mentioned?

  28. 28.

    WaterGirl

    November 9, 2022 at 2:43 am

    @guachi: No one has mentioned the voting rights initiative in MI.  How did that come out?

    I am having no success with the google.

    I am heading to bed before I drop.

  29. 29.

    RaflW

    November 9, 2022 at 2:43 am

    So, my quote tweet of the news site that said AP called Caraveo has now had the quoted tweet deleted. Dang. And, sorry! I believe it was one of the Denver TV stations that said it (but I’m really tired and bleary).

    As for Frisch narrowing, that was my read of the CO S.O.S. site. He was down to 50.7% at about 12:30am CO time.

    eta: AP Race Calls site indeed doesn’t have CO-08. Hopefully it will by morning.

    Good night!

  30. 30.

    Will

    November 9, 2022 at 2:44 am

    @Martin: My understanding from the latest Nate Cohn said, the exits aren’t used anymore.

  31. 31.

    Shalimar

    November 9, 2022 at 2:44 am

    Seems like 2018 again.  Really disappointed in Florida, Texas, and Georgia, but everything else seems to be going pretty well.  And still hoping Herschel fumbles to redeem Georgia a little.

  32. 32.

    WaterGirl

    November 9, 2022 at 2:46 am

    @RaflW: Bummer.  I guess I’ll find out in the morning.

    Off to bed for me.

  33. 33.

    Eolirin

    November 9, 2022 at 2:48 am

    @Shalimar: NY isn’t doing so great, might be a 3-4 R pickup in House races.

    NV continues to scare me.

  34. 34.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 2:51 am

    Ok, some same day starting to drop in CA:

    • CA-03: R +1 (open seat)
    • CA-06: D +15 (D incumbent)
    • CA-09: D +23 (D incumbent)
    • CA-13: D +3 (open seat)
    • CA-21: D +7 (D incumbent)
    • CA-22: R +4 (R incumbent)
    • CA-23: R +6 (R incumbent)
    • CA-25: D +23 (D incumbent)
    • CA-26: D +14 (D incumbent)
    • CA-27: R +3 (R incumbent)
    • CA-40: R +15 (R incumbent)
    • CA-41: D +13 (R incumbent)
    • CA-45: R +5 (R incumbent)
    • CA-47: D +12 (D incumbent)
    • CA-49: D +12 (D incumbent)

    All movement in favor of R. CA-40 got a big bunch of R votes – probably San Bernardino dropped. CA-03 flipped from slightly D ahead to slightly R ahead. But CNN didn’t call CA-40 despite that.

    What we know from previous elections is that pre-count mail ballots favor D, same day favor R, and then resuming counting mail ballots returns to favoring D. In 2018 Katie Porter was 4 points back after Election Day and won by 1 point. So there will be some swing back to D advantage at some point, but it’s not clear how much. How many Ds kept with mail voting and how many reverted to in-person, etc? Not sure. Tomorrow I’ll be able to see how many uncounted in each district and in which city. That should let me set some expectations for these races.

  35. 35.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 2:54 am

    @Will: Yeah, but some kind of poll is being used if they are forecasting against unreported precincts. Somehow they’re estimating how those precincts are going to break for Bobert. There’s some model at work there based off of a sample.

  36. 36.

    Will

    November 9, 2022 at 2:57 am

    @Martin: I think it’s based off previous performance in the counties. That’s why it started out by saying Boebert was expected to win by 17 but as it started crunching results on the historical data of the precinct. I could be wrong, but swore Nate went on a twitter thread about it before.

  37. 37.

    guachi

    November 9, 2022 at 3:02 am

    @WaterGirl: The last I saw the voting proposal was winning by enough that it will pass.

  38. 38.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 3:03 am

    And Huntington Beach must have just dropped because CA-47 (Porter) went from D+12 to D+1. That’s about what I expected.

  39. 39.

    TriassicSands

    November 9, 2022 at 3:06 am

    @Jerzy Russian:

    They know something you (and I) don’t, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t be wrong. News outlets have access to more detailed return results. Without knowing those details, percentages mean nothing.

    That’s why races often look very different at the end than when 50-75 or even more of the votes are counted. Individual localities can go overwhelmingly for one candidate or another, and with someone as creepy and divisive as Boebert there could be surprises.

    I desperately hope she loses, but if I had to bet, I’d (with great sadness) bet on her and hope I lost. In truth, I’d never bet on her, but I wouldn’t bet against her either. I wouldn’t do anything that could ever be interpreted as my not considering her a massive POS.

  40. 40.

    TriassicSands

    November 9, 2022 at 3:10 am

    @RaflW:

    As we all should know by now, anyone who comes from behind to win has rigged the election. Oh, wait, that’s only if it’s a Democrat.

  41. 41.

    guachi

    November 9, 2022 at 3:13 am

    With 70.4% reporting Monica Tranel (D) is leading corrupt Ryan Zinke (R) for the newly drawn western Congressional District in Montana. The lead is a slim 49.0-47.2 with the remaining 3.8% of the vote for a Libertarian candidate.

    Don’t know if that will hold but that’s a stunning result for Ds considering how red Montana is now.

  42. 42.

    Will

    November 9, 2022 at 3:14 am

    Nevada likely going Republican for gov.. Mastro going to be close, may be even losing by morning, but supposedly 100k Clark county mail ballots to vote, should lean Mastro.

  43. 43.

    sab

    November 9, 2022 at 3:15 am

    I am thrilled about Emilia Sykes, and I count that as more of a flip than a hold. The 13th district in Ohio was completely reconfigured from the safe gerrymandered seat that Tim Ryan had for 20 years. The Republicans reconfigured it so that they might take it, and Emilia Sykes clobbered them. They put all of blood red Medina County in her district and she still won!

  44. 44.

    TriassicSands

    November 9, 2022 at 3:18 am

    @guachi:

    That is one more indicator of how people may be surprised by the effects of ranked-choice voting if it ever spreads. Libertarians are generally much more likely to vote for Rs than Ds. In the race in Montana, that would likely ensure victory for Zinke. It also would mean that Donald Trump would be president today.

    We have two huge problems in the US. 1) Too many right wingers. 2) Too many people who should be voting for Democrats either vote for Rs or not at all. I wish those were our only two serious problems.

  45. 45.

    patrick II

    November 9, 2022 at 3:27 am

    My worry about Warnock is that, even though he is ahead, he is probably not going to go over 50.1% tonight and win. But the third guy running at nearly 3% is a libertarian and how will Warnock, Walker split those votes in a runoff?

  46. 46.

    Eolirin

    November 9, 2022 at 3:29 am

    @patrick II: Runoff turnout will not be as high, Warnock just needs to get more of his voters to turn out.

  47. 47.

    TriassicSands

    November 9, 2022 at 3:32 am

    @patrick II:

    Ordinarily, the Libertarian vote would make Walker the favorite in a runoff. But Walker is such a mindless piece of work that we can hope that Libertarians will split for someone with a functioning brain. Or just “stay home.”

  48. 48.

    Pamoya

    November 9, 2022 at 3:34 am

    Good news from Minnesota!!

    MN Governor – Tim Walz (DFL) wins

    MN Secretary of State – Steve Simon (DFL) wins

    (AG and state auditor also looking likely)

  49. 49.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 3:36 am

    @patrick II: If Dems win in NV and AZ, then Dems already have their majority. No upside for Republicans to turn out at that point. I think it’s safe to say that Dems are WAY more invested in Warnock as a non-flip control senator than the GOP are in Walker.

  50. 50.

    sab

    November 9, 2022 at 3:36 am

    Other than Emilia Sykes, I am beginning to agree with Kay about Ohio. My county is okay, but the rest of the state…

  51. 51.

    Will

    November 9, 2022 at 3:43 am

    Ralston seems to be saying Mastro has won Nevada unless there is something super weird with the Clark mail votes not counted.

  52. 52.

    Edith

    November 9, 2022 at 3:44 am

    Craig wins MN-02, so it stays D. This was a hotly contested House seat. It also looks like D’s will stay in control of state house, and might pick up the state Senate.

  53. 53.

    Kathleen

    November 9, 2022 at 3:48 am

    @sab: I’m so happy! I love Emelia Sykes. I’m thrilled to death that Greg Landsman beat Chabot down here in OH#1!

  54. 54.

    sab

    November 9, 2022 at 3:49 am

    How have the Big Lie Secretaries of State fared in these elections?

  55. 55.

    Kathleen

    November 9, 2022 at 3:50 am

    @sab: Hamilton County is blue and has been for awhile. We’ve flipped county seats and judges.

  56. 56.

    sab

    November 9, 2022 at 3:50 am

    @Kathleen: So am I. YAY!

  57. 57.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 3:57 am

    @sab: I think only Idaho has won.

  58. 58.

    sab

    November 9, 2022 at 4:05 am

    @Kathleen: We flipped all our judges in Summit County also. Apparently including party affiliation wasn’t good for Republicans here. Their pattern was to keep running people, and by the third time on the ballot voters recognized the name and voted for them. Didn’t work at all this time with party affiliation.

    State Board of Education locally was bad although an okay guy won. Jackson the Dem won. Miller the reasonable Republican (8 years on city board of education. Okay on LGBT rights (one of his daughters might be gay)) and very good on trans rights. Nutcase Trumpy freak came in second and Miller came in third. So much for being reasonable.

  59. 59.

    Martin

    November 9, 2022 at 4:07 am

    About to head to bed. Most of the counties I’m looking at in CA won’t report again until end of the day Wed, so not much may change for some time. Looking like CA races might be the deciding ones. We still have 15 undecided house races. I don’t know how they are being factored into the projections, but CNN has 10 of them indicated as ‘key races’.

    Another variable in all of this – with there being 435 house seats, if the GOP wind up with 219 (I think that’s the number a few forecasts are predicting now) then every vacancy turns into a potential fight for control. There’s currently 3 vacancies in the House. If the GOP were to lose just two reps for whatever reason and they flip to D, they lose their majority. So not only does the GOP caucus become nigh-unmanageable because those key votes become MTG and Gozar, and those two will know they can ask for *anything*, every open seat turns effectively into a national race that we all need to show up for.

  60. 60.

    mayim

    November 9, 2022 at 4:13 am

    It will likely take going to the next/second round in the ranked choice voting [instant runn-off] but it’s looking like Jared Golden will hold ME-02. He’s enough ahead that the split of the third candidate can go almost 2 to 1 for the other guy Poliquin [if Idone the arithmetic something  close to accurstely],and Golden will still have 50%+1 for round 2.

    Republican Poliquin has suddenly become visible the last month or do on Facebook, liking and occasionally commenting on posts from a local diner and an animal rescue. Guess that sudden presence didn’t convince enough people he actually cares. Wonding how quickly he’ll fade back into the woodwork…

    Chelsie Pingree won ME-01 handily, as expected.

  61. 61.

    Yutsano

    November 9, 2022 at 4:18 am

    I’m going to bed, but if these numbers hold, Warnock could win the runoff!

    Democrat Raphael Warnock holds slight advantage over Herschel Walker in key Senate race https://t.co/gquevweFqF— Daily Mail US (@DailyMail) November 9, 2022

  62. 62.

    Will

    November 9, 2022 at 4:20 am

    Ralston walking back his prediction on Mastro in Nevada… Republicans may have flipped with final Washoe election day numbers.

  63. 63.

    TriassicSands

    November 9, 2022 at 4:23 am

    @Martin:

    Most voters aren’t looking beyond the ends of their noses, but you make a good point, plus, my guess is that a lot of Georgia voters aren’t impressed with Walker — an idiot, a liar, an “abortionist,” etc. — so turnout could well favor Warnock. Of course, I’d rather see him creep over the 50% line and avoid a runoff altogether. It’s really sad that an intelligent, basically good person is in such a tight race with a colossal mess like Walker. The idea that being a football celebrity would give anyone any an advantage in a primary or an election is a good example of what our main problem is in the US — the quality of the electorate. Smart, decent people would never have nominated Walker. (Of course, smart, decent people wouldn’t be Republicans in 2022.)

  64. 64.

    sab

    November 9, 2022 at 4:24 am

    I still think Tim Ryan could have done more to point out what Biden and the House have done for us. By Ryan walking away it made all the Federal money look like DeWine got it instead of Ryan negotiating it and then voting for it. Democrats own goal that Ryan did.

  65. 65.

    Kathleen

    November 9, 2022 at 4:28 am

    @sab: Ironically the gerrymandered Rethug map in OH#1 enabled Landsman’s win. I don’t know results for county/state house yet. Time to check those out.

  66. 66.

    Kathleen

    November 9, 2022 at 4:29 am

    @sab: I agree.

  67. 67.

    sab

    November 9, 2022 at 4:33 am

    @sab: I am not Monday morning quarterbacking this election. I expressed my concerns about six weeks ago, and then I shut up to let him run his own election.

    But to be fair, I don’t know how a liberal Democrat can run statewide in Ohio. Sherrod Brown is a unicorn. He has been running as a liberal/progressive since I was in high school, and I am on Social Security now. He is what he is and we like him.

    Tim Ryan has that in his own district, but statewide he has been flipping madly on who he is and what he stands for. Not on fundamentals, but all around the edges. But the waffling is what voters see.

  68. 68.

    Will

    November 9, 2022 at 4:33 am

    Nevada might have unfortunately slipped through our fingers by a smidge

    Arizona.. Kelly likely going to win by a point or two… Lake however might win Gov

  69. 69.

    sab

    November 9, 2022 at 4:38 am

    @Kathleen: I am so glad you have Landsman. You deserve it after Chabot. And often weak candidates who win are good legislators. Different skill sets. Get along with others.

  70. 70.

    oatler

    November 9, 2022 at 4:38 am

    The ABC overnight news is reporting results entirely from the GOP angle with “victories” for MAGAs.

  71. 71.

    mrmoshpotato

    November 9, 2022 at 4:45 am

    @oatler: Canadian assholes shitting all over Fetterman. Assholes.

  72. 72.

    sab

    November 9, 2022 at 4:46 am

    I am stil quite amazed about J D Vance. Ohio hillbilly gets into Yale and becomes a rich San Francisco investment banker. Of course we want him to represent us because he wrote a whole book about how he hates us.

    ETA Six years from now he will be up for reelection. He can’t hurt us more than Rob Portman did. We might dump him.

  73. 73.

    Paul W.

    November 9, 2022 at 4:50 am

    New York democrats did really bad, in the context of so much strength in other states, our primaries and districts were thrown into chaos by the Republican courts and the establishment Dems like Zimmerman in 3 and Maloney over Barnes in 17 could cost us the house.

    Really winnable seats, but I plan to not let these dumb archaic state party monsters live this one down next cycle – should be relatively easy win backs.

  74. 74.

    AM in NC

    November 9, 2022 at 4:57 am

    North Carolina continues to break my heart.

  75. 75.

    Geminid

    November 9, 2022 at 5:06 am

    I see that Gabe Vasquez leads Yvette Harrell by 1015 votes in New Mexico’s 2nd CD. That’s with 95% of votes counted, ~193,000.

    Tbe 2nd covers the southern half of New Mexico. Xochitl Torres-Small flipped it in 2018, then Yvette Harrell won a rematch in 2020. Last year New Mexico’s Democrats drew it to be bluer, possibly just enough so.

  76. 76.

    Anyway

    November 9, 2022 at 5:26 am

    Disappointing results in NY house races.

  77. 77.

    Geminid

    November 9, 2022 at 5:27 am

    @sab: Unfortunately in Vance’s case, more and more people are voting “for the party not the person” these days. Or often, against the other party. Some of Vance’s supporters weren’t voting against Tim Ryan so much as voting against Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi.

    Republicans are on the wrong side of majority opinion on so many issues now that so-called “negative partisanship” is now probably the best thing they have going for them.

  78. 78.

    Baud

    November 9, 2022 at 5:34 am

    Very happy for MomSense and Maine for the Mills win.  She trounced LePage.

  79. 79.

    AxelFoley

    November 9, 2022 at 5:35 am

    I’m pissed to find out my Rep. Elaine Lauria lost her seat.

  80. 80.

    lowtechcyclist

    November 9, 2022 at 5:39 am

    @Geminid:

    Republicans are on the wrong side of majority opinion on so many issues now that so-called “negative partisanship” is now probably the best thing they have going for them.

    Pretty much. Demonize and get people to hate Dems and fear Dem control, and that seems to be working for them.

    Well, the Rethugs seem to have done better than the Dems overall, but certainly not a ‘wave’ by any means. So there’s that.

  81. 81.

    Kay

    November 9, 2022 at 5:42 am

    Daily Caller
    Oct 31
    Joe Rogan: “The Red Wave that’s coming is going to be like the elevator doors opening up in ‘The Shining.’”

    Based on Rogan’s brilliant “anger at litterboxes in pubic schools” analysis.

  82. 82.

    Baud

    November 9, 2022 at 5:45 am

    @AxelFoley:

    She was in a tough district.  But it’s still sad. She was a good rep.

  83. 83.

    Brachiator

    November 9, 2022 at 5:50 am

    A tidbit from the Los Angeles Times California election coverage.

    Propositions 26 and 27 were resoundingly rejected by voters in Tuesday’s election, despite a half-billion dollars in spending to convince Californians to legalizing sports gaming.

    Campaigns for the two competing measures flooded the airwaves with a constant barrage of attack ads, which some California political poll directors criticized for driving up opposition and confusing voters.

    Bullshit. Citizens are not for expansion of legalized gambling just to enrich casinos, corporations or even tribal entities. And the propositions had to admit that expanding gambling can be harmful by promising to use some of their profits to fund gambling addiction programs.

    This crap is one of the many reasons I hate pundit analysis of elections. Reporters mainly talk to other reporters, political strategists and self-styled experts who mainly spout cynical conventional wisdom.

    ETA. Because of heavy rains in places in California, some ballots were delivered by speedboat to election officials. The vote must go on.

  84. 84.

    Geminid

    November 9, 2022 at 6:03 am

    @AxelFoley: I was disppointed too. Elaine Luria and Jen Kiggans will almost certainly have a rematch in 2024, though and I think Luria will take the 2nd CD back.

  85. 85.

    Brachiator

    November 9, 2022 at 6:03 am

    @Jerzy Russian:

    Good point, I had not thought of that. On the other hand, polling in general has been shit lately, and
    Why should exit polls be any different?

    General polling measures intent. Likely voters.

    Exit polling us a sampling of reality, actual votes. If sampling is done right and if people don’t lie, exit polls can accurately reflect voting.

  86. 86.

    Baud

    November 9, 2022 at 6:10 am

    I’m surprised they called PA.  I was expecting a red mirage situation.

  87. 87.

    Brachiator

    November 9, 2022 at 6:12 am

    @Brachiator:

    Exit polling us a sampling of reality, actual votes. If sampling is done right and if people don’t lie, exit polls can accurately reflect voting.

    Meant to add that large numbers of mail ballots can impact accuracy of exit polls.

     

  88. 88.

    Qrop Non Sequitur

    November 9, 2022 at 6:13 am

    I love the day after the election when they put away the tired old drums they’ve been beating the whole year.  FTFNYT:

    “No Sign of Red Wave”

    “Inflation Wasn’t the Whole Story”

    You could knock me over with a feather. With wall to wall Republican fluffing all year, looks like we might yet be OK.

  89. 89.

    NeenerNeener

    November 9, 2022 at 6:14 am

    It looks like Hochul beat Zeldin to stay governor of NY. Schumer also won, as did Joe Morelle in Louise Slaughter’s old seat.  Whew!

  90. 90.

    Geminid

    November 9, 2022 at 6:14 am

    @Brachiator: Exit polling can reflect same day voting and that’s significant information. One can get a better idea of demographic leanings, issue salience, etc.

    Now that a larger portion of votes are early or mail in, exit polls are not as useful as they were just ten years ago. They still give good info, just from a narrower set that must be extrapolated from.

  91. 91.

    Baud

    November 9, 2022 at 6:19 am

    @Qrop Non Sequitur:

    Are those real headlines?

  92. 92.

    MomSense

    November 9, 2022 at 6:25 am

    @mayim:

    WTF are we going to do with Tiffany Bond.  She drives me insane with her attention seeking and perpetual spoiler routine.

  93. 93.

    Qrop Non Sequitur

    November 9, 2022 at 6:35 am

    @Baud: Shortened but yes.

    It was “No sign of red wave Republicans expected.” I wonder how that differs from the red wave that every media outlet was expecting.

    Then it was inflation not the whole story. Five takeaways from the election.

  94. 94.

    Geminid

    November 9, 2022 at 6:35 am

    @Qrop Non Sequitur: Given the 8-10-seat structural advantage Republicans gained through gerrymandering, and the reality of what some people call the “midterm effect,” House Democrats essentially fought Republicans to a draw, I think. Right now it looks like control of the House will come down to half a dozen seats that can still go either way.

    I will be disappointed if things break the Republicans’ way, and that result certainly could be trouble. Overall, though, I think Democrats made a strong and creditable effort and that’s what I wanted to see. I agree with what Ms. Bitecofer said this weekend:

        Gotta tell you, I’ve NEVER seen every part of the Left’s coalition, from Yellow Dogs to progressives, rowing in one direction [before] and it gives me so much hope for 2024.

  95. 95.

    Brachiator

    November 9, 2022 at 6:36 am

    I liked this CNN headline.

    Multiple vehement election deniers will lose their gubernatorial races, CNN projects.

    Some of the most aggressive deniers of the 2020 election results will lose their 2022 gubernatorial races, CNN projects.

    CNN, BBC and others are looking at election deniers and Trump endorsed candidates. This makes a lot of sense. It may give an indicator of Trump’s waning influence over Republicans.

    I also like the developing Trump-DeSantis slap fight over a potential presidential bid.

  96. 96.

    zhena gogolia

    November 9, 2022 at 6:38 am

    Shit that Vance outcome is so depressing. How anyone could look at those two men and choose Vance,  I have no idea.

    Yay for Fetterman, though.

  97. 97.

    zhena gogolia

    November 9, 2022 at 6:39 am

    @AxelFoley: That is tragic. She is so good.

  98. 98.

    Baud

    November 9, 2022 at 6:39 am

    @Qrop Non Sequitur:

    They are such garbage.

  99. 99.

    zhena gogolia

    November 9, 2022 at 6:44 am

    @Qrop Non Sequitur: OH, FUCK THEM

  100. 100.

    Geminid

    November 9, 2022 at 6:48 am

    @Qrop Non Sequitur: I think that inflation, and Republican exploitation of this issue, probably kept Democrats from expanding their majority in the House and may have cost us some close Senate races.

    Many  economists say inflation will abate in the new year, and I think they are right. Now, though there is the prospect of a recession induced by the Fed’s tardy, then excessive response to inflation. But that’s another story.

  101. 101.

    Qrop Non Sequitur

    November 9, 2022 at 6:49 am

    @zhena gogolia: The writers are getting lazy, next thing you know they’ll be water skiing greasers over sharks.

  102. 102.

    Baud

    November 9, 2022 at 7:00 am

    We won’t have the votes to overturn Dobbs, so by 2024, the public will have some experience living under oppression.

  103. 103.

    Kathleen

    November 9, 2022 at 7:17 am

    @sab: Hamilton County Dems started that practice a few years ago and we’ve flipped a lot of judges. It really helps.

  104. 104.

    Geminid

    November 9, 2022 at 7:21 am

    I’m not sure if Boebert’s race in the Colorado 3rd CD is decided yet. I still get a kick out of a retweet I found on Bitecofer’s timeline.

    It showed two pictures from that babbling bonehead’s watch party. The first showed a manic Boebert celebrating in front of her exuberant supporters. The second showed worried people clustered together, with drooping shoulders and long faces. A couple of them looked like they were biting their lips to keep from crying.

  105. 105.

    Kathleen

    November 9, 2022 at 7:26 am

    @sab: I agree with with you but did not say anything either. He made a conscious choice and it didn’t result in a victory. Who knows if result would have been different if he embraced party agenda in campaign. I think he ‘s basically  a decent guy with alot of potential. I would like to see him run for governor with different strategy.

  106. 106.

    Kathleen

    November 9, 2022 at 7:41 am

    @sab: Thank you! Landsman didn’t “embrace” Dems or Biden either. But he has been engaged with Black community for a long time which I’m sure helped him win.

  107. 107.

    Stacy

    November 9, 2022 at 8:22 am

    @zhena gogolia: It really is. I’m in Loudoun and it’s so sad to see one member of the trio we first elected in 2018, Wexton, Spanberger, Luria, lose. Ugh. She really is great and I hope she stays in politics.

  108. 108.

    Geminid

    November 9, 2022 at 8:58 am

    @Stacy: Luria will run against Kiggans in 2024, I think. I also believe she’ll win.

  109. 109.

    David Fud

    November 9, 2022 at 9:31 am

    Jen Jordan lost in GA Attorney General race

  110. 110.

    Another Scott

    November 9, 2022 at 3:14 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    NBCNews – Susan Wild won.

    Yay!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  111. 111.

    David 🌈☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    November 19, 2022 at 3:19 am

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