We watched a “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” marathon last night rather than follow the election returns, but looking at the results this morning, I’m happy to see that the “red wave” stopped at the Florida-Georgia line. It reminds me of 2018, when Dems outperformed expectations — except for in America’s Wang, which I must now concede is a more diverse, populous and beachy Mississippi.
So happy that Fetterman prevailed over the odious Oz. Sad that Tim Ryan lost to the completely phony, elitist shit-weasel JD Vance, but congrats to Ryan for running an excellent campaign and for sending the following message at its end:
Tim Ryan: "I have the privilege to concede this race to JD Vance, bc the way this country operates is that when you lose an election you concede. You respect the will of the people. We can't have a system where if you win it's a legitimate election & if you lose someone stole it" pic.twitter.com/7BTPJAsVu0
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 9, 2022
Also, what this guy said:
i want stories about how voters were turned off by republican blood and soil rhetoric and they were repulsed by stephen millers racist ads about a war on white people. i want stories about how handing the keys to the gop to tucker carlson and charlie kirk is killing the party
— Andrew Lawrence (@ndrew_lawrence) November 9, 2022
Not gonna happen, I’m thinking. Instead, the Beltway press will shift its beady eyes to the rising young fascist Ron DeSantis. Trump, who is constitutionally incapable of accepting the latest humiliation and slinking away, may decide to burn down the party rather than allow himself to be supplanted. Here’s hoping he lashes out with a sore loser’s raging fury soon and often. Meanwhile:
These before and after photos at @laurenboebert’s election party are giving me life pic.twitter.com/IqYaI9MxK9
— Keith Edwards (@keithedwards) November 9, 2022
Josh Marshall at TPM says sources on the ground tell him Boebert may pull ahead yet, but even if she does, she nearly got booted in a heavily wingnut district. Like Tangerine Baal, she’s incapable of self-reflection. So if we must endure her idiocy in the House for another two years, with, dog forbid, a thin GOP majority, let’s hope she and other Trumpy slab-heads will be enough of a drag on the party to help Dems flip it back.
Open thread.
Baud
The Morning Joe crowd was practically giddy about the result.
But they were also doing the thing other media are doing, recognizing that Dobbs had a big pact, after downplaying it leading up to the election.
We probably would have done even better if Mamchinema didn’t have hard one for the filibuster. But they have made themselves more valuable im 2024, so I guess it was a smart move.
Suzanne
I have three yard signs up right now: Fetterman, Shapiro, and Summer Lee. Three winners. That has never happened before for me.
It feels good.
Also great news: Chris Deluzio won in the district just down the street from mine, holding the seat held previously by Conor Lamb. As that district includes the pretty-red Beaver County and some wealthy suburbs of PGH…. it’s swingy. A great hold!
Baud
Really happy about Fetterman simply because he has a unique voice that may help break through the media noise better.
Baud
Reposting from the earlier thread.
I wonder how long the media will be able to suppress the stories.
MomSense
@Baud:
We need ranked choice voting. It would have saved good candidates from 3rd party spoilers. I think we should organize on this once we rest up from this election.
The reality is that Democrats have a massive geographic disadvantage and our potential voters are sadly not nearly as sophisticated about voting as Republicans. Republicans vote for power. They don’t need to be hounded to do it either. We’ve got to deal with the attitude about voting and we have to deal with disinformation and media bullshit.
Baud
@MomSense:
I agree. Say what you will about the GOP cult, it helps make them more effective than us at solidarity and political intelligence.
That said, I feel like we’ve gotten better since 2016. I hope we continue to make progress and won’t get distracted.
Baud
Symbolic, but nice to see in a deep red state.
Baud
@MomSense:
Congratulations on Mills. She trounced LePage. That was nice to see.
dmsilev
Good: managed to completely avoid any and all election news yesterday.
Bad: That was because I spent all day attending my uncle’s funeral, burial, and the first day of sitting shiva. Sigh. At least it’s over. Now, to start digging out from the backlog of Real Work(tm) that I simply couldn’t deal with over the last ten or so days.
Betty Cracker
I read somewhere that Michigan flipped the statehouse blue for the first time since 1983, which is huge. At least in some states, the party that sides with violent insurrectionists suffers electoral consequences.
hueyplong
Not whammying because I’m not attempting to call the races, but I’m wondering how many people have on their Bingo cards
Dems Hold House By Margin of Boebert’s Defeat,
AND
Dems Retain 50-50 in Senate Due to Trump’s Vanity Meddling.
Just because we are awake now doesn’t mean we can’t dream a little. The hard work of millions, including many here, has surely granted us that. And the above spins would just be more fun than Democrats Proved Once Again to Be the Only Adults in the Room.
Betty Cracker
@dmsilev: I’m sorry to hear about your uncle.
geg6
@Suzanne:
Every sign in my yard won! I can’t find for sure that Matzie won (but am sure he kept his seat, which was a redistricted seat). Deluzio, Shapiro and Fetterman did it for sure!
Baud
@dmsilev: My condolences.
Rileys Enabler
Trying not to cry- Texas stayed with the tiresome criminals. I am the lone blue dot in my sea of red family and it’s incredibly disheartening. They are the “nice white suburban” reds, happy to vote for the people who want to take my rights away. It’s going to be awhile before I can speak to my sister or mother.
Trying to look on the bright side. Fetterman. There. That’s bright.
Baud
Just think about how well the Dems could have done if Biden hadn’t pulled out of Afghanistan. /Media
Baud
@Rileys Enabler:
I’m sorry. The divided family situations are the worst.
Lady WereBear
@Rileys Enabler: Yes, it’s crushing, and I have no personal stake.
My condolences on the family situation.
dmsilev
@Betty Cracker: Thank you.
One amusing anecdote from yesterday: His late wife was Catholic and his foremost dying wish was that they be buried together. However, Jewish cemeteries are anal about ‘mixed’ burials as it were. Solution, described by my cousin as ‘slightly naughty’: before the service, there was a private viewing of his casket by family, and the funeral director said ‘you can put things in the casket then, wink wink nudge nudge’, so he put the urn with her ashes in the casket then. Bonus: they were both fervent Red Sox fans, and he wanted some team gear as part of his burial clothing. Her urn had the team ‘B’ on it…
He most definitely would have appreciated the shenanigans.
Lady WereBear
@dmsilev: I’m sorry about your uncle.
Betty Cracker
@Rileys Enabler: I hear you. I’m not looking forward to political conversations with Trump/DeSantis supporting family members at Thanksgiving.
Suzanne
@geg6: When I left Arizona, I said it was because of three things: heat, driving, and Republicans. Now I WFH in a solid blue district in a BLUE STATE (THAT’S RIGHT!) and admire the autumn leaves from my window.
Betty Cracker
@dmsilev: That’s awesome. May they rest in peace in a Fenway-themed afterlife.
Lady WereBear
@dmsilev: I’m glad love won :)
Professor Bigfoot
Gotta disagree on Ryan’s campaign.
He was so busy trying to lure white conservatives and “independents” that he ignored the real base of the party.
Fetterman had Biden and Obama campaign with him.
Ryan did not.
Ryan fucked up, a typical white man fuckup.
brantl
Michigan has mostly come through for me. I can’t believe we took back the legislatures.
OzarkHillbilly
@dmsilev: Nice. Sorry for your loss.
dmsilev
@Baud: , @Lady WereBear: Thank you. It was a hard month or so, especially for my cousin, my mom, and my uncle’s girlfriend, as they were the ones who spent the most time on the front lines as it were during his hospitalization, but not much better for the rest of us.
Amir Khalid
@dmsilev:
That was indeed a naughty thing to do, and I heartily approve of it.
Suzanne
@dmsilev: That’s fantastic. Losing someone is terrible, but I hope the shenanigans will give you cause to smile in the years ahead.
OzarkHillbilly
Politico had this little nugget:
Get ready for the MT Greene caucus too. If the GOP holds the house by a very narrow margin, the crazy is going to go into overdrive and it’s gonna be wild ride.
Suzanne
@Rileys Enabler: @Betty Cracker: I’m sorry about your family situations. Remember that personal boundaries are a great thing.
dmsilev
@Betty Cracker: She died early (aneurysm), about a year or so after the Red Sox won their first ‘modern’ if you will World Series title. At her wake, she was laid out wearing a Sox cap, and many many people said some variant of ‘at least she lived long enough to see them win’. So yeah, real fans.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone😊😊😊
Matt McIrvin
Things are still looking good in Massachusetts–the remaining source of suspense is whether the more provocatively liberal ballot questions will pass, but chances are high. The one statewide race that seemed like it might be an R pickup in a red wave (state auditor) went to the D candidate, DiZoglio despite an enthusiastically deceptive smear campaign.
twbrandt (formerly tom)
@brantl: We took back the legislature, won the majority of House seats, retained Gov, SoS, and AG, and passed all 3 proposals. Pretty good MI day, I think :)
Eolirin
@OzarkHillbilly: Discharge petitions are a thing in the House. If these lunatics create too many problems I’m willing to bet a handful of Rs will break with their party to move things.
OzarkHillbilly
We have read that early voting was dominated by DEMs. If true, the GOP might be in for some real disappointment.
Also, I wonder how much of these less than sterling GOP results are due to their repeated claims that the 2020 election was rigged? According to at least one GOP,
Why bother voting if the election is rigged?
hueyplong
@Professor Bigfoot:
There are plenty of white males to be annoyed with from coast to coast this morning, but Tim Ryan didn’t come close to making my own list.
Suzanne
@geg6: We’ve idly talked about moving into the next borough over some point, which would be into your district. The boundary is at the south edge of our neighborhood. So I’m watching it closely!
Qrop Non Sequitur
@OzarkHillbilly: Sounds like Massie is misreading the room. Manchin was able to command that influence because he was the median vote. You can’t do that from the extremes.
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
Baud
I’ll be interested to see who turned out, and also data on ticket splitters.
Soprano2
@Professor Bigfoot: I find myself wondering when some in our party will realize that the vote of a white man doesn’t count more than anyone else’s vote. It seems that the pursuit of the white working class vote costs us at least one important office every election.
Suzanne
@hueyplong: Agreed. Tim Ryan ran what I think is the best possible campaign for an Ohio Dem. I don’t think Ohio is really winnable any more.
OzarkHillbilly
@Eolirin: Yeah, they will have to on some things, but the internecine squabbles will get bloody.
Baud
No election violence, I take it. That’s good.
Kathleen
@MomSense: I agree 100%.
Scout211
I avoided all election news last night and woke up to review the results. What a relief that the big red wave did not happen.
Proposition 1 here in California was passed overwhelmingly. We now have reproductive rights written into our state constitution. And also Michigan! And also Vermont!
Soprano2
Here in Springfield, MO it looks like Dems picked up a state house seat. If current results hold, we’ll have 3 Democrats from Springfield in the state legislature. It’s been decades since that happened. Bonus – they’re all women!
OzarkHillbilly
@Qrop Non Sequitur: If the GOP has a one or 2 vote majority, there is no telling what damage the extremists can do, to the GOP if nothing else. I’m rooting for circular firing squads myself.
A whole lot of people were very anxious in the days before this election. If the GOP wins the house by such a narrow margin, I expect their anxiety to go thru the roof.
Lady WereBear
@Qrop Non Sequitur: shhhhh
Republican making a mistake. Don’t interrupt him.
Tony Jay
Not looking too bleak, is it? Nice of the MSM to suddenly notice that the removal of bodily autonomy might have annoyed a significant number of VeJay-Americans. Earn those paychecks you crazy camera-monkeys.
The chickens remain uncounted, but should the forces of sanity retain control of Congress after all this the cannibalistic feeding-frenzy on the American Right will almost make up for the complete shitshow masquerading as the Official Opposition over here.
Qrop Non Sequitur
@Lady WereBear: I know he’s an avid reader, especially of balloon juice. 🎈
Soprano2
The commentary about Evers and Barnes in WI makes me crazy. Why did Evers get more votes than Barnes, they ask. Of course, they can’t say the likely reason is that Barnes is black, and Johnson told everyone he’s basically a criminal because he’s black. I hate that they can’t say the truth.
OzarkHillbilly
@Soprano2: Whoo hoo! I might have to celebrate that. Pretty sure I have nothing to celebrate up here.
Except maybe the marijuana initiative, which I don’t even smoke but have loads of friends who do.
trnc
@dmsilev:
I’m sorry about your uncle.
Betty Cracker
@Suzanne: Agree, and sadly, the same is true of Florida. Biden and Obama campaigned here, and Dems got steamrolled anyway. It’s a red state. I hate it, but there it is. Sherrod Brown is a real unicorn these days, and I hope he gets reelected.
marklar
@Betty Cracker: “I’m not looking forward to political conversations with Trump/DeSantis supporting family members at Thanksgiving.”
Here’s a fun game…simply say “I sure hope people make the right selection between Trump and DeSantis!”, and watch them go at each other like parademons turning on Steppenwolf!”
Baud
@Scout211:
Same. I’m glad I chose to get a good night’s sleep.
Suzanne
@Soprano2: I find myself wondering when everyone will realize that it’s still identity politics when it’s white working class men. That’s an identity.
Geminid
@Professor Bigfoot: You seem awful certain. But I wonder if Ryan ran behind Emilia Sykes or Shontelle Brown. I might believe your assertion if he did.
Another discerning Ohio commenter said Ryan ran an excellent race, based on the challenge of winning a state Trump won by 8 points, twice. I don’t think that can be done without peeling off Independents and disaffected Republicans. Base motivation is neccesary for sure, but it’s not sufficient in Ohio.
NotMax
Realizing numbers are not yet final, anyone seen anything comparing victory margin of those members of the January 6 committee who were re-elected versus their margin two years ago?
Baud
@Suzanne:
Two minutes after never.
hueyplong
@marklar: I’m assuming that we actually want Trump to gut DeSantis like a trout and then go to prison for his many and obvious crimes, reducing the 2024 field to more run of the mill guttersnipes.
Suzanne
@Betty Cracker: Mr. Suzanne and I were talking about this last night….how whomever ran against Marjorie Taylor Greene raised, like, eighteen skrillion dollars for their campaign. And still lost, of course, because that district sucks. It is full of shitty people and it is a waste of resources to chase it. The better thing to do is make it utterly irrelevant by winning elsewhere.
trnc
@OzarkHillbilly:
At least it’s nice to see some signs that at least a few will accept reality, based on this and some republican concession to dems in races that have been called.
Have any republicans who have lost declared their race stolen yet?
Anne Laurie
But Massie believes he’s a ‘centrist’, because he thinks the world revolves around Massie!
sdhays
@Tony Jay: The “cannibalistic feeding frenzy” isn’t in the top 10 reasons I want to see the Democrats retain control of the House and Senate, but I oh so want to see it.
OzarkHillbilly
@trnc: I don’t think so, but time will tell.
OzarkHillbilly
@Anne Laurie: Touche’
sdhays
@Suzanne: That’s one of the things that’s terrifying them – the prospect of not being the default as demographic changes continue in this country.
Scout211
Clever timing for that other billionaire with a social media empire in decline. With elections dominating the news, Meta announced that they are laying off 11,000 employees and Zuckerberg is “sorry.”
Soprano2
@OzarkHillbilly: My rep barely won her first race two years ago; this time she’s leading by 12 points. Incumbency helps. It seems that Springfield is slowly getting more liberal.
Soprano2
@Suzanne: Yep.
dmsilev
@Scout211: Seppuku is an acceptable way of saying sorry.
Immanentize
@Professor Bigfoot: I agree. Ryan really ignored the black voters of Ohio who, as Kay says, have real political power. It is reported he did not walk with Joyce Beaty or Shontel Brown in his pursuit of WWC men who drink, as he said, “Dago red wine.” No, I will never forget that. AND, Fox News was a huge mistake. And I have relatives in Cinci who voted for him, but didn’t work for him based on the Pelosi adventure. Also, he could have embraced all that Biden did for Ohio, but rejected it as strategy.
I do not think the answer is to run progressive barn burners in Ohio (definitely NOT the answer), but between Republican Lite and Republican, voters always go with more calories. See: Crist, Charles.
Kathleen
Interesting info from Hamilton County BOE. Hamilton County traditionally votes majority Dem at state and national level. DeWine beat Whaley here 51.51% to. 48.30%. For AG, Auditor, SOS and Treasurer Dems won handily. Same with Supreme Court Judges. Ryan beat Vance here 57.36 to 42.58. Landsman beat Chabot 62.20 to 37.80. I do not understand the majority of votes for Dewine given down ticket numbers.
cintibud
@Geminid: I have to think that there weren’t a significant number of progressives who thought “there in no difference between Ryan and Vance, I’ll just stay home”. Certainly not enough to make up the margin of victory when subtracting the folks who were wavering because “taxing Tim Ryan openly supports Pelosi’s radical agenda!” Ohio is not a purple state unfortunately, it is increasingly red. Ryan didn’t win but it looks like he had enough coattails to drag some house candidates over the line. I think Ohio is now plus 1 for Dems
Tony Jay
@sdhays:
But it is a good shout for 11?
There’s nothing wrong with a little shady-freud with your breakfast. Keeps you regular and freshens up the old hand-eye co-ordination for popcorn night.
Geminid
In early morning reports, Gabe Vasquz was leading Republican Rep Yvette Harrell by 1015 votes in New Mexico’s 2nd CD. That was with 95% of the vote counted, ~193,000. I guess counting will resume soon.
The 2nd CD covers the southern half of New Mexico, and it changed hands in each of the last two elections. Last year New Mexico Democrats shifted the boundaries to make it bluer and that may have worked.
Gabe Vasquz was born in El Paso, was raised across the border in Jaurez, and then moved back to El Paso as a teenager. Vasques graduated from Notre Dame University in 2011, and then worked for Senator Martin Heinrich before serving as a Las Cruces City Council member.
trnc
@hueyplong:
I get your drift, but I’ve become much more of a “be careful what you wish for” type of guy. I also suspect that DT lost some sway after yesterday’s results, but that still remains to be seen. In any event, the real problem is that the particular person who carries the trumpism ball doesn’t really matter anymore.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@dmsilev: I know it’s a sad occasion but the additions to your uncle’s casket made me smile.
JPL
@OzarkHillbilly: Greene wants everyone to work together and can’t understand why they haven’t in the past.
Tony Jay
So, now that he’s got his first Senator in place, how many more billions will Thiel have to spend before he’s got enough to rename the GOP as The Blood Drinking Billionaire Boy’s Club Party?
JPL
hmm Since folks are writing off trump for president, maybe trump will consider becoming speaker of the house.
Qrop Non Sequitur
@Tony Jay: Thats been their unofficial title for decades.
Suzanne
@sdhays: It’s kind of like how many men think books like “The Red Badge of Courage” are full of “universal themes” that appeal to everyone, but books like “Pride and Prejudice” appeal only to women.
Ughhhhh. So many white dudes have such main character energy.
trnc
@cintibud:
I am somewhat perplexed at the idea that a losing candidate can have coattails, but I have seen that written in several places now. I would probably be lucky to be considered even a dime store political analyst, but it seems to me more likely that the House candidates won on their own. I’m not in Ohio, so I would need to look at how they ran their campaigns to know whether they completely owned being democrats or instead walked a tightrope, which I understand is what Ryan did. From what I saw, he was somewhat more on board with being a democrat as a senate candidate than he had been in the house, so maybe his history turned off some dem voters. In fact, I would be curious to know if many dem voters left the senate choice blank.
Betsy
@Betty Cracker: For every crazy right-wing uncle, there’s a cool liberal aunt. And, I trust, you are that aunt. For someone :)
ETA: My late uncle, who was dear, kind, very left-wing, very woke, pro-woman, and a true defender of the downtrodden, would object sweetly whenever I mocked RWNJ thanksgiving uncles, and I feel like I should mention this. How I miss him.
Immanentize
Update: Buried my Mom a weekend ago. It was all around a nice funeral, beautiful weather for the graveside ceremony. No need for naughtiness 😉 as she was laid to rest as they say right next to my Dad in the “Slovak Half of the Riverside Cemetery.” Which is it’s actual name or at least what everyone knows it as. Catholic immigrants on this side with a smattering of Jews. Protestants on the other side. My parents’ was also a mixed marriage — Catholic and Methodist. The Catholic Priest who was a relative of my Dad would not marry them — not so much because my Mom was a Unitarian Methodist, but because she wasn’t a Hunky.
I had to give the eulogy. Only choked up once when I held up my Mom’s baptism candle when she was re-baptized as a Catholic just before her brain tumor operation in — 1964!
Also, after eliminating all medical reasons it might have been me that caused the troubles, I have decided to pursue a litigation strategy regarding my near death experience just before my aborted “simple” hernia repair last March. One doctor I went to — a cardiologist — is pretty sure they just gave me the wrong drug pre-operation. Instead of Versed (midazolam) they shot me up with ???. And they won’t tell me. Maybe a lawyer can discover the truth?
Geminid
@Immanentize: Since you are using what another commenter said about the strength of Onio’s Black voters to support your anti-Ryan argument, I will point out that this same comnenter said Ryan ran a very good campaign. I believe “perfect” was the word used.
And like I’ve said, unless Ryan ran much behind Emilia Sykes, Shontelle Brown or Joyce Beatty, I don’t buy this criticism..
trnc
@Tony Jay:
I’m happy to do it for free, but wouldn’t turn down the check for it.
Nelle
I have been appalled and angry at the money wasted by all politicians in this election. I’m irritated at all the beseeching emails I got, even from candidates whom I supported. It is obscene that over $11 million was spent in the local Congressional race (still undecided at this point – the R is ahead by 2,000 votes and it would be a flipped seat).
In this household, my husband does the political donations and I do the family and charitable ones (a niece going through a viscious divorce from an abuser, determined that she have nothing; a disabled brother-in-law who needs more home health care than is covered, on and on).
That $11 million could make a huge difference in housing and societal needs in this district (yes, I know it wouldn’t be available to societal needs). Instead, what does it do? It fuels media and consultants and what else? And that’s just one district.
I admire the generosity here. Over and over, you guys step up and contribute to what you believe in. But you will never match the casual buying out that a Thiel or a Koch or even a Soros does.
I want to praise the direction of giving to getting out the votes, to Four Directions in particular. I think that was very smart.
What I remember, from the late sixties, though, is the way that Mr. Worley drilled into us our responsibilities as a citizen, the structure of the government, the need to be an educated voter in our required Civics class in Wichita, Kansas. At ages 16 and 17, we knew then that we would be waiting until we were 21 to vote, though at 18, Randy and Terry and Richard could be drafted to go to Vietnam. It was life or death to pay attention to what the politicians were doing. And then it was a habit to pay attention by the time we were 21.
So, I think the next campaign is with school boards, local and state, to require Civics classes again. And hope they all have dedicated teachers who energize and excite their students about caring and participating in government.
Oh, and expand the Supreme Court too. There are 13 circuit courts. There need to be 13 on the Supreme court. Money is free speech is ridiculous. Life terms are ridiculous.
BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️
The excellent Terri Sewell was re-elected to AL-7. She remains the lone Dem in our seven-member House delegation. Thus endeth the good news for AL Dems.
Immanentize
@dmsilev: I am sorry for the pain, friend, but it sounds like joy won out among the living. A good uncle is a thing to treasure. Even if he was a Red Sox fan 🙂.
MomSense
@Baud:
It was so great! And watch this space because the whole family is pissed about those ads and they are not going to let it go – for the sake of future candidates.
PST
@dmsilev:
Not all Jewish cemeteries. I have a spot reserved, with permission, in my wife’s family’s row. I’ll have the only urn. I notice that all the markers have a Hebrew name below the English. In my imagination, my stone will feature a Hebrew inscription reading, “Who’s the goy?”
Low Key Swagger
@Immanentize: I don’t know from Ohio politics. But let’s say you are right. Black women (or men, for that matter) aren’t stupid, and would know how strategically important that race was. Did they split their ticket? Not check a box for that race? I can see where Ryan did not excite our base…but I’m at a loss as to how he could win without convincing rural white voters and that appears to be what he did, just not in large enough numbers. Not saying you and Kay are wrong, just don’t understand this.
JPL
@Nelle: I second everything that you said.
Immanentize
@Geminid: Well, he lost yet Sherrod Brown who does not pander to white voters or go on Fox is still Senator in Ohio. Was Vance really a great candidate? He had tons of money, sure, but so did Ryan. Go figure. We can look at vote totals later.
But when Martha Coakley lost to Charley Baker for Governor of Mass it wasn’t because loyal Dems didn’t vote for her, it was because small local machine Dems didn’t work for her. I know because I was with Capuano.
OzarkHillbilly
@Immanentize: I’m happy it went well for you.
Immanentize
@MomSense: I like a festering grievance! Count me in!
Kathleen
twbrandt (formerly tom)
@Immanentize: So sorry to hear about your mom. And I hope your medical issues are resolved without too much hassle!
Kathleen
@Immanentize: My condolences.
Matt McIrvin
@Tony Jay: The Republicans could well still take both houses of Congress. But if they do, it will be a hair-thin majority that will have trouble doing anything but obstruct the way their minority already does. The next big fight if they win the House is the showdown with Biden over the debt limit, in which the Republicans have openly stated a desire to extort concessions under threat of destroying the US economy with a default. But the weaker a position they’re in, the less of a mandate they can claim, the harder that is to swing. It’s a different position than Obama was in in 2011 after his party was crushed in a historic red wave.
Geminid
@Low Key Swagger: Kay said that Ryan ran a good race. The commenter is using her appraisal of the strength of Black voters in Ohio to prove his own questionable point.
Immanentize
@Low Key Swagger:
This matters. Candidates that are reelected rarely need to “excite the base,” they need to recreate their coalition. Ryan needed to excite the base. Now he may have lost anyway, but he left that part of his effort off the table — from the beginning, for his strategic reasons. Fetterman seemed to excite the base, even when originally black voters were working hard against him. He took the margins path that Obama took to win — shave vote wins off in every red county.
The question is not whether Ryan did as well as the Dems who won in those districts, but did he do better in every district which Republicans won last time around.
Amir Khalid
@Scout211:
So Zuckerberg displays his contrition by putting out of work 11,000 people who had nothing to do with the vanity that led to his Metaverse folly?
Sounds reasonable. //
Immanentize
@Kathleen: I am so happy Sykes won.
Geminid
@Immanentize: “Republican lite” is a slur that I often see used by liberals privileged enough to live in blue states. Someone can be a liberal living in a blue state and still uappreciate what it takes to fight elections in purple states and districts, but I don’t think you do, and your callling moderate Democrats “Republican lite” shows it.
EarthWindFire
@Professor Bigfoot: The dumbest take I heard this morning was Joe Scarborough saying Tim Ryan has a great future in politics. Really, Joe? Where exactly? Maybe he can go the McMullin independent route and get his above it all ass kicked that way?
Nelle
On a grateful note, the full moon just set here in Iowa. A beauty on a very mild November morning. Find something beautiful in your world – a bird song, some red leaves, the way the sun angles down on the waking world. Restore balance by what you notice.
Immanentize
@Geminid: It is not a slur. I do live in a blue state but lived more than half my voting life in Texas and Florida. When I say Republican Lite, I generally mean those Democrats who run against the Democrats to the right of the centrist part of the party. Everyone needs to run the campaign they need to win, but rarely do Dems who complain about Democrats win in Republican leaning states. Or do they usually win and I am just missing it? Even Manchin is a steadfast Democrat. Sinema not so much, so we shall see about her on her next election day.
Fetterman won running as an unapologetic Dem in a very analogous match up. No?
PaulWartenberg
Florida resident here, looking for a reference librarian job in a Blue State now that it’s been proven that Florida is lost to Democrats for the forseeable future.
Jesus. I know Charlie Crist has his problems with voter turnout, but DEMINGS getting blown out is a shocker. She was an up-and-comer, she said all the right things, she was going against a weak noodle in Rubio, and she STILL got blown out?!
There is a likelihood that the extreme gerrymanding that DeSantis forced on the congressional seats might have reduced voter interest. My district had NO Democratic challenger, and even with the need to vote for Governor and Senator it could have affected Democratic and left-leaning indy voters to just not show. THIS IS WHY YOU FIGHT FOR EVERY SEAT, DAMMIT.
/cries
We have had 20-plus years of solid Republican misrule in Florida, and my fellow residents voted for at least 4 more years of it. Madness. We are truly mad in Florida. It will take a disaster of epic proportions for people to give up on the criminal GOP here.
Gods help us.
Kathleen
@Immanentize: I as well. And since I live in OH#1 I’m over the moon regarding Greg Landsman’s flip! He ran excellent yet interesting campaign in that he didn’t push the Democratic Party “brand” but focused on 2 or 3 of Chabot’s failings. He had already established himself in the Black community received several endorsements.
Nicole
@dmsilev: I’m so sorry for your loss; may his memory always be a blessing. And that anecdote is so sweet. Good on the funeral director. :)
sab
@hueyplong: He made mine, and I live in his district.
Geminid
@Immanentize: No, not very analogous at all. Fetterman ran in a state that Joe Biden carried in 2020. Tim Ryan ran in a state that Biden lost by 8 points.
But I’m sure you are happy that Abigail Spanberger won reelection in the Virginia 7th CD!
sab
@Suzanne: Sherrod Brown possibly begs to differ.
Immanentize
@Kathleen: That to me was a surprise! A present even. As Charlie Pierce wrote:
Pinch me!!
Kathleen
@dmsilev: My deepest condolences.
tobie
@Immanentize: I’m glad Fetterman won but you would be hard-pressed to say he ran a good campaign. He didn’t run any campaign till October. Josh Shapiro ran a great campaign and, if anyone had coattails, it’s him.
Kathleen
@Immanentize: I know!
suzanne
@sab: Sherrod Brown is a unicorn, and aided significantly by politically “coming of age” is a different time. Those circumstances are different than what Ryan or any other Dem was facing.
Matt McIrvin
@JPL: There’s been a wingnut idea kicking around for ages that the House appoints Trump as Speaker of the House (there’s no rule that says the Speaker has to be a member of the House, kind of like there is no rule that a mule can’t be a placekicker) and then Biden and Harris get… simultaneously eliminated… somehow, making Trump Acting President.
I’ve been having all kinds of political-thriller worries about this. I think that making the Speaker third in line of succession is a terrible, terrible idea because, to be blunt, there should never be a significant chance of a shift in party control because people died.
In a really extreme red-wave situation, I could see the House trying this and then using the debt default threat to force a simultaneous resignation–every election denier’s fantasy of the rightful President Trump restored!! It wouldn’t work but they might actually pull the trigger when it failed. But under the circumstances I think they know they couldn’t get away with it.
Burnspbesq
@Rileys Enabler:
I’m in favor of Texas secession, as long as I can get out before they close the border.
Geminid
@PaulWartenberg: I attribute some of the result in Florida to the money Republicans spent. DeSantis alone started the campaign with well over $100 million in the bank. Florida is a big state with a lot of different population center as well as new residents. TV and radio advertising can have a lot of effect there.
cintibud
@sab:
II am now seriously worried about Brown in 2024. It’s clear that folks are now voting for the party, not the person. If Brown wins again he will be truly a unicorn
Immanentize
@suzanne: I like to think hopeful thoughts about Ohio because I have many relatives and friends there. And it is the aging grumpy folks who seem to be holding the whip hand right now. Like Planck said about science I will say about Ohio democrats, they will “progress one funeral at a time.”
MomSense
@dmsilev:
LOVE the shenanigans and the Red Sox gear is the chef’s kiss!
Matt McIrvin
@Geminid: My sister lives in Spanberger’s district, so I tend to watch it, and Spanberger’s win was my personal bellwether result that this was not a red-wave night. I’m sad about Luria but I think the chances there were not great to begin with.
Immanentize
@cintibud: The good thing about Brown in 2024 is that it will be a Presidential election and therefore a bigger turnout. And Roe will definitely still be on the ballot.
Immanentize
@Matt McIrvin: Hassan wa my bell weather. If she lost to Bolduc it was going to be a VERY bad night for team blue. But she won early. Also agree with you about Luria.
sab
@Geminid: I live in Ryan ‘s district and I like him a lot. My anecdotal evidence for his problem is that my dad’s nurse’s aide, who lives in my city but not his district, told me she does not trust that man. In Ohio we could not tell from his ads or his election behavior that he is a Democrat. She voted for Emilia Sykes. Without Sykes running she might not have bothered to vote. He utterly ignored the black vote and the women’s vote to go for white men. It was glaringly obvious in his campaign
ETA He has been my congressman for 20 years so I knew who he was and what his positions are. That is not true for the rest of Ohio. And he didn’t tell them. Sherrod Brown wins by being honest. Ryan tried to win by being sneaky. Centrist Democrats do not win in Ohio. Sometimes progressives do.
Suzanne
@tobie: Fetterman ran a “very online” campaign all summer as he recovered. It proved to be a good strategy, because they went all in on snarky “Oz is from New Jersey” stuff. He didn’t go dark.
BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️
@Immanentize: Sorry about your mom, Imm.
Bokonon
@Amir Khalid:
That fakey apology is what separates the tech companies from the sort of Ayn Randian “WE ARE FIRING ALL THE ECONOMIC LOSERS!” statements you get when other companies in the American economy do layoffs. You pretend to care for a nanosecond. You pretend to own your mistakes.
Suzanne
@Immanentize: I believe that party ID is an insurmountable barrier for a lot of people, much more so now than in the past. I have shared that I voted for John McCain for Senator once (the only time I have ever voted for a Republican), because the Arizona Democratic Party ran this absolute non-entity of a sacrificial candidate, who just had absolutely nothing to offer. He didn’t campaign at all, lost by like 60 points, and, afterward, basically disappeared and never did anything in Arizona again. But I would never do that today. Today, I would just not vote.
I think that makes some races pretty much unwinnable, no matter how good the candidate is.
sab
@Geminid: I live in a red state and I think Ryan ran as Republican lite and it pissed me off and it pissed my husband off and it pissed my stepkids off. He took us for granted. We live in his ditrict so we turned out for him. In the rest of the state people like us wouldn’t have known anything about him. Why would they even bother to vote
ETA Couldn’t he have given Biden a little public acknowledgement of the infrastructure bill so that DeWine didn’t get all the credit?
Brachiator
@dmsilev:
Wait a minute. Sports memorabilia inclusion must be the worst kind of heresy.
My condolences and thank you for the amusing, and heartwarming story.
Matt McIrvin
@Suzanne: I think it’s interesting, though, that unlike Florida, Arizona is gently trending blue. For a long time I thought of them as mirroring one another.
(Sounds like barring some kind of late reversal, Kari Lake is going to pull out all the Trumpian stops and insist she wuz robbed.)
Bupalos
@Suzanne: I don’t get why people have a need to do this “time to give up on X” thing. Ohio has been subject to bad economic trends that look to potentially be slowly reversing. There are green shoots from last night.
I didn’t love the Ryan campaign choices despite working hard for it. If we had the same kind of solidarity as R’s and didn’t leak black women when we run a white man and vice versa, we’d win more. We need to work for that party of better solidarity.
Immanentize
@Suzanne: in Texas, I watched the State become unwinnable for Dems when I was there. I understand and agree, but those things can change as they did back in the 90s but in the other direction? Roe is going to help and so are, very sadly, some other crap the Supreme Court is going to throw at us this year and next.
EarthWindFire
@Matt McIrvin: Based on my trips to BIL’s golf course retirement condo, my guess is that FL is getting the deep south, midwestern, and Long Island red retirees and WFH crowd as its new population. Maybe the in-migration to AZ is different?
Matt McIrvin
@EarthWindFire: I have heard people say that Arizona is no longer the retirement destination it used to be (whereas Florida very much is), but I don’t have numbers.
From the 10,000-foot view, the bluening of the far West is the biggest political trend of the past 30 years or so. Last night was something of a setback in Nevada, which is an unusual state, but I don’t see it stopping.
tobie
@Suzanne: Don’t agree. And I’m in the PA media market, 15 miles to the south. I saw Fetterman’s tweets. They were funny for a week and then the repetition became god-awful. That was his campaign till October. Meanwhile Josh Shapiro ran all over the state and carried the Dem party to victory. He’s the hero of the midterms in PA in my opinion.
Soprano2
@tobie: To be fair, Fetterman probably would have run a different campaign without the stroke.
GibberJack
@sab:
I’m geographically not near Ohio and I wasn’t really following Ryan’s campaign other than hearing a few news bits here and there. In other words I probably paid attention like most “normies”. And this was my impression too, that he wasn’t really a Dem. I remember thinking, crap, sounds like he wants to be another Sinema.
Rileys Enabler
@Burnspbesq: already considering likely landing spots. I do ok here but am tired of my labors going to support a pack of malicious criminals. Maybe the youngs can turn it purple in a few decades, but I don’t want to age here.
Rileys Enabler
@Immanentize: condolences, Imm. I’m sorry for your loss.
tobie
@Soprano2: I don’t deny that. I just think we should be giving credit where credit is due. Josh Shapiro won by 13 points. Immediately following the May primaries, Fetterman had an 18-20 point lead and Shapiro was struggling with 5. He turned that around because he worked hard and found a winning message.
Paul in KY
@dmsilev: That made me tear up a bit. RIP to 2 loving souls. Good on cousin & funeral director too!
Paul in KY
@Professor Bigfoot: Sorta tried the ole fake-Republican gambit. Pres Truman had an opinion bout that.
Paul in KY
@cintibud: Any ‘progressive’ in OH that thought that is just a useful idiot for the other side.
Paul in KY
@Immanentize: My condolences to you and your family on the death of your mother.
Geminid
@GibberJack: I read in an article about Ryan’s campaign that someone hearing his ads wondered if the Republican primary had not yet happened. So I get why some Democrats were upset.
I would be too, if Ryan was compromising on Democratic policies and principles. But I don’t think he was, but rather was tailoring his messaging to the Independent and Republicans who he needed to win over.
The Democratic incumbent in my district faced a problem similar to Ryan’s, just not as tough. She ran messaging that spoke of abortion rights and attacked her opponents radcalism, but she also talked of “bipartisanship,” “working across the aisle, etc., the kind of themes that drive some Democrats crazy.
But I’m a low maintenance Dem, so I just said to myself, “You go, Abigail, just win baby!” And she did.
dww44
@Professor Bigfoot: thank you for saying this. I’ve agreed all along. Democrats never prevail in red or purple states when they run away from being a Democrat. And he’s one of the best/worst at that game.
Ohio Mom
@dmsilev: That is a great story about your aunt’s ashes being added to the casket! I find it very heartening.
Our Jewish funeral home here did not bat an eye when Ohio Dad did the very traditionally Orthodox thing of staying up all night by his dad’s casket at the funeral home, reading psalms while wearing a suit and sneakers, for a body that was going to be cremated (a Jewish non-no).
I think Jewish funeral directors understand that modern American Judaism is a highly heterodox free-for-all and it’s not their place to judge, just to help families find meaning and comfort where they can.
And so our evolving religious civilization moves forward to meet the future (hat tip Mordecai Kaplan).
Ohio Mom
Ohio Mom
@Nelle: We HAVE civics in the Ohio curriculum!
It’s woven through the grades, with a required semester specifically devoted to American government in HS (bookended with an semester-long class combining economic principles (supply-and-demand, scarcity, etc.) with personal finance basics (budgeting, types of bank accounts, credit, etc.)).
It’s a revoltingly right-wing curriculum however. Curriculum is the most political part of public schooling that gets no attention.
artem1s
@Geminid:
Um, NO. JUST STOP. He needed the Cleveland and Akron Black leaders to turn out their communities for him. He needed Black and Latino and women SEIU members to turn out for him – not old dead retired white male fuck-you-I-got-mine steel and auto workers. If he hadn’t already won over HIS OWN DISTRICT’s voters he was never going to win them over.
Geminid
@artem1s: Did Ryan run much behind Representatives Shontelle Brown, Emilia Sykes and Joyce Beatty? If he did you may have an argument. But unless he did I’ll stand by what I said.
Any way you slice it, Ryan wasn’t going to win a state that Trump won by 8 points twice with base motivation alone.
And “NO, JUST STOP:” not all retired auto workers are white, and not all Republicans are white working class anyway. Ryan’s messaging was pitched as much to middle class and professional class Republicans and Independents as it was to the “white working class” that dominates so many people’s minds.
brantl
@twbrandt (formerly tom): yep
Professor Bigfoot
@Low Key Swagger: AS USUAL, Black people voted in droves for the Democrats; myself included as a vote for Ryan.
But *white people* who might be moved to vote for their wallets than their skin color– weren’t.
Professor Bigfoot
@Geminid: Look, Black folks vote OVERWHELMINGLY for Democrats.
That’s not Tim’s problem, though plenty of white people will try to say that lack of Black support is why he lost.
No, his problem is *white people.*
White people who weren’t interested in conservative lite, and preferred the real thing.
Professor Bigfoot
@Geminid: no.
He ran so hard away from President Biden you couldn’t see him from there.
I live here, I saw his ads, and I felt as a Black voter that they were entirely focused on the so-called “white working class.”
We Black folks vote for harm reduction because we have no fucking choice, but white people… well, most of y’all would prefer that we disappear or just die en masse so as not to clutter your beautiful, perfect communities.
So it’s white people.
Please don’t try to blame Tim Ryan’s debacle on us. This cockup is ENTIRELY on him.