We’re going to start with Kherson above the jump. Because there’s something I want to highlight that I’ve only seen emphasized by Shashank Joshi of The Economist while everyone else focuses on the retreat/withdrawal across the river stuff. Kommersant reported that during his broadcast to everyone briefing this morning, General Surovikin told Minister of Defense Shoigu the following (emphasis mine):
During the report at the command post of the joint group of troops, Mr. Surovikin told the Minister of Defense that the Ukrainian armed forces have plans to create a flood zone below the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.
Since all of you are and have been paying close attention you’re all probably thinking “this isn’t news, President Zelenskyy accused the Russians of mining the Khakhovska dam last month”. And you would be correct:
President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday, Oct 20, accused Russia of planting mines at a hydroelectric dam in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine, which is under the control of Moscow’s forces.
“According to our information, the aggregate and dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant were mined by Russian terrorists,” Zelensky said in his daily address published on social networks.
“If the dam is destroyed… the North Crimean canal will simply disappear”, and this would be “a catastrophe on a grand scale”, the Ukraine leader added.
Earlier Thursday Zelensky told the European Union that “Russia’s leadership has given the order to turn the energy system itself into a battlefield.”
What’s different, and why I’ve started with Kommersant‘s reporting, is this is the first time that I’ve seen the Russians actually confirm that they’ve prepared to blow the dam, let alone that they intend to do so. And that’s why I think this portion of Surovikin’s briefing should be the focus. Unless Surovikin is blowing smoke, unless this is maskirovka, unless the Ukrainians can stop them, Surovikin is going to blow the dam to (try to) cover the Russian retreat across the river, buy additional time for the Russians to dig in to their new positions, further degrade Ukraine’s energy generating capacity going into winter, and create a new wave of internally displaced Ukrainians or Ukrainian refugees to further stress Ukraine and the EU. Short of using chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons in Kherson this would be the Russian’s most deadly course of action (MDCOA).
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!
Today, the day started very early with a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. The situation at the front line was analyzed in detail. South, east… Very carefully – Donbas.
The greatest confrontation is now in Donetsk region, it’s very important, a lot is being decided there. Any losses there are further losses in the country. That’s why we stand. We stand firm. We don’t surrender anything.
I thank each of our heroes who are holding back these terrible attacks of the occupiers. Constant attacks.
South. We are moving gradually, strengthening our positions step by step.
There is a lot of joy in the media space today, and it is clear why. But our emotions must be restrained – always during war.
I will definitely not feed the enemy with all the details of our operations, either in the south, or in the east, or anywhere else. When we have our result, everyone will see it. For sure.
Maybe it doesn’t sound like what anyone expects now. Maybe not as in the news. But you need to understand: no one just gets away if they don’t feel the strength. The enemy does not bring us gifts, does not make “gestures of goodwill.” We fight our way up. And when you are fighting, you must understand that every step is always resistance from the enemy, it is always the loss of the lives of our heroes.
Therefore, we move very carefully, without emotions, without unnecessary risk. In the interests of the liberation of our entire land and so that the losses are as small as possible. This is how we will secure the liberation of Kherson, Kakhovka, Donetsk, and other our cities.
But this will be the result of our efforts, our defense operations, those that are currently ongoing, those that we are planning.
And now I want separately and once again to warn everyone in Moscow who makes the relevant decisions: any attempt by you to blow up the Kakhovka HPP and flood our territory and dehydrate the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will mean that you are declaring war on the whole world. Think what will happen to you then.
At the meeting of the Staff we also discussed the supply and production of weapons – our weapons – the repair of equipment, the strengthening of our anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense, which is ongoing, the recovery of critical infrastructure, primarily energy, after the Russian terrorist attacks.
As of this evening, there are electricity blackouts to stabilize the situation in 15 regions and the city of Kyiv. There are no emergency blackouts.
Wherever electricity is out, it should be in accordance with published schedules. Please, if the blackout at your house or street is not on schedule today, notify the local authorities and representatives of the energy company that serves you. They must change the situation and stick to the schedule.
I spoke today with the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte. Just about recovering our energy sector, protection of the Ukrainian sky. Thank you for your willingness to help!
Separately, we discussed the export grain initiative, the fundamental need to extend and expand our grain exports. We agreed to cooperate even more closely to support Ukrainian initiatives at the UN.
Tomorrow will be a very active negotiation day – many contacts are planned.
It is these days that we are completing our preparations for Ukraine’s possible participation in the G20 summit next week. The Ukrainian stance has been shaped. As always, our stance will be in the interests of global security.
In the evening, I signed another decree on awarding our soldiers. 106 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were given state awards.
And one more thing is very important.
Today is the Day of Ukrainian Writing and Language and the Ukrainian Day of Cultural Workers and Masters of Folk Art. There was also a dictation of national unity. I thank everyone who joined writing the dictation, it is an important annual tradition.
And you know… Today I want to congratulate not only those who teach languages and literature, work in the field of culture and preserve folk art. I want to congratulate all our people. Ukraine holds. Ukraine defends itself. And will definitely defend.
It is no longer a question of whether Ukraine and everything Ukrainian exist. Ukraine exists. Ukraine will exist.
And our enemy will die – they will die like the dew does in the sunshine. Or like the Russian river crossings under the strikes of the HIMARS systems.
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Kherson:
KHERSON AXIS/ FLASH TRAFFIC/ 1550 UTC 9 NOV/ RU forces are reported to be executing a withdrawal from all N bank positions around Kherson. UKR forces have been granted a golden opportunity to smash retreating RU units while motion. Mass RU casualties expected at river crossings. pic.twitter.com/sFQ45ZeExL
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 9, 2022
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is their updated map for today:
Here’s analysis from The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko:
What is happening in the Kherson region now is the result of smart warfare – slowly and carefully undermining the enemy’s ability to continue fighting, and getting a huge gain when the moment comes.
Which is quite different from Russia’s dumb human waves and frontal assaults.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 9, 2022
In other words, Russia has lost this war.
Now the question is how much of its own sovereign territory Ukraine will be able to retake (ideally, all 100%, of course) and how soon Russia will be forced into requesting an armistice.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 9, 2022
🇺🇦Ukraine’s upcoming official Christmas post stamp.
This painting titled “Separated by war” was created by Valeria Mykhailova, a schoolgirl originally from Mykolaiv. pic.twitter.com/3BRv8qAMa9— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 9, 2022
I just checked Ukrposhta’s online store and it doesn’t appear to be for sale yet. I’ll keep checking and as soon as I see it listed, I’ll let you know. If someone sees it before me, email me the link.
One last item before we finish up. Tonight is the anniversary of Kristallnacht:
In an article on the evening of 11 November, Joseph Goebbels ascribed the events to the "healthy instincts" of the German people: "The German people are anti-Semitic. It has no desire to have its rights restricted or to be provoked in the future by parasites of the Jewish race." pic.twitter.com/AIVyL7vW84
— Auschwitz Memorial (@AuschwitzMuseum) November 9, 2022
After the November Pogrom some 30,000 Jewish men were sent to the Buchenwald, Dachau & Sachsenhausen camps, where hundreds died later. Release came only after some agreed to emigrate and to transfer their property to “Aryans.” https://t.co/k3bokit8Dz pic.twitter.com/F8MuYPgYb0
— Auschwitz Memorial (@AuschwitzMuseum) November 9, 2022
‘Holocaust–the destruction of European Jews’
A seven-chapter online course about the history of the #Holocaust.
Links to all chapters below.https://t.co/xMYdiESLQI— Auschwitz Memorial (@AuschwitzMuseum) November 9, 2022
Harrowing, previously unseen images from 1938′s November Pogrom against German and Austrian Jews in the Third Reich have surfaced in a photograph collection donated to @yadvashem.https://t.co/qqnSFfzIXf
— Auschwitz Memorial (@AuschwitzMuseum) November 9, 2022
JERUSALEM (AP) — Harrowing, previously unseen images from 1938′s Kristallnacht pogrom against German and Austrian Jews have surfaced in a photograph collection donated to Israel’s Yad Vashem memorial, the organization said Wednesday.
One shows a crowd of smiling, well-dressed middle-aged German men and women standing casually as a Nazi officer smashes a storefront window. In another, brownshirts carry heaps of Jewish books, presumably for burning. Another image shows a Nazi officer splashing gasoline on the pews of a synagogue before it’s set alight.
Jonathan Matthews, head of Yad Vashem’s photo archive, said the photos dispel a Nazi myth that the attacks were “a spontaneous outburst of violence” rather than a pogrom orchestrated by the state. Firefighters, SS special police officers and members of the general public are all seen in the photos participating in the Kristallnacht. The photographers themselves were an integral part of the events.
Matthews said these were the first photos he was aware of depicting actions taking place indoors, as “most of the images we have of Kristallnacht are images from outside.” Altogether, he said, the photos “give you a much more intimate image of what’s happening.”
The photos were taken by Nazi photographers during the pogrom in the city of Nuremberg and the nearby town of Fuerth. They wound up in the possession of a Jewish American serviceman who served in Germany during World War II — how, precisely is uncertain, he never talked about them to his family.
His descendants, who declined to give his name, donated the album to Yad Vashem as part of the institution’s effort to collect Holocaust-era objects kept by survivors and their families.
Yad Vashem said the photos help demonstrate how the German public was aware of what was going on, and that the violence was part of a meticulously coordinated pogrom carried out by Nazi authorities. They even brought in photographers to document the atrocities.
Despite Nazi censorship, The Associated Press was able to send pictures from Kristallnacht when it happened that were widely used in the U.S. The images included a burning synagogue, a youth preparing to clean up glass from a Jewish shop that had been vandalized, and people standing outside damaged shops in the aftermath of the attacks.
More at the link, including the photo gallery.
It is important to remember as we work our way through the anniversaries of some of the war and war related events of the early 20th century this week that we keep in mind that just as the NAZIs sought to eradicate the Jews to establish the Third Reich, that Putin and the Russians seek to eradicate Ukraine and the Ukrainians as an independent sovereign state and a distinct people with their own culture to establish Putin’s fictional Ruskiy Mir.
Never again should actually mean something.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
180/250 are sold. But Wanderlust (the company which produces my merchandise decided to give all 250 t-shirts to the hospital) So soon I’ll show you happy unpacking🥰
— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 9, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Який лук сподобався найбільше?😁 #песпатрон #патрондснс
The caption machine translates as:
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Open thread!
Alison Rose
This part! I have never heard a threat delivered quite so poetically. Zelenskyy has to be one of the most skilled communicators I’ve ever seen. Not just in politics, but any field at all.
I have such a mishmash of emotions regarding Kherson. I want to believe Ukraine will kick russia’s asses all the way to the border, but I’m also terrified at what fresh hell the invaders will unleash, since we know they don’t give a damn about anyone or anything except putin’s ego and stealing land. I know armchair diagnosing is frowned upon, but I’m convinced that all of the people at the top in russia, as well as a major portion of those beneath, are absolute sociopaths.
I will say though, this Saint Javelin post made me cackle.
That stamp is beautiful and I do hope they make it available to purchase internationally.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Jinchi
Didn’t the Russians just pull a similar stunt by destroying the Oskil dam near Izium?
Still it seems like, in this case, the Russians would be doing more damage to their own side. The flood zone appears to be largely on the south side of the river and they’d be sabotaging the source of water for Crimea.
HinTN
Never again should mean something, Adam. Thanks for all you do to keep this at the forefront of our often amnesiac awareness.
OverTwistWillie
@Jinchi:
Nerobefehl.
There is no strategy, only lashing out in wanton destruction.
MomSense
@HinTN:
Well said. Adam is a treasure.
Marmot
OT—sorry. But a few days ago, a commenter mentioned a German museum that features a great exhibition on right-wing populism, including how to recognize the signs (in rhetoric, societal behavior, or individual tendencies? I don’t recall.)
Anyone know which museum? Munich maybe? I’m interested in the process that leads up to this insanity.
Sparkedcat
Slava Ukraini. Thank-you Mr. Silverman for these updates. Zelensky is a leader worthy of respect. Hopefully Ukraine will be provided with actams very soon.
Parfigliano
@Alison Rose: Yup sociopaths leading sociopaths. Russia is a shithole country. No doubt why Trump favors them.
citizen dave
Kristallnacht. I’m just an ordinary midwestern wasp (methodist) raised late boomer, but I still recall being assigned to do a paper in school about this, and I think it was the time myself and a classmate (girl) read it over the P.A. Want to say 5th grade. I regularly think about the holocaust even with no particular family connections or friends to it–just for the sake of humanity.
Great post–so many details. You had me looking at the maps of the power station. Maps says 351 MW, which isn’t huge compared to some our super large plants, but for sure a large amount of capacity given the region’s needs, and important as hydro is highly reliable electricity. The reservoir behind it looks positively huge.
Another Scott
Thanks Adam.
PSA – For those put-off by the waiting list for a Mastodon account, I got notice today that my requested account on mstdn.social was approved. 4-5 days.
Still don’t know when/if I’ll actually use it…
Hang in there.
Cheers,
Scott.
bbleh
Ah nuts, I was worrying weeks ago about either this (once the mining was reported) or a battlefield nuke, if the Russians pulled back from Kherson. Quite apart from the tactical advantages for guarding retreat and blocking advance (along with a possible serious body count if Ukraine were to mass troops in Kherson, which I can’t imagine they’d do, but some Russians might), there’s a strong whiff of “if we can’t have it, nobody can,” plus maybe a chaser of “showing resolve” or something similarly dumb.
But here’s a question: I’ve also thought that the loss of Kherson might be the kind of event that would really rattle some political cages among the Russian leadership, that hard questions might start to be asked about what Putin intends to accomplish at this point and how. I’d be very interested in hearing more informed opinion about that.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose:
This is verbatim from the national anthem. Every Ukrainian recognizes the reference instantly.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Ahh, good to know! I’ve heard the song but only in Ukrainian, had not read a translation (or if I did, I forgot). But it was an excellently chosen phrase to use here. And I admit, the HIMARS line made me smack my coffee table with glee.
Redshift
Since the Ukrainian government publicly reported the mining of the dam some time ago, and it’s not that far from the front, I’m hoping there was a special forces operation to disable the mines, and if Russia pushes the button, nothing happens. That’s probably more action-movie than is realistic, but I’ll keep the hope that this turns out like their “really, we might use nukes!” threats, and the promise of severe consequences (plus the direct risks to their own forces) means it never happens.
japa21
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you. Love the bits of background you provide.
On a related note, which you might at a minimum relate to, and hopefully enjoy, a story from yesterday.
I work as a poll judge every election. Generally we have the same people every time, but yesterday we had a new person for our precinct. He was born in Germany after WWII but proudly states he is Ukrainian. I won’t bore you with the history of why so many born in Germany are proudly Ukrainian, as you know it well.
Well, one of the election judges got into a discussion with him about how the US and NATO were responsible for Putin invading Ukraine by pushing for Ukraine to join NATO (not true) and Ukraine seeking it. And besides, Ukraine was Russian and it was mostly Russians living in Ukraine.
I admired Nick’s restraint as he gave Ron a little lesson in history and much more. Occasionally I would join in with some of the education you have provided. Ron’s last, feeble response was asking how the US would respond if Canada or Mexico had sought to become part of the Soviet Union.
By the end of the evening, he had changed is tune to a great degree.
There was also a Ukrainian couple who voted in the evening and Nick and they had a nice discussion. Nick is a Republican but has absolutely no warmth for the current crop of the GOP.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: Here’s a translation: https://www.ukrainianlessons.com/anthem/
Jay
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you. It’s beautiful. Puts ours to shame, IMO.
Gin & Tonic
@japa21: Nice story. I know scores, perhaps hundreds of people exactly like Nick. Perhaps I even know Nick. I am impressed at his restraint, because those kinds of conversations (in other venues, of course) often end badly.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: Good to see you. Hope you’re doing okay.
japa21
@Gin & Tonic:
If I thought you lived in the Chicago suburbs, I would have thought he was you. Now, when I read your comments, I will read them hearing his voice. He’s an Air Force veteran who served in Vietnam. His wife grew up in Ukraine and when she arrived in this country didn’t know how to drive. He says she is a real pro now. (Should point out this is his second wife who came here 10 years ago). He is a professor at a local college.
zhena gogolia
@japa21:
Is this one of those red-diaper babies types? We have them around here.
Jay
japa21
@zhena gogolia: Not sure how I would categorize him. Nice guy and he was willing to listen and did soften his stance considerably as the day went on.
ETA: He was reminded of Putin’s earlier excursions into Georgia, Moldova, etc. He actually got a semester’s worth of history lessons in a couple hours.
Bill Arnold
@Parfigliano:
This sprawling piece, and some of the references (and responses), might be of interest to some.
The problem of pathocracy – Do psychologists have a responsibility to help prevent ruthless, amoral people attaining positions of power? Steve Taylor considers the arguments. (27 September 2021)
Enhanced Voting Techniques
You should have asked him WTF did he think the British Empire as back in the day and did he ever hear of War Plan Orange.
phdesmond
@Gin & Tonic:
here’s something i clipped on October 10, after the russians began their revenge terror bombing of Ukraine. it’s recognizably the same tune, but the words differ.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1579592461621788672
rekoob
Adam —
Thanks again for all you do and the poignant reminder of Kristallnacht.
In 1988, I was living and working in Frankfurt. I joined a choir sponsored by Hessian Broadcasting (Hessicher Rundfunk), the regional public radio/television service. Most of the time, we gave concerts that were designed to be little choral snippets that HR could splice into its classical program from time to time.
In late September 1988, we were asked to join a larger group of choristers (in this case, men) who would perform Arnold Schoenberg’s A Survivor from Warsaw in remembrance of Kristallnacht. We did so on the 50th anniversary in November at the Alte Oper in the center of Frankfurt. In keeping with the solemnity of the occasion, we did not wear our usual evening clothes, but instead dark shirts and trousers much in keeping with Schoenberg’s vision that the men’s chorus should look like survivors and refugees.
It remains one of the most moving, and haunting, moments of my life.
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: Been spending more time outdoors. Life is short.
Gin & Tonic
@phdesmond: Yeah, that AI translation is terrible.
Alison Rose
@Jay: Maybe he was trying to light a cigarette while driving and lost control of the car. Those russians, always smoking in dangerous situations.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Marmot: FWIW, I recently got a copy of Timothy Snyder’s book, On Tyranny, which considers symbols and behaviors precursory to modern authoritarianism. It’s an illustrated “primer,” and I think a good intro.
oldster
Surovikin’s comments are alarming, it’s true — whenever the russians say that their enemies might commit an atrocity, you know that they are threatening to commit that very atrocity. (Every accusation is a confession — did the Republicans learn it from putin, or is it just the way of abusers and psychopaths from time immemorial?)
Still, I suspect that the tactical aim of Surovikin’s threat is to attempt to make Ukraine stay its hand while the russian forces are retreating across the river. I suspect that he is implicitly threatening to blow the dam *if* they don’t let the retreating forces cross in good order.
Once the fleeing russians have crossed, it is not in their interest to blow those dams — the banks are actually lower on the eastern (“left”) bank. And precipitating a *literal* meltdown of the nuclear plants upstream is something that even putin would be very reluctant to do. So, I think there is a lot of bluster in these threats.
Surovikin took this job pretty recently, after the Kharkiv debacle and the sacking of the last loser. When he took it, he knew that Kherson was already lost. And I’m sure that one of his conditions was that he not be blamed for the loss of Kherson, as his predecessors were sacked for their failures in Kyiv and Kharkiv.
So, he has tried to cushion himself from the blow. But the loss of Kherson is still a bitter blow, as can be seen on Fox News Moscow (thanks, Julia Davis, for your amazing coverage!). No wonder that they are trying to save face by threatening. I say, it’s a bluff.
Tony G
@Jinchi: “they’d be sabotaging the source of water for Crimea”. Are the Russians that self-destructive and stupid? I guess we’ll find out.
Jay
@Alison Rose:
Current Russian claims are that it was a collision between his vehicle, (an armoured truck) and a Russian Military truck, caused by “his driver”. He was fleeing Kherson and the accident took place just underneath a road sign pointing to Kherson.
Tony G
@oldster: I wonder how many of Putin’s threats since February 24th have turned out to be fake bluster. A pretty high percentage. I’d bet.
OverTwistWillie
Attempting an organized withdrawal with project 300k conscripts stiffened by a bit of VDV and Spetsnaz is a recipe for disaster.
With Snihurivka gone, things are likely to get hairy on the retreats back to assigned crossings (assuming they even exist). Traffic can get ballzd up for a whole host of reasons that don’t even involve UA interdiction fire.
Jay
Jay
@OverTwistWillie:
Lyrebird
@Jay: I on the other hand am anxious that yes the announcement was theater and is in fact a trap.
The Ukr military has been cautious from before Day 1, so I am sure they do not trust RU theater and do verify everything they can.
Mallard Filmore
1) How much of their 3 lines of defense on the south bank would go underwater?
2) How many souls can Crimea sustain without the irrigation water? I understand all the farms will dry up, and lots of other economic activity will stop.
3) Is there enough fresh water in Crimea to sustain its population plus the Russian army? Will the “Russianized” locals have to flee?
Ixnay
@rekoob: I tip my hat. What a great performing experience.
OverTwistWillie
@Jay:
Putin pinned a medal on him before he was even cold.
Jay
@Lyrebird:
the RA started “relocating’ Command and Control out of Kherson, the last week of August,
they started “relocating” Contract Soldiers out of Kherson in late October.
they left a few Companies of Contract Soldiers in Kherson and moved 3,000 or more “mobliks” in, “garrisoning” them in fortified positions at the prison, ( the prisoners were “mobilized”) and at the airport.
The past week they have looted what they can loot, destroyed the internet, cell service and phone lines, ( cutting their own remaining troops off from communications) and two days ago, started blowing up suburban/urban bridges in Kherson.
I don’t think it’s a “trap”, and I trust that the UA knows “exactly” what is going on and will act accordingly.
Alison Rose
@Jay: Yes, I believe them. Thousands wouldn’t.
Lyrebird
@Jay: Thanks.
I appreciated your filling in the details of what Unknown Known or Known Unknown stated in general terms the other day, specifiying what the Czech tank upgrades would do. Pardon inaccuracies in my reference.
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
If you can, what’s the immediate objective for UA now that RU are fleeing? Is it capture/destruction of materiel, capture of POWs, pushing the artillery forward to destroy the southbank defenses before RU can even get there, etc.?
And to what extent are these plans limited by the uncertainty of the possible (probable?) destruction of the dam at Khakhovska?
YY_Sima Qian
In 1938, reeling from the Japanese invasion since 1937, the then Kuomintang government decided to open a dike on the Yellow River at Huayuankou in Henan Province, causing a massive flood, in hopes of slowing down the Japanese advance & cover their retreat toward Wuhan. Hundreds of thousands of civilians died, millions became refugees. Vast areas of farmland were inundated. The course of the Yellow River was temporarily shifted for hundreds of kms. It was one of the great (self-inflicted) tragedies during WW II.
The Japanese advance south from Northern China was halted, but the invaders continued to advance west from the Yangtze River Delta, and captured Wuhan a few months later, anyway. The CCP forces took advantage of the grievances of the local population to establish a major base area in the flood plains, from which they contested the control of the Japanese invaders & the KMT regime.
Sad & depressing how history repeats. Of course, the Russians will do this on foreign territory. One more to the list of war crimes.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: The one thing that they can’t possibly help leaving behind is thousands of soldiers — mostly mobiliks, as you’ve pointed out — who are in contact all along the front, and for whom there is zero chance of any kind of successful fighting withdrawal.
This is the strange aspect of the Russian operation, which leaves one wondering what’s missing from the picture.
I had a very ugly moment a few days ago wondering whether the “dirty bomb” phone calls that Shoigu made were prep for setting one off in Kherson, and blaming the Ukrainians for murdering their poor Russian kids. Wouldn’t make any difference — NATO would hammer them anyway, and Austen presumably made him understand that, but, well, it’s not like these guys have a history of good decision-making. I just hope they stay deterred.
Carlo Graziani
@bbleh:
So far as I can see, there is fatalism in Russia concerning the loss of Kherson, and the new recognition of the fact that the war is (a) a ” War”, and (b) going really, fecally badly, is in the open, and driving a more-or-less open political crisis/struggle/standoff. We only see the surface indications of that struggle in things like pronouncements on Telegram by prominent siloviki, sudden firings or promotions of personnel, inscrutably stupid, strategically indefensible operations of war carried out separately from the main campaign (Bakhmut), etc.
We can’t really know based on these indications what the detailed state of play is in the Kremlin, and whether things are close to coming to a crisis. However it seems likely that Western intelligence penetration of Russian political processes is still as good as ever: in today’s UK MOD’s update, there is a reference in the second bullet to a briefing provided to Putin contradicting official statements on repairs to the Kerch bridge. That suggests that MI6 has multiple sources, and isn’t worried about letting on that the Kremlin still leaks. We know the same goes for CIA. Bottom line is that we might be better off watching the Biden administration’s actions and preparations and levels of alarm, than trying to scry the future by reading sodden Russian tea leaves. At the moment, I don’t see the administration raising the panic level, or using it’s tried-and-true tactic of divulging what it knows of Russian intentions ahead of time to wrong-foot the Kremlin.
The main aftermath of the Kherson campaign that I see coming is thousands of mobilik POWs being very publicly marched off to camps by the Ukrainians, and milked savvily for every ounce of propaganda value. That could produce some kind of seismic event in Russia, but it’s hard to predict the magnitude scale, type, direction, etc.
way2blue
In 2011 I visited Washington DC for the first time, to attend my daughter’s ‘white coat’ ceremony at the Georgetown Medical School. I’d asked friends which museums to visit during the limited free time we had. The Holocaust Museum. I distinctly remember the white-haired gentleman who escorted us to the elevator, explaining the layout of the museum, directing us to the cards—each with brief details about a victim’s life. But chillingly, he told us that the flip from ‘normal’ life to terror happened abruptly. His warning about malign forces at work in the U.S. during the Obama years. And here we are…
way2blue
@Gin & Tonic:
Ah. That explains an exchange between Zelensky & a Stanford grad student I watched last June. (Michael McFaul streamed a live address Zelensky gave to graduating students. After his standard speech about Ukraine’s challenges & what support they required, students were given time to ask questions.) This particular grad student was involved in an effort to code an app that would provide remote medical app’ts for Ukranians who were ‘house-bound’. Zelensky asked this young woman where she was from (I heard no accent), was she Ukranian? She said, “No, she was from Hamberg, Germany”. Zelensky, with a smile, said, “That’s Ukraine!”. Heart-warming to see him lighten up, smile & joke with the students.
way2blue
@Jay:
Illia Ponomarenko speculated yesterday that this was a feigned death, so Stemousov could slip away. Curious to know if his death has been confirmed.
currawong
Adam, from what I’ve been reading over the last few months, a large part of Russia’s experienced fighting resource was lost in the rush for Kyiv and their units severely degraded and a decent proportion of the remainder was moved into Kherson to hold it. As it’s been extremely difficult to move them out, is it still the case that the Russian troops in Kherson are important to the Russians to be able to carry on any sort of military operation?
I believe that the Ukranian forces have been within range of all of the river crossings and have been targeting them for months. Is it likely that any attempted retreat from Kherson will be costly and seriously degrade the ability of Russia to continue? Have I got this right or have Russia been able to extract their experienced forces and replace them with conscripts?