Mark Kelly is declared the winner in Arizona!
Let the celebrating begin.
Open thread.
Update: per Suzanne, NBC has called the AZ Secretary of State race for Adrian Fontes! This is so important. His opponent was beyond batshit crazy.
This post is in: Open Threads
Mark Kelly is declared the winner in Arizona!
Let the celebrating begin.
Open thread.
Update: per Suzanne, NBC has called the AZ Secretary of State race for Adrian Fontes! This is so important. His opponent was beyond batshit crazy.
Comments are closed.
Leslie
Wooty woot woot!!!
Albatrossity
Sweet!
randal m sexton
And he and his wife are good people so YAAAY!!
Im finger crossing for Will Rollins – who cold called me a while ago – and Marie Glusenkamp Perez! Go D’s!
WaterGirl
it’s been pretty clear for awhile that Mark Kelly was going to win, but it sure is nice to KNOW that he has won!
WaterGirl
The folks on the ground are super confident the Cortez-Masto and Cisco Aguilar are both going to win. There’s a difference between knowing / believing and having them declared winners!
scav
Ha HA!!!
eachother
Who wouldn’t vote for an astronaut? I cannot imagine.
bbleh
Kari Lake has announced that she and her family have been targeted by BLM antifa terrorists using space lasers and, uh, immigrants, who, uh, have been vaccinated with microchips and are under the control of Bill Gates, and so they are going into hiding until an audit reveals all the fraud and she is declared Governor.
WaterGirl
Mousebumples sent me a link to this set of tweets – lots more to celebrate in there, too.
WaterGirl
@bbleh: That can’t possibly be real. Right?
edit: Is that The Onion?
WaterGirl
@randal m sexton: Who is Will Rollins?
edit: And why did he call you?
bbleh
@WaterGirl: the numbers are looking very good indeed for Cortez-Masto. She’s gained ground with every release, and there’s no sign of a trend like they’ve been seeing in AZ with late-delivered ballots favoring Republicans. I’m much happier than I was a day and a half ago …
Let the Republican bloodletting begin! (Metaphorically speaking, of course.)
Ken
@WaterGirl: Horrifying that you can’t really be sure, isn’t it?
bbleh
@WaterGirl: that it’s even remotely plausible is truly a sign of the times. But I don’t think that kind of wack nonsense has the traction it used to have. It’s so … last season
(No, just beer. And a little giddiness that omigodweremaybegonnaholdthesenateomigod)
marcopolo
Also, it was Mark Kelly & Gabby Gifford’s 15th wedding anniversary yesterday! Good for him, good for them. Been following the uncalled house races. At this rate it is still possible for the D’s to hold the majority though it is more likely the R’s have a one or two or three seat margin. Of course, I’d rather see the D’s in charge but I’m also pretty sure that watching the R’s try to do anything with 218 or 219 votes is going to be entertaining in the most shadenfreudilific way possible. With the added bonus that control of the House could flip back and forth one or more times over the next couple years as seats open up for various reasons
Edited to add I have no effing clue what happens if there are even numbers of D & R house members because someone died. Anyone have any idea what happens? Stalemate till a special election?
evodevo
@WaterGirl: there was a “suspicious” envelope found at her headquarters last week (that turned out to have NOTHING in it lol), but I haven’t seen any tweets like that…
WaterGirl
@Ken: All those crazy election deniers are horrifying. The fact that she looks like a plastic Stepford doll makes it even more terrifying.
I’m sure she gives someone a tingle up their leg, but I would sooner be attracted to a blow-up doll than to her.
Scout211
Laxalt is already preparing to ask for a recount, according to many news sources. Even though publicly he is acting confident, he and his campaign staff must be seeing what the Dems are seeing—that Cortez-Masto will likely win.
Matt McIrvin
@eachother: There have been some politically crappy astronauts. But Mark Kelly is a good guy.
WaterGirl
@Scout211: Yes. Here’s an article about that. Of course, it’s from the Daily Mail, but it has details.
H.E.Wolf
It’s great to see local and statewide victories in states where Four Directions, Voces de la Frontera, and VAAC have been doing GOTV: AZ, WI, MI, and NV in particular.
Suzanne
Ahhhhh I am so proud and happy!
I take just a wee bit of credit. Years of canvassing.
marcopolo
@H.E.Wolf: Yep. I just hope that the Wisconsin Democratic party makes it a priority to get a non-partisan redistricting committee amendment into the state constitution asap. Seeing the effect that had in PA this year (they passed theirs in the last election) to break the R gerrymandered legislative branch control has been really amazing.
Martin
CA update.
We got 2 calls:
CA-06: D hold
CA-26: D hold
Dem advantage +/disadvantage – [change from yesterday]
CA-03: – 6.0 [+0.6] (open seat)
CA-09: +12.6 [* ] (D incumbent)
CA-13: – 0.4 [* ] (open seat)
CA-21: +10.2 [+1.0] (D incumbent)
CA-22: – 8.4 [* ] (R incumbent)
CA-27: -12.0 [+0.8] (R incumbent)
CA-41: – 1.0 [* ] (R incumbent)
CA-45: – 9.0 [+0.2] (R incumbent)
CA-47: + 2.3 [+0.7] (D incumbent)
CA-49: + 3.4 [* ] (D incumbent)
Only 5 races updated (seems to depend on the timing of the county data to the state). As expected late mail is trending D in all of the data reported.
So, my stake in the ground yesterday was that out of 40,000 countywide processed ballots, Porter picked up +0.6 in the district. Today, similar amount processed, similar gain. So, late mail is less D partisan than early mail, but it’s so far consistently D partisan. I feel pretty safe projecting this for OC because the ballots aren’t geographically biased – it’s countywide USPS delivered. That will at some point change when they get to dropbox and vote center where blue or red parts of the county will get processed at different times. The net should be the same, but the daily will move about.
What I don’t have a sense of from counties that give less information is if they are doing USPS mail or geographically biased ballots now. If that’s happening in some of these other races then we can’t say anything about what future ballots might bring. CA-3 for instance is spread out over like 10 counties so it’s really hard to sort out what’s happening there without proper tools (which I don’t feel like writing – I’m retired). CA-13 should be pretty well behaved being entirely in Alameda, once we get some new data out of there.
I think 28 and 45 are out of reach for Dems. 47 should be safe. 9, 21, 49 look good. Not sure 03 and 27 are going to close fast enough despite the trend. More tomorrow. Still 4 million ballots to count.
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: Agree!
Promote the Vote, the folks who brought Prop 2 that secures voting rights as part of the Michigan constitution, actually did a lot of GOTV, too.
Well, not GOTV exactly, but you had to be registered to vote in order to sign the petition, so they registered a boatload of people on the spot so they could sign the petition. And our $25k to them was for fellowships from under-represented communities so those populations were also included. Instead of just going to the easy pickings communities (ie middle-class white people).
Timill
@Matt McIrvin: You’d think they were people or something…
Suzanne
NBC News is also calling the AZ Secretary of State race for Adrian FONTES!
Adrian Fontes is great and this is a huge win. AZ doesn’t have a Lieutenant Governor, and so the SOS is first in line to the governorship.
WaterGirl
@Martin: Really appreciate these CA House updates from you, Martin.
Scout211
FYI, from ballotpedia.org : Nevada rules for recount:
WaterGirl
@Suzanne: Wowser!
piratedan
if the trends hold in the AZ congressional races….
it may be a net loss of 1 one seat for the Dems…. as Kirkpatrick retired but we get a Ducey tool in Ciscomani leading….. Engel (really dirty campaign here as they ginned up Engel as a defund the police patsy)
Jevan Hodge may be able to dislodge Schweikert
but O’Halleran may be losing because they made his district even more Repub friendly.
Gin & Tonic
@marcopolo: Would have been a lot easier to hold the House if Sean Patrick Maloney weren’t a self-centered douchebag.
Scout211
@Suzanne: 👍
Suzanne
@piratedan: Schweikert is just a gigantic tool and I would love to see him lose. I hate Scottsdale so much.
WaterGirl
@Suzanne: I just added that up top, thank you!
This is so important for a lot of reasons. For one, his opponent was beyond batshit crazy.
Parfigliano
@WaterGirl: She isnt a blow up doll? Now Im confused.
WaterGirl
@piratedan:
Could you explain that a bit more for those of us who haven’t been following that?
Also, you said net loss of one seat. Are you talking about AZ House seats?
Yutsano
WA-03 isn’t over yet, but the maths right now aren’t on the side of Joe Kent. Our own beloved Kent might have a new Democratic congressperson!
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: NY has a lot of explaining to do.
Ken
@Scout211: Laxalt may be feeling conflicted. Fund-raising for a recount is very lucrative (see: Jill Stein, TFG), but you need to be behind to make sure the money rolls in.
Spanky
If Masto pulls it off in Nevada and we hit the magic 50, please FSM don’t let the Georgia voters ease up. A Senator Walker would be an insult to the state and the nation.
WaPo tells me Joe Lombardo (R) is projected to be the next Nevada governor. Sorry ’bout that, Nevadans.
WaterGirl
@Parfigliano: Kari Lake reminds me of the close-to-human bots in a TV show. Maybe it was called Humans? Something like that.
She gives me the HEEBIE-JEEBIES.
I don’t know how to spell that but i put in all caps so auto correct would quit making things worse.
dm
Boosted from the thread below because it’s more appropriate for this one:
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/democratic-sec-state-candidates-outperformed-governors-rcna56574
In four battleground states, Democratic Secretaries of State out-polled the Democratic gubernatorial candidates. I’d say voters have gotten pretty damned sophisticated about how this works.
(Sounds like it might be five or six now.)
Tony G
Thoughts and prayers to the prototype android called “Blake Masters”. Maybe the next version will have some humanoid characteristics.
Suzanne
@WaterGirl: So back in the 2016 primary, the Maricopa County Recorder decided to seriously reduce the number of polling places by something like 2/3. A huge cut. The primary was in May, which is already above 100 degrees. It was a shitshow. I waited in line for three hours, after work, outside in the heat and sun, along a busy major roadway, with no water, to vote at a police station four miles away from where I lived. It was a huge scandal.
So Fontes ran against Purcell for the Recorder position because he was so pissed. Won it, then lost it the next cycle. I’m thrilled that he’s back and better than ever!
James E Powell
@WaterGirl:
Will Rollins is the Democratic candidate running in CA-41 (where I live) against insurrectionist wing-nut Calvert. I gave him money, I texted for him, but I never dreamed he’d be this close. I’m used to the D more or less mailing it in.
Steve in the ATL
@eachother:
Floridians
@Suzanne:
Me too—and I used to have a place there!
WaterGirl
@Spanky: I keep saying that Walker isn’t fit to be a dog walker, but that’s too kind.
He’s not fit to come in once a day to refill the water bowls for the kitties who have an auto feeder for their food.
Splitting Image
While it would have been nice to win both houses, there is something to be said for winning the part of Congress that the Democrats need to have in order to get Biden’s judges appointed.
It may prove to be worth losing the House for two years if the bloodletting leads to Mitch McConnell’s ouster. He’s the strongest piece they have on the game board and if the knives are out for him because the Senate caucus lost a seat, then the Democrats get a big win by subtraction.
Omnes Omnibus
@marcopolo:
The next big thing in Wisconsin is April 4, 2023 Spring Election where we can flip the state supreme court by winning the seat up for election. At that point, lawsuits to challenge the gerrymanders, etc., will be viable.
Suzanne
@Steve in the ATL: I miss Tempe a lot, but it has Scottsdale as its hat.
marcopolo
@Gin & Tonic: Agree with this but the problem really began with Andrew Cuomo (christ, what an asshole) appointing more conservative NY state supreme court judges than needed–they threw out the legislature’s map . There was an analysis of the map the legislature drew vs the map that was used and the difference (with the actual vote as cast) was Rs winning only 4 seats using the legislature’s map vs winning 11 with the current map. And then there is the further issue that the NY state D party seems totally ineffective organizationally–I think Chris Hayes said that the NY D party leadership is more concerned about (and put more energy into) kneecapping progressives than beating Rs.
Omnes Omnibus
@Splitting Image: As far as I know, control of the House is still up in the air.
WaterGirl
@Suzanne: I had no idea!
Eolirin
@marcopolo: That’s also probably Cuomo’s fault.
And yeah, we definitely have the house with the legislature’s maps. Which is maddening.
Jackie
@WaterGirl: “She gives me the HEEBIE-JEEBIES.”
She’s Trump in a skirt. I have fingers, arms, eyes, toes and legs crossed for Katie Hobbs to eke out the win! And, if there’s a recount, may they find her count increases!
H.E.Wolf
WaterGirl
@James E Powell: Sounds like Will Rollins is a fighter, fingers crossed for a win.
WaterGirl
@Splitting Image: I strongly disagree. Having both houses is what allowed Biden and the Dems all the legislative wins.
It will be devastating if we lose the House. Not fatal, but devastating.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I would like to see us get more involved in special elections in all the key states. Wisconsin most definitely being a key state.
Maybe Balloon Juice can help bring the noise!
Kent
Well, Kent WA is in a different congressional district. I think the 9th which is heavily blue. I’m here in the 3rd and still waiting for today’s ballot drop. Haven’t seen anything yet for today. ARGH.
Ruckus
@bbleh:
That’s some pretty crappy acid she’s on……
marcopolo
@Eolirin: fixed it–the Rs won 7 more seats than they would have and there’s the majority right there. very happy to see that the IL Ds did a bang up job with their redistricting (14D/3R).
piratedan
@WaterGirl: Ann Kirkpatrick has stepped down from her congressional seat (rumoured alcoholic issues) and as such, turned that into an open seat. Engel vs Ciscomani ended up being one of those “toss up” races, where Engel comes across as a reasonable normal person, using humor in her ads noting the differences between the candidates… Ciscomani ran as a stepford dad while hiding his abortion position (full MAGA) and then did the usual posturing on crime and the border placing all of the blame on Biden and lumping Engel with him and the dreaded Pelosi. Ciscomanni was part of Ducey’s crew in Phoenix, so he’s just as odious as the rest of the GOP crew, just covered in a patina of “good conservative hispanic”.
Hodge is someone that we’ve supported here, who is doing what was close to being done the last two elections, which is to kick Schweikert to the curb. Its not over but Hodge has the lead atm.
O’Halloran had some of the tribal districts removed from his district and more of the rural wingnuttia drafted in and as such, he’s behind a bit and I’m not sure he can make it up.
so we lose Kirkpatrick/Engel and likely O’Halloran, but pick up Hodge (possibly) while Gosar, Biggs and Lesko return for the GOp and Gallego, Stanton and Grijalva return for the Dems.
Eolirin
@marcopolo: Yep. So pissed.
MobiusKlein
@Martin: I like that CA is thorough with vote counting – we did pass a proposition about it – but damn it, can we count a bits faster?
Steve in the ATL
@Ruckus: she was warned not to take the brown acid….
Kelly
The Oregonian has called OR CD5 for Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer. She leads 148,951 to Jamie McLeoud-Skinner’s142,856.
WaterGirl
@piratedan: Thanks for all of that. Very helpful.
WaterGirl
@Kelly: Fuck. I was hoping for a win there.
NotMax
@WaterGirl
Crappy U.S. remake of a really good Swedish series, Real Humans (Äkta människor)).
NotMax
Coding faux pas. Fix.
@@WaterGirl
Crappy U.S. remake of a really good Swedish series, Real Humans (Äkta människor).
Jackie
Adrian Fontes winning AZ SOS is a Big Biden Deal! Arizona is voting for Democracy!
Brachiator
This is very good news. I was watching a CNN news clip earlier and it was unclear whether any close contests were still undecided.
Ran across an NBC news story in which a pollster was saying that 63 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 voted for Democrats. People may change as they get older, but this is still bad news for Republicans.
James E Powell
@Gin & Tonic:
Soon, if it hasn’t started already, we will feel a powerful urge to kick ourselves & each other in the ass when it sinks in that holding the house was within reach. I am resisting that urge & hope that every Democrat does the same.
Our opponents are on the brink of a civil war. Their backbiting & finger pointing is going to be more intense because they all believed in the Red Wave. And because they are all assholes.
We need to stand united & start working on 2024. It’s going to be a very difficult senate campaign.
Kelly
@WaterGirl: We needed a Constitution Party weirdo running in CD5 to draw the most demented right wing votes away from the Republicans. Worked the Trick in CD6.
WaterGirl
@James E Powell: I will go on record as saying I always thought both the house and the senate were in reach.
We have stop listening – collectively – to the spin and the bullshit and the predictions and just do the work, believing we can win.
You can’t win if you don’t play, and NY did not show up for the midterms.
WaterGirl
@Kelly:
Except some of those Constitution Party weirdos win, and that’s really bad.
James E Powell
@MobiusKlein:
When Kamala Harris beat popular LA County DA Steve Cooley for Attorney General in 2010, it was weeks before it was over.
ETA – Checked wikipedia, which is always correct. It says Election Day November 2nd, Cooley conceded November 25.
WaterGirl
Bedtime for me, see you all in the a.m.
Kelly
@WaterGirl: Jamie is not conceding.
https://twitter.com/JamieforOregon/status/1591177308626616320
James E Powell
@NotMax:
I thought it was British TV.
mvr
@WaterGirl:
What’s the difference between a Constitution party weirdo and a Republican when it comes time to vote?
Jackie
@Brachiator: FOX pundits are suggesting raising the voting age to 21 for that very reason.
Makes *total sense* – eligible to die for your country at age 18. Able to purchase ARs at 18. Mature enough to carry and raise a baby at 10 yrs old
But not mature enough to vote at 18.
BlueGuitarist
@Omnes Omnibus:
@WaterGirl:
@H.E.Wolf:
Yeah! Yeah! Yeah!
Hurray for getting more folks effectively involved in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election!
mrmoshpotato
And Hobbs and Mayes are in the leads for the Governor’s race and the AG race respectively.
BlueGuitarist
@marcopolo:
Good to see you, seems like a long time.
Agree that a lot of this is Cuomo’s fault.
And probably a different outcome in some of those districts if not for $6 Million or $9 million in dishonest negative ads.
NotMax
@James E Powell
May have been; still crappy.
Eolirin
Wait, NY-22 hasn’t been called yet?
Wyatt Salamanca
@Spanky:
A Sen. Walker would also be an insult to reason, rationality, and decency.
Splitting Image
@WaterGirl:
True, but it’s also true that McConnell almost single-handedly put two Republicans on the Supreme Court. He’s been operating as a shadow President with no term limit for the past sixteen years and Roe vs Wade got overturned almost entirely because of him.
A split Congress means that no meaningful legislation gets done. Holding the Presidency and the Senate means judges get appointed, and that’s not nothing.
Martin
@MobiusKlein: No, we can’t. I mean, we can, but I’m glad we don’t. I’m glad they cure ballots the way they do. I’m glad they don’t push 24/7 just to appease the news networks.
I mean, we still receive ballots until Tuesday, so that’s really the earliest we can finish counts.
Martin
@Wyatt Salamanca: On the other hand, I think it means he pays for every woman’s abortion, so there is a benefit.
Eolirin
@Martin: I just took a closer look at the remaining races, and… neither side can take control of the house without the CA races.
This is gonna take a while…
BlueGuitarist
@Eolirin:
Conole (D) would need 75% of the ~8,000 remaining ballots to win; has 49% of the ballots counted.
BlueGuitarist
@Eolirin:
In 2018 Valadao’s district in CA was called Dec. 6, iirc
Eolirin
@BlueGuitarist: Yes, so why hasn’t it been called?
Betsy
@Martin: Dang! I like you. You’re smart.
BlueGuitarist
@Eolirin:
Possibly lack of the election night competition for calling races first.
might be around a week for ballot curing. Don’t know how much, if any, of that 8k are ballots that might be cured.
Campaigns probably know the party registration of ballots awaiting curing, and are probably scrutinizing signatures for mail ballots looking to challenge some. For both it seems unlikely that would change the outcome.
abundance of caution? a plan to call some group of them at the same time? fatigue?
James E Powell
@NotMax:
Agree. I wanted to like it but found it unwatchable.
MobiusKlein
@Martin:
I know we can’t finish for a while, but I’m curious why CA can’t be at 95% by now. Maybe since we do it with care and accuracy, there is no reason to rush. Why pay massive overtime working 24 hours a day, versus having a plan to finish on time without pain.
Eolirin
@Martin: So I looked at the outstanding races a little more closely and if your analysis is right, I think there’s a really good chance that 03 and 27 will decide who has the house. Unless Frisch and McLeod-Skinner pull it out, and then I don’t think we even need them.
Torrey
Re Mark Kelly’s win in AZ, CNN’s Abby Phillip mentions the grassroots GOTV effort “and don’t forget Navaho Nation, high turnout, almost unprecedented.” So it seems that 4 Directions’ efforts have been noticed, even if not called out by name. Her comment is almost exactly 8 minutes in.
Alison Rose
@Martin: Yeah, I definitely didn’t need to worry here in CA-04. Thompson is currently sitting on a 66.5 to 33.5 lead with 53% counted.
azlib
@Suzanne: Except there is a ballot inititive which looks like it will pass that gives AZ a Lt Governor. I think it goes into effect in the next Gov election.
WaterGirl
@Kelly: That’s great news! thank you
Mai Naem mobile
@Suzanne: they had a ballot about setting up a lieutenant governor position and last time I checked it was passing with a low margin.