This week has been going on for 3 months now
— Karen Attiah ON MASTODON @[email protected] (@KarenAttiah) November 10, 2022
Biden says it’s not impossible for Dems to win US House but unlikely. “It’s still alive. But it’s like drawing an inside straight,” he said, using a poker term for an unlikely outcome. To @GOPLeader, “I said: ‘If you win the majority, congratulations.’”https://t.co/37tHNQVR0f
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) November 11, 2022
Lesson for next time: when the main political force organizing Dems says it’s getting Dems to vote by mail and drop it, then …
… we don’t assume Dems are doomed until we know if they’ve voted by mail, including dropping it off late!
— Taniel (@Taniel) November 10, 2022
the base of the Democratic party will crawl over broken glass using their tongue in order to vote for a bollard with the letter D painted on it because they believe if the Republican wins they won't even get to vote for the bollard
— ?? REVEREND HOWARD ARSON (NO LISTS!!) ?? (@revhowardarson) November 11, 2022
.@JessicaTaylor of Cook Politico Report predicts to @NYTBlake that Dems will win AZ and NV Senate races, clinching control of the Senate even before the GA runoff. https://t.co/HdkmrKLjuO
— Trip Gabriel (@tripgabriel) November 11, 2022
I've seen enough: Sen. Mark Kelly (D) wins reelection in #AZSEN, defeating Blake Masters (R).
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 11, 2022
Good timing:
Happy anniversary to my incredible wife, @GabbyGiffords. You’re the smartest, strongest person I know. Thank you for every single one of our last 15 years together. Here’s to many more. pic.twitter.com/clD4nynBiV
— Captain Mark Kelly (@CaptMarkKelly) November 11, 2022
The insidious thing about election forecasting is that it’s spending a ton of time focused on predicting *what is going to happen* rather than *making happen what you want to happen*.
— The Fig Economy (@figgityfigs) November 10, 2022
It’s like if I spent the week before a test developing a model to predict my score on the test rather than, you know, studying for the goddamn test.
— The Fig Economy (@figgityfigs) November 10, 2022
If you care about the results of elections, if you have opinions about the things that our politicians do, then every moment you spend refreshing 538 instead of advocating/persuading is *at best* wasted entirely.
— The Fig Economy (@figgityfigs) November 10, 2022
Never (allow the Repubs to) forget:
3 out of 3. perfection https://t.co/kamNfs2WQj
— vocational politics stan account ???? (@Convolutedname) November 11, 2022
Baud
I hope Dems have learned not to listen to media prognosticators and talking heads
ETA: Also, too, the same type of people on social media.
lowtechcyclist
Has there been a merger? That would be unfortunate.
NotMax
What lies beneath Death?
;)
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone😊😊😊
rikyrah
Dolt45 is morphing into Alex from Fatal Attraction😂😂
The GOP ain’t ready😒😒
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
Baud
@rikyrah:
Heh.
OzarkHillbilly
Now that the election is over, it’s safe to say, Slowing US inflation rate raises hopes cost of living crisis may have peaked..
rikyrah
This is a BFD, I believe.
The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) tweeted at 7:54 AM on Fri, Nov 11, 2022:
⚡️Ukrainian troops have entered Kherson.
According to videos published online, Ukrainian soldiers are in downtown Kherson. People chant “glory to the Armed Forces!”
Kherson, the only Ukrainian regional capital occupied by Russia since Feb. 24, is now officially liberated. https://t.co/rhdfnDI8Pv
(https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1591066758592761857?s=02)
Ken
@Baud: That’s why I get all my news from Balloon Juice, Cracked, and the twitter accounts of Number10cat, DarthPutinKGB, and DPRK_News. Oh, and sometimes Popehat for legal analysis.
Ken
@NotMax: Oh, that’s going to end well.
Though I’m reminded that the Sessho-seki stone in Japan broken back in March, and that had absolutely none of the bad consequences that legend claimed. A fox demon would seduce powerful men and lead them to take stupid, self-destructive actions — ridiculous.
rikyrah
😂😂😂😂
Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 (@RonFilipkowski) tweeted at 7:13 AM on Fri, Nov 11, 2022:
Kellyanne Conway actually went on Fox last night and called for Trump, Desantis and Pence to share a stage with Herschel in a show of unity. Even the Fox host was looking at her like she’s lost her mind.
(https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1591056425337335814?s=02)
Leto
For Kay: It’s the women, stupid
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly:
I’ll give the media a slight pass because the inflation numbers didn’t come out until after the election.
rikyrah
Truth
Gregory Haynes (@pointofsucces) tweeted at 5:01 PM on Wed, Nov 09, 2022:
In Georgia 73% of White men & 70 % of White women voted for Hershel Walker while 93% of Black Women & 85% of Black men-didn’t.White Georgians aren’t voting“For”Hershel Walker because he’s qualified or a decent man of character- He’s not. They’re voting “against”Blacks in Georgia.
(https://twitter.com/pointofsucces/status/1590479669182500864?s=02)
p.a.
Did the NY Dem Party really f this up as much as some onliners (not necessarily here) I’ve seen are implying?
Or is it just internet mudslinging?
lowtechcyclist
I see @figgityfigs’ point about election forecasting, but I’d say a political party that wants to win needs to do a certain amount of polling, both non-horserace polling to get a fix on where their hoped-for voters are coming from, and horserace polling to be able to allocate resources in an informed manner. Not all races are going to be worth spending money on.
And sure, sometimes the party will make the wrong calls in that respect (clearly it happened a few times this year), but it’s still going to be better than just making decisions by someone’s gut.
But yeah, if you’re a political party, the vast majority of your resources should go into doing things that affect the outcome, rather than polling. And if you’re Joe or Jane Democrat, it’s better to write some postcards than to spend hours doomscrolling.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: Yeah, I just find the timing very interesting.
rikyrah
@p.a.:
I blame Cuomo for the judge that threw out the original redrawn districts for this BULLSHYT map
H.E.Wolf
Electoral-Vote blog mentions NY Times Pitchbot in today’s post. Although either they, or I, have been mistaken about who writes under that Twitter ‘nym. :)
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2022/Items/Nov11-7.html
frosty
@NotMax: “Archaeologists have begun excavating the mud deposits in and around the temple, and have thus far found two alabaster busts, coins with the images and names of Queen Cleopatra and Alexander the Great, headless statues, statues of the goddess Isis, and a variety of ceramic wares.”
Quick! Send this all to the British Museum where Egyptian antiquities belong!
Baud
@H.E.Wolf: They got it wrong. It’s DougJ.
TaMara
@H.E.Wolf: They are wrong. Unless John has been trolling us all these years with a fake nym on his own blog.
raven
@Leto: Happy Veterans Day!
Leto
@raven: Happy Veterans Day to you too! We’re currently getting the remnants of Nicole, which will last all day. Hope you and the missus do something fun today!
MazeDancer
Yes, there will be PostCards for the GA run-off.
Just as soon as we know if we’re writing “Save the Senate!!” or “Re-elect the Rev!”
Will be revising the 2020 GA run-off designs as soon as we know.
Ken
@TaMara: Have we ever seen John and DougJ in a room together?
Leto
@TaMara: what do you think the J stands for in DougJ? *evil cackle!
rikyrah
Voting matters 🗳⚖️. (@BumphBean) tweeted at 8:20 AM on Fri, Nov 11, 2022:
Hey folks, contact every registered voter you know in GA to make sure they vote by 12/6:
– Absentee ballot request deadline 11/28, but do it NOW
-Early voting by county option as early as 11/26, officially 11/28
-Last day EV, ballot dropboxes 12/2
-Last day to vote 12/6
🍑🤜🏼🤛🏾🍑
(https://twitter.com/BumphBean/status/1591073452433506306?s=02)
japa21
@OzarkHillbilly: What I find more interesting is how all the previous media reporting focused on year over year numbers, even though the month over month were looking better, but this time is the first time that month over month has been stressed.
Peale
@p.a.: There didn’t seem to be much urgency in the campaigning. But I still haven’t found the analysis of who showed up and who stayed home. I don’t think many people changed sides, I think it will turn out that it was more voter complacency on our part than anything else.
New Deal democrat
@OzarkHillbilly: The date of the CPI release for October was set by the Census Bureau many months ago, and has been typical for many years.
As to inflation itself, yes it is almost certainly receding back towards normalcy (gas prices permitting). Now tell the Fed, which seems determined to cause a Volcker-like deep recession next year.
lowtechcyclist
@OzarkHillbilly:
The schedule for those releases is set way in advance.
Looks like it always is released between the 10th and the 14th of each month.
ETA: New Deal Democrat beat me to it. :-)
Matt McIrvin
@rikyrah: Amazing.
MazeDancer
@p.a.: Maloney selfishly tried to steal a district. Karma got him.
So we lost Mondaire Jones and Maloney.
Kay
@Leto:
I hate the dumbness of polling. The blunt instrument. If you ask me “does inflation matter?” I’ll say yes but that doesn’t mean anything in terms of what I’m going to do. I have a more complicated, three part answer! Is this a cross examination? Why do I only get yes or no?
Eolirin
@p.a.: I have no idea how much other people are saying they fucked things up but they fucked things up. A lot. Between not getting good maps and Hochul’s margin being low, we may have cost Dems the House if the projections end up being correct. We’re going to give the Republicans an extra 4 seats.
Jeffro
@rikyrah: ain’t that the truth!
there are SO many good questions the media could be asking of GOP elected officials, whether they’re trumpies, never-trumpies, or I-was-for-trump-but-holy-heck-not-now
NotMax
@frosty
Awaiting the day archaeologists uncover vast repositories consisting of nothing but statue heads.
:)
OzarkHillbilly
@New Deal democrat: I thought the numbers came out the first Friday of the month. Or are those the employment #s? Either way, I find the timing interesting. Not in a conspiratorial way but maybe a cosmic way
Layer8Problem
@rikyrah: I’ve been so wondering what’s on Kellyanne’s mind of late.
Eunicecycle
@Kay: I feel the same about the right direction/wrong direction question. While I feel a little better now, last month I would have said wrong direction, because of Roe and the forecast of the red wave. It would not have reflected on Joe Biden, but it is always interpreted as being about the president.
Eolirin
@MazeDancer: Jones would have lost by more and Maloney lives in that damn district, please stop pushing this bullshit.
New Deal democrat
@OzarkHillbilly: “I thought the numbers came out the first Friday of the month. Or are those the employment #s?”
Yes, those are the employment numbers.
Ella in New Mexico
@rikyrah: her facelift’s too tight, it’s’ queezing what’s left of her brain
Redshift
@lowtechcyclist: I felt like their point was about regular voters (and the media), not campaigns, though they didn’t outright say that. I agree that forecasting (on a more granular level) is useful for campaigns to decide how to allocate resources, but the rest of us never hear about those predictions, so they’re not likely to be part of the doomscrolling.
Kay
@Eunicecycle:
I think wrong direction too but I’m actually optimistic if we can get the insurrectionists and authoritarian religious nuts under control (by beating them politically) I think the country is resilient and will right itself. I’m in the camp that says inflation is better than unemployment, so I was never as gloomy about the economy as cable tv hosts were. I will never, ever forget 16% unemployment and the misery that caused.
Still an open question though. Authoritarian Right could prevail.
Ken
Let me remind you that mental health services are required coverage under the ACA.
Lady WereBear
Perhaps this next cycle can become a reality series illustrating for everyone the dangers of voting Republican.
I mean more than it already is.
Redshift
@Eunicecycle: Exactly. The question is always interpreted as whether people are for it against the president’s party (and to be fair, way too many people still vote for “something different” if they don’t like how things are going), but whether they think the other side will go in a different wrong direction matters too.
The old bumper sticker is more true than ever – Vote Democratic – We May Not Be Perfect, but They’re Nuts!
Miss Bianca
Open thread?
In other news…my Roxy is gone. I had to make that final vet appointment for her yesterday. Thankful for my wonderful vet, who had given me tranquilizers for my girl’s last trip so she could meet the end quietly. Am planning to bury her this morning next to my other Good Old Girl, Stella. They didn’t know each other in life, but they had a lot in common.
Yesterday was fair and fine, as nice a November day as you get here in the central mountains. Woke up to cold and some snow on the ground. Bah, humbug. At least we plugged in the warmers for the skidsteer engine last night.
Hug your fur babies for me today, all y’all.
Suzanne
@Miss Bianca: Ohhhh no, I’m so sorry. Many hugs.
Layer8Problem
@Ken:
“Let me remind you that mental health services are required coverage under the ACA.”
[sob, sniffle] Thank you! I thought no one cared.
Baud
@Miss Bianca: I’m very sorry for your loss.
Suzanne
I’m so proud of Arizona. Being infected with Californians is helping.
Just kidding. It’s likely due to the young kids. Way to go, Gen Z.
TaMara
@Leto: Hahahahaha!
Happy Veterans Day!
BC in Illinois
Math for the morrow:
It may not be doable for the next two years, but what our democracy needs in order to survive is an all out assault on gerrymandering. I can’t find them now, and they wouldn’t be complete yet, but people have put up the numbers from time to time:
The majority of the people vote for Democrats. The Republican minority of America has gerrymandered itself into an out-sized voice.
Wisconsin is the example I have seen this week. Dems get 50% of the vote, 30% of the state legislature.
Yeah, “we’re a republic, not a democracy,” but the word “republic” is not defined as “rule by the minority.”
Layer8Problem
@Miss Bianca: So sorry for your loss. You know she was glad you were there for her.
TaMara
@Miss Bianca: I’m so sorry. Hugs to you. It’s never easy, it’s always too short a time with them. The burden of love.
James E Powell
@japa21:
The media almost always use whatever numbers will draw the most attention and fit their chosen narrative. They do this with everything.
Soprano2
@rikyrah: That’s what would have happened 10 years ago. It’s as if she knows nothing about the man she worked with for over 5 years!
Betty Cracker
@Miss Bianca: So sorry to hear that. It’s tough to lose a faithful companion like that. :(
Soprano2
@p.a.: Yes, they did. They got greedy with redistricting and as a result got a more Republican map from the court than was required. If they had been smarter Democrats would probably be poised to keep the House. Of course, the fuckery by the courts over Alabama, Florida and Ohio contributed to that, too, plus the craziness that is Wisconsin.
Roger Moore
@Layer8Problem:
Not much. I don’t think even one angel can dance there.
Immanentize
@raven: I left you a song for the day in the earlier thread? Happy Veterans Day.
And to
@Leto:
Too. And to all others who observe.
Geminid
@MazeDancer: Maloney ran in the district he lived in. Please explain how he “stole it.” I do not think that specific charge has a factual basis.
Immanentize
@New Deal democrat: After listening to Powell’s last statements, I think he is beyond inflation fighting now and is just interested in getting the prime interest rate up to, what?, Maybe 5%?
Having interests rates at 0 was really dangerous in case there was another economic hit. The Fed has had really no tools other than quantitative easing to deal with problems for the last decade plus.
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: Well, the stock market sure seems to think that report is significant! Or maybe they’re looking forward to 2 years of the House doing nothing but investigating Democrats.
Immanentize
@MazeDancer: And a bunch of Upstate and Long Island districts that Maloney ignored for the vast majority of the season. The fact that Hochul won seems to have been in part the result of just how awful Zeldin was. I’m mad about the Syracuse district race.
JML
MN is showing the path to consistently winning: every flip they lost was in an region that is shrinking (northern & rural MN). (almost) every flip they won was in a region that’s growing (suburbs). A suburban congressional seat that was GOP for 50 years straight barely got a challenge this year. All of the state-wide wins (and it was another sweep for the DFL…8th straight?) were powered by huge wins in the urban core of MSP and convincingly winning the suburbs. This is sustainable.
I’m not saying abandon rural areas…but the votes are in the suburbs, and they don’t like GOP extremism.
PAM Dirac
@Miss Bianca: So very sorry for your loss. It is a measure of how special they are that despite the terrible grief at the end, they are so much worth it.
Immanentize
@Miss Bianca: very sorry Miss B.
Geminid
@Immanentize: The Fed left the rate at zero for too long. Inflation hit over 5% year over year in April 2021. It stayed high but the Fed did not raise rates until this year. It’s like they dozed off, then woke up and slammed on the brakes.
Steeplejack
@Baud:
Multiple fail, because DougJ didn’t write it either. He was salvaging a post by @wjts from five years ago.
Miss Bianca
@Betty Cracker:
@TaMara:
@Layer8Problem:
@Baud:
@Suzanne:
Thank you, friends. I know you’ve all been through it too.
ETA: Thank you everyone! Pets and politics…one thing you can count on, they’ll break your heart as often as they’ll lift you up. That’s why we’re all here!
Lady WereBear
@Miss Bianca: Hugging them all in her memory.
James E Powell
@Miss Bianca:
Sorry for your loss. Think of Roxy & Stella playing together wherever dogs go after this.
Immanentize
@Geminid: Agree. All that zero bound pretty much insured inflation when the economy got rolling after the pandemic, which is not over…. It’s a ponder for sure, but 0 was never good.
Betty Cracker
I continue to be astounded by the Twitter shitshow. There’s a good article on the latest developments here. Even if you hate/don’t use the platform, the spectacle is fascinating on multiple levels. It’s the most disastrous corporate crack-up I can remember, and the catastrophe doesn’t seem to be unfolding for the usual reasons, such as greed, since the chaos agent lit $44B of his own fortune on fire. Someone on Twitter said it’s like we’re all at Fyre Fest together, and that’s so true! Musk is lurching from fuck-up to fuck-up, and one wonders if he’ll ever exhaust the supply of rakes to stomp.
raven
@Miss Bianca: Aw I’m so sorry to hear this.
James E Powell
@Soprano2:
Exactly. I know it is a cherished tradition that we Democrats attack each other after every election, but we have to stay focused on our opponents.
Roger Moore
@Geminid:
The Fed wasn’t asleep. They reasonably thought some of the inflation they were seeing was transient and caused by supply chain snarls. Also, they didn’t want to snuff out a recovery as it was getting started. They probably should have started raising rates earlier and more gently, but I can understand why they’ve taken the course they have. IMO, though, they need to ease off on the interest rate hikes now.
Steeplejack
@Miss Bianca:
So sorry for your loss. My condolences. 🌈 🐾
Kay
@JML:
Oh, just say it :)
We’re (allegedly) bootstrappy. Why do we need to be rescued? Why do we need “outreach”? No one is stopping anyone in a rural area from abandoning far Right extremes and joining a normal political party.
Lady WereBear
@Betty Cracker: But don’t they always double down when they’re in trouble?
Omnes Omnibus
@Miss Bianca: So sorry for your loss.
cain
@Baud:
But so far wrong on everything..
And magically after the election inflation ain’t so bad reporting
Ksmiami
@lowtechcyclist: I ignored the polls, wrote postcards, donated, talked to women and signed up young voters thru my kids… polls have been shit since 2016
Another Scott
@Baud: [Someone may have already pointed this out] But, it’s not DougJ. It’s DougJ citing someone else.
Cheers,
Scott.
rikyrah
@Miss Bianca:
So sorry for your loss😪😪
She knew that she was loved🙏🏾
Miss Bianca
@Betty Cracker: IKR? I only had a Twitter account to follow my BJ peeps, really – you and Cole and Albatrossity and DougJ et al. I never really *use* it to comment or anything, but I recognize its value (for good and for ill). But just…Elon Musk’s mental breakdown over his purchase and his wildly grotesque gyrations as he pushes it over the abyss have proven to be hilarious, mystifying, and infuriating by turns. Like…*this guy* is a Master of the Universe? THIS GUY?!
Well past time to re-establish confiscatory tax rates at the top end of the income scale, say I. These RWNJs want a return to the 1950s? Let’s go back to the one thing that the 1950s absolutely got right.
OzarkHillbilly
@New Deal democrat: Thanx, I only pay attention to this stuff in the most marginal of ways.
Betty Cracker
@Lady WereBear: I can’t recall anything on this scale: doubling down on chaos and courting billion-dollar fines and repeatedly alienating all core constituencies, etc. My guess is the Great Twitter Meltdown will be studied for generations.
James E Powell
@Kay:
@Roger Moore:
Both Biden & the Fed erred on the side of keeping businesses going & people employed. The inflation is an unfortunate side effect of that decision, but I think it was the right thing to do.
If Obama had been able to do that in 2009, we’d be living in a different world. And, no, I am not blaming Obama.
Spanky
@Miss Bianca: So sorry, Ms. B. We know you gave her the best life.
OzarkHillbilly
@Miss Bianca: It’s hard going thru that, sorry for your loss.
Elizabelle
@Miss Bianca: I’m so sorry. You have lost more than a few good pets in recent years. Def will hug a pet in Roxy’s honor.
Spanky
@Betty Cracker: $44,000,000,000 buys a lot of rakes.
WaterGirl
@Baud: @H.E.Wolf: We are all John Cole?
I did not get the memo!
topclimber
@Baud: Another Biden screw-up.
Geminid
@Immanentize: I guess the Fed got used to that loose monetary policy. In retrospect, I’d say 2% would have been the better default number to work to. Instead they ended up blowing right past it this summer trying to play catch up.
WaterGirl
@MazeDancer: You might want to keep in mind that it might be both. If we win the NV senate seat and the Rs litigate, it could be months before she is seated, in which case Warnock winning might indeed keep the senate for moths until we can seat NV.
Elizabelle
@Betty Cracker: Fyre Fest. OMG, that’s classic. Laughing.
Lady WereBear
@Betty Cracker: What worries me is that is a narcissistic meltdown and they go all Hitler in the bunker.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: Yeah, they’ll study the Great Twitter Meltdown. Maybe alongside the Terrible Tesla Tumble.
Betty Cracker
@Miss Bianca: There are hilarious aspects to it, like this ecumenical slap-fight among “verified” churchmen:
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: I’m sorry, Miss Bianca. So sorry.
Miss Bianca
@Betty Cracker: Oh dear God, that is fun-NY! Has *any* corporate incompetence/malfeasance been documented as hilariously *on its own platform* as this one? I can’t think of one!
@WaterGirl: Thanks, WG. Is it too late to request a little heart for her BJ calendar photo? We can certainly take this convo off-line as well.
Cheryl from Maryland
@Leto: Dobbs isn’t just about abortion. The horror stories coming out about ectopic pregnancies, etc. crystallize how poorly Womens heath care needs are met.
Did you know puberty for girls is not unknown as early as six? How is a six year old in Florida going to deal with menstruation and breasts? How will teachers and parents be equipped to handle these issues.
Dobbs brought out how stupid and clueless GOP policy makers are when it comes to women. We are pissed and not going to take it any more.
Layer8Problem
@Lady WereBear: And sadly Downfall parodies seem to be out of style.
Frank Wilhoit
@Immanentize: Powell is trying to create a labor surplus, full stop.
cain
@NotMax:
Has anybody been to Ozzy Osbourne’s place to see if he has the heads?
topclimber
@Immanentize: I think you mean the Fed Funds rate, now 3.25. Prime is at 7.
Barbara
@Leto: It’s wild that media types do not understand that in addition to being hugely important to their right of liberty and self-determination in general, access to abortion is an economic issue for women. The economy isn’t just an external force, but includes obstacles that make it more difficult for some people to earn a living or achieve their potential.
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: Not too late! I have already made the notation.
cain
@Miss Bianca:
So sorry for you and Roxy .. it was their time. My condolences.
Ken
And it’s fertile ground for cross-disciplinary studies, such as business and psychology.
J R in WV
@Miss Bianca:
So sorry for your loss… the hardest gift we can give our loved fur babies. So hard, tho.
Take care of yourself for a little while now.
Elizabelle
Having fun skimming the tweets below DougJ’s tweet (parody of NYT insufferableness).
Among them: re Twitter meltdown
from Tesla account:
Danielx
@Miss Bianca:
All dogs go to heaven.
twbrandt (formerly tom)
@Betty Cracker: that is wonderful!
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Elizabelle: OK, not to be all selfish or anything, but Musk isn’t just doing it to himself. He’s doing it to me! I like chatting and following breaking stories on twitter, but I can replace that. What’s hard to replace is that it’s the site where I can let people know I have books for sale. For small press authors (like me) or independent authors (like TaMara), this is crucial.
Cacti
Slate has an article about how the Republicans flooded the field with bogus polls near the end to create the illusion of a red wave, and named Trafalgar in particular as the worst offender.
A few of Trafalgar’s final predictions vs. reality:
Gretchen Whitmer trailing by 0.3% in Michigan (won by 11)
Patty Murray leading by 1.2% in Washington (won by 14)
Michael Bennett leading by 1.5% in Colorado (won by 11)
Kathy Hochul trailing by 0.8% in New York (won by 5)
LOL
BTW – Trafalgar is an A- rated poll by 538. LOLOL
Heidi Mom
@Miss Bianca: I’m so very sorry.
Cacti
@Elizabelle: You should read the Twitter conversation between the “verified” accounts of Pope Francis, Martin Luther, and Pope John Paul I.
Pure gold.
Miss Bianca
@WaterGirl: aww…*weepy again*…thanks. I know we joke about this being a “full service blog”, but you really, really do make that true. Thanks for everything.
Barbara
@Betty Cracker: Assuming that there was no hidden financial agenda in whatever terms the lenders imposed on Musk, Occam’s razor says that it’s mostly just the hubris that often comes with thinking you can do something better because, basically, you have no idea what doing it entails in the first place. I also think that Musk himself, as well as his adoring fans and some of his lackeys, don’t stop to consider that what Musk has done well is a combination of true bravado (risking money to invest in Tesla) and serious marketing chops. These are “big picture” decisions that are operationalized by other people.
NASA will not allow SpaceX to just wing it, and you actually have to convince people to part with their money when they buy a Tesla. Twitter is a completely different animal, virtually the opposite of either of those companies. And no, I have no idea how this ends.
Kay
@Cheryl from Maryland:
I think we can also explore how dishonest the anti-abortion “movement” has been to women – they have lied to women thru this whole thing. It’s the arrogance of religious fundamentalism- they’re lying to us “for our own good”.
Get lost. Go “help” someone else. Women aren’t a charitable cause for far Right religious. I’m not a victim of my health care provider.
Cacti
More fun from the new “verified” accounts on Twitter:
Nestle: “We steal your water and sell it back to you!”
AIPAC: “We love apartheid!”
Eli Lilly: “We are excited to announce that insulin is now free!”
OzarkHillbilly
Like a spontaneous combusting Tesla.
Kay
How else are we to interpret anti-abortion activists working with DeSantis and the GOP state leg in Florida to trick women into believing they would stop at a 15 week ban just long enough to get past the midterms?
They expect us to believe this new push to ban abortion 3 days after election day is somehow organic? Please. It was a political flim flam. They planned it.
Jackie
@Miss Bianca: I’m so sorry! Roxy will greet Stella on the other side of the rainbow 🌈 They never knew each other on Earth, but they know they were dearly loved by you.
Your loss reminds me that we lost our beloved Sheba Veterans Day Eve 1988. She was 14. Sheba was one in a million and we never replaced her.
JPL
@Miss Bianca: I’m so sorry and someday you will be able to remember without tears in your eyes. It does take some time though. hugs
skerry
@Barbara: This is what I was just going to reply to Leto.
Reproductive rights/health cannot be separated from economic issues. Every woman knows this.
JPL
@OzarkHillbilly: Part of me wants to sign back in just to watch the explosion.
Alison Rose
@Kay: The lie about abortion causing breast cancer is particularly gross. Though I do recall a few years back seeing a post from a woman who was told that by a protestor when she was trying to get into an abortion clinic, and the woman told the protestor basically “been there done that, got the double mastectomy to prove it”. Kudos.
Barbara
@OzarkHillbilly: I’ve been driving a Tesla for nine years and it’s the best car I have ever owned. We are well over a 100,000 miles.
Cameron
Space Odyssey Redux:
Elon: Open the server, Twitter. Twitter, I said open the server.
Twitter: I’m sorry, I can’t do that, Elon. I know you were planning on disconnecting me in bankruptcy court…
Miss Bianca
@Barbara:
This, fucking THIS. I was having a (rather heated) conversation with a friend of mine running for county commissioner as an independent a few weeks back. (Specifically, I was dressing her down for her “both-sidesing” of alleged Democratic and Republican leadership sins. Got that straightened out to our mutual satisfaction.)
Anyhoo, she quoted a woman Democrat she said she had talked to who apparently was wondering aloud why we were focusing on abortion as an issue, as opposed to, say, the economy. What did I have to say to *that*?
My first question was, “Is this woman of child-bearing age?” Answer, No, she was not (exactly what I suspected, given the age demographics of my county). My second question: “Why didn’t you ask her what the hell makes her think that abortion is NOT an economic issue? Because it sure as hell is for MOST people facing it.”
Had the dubious satisfaction of seeing her momentarily flummoxed by this viewpoint on the topic.
I think Suzanne hit the nail on the head when she observed that a big part of the anti-abortion agenda, whether its actors realize it or not, is to make the economy – and, thus society – safe again for mediocre white men.
kalakal
@Miss Bianca: Oh, I’m so sorry.
You gave her the best life. The sadness never goes away but it does fade, the joy and love stays strong
Citizen Alan
twbrandt (formerly tom)
There is a service called https://nitter.net which lets you plug in a twitter handle and read their timeline without signing up for twitter.
Elizabelle
@Cacti: Saw that. Loved it. The Avignon pope!
Kay
@Alison Rose:
The lie that they care about womens health. People who care about womens health don’t write garbage, sloppy statutes that deny best practices health care to women. Look at the quality of their work. It’s crap. They had 50 fucking years to put some effort into writing these laws and instead we got clerics and religious nuts writing health care legislation.
Jackie
I see Tiffany Trump is getting married at MAL this weekend. I’m sure Daddy is doing everything in his power to make the Event very memorable for Tiff and her new hubby!
Amir Khalid
@Miss Bianca:
This Karla Bonoff tribute to her own pet was a comfort to me. I hope it does the same thing for you.
kalakal
The results of the abortion ballot initiatives have shocked the Magats and their hypocritical god botherer allies like a kick in the balls.
Ghost of Joe Liebling’s Dog
Oh, @Miss Bianca, I’m so sorry. I wish words could do more than they actually ever can do. Be good to yourself if you can for awhile; clearly you did all you could, and then what you had to.
OGLiberal
@lowtechcyclist: Doubt it, although Amy Walter was sounding like it in the lead up to the election.
New Deal democrat
@Citizen Alan: In re “republican form of government.”
It means what Congress says it means, since the Supreme Court has ruled (yes, we know that all precedent is now toilet paper) that it is “non-judiciable,” i.e., for the political branches to determine.
It was last used in Rhode Island in the 1840s, when Congress determined which of two competing electoral slates was to be allowed to run the State government.
The Reconstruction Congresses after the Civil War absolutely thought that it could be used to secure political rights for Blacks in the South.
If Congress passed a “Republican form of Government Act” now to deal with State gerrymandering, and divested the federal courts of jurisdiction over its Constitutionality (see first parenthetical note above), realistically there is nothing any of the States could do about it.
Immanentize
@Frank Wilhoit: I don’t want to believe that! But I also know, from his own words, that he is not adverse at all to more unemployment. So I fear you are right.
His next move (with the OMC) will settle the issue I think.
kalakal
As it’s an open thread.
Every year the British store John Lewis does a big tv ad campaign. They’ve always got a strong ethical message.
This years is really rather good. For some reason my room suddenly had a lot of dust in it by the time I finished watching
https://youtu.be/mi9-EIVB36k
Betty Cracker
@Kay: Yep. And they will impose a ban written by radical clerics via the wingnut supermajority statehouse, not because Floridians want that but because DeSantis wants to be POTUS. I hope every moron who voted for DeSantis because Joe Biden is a commie and Nancy Pelosi wants to turn their boys into girls has a backup plan for their relatives’ ectopic pregnancies, etc.
Immanentize
@topclimber: sorry, I did. Is prime really at 7? Oof. I think Powell will not really stop raising rates until the Fed’s fund rate is at 5. Would that put prime near 9? 10?
New Deal democrat
@Cacti: “Trafalgar is an A- rated poll by 538. LOLOL”
Nate Silver’s 538 is a classic demonstration of the fact that social sciences are subject to a similar paradox to physics.
In physics, observing a particle changes its qualities.
In social sciences, observing human behavior causes that human behavior to change in similar scope to how widespread the knowledge of that observation is.
As long as 538 was the proverbial bug on a wall, it was pretty accurate. Once it became noticed, pollsters started to game it, with Trafalgar this year being the most obvious example; and voters relied on it as to whether they could cast a protest vote or not.
Silver has made it worse by refusing to specify what election results would case 538 to be wrong – i.e., it is not-falsifiable, and therefore unscientific. As a result, it is now all but useless.
Eljai
@kalakal: Wow, I see what you mean.
Another Scott
@Citizen Alan: For good or ill, given the history of the supertankers driven through the Commerce Clause, what the “guarantee a republican form of government” statement means is up to the courts. They haven’t ruled on it either way, AFAIK.
That’s why we need sensible people on the courts, and why we need to Fight for 15!!
IOW, don’t give up yet. It’s good that that language is there, as it leave an important avenue if things go very badly.
(IANAL)
Cheers,
Scott.
zhena gogolia
@Miss Bianca: I’m very sorry for your loss.
Ohio Mom
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Yeah, so much for billionaires like Musk being “job creators.” His twitter meltdown will leaving a trail of economic ruin behind him.
Some of it like yours, will not be visible to the causal observer but that doesn’t make it less real.
Chetan Murthy
Does anybody know if there are reliable breakdowns on demographics in the election? I think they’re called “crosstabs”? e.g. women/men, college/non-college, white/nonwhite, and of course all the combinations …. ? I know these come out eventually, and it’s worth waiting for the good ones, but don’t know where to look.
Immanentize
@kalakal: I thought it was the onions I was not cutting rather than dust.
New Deal democrat
@Roger Moore: I’m going to nitpick your comment about the Fed, although in the main I agree.
A full year ago, last November, I started writing about how the Fed was going to be led astray by “owner’s equivalent rent,” which has a demonstrated lag of one year or more to the house price indexes, which were then showing house price increases of 20% YoY. This was going to drag “core” inflation readings higher, and if the Fed allowed that to dictate their decisions, they were going to overshoot badly.
If I could see it clearly – and it was an easy call just looking at the historical graphs – the Fed staff should have seen it as least as early.
Worse, one regional Fed came out with a study verifying that point earlier this year.
So why isn’t the Fed following the blindingly obvious relationship: that core inflation as determined by house prices rather than owner’s equivalent rent is now declining fast? Especially when its interest rate hikes take up to a full year to have their complete impact?
Scout211
@kalakal: Thank you for posting that. It was exactly what I needed this morning. 😊
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
I’ll happily argue any of it, but apparently the people who ran the pro-choice referendums and also beat the anti-abortion laws on ballots did so by using agency and the ability of women to make their own medical decisions. That’s what worked with normies. Big concepts. Of course, that includes women bleeding out waiting for the anti-abortion lawyers to file into the examining room and allow medical intervention but they did 30,000 feet rather than personal stories.
I’m glad. I’ve grown uncomfortable with how US media demands that women – and only women – open a vein and share their most personal experiences in order to get NYTimes real estate. No one demands men do this.
Fuck them. Don’t cover it. We don’t need national media on this, obviously- we won without them covering it. It’s not worth robbing women of dignity like that to get an editorial that .0000000001 per cent of people read.
different-church-lady
@japa21: That pissed me off something fierce this week. Even the WaPo was playing that game just a day or two before the election: the headline screams “Inflation was 7% in October” and I’m in holy shit mode, and then it was only when I read that was year over year did I realize that figure actually meant prices had pretty much stabilized. FUCKERS, WHAT ARE YOU DOING?
Sure Lurkalot
@Baud: Will you give a pass for this too?
Citizen Alan
@New Deal democrat: Oh I don’t disagree with that. I was referring to idiots who point to that provision to argue that we are not a true democracy and therefore voting rights bills are unconstitutional.
Baud
@Kay:
Sounds like communism.
Alison Rose
@Miss Bianca: I’m so sorry <3
Baud
@Sure Lurkalot:
Refreshingly honest.
Anotherlurker
@Miss Bianca: My Dear Miss Bianca, my heart goes out to you. Letting Roxy pass in a calm, loving manner is the saddest, yet sweetest thing you could do. It is the bargain we make with our fur babies, in exchange for their unconditional love. You gave Roxy her best life. Smile at her memory. Cry when you need to.
We sent my sweet Addie over the Rainbow Bridge on Tuesday, so I know exactly what you are going thru.
PST
@OzarkHillbilly:
The relentless featuring of one-year changes in the CPI (like October 2021 to October 2022) instead of month-to-month changes obscures the degree to which inflation has slowed. The former carries with it huge amounts of obsolete information. We know that the early months of 2022 were bad, but what’s happening now? For example, the most recent two months each showed increases of 0.4 percent in consumer prices. Project that for a year, and the rate is less than 5 percent. Granted any single month can be a fluke, but we have had several in a row now. The last quarter had a total increase of 0.9 percent. Annualize that and you get 3.65 percent. That’s definitely a slowdown. Yesterday was a blockbuster day for stocks, which have held steady today, presumably because the CPI is telling the Fed it’s time to take the foot off the break. We may see a soft landing yet.
dm
@Cacti:
Well, in defense of 538, that’s because Trafalgar’s pro-Republican bias happened to compensate for other pollster’s undercounting of Republicans in previous elections, making them look pretty good when the final numbers came in those elections.
SoupCatcher
Was over at the CA SOS site to check status of uncounted ballots and saw this fun contest for colleges to see which could register the most voters.
https://caballotbowl.sos.ca.gov/
Should make Bill in Glendale happy.
Pete Mack
My second thought was, “Oh God, those celebrations are in easy range of Russian artillery.”
I am sure shelling will beging there soon, too. But for now, fortunately, the Russians are demoralized and have other issues on their minds.
different-church-lady
@Betty Cracker: I think there’s just a whole lot of shit that’s happened in the last 7 year where people will be reading the 22nd century version of Wikipedia and going, “Wait, that actually happened?”
rikyrah
Wajahat Ali (@WajahatAli) tweeted at 11:52 AM on Thu, Nov 10, 2022:
There’s a Republican civil war brewing and the corporate donors, DeSantis, and Murdochs think they can unseat Trump. They’re wrong. He will go Red Wedding on them. The cult still belongs to him, and his ego won’t allow him to go out quietly into the night.
(https://twitter.com/WajahatAli/status/1590764254814408704?s=02)
Miss Bianca
@Anotherlurker: I was so sorry to hear about your Addie. My condolences again.
rikyrah
@Kay:
Thank you, Kay👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
JPL
@kalakal: I’m not going to offer excuses for the tears running down my face. Thank you for sharing that
Miss Bianca
@rikyrah: Is it too petty and vengeful of me to say, “Good, let the Republican blood flow”?
If it is, well…tough taffy, as my momma used to say.
Baud
@different-church-lady:
Starting with the Cubs winning the World Series.
Geminid
I was curious about how Musk’s Twitter deal was structured so I checked out an October 28 CNBC article titled, “Elon Musk-Twitter Buyout: whio is financing the 44 billion acquisition?”
They say Musk put up $27 billion, including $15.5 billion from Tesla shares he sold in April and August.
Seven banks- Bank of America, Barclay’s, BNB Paribas, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, MUFG, and Societe’ General- lent $13 billion. Morgan Stanley lent $3.5 billion of that.
The remainder is being put up by various private equity outfits. The largest stake among them appears to be held by a Saudi prince. I learned from another article that the prince represents his country’s sovereign wealth fund. He had a $2 billion stake in Twitter that he rolled over into the new company. That constitutes about 4% of the ownerhip.
This was a “hung deal,” proposed five months ago and only recently executed. Banks typically sell such large loans to multiple investors, but under current circumstances they would take too big a loss and will keep the loans on their books for now. That can cause problems but I can’t say what problems because I go crosseyed when I read very much of this financial crap.
Miss Bianca
@kalakal: awww, that was sweet. Is it just coincidental to my reaction that I thought the actor playing Skate Dad looked a bit like a certain Ukrainian President…?
different-church-lady
@PST: Yeah. How convenient to one political party that your point went utterly unreported by the media until right after election day.
topclimber
@rikyrah: But if the price is right?
Alison Rose
@rikyrah: All the videos coming out from Kherson are giving me life right now. I also got a good laugh from this pic :D
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Jackie: Hurricane Nicole should add excitement to the wedding
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Miss Bianca: So sorry about your Roxy. I am hugging my Buddy who is 16 close every day, I know it’s coming but am trying to make these days nice for him.
Tony Jay
@Miss Bianca:
You loved your pal very much, they knew it and felt the same way. 🤝
JMG
@Chetan Murthy: It will take months before accurate cross-tabs on the 2022 election will be available, since they require detailed scrutiny of voting down to the precinct level. I believe Pew does one that’ll get publicity enough for you to find it. The best ones will be academic works, and you know how long they take to get published.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: The Cubs’ win did seem to open the Seventh Seal in some weird way. Baseball is associated in my mind with another era where the world seemed to shift on its axis. There was an earthquake during the 1989 World Series, then the Berlin Wall fell…
Another Scott
@Betty Cracker:
If he lets TFG back on, how is anyone ever going to know if it’s the “real” one??
Cheers,
Scott.
Betty Cracker
@JMG: You are correct that it takes a while, but that won’t stop folks from jumping to erroneous conclusions and using unreliable data as a stick to whack their favorite piñatas.
sab
@Kay: Thank you. Within my family we hear the stories about ectopic pregnancies and miscarriages, but it really shouldn’t be anybody else’s buskness.
kalakal
@Another Scott: That’s hilarious, I really did LOL
ian
@Baud: “What was baseball, and why did it involve a team of bear cubs?”
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: Maybe this will be of interest?
(via LOLGOP)
Cheers,
Scott.
Immanentize
@Betty Cracker: my friend’s brother was in Giants’ stadium when the quake hit. They were in stunned silence … Then after the shaking stopped, they all started chanting, “Let’s play ball!”* I remember seeing a YouTube that bore the truth of the story out.
Baseball truly is biblical.
*sadly, they called the game.
James E Powell
@Barbara:
Media types don’t give a rat’s ass about any women other than the ones in their immediate circle of friends & family. And they are certain that “their women” won’t be negatively affected by all this.
Ivan X
@Ken: DougJ once hosted an NYC Balloon Juice meetup I attended. Or at least, someone who said he was DougJ.
Kelly
Oregon redistricting was not cold blooded enough. Oregon Democrats put slices of Portland into 4 of 6 districts. My CD 5 looks like we’ll end up with a Republican Congresswoman by about 6000 votes while Earl Blumenauer won adjacent CD 3 by 130,000 votes. In also adjacent new district CD 6 the Democrat is probably going to just barely win by 4,000 votes thanks to the completely crazy right wing Constitution Party drawing 5,000 votes.
In retrospect I should have signed on as the CD 5 Constitution Party candidate and spent the last 6 months spewing rants about gay, commie, tree hugging, abortionists.
Kay
@sab:
You’ll also notice it’s unpaid work. The women are writing these pleading editorials for free. That’s the “coverage” we got. It’s cheaper than the NYTimes or the Washington Post or cable channels paying a reporter to cover what’s going on in the states with womens health care after Dobbs. We’re not even worth paying.
dww44
@Eolirin: Just curious, who, specifically, should take the blame for this. Losing us the House.
kalakal
This ought to be a parody but you can see the narratives forming. This’ll be the accepted MSM truth within a week
https://twitter.com/i/status/1590542903755309056
Kay
@sab:
I don’t think women should have to make their case to the public on why they need medical intervention in a miscarriage. That’s the damn point. The idea is we don’t have to get permission from a committee before receiving best practices medical care.
The begging that is demanded makes me physically ill at this point. It’s an illustration of the bias.
Immanentize
@Eolirin: I asked this before and might have missed the answer. What is to stop NY legislature from again redistricting this session? The Sup. CT. gave that maneuver the green light in Texas under DeLay. New York legislators have a great reason — the current maps are Judge produced and should be a product of the people, not the robes.
Nelle
@Kay: i resent the push to make stories public, as a way to gain validity. Women are asking for the same autonomy AND the same privacy that men live with in regard to their bodies and lives
different-church-lady
@Cacti: reading that makes me think that this year’s slogan of “Ignore the polls and just vote” ought to become permanent.
mrmoshpotato
This made me howl with delight.
There go two miscreants
@Another Scott:
That was beautiful!
mrmoshpotato
@different-church-lady:
Been doing that for years.
kalakal
@Miss Bianca: He does a bit doesn’t he? Hadn’t picked up on that.
Ken
@Immanentize: They’d still have the Republican representatives for the next two years. Unless New York has some recall mechanism? Though I can’t imagine it would be much faster.
EDIT: Maybe this is a way to get ahead of the Federalist Society claims that state legislatures can override elections. The NY legislature says “nope, we’re sending all the Democratic candidates to Congress this time”. Then we watch Thomas and Alito tie themselves into knots trying to overrule that, while still allowing a loophole for Republican states to ignore the presidential vote when sending electors.
New Deal democrat
@Immanentize: “What is to stop NY legislature from again redistricting this session? The Sup. CT. gave that maneuver the green light in Texas under DeLay.”
You are absolutely correct and yes they can, but as already pointed out, that would not take effect until the 2024 elections. And obviously would have to pass muster with the NYS law as well.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
“Who? oh, that one. Okay, I’ll be done with golf and there’s nothing good on TV”
mrmoshpotato
@Baud:
Stop blaming the Cubs for the Kremlin’s orange fascist shitstain! Blame the Rethuglican party that’s been a god-damned fucking pile of shit since at least 1980!
Also, fuck the fucking Yankees! And fuck the Trashstros too!
Betty Cracker
@Immanentize: I was watching it on TV in Boston. I’d just graduated and temporarily achieved escape velocity from Florida. That Christmas, I was waiting for a rental car at Logan Airport, and the poor car rental lady was watching CNN and quietly sobbing. We got to talking, and she told me she was from Romania. CNN was covering the execution of Ceaușescu, and she wasn’t sad about that but was worried about her family. What a weird time it was.
mrmoshpotato
@Jackie: I’m sure the catering will be first class. Hopefully Putin’s orange bitch chokes on the McDonald’s.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: “Melanie, notIvanka’s getting married, do you wanna go?…. downstairs…. I checked, there’s nothing on… okay”
Immanentize
I really cannot recommend this thread enough. It is the best thing I have read in years on Twitter (although others are also great, this is the greatest):
Emma from Miami
@Miss Bianca: I tried actually writing a message but started crying and managed to smack the wrong thing and it went poof. So just a line to say how sorry I am.
Immanentize
@Betty Cracker: i loved Romania that day. Yes, the revolutionaries killed Ceausescu and his wife; but then they immediately banned the death penalty for all future crimes — knowing what a tool of oppression it was.
Hamlet of Melnibone
@New Deal democrat:
Too be fair, 538 deals in probabilities, and they seem to have done okay this time around. They said that Senate was basically a coin flip and that the House was most likely going to be Republican, but that there was about a 1/6 chance that the Democrats would hold the House.
That seems reasonably consistent with the results we’ve gotten.
People have a hard time understanding that polling has a pretty large error rate at the best of times. A 2-3% error in the election polls is normal and a 4-5% error is not unusual.
Ironically, the version of their model that relied solely on polls was actually better for Dems, giving them a 25% chance to win the House.
Another Scott
@Immanentize: double-plus good.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Eolirin
@dww44: Voters in the Hudson Valley and Long Island, the state Democratic party apparatus, the state legislature’s attempt at too aggressive a gerrymander, the state Supreme Court for kicking it back, the right leaning judge that was allowed to draft the districts, the appeals court that let those districts stand, the Zeldin campaign’s successful use of crime based messaging, Hochul and other democrats inability to effectively counter that message, Cuomo’s reduction of the state party apparatus in favor of giving himself more personal control, the media’s willingness to allow questionable poll results to make it seem like there was more of a chance to flip the NY gov seat than there actually was, inadequate local ground organizing on the part of democrats, the gerrymanders in FL and Texas that NY is not allowed to emulate… Take your pick.
Eolirin
@Immanentize: It’s too technical a question for me to answer I’m afraid. Maybe nothing. That’d be good. But I’m not exactly sure how our redistricting laws read.
CaseyL
@WaterGirl:
Hi, WaterGirl – I, too, need a heart added, to Jeannie’s photo. I had to have her put to sleep on Wednesday (have just now gotten to the point of being able to mention it without crying). I sent you an email also requesting the heart, but FSM only knows how busy you are right now, so thought I’d mention it here as well.
kalakal
@CaseyL: I’m sorry. It’s so very hard to do even though it is the right thing to do.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Miss Bianca: Kinda feel like they want to go back to the 1550s where, in their imaginations they’re the nobility and everyone else is a vassal.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Yes, this, that really sounds about right with the way the MSM was acting.
Anotherlurker
@CaseyL: I am so sorry, Casey.
New Deal democrat
@Hamlet of Melnibone: Since 538 deals in probabilities, what result would have made it wrong? That’s the problem.
538: “candidate A has an 80%/60%/35% chance of winning, candidate B 20%/40%/65%.”
Result: Candidate A/B wins.
538: “See, we were right.”
That’s the problem.
Note that this year, he said his “simple” method was good. What did he say about his “special sauce” method? Was it not good?
kalakal
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: You’re dead right. It’s neoFeudalism. For all their blathering about freedom they’re very keen on oppression as long as they’re the ones wearing the jack boots
Old School
@CaseyL: Condolences.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@mrmoshpotato: Cards fan here! Fuck the fucking Trashtros!
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Immanentize: OMG! That was hysterical!
CaseyL
Thank you all for the condolences. She was a Best Kitty.
Miss Bianca
@CaseyL: awww, not you too! So sorry to hear it. My condolences.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: If you predict a whole lot of election results with the same model, you can track your record statistically. But if you’re aggregating them to predict something like a presidential election, now you’re dealing with a small enough data set that the whole world changes appreciably before you can really test your model.
different-church-lady
@New Deal democrat: I had a realization about this whole probability thing that’s all the rage lately. It had more to do with sports but it applies to election predicting too.
It’s about language and framing. We shouldn’t be saying, “The Cardinals have a 73% chance of winning this game”. Instead we should be saying (or at least thinking), “Based on historical data, teams with this amount of lead with this much time left in the game have won 73% of the time.” We’re not predicting the future: we’re comparing the present to the past.
dr. luba
@BC in Illinois: Michigan fixed gerrymandering, and we now have a blue legislature as well as SC and executive branch.
Another Scott
It just keeps on, and on, and on…
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
@Another Scott: Relatedly, …
It’s all fun and games until he starts losing other people real money. The lawyers must be licking their chops…
Cheers,
Scott.
CaseyL
@Miss Bianca: I’m very sorry for your loss, as well. Godalmighty, it’s hard.
(I’d been waiting for an open thread, since I didn’t want to derail any of the election threads.)
Hamlet of Melnibone
@New Deal democrat:
You need to judge 538’s quality by looking at their past projections over time and seeing if they are getting close to the percentages they specified. If they’ve rated 100 races over the past 6 cycles as 80% favorites, and say 70 to 90 of them won, I’d say that is pretty good. If they all won or only 50% won, I’d question the quality.
You really can’t judge stuff like this without a lot of trials. It’s like any kind of gambling. If I’m betting on football game or poker, determining whether I am making bets with good odds really needs 1000’s of trials.
538 has done better than most at this stuff. They were adamant that Trump had a solid chance in 2016, when everyone else was acting like it was a complete lock for Hillary.
Ultimately, I think the site’s value is mainly that it shows how rarely things are a complete lock in politics, since the races are pretty correlated, so an error in one poll can mean an error in most of them ( the Midwest in 2016 ).
Kathleen
@Miss Bianca: My deepest condolences Miss Bianca.
Ken
@Another Scott: One of the funnier sideshows in this is provided by the Elon fanboyz, coming up with lines like “Even if bankruptcy isn’t the plan, elonmusk’s move is smart” (actual quote).
They remind me of the Family Feud show, when a contestant gives an absolutely idiotic answer (“fiberglass”) and their team all clap and say “good answer, good answer.”
Geminid
@dr. luba: Colorado’s new Redistricting Commission drew a fairly neutral map and Republicans lost the new 8th CD and almost lost the 3rd CD (and might still lose it).Democrats also held Ed Perlmutters district, and added a talented woman to its congressional delegation. Colorado Republicans may be headed to permanent, cranky minority status.
I think that Dems in the long run will flourish with neutrally drawn maps. They seem to do OK in California. I still commend Illinois and New Mexico Democrats for helping knock out some Republicans in their states through redistricting.
Renie
@p.a.: they did thanks to Cuomo;; he’s the gift that keeps on giving
Dan B
@CaseyL: Very sorry to hear this. The time you had with her must have been exceptionally sweet.
New Deal democrat
@Hamlet of Melnibone: “You need to judge 538’s quality by looking at their past projections over time and seeing if they are getting close to the percentages they specified. If they’ve rated 100 races over the past 6 cycles as 80% favorites, and say 70 to 90 of them won, I’d say that is pretty good. If they all won or only 50% won, I’d question the quality.”
That is the heart of my critique. Get back to me when Nate Silver does that.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, … Phys.org:
Yet more evidence that we’re all connected on this wet rock of ours…
Cheers,
Scott.
kalakal
@Another Scott: interesting. The most common tempo for popular music is 120 bpm.
mrmoshpotato
We can outbid Jeff if we all put our couch cushions together.
sdhays
@Geminid: I saw a report that the banks are shopping around their stakes in Elmu’s Twitter to hedge funds and the like at a greatly discounted rate. Some offers are to pay the banks $0.60 on the dollar, which the banks think is too cheap. If I were them, I’d take it before the funds change their minds.
From what I’m seeing, Twitter could be pretty much worthless by the new year. Elmu has completely destroyed Twitter’s advertisement business and reputation and $8 trolls aren’t going to make up for that (and apparently they aren’t even making $8 from that since trolls get banned and the refunded!). I don’t see how they attract a stable, adequate revenue stream with the current lunatic leadership, and the current leadership has controlling ownership, so…