Update on Sunday at 4:30 pm: We did it! We reached our goal of $35,000 for Four Directions to jump start their activities on the ground in Georgia, starting on Monday! You guys are amazing, especially the Balloon Juice angels!
We’ll take a rest for a day or two and then we will start raising money for more boots on the ground in GA, this time for the Worker Power group that we supported for AZ just a small number of weeks ago!
It will likely be a few days before the NV Senate race is called, but it’s nice to breathe a sigh of relief in the meantime, knowing that things look really good for a win for us.
For those who want to donate directly to Rev. Warnock for the runoff, there’s a thermometer in the sidebar for that, too, but it doesn’t count toward the match.
We are doing an awesome job of raising the money that will allow Four Directions to hit the ground running first thing on Monday. There are about 145,000 Native Americans in GA, not all registered to vote of course, and the bastards in GA made sure to shorten the runoff period to ensure that it was short enough that no new voters could be registered. Bastards!
Still, they registered a lot of Native people for the runoff in 2020, so there is that.
They will be working with the tribes, knocking doors and making calls and leaving packets at doors in Indian Country, and as always, they are the only group that is getting out the Native vote.
Announcing two special angel matches!
The first angel match will double-match donations up to $25, until reach $500 total. In order to be matched, you have to list your donation in the comments!
The other angel match will be a single match of $3,500 for the high rollers :-) now matching up to $250 per person, with donations listed in the comments.
These will run at the same time until we hit the $500 total for the up to $25 double-angel matches. Then the $3,500 angel match will run until we reach $3,500 on that one.
So much to celebrate!
They don’t look happy.
Do we think she can’t even bear to look at them?
I can hardly blame her. After they have spent years inciting violence against Dems, and demonizing Nancy SMASH in particular – which I believe led to the vicious attack on her husband, Paul – I imagine she wants to punch them both in the face.
Let’s take a moment to savor this headline, shall we?
Congressional Republicans panic as they watch their lead dwindle:
Private consternation reached a public boiling point Friday as lawmakers in both chambers confronted the fallout from Tuesday’s elections
Open thread.
WaterGirl
Reminder: postcard writing party and music thread at 8pm Eastern tonight.
WaterGirl
WaterGirl
PaulB
Ralston has corrected that last number: “If she wins, 50-45, she will be *UP* 250 votes.”
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1591527830738718720
WaterGirl
Remember: In order to be matched, list your donation in the comments!
la caterina
In for $250, just so I can call myself a high roller! I have postcards and stamps for tonight. Who do I email for addresses?
dmkingto
$100 sent yesterday
WaterGirl
@la caterina: thank you!
For addresses, you have the choice of Postcards to Voters or Postcards Patriots, which is the one MazeDancer runs.
Postcards to voters – you write what they give you to write.
Postcard Patriots – you work out your own wording I believe.
Which one sounds best to you?
WaterGirl
@dmkingto: thank you!
Trapped Lurker
In for $25.00. And thank you, Watergirl, for all you do! It’s nice to know the donation isn’t going to a black hole or to grift!
WaterGirl
@Trapped Lurker: You are the first person for this double-angel match!
Your $25 turned into $75!
suilebhan
In for $50. Thanks for your work, WaterGirl.
la caterina
@WaterGirl: Thanks. I emailed MazeDancer.
WaterGirl
@suilebhan: Okay, yours goes to the second match! That’s $100!
thank you
Wolvesvalley
Just put in $50 for Four Directions.
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl: As a follow up, to join #PostcardsToVoters, either text JOIN to 484-275-2229 or email [email protected].
A volunteer will give you the writing instructions and have you write out a postcard and send them a photo to check for your ability to follow their directions.
If all looks good (and it should!), they’ll send you as many addresses as you want – 4-50 at a time. I usually do 5-10 at a time.
For more addresses, you can either do more emails or use Abby the Address Bot. (she’s on Slack, Facebook, and via text message)
I’ll try to keep an eye on this thread for more questions, but I’ve got 2 little kiddos who sometimes are demanding of my free time. 😊
ETA – #PostcardsToVoters FAQ is also pretty helpful. https://postcardstovoters.org/faq/
Chat Noir
In for $35. Thank you to everybody who has made a positive difference for democracy this week.
WaterGirl
@Wolvesvalley Thank you!
Yours goes to the second match, so that’ $100 for Warnock.
HinTN
@WaterGirl: Mazedancer has said we’re waiting on the designs until we know where we’re at with the Senate. That might take a while. Can you push for designs now, please. I have to go to Office Max to get them printed (stupid old inkjet printer) and I’d like to get started.
WaterGirl
@Chat Noir: Thank you! Yours goes to the second match, and your $35 just turned into $70!
delphinium
In for $25.
NimmoENull
In for 50
Mousebumples
@HinTN: I did a quick search for postcard designs to download and print and I see a few options that could work on these 4 links – (hopefully WaterGirl can dig me out of moderation if I’m exceeding the link limit) –
http://designcrushblog.com/2017/02/20/print-write-mail-printable-resistance-postcards/ – We are the change we still, red/white/blue decor, and the sun jumped out at me
http://www.postcardsfromthepeople.com/ – We vote we win, Georgia on our mind
https://www.loveletteramerica.com/ – more artsy ones to pick from
http://postcardstovoters.org/templates/ – #PostcardsToVoters templates (some may be less relevant)
I figure anything that’s generally “yay voting!” is good. Waiting for Maze Dancer is fine, too, but I don’t want you to delay postcarding in the short term either!
Auntie Anne
$10 from me
WaterGirl
@delphinium: You get the double match! Your $25 turned into $75.
WaterGirl
@NimmoENull: Thank you! That’s $100 for the Warnock runoff.
Heidi Mom
In for $25.
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples: @HinTN:
With the short timeframe for the runoff, it would be a shame to waste a single day waiting for the new designs.
Just don’t have so many of the stock cards printed that you can’t take advantage of MazeDancer’s beautiful designs once they are available.
My two cents.
WaterGirl
@Heidi Mom: thank you.
You get the double match! Your $25 turned into $75.
H.E.Wolf
I like the PostcardsToVoters.org “writing points” for the Warnock runoff – two choices, each 3 sentences long.
I picked the shorter set, which was fortunate: my fountain pen went 9 rounds with me this AM, and it won. (I can understand how I got ink on all 10 fingers… but my jawline? come on!)
James E Powell
In for $50.
Martin
Early day CA update. Maybe the only one because I don’t know which counties are working on a Saturday (probably some since we got some data yesterday, but not all.)
CA-03: – 6.0 [* ] (open seat)
CA-09: +12.6 [* ] (D incumbent)
CA-13: – 0.2 [+0.2] (open seat)
CA-21: + 9.2 [-1.0] (D incumbent)
CA-22: – 5.0 [+3.4] (R incumbent)
CA-27: -12.0 [* ] (R incumbent)
CA-41: – 1.2 [-0.2] (R incumbent)
CA-45: – 8.0 [+1.0] (R incumbent)
CA-47: + 2.4 [* ] (D incumbent)
CA-49: + 4.2 [+0.8] (D incumbent)
CA-03 now looks to me to be out of reach based on where remaining votes are (this district spans 10 counties). Mono and Nevada counties are good for D, but there’s not a lot of vote left there. Sacramento is the bulk of it, and it’s been slightly R favored there. That *could* shift D in late mail, but none of that is yet visible to me, so until more count comes in and we see evidence of this potential, my guess is D either don’t make headway or don’t make enough headway. Still not called, but this looks like a low odds D recovery. Our contributors in the comment section on the ground sense is this should go to the R.
CA-09 is spread over 3 counties. San Juaquin is the D base, with Contra Costa and Stanislaus tending to be R, but San Juaquin is where most of the district is, so this should be fine. There’s only maybe half the vote in and it’s been slow to show up, so this looks pretty likely D, we just need to get over the 50% mark so the runway for a reversal goes away.
CA-13 is spread over 5 counties (are we detecting a trend why these races are hard to call?) Merced and Stanislaw are where most of the vote is and they’re slightly D favored. This is one that remaing vote could favor D and swing this over the line for team D. The last update shows this slight D favor.
CA-21 is only 2 counties! Fresno is the dominant vote and favors D. Tulare is a smaller share and favors R. There’s more outstanding share (as a fraction of total votes already in) in Tulare, so that’s why you’re seeing late mail breaking my theory and favoring R over D. This will be close but my back of napkin is that D should squeak by.
CA-22 is 3 counties. About half in Kern and half spread across Kings and Tulare. Kern is D favored, and the others R favored. There’s almost no vote left in Kings (small counties can finish up faster) and a lot lefe in Kern (at least there was before the 3.4 gain for the D – the vote data and the uncounted data are out of phase so I get one updated but not the other and then need to speculate what’s happeing with the other.) So we got a big chunk taken out of the R lead here. Even though D is behind, depending on what’s left and how representative what’s been counted is of what’s left (USPS mail vs vote center/ballot box) the window of a D win hasn’t closed here. We’ll see. That 3.4 point gain is more than I was expecting (I think it’s 2 days worth of vote count) so keep an eye on this one.
CA-27 is entirely LA county. Dems have been gaining in late mail, but so far not at the pace needed. That could change, but unless the county has been counting predominantly red drop box/vote center ahead of USPS and blue drop box/vote center (possible) then there aren’t enough outstanding ballots to get there. The weakness of late mail to early mail for D partisanship looks pretty comparable to what I’m seeing in OC, so I think this one is a longshot.
CA-41 is entirely in Riverside county. This is another one that breaks the theory with R gain in late mail. That could be the nature of the district, or it could be a late mail count that is not representative of the rest of the late mail. I’m not sure why early mail was *so* strongly in favor of the D and then swung so hard post election day. My guess is that a lot of same-day machine didn’t get counted entirely on election day and some of that spilled over until after and so the cadence of partisan shift didn’t match other places. Keeping my eye on this. I respect the on the ground sense from our contributors that this should be an R win, but I need more data to get there. So far, I’m not sold. I think it’ll be close either way.
CA-45 is split between LA and OC, but it’s 90% OC. OC has been going about 0.8% D in late mail (USPS, so representative of the remining vote) and LA is quite strongly D so pulling that up a bit to the 1.0% D gain that we see. 8 points is a lot to make up and I can’t see just OC getting there, but that little bit of LA might. I’m not optimistic, but I think it’ll be close.
CA-47 is all OC (my district – I know you’re all jealous I get Katie, but I had a lot of shit until her, let me have this.) I’ve watched this count closely in the last two elections and being behind election day and slowly clawing out a win has been her pattern. I wasn’t sure that this would repeat here, but it’s doing exactly what I’ve seen before. OC is only counting USPS right now, so this trend should largely hold up in the remaining vote. I could see this getting called sooner than later.
CA-49 is split OC and San Diego. One of those weird occassions when SD is bluer than OC is. But it’s about 2/3 SD and 1/3 OC and San Diego seems proportionately behind on count than OC. Everyting seems to be in D favor on this one. Guessing this is a slow crawl to a victory, just waiting for remaining vote to shrink.
Seat counting impact: GOP needs 5 seats to hold. Dems need 6. This doesn’t add up but it’s because CA lost a seat. GOP ahead in 6, Dems ahead in 4. CA-13 and CA-22 show signs of life. If we got both that’d be a Dem net pickup of 1. CA-21 needs to hold though. Dems might pull off the triple banks shot to get CA-45, but it’s gonna need that kind of luck. That’s a lot of vote needing to break. But as a great man once said: “It’s Christmas, Theo. It’s the time of miracles.” Ignore the fact that it’s not Christmas and they didn’t get the miracle, it’s the thought that counts.
You know what, fuck you. I’m an atheist. I’m doing my best motivational effort here.
MazeDancer
Have addresses. Some new designs will be up tomorrow. There are two designs that say “Vote” you can use now,
With a little notice could have had more today. Did not know about the PostCard Party tonight.
WendyBinFL
Four Directions rocks! Sent $50.00. Thanks for all you do, WaterGirl!
West of the Cascades
A week ago (just a week ago!!) I shook CONGRESSMAN-ELECT Gabe Vasquez’s hand in Silver City. Cannot be prouder of my fellow New Mexicans for turning the southern half of the state blue in Congress this year. And so proud of the fundraising support from fellow jackals here for his campaign. Just pitched in $50 for the Four Directions GA run-off effort.
I cannot thank WaterGirl enough for helping encourage GOTV over the last month – I finally got off my sorry butt and made calls to NM-2 voters for the last two weeks, after early voting opened. It wasn’t much, but with a margin of just over 1,000 votes it may have helped.
Decayingviolets
Sent $25 to Four Directions to help them keep up the good work.
Another Scott
+$251
Thanks to the matchers, the post-card-scribes and artists and name grabbers, and everyone who makes it possible.
And WaterGirl!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Cheryl from Maryland
In for $100.00.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
In for $100! Go Warnock!
Taphozous
In for $250
Martin
@H.E.Wolf: I have a *really* nice fountain pen set I inherited from my grandfather and every time I’ve tried to use it resulted in a crime scene recreation. Now, I can paint without spilling a drop but fountain pen? Yeah, extra fountain for me.
zhena gogolia
@Martin: Tell it to King Charles III.
Rockstar
In for $25, thanks WaterGirl!
Cassandra
I threw $25 in the pot. Looks like you don’t need a screenshot?
Been reading the site for years, but this is my first post.
zhena gogolia
Hahaha, this is hilarious! Ted Cruz used an image of the Soviet WWII monument in Volgograd to represent Justice on the cover of his book:
WaterGirl
@MazeDancer: I could swear you were in a thread where we talked about it, but obviously I was wrong about that. So sorry!
WaterGirl
@West of the Cascades: Everything helped! Plus, the first step is the hardest.
WaterGirl
@Decayingviolets:
You get the double match! Your $25 turned into $75.
WaterGirl
@Cassandra: No screenshot needed, we are on the honor system here! :-)
Welcome to commenting!
And you get the double match! Your $25 turned into $75!
Barbara
In for $250
WaterGirl
@James E Powell: @WendyBinFL: @West of the Cascades: @Another Scott: @Cheryl from Maryland: @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: @Taphozous:
Wow, together you guys contributed $850, which comes to $1,700 for Warnock’s runoff.
thank you!
WaterGirl
@Barbara: And another $500 for the Warnock runoff. Thank you!
Haroldo
$25 more
Hamlet of Melnibone
In for $250
dkinPa
I just put in $25 for Four Directions Georgia. Thanks for doing this, WaterGirl! I feel like my money goes further when I donate through BJ, and Four Directions has been fantastic
Need to add: Thank you, Angels!!
JPL
@zhena gogolia: omg That is hilarious. Since I discontinued my account, I can only read a few of the comments, but did see poster child for the assholes before they shut me down.
emrys
In for $25
zhena gogolia
@JPL: Just click “sign in,” then click the X in the upper left of the box. They haven’t closed that loophole yet.
WaterGirl
@Haroldo: thank you.
And you get the double match! Your $25 turned into $75!
Ukai
Just donated $25.
WaterGirl
@dkinPa: thank you!
And yes, without the angels I doubt we could raise the amounts that we do!
And you get the double match! Your $25 turned into $75!
WaterGirl
@emrys: And you get the double match! Your $25 turned into $75! thank you
WaterGirl
@Barbara: @Hamlet of Melnibone: Thank you!
Together that’s $1,000 for Rev. Warnock’s runoff!
WaterGirl
We are halfway to $500 with $250 for the double-angel match!
SuzieC
OK, dammit. Another $25 for Four Directions match.
James E Powell
@WaterGirl:
Where do you go to get involved with the potstcards?
WaterGirl
And we are at $1,530 toward the $3,500 angel match!
WaterGirl
@James E Powell:
For addresses, you have the choice of Postcards to Voters or Postcards Patriots, which is the one MazeDancer runs.
Postcards to voters – you write what they give you to write.
Postcard Patriots – you work out your own wording I believe.
Which one sounds best to you?
WaterGirl
@SuzieC: thank you! That’s the double-angel match, so that turns into $75!
Almost Retired
I’m late to the party but I’m in for $100. CCM will win (..sound of wood being knocked …) but this is also an investment in protecting our majority in 2024.
Another Scott
@WaterGirl:
To elaborate:
PostcardPatriots.com (MazeDancer’s baby, and what I’ve used)
PostcardsToVoters.org (H.E. Wolf’s and other’s choice)
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
MazeDancer
Good job on the donating!
Some new GA PostCards are now up:
https://www.postcardpatriots.com/free-postcards
Like votes from NV, more will be coming.
FYI,. there us a handy online guide for Georgia Voters that you may want to mention in your PostCards. Conveniently called:
http://www.GeorgiaVoter.guide
WaterGirl
@Almost Retired: And no power sharing!!!
WaterGirl
I am heading out for an hour but will be back for the postcard writing and music thread, and to follow up on donations entered here.
Cole even gives me an hour off for dinner! :-)
Raoul Paste
In for $150.
James E Powell
@Another Scott:
Got it. Thanks.
H.E.Wolf
@Martin: [tale of fountain-pen woe]
Believe me, I feel your pain. :)
David Fud
In for $250
itswhatson
In for $25.
(First-time commenter, long-time lurker — since before Tunch got his wings.)
Avalie
J R in WV
We’re now in for $100 on this fundraising effort, using the top fundraising banner.
Wife is listening to the network coverage of the counts being reported out west as I write this message. Best of luck to GA Native Americans and al the Democratic voters down there. Walker is such a criminal madman I can’t believe he won the primary, and came so close in the general… what a
tool…fool!thruppence
In for another $50 (I think I have enough left for gas)
buggrit
In for $50.
WaterGirl
@itswhatson: you get the double-angel match! So your $25 turns into $75!
Welcome to commenting!
Lurk less, comment more, as I like to say. :-)
WaterGirl
@Avalie: Hi Avalie! You get the double-angel match, so that’s $75 for the good Reverend. :-)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
In for $25
WaterGirl
@Raoul Paste: @David Fud: @J R in WV: @thruppence: @buggrit:
Together that’s $600 in donations and $1,400 to Rev. Warnock’s runoff.
WaterGirl
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): That’s $75 for the runoff. Thank you.
WaterGirl
We are 3/4 of the way to $500 with another $125 for the double-angel match!
Just $125 left on the double-angel match!
WaterGirl
And we are nearly 2/3 of the way to $3,500 angel match with another $700 for the angel match.
Just $1,270 left on the final angel match!
There go two miscreants
Plunked in another $150 for Four Directions.
Mrscoachb
I just donated $25….I really want this Warnock win😀
WaterGirl
@Mrscoachb: You get the double-angel match! Your $25 is now $75!
WaterGirl
@There go two miscreants: Thank you! That’s $300 for the Reverend’s runoff.
Let’s win this!
WaterGirl
Just $100 left on the double-angel match!
Just $1,120 left on the final angel match!
CapybaraTeam6
In for $100.
ChrisSherbak
Donating $50.
Jimmm
In for another $50…
GibberJack
@David Fud: Kudos!
Jesse
Just chipped in $50.
Hazmat
In for $50!
WaterGirl
@CapybaraTeam6: @ChrisSherbak: @Jimmm: @Jesse: @Hazmat:
Together, that’s $300 for the match and $600 for Rev Warnock through Four Directions!
asw
Donated $75. Thank you for all your work!
WaterGirl
@asw: Thank you so much!
As I write this, we are just $1,354 away from hitting the $35,000 Four Directions goal for Monday!
Both angels have added their matches to the thermometer already, so the next $1,354 has been pre-matched! The pre-match applies to donations of any amount.
Then we’re taking Monday off from fundraising.
Then on Tuesday we can start raising funds for the other boots on the ground organization. (The same one that was in AZ before the election moved to GA for the runoff.)
We will still have the two current thermometers in the sidebar. So folks will have options.
Wolvesvalley
How can I resist? Here is another $50 for Four Directions.
Tom Levenson
Couldn’t resist making a probably surplus-to-requirement donation direct to Warnock, but just dropped another $50 here.
Tom Levenson
Couldn’t resist making a probably surplus-to-requirement donation direct to Warnock, but just dropped another $50 here.
WaterGirl
@Wolvesvalley: @Tom Levenson:
Thank you! Just $750 from our goal now
edit: Well, $754, but close enough.
WaterGirl
We did it!
Update on Sunday at 4:30 pm: We did it! We reached our goal of $35,000 for Four Directions to jump start their activities on the ground in Georgia, starting on Monday! You guys are amazing, especially the Balloon Juice angels!
We’ll take a rest for a day or two and then we will start raising money for more boots on the ground in GA, this time for the Worker Power group that we supported for AZ just a small number of weeks ago!