We @TheNVIndy project @SenCortezMasto as the winner of the Nevada Senate race. https://t.co/Lc4l95xUEj
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 13, 2022
Senator Cortez Masto (D-NV) has been re-elected. She is the 50th Democratic Senator for the 2023 Congress. At this time with Georgia undecided and heading to a run-off, the Democrats have a minimum viable majority when Vice President Harris is in town.
An hour earlier, Democrats picked up Washington-03
WOW. ABC News can report that Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) is projected to win #WA03. This is the biggest upset of the 2022 election—she had only a 2% chance in our final forecast.
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) November 13, 2022
The range of outcomes is anything from a 218-217 Democratic majority to a 2019-2016 Republican majority.
Baud
That’s a lot of MAGA!
Mowgli
Saw CNN call it, it was awesome! Great job with assists, Juicers!
Baud
That’s an amazing upset. Way to go WA 3.
TaMara
I just watched both Boebert (Batshit Crazy rep for CO-3) and Frisch (Democratic Candidate for CO-3) discuss the ongoing counts. Neither sounds like they are sure of a win and both seem prepared for a recount. I’m keeping cautious, but hopeful, thoughts on a Boebert being shown the door.
CaseyL
*runs around in circles, screaming*
WE DID IT WE DID IT WE DID IT
WE DID IT WE DID IT WE DID IT
WE DID IT WE DID IT WE DID IT
*faints with joy and relief
Urza
So, theres mention of what happens if some of the treason crowd are indicted later. That probably depends on state laws and governors in control I suppose.
bbleh
@CaseyL: something like that, yes.
Wouldn’t have believed it a month ago.
Hats off to every volunteer and donor. It was a massive team effort by a massive team.
JaySinWA
Keeping Kent out of office is a good thing for all of us. Another election denier bites the dust.
Marie Perez defies the odds, not the elections
Great to see Masto win.
Now to retain Warnock to keep the senate a little saner.
Suzanne
OMG THIS IS INCREDIBLE.
bbleh
@Urza: Indictments, meh. Even convictions probably wouldn’t matter. They literally almost never throw people out of the House.
Elizabelle
Thank goodness. Excellent news.
Dan B
Kent must be thrilled by Marie’s win. Joe Kent is handsome and monstrous. Marie is gorgeous and has cred as a mechanic running a business with her husband so if she manages to do some good for her district and not give the right wingers a reason to detonate she’ll have incumbency in her next election. There are some nutcases (Patriot Prayer who terrorized Portland) in the district so we hope the DOJ is keeping an eye on them.
Lapassionara
@Urza: my thought also. Let’s wait to find out.
bbleh
And as to the thrill of leading a painfully narrow Republican House majority, former Speakers Boehner and Ryan would like a word … oh wait, sorry, they’ve collapsed in laughter, maybe later …
Baud
@Dan B:
I only know Kent from this blog but he doesn’t come off as monstrous.
hells littlest angel
Joyous news. Also, what Cole said.
Martin
@bbleh: Yeah, no R will leave the House until the marshals have to deliver them to start their sentence.
Dan B
@CaseyL: That’s why I heard loud noises to the north.*
*about 6 miles north of me…
Baud
@bbleh:
While I hope we pull it off, the sliver lining with a GOP controlled house is that it removes Manchin and Sinema from the focus of obstruction.
Ken
Sure that’s not PSTD-induced hysterical psychosis?
JaySinWA
@Baud: Don’t count the house out yet. Unlikely but still a hold is possible.
ETA Either way the house is going to be a zoo.
Dan B
@Baud: OKay, from now on it’s “Our Kent”, or “Jackal Kent” versus “the Monster that is Joe Kent”. You win.
Baud
@JaySinWA:
I hope so. I’m not someone that believes in the theory of lose now to win later.
Tom Levenson
@Martin: Plea bargains. I expect if there are some open and shut cases that the feds will offer attractive deals that include immediate exit from office (and a commitment/felony conviction that bars them from holding fed. office ever again).
CaseyL
@Dan B: Heh, at the end of my happy squeal I think only dogs could hear me : )
JaySinWA
@Dan B: With any luck we won’t have Joe Kent to kick around anymore.
Baud
I also hope this disincentivizes GOP voters on GA from voting for Walker, since he won’t be the difference maker in controlling the Senate.
Tom Levenson
@Baud: concur.
Whatever pleasure one might get from a shit show R controlled house, even the barest of D majorities is off-the-charts better.
JaySinWA
@Baud: I share that hope, and hope it doesn’t do the same to Warnock voters for the same reason. We can use a spare vote.
Gin & Tonic
@bbleh: The House has never expelled a Republican.
lashonharangue
@Baud: It is also a disincentive to big money donors who want a return on their “investment.”
Baud
@lashonharangue:
Good point.
Cameron
And here’s hoping Donald Trump does his part and announces on Tuesday that he’s running again.
hilts
@Baud:
At McConnell’s request, Brian Kemp is throwing his political machine behind Walker but hopefully we’ll out organize those ratfuckers and get a win for Warnock.
JaySinWA
@Tom Levenson: Absolutely better, but a narrow majority makes everyone a king. Keeping control will be a challenge even for the D’s
Especially if Nancy retires.
Martin
@Tom Levenson: Oh, that’s true. That’s basically the entirety of the Spiro Agnew case.
oldgold
If the margin ends up being 1 or 2 in the House, can you imagine the special elections?
The last 4 Congresses have had a total of 67 special House elections.
oldgold
@Baud: I think it will.
dmsilev
Here in lala land, our fascist wannabe sheriff looks like he’s going to lose reelection resoundingly. Only about 2/3s of the votes counted so far (yeah, yeah, it’s the California way) and he’s about 17 percentage points behind. Also, the voters approved a ballot question which gives the county Board of Supervisors the authority to essentially impeach and remove a sheriff in the future. LA City Mayor is a knife-edge though. Karen Bass is slightly ahead, but by less than a percentage point so nobody is throwing any parties or giving any concession speeches just yet.
Kent
No? What am I doing wrong?
As for the other Kent up here in the WA-3rd. He was basically an empty suit and pretty boy who had secretive backers like Peter Thiel and he went all-in on the MAGA in order to beat Jaime Hererra Beutler. He didn’t have much if any political history before some billionaires paid him to move up here and run. Reportedly he was actually a Bernie supporter when he lived in Portland.
Good riddance. People saw right through it. And he got a lot of bad local press towards the end of the race when it was revealed that the company he reportedly worked for didn’t even exist and he never answered who was paying his paycheck.
Scout211
JoyceH
Okay, where was Shumer, some hotel lobby? I liked the nice touch of the slippery when wet floor sign behind him. And the janitor trying not to be on television.
NaijaGal
Oh this is amazing news!
Martin
@JaySinWA: Man, the Ds job of holding the caucus together is *so* much easier than the Rs job if it’s just one vote. That’s mostly due to Nancys work – sure as shit wasn’t that way a decade+ ago.
Baud
@oldgold:
Joe won’t be filling any administration positions from the House caucus.
bbleh
@Ken: True, can be difficult to distinguish … oh hang on, gotta keep Boehner from aspirating … fkin Bourbon and now he’s decided weed is ok …
Eolirin
@JaySinWA: It’s not a spare vote, since Manchin is almost certainly toast and we have zero pickup opportunities in 2024. We need to be at 51 going into next cycle.
Kent
Can you imagine how much fun it will be for the GOP Majority leader when he has Boebert, MTG, and that psycho in AZ Gozar? acting as his own personal Manchin and Sinema and with veto control over every GOP measure? Actually he will probably have 25 of them and will have to get all 25 in line for every vote with zero margin. In fact he will physically have to get them into the chamber to vote and a bunch of them are pretty absentee legislators.
Martin
@dmsilev: Bass should have this. I’m almost positive that LA county late mail will favor her.
Hitchhiker
Man, I have been on the Marie Perez train since last summer — once we got a good look at Joe Kent, that really seemed like a winnable race. She worked hard and sold herself as an earnest person with deep roots in the community. She reminds me tonight of another young WA mom who was in the right place at the right time with the right skills.
Patty Murray won a Senate seat here in 1992, right after the Hill/Thomas fiasco. She was just a “mom in tennis shoes” who had been in the PTA and then (briefly) in state government. Big learning curve, and she was mocked for awhile for being way over her head. She’s now one of the most powerful people in the Senate, and just won a sixth term.
Martin
CA late update. Repost from earlier with a few updates. Some count did come in at the end of the day.
CA-03: – 6.0 [* ] (open seat) [79,188]
CA-09: +12.6 [* ] (D incumbent) [44,513]
CA-13: – 0.2 [+0.2] (open seat) [39,613]
CA-21: + 9.2 [-1.0] (D incumbent) [44,710]
CA-22: – 5.0 [+3.4] (R incumbent) [26,799]
CA-27: -10.8 [+1.2] (R incumbent) [61,342]
CA-41: – 1.2 [-0.2] (R incumbent) [63,507]
CA-45: – 7.8 [+0.2] (R incumbent) [73,474]
CA-47: + 2.4 [* ] (D incumbent) [100,228]
CA-49: + 4.2 [+0.8] (D incumbent) [110,047]
CA-03 now looks to me to be out of reach based on where remaining votes are (this district spans 10 counties). Mono and Nevada counties are good for D, but there’s not a lot of vote left there. Sacramento is the bulk of it, and it’s been slightly R favored there. That *could* shift D in late mail, but none of that is yet visible to me, so until more count comes in and we see evidence of this potential, my guess is D either don’t make headway or don’t make enough headway. Still not called, but this looks like a low odds D recovery. Our contributors in the comment section on the ground sense is this should go to the R.
CA-09 is spread over 3 counties. San Juaquin is the D base, with Contra Costa and Stanislaus tending to be R, but San Juaquin is where most of the district is, so this should be fine. There’s only maybe half the vote in and it’s been slow to show up, so this looks pretty likely D, we just need to get over the 50% mark so the runway for a reversal goes away.
CA-13 is spread over 5 counties (are we detecting a trend why these races are hard to call?) Merced and Stanislaw are where most of the vote is and they’re slightly D favored. This is one that remaing vote could favor D and swing this over the line for team D. The last update shows this slight D favor.
CA-21 is only 2 counties! Fresno is the dominant vote and favors D. Tulare is a smaller share and favors R. There’s more outstanding share (as a fraction of total votes already in) in Tulare, so that’s why you’re seeing late mail breaking my theory and favoring R over D. This will be close but my back of napkin is that D should squeak by.
CA-22 is 3 counties. About half in Kern and half spread across Kings and Tulare. Kern is D favored, and the others R favored. There’s almost no vote left in Kings (small counties can finish up faster) and a lot lefe in Kern (at least there was before the 3.4 gain for the D – the vote data and the uncounted data are out of phase so I get one updated but not the other and then need to speculate what’s happeing with the other.) So we got a big chunk taken out of the R lead here. Even though D is behind, depending on what’s left and how representative what’s been counted is of what’s left (USPS mail vs vote center/ballot box) the window of a D win hasn’t closed here. We’ll see. That 3.4 point gain is more than I was expecting (I think it’s 2 days worth of vote count) so keep an eye on this one.
CA-27 is entirely LA county. Dems have been gaining in late mail, but so far not at the pace needed. That could change, but unless the county has been counting predominantly red drop box/vote center ahead of USPS and blue drop box/vote center (possible) then there aren’t enough outstanding ballots to get there. The weakness of late mail to early mail for D partisanship looks pretty comparable to what I’m seeing in OC, so I think this one is a longshot. Update: Got a pretty good count here in favor of D. This is in the ballpark of what is needed. Question is whether there is enough to go. LA tends to proportionately have a lot of late count due to its size.
CA-41 is entirely in Riverside county. This is another one that breaks the theory with R gain in late mail. That could be the nature of the district, or it could be a late mail count that is not representative of the rest of the late mail. I’m not sure why early mail was *so* strongly in favor of the D and then swung so hard post election day. My guess is that a lot of same-day machine didn’t get counted entirely on election day and some of that spilled over until after and so the cadence of partisan shift didn’t match other places. Keeping my eye on this. I respect the on the ground sense from our contributors that this should be an R win, but I need more data to get there. So far, I’m not sold. I think it’ll be close either way.
CA-45 is split between LA and OC, but it’s 90% OC. OC has been going about 0.8% D in late mail (USPS, so representative of the remining vote) and LA is quite strongly D so pulling that up a bit to the 1.0% D gain that we see. 8 points is a lot to make up and I can’t see just OC getting there, but that little bit of LA might. I’m not optimistic, but I think it’ll be close. Update: Got some count in this one today – not a lot, but a 0.2 gain for the Dem. I can’t see what is happening in LA county, but OC did a decent bit of count today, so this is feeling less likely at the moment.
CA-47 is all OC (my district – I know you’re all jealous I get Katie, but I had a lot of shit until her, let me have this.) I’ve watched this count closely in the last two elections and being behind election day and slowly clawing out a win has been her pattern. I wasn’t sure that this would repeat here, but it’s doing exactly what I’ve seen before. OC is only counting USPS right now, so this trend should largely hold up in the remaining vote. I could see this getting called sooner than later.
CA-49 is split OC and San Diego. One of those weird occassions when SD is bluer than OC is. But it’s about 2/3 SD and 1/3 OC and San Diego seems proportionately behind on count than OC. Everything seems to be in D favor on this one. Guessing this is a slow crawl to a victory, just waiting for remaining vote to shrink. Update: there are some calls for CA-49, but not broadly. Probaly get called tomorrow. Note that the folks that called this didn’t call the other races that look like longshots, so hope remains.
Seat counting impact: GOP needs 5 seats to hold. Dems need 6. This doesn’t add up but it’s because CA lost a seat. GOP ahead in 6, Dems ahead in 4. CA-13 and CA-22 show signs of life. If we got both that’d be a Dem net pickup of 1. CA-21 needs to hold though. Dems might pull off the triple banks shot to get CA-45, but it’s gonna need that kind of luck. That’s a lot of vote needing to break. But as a great man once said: “It’s Christmas, Theo. It’s the time of miracles.” Ignore the fact that it’s not Christmas and they didn’t get the miracle, it’s the thought that counts. You know what, fuck you. I’m an atheist. I’m doing my best motivational effort here.
The data is a bit of a mess. There’s no statewide uncounted update for 2 days, mainly due to the holiday and weekend. That count tends to go out from counties and somewhat random times. Not all counties are working on the holiday or on Saturday. Not everything is ticking at the state SOS office. So when I do have count, I don’t have the scope of what isn’t counted, or the reverse, etc. Kinda having to just vibe on this one. Maybe things will improve Monday night. Remember, we’re still getting mail ballots until Tues 11/15 and deadline to certify is early December. No need to work the staff 24/7. It’s not like we can seat these folks before January anyway.
Watergirl emailed me regarding CA-15 being called. This was two Ds due to our jungle primary. It’s a D hold and was a guaranteed D seat back when the primaries were held. Same for CA-34 which hasn’t yet been called and is also a D hold.
bbleh
@Baud: @JaySinWA: @hilts: @oldgold: I think this will not only discourage Walker voters but also excite Warnock voters. Nobody likes to show up for the losers, and everybody wants to be at the winners’ party.
It will be important to emphasize how much we NEED the 51st vote — to avoid power-sharing negotiations, and to have the seat in ’24 and ’26 when the calendar is against us, and most of all to have a sane and moral voice in the Senate instead of … something else.
dmsilev
@Martin: She’s slowly been creeping up in the count over the last several days as the mail-in votes get counted, so yeah that’s probably right.
Baud
@Kent:
The House will essentially be in a filibuster situation. The GOP will need Dems to get anything done.
bbleh
@Baud: Poor Nancy. None of the public responsibility and all of the actual power. What will she do?
JaySinWA
@Hitchhiker: Patty Murray got her start here, knocked on our door in her first senate race. She made those tennis shoes work.
Mike in NC
Could this news possibly induce a fatal stroke in Fat Bastard? Would be great that it happened the day after another of his horrible children married a parasite.
Nicole
Oh my God, I’m so relieved. I think it’s good for Warnock in the runoff; I can only think it’ll be disheartening to GOP voters that they won’t have control either way the runoff goes. Still gonna write postcards and give him some $ though.
And I’m so happy I don’t have to hear the words, “Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell” for at least another 2 years. Maybe ever again. That would be nice.
Dan B
@JaySinWA: I like that. It’s less energy than trying to kick him. I don’t remember all the ways he was horrible but not needing to know is very appealing.
LeftCoastYankee
Marie ran a whip smart campaign, and the contrast with the Crazy Kent couldn’t have been greater.
IIRC Kent was running Pelosi bashing ads AFTER the attack on her husband. And the late local coverage of his phony job didn’t help.
I look forward to seeing MGP in congress, and Crazy Joe in court.
Citizen Alan
@Baud: That assumes they want to achieve anything, which they don’t because they’re a nihilistic death cult. Plus, the prostitute media will blame gridlock from the House on Dems. But I don’t care. Whatever else happens, it’s 2 years of every judicial and executive branch appointment by Biden getting approved. So I’m off now to stick some more pins in my Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito dolls.
Kent
@Dan B: Yep.
Unless I miss my guess, WA-3rd should never turn red again. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is a perfect fit for the district and she is only 34. She was also a relentless campaigner and very smart. And just like AOC she seems to really enjoy campaigning and social media engagement.
Plus the district is getting bluer by the hour. Here in Clark County (Vancouver and surrounding smaller suburbs) growth is happening at warp speed. There are apartments, subdivisions, and new commercial developments popping up all over the place around here. Oregon has stricter land-use and development laws than WA so a lot of the Portland metro-area growth is pushing across the river.
By contrast, all the red parts of the district which is most of the rural logging and mill towns between Vancouver and Olympia like Longview, Kelso, Centralia, and Chehalis are stagnant at best. The district was eventually going to flip blue, it just happened a cycle or two sooner than I expected
It isn’t ever going to be a deep blue urban district. But it should eventually be a solidly blue suburban district much like the suburban areas around Seattle.
H.E.Wolf
Between mid-June and Nov. 7th, I updated database info for more than 10,000 people in WA State… prioritizing addresses in WA-03. (Introverts: we get the job done.)
I hope it helped. The real help, as always, were the volunteers who did the actual canvassing, phonebanking, and textbanking. A heartfelt thanks to every one of them!
Jackie
@Baud: Kent is a Mega MAGA. As a Washingtonian, and Democrat, this is YOOOGH!
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democrats-defeats-maga-republican-trump-impeachment-rcna56803
WaterGirl
@JaySinWA: The house will not be a zoo if the DEMS win it.
Baud
@Citizen Alan:
I think some of the new GOP reps aren’t going to want to go into 2024 beating the MAGA drum.
Baud
The other unknown is that the anti-choice folks have been disciplined for the sake of this election. I don’t know if they’ll want to wait 2 more years to get their full oppression on. What the GOP stands for will be pretty apparent by 2024.
WaterGirl
@LeftCoastYankee: I put one of her ads in the previous post. How could anyone not vote for her?
Scout211
@Martin: Thanks for the detailed California updates. CA-09 is the district (with some boundary changes in the redistricting) that McNerney used to represent and he was re-elected many times. San Joaquin County is not solid blue but leans blue. (That’s where I lived for 30+ years).
Harder is doing well so far and Patti has had ethics charges against him as a member of the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors. They voted not to censure him but the Stockton Record had several stories about it. I think it hasn’t been called yet because the vote counting has been super slow.
Frankensteinbeck
Insert red wave joke here.
But seriously, the midterm effect is powerful. Remember 2010. This time we lost a little in the House, either broke even or gained one in the senate, improved our situation in state governments… it may not be a blue wave either, but we have weathered a brutal storm.
Keeping the Senate is huge. There is a lot of obstruction like judge appointments McConnell could and would have done. If the House becomes a graveyard where nothing but budgets and show trials happen, no one will care about the show trials, and we’ll clean their clocks on budget negotiations.
WaterGirl
@H.E.Wolf: Are you kidding? Data entry, good data entry is key. Go you!
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
I am so happy about this! What a relief!
Jackie
@Baud: Agree. Will DeSantis or Kemp be inspired to support and rally for Walker now? Or Lindsey?
Trump has already been discouraged to not go to Georgia. 😂🤣😂
Suzanne
Cisco Aguilar won Nevada SOS!!!
Baud
@Suzanne:
Excellent news for honest elections.
Skepticat
I’m weak with relief. I almost was afraid to hope, but I’m so happy that right (as in correct, not the wingnuts) makes might. I might be able to sleep well tonight, but it would be lovely if we could awake to more House wins too.
bbleh
@Suzanne: Sweet! That makes, uhh, ZERO election-denying MAGA nutcases winning state SoS positions? (Or am I forgetting one?)
Baud
@Frankensteinbeck:
There was like a very long period where the midterm effect was all the media could talk about in predicting doom for Dems.
eclare
I bet the ketchup is flying at Mar a Lardo!
So relieved…I’m shaking. And I still have hope for the House. The opera ain’t over…
Eolirin
@bbleh: I think one won in Wyoming. But also, it’s Wyoming.
Baud
I feel better about us not abandoning Ukraine with these numbers.
Dan B
@H.E.Wolf: Wow! Impressive achievement!! 10,000!!! I’m agog…
Suzanne
@bbleh: I don’t know. What about in one of the red states?
phdesmond
@H.E.Wolf:
it must feel great to have been a part of that.
eclare
@Baud: So true! And I have no doubt UKR is watching too.
bbleh
@Eolirin: @Suzanne: yeah, sorry, I meant in the states where it might matter.
Ken
You say that now, but in two years when the Wyoming SoS overrides the 41%-35%-23% Democratic plurality win and assigns all three of Wyoming’s electoral votes to the third-place MAGA Party candidate…
phdesmond
@JaySinWA:
that’s an indelible memory. and what a Patty Murray anecdote!
H.E.Wolf
@Dan B:
I did a little bit every day, and had fun armchair-touring around the state. Loved seeing all the 20-somethings who were in the mix!
@phdesmond:
It does feel great. I’m a big believer in:
a) It’s doggèd as does it;
b) Revenge is a dish best served cold.
:-)
Baud
@Ken:
If we ever get 41% in WY, we’re winning the other 49 states outright.
Frankensteinbeck
@Baud:
Nancy is very, very good, and the whole reason Boehner and Ryan blocked all serious legislation from a vote is that their caucus is far from unified. A voting rights or abortion rights law might be a step too far, but if a bill can get on the floor, I think Nancy can pass most things.
So the big question is who will be Speaker and how obstructionist they will be. I admit that any Republican speaker has a powerful motivation to not let Nancy prove that she’s the one who actually controls the voting floor.
El Muneco
@Baud: I know a lot of people suggest expanding the House to accommodate modern population levels, but I agree that over 4000 representatives is ridiculous.
Eolirin
@Frankensteinbeck: We’ve seen meaningful bipartisan bills pass this cycle, like Ukrainian aid, the semiconductor manufacturing bill, and the burn pit bill, so if the senate is pushing something, with a fractured caucus in the house, it’s possible discharge petitions might actually be a viable way forward. If you only need to peel off one or two Rs to bring something up that’s going to pass with 20-30 of them, maybe that’ll work.
Sanjeevs
If it’s 51-49 in the Senate that means no more power sharing on Committees.
So maybe Jan 6 investigation can be moved to the Senate
WaterGirl
@Suzanne: I hadn’t seen that. The 4D people told me 3 days ago that he would win; they were already referring to him as Secretary Aguilar.
But it’s still a relief to find out that it’s official!
WaterGirl
@Sanjeevs: We also don’t know that we have lost the House.
Jackie
Did a (very) quick check on FAUX – “At least we’re winning the school board elections” as they were reporting on the Dems keeping the Senate.
I laughed, but it reminded me that we need to vote all the way down the ballot – and figure out where nominees stand on these seats. I know in my district, school board nominees aren’t listed by Party.
ETA The last three posts, I’ve had to re-enter nym and email.
Alison Rose
I guess the red wave is all the blood pouring out of Republicans’ noses.
WaterGirl
@Baud: That was my first thought about the Senate when it looked like we would likely keep it. My second thought was judges.
tybee
@Baud:
me too
WaterGirl
@Jackie:
Are you by any chance in a private browser window? Have it set to not save cookies?
Suzanne
@Alison Rose: Or their keesters, because we kicked their asses.
zhena gogolia
@eclare: My husband stopped what he was doing when I told him and turned away. I said, “Are you praying?” He said, “You bet I am!”
eclare
@zhena gogolia: Such a relief.
danielx
The cup, it runneth over.
David Chop
To which I say, again?
Seriously, polling has been unreliable for at least the last 3 election cycles now. At some point we have to start treating “new poll out today…” as the clickbait it is i.e., ignoring it.
eclare
MAGA wars are happening on Twitter over who to blame. I love it!
Jackie
@WaterGirl: Nope. I haven’t changed a thing.
I blame disgruntled republicans.
And I did a quick peek before posting and it seems to have gone back to normal. Just a hiccup, I guess. 🤷🏼♀️
BlueGuitarist
@H.E.Wolf: Awesome!
Fake Irishman
This win is huge and probably means that the Dems get between several dozen and several score more federal judges confirmed in the next two years. McConnell’s senate not only blocked Garland from sCOTUS but also confirmed only TWO appellate judges in 2015-2016 and something like 15 district court judges.
and it gives us two more years of insurance on the three Dem judges and a potential opportunity in the unlikely case that something happens to one of the others….
Raoul Paste
I believe I’ll have that ice cream now
Fake Irishman
@David Chop:
When 435 seats are up, there is almost always going to be a few surprises, statisitically speaking.
The mainline polls were pretty much dead-on this year.
eclare
@Raoul Paste: I hope Joe is enjoying a big bowl of ice cream! Nancy too…I have fridge envy over that shot of her freezer.
Another Scott
@Fake Irishman: It really is excellent news. And I like our chances with Warnock.
Redistrict catches us up on the state of the House (too many links for me to embed).
Fingers crossed!!
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Someone on twitter (as ever, FWIW) said that an important difference between 51 and 50 Senators is the Judiciary committee will no longer be fifty-fifty, and they can do things they haven’t been able to for the last two years. I believe I’ve heard this mentioned specifically with regard to a Senate 1/6 committee. I wonder if Schumer and Durbin would be able to somehow transfer the work, and a couple of unemployed committee members, to a Senate or Senate-authorized body
Sister Golden Bear
@Baud: Another unknown is whether the anti-trans/anti-LGBQ folks back off — it clearly wasn’t an election winner. Most people don’t really care about us either way. I.e. they aren’t necessarily entirely supportive, but they’re not bothered enough to want to take away our rights.
But sadly, I suspect they’ll double-down, both because DeSantis got re-elected and because they’ll want to pass as much bigotry as they can lest they get voted out in 2024.
Timill
Given the Ohio SC declared the maps unconstitutional, can the House refuse to seat all Ohio reps until an election is held on constitutional maps?
moonbat
Don’t know if he’s been mentioned here already but Christopher Bouzy @cbouzy on Twitter has had spot on predictions for this entire election cycle and he’s publicly pantsing all the pollsters who were so terribly wrong from Frank Luntz to Real Clear Politics to 538 on the Twitter machine. It’s a beautiful thing to behold.
To the point though, his model says Dems keep the House.
WaterGirl
I do feel calmer, and sleepy, so I am headed to bed.
Betty posted this on Thursday, it’s so soothing.
Kent
They’ll be going hell for leather. It is already starting up in Florida.
WaterGirl
If we can get $1,500 more for Four Directions for the runoff, no fundraising tomorrow at all!
Once we do that, the angels will add their $1,000 and $3,500 (respectively) and we will have raised $35,000 to get boots on the ground for theNative vote starting on Monday.
Latest fundraising thread is here.
Goodnight all.
Dan B
@Jackie: There was a school board in Naples, Florida that elected three right wingers. One wants to bring back corporal punishment for disabled students and eliminate rights for LGBTQ students.
BlueGuitarist
@Suzanne:
@bbleh:
Great news about Cisco! Go Wildcats!
Election deniers lost for Secretary of State in all the battleground states, but in addition to WY, as Eolirin mentioned, won in AL, ND, and
Indiana, where Republican Diego Morales won emphasizing “election integrity” after reports that he had voted at an address in a different county than the address he claimed as his primary residence for the purpose of getting a tax break
ETA link: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/indiana-gop-elections-chief-candidate-faces-fraud-questions-92627392
Sister Golden Bear
@Jackie: Agreed. This is why we can’t ignore school boards. Florida naturally.
I grew up behind the Orange Curtain in CA when the Christofascists were in charge of my district’s school board decades ago — I know the damage they can do.
FelonyGovt
@Martin: When I was in Palm Springs recently I talked to some local Dems about the CA-41 race. They were hopeful but said it would be a heavy lift because a lot of the district is heavily R.
Kent
Well, the Huskies just beat Oregon and that combined with Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s win means this has been a very big red letter day here in the Kent household!
HumboldtBlue
@moonbat:
I started seeing his tweets a few weeks ago, and I followed him last week. He’s been spot on.
Another Scott
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Norm Ornstein said that at a Brookings panel discussion a few days ago (recently rebroadcast on C-SPAN). A 50:50 Senate means that committees have no majority either. 51:49 means that committees can have a several seat D majority (as the majority writes the rules). It means a lot for getting things done.
Cheers,
Scott.
TriassicSands
The Gluesenkamp Perez victory is fantastic. She beat an election-denier-liar who won the primary over one of the two Republican WA representatives who voted to impeach the Orange Creature. The other R to vote for impeachment won re-election. So, only the odious Republican McMorris Rogers remains.
Sister Golden Bear
@Another Scott: Given that California can take several weeks to issue final results, which could decide the close races, it’ll at least be fun watching the Republican leadership Thunderdome cage match in the interim.
“Four pols enter, one pol leaves! FOUR POLS ENTER, ONE POL LEAVES!!!”
moonbat
@HumboldtBlue: Yeah, I have tweet alerts set for him. He’s kept me sane since Wednesday. lol
eclare
@Kent: As a UT fan, thank you! That gives OR two losses to Tennessee’s one.
TriassicSands
In other, isolated, but still terrible news, Darrell Issa (CA-48) returns to the House. Being a criminal isn’t a liability for the richest man in the House.
I have a good friend who lives in Southern California and she has suffered through being represented by Issa, Duncan Hunter, and other ultra-right wing cretins. I feel for her. Now, it’s Issa again. Redistricting never gives her a break.
Jackie
@Dan B: That’s why we need information on who’s running. Somehow the republicans know who to vote for. Democrats need to crack the code in order to know who to vote for/against. As someone who lives in MAGA eastern WA, this is especially worrisome.
piratedan
a quick check of the AZsos website: https://results.arizona.vote/#/federal/33/0
shows that Hobbs has expanded her lead to 34k+
Dems have been declared the winner’s in the Senate and Secretary of State races
Dems lead in the AG and Superintendent of Public Schools but with margins less than Hobbs
Congressional races:
Dems lead in AZ 1 – Hodge vs Schweikert, Hodge up by 2500 (this would be a flip)
Dems trail in AZ 2 – Crane vs. O’Halleran, Crane up by 25000 (this would be a flip)
Dems trail in AZ 6 – Ciscomani vs Engel, Ciscomani up by 1250 (this would be a flip, but could still go Dem) but this is in a fair bit of Pima County…
The other races are as expected, Dem holds with Gallego, Grijalva and Stanton, GOP holds with Biggs, Gosar and Lesko
Frankensteinbeck
@eclare:
Conservatism cannot fail, it can only be failed. So now they fight about who failed conservatism. Looks like the two main sides are “This is McConnell’s fault” vs “This is Trump’s fault.”
It’s hard to be sure how that’s going, because the election deniers among the base are also screaming their heads off that this election was also stolen. Many of them think a big chunk of the Republican establishment is in on it.
HumboldtBlue
@Kent:
Let the chaos reign, great win by the Huskies. I think USC is the team to beat.
eclare
@Frankensteinbeck: They do! Priming a minority of people to believe conspiracy theories may not be the best way to win elections.
Martin
@Another Scott: Running CA-13, -22, and -41 will be really tough. I wish I had better data to say, though.
I’d build a proper data tool for CA elections, but I think there’s better uses for that energy.
Kent
@HumboldtBlue: Oregon and USC don’t meet this year unless they meet in the PAC-12 championship which is actually pretty likely. Ducks still lead the Pac-12 north with only 1 loss. Huskies have 2 conference losses. If USC beats UCLA then OR and USC will likely meet in the Pac-12 championship which would be for OR to go to the Rose Bowl and knock USC out of the national championship.
Martin
@Sister Golden Bear: I would be surprised if all the CA races are called earlier than Wed given that we still receive ballots through Tues, and in OC we have 7,000 provisional registration/provisional ballots to process, and who the fuck knows what they even look like. They’re not quick to process.
Jackie
@piratedan: Still wearing blue – and will until Team Blue keeps the House🤞🏻
And until Hobbs beats Lake!🤞🏻🤞🏻
Thankfully my Seahawks shirt is Blue! LOL
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Kent: F*ck the Ducks – signed, an
alumnialumnus.cain
Given that the young have come through on all the swing states – that means that the GOP gotta problem because the demographics works against them in the swing states. They are going to have to figure out how to appeal to younger more liberal voters – my guess is that they can’t because they are stuck with the Christian fascists and so eventually they are just going to end up being a regional party with only the southern states like Texas and Florida – but even then if the boomers and genx’ers are the one dominating the Florida population they aren’t going to be sustainable going forward.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Another Scott: How about Alaska? Don’t they do ranked choice? Is it decided or not?
HumboldtBlue
@Kent:
I have USC winning out (that offense is damn good) and going to the playoff, but a loss to either UCLA (who don’t have the defense to stop that Trojan offense) or Oregon (who I can see beating USC) cancels out the PAC 12.
Of course, Oregon still has to beat Utah, and that’s no easy task.
All that being said, nobody is beating Georgia unless they fold like a bad poker hand.
Kattails
We are going to hold the House. And then we are going to have to work our asses off to produce for those who voted in good faith. One thing is to remind the younger voters that this isn’t a taxi, it doesn’t go straight to your own front door; it’s a bus. It’s been a very long time since I was in school & pretty sure I got minimal information on how government works. We need to remind everyone that it’s a process.
But we also need to bring society along with every chance to talk with someone, whether it’s about the environment and energy policy or human rights.
I stood at the polls with another Democrat, and our signs. He’s a good guy, probably late 70’s (I’m not far behind). But he was talking about how the problem is that we’ve sent all the good manufacturing jobs overseas. He, older white male, didn’t have any current topics on his radar at all. Not really aware of the various rights that are on the chopping block. Not aware of how environmental policy might add jobs, the CHIPS act, the infrastructure bill… we had lots of time to chat. This is a real part of the “Democratic messaging problem” ™️ that we hear about ad nauseam. It’s not just up to our elected representatives. We also need to emphasize “representatives” vs. “leaders”.
Whew, I’ve been out of touch for a while, venting a bit, will log off now…
Cacti
I read somewhere that if Mary Peltola pulls out the win in Alaska…
That would mean the Republican Party would hold zero House districts touching the Pacific Ocean after the loss of WA-3 and CA-49.
H.E.Wolf
@BlueGuitarist:
The Replublicans should have known better than to tick me off. :-)
Kent
I grew up in Eugene and my dad was an alum and I probably attended the majority of home games with him and his buddies from the early 1970s until I graduated HS in 1982. The whole Rich Brooks era when they still dressed like Green Bay Packers. I was a pretty loyal fan for decades but that started to fade when I attended UW for grad school in the mid early 1990s. Since then we have made our home in WA and I have a daughter attending UW where she was in the marching band last year and my wife and I bought season tix. This year she is only doing concert band, not marching so we don’t drive up for games anymore. Youngest daughter is likely headed to WSU so I’ll have to start paying attention to the Cougs. Sigh.
Going back to visit UO on college visits with my daughter really turned me off about the place. The Nike sports branding was just too much and all the Nike money and success has kind of ruined the place and distorted it. Visiting UW it was all about academics on the tour. Visiting UO it was all about sports branding and amenities for rich CA students. Plus watching Phil Knight dump millions into defeating Tina Kotek in the OR governors race has completely soured me on Nike and Nike-U.
Kent
Probably not true because the GOP looks to win OR-5th which has a long coastline on the central OR coast. That race isn’t called yet but the GOP is ahead by about 7,000 votes. That was Blue Dog Kurt Schraeder’s district until he got beat in the Dem primary. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-oregon-us-house-district-5.html
We did our part here in the WA-3rd but Oregon seems to have fucked it up.
kalakal
Oh this makes me happy
Kent
danielx
@Frankensteinbeck:
What was that 11th commandment per Ronald Reagan? Never criticize another Republican, something like that?
It’s not politics any more, it’s theology. Even more so than in the Dubya years, when there were a lot of people who insisted he’d been sent by God and sweet muscular Jeebus. Until he fucked up so bad no one wanted to admit they knew him. Difference is that Trump was a complete fuckup from day one and it didn’t matter how badly he screwed the pooch.
JWR
@WaterGirl:
I was just wondering about that. I mean how hard are they gonna fight when their only remaining option will still be loser stink?
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Kent: The whole place was Nike and Knight-branded (multiple UO buildings featured his name) when I got my BS there in at the turn of the millennium. I returned home to Corvallis and became a Beaver Believer (basketball and baseball, at least).
Kent
I wonder if Trump is going to still announce his 2024 presidential campaign next Tuesday at Mar a Lago as scheduled. Heh!
Anyone got popcorn?
Jackie
From Political Wire:
“Ironic isn’t it? Mitch McConnell stealing a Supreme Court seat cost him his last chance at being Leader McConnell.”
— Former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo), on Twitter.
😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂
LordAvebury
@Kent: As someone who moved into Vancouver a year ago, I absolutely agree with this.
Kent was an unabashed “America Firster” – in fact, in his campaign materials “America First” was more prominent than “Republican”. I don’t know if he had a clue about what that phrase meant in the first half of the 20th century, but he would probably endorse it.
Interestingly, 6 months ago my subdivision had a disturbing number of houses flying MAGA and Confederate flags. Most of them have disappeared….
Another Scott
@a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio): The “AKAL” – Alaska At-Large – seat is expected to go Blue again. Yay Peltola!!
Cheers,
Scott.
kalakal
@Jackie: 😂😂😂
Frankensteinbeck
@danielx:
It still exists, sort of. It’s “Never give Democrats a win of any kind.” It’s eating itself here because the Democrats won, so… who is to blame for this worst of sins?
Jackie
@Kent: He’ll announce it in the wee hours tonight/tomorrow 😂
Then his team will be retracting it all day tomorrow…
Patricia Kayden
@Baud: And Warnock’s win may neutralize Manchin (and Sinema).
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Kent: Nope, it’s true. OR-4 (formerly DeFazio, now Hoyle – yay!) has the coast south of Tillamook county. No coast in OR-5.
Kent
My daughter is the opposite of sporty. Our whole tour at UW was by an Asian-American science major who took us to all the new amazing science buildings and spoke of all the undergrad student research and study opportunities at UW. Not one mention of athletics and there is zero athletic branding or facilities anywhere on the main UW campus, they are all down by the lake.
Our tour guide at UO was a frat boy who took us to all the athletic facilities and the cool new climbing walls, gyms, and cafeterias and talked endlessly about football and basketball games. All the new buildings seemed to be athletic-oriented including the private athlete study hall they built. And the main academic quad seemed to have gotten zero investment in 20 years.
She was very unimpressed by UO and is happy at UW and as a sophomore is working on two separate research teams, one related to African sunbirds and the other is a paleo-botany project about evolution of flowering plants in the PNW.
Kent
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I guess I’m looking at the old OR-5th map then. They must have stripped the coast out of it when the redistricted.
Patricia Kayden
@Kent: I see no reason why Trump wouldn’t go ahead and announce his run for President since in his mind, the only win that matters is his. And he seriously believes that he never lost.
kalakal
There’s going to be a feeding frenzy amongst the GQP as they fight to apportion blame.
I look forward to the FTFNYT telling us why this is bad news for the Dems. Even now crack teams are on their way to Ohio diners
Cacti
They damn near put a Republican in the Governor’s chair.
Kent
Manchin and Sinema aren’t going to matter if the Dem’s don’t keep the House. They never obstructed judges, only legislation. And there won’t be any progressive legislation anyway with a GOP House, only compromise must-pass stuff. But it will mean that Harris can get back to VP stuff and stop breaking ties.
Kent
That was courtesy of Nike and Phil Knight who dropped millions into the independent run of former Dem Betsy Johnson and then later dropped millions into the GOP candidate when Johnson went nowhere.
And also partly the fault of Tina Kotek herself who made it possible as House Majority Leader where she blocked campaign finance reform every time it came up in the Oregon House.
Oregon has some pretty fucked up and incompetent Democratic politics frankly.
Kent
Oh, he probably will but it will give the rest of the GOP leadership massive heartburn since every Trumper on the ballot basically got repudiated except in the deepest red corners of the country. Especially with the Hershel Walker race looming.
So….popcorn!
Yutsano
@Kent:
To be fair, the Cougs just hit bowl eligibility today. So it’s not all bad. And speaking as an alum, if your youngest decided she could handle the isolation of Pullman she’ll do great. Not to mention you guys will be driving through where Jackie, Death Panel Truck*, and I reside, so maybe the opportunity to meet up could happen.
*What happened to him anyway?
Kent
Definitely! There are probably 50+ kids from her HS attending WSU and a bunch of her friends are looking at it. If you can’t get into UW which is getting very tough these days your choices are basically WSU or WWU. No one really goes to CWU or EWU, at least from around here.
She actually loved WSU when we toured. Moreso than WWU which is pretty 1970s concrete but with nice views. The WSU campus is quite pretty and the student amenities are impressive. And our tour guide by chance happened to be a grad of her HS (Camas HS) so they bonded. UW pretty much empties out on weekends since so many kids live near or just go play off-campus in Seattle.
WSU does a very impressive job of student recruitment. It is all about “how can we make it possible for you to attend” while UW is more “you have to do these 16 things to be a competitive applicant and then…who knows. And then if you get in you might not get your preferred major”
I see it for what it is, but my 16 year old is very impressionable and is influenced by those personal touches. And hey, I’m very happy if she goes there and I get to pay in-state tuition so I’m not complaining. I’ll have to grit my teeth and bear it if she decides she wants to go some place like Lewis & Clark or University of Puget Sound that will coast $25K more per year at least.
Darkrose
@Martin: Only 54% counted in CA-7, but Matsui is leading by 66.7%, so I’m feeling pretty good about her continuing to be my rep.
billcinsd
@Kent: PAC-12 got rid of the divisions and it’s the top-2 that go to the championship game. Utah has it’s fate in its hands as they play Oregon and beat USC
Kelly
@Kent: Yep, swapped Lincoln County(Newport) from CD5 to CD4, Deschutes County(Bend) from CD2 to CD5. Polk County went to the new CD6. CD1,5 and 6 get a small slice of the deep blue Portland Metro which is mostly in CD 3. I wish the Oregon Democrats had gone for slightly fatter slices of Great Blue Portland for CD5 and 6. CD5 stops at Woodstock. Move the boundary a little north to Powell and CD5 is much bluer. Stretch CD3 out to The Dallas. Absolutely crazy wingnut Curry should be in hopelessly right wing CD2 instead of reasonably blue CD4.
Martin
@Patricia Kayden: Someone really needs to sue him for violating the 22nd amendment if he files to run on the assertion that he actually won in 2020. Make him argue that he lost.
Martin
@Darkrose: Yeah, CA-07 was called election night. Results + exit polls sealed that one early.
James E Powell
@Kent:
That kind of politics & those kind of Democrats are sprinkled all over the country, unfortunately.
Chris T.
@Kent:
As I live near-ish to WWU and thus have a bit of vested interest (and as the campus doesn’t like random old people wandering in), how is WWU academically?
Kent
Did not realize they dropped the divisions. I still expect both Oregon and USC to win out which would put them both in the championship game. Oregon has Utah at home and Oregon State in Corvallis, neither of which they will look past. USC has UCLA and Notre Dame but only has to beat UCLA to get into the championship game if Oregon beats Utah.
Kent
I think it is the best of the three directional schools in Washington (WWU, CWU, and EWU) and trending upwards due to the spillover of people who couldn’t get into UW and don’t want to attend one of the new suburban branch campuses in Bothell and Tacoma. And want to stay closer to home west of the Cascades. But it still plays second fiddle to the two flagships UW and WSU in terms of facilities and probably academics. My own personal impression is that WWU has some very good individual programs but probably isn’t quite as good across the board in standard academic departments as WSU.
But it is definitely trending upwards compared to say Evergreen which is in a long tailspin. Every year WWU becomes more of a serious academic place and less of a pothead party school that it was in the 70s and 80s.
MobiusKlein
@James E Powell:
I wish Florida had more of those incompetent Ds
Ivan X
@Kent: I chose L&C and I’m grateful my parents made it happen, for what it’s worth. Great teachers there, extremely beautiful campus. Place legit taught me how to think critically and write well, judging from a paper I wrote at the beginning of my freshman year compared to one I wrote my senior year.
GibberJack
@Dan B: Joe Kent looks like a smarmy douchebag.
Kent
I’m a Reed grad so I know what you are talking about. But we are in that middle ground where we don’t qualify for much if any need-based aid but aren’t wealthy enough to just write checks. So cost is a huge factor and although my daughter liked Reed (and Lewis & Clark) I couldn’t see that it was worth paying the extra $50K per year that it would have cost to attend Reed. And I think the undergrad experience at the big state schools has really been improved since the dark ages when we attended such places.
Cptlhill
@Jackie: Hi Jackie! Just delurking to send sone moral support to a fellow “dry-sider” (near Ellensburg). It can be rough here in MAGA-land!
Cptlhill
@Kent: Despite teaching at CWU, I think your assessment of WWU is spot-on!
Ivan X
@Kent: That all makes perfect sense to me. And what private schools cost compared to what I went is insane.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Another Scott: Thanks! That’s great news.
Of course, if the rest of us are tired of Sarah Palin, I can only imagine how Alaskans feel.
mrmoshpotato
@Another Scott: Hooray! And will Caribou Barbie piss off already.
Princess
Noodling around Twitter, I realized something. As some have said here, wisely, Nate Silver predicts nothing. His probabilities can’t get falsified. If he give Maria Perez a 2% chance to win and she does, we’ll, it was in that 2%. So what is his function? He amplifies bad GOP-motivated polls. Look at his last polls for Patty Murray. They’re all way off, they’re all GOP outfits, and they set the narrative.
Martin
@Princess: His work is good *provided* that the polls are being done in good faith. The problem is that with each successive cycle they aren’t. You can’t average good data with garbage and get anything other than garbage.
Even the good polls are increasingly garbage, though. I’m not sure polling can be meaningfully salvaged until we come up with a way to get more reliable responses.
Aziz, light!
@Kent: I went to grad school in Eugene back when Animal House was still a frat house and Robert Cray was playing in a little bar next to campus. Have been a fan ever since. At the time the team was the worst in the conference. Yes the Nike overkill is tiresome and the uniforms are a waking nightmare, but go Ducks!
Geminid
And the Geminid Award for Best Campaign Slogan of 2022 goes to…[drum roll]…
MARY PELTOLA! for “FISH, FAMILY, FREEDOM!”
Will
@Princess: Nate Silver can’t help it if the only people releasing polling for Patty Murray are Republican aligned organizations or groups afraid of looking favorable to Dems. A lot of groups got burned by Dems in 2020 so they either put their thumb on the scale for Republicans out of fear or didn’t even bother doing polling at all.
New Style in Parsons
@Kent: Maybe. But Marie’s overall margin was minuscule and Joe Kent was a truly bad candidate. If JHB decided to return in 2024 she might be able to pull back enough R’s and Independents to win. I agree that the district will see more demographic changes in the next ten years than the previous thirty. But Republicans still win a lot of races within CD3 and the Democrats are going to need to get much stronger here if they are going to speed up the change as much as you suggest, IMHO.
janesays
I’m gonna assume you meant a 219-216 Republican majority at the end of the sentence. That being the case, are you saying the current median projection is 218-217 Republican majority, with a margin of error of only ±1 seat? There are only three real tossup seats left, and therefore, only three possible outcomes? 218-217 D, 218-217 R, or 219-216 R?
Geminid
@New Style in Parsons: It’s possible that as Representative, Perez will win over some Independents who did not vote for her this time, as well as new residents. She sounds like an energetic, talented woman who might hold that seat for a while if she gets past 2024.
Sharice Davids flipped the Kansas 3rd CD in 2018, a wave year. Davids has since won reelection twice, most recently on a gerrymandered map. I think this is because she has won over her district’s residents with her hard work and likeable nature.
Steeplejack
@moonbat:
I didn’t know @cbouzy was the person behind Bot Sentinel! That is an invaluable resource, and I have given them money.
Captain C
@Citizen Alan:
“Some say that the majority Republicans are to blame for the goat rodeo in the House of Representatives. But these three Pennsylvania small businessmen who we randomly found in a diner and are totally not local Republican officials whose small businesses consist of large strings of cash cow franchises and dealerships tell us why that’s not the case.”
Joey Maloney
@El Muneco: I’d be happy with a rule that no district can include more than, say, 110% of the least populous district. Wyoming, the least populous state with 1 rep, is 580K. If all districts had to be about the same size, the House might increase to 550 members or so. Perfectly workable, I would think.
lgerard
I’m assuming that Florida students will be able to “Stand Their Ground” and shoot back
Geminid
A potentially fraught question:
Will a 32 year old auto shop owner, daughter of an immigrant, who flipped a red seat in 2022, get one tenth the national attention received by a 27 year old bartender, also the daughter of an immigrant, who ousted an incumbent in a low turnout primary and went on to win a deep blue district in 2018?
Probably not. But why not?
Cameron
@Geminid: If you’re thinking of AOC, she’s not the daughter of an immigrant, though I agree that outstanding political success won’t draw nearly as much attention as outspoken political views. Not enough juicy controversy to entice Our Liberal Media.
Kristine
@Cameron: In addition, AOC is in NY. We’ve discussed East Coast bias of news organizations before.
Geminid
@Cameron: For some reason I thought Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s father was born in Puerto Rico. Thank you for the correction.
I think that at the time, many people thought that Ms. Ocasio-Cortez represented a progressive insurgency that might be the future of the Democratic party. And the media craves stars, and she had the elements of one, and right in a major media center as well.
I thought that the 40 Democrats who flipped red seats that year were individually as worthy of attention. That was a talented bunch! And in practical terms, they better represented the future of the party, at least if it’s to be a majority. Same goes for Ms. Glusenkamp Perez.
Anyway
@Geminid:
AOC took out one of the House leadership dudes in her primary. That was unexpected and worth some commentary. I am thrilled about Perez’s victory –don’t see any reason to drag AOC in this discussion.
Expletive Deleted
Also a lot of the attention was because of vile attacks from the right, so perhaps we can do better.
Geminid
@Anyway: I am not dragging Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, but rather her star struck fan base in and out of the media. There is a difference.
artem1s
@Timill: The GQP swept the SC in OH. The next SC will approve any map they draw up next year.
Geminid
@Expletive Deleted: Ms. Ocasio-Cortez was a celebrity before those attacks occurred. Their main effect was to make Democrats very protective of her and take personally criticisms of her from other Democrats.
Ken
See, Baud? I told you there were plenty of other F-words for your campaign slogan.
WaterGirl
@TriassicSands: Darrell Issa. Ugh.
lowtechcyclist
@Expletive Deleted:
This. Fox News and all the rest of them were after her from the moment she won that primary, and we know how our ‘mainstream’ media chases whatever it is that the right wing has decided is the topic of the day/week/month/year.
That AOC came out of all that looking good speaks well of her.
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:
The attacks started the moment she won the primary. Before she won the primary, she may have been a local NYC celebrity, and a minor celebrity among those of us who follow politics. But most people wouldn’t have known who she was. Fox News changed all that as soon as she won.
Geminid
I wonder about the sequence you describe. I was not watching Fox News at the time, but my impression is that Rep. Ocasio-Cortez’s critics from the right started tagging her after they saw what a sensation the media and Democrats were making over her.
Wvng
@JaySinWA: It’s not just a spare vote. It’s end to power sharing with GOP, it’s ability to issue subpoenas without GOP votes.
Frankensteinbeck
@Geminid:
a narrative that there is a war going on in the Democratic Party between an extremist Left Wing and a center-right Moderate Wing. They crave Democrats who will shit on the Democratic Party in talk shows and sound bites. AOC and ‘the squad’, are their current justification for this narrative, whether or not it’s deserved.
Remember when the press could not get enough of Elizabeth Warren? It was exactly when they could portray her that way, and ended as soon as they found out that as progressive as she was, she had no problem with the Democratic leadership and they had no problem with her. She dropped to a name they could reference every once in awhile when some economic policy that only the national press thinks is controversial floated through the Democratic Party.
lowtechcyclist
@moonbat:
Wait, is that this guy??
SFAW
@Martin:
That would be fun. And by “fun,” I mean FUN!
SFAW
@Ken:
Baud’s still trying to find a way to get “Fpantsless” included therein.
lowtechcyclist
@Frankensteinbeck:
Maybe I’m remembering wrong, but my recollection is that her coverage faded for the much more mundane reason of her dropping in the polls in the late summer or early fall of 2019, and being supplanted as the #1 challenger to Biden in the upcoming primaries.
Shalimar
@Geminid: AOC was a celebrity before Republicans turned her into their devil-in-waiting for after Pelosi’s retirement, but my view is that 60-70% of her continued relevance is because they demonize her so often. She is the younger Dem they want to paint as the face of the party, for whatever reason.
Shalimar
@lowtechcyclist: Oh, no. He’s going to have to leave Twitter for predicting 2 pickups instead of 1. How will we ever notice with the thousands of other famous names who have left Twitter because Musk sucks?
Shalimar
@Geminid: I think it was both. AOC became a celebrity without any help from Fox. She was young, beautiful, had an inspiring backstory, had unseated a prominent legislative leader with no forewarning, and was proficient and comfortable with social media in a way few elected Dems were at the time.
But it’s also very obvious that Republicans chose her in early 2019 as their new bete-noire and they have been relentless since then.
WaterGirl
@Martin: Except Nate also assigns ratings to polls, and he gave an A+ rating to the awful pro-Republican polling group. Starts with a T but I don’t recall the name.
WaterGirl
@lowtechcyclist: I think he’s talking about when everyone wanted Elizabeth Warren on talk shows BEFORE she was running for senate.
I will always love her for “I’ll save the rocks in my pockets for Republicans” – her response when they tried to bait her to say something bad about Obama for not making her head of her brainchild organization.
J R in WV
@Geminid:
I recently ended our small monthly contribution to AOC, whom I hold in pretty high regard as a person… perhaps slightly less high regard politically…
But she doesn’t really need money from my small pot to contribute.
lowtechcyclist
@Shalimar:
That isn’t what he predicted. Sorry that you can’t read.