Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

“More of this”, i said to the dog.

The next time the wall wtreet journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Americans barely caring about Afghanistan is so last month.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Bark louder, little dog.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Nothing worth doing is easy.

All your base are belong to Tunch.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

A Senator Walker would be an insult to the state and the nation.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 262: The Jubilation Over the Liberation of Kherson Continues

War for Ukraine Day 262: The Jubilation Over the Liberation of Kherson Continues

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The Ukrainians are continuing to both liberate portions of Kherson and celebrate doing so.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today we all feel enthusiastic together. I don’t know if we have at least one person who hasn’t watched the video of our Kherson people greeting the Ukrainian defenders.

Months of Russian occupation, months of the mockery of our people, months of stories that Russia is supposedly there forever… And still, there is a sea of Ukrainian flags on the streets. People did not even think of refusing Ukraine. And the world sees it now. It sees what it means when Ukrainians meet their own people. It sees what the unity of Ukrainians means. And it sees why we should liberate our entire land from the invaders.

We will see many more such greetings. In those cities and villages that are still under occupation. We don’t forget anyone, we won’t leave anyone. Thanks to our defense operations and diplomacy, we will definitely reach our state border – all sections of the internationally recognized border of Ukraine.

As of this evening, the defense forces have won back control in more than 60 settlements of Kherson region, the police have started taking stabilization measures. Stabilization measures are also ongoing in Kherson itself.

Everywhere in the liberated territory, our bomb-disposal experts have a lot of work to do. Almost 2,000 explosive items have already been removed – mines, trip wires, and unexploded ammunition.

Before fleeing from Kherson, the occupiers destroyed all critical infrastructure – communication, water supply, heat, electricity… Ruscists everywhere have the same goal – mockery of people as much as possible. But we will restore everything. Believe me. Although it takes time for this, it is already clear to everyone that the outcome will be ours, the Ukrainian one.

It is very important now to tell all Kherson residents to be careful and not try to independently check any buildings and objects left by the occupiers. Please, if you have a connection with the townspeople, be sure to pass this on to them.

There are ten groups of bomb-disposal experts working in Kherson, the police are working, and there are various units of the defense forces. Today, unfortunately, one of our sappers was injured during demining of the administrative building. Therefore, please, dear citizens of Kherson, be careful and inform the police or rescuers about any suspicious objects you see.

The same concerns residents of other settlements in the liberated territory. Please remain vigilant of your own safety. It is very important.

Separately, today I want to address all our military personnel who are in other areas of the front, to all those who take care of our security at the borders, to all those who defend Ukraine in the air and at sea, to all those who work for defense in the rear regions.

This success of ours in the south became possible thanks to the fact that all our defenders honorably perform their tasks. The words of thanks that our defenders in Kherson region are hearing now are words of thanks to all of you. To everyone who fights for Ukraine, who works for our victory and who, at their level, helps and achieves the results our state needs.

And especially these are words of thanks to those who endure the Russian attacks on Donetsk region – it’s just hell there. There are extremely brutal battles there every day. But our units defend themselves bravely, withstand the terrible pressure of the occupiers, and maintain our defense lines. It is very important. Thanks to the strong defense there, in Donetsk region, we can conduct offensive operations in other directions. I thank all our soldiers who defend Ukraine in these particularly tough battles. Pavlivka, Maryinka, Pervomaiske, Avdiyivka…

The first and second battalions of the 36th Separate Brigade of Marines, the 79th Separate Assault Brigade, the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, the 68th Separate Hunter Brigade, the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, the 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade and the 55th Zaporizka Sich Separate Artillery Brigade, which supports everyone there… Thank you, soldiers, for your courage, for your bravery!

And I join the thanks and wishes that have already been heard from the people of Kherson by our fighters of the 28th and 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigades and the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, our intelligence officers, our fighters of the Special Operations Forces and national guardsmen. Well done. Thank you all for the brilliant performance of tasks for the liberation of Kherson!

It will be the same in Henichesk and Melitopol. We will also come to all our cities and villages of Donbas. We will definitely see how people with Ukrainian flags, which they keep there, will meet the Ukrainian forces in Crimea, and there will be hundreds of them on the streets on the day of liberation.

I thank everyone who fights and works for Ukrainian victory! I’m thankful to everyone in the world who helps us so much!

Eternal glory to all those who gave their lives for their native Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Kherson:

As I predicted based on his statements to Shoigu, Surovikin blew the dam!

These people are nuts. And you can’t negotiate with nuts!

The Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Foundation has released a new video report/documentary on General Surovikin:

Gin&Tonic sent me the link to this thread by USAID Administrator Power:

As I’ve noted repeatedly I’m not a huge fan of Sullivan. I think he’s far, far too cautious. But these statements to the press gaggle on Air Force One are spot on! He nailed it.

Break

Before we get to what you’re all really here for – Patron –  I want to address the mess I and several others made of the comments on Thursday night/Friday morning. I’m not going to get into who wrote what when. I just want to say I’m not upset with anyone over what happened and since I’m sure I pissed some of you off I apologize for snapping at a couple of our regular commenters. No one has to accept the apology, and I’m not going to make any excuses or provide any rationalizations for my comments, but I did just want to take a moment and 1) not let this linger, 2) make it very clear that anyone who feels like they can’t comment who had been is welcome to come back and continue to comment, 3) and since the updates are mine, take responsibility for letting things get out of hand on Thursday night/Friday morning – I should’ve just gone to bed. I want to especially apologize for snapping at Another Scott.

I think that’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

We start with Patron bringing us sad, though not unexpected news. Krym was unable to recover from the effect of shell shock and died today:

He was a the most faithful of dogs. May he and his humans meet on the far side of the rainbow bridge!

And a new, and fortunately not sad, video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Усім кавуновий лизь!👅🍉 #славаукраїні #славазсу #песпатрон

♬ Jazz masterpiece “As time goes by” covered by a Jazz violinist by profession(962408) – ricca

The caption machine translates as:

Watermelon lick everyone!👅🍉 #SlavaUkraini #Celebrate #PatrontheDog

Open thread!

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  • Adam L Silverman
  • Alison Rose
  • Anoniminous
  • Another Scott
  • ARoomWithAMoose
  • Bex
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  • Carlo Graziani
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  • lashonharangue
  • lowtechcyclist
  • OverTwistWillie
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    79Comments

    2. 2.

      Alison Rose

      Oh my dear Lord, that first video clip made me start crying again. But they’re happy tears! But honestly, trying to imagine the utter relief these folks are feeling…it hits you right in the heart.

      Also, Ukrainian grandmas are the best grandmas. I absolutely want to be like them when I’m old. When the one lady said about the burning tank that it was beautiful, “only it burns too little” I CACKLED.

      I am so proud of everyone in that country.

      Thank you as always, Adam.

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Raoul Paste

      Those men marching in that “nuke Washington” parade look like prime draft candidates.  Hell, they are able to march, what more is needed?

      Reply
    4. 4.

      Freemark

      @lowtechcyclist: Must be a Twitter issue because I’m having the same problem. The one with the kneeling grandmother seems to be severely degraded. I’ve tried restarting the video but the blurring just gets worse.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Dan B

      Boy was this an ‘opening the waterworks’ plus heaving chest with both happy and sad tears.  It would be wonderful to get a message through to Ukraine that there are people on a blog based in the US who are completely emotionally tied to Ukraine’s fortunes, their successes and tribulations.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      JanieM

      FWIW in figuring out the problem, I’m not having any trouble with the videos. Have played several of them, both a few minutes ago and again just now.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      HinTN

      Adam, I wasn’t there (because I’m an old and hit the hay early) so I can only say that in earlier times I’ve been party to some god damned real fisticuffs here and jackals get over it. John set the rules a long time ago and they hold today. Say what you think; be prepared for disagreement. Thanks to all who have strong opinions and aren’t afraid to voice them.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      Anoniminous

      I was going to stop posting videos from Kherson but can’t resist with this one. Especially the poster at the end.

      Can someone tell me what the poster says?

      Reply
    11. 11.

      lashonharangue

      Thanks Adam. Very emotional scenes. What are the flags the marchers are carrying in Moscow?  Do they represent a particular faction among the hardliners?

      Reply
    15. 15.

      CarolPW

      The death of the faithful dog is small change in the overall picture, but he is a perfect representation of the loss that has been inflicted on too much of Ukraine. The only thing I can do is donate and cry, so I do both.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      Carlo Graziani

      Sullivan’s remarks do indeed say everything that needs to be said on the subject of a negotiated end to the war. Any journalist who writes another story about the US pressuring Ukraine into a settlement is either illiterate or in bad faith.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      Adam L Silverman

      I do not understand why it is so hard to find a long sleeve t-shirt in royal blue, navy, or black with the tryzub on the left breast. Even better if the Ukrainian flag was on the left shoulder.

      Reply
    25. 25.

      Carlo Graziani

      What is known about the extent of the damage to the dam? Is the dam itself in fact “blown” and the plain below flooding, or is only the superstructure holding the bridge destroyed, but some water retention capacity still in place?

      It wouldn’t make much sense for the Russians to flood their own escape route, after all.

      Reply
    27. 27.

      Dan B

      @CarolPW: The broken spirit of that beautiful dog is more potent than all the numbers and statistics.  The photo of him motionless in the rubble of his family’s home was heartbreaking.

      Reply
    28. 28.

      Gin & Tonic

      Note that in many of these videos (there are lots circulating, not just those linked above) the locals, especially the older ones, are speaking Russian, not Ukrainian. But they are tearfully welcoming the Ukrainian soldiers. Really demonstrates the bullshit basis of the argument that Russian-speakers want Russian nationality. That grandma whom Alison Rose calls out, who says “how beautiful” at the burning tank, says it in Russian, and the soldier replies to her in Russian.

      Reply
    30. 30.

      zhena gogolia

      @lashonharangue: The signs are about hitting “the center where the decisions are made,” Washington. “As martyrs we will end up in paradise, and they will just croak [word used for animals dying].” I have no idea who these people are.

      Reply
    31. 31.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Carlo Graziani:

      https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/new-damage-major-dam-near-kherson-after-russian-retreat-maxar-satellite-2022-11-11/

      Nov 11 (Reuters) – Significant new damage to the major Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine can be seen following Russia’s withdrawal from nearby Kherson city, U.S. satellite imagery company Maxar said on Friday.

      “Satellite images this morning … reveal significant new damage to several bridges and the Nova Kakhovka dam in the aftermath of the Russian retreat from Kherson across the Dnipro river,” Maxar said in a statement.

      It said sections of the northern extent of the dam and sluice gates had been “deliberately destroyed”.

      Reply
    34. 34.

      Cameron

      Agree that the “nuke Washington” crew in Russia are nuts, although I don’t think that they’re quite as nuts as the “nuke Washington” crew in the USA.

      Reply
    40. 40.

      Whomever

      One of the big things I have learned from this conflict is NEVER EVER get on the wrong side of a Ukrainian Grandmother.

      Reply
    41. 41.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Adam L Silverman: @Another Scott: I think what this may mean is that the Russians damaged the electricity-generating infrastructure at the dam (as a scorched-earth measure, because, you know, Russians will Russian), without necessarily releasing all the water retained by the dam.

      Reply
    42. 42.

      Tom Levenson

      Off topic, but it seems as if Cortez-Mastro has won.

      Next up: Georgia.

       

      ETA: I see David has a post up to this effect. 

      Reply
    45. 45.

      geg6

      @Whomever:

      Seriously.  One of my mother’s editors at the local newspaper where she worked was Ukrainian and he used to joke about his “scary” grandmother.  And we all laughed and thought he was kidding.  I met her once while we were both visiting our relatives at work and she was this sweet little old lady (and I mean little…maybe 4’11” at most) who spoke a very strongly accented English.  I now totally understand what he was talking about.

      Reply
    58. 58.

      Kattails

      Adam, I didn’t catch last night’s post until tonight.  Do you have an attribution for the very beautiful calligraphy piece? Thanks.

      Reply
    60. 60.

      Carlo Graziani

      The NYT has an article (gift link) on the Ukrainians’ avowed intention to continue campaigning without letup throughout the winter, keeping the initiative, and keeping the Russians on the back foot. There’s a good deal of speculation concerning where they may strike next, including by my favorite Twitter-based computer cartographer-cum-pfantasist, who thinks they’re going to Melitopol. Other notable entries are  “fuggedaboutit, they’re too exhausted and need rest until Spring, and it’s too muddy anyway,” and “Bakhmut”, presumably since there’s a raging fight in progress there anyway.

      Since anyone can enter for free at the cost of merely being wrong, I’ll toss in an entry that seems unexamined so far. I think the UA is planning to take advantage of its interior lines of communication — again — and load forces freed from the struggle around Kherson onto trains so as to rush them to Luhansk oblast before the Russians can get there, concentrating them between Svatove and Kreminna, and driving a thrust at Starobilsk intended to finally sever the last rail supply line from Belgorod. If they succeed, the Russian offensives in the East, including the one in Bakhmut, should suddenly go slack.

      It should be possible, despite the mud, because there’s a decent road network, and a window of opportunity to bring a lopsided numerical advantage to bear, while the Russians are trying to catch up. And the UA doesn’t necessarily need Starobilsk itself, since UA possession/destruction of any part of that rail line north of the city is game over.

      Reply
    62. 62.

      Kattails

      @Adam L Silverman: I thought I’d seen it before. So well done. That kind of layout is a stinker, every letter is at a different angle, ascenders and descenders (t’s and g’s for example) want to get tangled, and you still need to maintain an even spacing. I am talking technical aside from the concept.

      Reply
    63. 63.

      way2blue

      @Freemark:

      Yep.  Didn’t realize before that that was her grandson rushing across the street to hug her.  These videos are so raw and so basic.  Touching that hidden spot behind the eyes.  And so uplifting…

      Reply
    66. 66.

      dr. luba

      @Whomever: My cousin Myrosia lives in Lviv.  Her mother Zoya moved there a few years ago from the village, and lives down the street from.  She is a great-grandmother.

      Myrosia says that, in the early months of the war, her mother stopped by to visit.  She found her with a bottle of water and packet of huge garbage bags (there’s a market outside their apartment bloc), sharpening the shovel she had left at their flat.

      Myrosia asked her what she was up to.  Well, she’d already sharpened her axe.  She was preparing for the Russians–the axe to kill them with, the shovel to bury them with.  And the huge garbage bags?  Well, you can’t just put them in the ground without a shroud; we’re civilized, after all.

      Reply
    69. 69.

      Carlo Graziani

      @dr. luba: I wonder what became of that indomitable old lady near Kyiv (I think it was) who was videorecorded walking up to a Russian soldier in the first week or so of the war, asking him why the hell he and his pals didn’t haul their unwelcome asses out of her country (I’m paraphrasing). When he tried to brush her off in some embarrassment, she proceeded to give him a sunflower seed and told him to put it in the breast pocket of his uniform jacket, so that when his body was fertilizing Ukrainian soil it would at least push up a sunflower. Zero, I mean zero fucks given.

      Reply
    72. 72.

      Tony G

      @Carlo Graziani: Excellent analysis, as always.  One question that I have: When the real winter begins and the mud becomes frozen ground, will that make it easier for Ukraine to launch a new offensive?  Thanks.

      Reply
    73. 73.

      Geminid

      @Tony G: The questions I have are, will Russian troops patrol in winter conditions. Will they stand watch?

      I’ve read accounts of the havoc wreaked by ski-mounted Finnish troops on Russian invaders in early 1940, and I bet Ukrainians have too. I wonder if they are importing skis and fabricating snow shoes.

      Reply
    75. 75.

      Tony G

      @Geminid: That’s a good point.  The Russian Army has proven itself to be inept in any weather.  That will probably get worse when harsh winter weather begins.

      Reply
    76. 76.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Tony G: I don’t really have long term strategy insight to offer, for the winter or for 2023, that are much better than the <shrug emoji>-grade stuff that’s circulating now.

      The only possibility I can see that doesn’t seem to be on a lot of bingo cards is this rapid exploitation one with a very quick expiration date. It relies essentially on the Ukrainian advantage of interior communications, a solid rail network, a still in-being, battle-ready force ready for more orc blood coming out of Kherson (and not too depleted from that fight), a specific, high-value strategic objective attainable in a violent, decisive thrust, the ability to quickly concentrate a disproportionate force advantage on a relatively short front, and the ability to move that force up the main and subsidiary roads towards and northwards of Starobilsk, brushing Russian resistance aside before reinforcements can come up from the south. SOF can presumably assist by sabotage of Russian-controlled southern rail transport, at least insofar as equipment and ammo supply is concerned.

      There are many uncertainties and risks there as you can see, and this is only a guess at the picture that the Ukrainian General Staff is really looking at. However, as I said, the expiration date is relatively short, and we should know whether this is what is in fact going to happen within two weeks at the outside, I would guess, so by late November.

      Reply
    77. 77.

      The Pale Scot

      Climate change. The ground didn’t freeze last year, that’s why the Kyiv offensive stalled, the orcs had to stay on the roads

      Reply
    78. 78.

      Carlo Graziani

      @The Pale Scot: Certainly climate change has made mud season more hazardous to operations, although one should be a bit cautious — “climate change” is more associated with weather instability and unpredictability than with systematic warming. A polar vortex disruption phenomenon similar to what we had in North America in 2021 and 2020, with breakup of the circulatory barrier confining arctic air leading to a river of said freezing air pouring south, could turn seas of mud into concrete roads in about a day. There’s no telling if and when that could happen.

      On the subject of the Russian stalled Kyiv offensive: it’s always hazardous to cite the “one main cause” for such failures, of course. I do have a favorite, though, and it’s not mud. This great paper on Russian logistical practice starts out by pointing to serious flaws in how STAVKA integrates logistical planning into its operational planning process — basically logistics is a second-class stakeholder, only coming in to the process after objectives, forces, and operations have been specified, and incorporated essentially as requisitions, with no say as to how their practical requirements might shape operations.

      In the case of the Kyiv offensive, according to the authors, the likely explanation for that vast motorized column that was paralyzed on the road to the city for weeks is the following: from an analysis of the vehicles composing the column, the authors conclude that it was likely a reduced MTS (Material-Technical Supply) brigade escorted by a mechanized brigade…

      …intended to protect a planned logistics base at the Antonov airport, itself intended to serve as a tactical distribution hub for the next stage of the operation. The convoy halted because it had nowhere to go. It stopped to wait for new orders from the operational command, who in turn waited for orders from the general staff. Once stalled, the convoy became a sitting duck.

      The convoy “had nowhere to go” because the fragile, badly-planned initial coup-de-main to decapitate the Ukrainian government and replace it with a pro-Russian administration failed, and everything else downstream depended on the initial success of that plan — including the seizure of the airport.

      That paper is full of gems, by the way, and even should their theory of the Kyiv convoy be incorrect, it is readable and well worth the time.

      Reply
    79. 79.

      The Pale Scot

      Looking forward to reading the paper. Didn’t mean to suggest that was the only factor. But I think that if a Vortex does happen, their vehicles will be just as incapacitated by the cold because there is no compressive system of maintenance. I doubt they are using modern lubricants so they will have to keep the running the motors running 24/7

      I wasted the day watching what I would call UKR Trad,

      A list of “Oi u Luzi Chervona Kalyna ” versions, and Khrystyna Soloviy’s “Ya tvoya zbroya (I’m your weapon)”

      Reply

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