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You are here: Home / Open Threads / Shot/Chaser

Shot/Chaser

by @heymistermix.com|  November 13, 20223:39 pm| 105 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

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Youngkin’s signature red vest didn’t deliver big wins for GOP nominees

Of the 15 states where Youngkin traveled to stump for GOP candidates, four saw clear Republican victories. Three of those were already bright red — Nebraska, Oklahoma and South Dakota — while the fourth was Georgia, where Gov. Brian Kemp led all summer.

Nine — Colorado, Connecticut, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, Oregon and Wisconsin — were losses for Republicans. And the remaining two — Arizona and Nevada — are close contests in which Democratic candidates are within reach of victory.

Glenn, you don’t have to put on your red vest. Those days are over. Told you once I won’t tell you again — it’s a bad way.

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Reader Interactions

105Comments

  1. 1.

    hueyplong

    November 13, 2022 at 3:44 pm

    Looks to me like it was Costa putting on the red light.

  2. 2.

    SpaceUnit

    November 13, 2022 at 3:46 pm

    Ouch.  That’s gotta sting.

  3. 3.

    Lady WereBear

    November 13, 2022 at 3:50 pm

    fortunately i don’t mind having “Roxanne” run through my head on loop.

  4. 4.

    Elizabelle

    November 13, 2022 at 3:58 pm

    Roxanne provided more social value.

  5. 5.

    Yutsano

    November 13, 2022 at 3:59 pm

    Along those lines: J-Rub is shrill in the most giddy way possible.

    (Gift article because it’s a really good read.)

  6. 6.

    Mo MacArbie

    November 13, 2022 at 4:00 pm

    @Lady WereBear: Now that’s what I call tone policing.

  7. 7.

    lowtechcyclist

    November 13, 2022 at 4:00 pm

    Should be ‘Youngkin’ instead of ‘Glenn.’ You need two syllables there.

  8. 8.

    Another Scott

    November 13, 2022 at 4:02 pm

    BlueVirginia.US:

    […]

    So fortunately, the vast majority of the far-right extremists Youngkin campaigned for lost their elections (hopefully, that will include Kari Lake, who currently trails Democrat Katie Hobbs) – and thank goodness, or our democracy would be in truly grave danger. But that doesn’t even come close to absolving Glenn Youngkin of personal, moral and practical responsibility for doing everything he could to try and elect these anti-democracy extremists.

    Now, sure, part of why Youngkin did this was out of cynical, calculated political ambition, namely his burning desire to be president (which is highly unlikely to ever happen), and his awareness that the only way to accomplish this goal is to win the nomination of a radicalized, Trumpist Republican Party. But the fact is, Youngkin COULD HAVE made another choice, such as the one Rep. Liz Cheney made, which was to stand on principle and specifically to stand up for American democracy, our constitution, our values and ideals.

    In the end, disgracefully, Youngkin’s cynical, ambition-driven calculations led him to the course of action and conclusion that somehow it was worth throwing our democracy, constitution, etc. into the trash heap in order to advance his own political career. And yes, in its own way, Youngkin’s amoral, craven approach is even more appalling than if you actually BELIEVE the “Big Lie,” as the Amanda Chases of the world truly appear to do. But regardless of what he actually believes, the fact is that Youngkin relentlessly campaigning against our democracy in 2022 was a conscious CHOICE he made, even as he was strongly urged by Liz Cheney not to do so. And no, that choice should never be forgotten – or forgiven – EVER.

    +1

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  9. 9.

    dmsilev

    November 13, 2022 at 4:05 pm

    Wasn’t Nevada called for the GOP? That’s one, I guess.

    More broadly, how on Earth would Youngkin survive a Republican primary? He couldn’t even win a primary in his own state; the Party there switched to a insiders-dominated caucus because they were pretty sure an overt loon would have won a regular primary vote.

  10. 10.

    divF

    November 13, 2022 at 4:06 pm

    @Yutsano: There’s been an ongoing discussion as to whether Rubin would revert to her neo-con roots if the GQP ever reverted to sanity. This quote from the article indicates that she has had a real conversion.

    Fourth, younger voters have learned to show up at midterm elections, boding well for the health of democracy and progressive values.

    “progressive values” says she is not going back.

  11. 11.

    Ken

    November 13, 2022 at 4:08 pm

    If Youngkin is really unlucky, TFG will add him to the list of people who made TFG’s hand-picked best ever candidates lose.

  12. 12.

    oldgold

    November 13, 2022 at 4:10 pm

    After Tuesday, when I expect Trump will announce his ‘24 presidential candidacy, in an attempt to thwart both DeSantis and Garland, Republican pols are going to be where Martha and the Vandellas long ago warned was a perilous place to be.

    “Nowhere to run to baby, Nowhere to hide,I got Nowhere to run to baby, Nowhere to hide,It’s not love I’m runnin’ from, Just the heartbreak I know will come.”

    m.youtube.com/watch?v=RQRIOKvR2WM

  13. 13.

    jackmac

    November 13, 2022 at 4:17 pm

    Youngkin didn’t come any where near Illinois, wisely avoiding the obvious loser stink surrounding Republican gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey who was smacked around by incumbent Democratic  Gov. J.B. Pritzker. Dem candidates put on a clinic, with statewide nominees beating their respective GOP foes by double digits, increasing their lead in the Illinois General Assembly and winning 13 of 17 congressional races.

  14. 14.

    Another Scott

    November 13, 2022 at 4:17 pm

    @dmsilev:

    The VA GQP learned their Uncle Joe aphorisms very well:

    I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this—who will count the votes, and how.

    Youngkin was trying to collect chits for future support. Insiders write the primary rules, and let people know whether they would be welcome to run or not. For them, it’s not about who shows up on primary / caucus / convention day – the choices are made long before then. The plebes just ratify the results, good and hard.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  15. 15.

    cain

    November 13, 2022 at 4:18 pm

    @oldgold: They’ll going to get pressured to support him from their base. It’s gonna kill them because once again Trump is leading them off the precipice and into a clown show below.

    They’ll also be claiming that the DOJ can’t possibly prosecute a possible candidate for president! Hell, in that case Hillary should run as a Republican!

  16. 16.

    PaulB

    November 13, 2022 at 4:19 pm

    @Ken:  He kinda has, at least to the point of reminding him to be subservient. Earlier this week, Virginia’s Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, said that she would not support Trump in 2024. Trump’s response, on Truth Social, natch, was not to Earle-Sears, but to Youngkin:

    Young Kin (now that’s an interesting take. Sounds Chinese, doesn’t it?) in Virginia couldn’t have won without me. I Endorsed him, did a very big Trump Rally for him telephonically, got MAGA to Vote for him – or he couldn’t have come close to winning. But he knows that, and admits it. Besides, having a hard time with the Dems in Virginia – But he’ll get it done!

  17. 17.

    Brent

    November 13, 2022 at 4:19 pm

    @divF: I have seen that stat about young voters quoted in quite a few places.  And I suppose it is an improvement (although youth participation was actually higher in 2018) but 27% still seems really low to me.  I mean if we could get it to like 40% then we could dominate politically and really move the center of the electorate to a far more progressive space.  Honestly we could begin serious work on making the US and the world a better place.

    But of course,  many have tried and failed to get the youth to take voting seriously.  This offers a glimmer of hope at least and thats not nothing.

  18. 18.

    Martin

    November 13, 2022 at 4:21 pm

    CA early update: No new calls, a little bit of count.

    CA-03: – 6.0 [* ] (open seat) [79,188]
    CA-09: +12.6 [* ] (D incumbent) [44,513]
    CA-13: – 0.2 [* ] (open seat) [39,613]
    CA-21: + 9.2 [* ] (D incumbent) [44,710]
    CA-22: – 5.0 [* ] (R incumbent) [26,799]
    CA-27: -10.8 [* ] (R incumbent) [61,342]
    CA-41: – 1.4 [-0.2] (R incumbent) [71,468]
    CA-45: – 7.4 [+0.2] (R incumbent) [77,509]
    CA-47: + 2.6 [+0.2] (D incumbent) [107,687]
    CA-49: + 4.6 [+0.4] (D incumbent) [120,197]

    No new data from CA-03, -09, -13, -21, -22, -27. Looks like Sat counts from socal showed up after state workers went home for the day so they’re showing up today. CA-41 is slowly trending the wrong way. Without more insight into what kinds of ballots are being counted, can’t say the degree to which this is becoming unrecoverable for D.

    CA-45, -47, and -49 all saw small gains. Not a lot of ballots counted though. I suspect -47 and -49 are close to getting called because they’ve never been behind and are trending the right way. -45 still has a LOT of ground for Dems to make up, and I’m still skeptical they can do it.

    Seat counting impact: Per CNN, Dems need to win 14 of the remaining 21 uncalled national races. One is CA-34 which D v D, so that’s guaranteed D. So 13 of 20. The GOP needs to win 7 of 20. 10 of the 20 are above. Dems are leading in 4 of them, GOP in 6.

    Dems leading in AK-1, AZ-1, CO-8, ME-2, NM-2, OR-6, plus the 4 above are 10. The GOP is leading in AZ-6, CO-3, NY-22, and OR-5 plus the 6 above. Dems need to reverse the tide in 4 of these races that the GOP are winning. CA-13 is close with about half the vote still to count. CA-41 is also close but trending the wrong way and also with about half the vote still to count. CA-03 had the D leading in early vote, with about half still to count. CA-22 still has 60% to count and saw a big swing back in favor of the Dem yesterday. Incumbency doesn’t really mean a whole lot in terms of reading the voters because the redisricting really moved borders a lot – it only helps us for name recognition, fundraising, benefits to the incumbent. It’s going to be VERY close.

    Again, the CA data is a bit of a mess. There’s no statewide uncounted update for 3 days, mainly due to the holiday and weekend. That count tends to go out from counties and somewhat random times. Not all counties are working on the holiday, on Saturday. Not everything is ticking at the state SOS office. So when I do have count, I don’t have the scope of what isn’t counted, or the reverse, etc. Kinda having to just vibe on this one. Hopefully things get a bit more in order starting tomorrow night.

    A personal PSA here: There’s no reason to not have good data set publication and documentation. It’s pretty easy to do, and when you do it, you make your own lives easier so I really wish I could run roughhouse over these counties and the SOS and fix their shit. On the other hand, we know this will be sorted out soon, so who really gives a shit if we have it today or tomorrow? I just like doing this.

  19. 19.

    Tony G

    November 13, 2022 at 4:26 pm

    So Youngkin is bragging about the fact that he supported a lot of losing candidates?  It must be a modern manifestation the “lost cause” mythology  (in Virginia and other treasonous states).  We’re proud of losing!  Or something.  Can’t figure these people out.

  20. 20.

    James E Powell

    November 13, 2022 at 4:28 pm

    It never ceases to amaze & appall me how easy it is for right-wingers to get the political press to fall in love with them. George W Bush buys a ranch & starts wearing jeans. Scott Brown with his pick-up & barn coat. And now this asshole & his fleece. I cannot throw up enough.

  21. 21.

    Martin

    November 13, 2022 at 4:31 pm

    @Brent: The lower 18-29 turnout is mitigated by the much stronger support for Ds from them.

    Basically, the strength of 18-29 D support zeroed out the 65+ R support. Zoomers fought boomers to a draw. Millennials and Gen X similarly fought to a draw or a slight win for millennials.

    Getting more 18-29 turnout would be great, but that’s unavoidable. Provided that voters turning 18 vote like zoomers, they’ll rapidly overtake the 65+ that die (sorry, but that’s the dynamic). White christians are projected to only make up 40% of the electorate in 2024, vs over half in 2008 when we elected Obama.

    Each passing year makes this demographically better for Dems as things currently stand. This is why latinos are a topic – they are young as a population. If the GOP can sway them, well, that changes the dynamics a lot. Dems need to not treat them as immigration single issue voters because they aren’t. Hell, a lot of them don’t give a shit about immigration. Many of them have been in this country longer than my family has.

  22. 22.

    Stacy

    November 13, 2022 at 4:32 pm

    @Tony G: His bragging ad was the day before the election he was so sure of the red wave.

  23. 23.

    Kay

    November 13, 2022 at 4:33 pm

    Glenn Greenwald
    @ggreenwald
    ·6h
    Is it at all strange that a brand new and opaque voting system was implemented in the name of COVID; people are trained to think it’s normal to take not days but weeks to count votes; and candidates are required to concede when the media says so, not when the votes are counted?

    This Right wing influencer is wrong. It has always taken weeks to count every vote. If the race is not close they call it before all the votes are counted. Then they count the rest of the votes.
    When poorly informed people with no common sense say this, educate them. They aren’t watching Florida count votes because Florida wasn’t close and they called it.

  24. 24.

    Tony G

    November 13, 2022 at 4:35 pm

    @Stacy: I see.  So he’s just an over-confident idiot.  Doing the touchdown dance when he’s only at the 20 yard line.

  25. 25.

    Kay

    November 13, 2022 at 4:35 pm

    Media could actually help with this. Go to Florida and report that Florida is counting overseas ballots or provisionals or whatever and no one is payng any attention to that because the races have been called. Explain to people that this new Right wing conspiracy theory is nonsense or the overpaid Substackers will spread it and we’ll have a whole new set of election problems.

  26. 26.

    $8 blue check mistermix

    November 13, 2022 at 4:41 pm

    @Kay: I don’t know if you saw Daniel Dale’s response, but it’s pretty good:  twitter.com/ddale8/status/1591862000879276032

    It’s also funny as hell because the first sentence is:  “I always regret engaging with this gentleman, but…this is all fiction.”  Just how anyone who engages with Glenn ends up feeling.

  27. 27.

    dmsilev

    November 13, 2022 at 4:44 pm

    @Kay: Why does anyone care about concessions? Those speeches carry no legal weight; if you concede and then the remainder of the count puts you ahead, you win.

    Also, early/absentee has been a thing for a long time. COVID just made it vastly more popular is all.

    In short, Greenwald is Greenwalding again.

  28. 28.

    Stacy

    November 13, 2022 at 4:45 pm

    @Tony G: Yep that’s our Glenn. Trump’s going to eat him for lunch.

  29. 29.

    Cmorenc

    November 13, 2022 at 4:46 pm

    Given the critical role of increased young voter participation and their D partisan lean, expect the GOP to try to erect as many practical obstacles as they can to inhibit college students from voting in their college location instead of their original home (parental) residence, likely through voter ID requirements specifying that the address on their drivers license match their claimed residence, and/or limiting voting locations to sites inconveniently burdensome to students ( yes they deliberately tried this in boone nc, where App State is located.

  30. 30.

    Baud

    November 13, 2022 at 4:47 pm

    @Kay:

    Trump/Greenwald 2024!

  31. 31.

    Martin

    November 13, 2022 at 4:50 pm

    @Kay: Florida 2000 finished counting Dec 12. This is conveniently memory-holed by everyone who benefitted from that result.

    The difference with, say, CA is that the process is vastly more orderly. No measuring which fraction of a hole was punched out – we call the voter and ask them ‘it’s not clear what you intended here. Which candidate do you want to vote for’ and then count it. It’s slow, but it’s not bullshit like *every* 2000 election count in the United States was.

  32. 32.

    Martin

    November 13, 2022 at 4:52 pm

    @dmsilev: Concessions are critical.

    Democracy is 100% reliant on the losing party admitting that they lost and telling their supporters that their competitor is the rightful authority in that district/state/etc. Without that, there’s no faith in the process and democracy fails. It might take a while to fail, but it will fail.

  33. 33.

    Martin

    November 13, 2022 at 4:52 pm

    @Cmorenc: Oh, they’re already demanding the voting age raise to 21. They aren’t subtle about their motivations here.

    I’ll note that growing vote by mail solves the college student suppression problem. Every  college student I know studying outside of CA had no problem receiving and returning a CA ballot.

  34. 34.

    topclimber

    November 13, 2022 at 4:55 pm

    @Stacy: Time for ranked voting in all GOP primaries. Or some other way the establishment sticks it to Trump.

    Last primary they decided there would be no primary. So they can do whatever they want, a la Youngkin’s nomination. Who says Republican politics is dull?

  35. 35.

    Scout211

    November 13, 2022 at 5:02 pm

    @Martin: Agree. At least it mattered in the past.

    However, when the loser refuses to concede (Mastriano),  Josh Shapiro had a solid response when asked about it on CNN.

    “I mean, who cares if he calls, right?” Shapiro told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union.”

    “He doesn’t pick the winner, the people pick the winner,” Shapiro continued. “And in a resounding way, they made clear that they wanted me to lead this commonwealth forward.”

  36. 36.

    West of the Rockies

    November 13, 2022 at 5:07 pm

    @Kay:

    Greenwald and Sullivan are such vile hypocrites.  They clearly believe themselves to be the smartest cats in the box.  Who comprises their readership? My guess is smug, self-loathing prigs.

  37. 37.

    CarolPW

    November 13, 2022 at 5:20 pm

    @Martin: My niece in Turkey had no trouble returning her CA ballot.

  38. 38.

    WaterGirl

    November 13, 2022 at 5:22 pm

    i hate all these Republicans.  If they didn’t lie, cheat and steal, they would have nothing.

  39. 39.

    JPL

    November 13, 2022 at 5:30 pm

    @WaterGirl: MSM is helping them blame trump, rather than their policies.

  40. 40.

    Kay

    November 13, 2022 at 5:33 pm

    @Martin:

    David Becker @beckerdavidj 

    In fact, Ohio has over 180K ballots still uncounted as of today. That’s more than Nevada and about what’s left in Arizona. The only reason we’re not talking about OH is that the margins were wider.

    Idiots have to have this explained to them every single election for the last 20 years.

    It’s on the OH Sec of State website, but online influencers are too lazy to do the slightest research.

  41. 41.

    piratedan

    November 13, 2022 at 5:34 pm

    @West of the Rockies: Greenwald is the classic sea lion, I stopped thinking he was arguing in good faith about the time we were in Obama’s first term.  He’s been coasting on his supposed laurels for two decades now and like much of what’s wrong with media opinion makers, he’s never called to account for the myriad times he’s been wrong.

    To be fair, media opinion setters are less reliable than weather forecasters when it comes to any kind of accuracy about what policy is and what policy should be… if only I could get well paid for being so consistently wrong about damn near everything… its not as if these people aren’t much more than paid tools of foreign interests or the Federal Society… I think so much of what is wrong is the perception for those of us in the 55+ age group was that we grew up with network news being straight up (for the most part) and with Ronnie Raygun blowing up the fairness doctrine, it allowed for hate radio and the likes of Murdoch to pollute our airwaves and as such, critical thinking was kicked to the curb and biases got fed on a daily basis.

  42. 42.

    Kay

    November 13, 2022 at 5:40 pm

    @West of the Rockies:

    Here’s Florida, by county. The X in the provisional and overseas ballot column means they haven’t completed the count yet, so not one county is complete.

    Took about 60 seconds to look that up.

  43. 43.

    Martin

    November 13, 2022 at 5:42 pm

    @Kay: You think it’s laziness? No, they have an agenda. Saying elections don’t work is key to their agenda.

    Remember, Greenwald expressed sadness that the fascist lost in Brazil. He’s just a fascist. No need to insult the man by calling him lazy.

  44. 44.

    Hangö Kex

    November 13, 2022 at 5:43 pm

    I suppose it isn’t strictly my business*, but … such a relief; it even seems that TFG might be toast.

    * I vote in Finland (currently snowbirding in Tenerife though :)

  45. 45.

    sab

    November 13, 2022 at 5:44 pm

    @Kay: The Ohio Sec of State website is so phucking out of date why would anyone look there for anything? Good job Frank LaRose. They still don’t have current maps of the electoral districts we just voted for.Maybe when we vote again we will see the districts that will be about to expire.

  46. 46.

    James E Powell

    November 13, 2022 at 5:45 pm

    @Kay:

    Explain to people that this new Right wing conspiracy theory is nonsense or the overpaid Substackers will spread it and we’ll have a whole new set of election problems.

    Have the political media ever done that?

  47. 47.

    J R in WV

    November 13, 2022 at 5:50 pm

    While Mr Fetterman got a lot of out-of-state news coverage, Mr Shapiro is also a great candidate who won gong away over a pale copy of TFG in the PA governor’s race. And Mr Fetterman will be a great senator from the great state of PA, where my maternal grandfather came from.

  48. 48.

    West of the Rockies

    November 13, 2022 at 5:52 pm

    @Kay:

    What I find mystifying is that people like Glem genuinely think well of themselves, that they’re honest and kind and good.  The human capacity for self-deception is astonishing.  Maybe Dunning-Kreuger should be called the Greenwald Glitch.

  49. 49.

    J R in WV

    November 13, 2022 at 5:53 pm

    @Kay:

    Well, that’s easy for you to say, you’ve lived in FL for most of your life… wait, resetting.

    Betty Cracker has lived in FL most of her life, and can speak as to the quality of FL elections voting and counting. Nothing else good to say about Republican votes and election processing.

  50. 50.

    James E Powell

    November 13, 2022 at 5:56 pm

    @J R in WV:

    Right, a huge win. Shapiro will keep PA from turning into FL North. Wasn’t that the Republicans’ plan?

  51. 51.

    Baud

    November 13, 2022 at 5:56 pm

    @piratedan:

    Greenwald is the classic sea lion, I stopped thinking he was arguing in good faith about the time we were in Obama’s first term.

     

    No matter what mistakes I make in life, I’ll always take pride in having that guy’s number early on.

  52. 52.

    James E Powell

    November 13, 2022 at 5:58 pm

    @West of the Rockies:

    I’ve never understood how he got to be so internet famous. He was already there the first time I ever heard of him. Does he have any accomplishments? Was he a blogger who got a following like Ezra Klein or Matt Yglesias?

  53. 53.

    Another Scott

    November 13, 2022 at 5:58 pm

    Meanwhile, … (from about 5 days ago):

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla acquires Twitter. Why? Because that’s how @elonmusk bailed himself (and his family) out when Solarcity was going bust. He made up some synergies for Tesla, lied about some new Solarcity product — merger managed. t.co/RGuZxXxgTb

    — Linette Lopez (@lopezlinette) November 8, 2022

    Seems a little far-fetched, but… Hmm…

    (via Jonrog1)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  54. 54.

    sab

    November 13, 2022 at 6:01 pm

    @James E Powell: I think blogs rolls like ours linking to him made him famous

    ETA Every left of center blog linked to him for a brief period.

  55. 55.

    sab

    November 13, 2022 at 6:05 pm

    @J R in WV: Florida and the whole South has Jim Crow procedures in the memory of older party hacks and election officials. They are just sneaking on the old procedures of their youth.

  56. 56.

    NotMax

    November 13, 2022 at 6:06 pm

    @James E Powell

    He was prominently and vociferously anti-torture during the Bush/Cheney years. Once that mask was removed with his expansion into other topics the ugliness beneath was revealed.

  57. 57.

    Martin

    November 13, 2022 at 6:06 pm

    @Another Scott: Been saying that for at least a week now. It’s such an obvious prediction to those of us that follow this stuff that I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen.

  58. 58.

    Another Scott

    November 13, 2022 at 6:07 pm

    Meanwhile, …

    Southern Axis Update:

    #Ukrainian officials stated that #Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the #Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in #Melitopol, #Zaporizhia Oblast, and #Mariupol, #Donetsk Oblast. /3t.co/GGc9qkyMUl

    — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) November 13, 2022

    So much for those 3 rows of trenches, etc., etc.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  59. 59.

    James E Powell

    November 13, 2022 at 6:07 pm

    @Martin:

    I mentioned in another thread that when Kamala Harris ran for Attorney General, the race wasn’t called till November 25th (source: wikipedia). Note: that was a miraculous win for her because her opponent was the very popular Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley.

  60. 60.

    Another Scott

    November 13, 2022 at 6:08 pm

    @Another Scott: Whoops – too many links.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  61. 61.

    James E Powell

    November 13, 2022 at 6:08 pm

    @JPL:

    MSM is helping them blame trump, rather than their policies.

    They are clearing the decks for their new crush DeSantis.

  62. 62.

    Another Scott

    November 13, 2022 at 6:09 pm

    @Martin: Ha!  Ok.  I admit I miss the obvious sometimes.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  63. 63.

    The Lodger

    November 13, 2022 at 6:09 pm

    @Martin: I’m confused. Once the ballot is checked, how do you identify the voter who cast it?

  64. 64.

    zhena gogolia

    November 13, 2022 at 6:10 pm

    I lol’ed at this comment from Rex Parker on the NYT crossword (SPOILER):

    *****

    Hilariously, wrote in LON before LIZ (52A: Politico Cheney).

  65. 65.

    Martin

    November 13, 2022 at 6:11 pm

    @sab: We should have a sidebar feature that links to his time sloshing around among the commentariat with the rest of us losers. My recollection is that it didn’t go well.

  66. 66.

    sab

    November 13, 2022 at 6:13 pm

    @Martin: We should.

  67. 67.

    Geminid

    November 13, 2022 at 6:14 pm

    Foungkin Youngkin is a patient and calculating guy. I think he is looking at 2028. His term as Governor ends January 2026. He cannot run for reelection as Governor, so that gives him plenty of time to stage a campaign for President.

    In the meantime he’ll keep helping Republican candidates, not so he can build a good won/loss record but rather to network with Republican politicians and donors, and showcase himself to the rank and file. Youngkin’s still new to them, just like he was new to Virginia voters a year and a half ago. He changed that with a busy schedule of appearances before voters in groups from 30 to 300, and they liked what he showed them.

    If Youngkin employs a 2028 strategy, he will run the risk of someone else winning the 2024 nomination and then the general election. That would likely freeze him out until 2032.

    But this will be a tough primary and I think there will be strong, well funded contenders besides Trump and DeSantis. Youngkin would be a longshot. But he’ll have a good chance at the VP nomination if he stays out and plays his cards right. That would give Youngkin a leg up in 2028 if the ticket lost. If it won, he’d have the inside track in 2032.

  68. 68.

    James E Powell

    November 13, 2022 at 6:19 pm

    I was bopping around the TV channels & came across a show on KCAL 9 called “L. Ron Hubbard: In his own voice.” I had to watch for a few minutes. Fascination with the abomination. Do people not know what Scientology is all about? They will put anything on TV, I guess.

  69. 69.

    West of the Rockies

    November 13, 2022 at 6:22 pm

    @James E Powell:

    Was he the first journalistic name of note on Team Snowden?  I don’t know why he has any fame.

  70. 70.

    Ann Marie

    November 13, 2022 at 6:27 pm

    @J R in WV: Not only the governor and senate races, but the Philadelphia Inquirer is saying that the Democrats are inches away from taking over the state house for the first time in a decade.  Even if they don’t succeed, it’s still a big win.

  71. 71.

    Kirk Spencer

    November 13, 2022 at 6:28 pm

    @Martin: I’m thinking it’s unlikely, myself. Tesla’s total assets are only ~$62B, and that’s too small to cover the $44B the way he used Solarcity. In addition this is specifically his debt, not indirect.

    … on the other hand, his ego might say “it worked once, why not?”

  72. 72.

    West of the Rockies

    November 13, 2022 at 6:29 pm

    1. @James E Powell:

    I get strong Scott Walker vibes from DeSantis.   He’s another charmless, tin-plated junior high bully boy with illusions of grandeur. (As well as being Denebian Slime Devil.)

  73. 73.

    Scout211

    November 13, 2022 at 6:35 pm

    Asa Hutchinson  has already signaled his intent to run for President in 2024.

    Just a quick google search and there are now many “news” articles about the potential Republican candidates and most of the stories do the ranking thing. (Cilliza, of course). Top ten, etc.

    This one  had 24 potential contenders, ranked.

    Again I ask, how are reporters’ opinions of what could happen in the future, maybe, actual news stories? Really media? Can you maybe wait until any of them actually declare? You know, like a story based on facts instead of random thoughts bouncing around inside your head?

    The media is silly. Sheesh.

  74. 74.

    Lyrebird

    November 13, 2022 at 6:36 pm

    @$8 blue check mistermix: THank you fo rthe post and for this tasty response from D Dale.

    I was too late to reply on your NYS posts.  I don’t know whether I should volunteer for the local Dem party or not.  They definitely need support or something.  We were canvassed for state senate twice and assembly twice.

  75. 75.

    Kay

    November 13, 2022 at 6:40 pm

    David Becker 🇺🇦
    @beckerdavidj
    ·6h
    I’ll say it again, as some former journalists might not have done their research. We have ALWAYS needed days/weeks to verify and count ballots. EVERY STATE. ALWAYS. /1

    The disinformation war is kicking into high gear. Candidates who perceive they are going to lose, aided by election deniers — and even some members of Congress — are falsely claiming that some states (conveniently always ones that align with their political views) are long since finished with counting or raising suspicion about counting delays.
    These claims are inaccurate, and as importantly, they are potentially dangerous.
    These are the facts. No state, in the history of the United States, has counted all of its ballots on “Election Night.” In fact, our Constitution and state laws have always recognized that it takes days or weeks to count all of the ballots.

  76. 76.

    Kay

    November 13, 2022 at 6:45 pm

    @West of the Rockies:

    genuinely think well of themselves, that they’re honest and kind and good.

    Oh, I don’t think so. They think they are smart, which is not the same as “honest and kind and good”
    Greenwald thinks this dumb thing that uninformed people say every election is insightful and original and he’s the only one who dared to raise it.

  77. 77.

    Benw

    November 13, 2022 at 6:51 pm

    I made virgin Whiskey Sours for the first time and they came out pretty good!

  78. 78.

    Martin

    November 13, 2022 at 6:54 pm

    @The Lodger: Ah. Excellent question. This applies to almost every election system in the US now, but will differ in various details. But they all rhyme.

    So, the registrar of voters (ROV) creates a unique ID for you – could be your SS#, but is probably just a randomly assigned number in some database somewhere. That number serves as a proxy for you, the voter. Feed that number into the database, and you can look up your name, address, phone number, etc. It might look like this:

    12345678;Biden;Joseph;1600 Pennsylvania Ave;Washington;DC;202-456-1111;[email protected]

    ID, last name, first name, address, phone, email, etc.

    When you go to vote in person, there’s a voter log which records that voter 12345678 cast a ballot. That goes in a database so that we can know that you voted. Not *how* you voted, just that you cast a vote. It might look something like this:

    12345678;2022-11-08 16:11:08

    ID, date of election and time the ballot was submitted (timestamp) or when the person checked in.

    When the ROV mails out a ballot, they attach an ID to the ballot. It’s not your voter ID but a completely different random number which is generated just for that ballot. There is a different system that records the ballot ID and the voter id it was attached to. It might look like this:

    9876543210;12345678

    Ballot id, voter id. Ballot IDs are never reused so we don’t even need to care which election this was for.

    And the voter log might look different:

    12345678;2022-10-03 09:41:56;2022-11-06 11:32:12;2022-11-08 16:11:08

    Now the voter log shows the voter ID, the timestamp for when the mail ballot was mailed out to me, the timestamp for when the mail ballot was received by the ROV, and the timestamp when I voted in person. Ha ha! I voted twice! If I didn’t vote in person, that 4th field would be NULL. If I didn’t return the mail ballot, that 3rd field would be NULL. But you note that the voter log doesn’t have the ballot ID. It doesn’t need it. By recording when a ballot was sent out, it tells us there is a ballot id but requires us to search the other system to find it. One benefit of this is that you can open up the voter log to parties that you wouldn’t want to be able to associate the ballot ID with the voter ID and lock down the ballot/voter ID table to a much smaller number of people. There are techniques for obfuscating this further, but really you just want a system where if given a ballot ID, you can’t deduce the voter id (like making the ballot ID the voter ID with some digits attached) and vice versa.

    If the ballot gets processed successfully, the system records the vote off over there somewhere (waves hands) and sends a message to the voter logging system to say ballot 9876543210 was processed 2022-11-06 11:32:12. The voter logging system looks up 9876543210 in the ballot lookup, gets the voter ID of 12345678 and then logs the processing timestamp in the voter log for 12345678.

    If there’s a problem with the ballot, a worker can do a similar lookup, find that 9876543210 is the ballot for 12345678 and looks up in the voter registration system that 12345678 is Joe Biden’s ballot, and how to reach him. You can then call him, cure the ballot, and then process it and it’ll go through the step in the preceding paragraph.

    The vote recording system needs an ID for the ballot. I could be the same ballot ID or it could be just a randomly generated one – depends on if there’s ever a need to work that vote data back to the voter. There’s even techniques where you can derive an ID from the mail ballot ID that you can easily walk backward but given the mail ballot ID is damn near impossible to find the actual recorded ballot data. (This is how encryption systems work).

    These kinds of systems are actually more involved than this but it gives you the basic idea. You can lock down the various layers to just the people who need access.

    In the case of the double vote above, it can tell the system to zero out the mail ballot because the in-person ballot overrides it and/or to investigate me for trying to vote twice. Here in CA you often cure spoiled ballots by voting in person and there’s a flag on your record that someone instructed you to do that.

    This system also allows the ROV here to send you a text when they mail out your ballot, when they’ve received it, when it’s been processed. It’s kinda nice. So long as there is either NO way to resolve the ballot results to the voter ID or a way that is extremely secure and limited, then it preserves voter privacy.

  79. 79.

    mrmoshpotato

    November 13, 2022 at 6:56 pm

    @Benw: 🤨

  80. 80.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 13, 2022 at 6:57 pm

    @Benw: So you made sours?

  81. 81.

    Benw

    November 13, 2022 at 7:00 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: haha yeah! The zero proof whiskey is an impressive alternative

  82. 82.

    Martin

    November 13, 2022 at 7:00 pm

    @Kirk Spencer: He’s floated that he might file for bankruptcy protection for Twitter. There’s almost no chance he gets it. Gross negligence doesn’t fly for corporate bankruptcy where there are no investors to protect. It’s after that effort I think he might try and make it work.

    I think SpaceX is going to have their government contract money taper off because of all of this, so his ability to service that debt out of his own pocket might start to falter. He doesn’t need Tesla to eat $44B, just the debt.

  83. 83.

    Kay

    November 13, 2022 at 7:01 pm

    @Benw:

    OOOOh. I have non drinking house guests coming for Christmas so I’ve been looking at mocktails. There are so many choices now! It used to be like..O’Douls and that’s it.

    I like the herb flavored sodas, ginger and root, so I’ve been looking at dry and herby rather than sweet.

  84. 84.

    Kay

    November 13, 2022 at 7:07 pm

    Voting process conspiracies drive me crazy because all any of these people have to do is work as a pollworker for a couple of cycles and they will realize this is a dull, rule-bound state recording process.

    It reminds me of how they turned birth certificates, another completely unremarkable state recording process, into an elaborate web of deceit and intrigue. How they imagined “the original” had some kind of special signifigance over a duplicate original.

    They’re exhausting.

  85. 85.

    Benw

    November 13, 2022 at 7:10 pm

    @Kay: yes! So many creative options! I got a mocktail at dinner the other night that was ginger, cucumber, cayenne, and something sparkling and it was fantastic.

  86. 86.

    NotMax

    November 13, 2022 at 7:13 pm

    @Kay

    Holiday soda, you say?

    ;)

  87. 87.

    BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️

    November 13, 2022 at 7:15 pm

    @Baud: You and me both. His sell-by date passed some time ago.

  88. 88.

    BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️

    November 13, 2022 at 7:16 pm

    Duplicate

  89. 89.

    WaterGirl

    November 13, 2022 at 7:26 pm

    @Martin: @sab:  Maybe on some rainy day when there’s not a lot going on.

    I have thought about having a throwback Thursday (or some day of the week) where we put up some post from the archives.

  90. 90.

    NotMax

    November 13, 2022 at 7:27 pm

    Recently watched Troupers, which was wholly entertaining.

    Available on Tubi (free with ads*) and, in full, on YouTube. (It’s also a 99 cent rental on Prime.)

    *Xmas ads currently airing in plenitude.

  91. 91.

    NotMax

    November 13, 2022 at 7:30 pm

    #90 – wrong thread.

  92. 92.

    TriassicSands

    November 13, 2022 at 7:42 pm

    @divF:

    I disagree. At least, I’m not convinced there has been a true conversion. Yes, she has a strong aversion to the TrumpCult and its enablers, but she pretty much worships Cheney. Personally, I believe that she would revert to the GOP if it appeared (without real substance) to have returned to being the party she supported all the way back in 2015, when the GOP was nothing less than fertile ground for the planting of Trumpism.

    Rubin has been an outspoken critic of the Republican Party, but that is largely because of their acquiescence to Trumpism. She supported the GOP when McConnell was pulling his thuggish crap in the Senate and when the party was working hard to kill Roe v. Wade. She supported the Republican Party when it tried to kill the ACA, when it was beginning to fill the SCOTUS with extremists, and when the party was a science-denying den of idiots. Only the ascendence of Trump and his obvious criminality, incompetence, and overt sexism made a difference. To her credit, she recognizes that it isn’t enough to simply oppose Trumpism, she also has to vote for the only candidates who can replace it — Democrats.

    I’d like to think that she has changed at her core, but we may never know since Trump-DeSantis is the future of the GOP for the indefinite future.

    The one contribution that Rubin could have made was to convince other Republicans just how bad Trumpism is. But I doubt if she’s had any significant impact there. That’s not her fault. It’s just that the people who need to read and hear what she is writing and saying aren’t listening.

    The same goes for Cheney. No one on the January 6 committee has been a more effective critic of Trump, but her many years of being a very conservative Republican meant nothing with the base after she voted to impeach Trump. Maybe, she convinced a few people, but they’re still voting for Trumpist Republicans at election time.

    I think Trump is fading. My hope is that when he’s finally eclipsed by someone like DeSantis that he will decide that if he can’t be “Der Fuehrer” then no Republican can. My ideal scenario in 2024 would be DeSantis or some other fascist running as a Repbublican and Trump, refusing to bow out, running as an MAGA Independent. We owe Biden’s presidency to a second right wing party — the Libertarians. Whoever is the Dem candidate in 2024, they will have a much better chance of winning if both Trump and some other Republican run against each other. And that would be Trump being Trump. (Note: Yes, there are problems with that scenario.)

  93. 93.

    Brachiator

    November 13, 2022 at 7:49 pm

    @James E Powell:

    I was bopping around the TV channels & came across a show on KCAL 9 called “L. Ron Hubbard: In his own voice.” I had to watch for a few minutes. Fascination with the abomination. Do people not know what Scientology is all about?

    I wonder the same thing when I visit my doctors at the Kaiser medical center in Hollywood. The Scientology headquarters building is across the street.

  94. 94.

    Kay

    November 13, 2022 at 7:56 pm

    @Benw:

    Ginger and cucumber. Yum. I always have Welchs sparkling grape for kids to put in a wine glass but it seems like the “mocktails” category has exploded so I’m going to have some fun with it.

  95. 95.

    sab

    November 13, 2022 at 7:58 pm

    @WaterGirl: Sorry. A lot of work for someone who isn’t we two, only to dis someone else who isn’t any of us and never has been.

  96. 96.

    Benw

    November 13, 2022 at 8:02 pm

    @Kay: salud!

  97. 97.

    MomSense

    November 13, 2022 at 8:20 pm

    GFY, Glenn.

  98. 98.

    Another Scott

    November 13, 2022 at 8:26 pm

    Helpful reminder…:

    Total turnover during the 117th Congress (the current session) in the US House of Representatives was 16 members:

    — 1 died before taking office
    — 5 died in office
    — 1 indicted, resigned
    — 3 left for Administration
    — 1 appointed Lt. Gov. of NY
    — 5 resigned for private sector jobs

    — Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) November 13, 2022

    (via nycsouthpaw)

    Nobody knows what the future holds, and things can change quickly. We need to fight them every single day and keep moving forward.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  99. 99.

    TriassicSands

    November 13, 2022 at 8:38 pm

    @Scout211:

    It’s all about the “clicks,” man. The clicks. No matter who is on the list, the overwhelming majority have no chance of getting the nomination. Most are just about “vanity,” although scamming people for money is always a consideration.

  100. 100.

    Lee Hartmann

    November 13, 2022 at 8:42 pm

    @SpaceUnit:  100%

  101. 101.

    The Lodger

    November 13, 2022 at 9:04 pm

    @Martin: Thanks for the explanation. I didn’t know how the system could detect faulty ballots without identifying the candidate whom was being voted for. You also exposed a lot of ballot-stuffing allegations as complete nonsense (per Kay.)

  102. 102.

    apocalipstick

    November 13, 2022 at 9:08 pm

    @James E Powell: Right after 9/11, Greenwald was one of the few audible voices calling out nonsense like the Patriot Act. It made him seem more progressive than he ever was.

  103. 103.

    yellowdog

    November 13, 2022 at 9:43 pm

    @jackmac: He didn’t  even bother with Maryland’s gov race, and MD is right next door.

  104. 104.

    Soprano2

    November 13, 2022 at 9:46 pm

    @Kay: You’d think he wasn’t alive for the 2000 election! There was endless talk about overseas ballots and how long after election day they could arrive and still be counted.

  105. 105.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 13, 2022 at 11:43 pm

    @Hangö Kex: They never stay away from Trump for long. He’s seemed to be out before and the party just comes rushing back to him– the politicians are too scared of his supporters. I am not convinced we won’t have Trump back as at least the presidential nominee.

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