Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

We’re watching the self-immolation of the leading world power on a level unprecedented in human history.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

No Kings: Americans standing in the way of bad history saying “Oh, Fuck No!”

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

Second rate reporter says what?

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Mediocre white men think RFK Jr’s pathetic midlife crisis is inspirational. The bar is set so low for them, it’s subterranean.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

In after Baud. Damn.

We still have time to mess this up!

Everybody saw this coming.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Fingers Crossed for Katie Hobbs, Possibly Good News Tonight?

Fingers Crossed for Katie Hobbs, Possibly Good News Tonight?

by | 259 Comments

This post is in: 

This evening we should be seeing the rest of the ballots from Maricopa.

From the Washington Post late this afternoon.  Let us savor.

Lawyers, political operatives and other people around the Republican nominee worked over the weekend from a “war room” inside a Scottsdale resort to prepare her for what they expect to be a stinging loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs, according to people familiar with the discussions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share private details.

With about 160,000 votes left to be counted, Lake trailed Hobbs on Monday by 26,000 votes. Recent tallies have not been as favorable to the Republican as Lake would need to close the gap. She may even be slipping out of the range that would trigger a recount, which occurs when no more than 0.5 percent of the vote separates the candidates.

Within Lake’s war room, where the mood has shifted in the past week from giddy anticipation to grim resignation, discussions have centered on how Lake should speak about a loss. Among those who have made appearances are some of the biggest names in Trump’s orbit, including Stephen K. Bannon and Christina Bobb, a former One America News anchor who aided a review of 2.1 million ballots in Maricopa County after the 2020 election. Trump himself called in on Sunday.

Additional results from Maricopa County were expected to post late Monday. People in the GOP war room expect those results to cut into Hobbs’s lead, but probably not by enough to change the trajectory of the contest.

The subdued mood in the war room, where those gathered in recent days downed coffee and ate pizza and sandwiches, marks a reversal from days earlier. The day after voting ended, Lake was holed up in meetings about a potential transition into the governor’s office — examining resumes and talking with business leaders and GOP hands about spots on her team.

Now, the mood inside a large conference room filled with televisions and strewn coffee cups has shifted from elation to a mix of anger and resignation that Hobbs may be on her way to flipping the governorship blue after more than a decade of Republican control.

Reader Interactions

259Comments

  4. 4.

    WaterGirl

    My favorite part above:

    Now, the mood inside a large conference room filled with televisions and strewn coffee cups has shifted from elation to a mix of anger and resignation that Hobbs may be on her way to flipping the governorship blue after more than a decade of Republican control.

  6. 6.

    Marmot

    Now, the mood inside a large conference room filled with televisions and strewn coffee cups has shifted from elation to a mix of anger and resignation that Hobbs may be on her way to flipping the governorship blue after more than a decade of Republican control.

    The haunted clown toilet of angry-sad! That’s how Sadly, No described some righty blog after a big loss. How I miss them.

  11. 11.

    bbleh

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer Crazy.

    I admit, though, I’m still a little amazed by how little of their usual whining about “fraud” — and people from inner-city Philadelphia being bused to Phoenix to cast ballots, and Italian satellites and Chinese thermostats, and whatever else enters their badly cracked pots — has made it into the mainstream.  Is it some kind of attack of sensibility among MSM editors at large? Are the public just over it — it’s VERY last season after all — and there’s no market for it?  Is it merely a shift in the malign influence of Murdoch, Demon Lord of the MAGAzoid underworld?

    Anyway, happy to see it.  Or rather, NOT see it.

  12. 12.

    The Moar You Know

    Among those who have made appearances are some of the biggest names in Trump’s orbit, including Stephen K. Bannon and Christina Bobb, a former One America News anchor who aided a review of 2.1 million ballots in Maricopa County after the 2020 election. Trump himself called in on Sunday.

    oh.  She will probably declare the opening of the Second Civil War with that crowd advising her.  I expect nothing like a concession.

  14. 14.

    Mike in Pasadena

    I watched the Blake Masters commercial posted on another thread with awe. A grown man outside Tucson in a t-shirt he slept in goes shooting with a Walther PPK sporting an improperly attached noise suppressor (which he calls a silencer) and pops off .22 caliber shells. He has very little to say about why he wants to be a senator, what he aims to do in office, or bills he plans to sponsor. He strokes his “made in Germany” weapon like a teenager stroking whatever to pleasure himself. I thought I’d seen the lows of gun fetishism with the creepy Christmas cards showing every member of the family sporting automatic rifles, but this guy gave new meaning to Creepy. Wow.

  15. 15.

    WaterGirl

    @bbleh: The article talked about that.  Kari Lake is still trying to decide whether to follow the advice of her advisors (redundant!) or whether to cry foul and refuse to concede.

    Apparently it’s quite the dilemma because election deniers are losing, so they can’t go with their new favorite “I was robbed!”

  16. 16.

    Amir Khalid

    Kari Lake’s Schade brings me so much Freude.

    (And that, my friends, is the right way to split the compound noun Schadenfreude.)

  18. 18.

    bbleh

    @WaterGirl: There is that kind of preternaturally soft-focus look she has, along with the weirdly large and moist eyes, and the encyclopedic yet kinda robotic command of RWNJ catch-phrases and conspiracy theories.

    And I admit, I’ve never seen her in person.  Maybe she IS just an on-screen avatar, some combination of deepfake, scripting, and AI.  The first Virtual Candidate.

  19. 19.

    The Moar You Know

    @bbleh: it’s a combo.  The MSM isn’t reporting on what of it there is, and ever since people fucked around and now are sitting in for-real prison finding out, it seems to have lost its appeal.

  21. 21.

    Baud

    I hope Hobbs wins because she’s one of the Dem candidates whose campaign people were complaining about.

  22. 22.

    bbleh

    @WaterGirl: Lol yeah, I especially liked the part about “DC Republicans are frantically whispering ‘shuddup shuddup shuddup dammit shuddup!’ into every available ear.” (Ok I’m paraphrasing.)  But it’s exactly that phenomenon I’m referring to.  For whatever reason, Crazy is not just Out but Way Out right now.

  24. 24.

    WaterGirl

    @bbleh: I have to say, she seems to be showing more of her true self in this photo, which shows her as a very unattractive person on the inside.

    Fingers Crossed for Katie Hobbs, Possibly Good News Tonight?

    It’s almost like you can see through the nearly human exterior to an ugly soul that most definitely needs a firmware revision.

  26. 26.

    Ken

    @bbleh: There is that kind of preternaturally soft-focus look she has

    Others have noted this. I was reminded of Neil Gaiman’s American Gods, where the “new god” Media is described in almost those terms.

  28. 28.

    WaterGirl

    Well, I pulled out the rest of the kettle corn I had purchased as my designated election night stress eating indulgence.

    I tried to wait for an announcement, but I cheated and ate some a few minutes ago.  Now that we are hopefully close (wish) to an announcement, I couldn’t help myself.

  32. 32.

    leeleeFL

    @Baud: Not debating Lake was a gamble.  But, it seems she was correct in not giving that robot a forum for her RWNJ BS!  HOODATHUNK?

  35. 35.

    Jackie

    I’m keeping my fingers crossed for a final result tonight, but I heard the vote counts from Maricopa County expected to be released tonight are from Nov 8 dropped off ballots  – which are assumed to be more Republican. Hobbs lead might even shrink some – but Lake will need about 60% of the votes to have a shot. Not likely to happen, but it may be another day or two before Hobbs gets the ✅ next to her name.

  36. 36.

    Baud

    @leeleeFL:

    Well never really know what would have happened if Hobbs had debated. She might have won by more! As long as she pulls it out, it’s all good.

  37. 37.

    Scout211

    McCarthy is doing some lobbying with the Republican crazy caucus.  Link

    House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy promised Monday that he would kick key Democrats off committees if his party gains control of the lower chamber.
     
    McCarthy said that he would remove Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar from the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Democratic Reps. Eric Swalwell and Adam Schiff from the House Intelligence Committee, according to a source in the room during a Republican conference leadership forum.

  41. 41.

    Mathguy

    If they drive a stake through that certifiable nightmare’s campaign tonight….HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

  44. 44.

    NotMax

    Stupidest thing yet seen this week.

    Steve Jobs’ Birkenstock Arizona sandals were sold for $218,750, Julien’s Auctions announced –– the highest price ever paid for a pair of sandals at an auction. The buyer was not disclosed.

    The anticipated selling price for the two-strap brown suede pair of sandals was $60,000. However, the final sale with an accompanying NFT was more than $200,000. Source

    That’s a hair over $20,000 per toe.

  47. 47.

    dm

     

    Where does “Let us savor” come from? My declining neurons suggest Peggy Noonan, but if so, what was she talking about?

    If you google the phrase (on DuckDuckGo, at least) the third link that shows up is a 2018 Betty Cracker post featuring a father ripping an ACA repealer for attacking his family’s financial security (who, at the time of Betty’s post had just gone down to a surprise defeat), that was well worth revisiting.

  50. 50.

    bbleh

    So apparently 4 AZ counties — but not yet Maricopa — have just dropped results?  Or so CNN implies a/o 8:10 ET.

    Aaaand, oooo, not so good for Crazi Kari.  Wrong direction…

  53. 53.

    NotMax

    All the best to you, Tony. You done good.

    Dr. Anthony Fauci knew he was being turned into a villain of the far-right early on in the coronavirus pandemic, when President Donald Trump’s administration stopped defending him.
    [snip]
    “White House staff — even the communications staff — actually did things like opposition research on me,” he said, “and no pushback on the part of the White House. That’s when I knew that was a signal to the outside world that it was open season to attack me. And then I knew that I had become the boogeyman of the far, extreme right.”

    Now, Fauci’s career in government is coming to an end — but his work on the pandemic that defined his career will continue. Source

  60. 60.

    Fake Irishman

    @bbleh:

    Looks like one was Pima, which is the second largest county and a Dem stronghold. Hobbs up by about 30,000.

    Also, keep an eye on that state AG race. It’s going to go right down to the wire. Winning that is almost as big as the governorship.

  61. 61.

    WaterGirl

    PSA: Postcard writing party & music thread #4 is tomorrow night – Tuesday at 8pm Eastern.  Come join us to write postcards, share music, and cheer the writers on.

  65. 65.

    WaterGirl

    @Geminid: I just coughed three times, that ought to do it, no?

    edit: It was just the dregs of the first bag.  I DID NOT OPEN THE NEW BAG, so maybe I’m okay?  If you squint a little?

  67. 67.

    bbleh

    @NotMax: Tony Fauci is an inspiration, a true mensch.  I hope a million kids thinking idly about being doctors or scientists looked at him and thought “hell yeah!”

  70. 70.

    MazeDancer

    You can download the PostCards, plus others, here.

    Have new addresses fresh from the State of Georgia, who won’t identify party, but will race. And gender. So, we’re going with all Black Women from now on. Power to the People, right on!

  72. 72.

    WaterGirl

    @bbleh: I’m just going from memory, but I looked at this page a little while ago, and I think the numbers were 50.5% and 49.5% then.

    30,000 seems like a pretty good lead?

    Fingers Crossed for Katie Hobbs, Possibly Good News Tonight? 2

  74. 74.

    japa21

    @WaterGirl: ​
      It does look good. Lake needs 60-65% of remaining vote. However, looks like the Dem is not going to win AZ 1. Latest drop put him behind.

  79. 79.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Baud:

    So Much to Savor
    — The Wall Street Journal: November 4, 2004 

    God bless our country.

    Hello, old friends. Let us savor.

    Let us get our heads around the size and scope of what happened Tuesday. George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States, became the first incumbent president to increase his majority in both the Senate and the House and to increase his own vote (by over 3.5 million) since Franklin D. Roosevelt, political genius of the 20th century, in 1936. This is huge.

    George W. Bush is the first president to win more than 50% of the popular vote since 1988. (Bill Clinton failed to twice; Mr. Bush failed to last time and fell short of a plurality by half a million.) The president received more than 59 million votes, breaking Ronald Reagan’s old record of 54.5 million. Mr. Bush increased his personal percentages in almost every state in the union. He carried the Catholic vote and won 42% of the Hispanic vote and 24% of the Jewish vote (up from 19% in 2000.)

    It will be hard for the mainstream media to continue, in the face of these facts, the mantra that we are a deeply and completely divided country. But they’ll try!

    The Democrats have lost their leader in the Senate, Tom Daschle. I do not know what the Democratic Party spent, in toto, on the 2004 election, but what they seem to have gotten for it is Barack Obama. Let us savor.

  80. 80.

    bbleh

    @WaterGirl: not the faintest idea.  But what pretty much all the MSM stories have been saying, and what it’s fairly easy to verify for oneself, is that for Lake to win, she must win remaining ballots by X%, and when X was 56 she was winning  around 52, and as X has slowly crept up to around/above 58, things ain’t lookin’ any better for her (quite the contrary).

    Personally, I’d expect the media to call it tonight.

  89. 89.

    Scout211

    In CA-47, Katie Porter’s lead was decreased after today’s vote dump. She still is 2,891 ahead though, with 77% of the votes counted.

    I’m sure Martin will explain all of this in his California update.

  90. 90.

    Citizen Alan

    @WaterGirl:  Honestly, she looks like an early nineties female televangelist who time traveled to the year 2022 to spread the good news about Republican Jesu

  92. 92.

    Redshift

    @WaterGirl:

    Of course “payback” is the first concern when you think you will have the awesome responsibility to make things better for the American people.

    His top concern is securing his own ass power, not what he’s going to do with it.

    Even if it weren’t for the policy differences (back when they actually cared about policy), I’d rather have our herd of cats than their bag of rats any day.

  93. 93.

    Jackie

    Every time I hear Lake ridiculing Hobbs by saying she was a basement campaigner – hinting she’s like Biden – I wish somebody within Lake’s hearing would ask “How’d that turn out for Joe?”

  94. 94.

    WaterGirl

    @Brent: Thanks, yeah I went to that link when Baud posted it but it looked like some crazy cartoonish site so I thought it was just one more in-joke that I didn’t get.

    I realized late what was what.

  95. 95.

    Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg

    @dm:

    Peggy Noonan, 2004. All that Team D created was the nonentity that was Barack Obama.

  98. 98.

    Mousebumples

    @WaterGirl: people who thought the GOP would win Senate seats can wait for the results to ALL come in with the rest of us before I’m listening to their prognosticating.

    It’ll be whatever it’ll be. He’ll be right (now) or wrong again. He’s been wrong on how some of these races have flipped after Election Day, so I’ve been ignoring him.

  105. 105.

    trollhattan

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: It is well-established law that whenever quoting Peggy N-Martinis Before Lunch Noonan, this be included.

    I first saw President Reagan as a foot, highly polished brown cordovan wagging merrily on a hassock. I spied it through the door. It was a beautiful foot, sleek. Such casual elegance and clean lines! But not a big foot, not formidable, maybe a little …frail. I imagined cradling it in my arms, protecting it from unsmooth roads.

  106. 106.

    Mousebumples

    Speaking of the Speaker…

    Scott Wong (@scottwongDC) tweeted at 7:20 PM on Mon, Nov 14, 2022:
    SCOOP: @RepMTG’s worst fears could soon be coming true.

    DON BACON (R-Neb.) tells @NBCNews he’s willing to work with DEMS to elect a moderate Speaker if 218 Republicans can’t agree on a candidate. @RepDonBacon

    w/@KyleAlexStewart @jonallendc
    https://t.co/4HfSLEuW2X
    (https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1592326686431121413?t=c_1SsDcIHyGlq-ZwCu3bWw&s=03)

    Non-MAGA Republicans want to get reelected in 2 years. Their districts are unlikely to enjoy seeing the Leopard-Eating-Faces-Party do nothing for 2 years.

    Could be very interesting.

  108. 108.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @WaterGirl: It’s almost like you can see through the nearly human exterior to an ugly soul that most definitely needs a firmware revision.

    Beauty is only skin deep, but ugly goes to the bone… (Heard this as a teenager, never found an attribution – but that’s OK because AFAICT neither has anyone else…)

  109. 109.

    Jackie

    Per Political Wire:

    Gov. Brian Kemp (R) “will testify Tuesday morning before the Fulton County special grand jury examining whether former President Donald Trump and his allies criminally meddled in Georgia’s 2020 elections,“ the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

  116. 116.

    Sister Golden Bear

    @Redshift: Except Tammy Faye Bakker became a gay icon after parting with “Praise The Lord” for her advocacy for LGBT persons and reaching out to HIV/AIDS patients at the height of the AIDS epidemic.

    I don’t see that happening with Lake, even with a firmware update.

  119. 119.

    trollhattan

    CA House summary posted at 5:16, sane time zone time.

    District 3 (areas east of Sacramento): Republican Kevin Kiley leads with 53% of the vote. Democrat Kermit Jones has 47%.

    District 9 (Stockton): Democratic Rep. Josh Harder leads with 56.3%. Republican Tom Patti has 43.7%.

    District 13 (Modesto south to Fresno): Republican John Duarte leads with 50.1%. Democrat Adam Gray has 49.9%.

    District 22 (Visalia to Bakersfield): Republican Rep. David Valadao leads with 52.5%. Democrat Rudy Salas has 47.5%.

    District 27 (Santa Clarita): Republican Rep. Mike Garcia leads with 55.4%. Democrat Christy Smith has 44.6%.

    District 41 (south of Riverside to Palm Springs): Republican Rep. Ken Calvert leads with 51.3%. Democrat Will Rollins has 48.7%.

    District 45 (Orange County): Republican Rep. Michelle Steel leads with 53.8%. Democrat Jay Chen has 46.2%.

    District 47 (Orange County): Democratic Rep. Katie Porter leads with 51.3%. Republican Scott Baugh has 48.7%.

    District 49 (southern Orange County, northern San Diego County): Democratic Rep. Mike Levin leads with 52.6%. Republican Brian Maryott has 47.4%.

    https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article268734967.html#storylink=cpy

  120. 120.

    oldgold

    I read folks like Steve Kornacki. I must be missing something. I would rather watch someone scrape their front teeth down a chalkboard than his election reporting.

  122. 122.

    cain

    @Redshift: ​

    Which is kind of sad because Tammy in the end was not a bad human. I liked her and I know she is a tragic figure. Her husband on the other hand…

  125. 125.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: So no one has called it for Katie Hobbs?  But it’s still clear that she has won?

    Do I get to open my bag of kettle corn?

    edit: Yay on Katie Hobbs!  :: sound of bag opening ::

    Any news on Kris Mayes, or will it come down to the wire?  Will we not know that for another week yet?

  128. 128.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    I am really glad that Katie Hobbs took over the governor’s mansion. I kept hoping things would turn around in AZ 1 and AZ 6, but it doesn’t seem to be happening. :(

  131. 131.

    cain

    You know we might as well start gerrymandering some of those CA house districts .. fair is fair after all

  133. 133.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @oldgold: I don’t hate him, but I don’t get the fanclub eithe

    ETA: watching a fairly extended of Kari Lake at CPAC on the Hayes program, I don’t see the magnetic TV personality I keep hearing about.

  135. 135.

    Geminid

    @Mousebumples: Bacon’s district voted for Biden in 2020. I think it’s the Nebraska 3rd CD. Omaha is part of it.

    Nebrasksa awards its electoral votes one per Congressional District, two more for who ever wins the state. So Joe Biden got  one electoral vote out of Bacons district.

    Maine’s 2nd CD was a mirror image: Democrat Jared Golden was reelected Congressman, while Trump won the district and its one electoral vote.

  141. 141.

    James E Powell

    @hilts:

    Pence said “the president’s words were reckless. (Trump) endangered me and my family and everyone at the Capitol building.”

    But he would vote for him to be president again.

  144. 144.

    Baud

    We Have The Votes‘: The Senate Will Act This Week To Codify Same-Sex Marriage

    With the midterm elections over, Democrats have found enough Republicans ready to join them in advancing basic LGBTQ rights

  146. 146.

    Mousebumples

    @japa21: Doesn’t need to be anyone in the House. I’d wonder if GOP reps that voted for impeachment & then lost reelection (eg Herrera-Butler, Kinzinger, Meijer… Or even Amash) could be options? Or any more moderate Dems? (Spanberger?)

    @Geminid: That sounds right. I wrote postcards for Bacon’s opponent this time around.

    While the schadenfreude would be immense from Speaker Mccarthy… I’d rather we actually had a functional House. And maybe make it easier to put the MAGA-Republicans out to pasture… But that’s probably dreaming.

  147. 147.

    bbleh

    @WaterGirl: assuming I haven’t overdosed on Maricopa Drops, magic number for Crazi Kari is now

    50% + 1/2  x 20481 / [ (1265331+1244850) / (3%/97%) ] = 63% of remaining ballots

    and that seems … unlikely.

  150. 150.

    piratedan

    I feel as though a great victory for good has been won in the state of Arizona….

    Mayes is in the lead for AG and Dems are back in front for the superintendent of Schools.

     

    The AZ House races are slower to update, but it looks like AZ 6 is lost and we’re behind in AZ 1.  Still work to do in the state, but the trends are good that  we’re reaching folks or impressing on others to get registered and vote.

  154. 154.

    CaseyL

    Yay! for Katie Hobbs!!  So nice to see AZ now has much saner government.

    Ugh, though, for our chances of keeping the House.  A couple more races have been called for the GOP.

  155. 155.

    Joseph Patrick Lurker

    @oldgold:

    I read folks like Steve Kornacki. I must be missing something. I would rather watch someone scrape their front teeth down a chalkboard than his election reporting.

    How is it humanly possible for anyone to dislike Steve Kornacki?

  157. 157.

    WaterGirl

    @frosty: Yay for election deniers going down in flames!  Their elections of course, not the people.  They won’t literally go down in flames until they head straight to hell when they croak.

  158. 158.

    James E Powell

    @Mousebumples:

    That sounds like great grist for the Village mills, but there is no way Republican reps will go for anyone acceptable to Democrats. I do hope they fight about it. I’d put my money on Stefanik.

  159. 159.

    Geminid

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: An independent candidate got ~5% and held Golden below 50%. Maine has ranked  choice voting, and I think that the second ranked votes have not been counted yet. They should make Golden the winner.

  163. 163.

    Fake Irishman

    @Baud:

    schumer filed for cloture on the motion to proceed this evening. That probably means a final vote later this week.

  164. 164.

    karen marie

    @Amir Khalid:   They’re going to scrape the sandals to try to recover DNA and make a baby clone

    PS Garrett pointed to DecisionDeskHQ has called it for Hobbs.  I don’t know who they are but if Garrett thinks it’s reliable to point at, I’ll take it.

  166. 166.

    bbleh

    @Fake Irishman: That would be welcome indeed

    But as much interest as I have in that particular bill, it still galls me that, so far at least, there is not the same level of support for reproductive rights or, FFS, voting rights.

    I mean, voting rights?  Come ON …!

  167. 167.

    karen marie

    @Fake Irishman:   I saw a quick thing on the bird thing earlier today that whatever the bill is, not everyone is happy.  It’s said to allow states to opt out of same-sex marriage.  Seems insane to have a bill that would do that but these are not sane times.  It also makes me question what will be in a federal abortion bill.

  168. 168.

    Geminid

    @trollhattan: I hope that Will Rollins takes another shot at Ken Calvert in two years. A presidential year electorate might make the difference in California’s 41st CD.

  170. 170.

    bbleh

    @karen marie: My understanding is that it is intended to forestall a more general striking-down by the Supremes.  Opt-out is better than opt-in, and it’s WAY better than “you can’t opt in.”

  171. 171.

    Fake Irishman

    Mayes is still up by 4,195 in the AG race. That one’s not getting called for a while and will go to a recount, but she has a good chance to win.

    I think the good guys are going to lose the state school superintendent race; Dem incumbent will be replaced by what Kay would call a “low-quality hire” who wants to ban bilingual education. But that one will go to a recount too

  176. 176.

    Martin

    Not great news in CA folks.

    CA-03: – 6.0 [+0 ] (open seat) [79,595]
    CA-09: +12.6 [* ] (D incumbent) [44,513]
    CA-13: – 0.2 [* ] (open seat) [39,613]
    CA-21: + 9.2 [* ] (D incumbent) [44,710]
    CA-22: – 5.0 [* ] (R incumbent) [26,799]
    CA-27: – 8.8 [+2.0] (R incumbent) [68,553]
    CA-41: – 2.6 [-1.2] (R incumbent) [78,918]
    CA-45: – 6.6 [+0.8] (R incumbent) [78,622]
    CA-47: + 1.3 [-1.3] (D incumbent) [114,392]
    CA-49: + 5.0 [+0.4] (D incumbent) [135,046]

    A little bit of vote in CA-03 – a couple thousand ballots. No change. I think this was one of the smaller counties reporting.

    No new data from CA-09, -13, -21, -22. I think the counties updated later than the state’s last refresh. We might get a new refresh later.

    CA-27 saw a nice new chunk taken out of it. Still a long way to go. About 60% has been counted. Longshot, but maybe.

    CA 41 is going in the wrong direction. They still have about 90,000 votes in the county still to count, but every update has dug the hole deeper, so we need something dramatic to happen.

    CA-45 like CA-27 making progress, but not coming in as quickly here, so I’m less optimistic here.

    CA-47 is a surprise. Lost half the margin today. Today was the shift from USPS ballots to drop box, and the drop box were more R favored. There’s another 90,000 drop box to go, so it could be these were more geographically disfavored to Porter and the rest will be better, or it could be that drop box is more R favored overall. There’s also vote center to do, and some other smaller categories, but this reversal has me a bit worried. My suspicion for it being geographic is based on CA-45 and CA-49 getting more D share from the same count than CA-47 did. I don’t see any reason why CA-47 would go in the opposite direction in terms of partisan lean. But if ballot boxes are broadly R lean, I don’t see any reason why vote center wouldn’t as well, and that’s bad news for Porter.

    CA-49 continues to inch out ground as expected. We’ll see if any reversal like seen in -47 shows up, but so far so good.

    Not a very good update overall. Maybe a glimmer in CA-27. CA-49 looking okay. Still up in CA-47.

  177. 177.

    Kent

    @karen marie:@Fake Irishman:   I saw a quick thing on the bird thing earlier today that whatever the bill is, not everyone is happy.  It’s said to allow states to opt out of same-sex marriage.  Seems insane to have a bill that would do that but these are not sane times.  It also makes me question what will be in a federal abortion bill.

    How the fuck do you opt out of same-sex marriage in this day and age?  Are they going to cancel hundreds of thousands of same-sex marriages that already exist in those states?  They going to not recognize marriages that occurred in other states?  How would that even work?  It obviously would be unconstitutional.

  178. 178.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @karen marie: If the bill allows states to opt out of gay marriage that would be bad, but how bad depends on what that means. If states get to opt out of performing gay marriages, but not opt out of recognizing marriages that are performed elsewhere, then that is manageable. If you are suddenly not married when you cross state lines, though, that would cause chaos.

  179. 179.

    Chetan Murthy

    Since we’re talkin’ about AZ, I wonder if others who saw that Blake Masters Walther PPK video had flashbacks to the first season of Dexter, and the character of “Brian” (“Biney”, pronounced like “spiny”), the serial-killer brother ?

  182. 182.

    Fake Irishman

    So for those of you keeping score at home, that leaves the Dems net +2 in governorships for the cycle in comparison to net -5 in 2010.

    and Sisolak damn near pulled Nevada out of the fire (and even there we got what we needed in almost all of the other most important offices)

  183. 183.

    Geminid

    @Fake Irishman: I noticed that Adrian Fontes, the Democratic candidat3 for Secretary of State, was declared the winner in his race on November 12. I wonder if him being a Latino made the difference..

  184. 184.

    raven

    @Kent: My friends were legally married in New York but had to move back to Australia because one of them couldn’t get a green card. Not the same but it still pisses me off.

  185. 185.

    zhena gogolia

    Great news! The NYT used a picture of Lake for one of their “red wave” stories, and it gave me Palin-style creeps.

  187. 187.

    Scout211

    Walker’s campaign is realizing that fundraising in the GOP is all about the grift.

    Republican politicians and associated committees are sending out desperate fundraising emails begging the GOP faithful to help save America by getting behind Herschel Walker in his Dec. 6 runoff race against Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock.

    But what’s not immediately clear to recipients is how little of that money is going to Walker’s campaign: just a dime for every dollar given by small donors.

    Walker’s campaign, which has trailed Warnock’s in fundraising throughout the election, is now asking fellow Republicans to stop their fundraising practices — or at least start sharing more with thecandidate.

    “We need everyone focused on winning the Georgia Senate race, and deceptive fundraising tactics by teams that just won their races are siphoning money away from Georgia,” Walker campaign manager Scott Paradise told NBC News on Monday.

  191. 191.

    Ken

    @Scout211: Maybe it’s just cynical old me, but I hear “I want my cut too” in Scott Paradise’s plea.

    But this story reminds me, did the Republicans ever find out what happened to all that money they gave Rick Scott to elect Republican senators?

  194. 194.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Chetan Murthy: Before Obergefell, it was weird that way. People could get married in a state, but not have it recognized by the federal government or other states. It was this legal limbo. If marriages are recognized by the feds, but only some states, it will go to court and Thomas, et al will finally get their chance to wreck some families.

  196. 196.

    Qrop Non Sequitur

    @Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: It won’t be Clarence Thomas or the Supreme Court destroying families, it will be the States. The Great Ruth Bader Ginsburg said herself it should be that way.

    /wingnut

    ETA: It’s nice to see the originalist crowd put words in the mouths of dead people in real time.

  199. 199.

    WaterGirl

    I have been so wound up about Katie Hobbs and the House races that I forgot to say how great I think several of MazeDancer’s postcards are.

    I think #56 and #58 are my favorites.

  202. 202.

    PaulB

    @Chetan Murthy:  How can that happen?

    Article IV, Section 1: Full Faith and Credit shall be given in each State to the public Acts, Records, and judicial Proceedings of every other State.

    It’s possible. See, for example, marriage between cousins, which is illegal in some states, legal in others. From a cursory search, it looks like the courts have mostly, but not always, required recognition of marriages performed in other states. This Wikipedia article claims that there are multiple states where “out-of-state marriages by state’s residents void.”

    No matter what, if anything, that Congress passes, this will go back to the Supreme Court, potentially multiple times.

  203. 203.

    Jackie

    @frosty: The race for AZ Lt Gov is still to close to call… the Dem is ahead with a very narrow lead. So still some finger crossing to do.

  204. 204.

    Geminid

    @Fake Irishman: That’s right. Mr. Finchem. I think he was from out of state, too.

    I was very glad yo see Mr. Fontes win. People keep trying to figure out put how Democrats can appeal to Larino voters. It seems to me that way is to elect candidates from their community.

  205. 205.

    Wyatt Salamanca

    @zhena gogolia:

    it gave me Palin-style creeps.

    I look forward to Palin being swept into the trash bin of history after her loss is officially declared by the media she despises.

  206. 206.

    Suzanne

    I’m thrilled, of course.

    It’s so weird. Kari Lake read the news for EVER on Phoenix TV. She always seemed perfectly unobjectionable. To find out she was batshit crazy was really upsetting, like feeling like you were robbed by someone you trusted.

  208. 208.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Suzanne:

    It’s always disappointing to find out someone you liked is terrible. Dean Cain played one of the best Clark Kents I’ve ever seen. He’s a fundie moron. Go figure. Makes you wonder what he thought of the writing on the show regarding his character, presuming he was a fundie back then. Same with Kevin Sorbo on Hercules

  210. 210.

    Kelly

    @Suzanne: Bill O’Reilly was an ordinary Portland, OR TV new guy in the mid 1980’s. It can go the other way. Beloved Oregon Gov Tom McCall was a Portland TV news guy.

  212. 212.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @Suzanne: i used to see her on Twitter(never officially followed her.) She’s been nuts for at least 3 years. Somebody said she was using this as a stepping stone to a Fox News gig and I agree with that. There’s some hosts on Fox who are getting stale. Kari might freshen the brand up some. Either that or she ends up on Newmax/OAN etc.

  213. 213.

    Fake Irishman

    @Kelly:

    It can also swing wildly in all directions. Jerry Springer was a respected newsman and mayor of Cincinnati before….well… everything else.

  214. 214.

    Mai Naem mobile

    @Scout211: i think it could go the other way if they’re only 1-2 seats. The Dems might convince a GOPr or two to switch parties. Would you rather be with a sure to over reach GOP dumpster fire House or a non crazy Dem controlled  House?

  215. 215.

    Suzanne

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I didn’t like her or watch her. Just…. she was like plain wallpaper that is present in a room, but that you don’t really notice. Billboards with her face on them as you drive around town, on commercials as you watch other shows, sometimes on in the waiting room at the doctor’s office, that kind of thing. Like….the last person I would have expected to be a lunatic.

  217. 217.

    Scout211

    @Mai Naem mobile: Exactly.

    The first reply to that wsj tweet that I posted was:

    100 bucks says Pelosi is doing this too and she’s not letting it leak.

    Cuellar reportedly refused to switch parties.

  218. 218.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Mai Naem mobile: Dems won’t be able to convince any current Rs to go D. It is possible, but unlikely, they could get a wavering one to switch to I. I can’t imagine who would be a good target for that, though.

  219. 219.

    bbleh

    @Scout211: @Mai Naem mobile: I’d doubt you’d see MCs formally switching parties, not least because (1) no single MC holds the balance of power and (2) s/he would likely would have a very rough time in the following election.  Rather, I think you’ll see lots of bargaining over particular issues, Republicans fighting to hold their very narrow majority, Dems trying to peel off enough votes to pass a discharge petition and a bill, and all against a background of various Republican factions jockeying against each other for power.

    Having the Speakership and the majority has material advantages, but when things are this close, and so many Republicans are batsh!t crazy, I don’t think being in the majority will be an unalloyed advantage for Republicans, not by a long shot.

  220. 220.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Suzanne:

     

    To find out she was batshit crazy was really upsetting, like feeling like you were robbed by someone you trusted.

    Pretty much how many of us here felt when we found out that Baud is a furry. When we found Omnes is too? No one was surprised.

  226. 226.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Suzanne:

    Ah gotcha. I guess we don’t always know who people truly are on the inside, for better or worse. Some are just better at hiding it than others and later let the mask slip. Some are radicalized

  227. 227.

    Suzanne

    Ughhhhh, just saw that Andy Biggs wants to challenge McCarthy for Speaker. Biggs is THE WORST. Like Gaetz, MTG levels of odious.

  228. 228.

    CaseyL

    @bbleh: I don’t know about that.  GOPers are good at falling in line – but they need a strong Daddy figure to fall in line behind.  I don’t see McCarthy as that Daddy; however, I can see Elise Stefanik in that role.  She is a cold and conscienceless climber, and I think they like that.

  230. 230.

    Scout211

    The Oregonian has called OR-06 for Democrat Andrea Salinas.

    That means Democrats will control four of Oregon’s six seats in the U.S. House. Salinas and Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who won the 5th Congressional District race, will be Oregon’s first two Latinas in Congress. In total, Oregon will send four women to the House.

  232. 232.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @zhena gogolia:

    I’ve only watched a few clips online of him in that role and he’s alright, I suppose. Those types of shows from back then always had this kind of cheesiness to them that was charming and entertaining. Same with Xena. It’s not high art, but it was entertaining

  234. 234.

    Dan B

    @Kent: The way the Respect for Marriage Bill works is: States do not have to perform weddings but must recognize marriages performed in other states.  It was crafted to get support from enough GOP to avoid a filibuster.

    If Obergefell I’d shot down by the supremes then the Feds and all states would recognize same sex marriages.  I think it may also provide protection if Lawrence is shot down.

  235. 235.

    Brachiator

    AP has called for Hobbs.  And now WaPo and CNN and … game over.

    I’ve been working and been away from media and the Internets. This is great news.

    I look forward to a formal concession from Lake. Ha ha ha…

    Still I will not gloat too much. Just feel relief.

  236. 236.

    HumboldtBlue

    @bbleh: ​ 

    It’s gonna be a clusterfuck. No one in the GOP can’t herd this group of mewling fuckwits, chucklefucks and fumbledicks, it’ll be two wasted years, but I think any real harm will be mitigated by the repubs in disarray.

  237. 237.

    bbleh

    @CaseyL: Concur, and I don’t think they’ll have a Strong Daddy.  I think McCarthy is likely to get what he wants, but he’ll be wounded and weak right from the start.  I don’t think any of the Crazies will have anywhere near enough support to beat him — not even Stefanik (who, after all, is a girl) — but they will make his life even more of a hell than they made Boehner’s and Ryan’s.  They’re gonna turn the House into a circus, which in turn will create opportunities for Dems to pick off ones in purple districts on particular issues.  And in a contest of vote-wrangling between McCarthy and Pelosi, um, lol.

    @HumboldtBlue: this also, too.

  239. 239.

    bbleh

    @Dan B: “Presenting … Sir Kevin of Malarkey!” [out-of-tune trumpet flourish. standard-bearer attempts heroic wave, stabs self in crotch, collapses. McCarthy trips on step, face-plants, farts loudly]

  240. 240.

    Fake Irishman

    @Dan B:

    This isn’t ideal, but it protects some really important practical core rights. (And I’m thinking about where we were in 2004 at this time when everyone was saying how being anti gay was giving the GOP a permanent majority…. Things have changed)

  244. 244.

    Captain C

    The Republican House Leadership elections are going to be like a British Tory Party conference, but with every candidate for every position thinking they’re the real Flobablob, aren’t they?

  245. 245.

    James E Powell

    @Suzanne:

    It’s always seemed to me, as I’ve travelled around the country, that all those Action News Teams look the same in every city.

  246. 246.

    NotMax

    @Captain C

    Hey, Louis Gohmert’s calendar is clear come January 3rd, at which time he can slide into the Speakership without any distractions from that pesky legislating.

    Just sayin’.

    //

  248. 248.

    Dan B

    @gwangung: The Sadistic Six have hidden behind the excuse that most privacy protections were granted by activist judges and not congress or spelled out in the original constitution.  I wonder what their next fig Leafs will be when they go after the rest.  They seem to loathe the inability of States to control behavior they find disgusting or sinful.  The fact that no one is hurt by what is private behavior does not register because they are offended by its existence.

  252. 252.

    Jackie

    Anyone surprised?

    “Donald Trump hoarded $94 million this election in his various political committees as his anointed candidates lost the Senate for Republicans in tight races where that money might have made the difference between winning and losing,” the HuffPost reports.

    Said one Trump adviser: “We didn’t lose because of Trump’s rhetoric. We lost because Trump is cheap. He left them all hanging dry…. It gave a free shot for all the right-wing pundits to turn on him.”

    From Political Wire

  253. 253.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @gwangung: I hope that isn’t the case. If it passes and the protections for gay marriage end up weak enough that it goes to the Supremes, then that will take a few years. A lot can happen in a few years.

  255. 255.

    J R in WV

    @Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg:

    All that Team D created was the nonentity that was Barack Obama.

    Wife, as a 30-year AP correspondent, watches the political conventions from start to finish, now that they are available on TV that way. We watched the 2004 Dem Convention, and saw that funny looking black guy with the funny name give one of the best political speeches in modern American history live.

    Peggy Noonan thought it was stupid, and a sign of the failure of the Democratic Party. How about that!?!! I thought “I’m listening to the next president of the United States~!!”

    Maybe I should be writing political analysis and making the big bucks? I also thought the R’s expecting a Red Wave this year was stupid… how about that!!?! Told Wife that on Monday night…. should have posted, then everyone would know that I’m a political genius!

  256. 256.

    J R in WV

    @Joseph Patrick Lurker: ​
     

    How is it humanly possible for anyone to dislike Steve Kornacki?

    He should stick to calling real horse races at a big track somewhere. Terrible speech patterns for TV news. I guess he’s probly a nice buy off camera at a bar.

  257. 257.

    karen marie

    @Geminid:   I don’t think Fontes’ win had much, if anything, to do with his ancestry.  Fontes is a known quantity in the state – known to not be insane, where Finchem couldn’t keep the spittle down.  There just aren’t enough truly crazy people here – see, eg, the presidential results.  I’d be interested in the breakdown of people who skipped checking any box in that race to learn how many Republicans couldn’t hold their nose for Finchem but will never vote for a Dem.

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