Heading into the midterms, the media misjudged the electorate—and underestimated President Joe Biden.
“Just about everything the media suggested voters didn’t care about, they cared about passionately,” writes @MollyJongFast. https://t.co/kdBTC5Xevc
— VANITY FAIR (@VanityFair) November 14, 2022
Worth the read, and not just for the rare mea culpa:
… Not only did the media misjudge the electorate, they also underestimated President Joe Biden. Look, I’ve been there myself. Almost three years ago, I wrote an op-ed for The Washington Post where I obnoxiously wrote, “Not to get too technical about it, but I would like to postulate that the Democratic front-runner should be, you know, in front.” Biden went on to win South Carolina, Florida, Illinois, and Arizona shortly after my piece ran. In the end, Biden won 2,687 delegates in the Democratic primary, crushing the rest of the field. Biden then went on to beat Trump 306 to 232 in the Electoral College (and by more than 7 million in the popular vote). Biden won critical swing states Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia…
I asked White House chief of staff Ron Klain about this chronic case of underestimating Biden. Klain wrote, “He has been underestimated as a candidate, as a president, and as a party leader—and he has delivered historical results in all three roles. As a candidate, he beat the previously unvanquished Donald Trump; as a president, he delivered critical legislation with the narrowest of margins on Capitol Hill; and now, as party leader, he has achieved a midterm result unmatched since FDR’s time. He does it by laying out what he stands for, fighting hard to get it done, and speaking earnestly from the heart. He has kept together the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party, built an administration that looks like the country, and pursued policies that inspire young voters, middle-aged voters, and older voters. President Biden is underestimated because his triumphs are the triumph of wisdom, decency, and determination: values underappreciated in today’s media and political culture.”…
I don’t regret my fervent early advocacy, but I’ll agree with Senator Warren that President Biden is the man for this moment:
“This electoral success belongs to Mr. Biden, who ignored ivory-tower economists and out-of-touch pundits claiming that bold action to help families was bad politics,” writes @ewarren in a guest essay. https://t.co/C62kDHhVbA
— New York Times Opinion (@nytopinion) November 13, 2022
U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will make a stop this week in Albuquerque and will also visit both the Navajo and Hopi Nation for discussions with local and tribal leaders on roadway safety and infrastructure needs. More details to come. #nmpol pic.twitter.com/tu5usdsTvM
— Dan Boyd (@DanBoydNM) November 14, 2022
Just got back to the Capitol for the first time since Election Day. I’m honored to have another 2 years here, but also hit me that over 170 of my new colleagues deny or question results of 2020 election. ? of Congress. Catch your breath and rest up, but please stay in the fight. pic.twitter.com/6xpsMRKoOI
— Andy Kim (@AndyKimNJ) November 14, 2022
I believe in America. https://t.co/Z5lsx3saF1
— Panda Parody Bernstein (@J4Years) November 15, 2022
Time to offer Sinema an ambassadorship in a country where they make wine and like douchebags https://t.co/XDkCXLirWx
— Reconstructionist (@un_a_valeable) November 15, 2022
If Sinema campaigned for dems in Arizona Kelly and Hobbs may well have lost. Unironically, thank you for nothing, Kyrsten Sinema https://t.co/xIPiVfqUpG
— Hemry, Local Bartender (@BartenderHemry) November 14, 2022
its important to say this election is all the result of five justices in their black robes who were sooooo certain that they could get away with rolling back the rights of American citizens. they thought they were untouchable. they unleashed a miraculous midterm victory
— Reconstructionist (@un_a_valeable) November 13, 2022
And the good work continues:
I need to see the exact language, but if this summary is accurate, the Senate should pass the bill immediately. None of these "concessions" will change its core requirement: That the federal government and all 50 states must recognize same-sex marriages. https://t.co/wvWw6SkXeN
— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) November 14, 2022
The Senate bill operates exactly like the House version, forcing every state to grant full faith and credit to a marriage that’s valid in the jurisdiction that licensed it, and to respect rights arising from that marriage. I explained all this here: https://t.co/zA9vU9bdbX
— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) November 14, 2022
Baud
For some reason, the Today Show didn’t run their daily story about sky-high inflation this morning.
lowtechcyclist
@Baud:
The GQP isn’t talking about inflation anymore, so neither are the nets.
Scary that that’s really become the most obvious explanation
ETA: The coveted #2 spot. ;-)
cmorenc
@Baud:
Must be because of new economic reports released last Tuesday.
rikyrah
Good Morning Everyone 😊😊😊
Gin & Tonic
The first train from Kyiv to Mykolaiv since February 24 arrived this morning. People rightfully laud President Zelensky, but Alexander Kamyshin, the head of Ukrzaliznytsia (the national rail operator) is a formidable, inspiring and effective leader as well.
Baud
@rikyrah: Good morning.
Dorothy A. Winsor
The problem is that the Supreme Court is kind of untouchable.
On an unrelated note, it’s snowing.
rikyrah
@Baud:
Because, it’s after the election and it didn’t work.
Same reason that you haven’t heard shyt about the deficit when it came out that 46 has cut it more in one year than any other President.
Same reason why they lost interest in Ukraine – can’t use it to bash 46 over the head
lowtechcyclist
When all the random voters they talk to in those Ohio diners turn out to be GQP operatives, it does kinda skew their perceptions.
Ken
Brave souls that they are. I will be interested to see the (R) sponsors, and also the final vote.
rikyrah
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
It is. But, I am very interested in the clown case that they were going to use to help the GOP steal 2024, now that none of the thievery components are in place in the states.😒😒
Sanjeevs
Something else they ignore about Biden is that he is slowly resurrecting foreign policy.
Two examples:
He has repeatedly warned the wingnutty U.K. Conservatives not to fuck with the Northern Ireland Peace Agreement. They Brexiters wanted to wreck it to keep the fights with the EU active.
He has engaged with Marcos in the Philippines. Duterte was to Xi what Trump is to Putin but it looks like Blinken’s diplomacy has improved relations considerably.
NotMax
Only because a number of folks made positive mention of it in Sunday’s media thread. Have not seen any of it myself.
Layer8Problem
@Baud: Interesting. Any NPR-listeners notice if inflation’s still a hot topic there?
sdhays
@lowtechcyclist: I wonder if trips to Ohio diners will decrease now that it seems Ohio has decided to be like West Virginia. Even less interesting hearing what Ohio Republicans think now that it’s pretty clearly not a swingy state.
sdhays
@Sanjeevs: Ugh, for awhile there Speaker Pelosi was handling foreign policy because the TFG administration was AWOL on warning Britain not to destroy the Good Friday Accords. It’s so nice to have a functioning State Department (well, a functioning government at all).
Betty Cracker
My favorite image from the AZ gov race:
A hearty good riddance to Lake, but I still want to know how she got the soft focus treatment from every camera. I don’t think soft focus is a thing in the wild.
Ken
@rikyrah: Also, the Michigan legislature is now held by Democrats, and Pennsylvania is either Democratic or close, so “the legislature can ignore the vote and send their own slate of electors” may not
have the partisan hack appealmeet the deep constitutional standards that it seemed to.Scout211
A little OT but this just just made me shocked and furious. But thank goodness that students now bring their cell phones to class. And yes, it’s Texas. But the teacher was swiftly fired for being an avowed racist in class!
Ken
@Betty Cracker: Do human costumes come with a cloaking device? It’s been a while since I’ve seen the Men in Black movies.
Dorothy A. Winsor
At book club yesterday, a woman said her husband’s favorite book is Atlas Shrugged. I know her husband, and that explains a lot about him.
MisterForkbeard
@NotMax: This is a little unfortunate, because the first two episodes are the worst ones of the series. They’re still good! But the awesomeness really starts to kick in around ep 3.
lowtechcyclist
@sdhays:
Who knows? Other than their seeing the world through affluent white male eyes, and chasing every ball the GQP rolls down the street, I don’t have much of a grasp on today’s media. (Come to think of it, those two factors explain plenty by themselves.)
They need to hire more women and persons of color who can see the things that have been in their blind spots. And term limits on op-ed columnists would be a great idea. Having the same voices on one’s op-ed page for decades really makes no sense.
Ken
I just have to face it: I am old.
MisterForkbeard
@Scout211: I’m a little not sure about this one, honestly. The teacher isn’t wrong necessarily but he taught this very wrong.
When I was in high school (and college) this was usually explained as “people tend to prefer their own cultures and groups, and everyone comes with a LOT of unknown biases and baggage”. Or unofficially “everyone is a little racist”.
My highschool sociology teacher did the thing where he talked about how everyone in one country wears yellow sunglasses, and everyone in another country wears red ones. But when someone moves from one country to the other they see orange because they never take their original glasses off.
This is a valuable lesson! If the teacher was more competent and/or less racist, this would have been a good teachable moment!
Nicole
@Scout211: I’m glad to hear he’s out of a job. I watched that video and ooooof.
I think that is part of the perniciousness of racism- these bigots really believe that they’re not wrong; that in fact everyone else thinks the same way they do. I know, as someone White, I’ve had complete strangers say things to me that left me going, “What. the. fuck. made. you. think. I. wanted. to. hear. that.” But they really thought, as I looked like them, I thought like them.
Fifteen years ago I would shrug it off. Now I call them out on it because it’s fun watching their brains explode inside their heads.
MisterForkbeard
@MisterForkbeard: Note that I haven’t actually watched the video and might have missed some really important context.
zhena gogolia
Now they’ve turned their attention to harping that he shouldn’t run in 2024. And they’re having the usual influence over normies. It’s Hillary’s e-mails all over again.
Betty Cracker
@sdhays: Good question. I think the media also has to accept that Florida is now a solidly red state and stop acting like it’s a surprise when a wingnut carries it. We haven’t had a Democratic governor since the 1990s. I don’t think we’ve had a Democratic statehouse since the Dixiecrat days. If I can accept the deeply unpleasant (to me) fact that Florida is a more diverse, populous and beachy Mississippi, by dog so can the media!
OzarkHillbilly
@Scout211: I applaud him for his honesty. I prefer my racists out in the open.
Subsole
@Baud:
Huh.
What a staggeringly fortuitous alignment of unrelated events.
Lady WereBear
I didn’t expect everything to turn into a miniseries.
But I love this new turn of events and all the new characters.
Ken
Actually, it’s Alabama’s beaches you stole.
Brachiator
@Sanjeevs:
The Tories have temporarily turned to immigrant bashing and attempts to undermine Prime Minister Sunak.
Ken
There’s a hunting joke in there somewhere.
OFFS
And avowed racist? Jesus Christ did you even hear what he said after “let me finish”? A credulous and naive teacher yes. But gosh aren’t “white people” always supposed to “own up to their own prejudices”? You can’t f****** have it both ways. Of course they have crucified him for it, it was a dumb thing to do, just like the dumb celebration comments you’re making. But the world is a better place now, sure.
schrodingers_cat
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Is he a teenager?
Soprano2
@Baud: Imagine that! Maybe NPR will stop the continual drumbeat too, since now it can’t help R’s anymore.
Soprano2
@Dorothy A. Winsor: It snowed here last night, about 1/2″ or so. I don’t like winter, never have never will.
Marmot
@Scout211: That’s a suburb of Austin. The nearby Round Rock ISD also just fended off a slate of fascist nuts going apeshit about “ CRTs and LGBTs.”
And yes, it’s Texas. It’s big and diverse and not everyone here is the same—seems you have yet to figure that out. Our cities are all blue and the hinterlands are red, and there’s a lot of hinter.
Brachiator
@Scout211:
A portion of the video that went viral show the students, white and black, reacting with shock and then disdain, but keeping their cool.
At one point, one of the kids says “I don’t think I can respect you any more.”
To which the teacher says, “You should respect me more.” The kid stands firm and replies “No.”
It’s sad that the students had to deal with this, but they responded with far more maturity than the dipshit teacher.
Soprano2
Yep, it’s so strange how suddenly all the political people lost interest in the deficit./s/s/s/s/s/s/s/s/s/
davecb
@Dorothy A. Winsor wrote:
In Canada, the legislators were so worried about the supreme court that they added an override, in case of emergency.
What happened? Provincial Premiers now use it to override human, religious and labour rights. Exactly what they said they feared the courts would do.
Marmot
@Ken: Me too. First time I’ve heard of linear TV.
BlueGuitarist
@rikyrah: good morning!
@Betty Cracker: excellent!
@AL top: smart point re offering Cinema an ambassadorship
Soprano2
@Layer8Problem: I haven’t heard a story this morning, but I haven’t listened to all of Morning Edition either. I’m sure it’ll fade away from their airwaves too now that the midterms are over.
Betty Cracker
@Marmot: & @Ken: It’s a common term in the advertising biz. Even olds in that sector know it!
different-church-lady
@Baud: Yes. Isn’t it funny that nobody talks about inflation anymore. Isn’t it peculiar? What could possibly explain it?
MisterDancer
@Scout211:
JFC. I spent years thinking White Was Right. Still fight that thinking to this day.
I have half a notion to write about growing up Black in the Reagan Era, about how entertainment just decided racism was dead, and where that abdication of what too many people fought and bled and worse to bring to the forefront, got us.
People like this are one example, the people who haven’t, in fact, thought about anything around race from anyone’s perspective but their and their wee circle of friends.
Moreover: even if his intentions were perfect (which I doubt), it was deeply unprofessional to say to adults — much less a bunch of grade-school kids.
Ugh. Fuck!
PS Those kids are a hell of a lot more insightful than this now-fired “teacher”. It’s worth listening to the videos, if you have time.
H.E.Wolf
Only for Republicans. The rest of us don’t “joke” about putting people in the crosshairs.
Kay
@sdhays:
The amusing part, to me, is it makes more normie, higher income Republicans nervous. They don’t want to be considered West Virginia. I say “Nope – it’s blood red now. Faaaarrrr Right. Hope you’re happy”.
BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️
@Betty Cracker: I wouldn’t have wished it on you. Sorry.
Signed,
An Alabamian who gets it
BlueGuitarist
State house race news from New Hampshire, which has the largest state house of representative 400 seats. (2nd largest Pennsylvania: 203)
Win by margin of 1 vote for NH House seat for Democrat Maxine Mosley, seat flips after recount. File under: Every vote counts
Another recount upheld a Democratic win over Republican Rick Devoid. File under: Names too on the nose for fiction.
From NHPR
https://www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2022-11-14/recount-flips-n-h-house-seat-to-democrats-trimming-gop-margin-in-state-house
Shalimar
@Baud: Don’t worry. either NBC or CBS had a story yesterday about how much more expensive turkeys are this year. The entire Christmas season is going to be “oh my God, X costs so much more now.”
MisterForkbeard
@OFFS: That was sort of my initial response (still haven’t watched the video), but I think it was poorly taught. Phrasing it more as a “We all have our own biases and science shows that everyone by default tends to prefer their own group” might have worked.
Ken
@H.E.Wolf: Good point, and thank you.
BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️
@MisterDancer: It’s that whole saying the quiet parts out loud thing, yet again.
japa21
Not only underappreciated by the media, unheard of by many of them and all of the GOP.
Marmot
@Betty Cracker: I was in advertising not long ago, but not TV. I was amazed at how often and freely I heard the term “on digital,” so freely that it never really seemed to have a clear definition. Very weird field.
To me, it means using your fingers to count.
Brachiator
@different-church-lady:
Because people are talking about the election, which is still undecided?
Because of Musk’s spectacular self-own over Twitter?
In the UK, the conventional wisdom is that the effect of inflation is about to plunge that country into a recession, which may last as long as two years.
Good thing we don’t have anything to worry about on the economic front.
Baud
@Brachiator: As long as there’s a Democrat in the White House, there will always be something to worry about on the economic front as far as the media is concerned.
There have always been other things going on in the world. It never stopped the media from running the same inflation story every day.
Ken
I assume something more important is now getting play, like the ebola caravans’ war on Christmas.
(I am vaguely interested in what is chosen as the new “issue”. There’s a few things we can definitely rule out, like “Why did the media screw up its pre-election reporting so badly?”)
different-church-lady
I don’t think that.
This reminds me of rapists who say things like “everybody has rape fantasies.” NO EVERYONE FUCKING DOESN’T.
Kay
@Shalimar:
I think they go with a classic “Republicans are inching back from the brink of crazy and becoming more moderate”. Every two years they roll it out, like clockwork, since 2010. They just want Republicans to succeed much more than they want Democrats to succeed.
different-church-lady
@Ken:
Because they wanted to. SATSQ.
EarthWindFire
@Scout211: So that’s what they meant by teaching about race, good and bad? 😡
WaterGirl
@NotMax: Thanks for that! I set Tivo to record it on FX. Well, as a season pass actually, so it will catch the second episode a week later.
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: It’s snowing here, too! When I woke up and took Henry out, it was a winter wonderland.
MisterForkbeard
@Kay: Yep. They have a huge interest in making Republicans more palatable and for a number of reasons.
But the Republicans aren’t. None of them are. They’ve learned that they can make a single speech talking about bipartisanship or refusing to say that Trump is the God-King and then act, vote, and advocate for insane things. And the media will focus on that ONE lying moment to say they’re moderate.
There was an example of this in the past couple of days. There was a Republican who refused to laud Trump once in a debate. That was held up for the entire campaign season as being a reasonable person. And yet, it turns out he made private apologies to Trump and spent the rest of the campaign as a Trump sycophant, none of which received any media coverage at all.
Brachiator
@MisterForkbeard:
Jesus Fucking Christ. The teacher was not instructing kids about biases. He declared that he felt he was superior because he was white.
Here is a snippet of the video.
Part of the background to this is that one of the kids had complained to his father that he thought the teacher was not helping him improve his grades because of his racist beliefs. The kid’s father initially was incredulous until the video captured what was happening.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker: Maybe because “she is one of their own”, so the camera people use soft focus?
Betty Cracker
@BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️: Thanks. In retrospect, I can see I held onto the state’s swingy potential for far longer than was reasonable. Just admitting it’s as red as a baboon’s ass and adjusting my expectations accordingly is liberating, in a sense. :)
lowtechcyclist
@Marmot: And with respect to certain men’s health issues, a ‘digital exam’ doesn’t mean digital as opposed to analog. It means digital as in digit, or finger.
OzarkHillbilly
Texas man faces charges for allegedly slipping abortion drug in wife’s drink
EarthWindFire
@lowtechcyclist: My spouse once asked me what kind of computer would be used for his digital exam. I held up my hand and wiggled my fingers.
Marmot
@lowtechcyclist: And a comedy sketch is born!
Betty Cracker
@WaterGirl: My husband and I were laughing about it the other day. It reminded us of the “soft focus” treatment for women in the original Star Trek series.
Baud
@MisterForkbeard:
If a teacher had messed up teaching sex ed that badly, he’d probably be arrested.
Chief Oshkosh
@MisterForkbeard: Agreed. After seeing the whole thing, I think he’s very poorly describing implicit bias.
Soprano2
@zhena gogolia: Isn’t it amazing they double down after these midterms?
kindness
I clicked over to Vanity Fair to read that Molly Jong Fast article. I was very unimpressed to see she cites Chris Cillizza babbling his normal schtick as a marker for our Media Elites. Well he kinda was I just wish Molly had been more forward about identifying him as an idiot.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@schrodingers_cat: Very much not!
Brachiator
@Baud:
We have been over this before. Inflation is a worldwide problem. This year it has toppled governments. In the UK they dumped a Conservative Prime Minister in part because of a spectacular mishandling of the economy. And the knives are already out should the chancellor’s revised budget fail to address key problems.
It’s not just about the media hating Democrats.
And as I noted before, exit polls indicated that inflation was important to voters. But they put it into perspective along with abortion and other matters. They rejected the glib view of idiot media and pundits that inflation meant that voters would automatically vote for Republicans.
Marmot
@Betty Cracker: Gives you a more long-term perspective, right? And more of a focus on local politics. At least, that’s how I see it.
WaterGirl
@Chief Oshkosh: I guess I missed the part where he immediately follows up with the strong statement “but I fight it every day, and all of us have to be aware of our implicit bias and fight it every day, because it’s a dark part of all of us.”
Oh wait, he didn’t say anything resembling that. There is no excuse for what he said. That guy is one racist cracker.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
IMO, Florida is too big and too diverse for Democrats to write off before they figure out what happened there. Ohio is easy to explain- the gaping rural nutjob margins cannot be overcome even with a majority in urban centers and suburbs. Ohio has much simpler demographics than Florida – we have AA, white people and a (relatively) small percentage of Latinos.
They shouldn’t put any money into campaigns until they figure out why they keep losing, but they should figure out why they keep losing. I think it’s hard to find honest actors in that game though – there’s a lot of grifters and people with axes to grind in the “why do we lose” analysis biz.
Brachiator
@lowtechcyclist:
Such an exam would be very uncomfortable if you used a log instead of a digit.
ETA. Did you hear the joke about the math teacher who would get off on a tangent?
Baud
@Brachiator:
You keep underestimating the bias in reporting because inflation is newsworthy.
Betty Cracker
One strength Biden shares with Pelosi: both are willing to check their egos at the door to get shit done. It sounds simple, but I think that quality is rare and incredibly valuable. It’s something I recognized in Pelosi ages ago but failed to fully appreciate in Biden until fairly recently.
Marmot
@WaterGirl:
Yep. Civilization is slowly pushing its way through Williamson County and Williamson-adjacent Pflugerville (where that guy is). He’s a relic.
Montanareddog
@Brachiator: That teacher, of course, will now be able to make bank on the wingnut Wurlitzer because he has been cancelled by the woke mob, his 1st amendment rights violated.
Or, if he prefers a long-term career change, pleny of police departments will open their doors to him
Betty Cracker
@Kay: I agree 100%, not least because Florida is often a microcosm of America, and we don’t want what happened here repeated on a national scale.
@Marmot: I’m still working it out, but that makes sense.
BlueGuitarist
@Betty Cracker:
QFT
Ken
You are speaking of the next chair of the Texas Board of Education.
Immanentize
@WaterGirl: It was in Pflugerville. Part of the North of Austin White People’s Redout. That is, I assure you, the commonest of common wisdom in that town.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
Republicans in Ohio believe the suburbs around the urban areas are Democratic now, primarily. That they became more liberal. But while that was happening rural counties were going from 45D/55R or 40/60 to 30/70 or even 25/75.
There’s no simple expanation like that for Florida. It’s a huge state with regions and lots and lots of diversity. And its going to keep growing because unlike Ohio it’s warm and sunny with beaches :)
Democrats can’t just walk away. It’s too valuable.
Immanentize
@Kay: Isn’t the Occam Razor issue for the similarities between Ohio and Florida : aging white people with grievances?
Even when I lived in Miami in the late 80’s the seeds were planted: bumper stickers said, “Last one out of Miami, bring the flag.” All understood what that “one” referred to.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@OzarkHillbilly: How much you want to bet that until very recently, he described himself as ‘pro-life’?
Marmot
@Immanentize: It’s not. Pflugerville is growing faster than fast, and the demographics are extremely diverse—from the local NPR affiliate:
Immanentize
@Kay: But the people moving to Florida, outside of South American immigrants/refugees, are retiring older white people. There is no “back to Florida” from the great migration among, e.g. African Americans in this country.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: Last night the watchdog group Florida Center for Government Accountability obtained documents regarding the Martha’s Vineyard migrant flight. I expect state media is reporting on this. Politico put up an article last night headlined:
The “DeSantis official” is Public Safety chief Larry Keefe, while as we know “Perla” is Perla Huerta, the recently retired Army Staff(?) Sergeant who recruited the migrants.
A Florida court ordered Desantis’s administration to release the documents. A Center for Accountability official, Michael Barfield is sure some documents were held back and said that the Center would try to compel their release too.
The Politico article also describes texts that the Center obtained from Gregg Abbott’s administration. One shows Desantis’s Chief of Staff, James Untmeir, texting Abbott CoS Luis Saenz contact info for Keefe. Untmeir added something that, in light of Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar’s probe into the possible criminal violations connected with the flight, made me laugh::
Kay
@Immanentize:
I don’t think so. Republicans have made real inroads into the most diverse parts of Florida. That has not happened in Ohio – instead the existing GOP base has just become super far Right and since we have quite a few rural counties unless we get a once in a lifetime candidate like Obama, we won’t get the super turnout we need in urban/suburbs. The Ohio math is simple, but hard to overcome. The Florida math is complicated. Democrats need to find honest experts who will look at it and break it down without the kind of ego and bullshit that you see where the expert is actually promoting some ideological preference or insisting he/she knows what every Latino is thinking.
JAFD
@BlueGuitarist:
In Pennsylvania, that means about 60,000 people per state representative – or, in the West Philly district where I lived, my Rep could visit every pollig place on Election Day. On foot. Twice.
So, some doofus comes out with map of PA, sized for smartphones, red and blue. Shows that there’s a lot of empty land in the middle of the state, and some districts don’t even get their own pixel …
Immanentize
@Marmot: but who still has the power in Pflugerville? All Republicans, no? Not the diverse population you pointed to. Maybe in 20 years? It is the same answer as why did Uvalde vote for Abbott.
Brachiator
@Baud:
You keep underestimating the reality of inflation. The Fed is raising interest rates. Social Security posted the largest cost of living increase in 20 plus years, but is still not sufficient. SNAP benefits increased by 12.5 percent because of, say it with me, inflation.
The standard deduction and other key federal rates have been automatically adjusted for inflation.
All of these adjustments have been made because of economic reality, not media reporting.
Also, as noted, media reporting about inflation did not send voters scurrying into the arms of Republicans.
So, how would the US be different if the media did not report on inflation?
Lady WereBear
@Betty Cracker: Is it me, or is Lake’s soft focus downright bathroom window blur?
Betty Cracker
@Immanentize: It’s not that simple, IMO. The population has tripled in Florida since 1960, and it’s not all old white folks moving here, though I agree the aging demographic (and where they are moving from) has to be taken into account. The African American population in Florida is higher than the national average, IIRC. More than a quarter of the population is Latino. It’s very complex.
Kay
@Immanentize:
I don’t think that’s true either. I think Florida has had huge population growth outside of retirees and immigrants.
Republicans didn’t abandon California although it’s a huge blue state. They had some success there just this cycle.
Immanentize
@Kay: I agree with this. The most surprising shift in Florida for me was when Rick Scott won (almost won?) The Puerto Rican vote in his Senate race against fossil Bill Nelson. That was shocking as it was soon after Maria and a number of folks from P.R. had moved to Florida.
Is it the party leaders (like in NY)? Change in demographics? What?
Marmot
@Immanentize:
You’re forgetting your original comment, that “[rascism] is the commonest of common wisdom in that town.” And I’m saying you haven’t kept up.
The man is a relic.
OzarkHillbilly
@Marmot: Not me, I vote for the DEM where ever there is a DEM (many times not, who can blame them?), but it’s blood red results all the way down the ballot. So I focus on ballot issues instead.
Brachiator
@Montanareddog:
Somehow I don’t think a lot of people will be rushing to his defense.
Betty Cracker
@Kay:
Maybe that will actually happen this time. It did not after the unbroken string of previous election losses. I agree that it’s in the national party’s interest to take a look at this. I hope they don’t rely on the same scrum of local consultants to come up with conclusions that coincidentally align with their offerings.
Immanentize
@Betty Cracker: But to say it is super complicated is just another way to throw up hands, isn’t it? Why isn’t it super complicated for Republicans to continue to gain market share in Florida? That is a serious question. I don’t get it, but my guess is that someone could.
Meanwhile, Florida, which I loved, will start it’s serious livable land shrinkage soon in earnest.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Kay: The math in Ohio is hard to overcome as it is in MO. I am really interested in what you said before about rural younger women. Maybe there are real opportunities for in-roads there that are not being looked at. I give the GOP one thing.. they constantly look for any weakness in the Democratic coalition and then hammer it relentlessly. We could be a LOT better at that.
schrodingers_cat
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Liking Atlas Shrugged as a teen is somewhat forgivable. Not so much when you are an adult.
Soprano2
@Kay: MO is much the same, although Dems netted 3 seats in the state house this time – picked up 5 and lost 2. The rural population shrank while the urban population grew, so it’s getting harder for them to gerrymander themselves a supermajority. The shrinking of St Louis has a lot to do with MO’s conservative turn.
Kay
@Immanentize:
I don’t know – Florida is bewildering to me – I don’t pretend to understand it. But Democrats can’t walk away from a really diverse and growing state with 22 million people. Instead of throwing candidates at the wall and hoping they stick “this one is a former cop! this one used to be a Republican!” they should put some real money and expertise into figuring out why they keep losing. Step back and take stock.
Immanentize
@Marmot:
The idea that open racism in a diverse place is a “relic” and not still widespread and powerful is the most dangerous of fantasies. See, LA City Council chat.
Soprano2
@Baud: It’s not about them reporting on inflation, it’s how they report it. They almost always mention how Republicans blame Democrats for it, but it is a worldwide thing, so who knows the truth? 🙄🙄🙄
Cameron
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
“I hope you don’t have friends who recommend Ayn Rand to you. The fiction of Ayn Rand is as low as you can get re fiction. I hope you picked it up off the floor of the subway and threw it in the nearest garbage pail. She makes Mickey Spillane look like Dostoevsky.”
-Flannery O’Connor, The Habit of Being
AuntieBeak
Read this too fast and thought it said “media culpa.” I was very impressed by the wordplay. Then I looked again. YOU SHOULD TOTALLY EDIT THIS TO SAY “MEDIA CULPA.”
different-church-lady
@Brachiator: It’s not that reporting on inflation is the problem. It’s the PRICE INCREASES ARE THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS TO VOTERS THE DEMOCRATS ARE DOOOOMED framework of the reporting that’s the problem.
Inflation was the only thing that mattered. Until all of a sudden it wasn’t.
japa21
@Brachiator:
It’s not reporting on inflation, it is how it is reported. Until the most recent report (post election) all reporting focused on year over year figures, ignoring that month over month showed a major lessening in the inflation rate. Even when, in an interview, Biden brought up the point, he was spoken over by the interviewer to the extent that the whole point was lost.
Nor did the media point out the world wide inflation phenomenon, presenting it as a US only problem. Implication by omission. Therefore, they also chose to ignore the fact that inflation in the US was much lower than in most other countries.
No, inflation was not the number one issue for the majority of voters, but what about those for which it was Would it have been different if they had familiar with the facts? We will never know, but it may well have been the difference in at least one Senate race (Wisconsin) and several House seats.
Kay
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
I say it because I have so much direct experience with white working class younger women. In legal issues, because I was an active volunteer in the public school system over 30 years in a district where only 25% of parents have a college degree, because I seek them out for local elections and issues like school levies. I think they have put some distance between themselves and WWC men politically and all Democrats have to do is seek them out – it’s the direction they’re already going .
Baud
@Brachiator:
Well, we’ll just have to disagree and tolerate each other’s comments.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Soprano2:
Yes! 100% It is a reinforcing cycle. The more conservative the state gets, the more young people leave.
Cameron
@Betty Cracker: I’ve suggested to a couple of groups whose work I support that going county-by-county might be a useful path in Florida. If what the Florida League of Cities tells me is correct (?), there’s a possibility for change at the local level.
Marmot
@Immanentize:
You’re putting words in my mouth. As with Round Rock ISD, which rejected Zimmerman and the rest of the fascists, Pflugerville is headed in the right direction. Civilization is pushing through.
zhena gogolia
@Soprano2: Yes.
Immanentize
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
At one point about 10 years ago? the Gov. of Minnesota, I think it was, said that the State’s number one export was it’s young people.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Immanentize: That isn’t true for Minneapolis, though. Its a growing vibrant city. I think that has kept Minnesota blue.
Betty Cracker
@Immanentize: I don’t think acknowledging the complexity is the same as giving up at all. It’s rejecting simplistic solutions. Like you said, Republicans figured out how to make inroads. We have to do so as well.
@Kay: Michelle Goldberg has an interesting column about how Dems can appeal to young working class women in the NYT here. She analyzes Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s upset in a red district in Washington state.
@Cameron: That’s probably the path forward. In my county, every elected office is held by a Republican, and I don’t see that changing any time soon, but you have to start somewhere. And there are some FL counties that are truly purple; this just ain’t one of them.
Ivan X
I just read this profile of Alito and I promise it will put you in a bad mood! It doesn’t really tell you anything you didn’t already know: that he’s a retrograde power-drunk asshole who wants to remake the law and the country as he sees fit. But he’s really nice and polite in person!
Burnspbesq
@Nicole:
Doubly so, as Spouse’s grandkids are in that district.
Good widdance to bad wubbish.
MisterForkbeard
@Brachiator: It’s more that the media shouldn’t be reporting on inflation as Biden’s fault. Or something he has the ability to magically just fix and won’t. Because we saw a fair bit of that during the campaign season, and a complete lack of pushback by media figures when Republicans blamed literally all of inflation on Biden, not even noting that inflation was a worldwide issue.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: oh.
Cameron
@Betty Cracker: Yeah, I think where I live is pretty much controlled by Republicans, despite the Manatee County Democrats insisting to me that it’s all going to turn around any day now. Possibilities are there, though – my county commissioner was receptive to my suggestion to explore the possibility of creating adult playgrounds in Manatee and Sarasota counties, so much so that she answered my email within 15 minutes. Not a huge deal in the greater scheme of things, but considering that these two counties are God’s Waiting Room, I’ll welcome any response that indicates at least curiosity in the well-being of less-than-super-rich seniors.
Brachiator
@japa21:
Just not true. The media accurately reported that the Fed was watching and making its decisions on monthly reports.
The mechanism by which the Social Security cost of living adjustment was fairly reported on, especially noting that initial projections of a 10 percent increase was incorrect because the monthly reports showed inflation declining.
There were countries where angry citizens burnt down the president’s home and toppled governments. All of this was reported in the media.
Too many people get stuck on headline news, ignorant pundits and political spin on economic news.
Some folks here bash NPR, but apparently do not follow public radio programs that specifically focus on the economy.
There is absolutely shallow and biased reporting. And the US is not the worst offender. BBC BREXIT analysis has been uniformly terrible from the beginning even though they accurately report background information accurately.
But good economic news is out there and easy to find.
Nukular Biskits
@Betty Cracker:
… Florida is a more diverse, populous and beachy Mississippi, by dog so can the media!
This Mississippian resembles that remark.
;>)
Philbert
@Betty Cracker: Regarding Rick Scott, I heard that he was actually helpful to Puerto Rico with their hurricane disasters. Your thoughts?
Ha Nguyen
I believe Florida is getting redder because of the air of doom which climate change is bringing. I think conservatives / fascists gain power when people are scared and the Republicans sell a simple message – ignore the libs, they’re wrong. Climate change is not happening, keep us in power and we can stay in the past.
I don’t think we can break that mindset since Democrats are reality-based.
Hamlet of Melnibone
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Yup, Minnesota imports the young people of the more conservative states around it. 30 years ago I came from Wisconsin for college and stayed. If you’re young and from Wisconsin, the Dakotas, or Iowa, the Twin Cities is a pretty attractive destination.
Kay
@Ivan X:
I think the far Right justices help us politically. Far from cancelling them, my hope is they continue to attend GOP events and whine and moan and scold the public and demand respect and scraping subservience. They’re not appealing or attractive people and I don’t mean physically. They go to these Right wing echo chamber events because that is the ONLY place they will ever get the standing ovation they all demand and feel they are being unfairly denied.
JustRuss
Sadly true, and good on him for saying so.
Cameron
Republican red tide didn’t happen, but I saw a news item the other day that Nature’s own red tide is starting to come ashore on Gulf Coast Florida.
Brachiator
@MisterForkbeard:
Fair point. The party in power always gets too much credit for a good economy and too much blame for a weak economy.
And the political reporting on the economy, as opposed to straight economic reporting, is biased and abysmal.
Kay
One thing that is funny is how obsessed the GOP base are with Covid where I live. The rap on liberals was we were obsessed with it, but Trumpsters are still insanely angry about it. A lot of their confidence about a national red wave was predicated on normies “punishing” Democrats for covid restrictions when normies, like normal people do, had in fact moved on.
Conservatives are obsessed with covid, not liberals.
Another Scott
@different-church-lady: And Urban Hellscape Crime, also too.
There was a post-election tweet from some police chief somewhere (which I cannot find now) who had been saying that crime was out of control before the election. Afterwards? No, they’re doing a fine job. Crime is under control.
Geeee, I wonder why he said those two different things at different times??!!??
Grrr…,
Scott.
Paul in KY
@Gin & Tonic: Great news! All praises to the heroic men & women of Ukraine!!
Paul in KY
@Ken: I’ve been to all of em in Florida and I think Orange Beach in Gulf Shores is just as good.
Paul in KY
@Kay: And there’s alot of rural nutjobs out in the hinterlands of OH.
Betty Cracker
@Philbert: I despise that mofo with every fiber of my being, but Scott is disciplined and smart about working the angles, and he spent a lot of time lying about Democrats holding up hurricane relief. If exit polls are accurate (not a safe bet, IMO), the FL GOP outperformed Democrats with Puerto Rican residents.
@Ha Nguyen: That’s an excellent point. It’s not just climate change, though that’s the big one — Republicans pretend a lot of problems don’t exist, and I guess it will work until it doesn’t anymore.
Paul in KY
@Lady WereBear: I think that was done as a joke on Lake.
Paul in KY
@Betty Cracker: To me, one of the overall biggest voting changes has been the migration of Catholics from reliable Democratic voters (pre-1980) to reliable Repub voters.
Think we can thank John Paul 2 & Pope Palpatine for that.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: I was just watching an old clip from a 1990s “Star Trek: The Next Generation” episode, a good one about a sort of McCarthyite conspiracy-monger (played by Jean Simmons!) who goes after the crew on a witch hunt for Romulan spies. Captain Picard gives one of his usual sage speeches about how easy it is for the most enlightened civilizations to fall prey to fear and scapegoating.
Multiple comments on the video described it as a prescient warning we should have heeded when COVID hysterics forced us to use masks and vaccines.
Matt McIrvin
@Paul in KY: As far as I can tell, the Catholic vote today is not really distinguishable from the US vote in general. They’re split by party vote much like the US population as a whole, however that may be.
There is a prominent population of extreme-right Catholics in powerful government and media positions, however (some of whom are recent converts from evangelical Protestantism). That’s a weird minority movement but one with outside influence.
J R in WV
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I’m pretty sure that the Legislative branch can direct the Courts as to what is possible to litigate and what is not — in other words, a law about voting rights could specify that the courts may not fuck with it. Not going to read the Constitution again to see which clause, etc. but I’m pretty sure it’s clearly spelled out by the founders.
Matt McIrvin
@Immanentize: Old-fashioned Commie-baiting seems to be effective there–you can actually swing votes by claiming that Democrats will establish a Communist dictatorship.
Paul in KY
@Matt McIrvin: Back in the old days, the average Catholic wasn’t consumed by abortion and was much more attuned to paycheck issues.
Now, the ones I know are all very anti-choice & vote that way.
Hitchhiker
@Kay:
That’s interesting. I live in a village on an island in the PNW, where the efforts to contain Covid were quickly normalized and few people died. I don’t get how it became gospel that liberals were responsible for Covid restrictions in OH, when those restrictions were put in place under Trump and under Republican leadership at the state level.
Geminid
@Paul in KY: Your assertion that Catholics have become reliable Republican voters piqued my interest, so I went looking and found reports of data to the contrary. From pew.reseach.org, “8 facts about Catholics and politics in the U.S.” Sept. 20, 2020:
As for 2020, a Gallup article published November 13, 2020, titled “Religious Group Voting and the 2020 Election” (author Frank Newport) said:
J R in WV
@Cameron:
No doubt that red tide comes ashore on Gulf Coast Florida, that happened when my parents lived down there in the 80s and 90s.
But back then it was a hot summer weather thing… if it’s happening right now, that’s another climate change issue, hurray. Therefore, it isn’t really happening at all, climate change is a hoax, right?
Wonder what’s causing all the manatees to die off? Can’t be toxic algae, that’s against the law!!!
Bill Arnold
@Betty Cracker:
The soft focus is a running joke.
Trumpism Has Found Its Leading Lady – The Republican candidate for Arizona governor not only won Trump’s endorsement but has emerged as his most talented emulator. Is Kari Lake the new face of the MAGA movement? (Elaine Godfrey, OCTOBER 9, 2022)
Guessing wildly, it may be some video cosmetic software with a slider set all the way to “impossible smoothness”. Her husband is allegedly involved.
Paul in KY
@Geminid: They used to go 60 – 40 for Democrats, back in the old days (pre 1980). Before the religious right really started flogging anti-choice as a wedge issue, IMO.
Geminid
@Paul in KY: Yeah, the Democrats used to be the Catholic party, and Republicans the Protestent party.
That may go back to 1860, when the Nativist, anti-Catholic American (“Know Nothing”) Party dissolved itself and its sizeable Northern membership went over to the new Republican Party.
Ivan X
@Kay: me too, my only concern is that how much of their right wing preening trickles down to Joe and Jane voter? It’s not like anyone is running headlines like “SCOTUS Justice neutrality in question after speeches to Republican political groups”.