I just want to make a quick clarification/correction from last night’s post as a sentence got away from me in the writing and I didn’t catch it on the read through before hitting publish. The second question about the Starlink Snowflake should have been and is:
Let’s stipulate that the Starlink Snowflake is not actually being influenced by our adversaries – Russia, PRC, Saudi, UAE – the last two also being major investors in Twitter from before his takeout and the PRC having major control over Tesla’s ability to do business in China and to source materials for the car batteries; what exactly would he be doing differently if they were?
The answer is nothing. He would be doing nothing differently. And that’s the real problem here.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!
I briefly report on the day, which started very early today, it was very active, and my schedule for this day is not yet exhausted.
I just held another meeting of the Staff. The main issues are the front. The provision of our troops, the situation in particular sections of the front line and that we are planning to increase the number of Ukrainian flags in the cities in the south and east of the country.
The battles in Donetsk region were discussed separately. Reports were presented. We are doing everything to help our heroes withstand Russian attacks.
Of course, special attention was paid to energy.
The composition of the participants of the Staff meeting is traditional. The Commander-in-Chief, commanders and all who work for our defense.
An extremely important visit to Ukraine took place today – the visit of the new British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. A very meaningful visit. We managed to discuss all the key issues of our relations. There will be new results for both our countries – that’s for sure.
Thank you, Rishi, Mr. Prime Minister, for your willingness to defend freedom even more strongly with us. We also have some very necessary decisions – we agreed on them today.
As always, today I received reports on restoration work in the energy sector.
We are working throughout the country to stabilize the situation.
The most problems with electricity are in the city of Kyiv and Kyiv region, the city of Odesa and Odesa region, the city of Kharkiv and Kharkiv region. Vinnytsia, Ternopil, Cherkasy, Chernihiv and other regions – energy workers are doing everything possible to give people a normal life.
Kherson – we are restoring transport connections. There is the first train from Kyiv. We create new opportunities for people every day.
We are preparing important international events – they will be soon. We will provide everything that is needed for our protection.
We involve everyone who can be involved in supporting our state.
Thank you to everyone who works for Ukraine!
Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine!
Thanks to everyone in the world who helps!
Glory to Ukraine!
From First Lady Zelenskyya:
Photo: Eddy van Wessel
— Олена Зеленська (@ZelenskaUA) November 18, 2022
I just want to take a moment and note, again, that what Russia is doing and has been doing since the start of the re-invasion, is the systemic targeting of civilians, civilian residential areas, civilian infrastructure such as power generation, power transmission, water treatment facilities, reservoirs, railways, agriculture, hospitals, schools, cultural facilities, the widespread mining of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, the kidnapping of Ukrainian children to Russia, the use of Ukrainian citizens as hostages, etc. The vast majority of Russia’s targeting in the re-invasion constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. And while we’ve been consistent here about this – me in the update posts, you all in comments – the news media regularly fails to make this clear.
Everywhere in the liberated Kherson we meet teams of sappers or mines stacked in rows. This is a critical task. Russians mined everything and the territory is extremely littered. Until then, people can't return to their homes. pic.twitter.com/0XRdXVsLdZ
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 17, 2022
Peskov openly said they fire missiles because Ukraine doesn't want to negotiate.
This means that russian military is in serious trouble, and the Kremlin knows this. There is no other reason they would be so desperate to negotiate otherwise.
— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) November 17, 2022
Meanwhile in Russia: a lawmaker argues that the strikes against Ukraine's critical infrastructure are meant to express Russia's "holy hatred" towards Ukrainians and prompt them to overthrow Zelensky. Others pontificate that freezing Ukrainian civilians will prompt a capitulation. pic.twitter.com/5NXSxnl4B4
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) November 19, 2022
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s latest assessment on the situation in Izium:
IZIUM AXIS /0230 UTC 19 NOV/ UKR forces have consolidated incremental advances and have established positions within 200 meters of the important P-66 HWY. This effectively cuts the Line of Communication and Supply (LOCS) linking RU forces in the city of Svatove and Kremenna. pic.twitter.com/XSgms75BcH
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 19, 2022
The first train coming to Kherson from Kyiv following the liberation day.
Note it how local folks are meeting it! pic.twitter.com/9I9RrDG0ec— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 19, 2022
Kherson. The first train from Kyiv #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/0ucX15fxYz
— Kristina Berdynskykh (@berdynskykh_k) November 19, 2022
People in Kherson welcome the passengers of the first train from Kyiv to Kherson in more than eight months. Many families are finally reunited 🙏💙💛
📷 @ukrpravda_news pic.twitter.com/p6oqFJKQFs— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) November 19, 2022
Meduza takes a deep dive into how the Russian neo-NAZI – the actual NAZIs in Ukraine… – has hacked into cryptocurrency exchanges to steal funds to support their operations against the Ukrainians:
The paramilitary group Rusich is one of multiple Russian far-right and neo-Nazi organizations that have fought in the war in Ukraine. Because it’s not an official part of the Russian Armed Forces, Rusich has had to find alternative ways of funding its members’ military equipment and medical needs — and has found the perfect solution in cryptocurrency. Meduza special correspondent Lilia Yapparova explains how Russian white supremacists have used the blockchain Ethereum to siphon money from a Ukrainian charity foundation — and how they’ve encouraged other Russian fighters to use crypto to extort money from the families of murdered POWs.
The logo of the Ukrainian charity foundation Happy New Life depicts two hands opening towards the sky, a “tree of life” growing out of them. On its website, donors can send money to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces, provide aid to refugees, and even assist victims in the case of “radiation contamination in Europe” — a potential consequence of Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the site explains.
The foundation, created in June 2022, was an outgrowth of a volunteer initiative from Dnipro, its director, Daniel Ovcharenko, told Meduza. And to give the organization “at least some kind of [online] face,” he said, its creators made a “very inexpensive” website for it. The site shows pictures of Ukrainian children and soldiers along with a call to action: “Today, we’re fighting against a terrorist state. And our victory will be the victory of the entire civilized world… Sometimes lighting a candle is enough to overpower the darkness.” The other half of the screen shows large “Donate” button.”
But Meduza has learned that at least a portion of the money donated through the site has gone not to Ukrainian causes but to the Russian paramilitary group Rusich — a detachment of neo-Nazis fighting in Ukraine on the side of the Russian army. At the very least, that’s who owns the cryptocurrency wallet listed as a donation method on the Happy New Life site, according to financial investigator Artem Irgebaev, who has thoroughly examined Rusich’s network of crypto accounts.
Rusich is known for its brutality. It leader, neo-Nazi Alexey Milchakov, has been photographed next to the mutilated bodies of Ukrainian soldiers, and the detachment’s Telegram channel has called for the torture of Ukrainian POWs and the murder of civilians.
Happy New Life founder Daniel Ovcharenko doesn’t know how the address for Rusich’s crypto wallet got on the foundation’s site; according to him, a link to the charity’s own wallet used to be in the same spot on the homepage.
“I got the wallet that the foundation uses from [the cryptocurrency wallet software] MetaMask — and it’s completely different, except that the first three characters are the same [as the address of Rusich’s wallet],” Ovcharenko told Meduza. He admitted that he himself had very little involvement with the site, and that he “didn’t double check the digits in the address [listed on its homepage].”
At some point, Rusich managed to hack into the Happy New Life site and switch out the crypto wallet link, Irgebaev told Meduza.
“A similar thing happened with a site that sold proxy servers, where one of the payment methods was crypto. An attacker replaced the site owner’s [crypto wallet] address with his own, and the site then worked like that for two days: people sent money not to the person selling servers, but to the hacker,” he explained. “Internet scammers do this regularly. And Rusich, it’s becoming clear, is a group with wide-ranging ‘talents’ — they have both mercenaries and hackers.”
The Rusich crypto wallet linked on the Happy New Life site is still receiving deposits. According to Etherscan.io, a website that catalogs Ethereum blockchain transactions, the wallet contains more than $7,000 with the current exchange rate.
In late July, financial investigator Artem Irgebaev downloaded a game called Synthetik: Legion Rising from a torrent website.
“My friends and I downloaded this ancient shooting game [Editor’s note: the game came out in 2018] that was 700 megabytes, and we noticed that [after the torrent file downloaded on our computers, they started exhibiting] this sort of unhealthy behavior,” Irgebaev said. “We shut off the Internet and started digging to find out what kind of malware this was and what it was doing.”
The program didn’t steal any passwords, nor did it try to hijack their accounts. But upon closer inspection, Irgebaev “found several crypto wallet addresses directly in binary code.” It became clear that his device had been infected by something called clipboard malware that was built to steal cryptocurrency:
Here’s how it looks to the victim. Let’s say you want to send money to your friend. Entering his 32-character crypto wallet address is a tedious task, so you just copy it from your notes [to paste it] straight into your wallet or exchange account. The address goes onto your clipboard, and at that moment, the malware replaces it with the attackers’ address. Then, instead of going to the person the user intended, the money goes to the scammers.
Irgebaev gave Meduza the addresses found in the malware’s code. Both of them appear on lists of addresses associated with clipboard malware on the sites Bitcoinabuse.com and Checkbitcoinaddress.com, where people can post complaints about crypto wallets used by hackers and blackmailers.
Much, much, much more at the link!
I had hoped, and I expressed this in one of the earliest updates back in March, that the US ramping up the sanctions regime would be accompanied by a real attempt to crack down on the white collar crime that the Russians, through the oligarchs who straddle legitimate business, organized crime, and being part of Russia’s security apparatus, undertake. Also, a variety of ultra-wealthy Americans, as well as the PRC, the Saudis, the Emiratis, and a number of others. Because without doing so the sanctions regime would ultimately be unsuccessful. Unfortunately, there’s been no crackdown. Which has allowed all the mechanisms that these individuals, criminal organizations, and governments to remain in place and be used to do significant damage.
The Washington Post brings us a deep dive into the Ukrainian partisan underground in Kherson and their work with Ukrainian SOF:
Ihor didn’t even know the first name of the person who contacted him. The man said he was a member of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces and wanted to know if Ihor was interested in helping fight the Russians occupying his city of Kherson.
“Sign me up,” Ihor responded.
For months, the two kept up a coded communication over the Telegram messaging app. Sometimes Ihor would be asked to help pinpoint locations from which the Russians were firing artillery. Other times, he sent the man, who asked to be called Smoke, the positions of Russian troops, armored vehicles and ammunition stocks.
Then in August, Ihor had a more dangerous task from Smoke. There was a cache of weapons hidden somewhere in Kherson, and Ihor needed to bury them in a different location and wait for the signal. Eventually, Smoke told him, Ihor might be called on to take up one of the arms and help Ukrainian soldiers if the battle for Kherson turned to street fighting and small sabotage groups would be necessary.
“Around the city, there were a lot of people with weapons who were waiting for the right time to use them,” Ihor said. He declined to provide his surname out of concern for his safety, and Smoke asked to be identified only by his call sign because of his work in special forces.
During more than eight months of Russian occupation, an underground resistance movement formed in Kherson, the lone regional capital Vladimir Putin’s military was able to capture since the start of its invasion last February.
Stories of brave Ukrainian citizens standing up to the invading soldiers have been widespread throughout the war. But Kherson, occupied since early March, was a unique hub for resistance activity where many civilians worked in close coordination with handlers from Ukrainian security services.
Help from inside occupied territories — at times beyond the reach of Ukraine’s missiles and artillery — has proven key for Kyiv in pulling off some of its most brazen attacks, including at an airfield in Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014.
In Kherson and in the occupied city of Melitopol, about 140 miles to the east, there have been mysterious explosions during the war that have killed or injured Russian-installed authorities. Those blasts are believed to be the work of resistance fighters, also known as partisans, or Ukrainian special forces working behind enemy lines. Sometimes, bombs exploded in occupying officials’ cars or at their homes.
People often did not know who among their neighbors or co-workers were also resistance fighters. In interviews, two members of the resistance claimed that they managed to kill a few drunk Russians walking alone in the streets by stabbing them. Those claims could not be verified. But mostly the partisans were given nonviolent assignments, resistance fighters and military officers said, such as hiding weapons or explosives at a certain location, identifying collaborators, or reporting where Russian soldiers and their materials were based. That information was then used to direct Ukrainian artillery fire.
In Kherson, it all added up to a subtle insurgency that Ukraine’s military leaned on as the southern front line drew closer and closer to the city, ultimately forcing the Russians to retreat last week. With Kherson city now free of Russian soldiers, the resistance movement is rising to the surface.
In the central square this week, Smoke, wearing a balaclava, ran up to Ihor and hugged him tightly.
Much more, including the picture of Smoke and Ihor, at the link! Also, someone should’ve given Ihor a balaclava too! For OPSEC purposes!
Finally, The Irish Times brings us a different story of resistance from Kherson:
He stayed indoors to evade Russian patrols, watching movies on his laptop. On sunny days, he strolled in a small, walled courtyard. Afraid to be seen, he peeked cautiously from behind curtains, watching as Russians moved in across the street.
He is Timothy Morales, an American English teacher, who hid from the Russian military and secret police through the entire eight-month occupation of the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine, afraid that his nationality had made him a target. He emerged in public only after the Ukrainian army liberated the city last week.
“I had fleeting moments of despair,” Morales said in an interview in a central square in Kherson, where he now walks openly with ribbons in yellow and blue, the Ukrainian national colours, tied to his tweed coat. “But I knew at some point this day would come.”
The thud of artillery fired toward the city from Russian positions across the Dnieper River still rattles windows, and Kherson remains a grim and dark city, without electricity, water or heating. Most of its residents fled months ago, and the retreating Russians took with them anything of value they could carry.
Beginning at dawn, many of the remaining civilians form gigantic lines to get bread or to fill plastic jugs with water. Not until Tuesday did the first convoys arrive with humanitarian aid, their trucks parked in the square to hand out boxes of flour, soap, wipes and goodies like instant milkshake mix.
But for Morales (56), a former college professor, the worst was behind him – no more anxious cat-and-mouse games with the Russians. Raised in Banbury, England, he had lived for years in Oklahoma City teaching English literature, and had opened an English-language school in Kherson before the Russian invasion in February.
In the chaotic, early days of the war, as Russian tanks battled with the few Ukrainian troops in the region and a scrappy but quickly overrun volunteer defence force, Morales became trapped behind Russian lines.
He tried once to escape on a highway to the north, he said, but turned back when he saw tanks firing on the road ahead. He managed to send his 10-year-old daughter to safety, travelling with his former wife, but could not make it out himself.
“I didn’t want to risk it with my passport,” he said of the gauntlet of Russian military checkpoints.
He had done nothing illegal, under the laws of any nation. But the Kremlin has cast the United States and its allies, which are arming Ukrainian troops, as the real enemy in this war, blaming them for its battlefield setbacks. Morales feared that Russian troops would detain him merely for being American.
He became a survivor of – and furtive witness to – Russia’s assault, its harsh occupation and its failed effort to assimilate parts of Ukraine and root out any opposition.
Much, much more at the link!
Your daily Patron!
Please join the auction 😍 https://t.co/8ZqyYWWlXG
— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 19, 2022
There are no new videos today from Patron’s official TikTok. But here’s a replay of Patron with his toy ducks and chickens from yesterday.
@patron__dsns Знайомтеся, мої дорогоцінні качечки! Наче нікого не забув🤭 #песпатрон #патрондснс
Open thread!
Martin
So what you’re saying is that Kherson has better train service than the largest city in the United States. Or most cities for that matter.
Gin & Tonic
@Martin: Ukrzaliznytsia is a formidable force. Their CEO, Alexandr Kamyshin, is on Twitter, usually in English, and is a good follow.
dmsilev
The FTNYT has a nice (long) story about the railway and what they’ve been through and have accomplished.
Martin
What are you talking about? We let SBF loose on the world to destroy much of the crypto infrastructure.
Is there a term for sabotage by simply looking the other way while an earnest idiot runs roughshod over a system?
lashonharangue
Thanks Adam. Have you seen anything more about this reported drone ship attack? https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/11/ukraine-maritime-drone-strikes-again-reports-indicate-attack-on-novorossiysk/
What I find interesting is that the drones need not sink the Russian ships. Simply driving them away reduces the missile threat they pose.
Adam L Silverman
@lashonharangue: Nothing other than the videos of the explosion and the Russian denials that anything happened despite the videos of the explosion.
Alison Rose
Considering the sly ways Ukraine has hinted in the past about future successful campaigns, I am taking this to mean we’re gonna see more scenes like Kherson in the not-too-distant future.
That tweet about the russian lawmaker (now there’s a phrase that feels like an oxymoron) is so baffling. I mean, how is showing your “holy hatred” towards Ukrainians supposed to make them like you, and how in the boiling fuck do these idiots still think there’s even a sliver of a chance they’ll want to “overthrow Zelensky”? Are all russian babies just routinely dropped on their heads shortly after birth?
It was great to see PM Sunak there, and I’m glad that he is showing continued support for Ukraine right out the gate. And I will once again note that considering all of the other prominent world leaders who have visited Kyiv, it certainly seems like one notable exception ought to be able to do so by now, too. No further comment.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Alison Rose:
Alcohol poisoning?
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: It seems like he should be able to, doesn’t it? But if he visited, and RU sent 100 missiles to the Maidan, what would we do? We’d have to already have Patriots in-place, right? A ton of ’em. And that means all the support personnel, and on and on. And once we’ve done that, could we take ’em out after ? That’d be pretty callous, wouldn’t it?
I guess what I mean is, it’s a thread thaf if you pull on it, well, the entire fabric starts to unravel. I think his protective details would go apeshit if he tried to order a visit. And honestly, they’d be right to pitch a fit. He allowed the First Lady to go to (I guess) Lviv, and that was OK, but also much earlier, before RU really started focusing on drones/drones/drones/drones.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Could I pester you once again for a bit of translation? This short on Zelenskyy’s YT–the text on screen machine translates as “Let Putin think about the pressure, his years are not the same” –but I’m guessing that’s not totally accurate, at least not the second part. Is it a dig at his age compared to Zelenskyy?
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: The only thing I’ll say is the security protocols thst would be needed to get Biden into, around, and out of Ukraine would be enormous and overwhelming. The entire country is an active war zone. And, unfortunately, even cities like Kyiv are what we’d call semi permissive security environments because Russia constantly targets them. I’m still amazed we’ve reopened embassy Kyiv. I don’t disagree it would be great for him to go, but the security situation that would be required makes it unlikely to happen.
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose: My guess is “he’s not getting any younger” would be a loose translation. But that’s my kludging it from Russian.
Alison Rose
@Chetan Murthy: Well, it would obviously need to be done secretively. I’m not saying he should go on Twitter and be like START POURING THE BORSCHT, BOYS, SEE YA SOON. If no one knows he’s going until he gets there, and if he stays in the Western end of the country, that would limit the enemy’s ability to do whatever cockamamie shit.
I just fail to see how it can be totally safe and fine for like a dozen European leaders, a whole slew of US Congresspeople, and our FLOTUS, but not for him.
ETA to Adam at 11 – I do get all of that and it’s plausible that Biden himself would want to but his team is like NO, and of course I don’t want him in danger. It just feels…crummy.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: The first thing a security team leader would ask is: “What do we do if RU gets a leak about the visit? Do we pull out? Do we go ahead? Do we go ahead with a massive security presence? etc etc. etc”. Saying “we’ll keep it secret” isn’t a solution. And Western Ukraine is still vulnerable. Such a prize: RU would be justified in expending their entire remaining inventory of missiles, for such a prize.
But to your last para: yes, it is indeed crummy. I’m sure Biden feels crummy about it. But POTUS is in a different position from anybody else in our Alliance, right? He’s the linchpin of the whole thing.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: It’s a weird sort of construction, basically saying time is weighing more heavily on Putin, sort of “he doesn’t have many years left.
ETA: And once again the literature professor comes up with a better choice of words than me.
OB-118
In the train arrival video clip, it looks like there is a flat car in front of the locomotive. Is this to detonate any mines on the track or something like that?
And thank you very much, Adam, for the hundreds of posts since February.
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: I’m a bit torn on this. After all, Bush visited Baghdad in 2003, and the Secret Service probably had an institutional aneurism over that plan. My feeling is that if the administration were to inform the Kremlin privately that Biden was going, the Russians wouldn’t dare launch so much as a cherry bomb within 100 miles of Kyiv from the moment Air Force One approached Ukrainian airspace to the moment it left. They’d be too scared of the potential consequences.
On the other hand it is a risk, so the question is whether the reward justifies it. Biden is Ukraine’s most important asset in the West, and he’s 80. If I were Zelenskyy, and doing a cost-benefit analysis, I might not trade the chance of something happening to him for a photo-op in Kyiv.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Two thoughts:
The agitprop writes itself.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Haha, points split between you and Zhena then :) Thanks to both of you!
Alison Rose
@Chetan Murthy: But here’s my question: We keep discussing what might trigger a NATO response. If, God forbid, Biden were to go and russia launched a strike that killed him, even if they claim it was accidental, wouldn’t that almost certainly trigger a response? Essentially assassinating the US president? We know putin and most russian top brass are all dumb as dirt, but even they have to realize the absolute hellfire that I have to imagine would be visited upon them. I can’t imagine the US and other NATO countries would just go “dang, that sucks” and not do anything about it.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: This is an argument about hypotheticals, so it doesn’t seem worth dragging out into a long, freighted debate. I’ll just say that my view of the nature of the conversations that are still occurring between the US and Russia is that the US sets very clear and definite expectations concerning a small set of red lines, and Russia stays away from those lines. The security of the President of the United States on a visit to Ukraine would be clearly bounded by such a red line. YMMV.
Ksmiami
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: yes – generations of fetal alcohol poisoning has led to a completely failed society that shouldn’t exist in this world.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: The entire 1st Armored Division was in Baghdad and had operational control over Baghdad fir that visit. There was also a bunch of US Special Forces and Special Operations Forces operating there. We controlled Baghdad International Airport, all the roads in and out, and had two giant bases at the airport. We also had complete control of the air space over Iraq and throughout the region. We have a handful of Marines as guards at the embassy in Kyiv and a senior defense official/defense attaché, air attaché, and naval attaché at best on the country team at the embassy. We don’t control the airport, we don’t control the roads, we don’t have control over the air space. We don’t control the maritime environment in the Black Sea.
The two situations are not at all analogous.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: I could be mistaken, but I think all the foreign leaders have come in over land from Poland. I’d say there’s a zero probability AF1 enters UA airspace any time soon.
ian
@Alison Rose: Here is a different way of thinking about it- What tangible benefits does Ukraine gain from Biden actually visiting in person? What would visiting in person do that could not be accomplished via zoom or phone call?
If it is just a show of support, then why go through the expense and security protocols that it would entail?
Earl
Can the US not defense product act starlink?
Dan B
@Alison Rose: At this juncture the psychological boost a successful visit by Biden would be great but what might be as impactful, fir different reasons, would be Biden visiting the leadership of Germany and France, along with public appearances. I imagine the Getman public, who want Scholz to do much more, would worship Biden like a rock star. That would put pressure on Scholz.
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: OK, that’s fair. And to be clear, I acknowledge that there would be some imponderable risks. Probably not large ones, in my view, but not worth taking, even from the perspective of the Ukrainian government.
Alison Rose
@ian: Couldn’t you ask the same questions of every other leader who has visited, including many people from our own Congress? None of them “had” to go.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: I think the signaling value of all those Western (and other) leaders showing up in Kyiv is immense, b/c it’s a visible way of saying “we back Ze and UA”. But the US? We’re the leaders of the coalition backing Ze, everybody knows it, and we don’t need to do anything to prove it. I think
@Dan B: is right, that if anything, visiting Germany and visibly putting some backbone into Scholz might be more useful
P.S. And let’s be fair: some of those leaders visited, for domestic reasons too. Like BoJo.
Martin
@Earl: They could nationalize it, but it’s complicated. To effectively nationalize it you also need to nationalize the mechanism for continuing to build it which means nationalizing SpaceX entirely.
I’m not opposed to that, but every conservative will lose their shit.
Grumpy Old Railroader
I found it interesting that as the train approaches the station in Kyiv, It appears that the lead locomotive is shoving a couple of railroad flat cars. Quite unusual but in war time one can assume that it is an effort to save the locomotive in case the track is mined or some other track sabotage,
Lyrebird
@Alison Rose: None of the other leaders are the leaders of the RU’s arch nemesis, the country they blame the most on, etc. Not the same risk calculation.
Lyrebird
@Grumpy Old Railroader: Thanks for explaining why the engines looked funny, GOR! (because those aren’t the engines)
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Yes, but that’s not the only reason not having control of the air space for the visit is a problem.
Grumpy Old Railroader
@OB-118: I meant to reply to you. see above
Ruckus
@Martin:
I like that they had 2 or 3 flatbed cars in front of the engine. I imagine designed to give some warning of explosives.
Los Angeles has a reasonable train service in the Metro and MetroLink trains. I travel across LA from the easternish edge to west LA on a somewhat regular basis. In rush hours traffic I often get where I’m going faster than driving. In non rush hours it is faster to drive, but even my car which can get 40+ mpg costs more to drive across town.
Earl
@Martin: I don’t think that’s what the Defense Production Act does at all. It just forces companies to keep producing things. No nationalization.
Martin
@Ruckus: Yeah, commuter is getting somewhat better. Not great, though.
But it’s damn near impossible to take a train from NorCal to SoCal. You can take the Coast Starlight once a day from Seattle to LA. But there’s nothing going through Tehachapi because UP deliberately keeps the line too shitty for passenger rail. There’s Surfliner from SD to SLO, but no further north. There’s some routes east, but again, once a day max.
So my son is taking the train down to visit from San Jose to LA. The *only* train each day(ish) arrives after the last commuter rail departs from Union Station, so you can basically *never* pull off any kind of rail trip unless you just happen to hit the right stations or get *really* lucky on the connections. Thankfully he doesn’t need to make a CalTrain connection at the other end, because that probably wouldn’t work either.
I’ll also note it’s a 10 hour trip from LA to San Jose, compared to a 6 hour drive, so it’s not even a very good time proposition even if you could get the endpoints working.
ian
@Alison Rose: Did the visit of those other people tangibly improve the situation? Did Ukraine benefit from Sunak or Jill Biden visiting? They showed solidarity, but I doubt it changed the motivations for why the people doing the fighting get up and do what they do every day.
I would be happy to listen to arguments as to why Biden should visit. As of now, I don’t see any reason why he should. What would it accomplish? What would it change?
Biden visiting would involve a massive security project. It would require time, money, effort, manpower, and intelligence efforts that could all be better spent. It would involve a small but still serious risk. These are all the negative factors that have to be weighed against the benefits of his arrival.
Martin
@Earl: Yeah, but the issue isn’t the production of Starlink, the issue is the control of Starlink and whether Musk/SpaceX can be trusted to operate it in a way which is consistent with national security goals. DPA doesn’t help with that problem. Nationalization does though.
Uncle Cosmo
@BSMiasma: Just FTR, this source shows the rate of alcohol use disorders by gender in Russia for 1990-2017. The rate is never as high as 4% for women (and 7.15% for men, but they don’t count re “fetal alcohol syndrome”).
So once again it seems you’ve shot from the lip and missed – bozo.
Alison Rose
@Chetan Murthy: I agree Biden doesn’t need to do anything to prove his support, and I don’t cast any doubt on the sincerity of it at all
ETA that I know we’ve had this conversation before (likely sparked by my own grousing then as now). I understand all the reasons against it, and see the validity of them. It remains, though, hard for me to square the circle of it being at the same time safe as houses for so many others. I get that Biden, and the US, are bigger targets of hatred for putin, but it’s not like dude actually likes nearly anyone else.
But again: I get it. I do. I just continue to not like it.
way2blue
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Fetal alcohol syndrome?
way2blue
@Uncle Cosmo:
I’m confused. Are you saying alcohol abuse is a minor problem in Russia? That only 4% of women risk causing fetal alcohol syndrome in their children?
This is what I gleaned from NIH via Mr Google:
James E Powell
@Ruckus:
I want to ride on that train just to see what it’s like. When I’m visiting my brother in Palo Alto, I take CalTrain & love it.
Carlo Graziani
Here we go. The dipshit just reinstated Trump’s Twitter account.
“Not a hellscape”. What a fucking crotch rash.
frosty
@Alison Rose: Spoken like a true jackal! And nominated!!
StringOnAStick
@Carlo Graziani: I read that tRump has turned it down because he is legally obligated to post anything on his crappy Truth echo chamber, and then 6 hours later it can fly in the bird app. His using the bird again destroys Truth Social, and he has legal obligations to use the latter and prevent that. It’s all so damned chaotic is though, who knows.
I have read that there has been a huge increase in people deleting their accounts because of his reinstatement. Mine happens first thing tomorrow. We’ll all be replaced by Russian bots, and bitchboy will be giddy about it.
Carlo Graziani
@StringOnAStick: Oh. Well, in that case, I’m sure Trump will respect his legally-binding agreement with Truth Social.
Joey Maloney
@StringOnAStick: And we all know how scrupulous that shitbag is about observing his legal obligations…
OverTwistWillie
There were a number of track workers injured by a mine during restoration of service to Kherson.
Fair Economist
@StringOnAStick: Do NOT delete your Twitter account. If it’s deleted, anybody can start a new account with your handle and any reference to your handle goes to them. Just don’t log in.
Martin
@StringOnAStick: Oh, Trump finally found the legal contract that he has to abide by, did he?
A) Trump can’t resist the audience size over at Twitter
B) Knowing Musk wants him there, Trump isn’t going to move over without trying to get Musk to pay him for doing so.
Martin
@Fair Economist: Yep. Might as well rent seek off of Musks land.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Interesting, the Evangelicals are now throwing Justice Alto under the bus accusing him of leaking SCOTUS rulings. Maybe the stories that Abortion as the problem they never wanted solved are correct.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@StringOnAStick: You also look it from Trump’s point of view, Musk can just change his mind tomorrow and ban Trump again.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Adam L Silverman: It’s always hilarious in these situations one can’t tell if this was an Ukrainian attack, or some dumb accident on the Russians part.
Sister Golden Bear
@Carlo Graziani: It won’t matter if people can’t see Twitter. It’s been failing to load on my browser for the last half-hour, although the app is still working. For now.
Amir Khalid
Off-topic: Malaysia has emerged from its fifteenth general election with its first hung parliament ever — not entirely surprising, since there was never a clear favourite. Pakatan Harapan has a plurality of 76 seats, and its two allies have six more, but 82 seats is well short of a majority in the 220-seat chamber. It will be interesting to see how the jockeying for allies goes this coming week.
Ruckus
@Martin:
The train ride from LA Union Station to say Marin County starts with a bus ride to Bakersfield, then a nice train ride up the single line, sharing with freight – and not all the sidings are long enough for the freight trains so you side on the siding once in a while. Then you get to Martinez at Suisun Bay and take a bus from there. It looks to me that the RR bridge is not in the best condition so that’s were the train stops. It’s not ten hours to Marin, it’s more like 14. Nice view of the central valley though. I’ve done it twice, both times a bus from socal to Bakersfield broke down and had to pull over and transfer passengers to one of the other 2 busses. Once we had to take on passengers and once we had to transfer to the other bus. Good times. The train is a lot nicer than the first trip I took up north about 65 yrs ago on the Surfliner. And I like trains. I like the ones I rode on in Europe over 50 yrs ago better.
Ruckus
@Martin:
It actually is pretty good if you live in the right place. When I lived in Old Town Pasadena I was 2 blocks from the Metro electric line. Now I live 2 1/2 miles. But less than 1/2 mile is the MetroLink. The Metro trains are very similar to trains I rode on in Europe 50 yrs ago. They are improving the service, extending and changing to make trips better. Likely in about a year I will be able to take the electric from the eastern edge of LA county to west LA with one change at Union Station, when they finish the subway to the VA hospital at Wilshire and the 405. You will be able to travel from Montclair to Santa Monica with one change or Montclair to Long Beach on the same train. Yes there are empty spots, big ones, but it does work for a lot of people. I’ve ridden the train standing room only on more than one occasion. People do ride.
Ruckus
@James E Powell:
Search Metro and see what’s what. Or MetroLink.
Metro is the bus and electric trains and subway. Yes LA has 2 subway lines. MetroLink is diesel trains that end at Union station. The don’t cover like European trains do but then our cities are far more widely spread out but there are several lines that cover a lot of cities.
As Martin said they aren’t as good as they should/possibly could be but they are pretty good.
KithKanan
@Martin: Sure, but even if Biden wants to, does he have the power to nationalize Starlink without an act of Congress? AFAIK SCOTUS slapped Truman down hard for trying that in Youngstown Sheet & Tube and that’s still good law.
Ken
Watching the train video, as the first car entered the frame I briefly thought “oh, they have problems with graffiti too”. Then I saw the image looked professional, and the other cars all had similar decoration. Does anyone know, are these advertisements, or some special decoration for this first train?
lowtechcyclist
A lot of the chatter I’ve been hearing elsewhere seems to be of the view that the Ukrainian armed forces won’t accomplish much this winter. Maybe as someone with no expertise here, I’m looking at it the wrong way, but a few things occur to me:
1) The Russian soldiers manning their defensive lines will largely be the untrained soldiers that were conscripted this fall.
2) They will likely have shelter and uniforms that are inadequate for the cold, and will likely be underfed as well. There will come a time this winter when they are all but incapable of fighting.
3) Ukraine’s troops will be adequately clothed, sheltered, and fed. They will be capable of a winter offensive.
4) Once the ground freezes, they can roll.
As we know, Ukraine frequently intercepts Russian soldiers’ phone conversations. I expect that if hypothermia deaths are mentioned (which would totally not surprise me once they get deep enough into the winter, and may it be the coldest winter the Donbas has experienced in decades), they’ll be noting the dates and locations of such mentions. They’d be the tip of the iceberg, so to speak, but that would be information about where the Russian troops are in the worst shape.
lowtechcyclist
@KithKanan:
I’m starting to think maybe he should do it anyway (with DOJ arguments about why it’s legal and under what authority it’s being done, of course), and when Musk takes the Administration to court, use every procedural trick possible to slow the progress of the case through the court system, in order to maintain Starlink service to Ukraine as long as possible.
Meanwhile it will be a constant reminder to the American people of who, domestically, is on which side in this war. Including, ultimately, the Bogus Scotus.
Geminid
I was searching for Iran news and came across a site I’d seen before: Critical Threats (criticalthreats.org). This blog is associated with the American Enterprise Institute.
Critical Threats puts out a daily report of news about the situation in Iran, with analysis. Their report for November 18 included news about stresses within Iran’s leadership over the question of using harsher methods to suppress the protest movement. The report named a high official under pressure to resign, apparantly beause he will not countenance more ruthless measures. It sounds like he is one of a larger faction.
Critical Threat’s analysis brought up another dynamic among regime leaders: the problem of succession to current Supreme Leader Khameini, who not in very good health.
Other good sources I have found for reporting on Iran are Agence France-Presse and Iran News Wire, which is run by Iranian ex-pats based in Europe.
Also, national security reporter Laura Rozen writes some and links to subject matter experts on her Twitter timeline. Al-Monitor, to which Rozen contributes on other subjects, is a good source for Middle East reporting generally.
Adam L Silverman
@Ken: Special decorations painted by Ukrainian artists.
evodevo
@Alison Rose: sure…you’re saying that you want Biden to go to a war zone, with Russia actively pouring missiles on Kyiv every day or so, for…what, exactly? At an exceedingly critical juncture in our political support for the country, when the Rethugs will control the purse strings for the next two years, endangering Ukraine funding even WITH him in office, you want to risk losing him? SRSLY?
Alison Rose
@evodevo: Okay, got it, you think I’m a moron. Takes one to know one, pal.
StringOnAStick
@Fair Economist: Thank you, I didn’t know that.
We should have a betting pool on how long before the mango moron blows off his weak imitation and starts posting at the bird again.
Tim Ellis
@Adam L Silverman: Do you have any recommendations for disinfo countermeasures? I’m working on a grassroots project in Canada to counter Russian (and other) disinformation campaigns and have found your discussions here invaluable, if you have any recommendations for further resources I’d be very keen on them. Thanks for all your work on this, these updates have helped me keep my progressive comrades aligned on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (or in some cases helped identify which ones are too far gone down the rabbit hole).
NotoriousJRT
@Alison Rose: wow just wow.
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid: Critical Threats contributes the Iran Crisis Updates published by ISW. I’m trying to use them to raise my sadly lagging knowledge of regional politics and power struggles. Your posts have also been very helpful.