• Menu
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Before Header

  • About Us
  • Lexicon
  • Contact Us
  • Our Store
  • ↑
  • ↓
  • ←
  • →

Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I was promised a recession.

Why did Dr. Oz lose? well, according to the exit polls, it’s because Fetterman won.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Eh, that’s media spin. biden’s health is fine and he’s doing a good job.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Everybody saw this coming.

All your base are belong to Tunch.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

No one could have predicted…

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

The republican caucus is already covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

You cannot shame the shameless.

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Mobile Menu

  • Winnable House Races
  • Donate with Venmo, Zelle & PayPal
  • Site Feedback
  • War in Ukraine
  • Submit Photos to On the Road
  • Politics
  • On The Road
  • Open Threads
  • Topics
  • Balloon Juice 2023 Pet Calendar (coming soon)
  • COVID-19 Coronavirus
  • Authors
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Lexicon
  • Our Store
  • Politics
  • Open Threads
  • War in Ukraine
  • Garden Chats
  • On The Road
  • 2021-22 Fundraising!
You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 277: Hey Kids – Don’t Do This!

War for Ukraine Day 277: Hey Kids – Don’t Do This!

by Adam L Silverman|  November 27, 20228:23 pm| 64 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

FacebookTweetEmail

Before we dig in, if you are ever really hungry in an active combat zone, DON’T DO THIS!!!

Hunters become the hunted.
russian occupiers are trying to hunt a hare within sight of the optical night vision of a Ukrainian sniper. pic.twitter.com/tXUyq9qGD8

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 27, 2022

The reason the Russians are doing something this stupid is because the conscripts are not being properly supplied in terms of food and winter gear. I’m not going to post it, but I’ve seen video footage of Russian soldiers, most likely conscripts, dead where they lay with no visible wounds. Most likely they died of a combination of freezing to death and hunger. A terrible way to die in service of a terrible strategy and a terrible policy made by terrible people who have no care for anyone but themselves.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Another week of full-scale war is coming to an end – a week in which we accomplished a lot. All together. Thanks to our unity.

After the massive terrorist attack last Wednesday, we have been restoring electricity generation and supply day after day.

As of today, in most regions of the country, only stabilization schedules of shutdowns are in effect. The situation is under control by the energy workers.

And for that, I am thankful to the thousands of people who worked round the clock all over our state to restore light, water, heat and communication. I thank all the employees of energy companies, utility services, repair crews, regional authorities and leaders of local communities who helped. I would also like to thank the businesses that participated.

Ukrainian unity again and again demonstrates its strength, demonstrates our effectiveness.

I thank all Ukrainian entrepreneurs who are now making their offices, branches, cafes and other facilities new Points of Invincibility. Who do everything to help people.

We understand that terrorists are preparing new strikes. We know that for sure. And as long as they have missiles, they won’t stop, unfortunately.

But our ability to help each other and take care of the most vulnerable – the elderly, families with children, those who lost homes and relatives in the war – our mutual assistance is one of the elements of protection against terror and our strength.

The upcoming week can be as hard as the one that passes. Our Defense Forces are preparing. The whole state is preparing. We work out all scenarios, including with our partners.

And our unity must be ready. So please do not leave without help those whom you can help. And please pay attention to the air alerts during the week.

Together and helping each other we will pass this challenge of war as well: this winter, this Russia’s attempt to use the cold against people.

The situation at the front remains very difficult. And most of all – in the Donetsk region, as in previous weeks.

I want to thank all our warriors, all our heroes for their resilience today!

To endure now and defend ourselves now is to endure and defend ourselves for generations to come for all Ukrainians throughout our beautiful land.

We are doing and will do everything possible to strengthen our defense. We are doing and will do everything to hold Russia accountable for this war, for this terror.

And in order to achieve these results, there will be new important steps in the upcoming week.

I thank all our partners who help us! I am grateful to every leader who perceives the defense of Ukraine as the defense of freedom and security for his country as well!

Together we will endure everything. I’m sure of that!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Izium:

IZIUM AXIS/ 1400 UTC 27 NOV/ UKR remains within rifle range of a 20 KM section of the P-66 HWY. Concentrations of enemy troops and HQ elements are identified by UKR Partisans and rapidly interdicted by artillery and missile units of the UKR military. pic.twitter.com/ojc3SwiYt9

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 27, 2022

Ukraine is taking in lots of POWs:

When the Geneva Convention of 1948 becomes the only hope for salvation for russian occupiers. pic.twitter.com/8oITupYsCk

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 27, 2022

Video of the Russian convict who was getting kicked out of his trenches. As I understand, he was guided to Ukrainian positions with a drone to surrender. The Ukrainians questioning him also mention dropping radios to other convicts to guide them, but few agree. pic.twitter.com/1cv5TEIDNj

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 26, 2022

When life imitates art or something…

In anticipation of Christmas, a smiling Himars collects occupiers under Christmas trees. pic.twitter.com/ZIy6SzsMut

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 27, 2022

Tallyho!

 

In 1918, one of the greatest modern aircraft designers, Igor Sikorsky from Kyiv, was forced by the Bolshevik coup to move to the United States. A century later, the Sikorsky S-61 Sea King helicopters invented with his genius will defend his native land. pic.twitter.com/bz8rosej1J

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 27, 2022

Here's a video posted by @ItsBorys of Ukrainian soldiers evacuating an older lady from an area that was shelled by Russian Grads, with captions added. pic.twitter.com/U93F4a4UQQ

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 27, 2022

Circling back to the lack of proper provisioning for the Russian conscripts:

While kadyrovites have full stomachs the mobiks are starved. No wonder coordinates are sold for food.

Serpukhov mobiks show the food their command was hiding from them – 9GAG https://t.co/lq16To6pdh

— Edward Murrow – Disruptor (@EdwardMurrow666) November 26, 2022

We can confirm. Regular mobiks are so mad at officers/kadyrovites who are staying far from action, that they are selling either coordinates of command centres or confirmation whether our hits have been successful. https://t.co/fTweFSfud1

— Georgian Legion (@georgian_legion) November 26, 2022

The video with the subtitles is at this link.

Captain (ret) Scott Kelly is in Ukraine trying to raise funds for more generators:

On Kyiv’s Sophia Square tonight, I passed @StationCDRKelly, @usykaa, and @jksheva7 filming an ad for a fundraiser to purchase generators for hospitals throughout Ukraine, which are increasingly needed as Russia steps up missile and drone attacks on infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/XPxva1hSBX

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 27, 2022

He could use a bit better OPSEC!

pic.twitter.com/1zGvaoTqRJ

— Scott Kelly (@StationCDRKelly) November 27, 2022

Here is a very interesting thread, via The Thread Reader App, from John Ridge regarding Russia’s burn rate for missiles and rockets:

A 🧵with some detailed takeaways from this infographic and some of my thoughts:
0/n
A) No numbers are provided for Iskander-K (9M728/9M729 [SS-C-7/SS-C-8]) ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs), the Kh-59 [AS-13 Kingbolt/AS-18 Kazoo] air-to-surface missiles, or the Tochka-U [SS-21 Scarab-B] ballistic missiles (BMs).
1/15Iskander-K (9M728/9M729) [SS-C-7/SS-C-8] Transporter Erector9M728 [SS-C-7]Kh-59MK [AS-13 Kingbolt/AS-18 Kazoo]Tochka-U [SS-21 Scarab-C]
B) 🇷🇺 is averaging production of 26-28 units of cruise missiles per month (50/50 Kh-101 [AS-23 Kodiak] and 3M-14T/K Kalibr [SS-N-30A])
C) 🇷🇺 is averaging production of ~5 units of Iskander-M [SS-26 Stone] BMs per month. This is consistent with other independent estimates.
2/15Kh-101 [AS-23 Kodiak] Air-Launched Cruise MissileIskander-M [SS-26 Stone] Short-Range Ballistic Missile3M-14 Kalibr (SS-N-30A) Sea-Launched Cruise Missile
D) 🇷🇺 is averaging production of 1-2 units of Kh-47M2 Kinzhal [AS-24 Killjoy] per month and has replenished all units expended
E) 🇷🇺 has expended ~16 Kinzhals. This is more than I thought as I had only seen references to 4 Kinzhal strikes, one of which was a dud on launch.
3/15MiG-31K [Foxhound] carrying a Kh-47M2 [AS-24 Killjoy] Air-La
F) 🇷🇺 has used the Kh-35 [AS-20 Kayak/SS-C-6 Sennight/SS-N-25 Switchblade] extensively in a land-attack role, which is news to me. The Kh-35 is an anti-shipping missile (AShM) with a secondary land-attack capability. 🇺🇦’s R-360 Neptun AShM is derived from the Kh-35.
4/15Kh-35 [AS-20 Kayak/SS-C-6 Sennight/SS-N-25 Switchblade] Anti
G) 🇷🇺 seems to have surprisingly robust Kh-35 production, averaging ~40 units per month, and they have been able to replace all units expended thus far.
5/15
H) There is no production of new Kh-555 [AS-15 Kent-C] units. This seems consistent with the notion that they are upgraded from Kh-55 [AS-15 Kent] units. The lack of noted production may also indicate that 🇷🇺 is no longer actively upgrading Kh-55 units to Kh-555s.
6/15Kh-555 [AS-15 Kent-C] Air-Launched Cruise MissileTu-160M [Blackjack] with Kh-101s [AS-23 Kodiak] (front row) An original Kh-55 [AS-15 Kent] Air-Launched Cruise Missile
I) 🇷🇺 has a larger inventory and expended fewer units of 3M55 Oniks [SS-N-16 Strobile], a supersonic AShM, than I expected. Perhaps it’s an indicator of poor performance in land-attack, presumably due to an ill-suited terminal guidance system (just INS + ARH/PRH)?
7/153M55 Oniks [SS-N-16 Strobile] Supersonic Anti-Shipping Missi
J) 🇷🇺 seems to be holding a number of units of Kh-22/32 [AS-4 Kitchen] supersonic AShMs in reserve for whatever reason. Not sure what the reasoning is. Perhaps poor performance as a result of a severe lack of precision in a land-attack role?
8/15Kh-22 [AS-4 Kitchen] Supersonic Anti-Shipping MissileKh-32 [AS-4 Kitchen] Supersonic Anti-Shipping Missile
K) Standard Cruise/Ballistic Missile Inventory: IF these numbers are accurate, 🇷🇺 only has ~500 total Kh-101s, Kh-555s, and Kalibrs left. IOW, 🇷🇺 only has ~500 of its standard cruise missiles currently in inventory. That becomes ~620 if we include the Kh-22/32s.
9/15
For ballistic missiles, 🇷🇺 only has a total of ~160 left (~120 Iskander-Ms & ~40 Kinzhals). That gives ~780 total standoff munitions based on this figure. This is almost certainly an undercount due to Iskander-K numbers not being included.
10/15
For a more conservative estimate, I would round to ~1,000 land-attack standoff munitions (assuming ~120 Iskander-K GLCMs plus a fudge factor of 100 units of arbitrary munitions). There is also the matter of the Kh-59s, so the actual number may be somewhat greater.
11/15
L) I’m skeptical that we will see significant future use of 🇷🇺’s remaining inventory of Iskander-Ms and Kinzhals. I suspect that 🇷🇺 will withhold most of them as part of a minimum strategic reserve to preserve their capabilities as part of their tactical nuclear triad.
12/15
M) If these numbers are accurate, the upshot of K and L is that it seems 🇷🇺 does not have the capability to launch many more saturation strikes against 🇺🇦. Based on the Nov. 15 strikes, it takes at least 100 CMs for 🇷🇺 to achieve any degree of saturation of 🇺🇦 AD.
13/15
Even with ~100 CMs, saturation was minimal as 🇺🇦 intercepted 80-85%, a small decrease compared to the usual 90-95%. So unless 🇷🇺 just accepts 90-95% intercepted, they will have to use 100+ CMs to attempt saturation. But 🇷🇺 inventory can only support 5-6 more such strikes.
14/15
N) Given K, L, and M, I anticipate that land-attack S-300/400 interceptors (e.g. 5V55 series) will be one of the main future threats. This is due to the massive number remaining in 🇷🇺 inventory plus the difficulty their (quasi)-ballistic trajectories pose to 🇺🇦 AD systems.
15/15S-300/400 Launching an InterceptorS-300/400 Launching a 48N6 Interceptor

I think that’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

To live in Ukraine is to know that tomorrow, there may be another attack on the power system. Buy candles, and pull out all the blankets. Call grandparents and ask if they need to bring water. But smile, donate, help and believe in victory. I love this country ❤️ pic.twitter.com/dbTwhGC2zz

— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 27, 2022

While we got a new tweet tonight, there is no new video at Patron’s official TikTok. So you’ll have to settle for this stuff:

Big))#Ukraine️ #RussiaisATerroistState #RussiaUkraineWar #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #Bakhmut #armedForces #Nikopol
#NewYork #Zaporizhzia #Kyiv #ukrainecounteroffensive#KhersonisUkraine #Biden pic.twitter.com/sCVOW2W387

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) November 27, 2022

Hi.#Ukraine️ #RussiaisATerroistState #RussiaUkraineWar #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #Bakhmut #armedForces #Nikopol
#NewYork #Zaporizhzia #Kyiv #ukrainecounteroffensive#KhersonisUkraine #Biden pic.twitter.com/f9BkkvXpty

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) November 27, 2022

☺️#Ukraine️ #RussiaisATerroistState #RussiaUkraineWar #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #Bakhmut #armedForces #Nikopol
#NewYork #Zaporizhzia #Kyiv #ukrainecounteroffensive#KhersonisUkraine #Biden pic.twitter.com/VI8xwayYSx

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) November 27, 2022

Helena from Project Lyta is on site in Ukraine! And she has a tactical cat!

Cats.#Ukraine️ #RussiaisATerroistState #RussiaUkraineWar #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #Bakhmut #armedForces #Nikopol
#NewYork #Zaporizhzia #Kyiv #ukrainecounteroffensive#KhersonisUkraine #Biden pic.twitter.com/ZqxhBFCRCg

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) November 25, 2022

Orphan Black was, apparently, a documentary…

Open thread!

FacebookTweetEmail
Previous Post: «You Guys Were So Right About The Lincoln Lawyer You Guys Were So Right About The Lincoln Lawyer
Next Post: Late Night Open Thread: Every Experience At Second Hand »

Reader Interactions

64Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose

    November 27, 2022 at 8:34 pm

    A terrible way to die in service of a terrible strategy and a terrible policy made by terrible people who have no care for anyone but themselves.

    Indeed. And honestly at times it seems like they have no care for themselves, either.

    That Granny is amazing. “The mood is fighting, mate! In spite of everything.” Yet another awesome person in a country full of them.

    This Kvartal 95 song was really nice, especially since it mentions putin in The Hague. A beautiful thought, indeed!

    Thank you as always, Adam. Especially for the extra cats.

  2. 2.

    RobertDSC-Mac Mini

    November 27, 2022 at 8:39 pm

    Orphan Black was, apparently, a documentary…

    Such a great series. I still have Funko Pops on my desk from that show.

    On one hand, I just can’t imagine what those conscripts are thinking, suffering as they are. But on the other hand, ejecting them from Ukrainian territory, one way or another, is the goal.

  3. 3.

    David 🦃The Establishment🥧 Koch

    November 27, 2022 at 8:40 pm

    Freeze gopher!

  4. 4.

    Ksmiami

    November 27, 2022 at 8:44 pm

    Donated w captain Kelly. Russia needs to be punished and rebuilt from scratch

  5. 5.

    Another Scott

    November 27, 2022 at 9:10 pm

    Thanks for the John A Ridge thread. He seems to be an SMU undergrad (’24). !!!

    There have been noises in the news that russia may be preparing to leave the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. I see that it’s on the left bank of the river, so that would be big news. ISW’s interactive map shows that the plant area has had “Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare”, so if they are packing to leave the partisans would have a very big victory.

    Fingers crossed.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  6. 6.

    West of the Rockies

    November 27, 2022 at 9:26 pm

    Anyone seen the vid (DailyKos) of zombie Russian troops barely reacting to a bomb being dropped in their foxhole? They seem to be in  very bad way.

  7. 7.

    phdesmond

    November 27, 2022 at 9:27 pm

    thanks again, Adam, for your wide-ranging research from which we benefit every night.

  8. 8.

    lashonharangue

    November 27, 2022 at 9:37 pm

    Thanks Adam for your continuing efforts.  Dumb question from someone with no military experience – how do the mobiks know the coordinates of their command centers further in the rear?  And how would they be able to communicate that to UKR military?

  9. 9.

    Carlo Graziani

    November 27, 2022 at 9:42 pm

    @Another Scott: Wow.

  10. 10.

    wombat probabilty cloud

    November 27, 2022 at 9:45 pm

    Surrender videos were powerful. Will now transition from donating to Kelly’s campaign [insert big sigh of relief] to the generators. I’ve been wondering about the missile math. Thanks so much, Adam!

  11. 11.

    Urza

    November 27, 2022 at 9:45 pm

    @West of the Rockies: I was watching that earlier.  I’ve had some seriously unmotivated days in my life but you have to be in awful shape to ignore the cold and bombs dropping on you and barely even move.  Russian mothers should be taking up arms against the Kremlin in numbers larger than the current military over that.

  12. 12.

    Ksmiami

    November 27, 2022 at 9:50 pm

    @West of the Rockies: hypothermia… I’d feel bad, but Russians need to step up

  13. 13.

    Jay

    November 27, 2022 at 9:56 pm

    The current condition of the Ukrainian positions in Bahkmut. Ukrainians holding despite incessant Russian attacks and grim conditions, which will only get worse as the winter is on the verge. pic.twitter.com/MopfZbYwE0— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 26, 2022

  14. 14.

    featheredsprite

    November 27, 2022 at 9:57 pm

    @West of the Rockies: Yes, I saw it. Very sad.

    Is Putin engaging in some ethnic cleansing?

  15. 15.

    Jay

    November 27, 2022 at 10:02 pm

    https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2126845507765

    “Chef José Andrés of the World Central Kitchen speaks with Rosemary Barton Live about his efforts to feed millions of Ukrainians and bring them hope through food. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy awarded the chef the country’s Order of Merit.’

  16. 16.

    West of the Rockies

    November 27, 2022 at 10:18 pm

    @featheredsprite:

    I am beyond stupefied that the Russians evidently care so little for their own. Surely the vid is somehow being presented to Russians on some tentacle of the intertubes.

  17. 17.

    Bill Arnold

    November 27, 2022 at 10:22 pm

    That Defense of Ukraine video on surrender procedures is good. I noticed that it makes a point of saying that Russians, unlike Ukrainians, do not have proper training in the rules of war. (Carlo described it  here. I am fairly sure that the lack of such training in Russia’s armed forces is quite deliberate, though.)

    While poking, found these. The thesis/third link is very long; I just did keyword searches on it.
    The ICRC on International Humanitarian Law and Russia:
    https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v2_cou_ru

    Via a book review:
    Russia’s Approaches to International Humanitarian Law (13.04.2022, Caroline von Gall)

    Russian Contributions to International Humanitarian Law / Part II: Russia’s Contemporary Approach to IHL (Using google translate in Chrome!)
    (Russian Contributions to International Humanitarian Law, Michael Riepl, A contrastive analysis of Russia’s historical role and its current practice)

  18. 18.

    Chetan Murthy

    November 27, 2022 at 10:22 pm

    @West of the Rockies: I just hope that these poor Russian soldiers do the self-preservative thing, and *surrender*.  If they also give up some coordinates of command nodes, hey, that’s gravy.  But if they’ll just *surrender*, they’ll save themselves and shorten the war.  Three hots and a cot, ffs.

  19. 19.

    Carlo Graziani

    November 27, 2022 at 10:28 pm

    ISW has an analysis of the Russian defensive preparations in Kherson oblast, and what it implies about Russian expectations about the near future of the war. It is very good.

  20. 20.

    Gin & Tonic

    November 27, 2022 at 10:39 pm

    Here’s a good Twitter thread about what it’s like living in Kyiv these days:

    Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/ pic.twitter.com/Ij98ik3Fcl
    — Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) November 27, 2022

  21. 21.

    Sister Golden Bear

    November 27, 2022 at 10:43 pm

    @Urza: They were likely in the severe stages of hypothermia where your brain literally starts shutting down.

  22. 22.

    Jay

    November 27, 2022 at 10:46 pm

    A house in Kherson region where occupiers lived after killing the owners.49-year-old Serhiy Novosad was killed with a shot from a machine gun, with the barrel put in his mouth.78-year-old Lyubov Novosad was shot in the head and thrown into a ditch along with her canes. pic.twitter.com/Kqc2DMmu4n— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 27, 2022

  23. 23.

    zhena gogolia

    November 27, 2022 at 10:46 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Really interesting. Thanks.

  24. 24.

    zhena gogolia

    November 27, 2022 at 10:46 pm

    @West of the Rockies: Those who want to know, know everything.

  25. 25.

    West of the Rockies

    November 27, 2022 at 10:50 pm

    @Chetan Murthy:

    But then what, I wonder… they go home damaged (and maybe demented). They take it out on their wives and kids.  Alcohol and PTSD and an almost genetic lack of humanity take hold.  What kind of society is that?

    Sting wondered if the Russians love their children, too. I hope so.  But that heinous government and national criminal community just continues to cause ruin.

  26. 26.

    Jay

    November 27, 2022 at 10:53 pm

    @West of the Rockies:

    Even in Izium, there were people, who haven't heard of the Bucha massacre 6 or 7 months later. Having access to phones and the internet doesn't mean that everyone has access to information, to make informed decisions.— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 27, 2022

    Russian population with constant propaganda has even less idea of what's actually happening. Even people who understand horror, crimes, and everything, would support finishing war, as 🇷🇺 loss is unimaginable.— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 27, 2022

  27. 27.

    OB-118

    November 27, 2022 at 10:55 pm

    @Carlo Graziani: An excellent read; the map of the known fortified positions on the ground lines of communication and also analysis of their vulnerability to flanking is particularly instructive to my mind. It could be that the Russians are stretched too thin to defend  adequately the parts of Ukraine they still hold.

  28. 28.

    Chetan Murthy

    November 27, 2022 at 10:55 pm

    Arthur Koestler on the Holodomor (and Soviet life): https://understandingsociety.blogspot.com/2022/11/koestlers-observations-of-soviet.html

    When conditions become insupportable, men react according to their temperament in roughly three ways: — by rebellion, apathy or self-deception. The Soviet citizen knows that rebellion against the largest and most perfect police machinery in history amounts to suicide. So the majority lives in a state of outward apathy and inner cynicism; while the minority lives by self-deception. (Part Two, section IV)

    via Understanding Society.

  29. 29.

    Tony G

    November 27, 2022 at 10:57 pm

    @Alison Rose: Putin’s regime has been abusing its own soldiers for more than nine months now.  I assume that a regime like Putin’s is inherently brittle — it will appear powerful until the day it collapses.  I wonder when the Russian soldiers and their families will finally rebel?  Or maybe I’m being too optimistic.

  30. 30.

    Tony G

    November 27, 2022 at 11:04 pm

    @OB-118: “It could be that the Russians are stretched too thin to defend  adequately the parts of Ukraine they still hold.”   Gee.  I thought that that was the problem that the mass forced conscription was supposed to have solve.  Yet another cruel and incompetent maneuver by Putin.

  31. 31.

    Jay

    November 27, 2022 at 11:09 pm

    @Tony G:

    here is a soldier,

    Worried Russian soldier in the Donetsk direction talks about the upcoming Ukrainian attack on them. He says the order was given to Ukrainians by Americans and adds that platoon commanders keep changing as they get killed. pic.twitter.com/aKCzlFK8cs— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 26, 2022

    clinging to CT.

  32. 32.

    Carlo Graziani

    November 27, 2022 at 11:11 pm

    @zhena gogolia: But many surely despair, or simply live in dull fear that doubt is unsafe.

    This is Russia. You understand this better than most here. It is one of the hardest — and loneliest — places in the world  to be a moral hero. If people are afraid to stand up to power in Russia, they may not deserve medals, but neither do they deserve our contempt.

    Most of us have not lived with the fear of doing what’s right that they do.  We should not assume that we would have the moral courage required by the occasion. The simple statistical evidence is that most people fail that test, irrespective of where they are born.

  33. 33.

    OB-118

    November 27, 2022 at 11:17 pm

    @Tony G: Aye, that is one of the tragedies of this war. I hope that most of the recently-mobilized Russians choose safety in Ukraine.

  34. 34.

    Ken

    November 27, 2022 at 11:17 pm

    @Tony G: I thought that that was the problem that the mass forced conscription was supposed to have solve.

    Which of the mass forced conscriptions would that be?  The one where they emptied the prisons, or the one that was of the general population?  I may be forgetting one.

  35. 35.

    Chetan Murthy

    November 27, 2022 at 11:19 pm

    TIL that Sikorsky (the famous heliicopter designer and inventor) was born in Kyiv.  And fled Soviet Russia b/c the Bolsheviks threatened to shoot him.  Every time I turn around, I learn about some other Ukrainian historical  figure, or scientific figure, whom we all thought of as *Russian*.

  36. 36.

    West of the Rockies

    November 27, 2022 at 11:21 pm

    @Carlo Graziani:

    I encountered a handful of Russian students in my CC developmental English courses.  They were good young people.  It’s their government and national toxic masculinity, both of which promote criminality of all sorts that is poisoning the citizenry.  That’s my take, anyway.

  37. 37.

    Jay

    November 27, 2022 at 11:22 pm

    Russia's strategy for decades to come is discussed on Russian state TV. Along with the claim that the Ukrainian language does not exist, pundit predicts Russia's absorption of the neighboring countries into "one big Russian home," with eventual expansion to the Balkans & Poland. pic.twitter.com/NfXxnAPozw— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) November 27, 2022

  38. 38.

    Jay

    November 27, 2022 at 11:26 pm

    Hi, I'm here to talk about your ammo depots extended warranty pic.twitter.com/VbLPBgtjWl— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) November 27, 2022

  39. 39.

    Jay

    November 27, 2022 at 11:27 pm

    We just helped @RedBull launch their new global marketing campaign. It's surprisingly honest. pic.twitter.com/4XiyV3g9wb— Ukraine Solidarity Project (@SolidarityUKR) November 25, 2022

  40. 40.

    Jay

    November 27, 2022 at 11:29 pm

    Saint Javelin is throwing a Christmas benefit concert in Toronto!🎄Join us at Lee’s Palace on Saturday, December 17thAll proceeds from the night will go to the Help Us Help charity for their winter sleeping bag drive.Tickets are now available!https://t.co/xmaeIg3JDu pic.twitter.com/19zxVMDoh4— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) November 25, 2022

  41. 41.

    Jay

    November 27, 2022 at 11:34 pm

    Here is a list of some charities/groups/etc we enjoy over here at NAFO!Please remember this list is not the end all, be all of who to donate to. This is simply a start point for those looking for good places to donate ❤️‍🔥https://t.co/8EsNfMzzyI— North Atlantic Fella Organization (@Official_NAFO) November 26, 2022

  42. 42.

    ian

    November 27, 2022 at 11:38 pm

    @West of the Rockies:

    an almost genetic lack of humanity

    I wish people wouldn’t think like this.  There is no link here between genetics and the behavior we are seeing from the Russian military, it is all cultural.  Thinking that societies behave in certain ways because of genetics or inherent traits is an ugly and inaccurate way of thinking about genes.  If you took the sperm off some random Russian and raised the baby in Canada it wouldn’t turn out any different than any other Canadian.

    Nothing personal, just that it is a terrible way of thinking about other nationalities.

  43. 43.

    bookworm1398

    November 27, 2022 at 11:50 pm

    Adam, do you have any estimates for total killed, Russian and Ukrainian to date? I used to see those numbers in the news in the early days of the war, but lately there has been nothing.

  44. 44.

    Ruckus

    November 27, 2022 at 11:53 pm

    @West of the Rockies:

    I imagine that Russia is pretty much every man, woman and child for themselves these days. As it has been for a very long time. Seeing that 5 mile long traffic jam at the border when called up pretty much spelled it out for me, except I already knew that the oligarchs in Russia are ripping off everyone and vlad is the head oligarch.

  45. 45.

    Anoniminous

    November 27, 2022 at 11:58 pm

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Those things are a joke.  Even in the US Civil War military engineers knew enough to create 360 degree emplacements to protect/guard ground lines of communications or at a minimum refuse the flanks by constructing trenches angled out from the main line of defense.  Russians have historically sucked at military engineering and it appears the tradition continues.

  46. 46.

    West of the Rockies

    November 28, 2022 at 12:00 am

    @ian:

    I said “almost”, which ( I hoped) indicated I do not think Russians are genuinely genetically evil.

    When did their culture become so toxic do you think? Tolstoy’s War and Peace surely indicates a culture that was not wholly ruinous.  There is a long tradition of great Russian artists and writers and thinkers.  What and where did it go south?

  47. 47.

    ian

    November 28, 2022 at 12:08 am

    @West of the Rockies:

    I don’t know enough to speculate, at least not with any accuracy.

    I wasn’t trying to play ‘gotcha’ regarding your beliefs about it, just stating my opposition to thinking about peoples and nations in terms of genetics.

    To steal a line from Another Scott, Cheers.

  48. 48.

    Redshift

    November 28, 2022 at 12:14 am

    @Chetan Murthy:

    I just hope that these poor Russian soldiers do the self-preservative thing, and *surrender*. If they also give up some coordinates of command nodes, hey, that’s gravy. But if they’ll just *surrender*, they’ll save themselves and shorten the war. Three hots and a cot, ffs.

    I suspect plenty of them are not in a position to surrender. If they’re not directly in combat, they would have to escape their position and get to the Ukrainian forces, not knowing exactly where they are. If they are on the front lines, they don’t know if they’ll be able to convey that they’re surrendering as they approach. I doubt it’s ever an easy decision, even if you trust that you’ll be treated well.

  49. 49.

    Anoniminous

    November 28, 2022 at 12:20 am

    @West of the Rockies: ​
     
    The short answer:
    The intellectual (intelligentsia) class was always very thin. Stalin put paid to most of them by murder, suppressing their writings, or both.

  50. 50.

    West of the Rockies

    November 28, 2022 at 12:25 am

    @Anoniminous:

    That’s a grim but likely accurate observation.   Fascists do not like people who think for themselves, who can imagine better ways of living.

    No wonder the American right so revile academia, science, books…

  51. 51.

    Carlo Graziani

    November 28, 2022 at 12:38 am

    @Anoniminous: Yeah. There’s also an aspect of strategic incoherence to the whole thing, as if a half-formed order had been issued and half understood. It’s not clear whether they think they need to defend towards Crimea or Melitopol. Also, they’ve prepared all these defenses, but they’re shipping manpower east so they can’t really man them properly, so how does any of this make sense when they have a major offensive in progress in Donetsk drawing forces away from Kherson, as well as Prigozhin’s circus in Bakhmut?

  52. 52.

    Torrey

    November 28, 2022 at 12:52 am

    Andrew Weiss has written a graphic novel, The Accidental Czar: The Life and Lies of Vladimir Putin, delving into Putin’s background and the (possible) reasons behind his behavior. PBS Newshour has a pretty good interview with the author, including a summary of how Putin created a fake persona as a tough, disciplined KGB operativehere. Weiss observes that “there’s something about Ukraine that drives Putin into paroxysms of self-injury.”

  53. 53.

    Jay

    November 28, 2022 at 1:20 am

    Fascist #Kremlin propagandist #Simonyan's motivational monologue for the mobilized. Rumors are that well over 120,000 Russians are KIA, MIA, WIA in #Ukraine – in 9 months. To paraphrase – "You must die for your Motherland in silence & be thankful!"pic.twitter.com/LUcdzoCARv— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) November 27, 2022

  54. 54.

    lowtechcyclist

    November 28, 2022 at 6:24 am

    Apparently a shitload of Russian conscripts have come down with an unknown infectious disease at one of their mass training centers in Russia.  (Too bad, so sad!) Thread here in Threadreader form for easy reading.

    Apparently there’s a long history of stuff like this in Russia, which is hardly surprising once you think about it.

  55. 55.

    zhena gogolia

    November 28, 2022 at 6:42 am

    @Carlo Graziani: I agree with everything you say. Still I am devastated by what Russia has become.

  56. 56.

    zhena gogolia

    November 28, 2022 at 6:44 am

    @Jay: When Putler met with the “mothers” (mostly actors or activists), he went on about how everybody has to die some day.

  57. 57.

    HeartlandLiberal

    November 28, 2022 at 7:27 am

    If half of Congress weren’t paid off vassals of Putin and Russia, Congress should pass legislation declaring Russia a Terrorist State. They are committing war crimes by attacking civilians. They torture people. The kidnap children and relocated them. All defined as war crimes.

  58. 58.

    Jinchi

    November 28, 2022 at 9:18 am

    @zhena gogolia: When Putler met with the “mothers” (mostly actors or activists)

    I’ve seen that written several times before. How do people know these women are actors or activists? Have they been identified?

  59. 59.

    Carlo Graziani

    November 28, 2022 at 9:44 am

    @Anoniminous: You know, now that I’ve slept on it, I can’t help wondering whether the prepared defenses along the roads leading east of Svatove-Kreminna are equally ineptly laid out. ISW’s imagery only covered Kherson oblast.

    Frozen ground conditions forecast for late this week…

  60. 60.

    zhena gogolia

    November 28, 2022 at 9:48 am

    @Jinchi: Yes.

  61. 61.

    Armadillo

    November 28, 2022 at 10:09 am

    @adam silverman.  I know this a day (or two) late, but thank you for adding the citation to Rob Lee (and DefMon3) the other day.  And this update has citations to other sources of information as well.  Thank you once again for your work on these updates.​

  62. 62.

    Chetan Murthy

    November 28, 2022 at 11:05 am

    @HeartlandLiberal: I have read that the US laws on that sort of thing are pretty strict: a foreign entity doing business with a terrorist state instantly comes under sanction.  And there are no exceptions for things like grain or other foodstuffs.  Or fertilizer.  This would impact our European allies, and  apparently part of why we balk at applying the designation, is precisely that: we don’t want to end up sanctioning our own allies at this moment.

    For instance, until even recently (maybe even now?) Gazprom sends  gas to Europe thru a pipeline that transits … Ukraine.

  63. 63.

    beckya57

    November 28, 2022 at 12:44 pm

    That first comment has such strong Russia WWI pre-Bolshevik revolution vibes (under-supported soldiers in field), and we all know how that turned out.

  64. 64.

    Torrey

    November 28, 2022 at 3:13 pm

    @Jinchi: There are pictures of at least a couple of the women that either show them in different roles or else are actors’ headshots. I don’t recall exactly.

Comments are closed.

Primary Sidebar

🎈Keep Balloon Juice Ad Free

Become a Balloon Juice Patreon
Donate with Venmo, Zelle or PayPal

2023 Pet Calendars

Pet Calendar Preview: A
Pet Calendar Preview: B

*Calendars can not be ordered until Cafe Press gets their calendar paper in.

Recent Comments

  • lowtechcyclist on Open Thread: Another Day, Another Crime, Another Grand Jury (Jan 31, 2023 @ 5:28am)
  • bookworm1398 on War for Ukraine Day 340: Just a Brief Update Tonight (Jan 31, 2023 @ 5:26am)
  • lowtechcyclist on Open Thread: Another Day, Another Crime, Another Grand Jury (Jan 31, 2023 @ 5:24am)
  • WereBear on Entertainment Open Thread: Happy Birthday, Mr. Hackman! (Jan 31, 2023 @ 5:19am)
  • Wvng on Entertainment Open Thread: Happy Birthday, Mr. Hackman! (Jan 31, 2023 @ 5:19am)

Balloon Juice Posts

View by Topic
View by Author
View by Month & Year
View by Past Author

Featuring

Medium Cool
Artists in Our Midst
Authors in Our Midst
We All Need A Little Kindness
Favorite Dogs & Cats
Classified Documents: A Primer

Calling All Jackals

Site Feedback
Nominate a Rotating Tag
Submit Photos to On the Road
Balloon Juice Mailing List Signup

Front-pager Twitter

John Cole
DougJ (aka NYT Pitchbot)
Betty Cracker
Tom Levenson
TaMara
David Anderson
ActualCitizensUnited

Shop Amazon via this link to support Balloon Juice   

Join the Fight!

Join the Fight Signup Form
All Join the Fight Posts

Balloon Juice Events

5/14  The Apocalypse
5/20  Home Away from Home
5/29  We’re Back, Baby
7/21  Merging!

Balloon Juice for Ukraine

Donate

Site Footer

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Comment Policy
  • Our Authors
  • Blogroll
  • Our Artists
  • Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2023 Dev Balloon Juice · All Rights Reserved · Powered by BizBudding Inc

Share this ArticleLike this article? Email it to a friend!

Email sent!