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You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29

by Anne Laurie|  November 29, 20227:26 am| 54 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19 Coronavirus, Foreign Affairs

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I'm over the "pandemic of the unvaccinated and undervaccinated" stuff but ONLY 11% HAVE RECEIVED THE BIVALENT BOOSTER.

Boosters will save more American lives than our military ever could. You shouldn't be able to turn on anything with out a reminder to get that bivalent booster. https://t.co/EDkVyIf7j5

— L O L G O P (@LOLGOP) November 28, 2022

It doesn't help that the @CDCgov still defines "fully vaccinated" as 2 shots, when it would now have taken 5 shots to counter the waning immunity/protect vs severe Covid for people age 50+

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) November 28, 2022



COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29

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The pandemic isn't over. Besides the major trouble that is brewing in China, it's notable that Japan's new wave has exceeded its Omicron BA.1 surge, averaging over 100,000 cases/day, and still is on steep ascent@OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/XnNveiLs33

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) November 28, 2022

"It is a genuinely wicked problem, they are going to have hundreds of thousands, maybe over a million deaths if they lift zero Covid as it is now."@BeijingPalmer on China's zero Covid policy. pic.twitter.com/wsgRyYd3mz

— TonightVMTV (@TonightVMTV) November 28, 2022

A BBC journalist was detained in Shanghai, so they are possibly not an entirely unbiased source:

How five dramatic days of China's Covid protests unfolded https://t.co/1RwxPg10Gb pic.twitter.com/ep8zNIvZN8

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) November 29, 2022

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29 9
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29 10
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“Analysts said private demand for Covid-related medical equipment revealed a lack of confidence in China’s state-backed health system in dealing with a nationwide coronavirus outbreak.” https://t.co/F4E4bJ9hQX

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) November 28, 2022

At least we're still doing this- but again, Hong Kong style indoor air quality regulations for these businesses would let them operate at capacity. They've already done the leg work and worked with Mainland standards and scientists on it. https://t.co/nfNr4o8XMU

— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) November 27, 2022

10-day incoming hotel quarantine.
PCR testing every 72 hours.
Mandatory N/KN95 masks indoors
Minimum of ACH6 for all business and public indoor spaces
Roof exhaust fans for all buildings over five stories
One national contact tracing app.

You would have almost no lockdowns

— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) November 26, 2022

The decree, dated May 29, 2022, came 2 weeks after North Korea admitted it was facing COVID outbreak for 1st time.

It described any criticism of the country’s pandemic policy as “anti-state” activities & subject to punishment.

Shorter news version herehttps://t.co/CJVF1x1f8P

— Jeongmin Kim (@jeongminnkim) November 28, 2022

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29 1
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29 2
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29 3
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Them: The COVID-19 vaccines don’t work. The majority of hospitalizations/deaths/infections are fully vaccinated.

Me: Base Rate Fallacy would like a word with you. pic.twitter.com/do3WHAtCB1

— Chise ?????????????? (@sailorrooscout) November 25, 2022


Slightly reformatted, for ease of reading:

Let’s try something. Most people get this question wrong. Can you solve it? A town has only two colours of car: 85% are blue and 15% are green. A person witnesses a hit-and-run and says they saw a green car. If witnesses identify the colour of cars correctly 80% of the time, what are the chances the car is actually green?

You might have said 80%. A lot of people do. The correct answer is 41%. The reason so many struggle with this question is due to the Base Rate Fallacy. Our brains tend to ignore statistical information (aka base rates) and focus on specific information related to people and events. We’re distracted by the witness, and forget how rare green cars are in the town. This problem uses Bayes Theorem. If we randomly selected 100 cars, 85 would be blue and 15 would be green. If a witness correctly identifies green cars 80% of the time they will identify 12 green cars correctly (80% × 15 green cars). The witness misidentifies 20% then they will misidentify 17 cars as green when they are actually blue (20% x 85 blue cars). In this case. 29 cars would be identified as green (12 + 17) but only 12 actually are green. Therefore there is only a 41% chance that the car the witness identified is actually green (12/29 = 0.41).

THE BASE RATE FALLACY CAN SHOW UP IN LOTS OF PLACES, INCLUDING IN OUR UNDERSTANDING OF COVID-19 DEATHS OR HOSPITALIZATIONS. For example, last summer, Iceland saw a rise in COVID-19 cases, and most cases were among those fully vaccinated. BUT vaccines STILL WORK. MORE CASES AMONG FULLY VACCINATED PEOPLE IN PLACES WITH HIGH VACCINATION RATES IS NORMAL: But the rate (infections per person) of COVID-19 in Iceland is HIGHER in unvaccinated people than those vaccinated, meaning it’s way better to be vaccinated. Almost everyone eligible for vaccines in Iceland is fully vaccinated. So when COVID cases do happen in Iceland, most of them happen in vaccinated people because they are the vast majority of the population.

Iceland and other countries with high vaccination rates are likely to see more cases among the vaccinated, even though the rate of infection is significantly HIGHER in unvaccinated people. Because there just aren’t that many unvaccinated people for COVID-19 to infect. You can find all of this here: https://scienceupfirst.com/project/the-base-rate-fallacy-affects-how-we-understand-covid-19/ and credit for the extremely informative graphic above goes to @/MarcRummy.

So, when a headline or a random Twitter user says "vaccinated people now make up a majority of deaths" it is innumerate fear-mongering and misinformation when it comes down to it that will make some misinterpret that as "vaccines are only 50% effective” or worse misconceptions. pic.twitter.com/PhtGECwQWl

— Chise 🧬🧫🦠🔬💉🥼🥽 (@sailorrooscout) November 25, 2022

TLDR. The more people you vaccinate, the higher their share of hospitalizations, but the *TOTAL* number in the hospital is a FRACTION of what it would otherwise be. The FEWER people fully vaccinated, a smaller share of hospitalizations will be fully vaccinated as well, BUT this isn’t good. Why? Overall there would be A LOT more people in the hospital or dead because far more of the population is unprotected. In other words, don’t focus on whether fully vaccinated individuals make up a % of hospitalizations, focus on the RATES those individuals whether vaccinated or unvaccinated are ending up in the hospital.

SPOILER ALERT: Rates are A LOT higher for unvaccinated. An increasing ratio of hospitalized vaccinated individuals however is an inevitable result of increasing vaccination rates. It is a marker of success, NOT failure.

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29 4
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29 5
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Sold here as Eliquis:
COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29 6
(link)

========

No paywall:

Desperate with #LongCovid: People are turning to risky unproven therapies. Unconventional treatments put patients at risk of potentially harmful health effects as well as having their hopes dashed and wallets emptied https://t.co/gAXkQuFiho

— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) November 27, 2022

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29 7

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Nov. 28-29 8
(link)

WATCH: @mattsgorman says the origins of Covid could be a unifying issue for House Republicans on the Oversight Committee.

"You will never ever, ever lose votes by taking on China." pic.twitter.com/Zz0MdhlxEn

— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) November 27, 2022

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Reader Interactions

54Comments

  1. 1.

    NeenerNeener

    November 29, 2022 at 7:37 am

    Monroe County, NY:

    56 new cases on 11/25/22.
    49 new cases on 11/26/22.
    38 new cases on 11/27/22.
    66 new cases on 11/28/22.

    Deaths at 2088, up 9 from last week

  2. 2.

    Amir Khalid

    November 29, 2022 at 7:40 am

    Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 2,465 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 4,988,759 cases. It also reported five deaths, for an adjusted cumulative total of 36,657 deaths – 0.73% of the cumulative reported total, 0.74% of resolved cases.

    41,713 Covid-19 tests were conducted on 26th November, with a positivity rate of 7.7%.

    There were 27,638 active cases yesterday, 431 more than the day before. 1,932 were in hospital. 92 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 51 confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 2,029 more patients recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,924,464 patients recovered – 98.7% of the cumulative reported total.

    2,464 new cases reported yesterday were local infections. One new case was imported.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 1,719 doses of vaccine on 28th November: 39 first doses, 43 second doses, 216 first booster doses, and 1,421 second booster doses. The cumulative total is 72,487,492 doses administered: 28,114,796 first doses, 27,525,609 second doses, 16,264,387 first booster doses, and 582,700 second booster doses. 86.1% of the population have received their first dose, 84.3% their second dose, 49.8% their first booster dose, and 1.8% their second booster dose.

  3. 3.

    New Deal democrat

    November 29, 2022 at 7:47 am

    The winter wave has probably begun, starting several weeks ago. Biobot shows an increase nationwide, and in every region except the Northeast. The nationwide increase has been 20% above the 6 month low earlier in November, to still quite low levels.

    Confirmed increases have declined to 38,800, after rising to 46,400, a 6 week high, last week. Hospitalizations have risen to 27,000, a two month high, and over 4,000 above their October low. At 313, deaths are still very close to their 6 month low, and still lower than at all but 2 months during the pandemic.

    Confirmed cases continue to rise in the West, are steady in the Midwest, and still declining in the Northeast and South.

    The CDC showed last Friday that the Alphabet soup of new variants made up 75% of all new cases, with BA.5 fading to 20%, and other older variants making up 5%.

    All things considered, this is as good a situation as could be reasonably hoped for. We will probably see another increase in cases from last week’s Thanksgiving get-togethers. So far, this incipient wave is close to the BA.2.12.1 and BA.5 templates of smaller waves earlier this year.

    Via Eric Topol,
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1597244033780174849?cxt=HHwWgsCi0Y6_xqosAAAA
    Mortality from COVID is even more a matter of age. 75% of all deaths now occur among those 75 and older, with only 2% (or about 4 a day) among those younger than 50. The unvaccinated older population accounts for about 2/3’s of all deaths. But vaccinated seniors remain at risk as well.

  4. 4.

    Steeplejack

    November 29, 2022 at 7:49 am

    Speaking of formatting, lately some of the text inclusions, such as the “green car” one above, have the text centered instead of flush left. Not a big deal here, but occasionally, with short paragraphs, it looks very odd.

  5. 5.

    Steeplejack

    November 29, 2022 at 7:51 am

    I have a dentist’s appointment this morning. It will be interesting to see if the staff is still masked up. They were when I was last there in early September.

  6. 6.

    Amir Khalid

    November 29, 2022 at 7:57 am

    You will never ever, ever lose votes by taking on China.

    Matt Gorman kind of gives away the game plan here: it’s not really about establishing the origin of Covid-19, it’s about rallying Republicans around a xenophobic talking point.

  7. 7.

    NeenerNeener

    November 29, 2022 at 7:57 am

    So, based on that Delthia Ricks tweet, Mother Nature is still trying as hard as she can to kill us all.

  8. 8.

    Jeffg166

    November 29, 2022 at 8:03 am

    If people want to play Russian roulette with their lives I am fine with that.

    In another week or so we will find out just how much of a surge there will be after the Thanksgiving gatherings.

    If a disproportionate number of Republicans die as a result of their own stupidity I can live with it.

  9. 9.

    Amir Khalid

    November 29, 2022 at 8:03 am

    @NeenerNeener:

    Mother Nature is still trying as hard as she can to kill us all.

    ‘Twas ever thus. Mother Nature was never the gentle, loving parent depicted in her marketing.

  10. 10.

    Steeplejack

    November 29, 2022 at 8:03 am

    @NeenerNeener:

    We know what we did.

  11. 11.

    stinger

    November 29, 2022 at 8:13 am

    Thank you for continuing these posts, Anne Laurie. I especially appreciate the Base Rate Fallacy explanation and graphic.

  12. 12.

    BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️

    November 29, 2022 at 8:15 am

    10-day incoming hotel quarantine.
    PCR testing every 72 hours.
    Mandatory N/KN95 masks indoors
    Minimum of ACH6 for all business and public indoor spaces
    Roof exhaust fans for all buildings over five stories
    One national contact tracing app.

    You would have almost no lockdowns

    Who could do this?
    How could ANYBODY do this?

  13. 13.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    November 29, 2022 at 8:28 am

    WATCH: @mattsgorman says the origins of Covid could be a unifying issue for House Republicans on the Oversight Committee.

    “You will never ever, ever lose votes by taking on China.”

    Even with only a 220 seat narrow majority? Impeach the DHS secretary? For what? How can these assholes contine to act like this when they barely won the House as opposed to the 30-40 seat rout they were expecting to win? Not to mention all of the losses in the battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona. I mean, the list goes on. That should be a clue that the American people don’t want this bullshit to them

  14. 14.

    Soprano2

    November 29, 2022 at 8:36 am

    @Steeplejack: Probably will be, my dentist’s staff wore face masks even before Covid because of all the stuff they are exposed to besides Covid. They told me that some of the changes they made when Covid happened will probably be permanent. The dentist bought a washer and dryer for the office so they could wash their uniforms there, for example. They double mask now.

  15. 15.

    Soprano2

    November 29, 2022 at 8:37 am

    @Amir Khalid: I think it’s important to scientists to figure out where Covid came from, but I’m not sure why politicians or the average person would care much about it. It’s just a xenophobic talking point for Republicans.

  16. 16.

    Soprano2

    November 29, 2022 at 8:39 am

    @BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️: She posts IMHO unrealistic stuff a lot. She seems to believe every government has unlimited money for constant PCR testing (and how is that going to work in any country that’s not a dictatorship anyway), and that every building owner could easily afford to do what she suggests. She seems like a forever-masker to me.

  17. 17.

    Brachiator

    November 29, 2022 at 8:46 am

    @New Deal democrat:

    Mortality from COVID is even more a matter of age. 75% of all deaths now occur among those 75 and older, with only 2% (or about 4 a day) among those younger than 50. The unvaccinated older population accounts for about 2/3’s of all deaths. But vaccinated seniors remain at risk as well.

    It would seem reasonable to concentrate on getting vaccinations and boosters for people age 50 and older. But I don’t know if public health efforts are as robust as earlier in the pandemic. I also wonder whether red states care at all or whether the idea that vaccination is purely a matter of individual choice is spreading.

    Are vaccines still free and easily available to people without health insurance?

    ETA. The unvaccinated are more at risk than the vaccinated. It’s odd that some want to see the risk as equal.

  18. 18.

    BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️

    November 29, 2022 at 8:50 am

    @Soprano2: Noted.

    Just making sure I wasn’t the one sounding irrational.

  19. 19.

    BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️

    November 29, 2022 at 8:53 am

    @Steeplejack: I need to find a new one.

    Last visit, everyone was masked, but the assistants were all taken with the then-new “Let’s Go Brandon” meme – they found it hysterical to the point where they were yukking it up within earshot of the entire suite. Haven’t been back and will never look back.

  20. 20.

    Ohio Mom

    November 29, 2022 at 8:54 am

    I tested negative ten days ago and while I still feel a tiny bit better every day, it’s just that, a tiny bit. Still coughing and easily fatigued.

    I have my regular semi-annual check-up with one of my specialists tomorrow, I’ll see what she says. That’s the upside of amassing chronic conditions, you’re never far from a follow-along visit.

  21. 21.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 29, 2022 at 8:57 am

    I’m seeing a lot of social-media-left people getting into blaming the Biden administration for not being harder-core on mask mandates and closures, which at this point I think is kind of like demanding a magic pony. It’s always the Democrats’ fault.

  22. 22.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    November 29, 2022 at 8:58 am

    @BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️:

    Don’t blame you. I’d have done the same thing. I had to get some car work done in early 2021 and the body shop was owned by right-wing Trumpists who had no shame hanging up obnoxious far-right crap on the walls. Decided I didn’t want to give them my business

  23. 23.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 29, 2022 at 9:00 am

    @Soprano2: Don’t forget the “Anthony Fauci, history’s greatest monster” angle. One of the purposes of pushing the lab-leak story is to identify Fauci as complicit in the creation of COVID, because he’s a hate figure for them.

  24. 24.

    Ohio Mom

    November 29, 2022 at 9:01 am

    @Soprano2: My dentist and periodontist both got rid of the paper cup and little sink setup. Now they squirt water into your mouth and suction it out after you finish swishing.

    Makes you think about how many viruses and bacteria got spread around when we all were spitting into the sink, even with its suction flush.

  25. 25.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 29, 2022 at 9:06 am

    Everyone here knows the base rate fallacy is one of my favorite things to talk about. A useful spur to intuition is to think of the extreme case: if EVERYONE were vaccinated, 100% of COVID deaths would be of vaccinated people. All that indicates is that the vaccine is less than 100% effective, which everyone should know regardless–it doesn’t tell you anything about how effective it is beyond that.

  26. 26.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 29, 2022 at 9:09 am

    I also think it’s long past time that we should stop talking about who is “fully vaccinated” (most people in the US are, by now, and it’s especially a large majority in the older age cohorts who are most vulnerable) and concentrate on who is up to date on their shots (a dismayingly small minority). But the base-rate fallacy is something to watch out for regardless.

  27. 27.

    dmsilev

    November 29, 2022 at 9:24 am

    With regards to China, this is a hoot-and-a-half story:

    China links COVID outbreak to man’s jog through a park; Scientists skeptical

    In the early morning of August 16, a 41-year-old man in China’s southwest-central municipality of Chongqing got up and went for a jog along a lake in a local outdoor park—something that should have been a pleasant, if not unremarkable, outing. But what really happened during that 35-minute jaunt has now sparked international alarm and debate, with some scientists doubtful of China’s startling account.

    According to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the unmasked man infected 33 unmasked park visitors and two unmasked park workers with the coronavirus omicron subvariant BA.2.76 during his short run. The agency claimed transmission occurred in fleeting outdoor encounters as he trotted past people on a four-meter-wide foot path. Many others were infected without any close encounter. Twenty of the 33 infected park goers became infected by simply visiting outdoor areas of the park the jogger had previously passed through, including an entrance gate. The two infected workers, meanwhile, quickly passed the infection on to four other colleagues, bringing the jogger’s park outbreak total to 39.

    To support these unusual conclusions, the CCDC cited case interviews, park surveillance footage, and SARS-CoV-2 genetic data, which reportedly linked the cases but is notably absent from the report.

    Basically, I read this as “cases are higher than is politically convenient to admit”.

  28. 28.

    New Deal democrat

    November 29, 2022 at 9:28 am

    @Brachiator: “It would seem reasonable to concentrate on getting vaccinations and boosters for people age 50 and older.”

    Last time I checked the CDC site, something like 80-100 “vaccinated” seniors were dying each day. “Vaccinated” probably meaning at least 2 shots.

    Getting that kind of statistic in front of seniors might spur a lot more to get up to date on their boosters.

    “Are vaccines still free and easily available to people without health insurance?”

    I *think* that is still the case. Whether that will continue after the GOP takes control of the House is another matter.

  29. 29.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 29, 2022 at 9:34 am

    @New Deal democrat: I keep comparing the wastewater/hospitalization situation in my NE neighborhood to last year: things still seem pretty flat and I’m scrutinizing every little uptick in the noise, but at this point a year ago we were already off to the races, with cases rising even before Thanksgiving and ramping up massively after that.

    (I am discounting raw case counts as an indicator of much just because the testing situation is clearly a lot worse than it was in prior seasons. Positivity rates are quite high which means people aren’t getting tested at all unless they’re feeling sick. But wastewater and hospitalization numbers, I trust more as indicators.)

  30. 30.

    Eunicecycle

    November 29, 2022 at 9:43 am

    @New Deal democrat: when my husband and I received our bivalent booster in September, it was free. I am assuming that will stop when the Rs take over the House, although I am not sure they can do that unilaterally. Starting next year all vaccinations are supposed to be free if you are on Medicare.

  31. 31.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 29, 2022 at 9:45 am

    @New Deal democrat:

    Getting that kind of statistic in front of seniors might spur a lot more to get up to date on their boosters.

    It could backfire too–“you lied to me about the other shots working; why are you telling me to get another one?” Ron DeSantis has been pushing that as a way of pandering to antivaxxers. Simplifying the message for general consumption leads to all-or-nothing thinking that causes problems down the line.

    What I’d like to see is stats on the effectiveness of being up-to-date on shots. But I don’t think there’s a lot of that out there yet–it’s still mostly about being “fully vaccinated” which gets more and more irrelevant with time.

  32. 32.

    msdc

    November 29, 2022 at 10:06 am

    A BBC journalist was detained in Shanghai, so they are possibly not an entirely unbiased source:

    I cannot believe that Anne Laurie continues to amplify Zero Covid shill Naomi Wu while calling a BBC journalist a “not entirely unbiased source”… for getting beaten and detained while covering the protests against Zero Covid.

    This is shameful.

  33. 33.

    lowtechcyclist

    November 29, 2022 at 10:12 am

    “You will never ever, ever lose votes by taking on China.”

    Yeah, you fuckers fucking SURRENDERED to China in 2020. Y’all were blaming China from the get-go, but did you want America to do anything to defend against this viral attack? Hell no! You were against masking and social distancing from the very beginning – remember when you stormed the Michigan state capitol? – remember evangelicals saying “we walk in faith, not in fear,” meaning they were going to pack themselves together in churches without any masks on? Because I sure do. And then you were even against the vaccines when they arrived.

    You didn’t take on China, you were a TREASONOUS FIFTH COLUMN within our gates. I don’t know how you make sense of your anti-American so-called ‘patriotism,’ but you are the enemies of your fellow citizens. Period. Full stop.

    ETA:​ And that reminds me of how “pro-life” you are. You shrugged at the Covid deaths of a million of your fellow citizens, to the extent that you weren’t actively complicit, and you shrugged even more at the deaths of fifteen or twenty million people around the world. “Life! Don’t talk to me about life.“

  34. 34.

    Nate Combs

    November 29, 2022 at 10:29 am

    Curious about others Thanksgiving/spreading events – I was with family (6 separate family units, 17 total people) all coming together for the first time in 3 years. All vaccinated, mixed booster. No masks. My 6 month old nephew had the sniffles. On Saturday, my BIL (nephew’s father) tested positive for COVID, and my FIL tested positive on Sunday. I think my baby nephew was the spreader (from daycare). Both that tested positive did not have the booster. My family unit (me +3) are all boosted, and are testing daily, and are still negative. That to me is worth upselling the booster to anybody I know.

  35. 35.

    Bill Arnold

    November 29, 2022 at 10:33 am

    @BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️:

    Who could do this?

    WTF? She is talking about China, in response to a question about China, and China could do it.
    The very next tweet in her thread is this:

    I’m not suggesting this for anyplace else- but China had people doing far more than this for two years- and we managed, with this, it would be even easier and could continue until better treatments and broader acting sterilizing vaccines are available.

    She is not wrong. China has shambled into a long-term few-trillion-dollar competitive advantage (some of it cognitive) due to no long-COVID relative to most of the rest of the world. (I don’t think it was fully intentional, at least initially.) A focus on those measures, learned over the last couple of years, that would have a large effect with low social cost, is the correct course of action. Chinese technocrats are unfortunately collectively failing at an effective transformation of China’s COVID-response, and she is angry. (Frankly, so am I, and not just about China’s response. SARS-CoV-2 is a nasty family of viruses, and downplaying it is, uhm, evilstupid.)

  36. 36.

    Barbara

    November 29, 2022 at 10:36 am

    It’s scary to me, that the “go to,” maybe the only, strategy of the Republican Party is to identify someone as an enemy and pummel relentlessly, regardless of merit, substance, fairness, morality or anything else.  Whether it’s risking the geopolitical consequences of using China as a punching bag or the fundamental indecency of harassing transgendered children and their families, so long as they can gin up enough people to froth at the mouth echoing their furor, they are all in.

  37. 37.

    Bill Arnold

    November 29, 2022 at 10:40 am

    @lowtechcyclist:

    You shrugged at the Covid deaths of a million of your fellow citizens, to the extent that you weren’t actively complicit,,

    Some (I’ve spotted two so far but haven’t really looked) of the 2022 elections were won by Democrats with margins much less than the Republican voter death count minus the Democratic voter death count in their respective electorates. These close elections will be in recount, so not settled yet.

  38. 38.

    CaseyL

    November 29, 2022 at 10:48 am

    I’ve seen some stories about the long-range effect of Covid on our species health, and it’s not good. Interesting stuff about the long-term effects on the pulmonary system, heart, and immunity system. Long Covid is becoming more important to study and track.

    We’ve become so familiar with Covid as an everyday thing that we tend to forget it was and is a new virus, and viruses have unpredictable ripple effects.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    November 29, 2022 at 10:53 am

    @dmsilev: Genomic analysis showed that 85% of the people infected at the park had sequences that exactly matched the jogger, and the others have sequences just a single mutation away, which suggest direct transmission. Peer reviewers can check the sequences if and when the China CDC scientists try to publish the findings in a paper.

  40. 40.

    Barbara

    November 29, 2022 at 10:59 am

    @Bill Arnold:  Our tendency to criticize the Chinese Covid policies says as much about us as it does about China.  Which is to say, Chinese leaders were not willing to just let people die, even those who are old and sick, and in my view, for this China deserves great credit.  The problem for China is that it did not use the last 2+ years to build hospital capacity and has not used the last 18 months to vaccinate the high risk elderly.  Basically, it is imposing the “costs” of lock down on a younger, still working population.  Some stuff is just random — the major Chinese vaccine being somewhat less effective than the mRNA varieties could not possibly have been known —  but from a high level view, it seems like China’s strategy is to try to outrun the pandemic, which looks ever more likely to be ineffective.

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    November 29, 2022 at 11:05 am

    I often find BBC World’s coverage of China to be atrocious, but in this case probably not because their reporter was detained by Chinese police. The mistreatment of foreign reporters by Chinese authorities (surveillance, harassment, occasional detention and rough handling) surely color their coverage, too.

    From the footage shown, I am do not see any evidence of beating, just standard procedure of forcing someone to lie face down to put on handcuffs, and then lifting up stand. Ed Lawrence claims to have been beaten, perhaps he was roughly handled at the precinct. OTOH, the next day Shanghai Police claimed that he was detained for his own benefit to minimize risk of contracting COVID-19, echoed by Chinese MFA spokesman a day later. That is out and out trolling, so I doubt the BBC reporter actually did anything that justified detention.

  42. 42.

    Brachiator

    November 29, 2022 at 11:15 am

    @Nate Combs:

    Curious about others Thanksgiving/spreading events.

    A radio talk show host noted that a relative drove in from another state and announced that he had tested positive for Covid. This person had brought some pets that another relative was going to care for. The pets stayed, but after a lot of rancor the relative was turned away and had to drive back home.

  43. 43.

    YY_Sima Qian

    November 29, 2022 at 11:15 am

    @Barbara: As I shall write in a guest post, China is certainly on the way to opening. The other paths are no longer tenable, there is not enough population compliance to continue a strict mitigation strategy. It is just a question of how long it takes, how many twists & turns, and how painful is the exit wave.

  44. 44.

    Steeplejack

    November 29, 2022 at 11:28 am

    Back home from the dentist and my traditional IHOP breakfast afterwards. The dentist’s staff is still wearing masks (as is the staff at IHOP, come to think of it), but they aren’t berating patients. Two people without masks came in right after me and didn’t get a word from the receptionist. In September an unmasked guy was pointedly issued a mask from the desk.

    @BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️:

    Ugh. Good luck on your hunt. My dentist’s office staff is very “diverse,” which maybe cuts down on the right-wing political bullshit, although my dentist, his partner and (the last year or two) the partner’s two sons are all white guys. Plus it’s deep-blue NoVA.

    My dentist is probably late 50s or about 60, and we usually have a short, enjoyable conversation about classic rock music. He seems fairly hip, but I know that dentists as a group are very conservative, so I stay away from politics, even in a joking way. He’s a great dentist, and I’d hate to have to find a replacement.

  45. 45.

    lowtechcyclist

    November 29, 2022 at 11:33 am

    @CaseyL: ​
     

    We’ve become so familiar with Covid as an everyday thing that we tend to forget it was and is a new virus, and viruses have unpredictable ripple effects.

    This is one of the things that really galls me about the “we blew it by going to remote learning in 2020-2021” stories and op-eds. We still don’t know – won’t know for years – what the medium and long term health effects will be for infected kids.

    Not to mention, even at the time it was clear that even if they didn’t get sick from Covid, kids were still transmitting the virus. Whatever the effects of a year of remote learning might be, they pale before the effects of losing a parent, or even having a parent experience serious health consequences from Covid.

    And of course in the summer of 2020 when these decisions were being made, we still knew so little about Covid-19. I still think remote learning was the right decision, just that the decision to keep the kids on track for the same graduation date was a mistake. But even if one believes remote learning was the wrong choice, it was a choice made in a nightmare world where our hospitals were way overloaded and many people were spending weeks on ventilators.

  46. 46.

    Barbara

    November 29, 2022 at 11:40 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: That certainly seems to be reflected in news as well as the apparent daily uptick in cases.  Zero Covid surely isn’t sustainable as much because Covid itself mutates to make it more costly as well as less effective, but I guess the question is, what happens when the death toll and not just the number of cases goes up?

  47. 47.

    Barbara

    November 29, 2022 at 11:41 am

    @Steeplejack: Not to ruin your day, but my sister got Covid from her dentist, even though he was wearing a shield and face covering.  He tested positive the day after her visit.  She had a mild illness.

    ETA: She lives in our neck of the woods (Burke).

  48. 48.

    lowtechcyclist

    November 29, 2022 at 11:42 am

    @BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️: ​
     

    @Steeplejack: I need to find a new one.

    Last visit, everyone was masked, but the assistants were all taken with the then-new “Let’s Go Brandon” meme – they found it hysterical to the point where they were yukking it up within earshot of the entire suite. Haven’t been back and will never look back.

    Good luck!

    We’re lucky with our dentist. She’s been looking after our teeth since we moved into the county in 1998, and are very happy with her. And she’s a Democrat.

    So @Spanky, if you’re reading this thread and you’re in a similar situation to @BenCisco, I can recommend our dentist. She’s in Prince Frederick.

  49. 49.

    Steeplejack

    November 29, 2022 at 11:50 am

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Genomic analysis showed that 85% of the people infected at the park had sequences that exactly matched the jogger [. . .].

    If they haven’t released the results of the analysis, is this based on anything more than a statement from the authorities?

  50. 50.

    Steeplejack

    November 29, 2022 at 11:58 am

    @Barbara:

    Thanks for that cheery note! 😹 I have had all five shots, and my elderly shut-in lifestyle limits my exposure in general, so I guess I’m okay with (less than) an hour at the dentist’s. Heck, I even got a haircut yesterday. Living on the edge!

  51. 51.

    J R in WV

    November 29, 2022 at 1:17 pm

    @Steeplejack:

    My dentist is probably late 50s or about 60, and we usually have a short, enjoyable conversation about classic rock music. He seems fairly hip, but I know that dentists as a group are very conservative, so I stay away from politics, even in a joking way. He’s a great dentist, and I’d hate to have to find a replacement.

    My quite excellent dentist is a little younger than I am, and is retiring the end of this year. He’s Jewish and liberal and we’ve been under his care for 30+ years. I met the guy who bought the practice, no telling where he stands politically.

    I’m going to Stewart’s retirement party, and plan to ask the new guy up front whether he is an R or not. I won’t have a MAGA’s hands in my mouth, the thought makes me upset as in sick.

  52. 52.

    Dadadadadadada

    November 29, 2022 at 2:10 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They know the American people don’t want what they’re pushing. That’s why they work so hard to prevent the American people from voting.

    And they don’t care how slim their majority is, or if it’s even remotely feasible to do any of the awful things they promise. They have power, and they intend to abuse it. End of story.

  53. 53.

    Steeplejack

    November 29, 2022 at 5:22 pm

    @J R in WV:

    I won’t have a MAGA’s hands in my mouth.

    🤢

    ETA: Maybe ask Stewart for a line on the new guy. Less confrontational? And you can always “escalate,” of course. 😹

  54. 54.

    YY_Sima Qian

    November 30, 2022 at 12:50 am

    @Steeplejack: Probably dead thread, but the findings were published China CDC’s in-house weekly:

    https://covid.dropcite.com/articles/0bda88cc-8aaf-4de6-94f2-4bd23ee5c036

    This report has not actually be highlighted by the state propaganda apparatus, yet.

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