Today is the anniversary of the Soviet Union’s invasion of Finland in 1939.
Of course, we didn't actually invade Finland. We "assisted" the new "legitimate government" who "asked" for help after tiny Finland agressively attacked USSR just as our army was peacefully massed on their previous border in attack formation.
— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) November 30, 2022
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
I held another meeting of the Staff today.
The main issues are the Donetsk region, Luhansk region, Kharkiv region, Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson region, Crimea, frontline territories and our state border. We are analyzing the intentions of the occupiers and are preparing a countermeasure – an even more powerful countermeasure than now.
We considered the issue of providing for the military and supplying new equipment and ammunition.
I separately held a meeting on energy and communication issues. We record the results of what has already been done to protect our systems. We are preparing new solutions.
We are also preparing new solutions to prevent any opportunity for Russia to manipulate the internal life of Ukraine. We will provide details in due time.
As of this evening, about 6 million subscribers in most regions of our country and in Kyiv are disconnected from electricity.
The situation remains very difficult in the capital, as well as in the Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Lviv, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi and Cherkasy regions.
Energy workers and utility workers, all our services are doing everything to stabilize the system and give people more energy for longer. And I want to emphasize once again: it is very important that people understand when and for what period of time they will be left without electricity.
This is the responsibility of both the energy companies themselves and local authorities. People have a right to know. And to the extent that it is possible now, the predictability of life should be ensured. People see that in neighboring houses or on nearby streets, for some reason, the rules regarding light are different. And there should be justice and clarity.
Today we have two very important pieces of international news.
Canada has successfully completed the issuance of special bonds – bonds of sovereign support of Ukraine. The volume is 500 million Canadian dollars.
In fact, Canada assumes this debt to help our nation. The funds will go to the state budget of Ukraine.
I am grateful to our Canadian friends and personally to Mr. Justin Trudeau and Mrs. Chrystia Freeland for this manifestation of Canadian leadership.
Leadership that demonstrates to other partners what can be effective right now to support Ukraine.
And news from Germany.
The Bundestag voted for a resolution recognizing the Holodomor as genocide of the Ukrainian people. This is a decision for justice, for truth. And this is a very important signal to many other countries of the world that Russian revanchism will not succeed in rewriting history.
We would praise one more decision of Germany, which will certainly become historic, – to transfer the Patriot system to Ukraine. All generations of Ukrainians will thank Chancellor Scholz, as well as the entire generation of modern German politicians.
Glory to everyone who defends Ukraine!
Gratitude to everyone who helps our state!
Glory to Ukraine!
I just want to highlight this part:
And news from Germany.
The Bundestag voted for a resolution recognizing the Holodomor as genocide of the Ukrainian people. This is a decision for justice, for truth. And this is a very important signal to many other countries of the world that Russian revanchism will not succeed in rewriting history.
We would praise one more decision of Germany, which will certainly become historic, – to transfer the Patriot system to Ukraine. All generations of Ukrainians will thank Chancellor Scholz, as well as the entire generation of modern German politicians.
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:
BAKHMUT/1500 UTC 30 NOV/ RU forces have taken the village of Andrivka and are attempting a lodgment on the a W bank of Bakhmutka River. RU conducted multiple close air support sorties in support of this assault. In the north, RU forces were held on the T-13-02 HWY. pic.twitter.com/OtbANjkWdE
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 30, 2022
More air defense is on the way!
⚡️The Pentagon will provide the American firm Raytheon Technologies with a $1.2 billion contract for six advanced NASAMS air defense missile systems that will be delivered to Ukraine.
🔗https://t.co/I12Bp4fGVi pic.twitter.com/pjuq7MbPZA
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) November 30, 2022
Here’s the tech specs:
DEFENDER OF CITIES: NASAMS (National/Norwegian Advanced Surface to Air Missile System) is a distributed and networked medium-to-long range surface-to-air missile defense complex. It will be used to defend UKR cities for RU missile attacks. https://t.co/Bw828VE4IS pic.twitter.com/mKyx8FkqY6
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 1, 2022
I’ve been wondering if Russian assets or pro-Russian extremists within the EU, let alone the US, would begin to use terrorism as Russia continues to lose. While we don’t know who the perpetrators are yet, we don’t have to wonder anymore if the terrorism would begin.
Envelope*
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 30, 2022
The Spanish company that manufactured the grenade launchers that Spain sent at the beginning of the war to support the Ukrainian army also reportedly was sent a letter bomb. https://t.co/0nKY0SfOHJ
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 30, 2022
Putin’s other puppet:
Ukraine's security service, the SBU, searched the properties of Yevhen Murayev, the pro-Kremlin Ukrainian ex-MP who Russia apparently wanted to lead its puppet govt in Kyiv, and seized cash, weapons, computer equipment, phones, and more. The SBU says Murayev is hiding abroad. https://t.co/NdbPcx8M4c
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 30, 2022
Despite G&T spoiling the surprise – I was saving the reporting below for tonight’s post – here is the New Voice of Ukraine‘s reporting on how Ukrainian Special Operations went after the Russians who attacked the maternity hospital and killed two day old Serhiyko:
The Ukrainian military has “demolished” the Russian unit behind the deadly missile strike on a maternity ward in Vilniansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, regional governor Oleksandr Starukh said during a briefing on Nov. 28.
“A rocket artillery unit that shelled the maternity ward with S-300 missiles was reportedly demolished (by Ukrainian forces) hitting the enemy’s positions along the frontline,” Starukh said.
Staruch also reported about attacks on Russian positions near Melitopol and Tokmak, adding that guerrilla movement is particularly effective in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
More at the link.
Finally, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has released a new report delineating the preliminary lessons that can be learned from the first part of Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s re-invasion. One of the authors is Ukrainian LTG Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi. Here is the executive summary:
Executive Summary
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has provided an invaluable opportunity to assess the capabilities of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) and the implications of a range of capabilities for modern warfare. Many publicly made judgements on these issues have lacked supporting data or insight into Ukrainian operational planning and decision-making. To ensure that those drawing lessons from the conflict do so from a solid foundation, this report seeks to outline key lessons, based on the operational data accumulated by the Ukrainian General Staff, from the fighting between February and July 2022. As the underlying source material for much of this report cannot yet be made public, this should be understood as testimony rather than as an academic study. Given the requirements for operational security, it is necessarily incomplete.Russia planned to invade Ukraine over a 10-day period and thereafter occupy the country to enable annexation by August 2022. The Russian plan presupposed that speed, and the use of deception to keep Ukrainian forces away from Kyiv, could enable the rapid seizure of the capital. The Russian deception plan largely succeeded, and the Russians achieved a 12:1 force ratio advantage north of Kyiv. The very operational security that enabled the successful deception, however, also led Russian forces to be unprepared at the tactical level to execute the plan effectively. The Russian plan’s greatest deficiency was the lack of reversionary courses of action. As a result, when speed failed to produce the desired results, Russian forces found their positions steadily degraded as Ukraine mobilised. Despite these setbacks, Russia refocused on Donbas and, since Ukraine had largely expended its ammunition supply, proved successful in subsequent operations, slowed by the determination – rather than the capabilities – of Ukrainian troops. From April, the West became Ukraine’s strategic depth, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) only robbed Russia of the initiative once long-range fires brought Russian logistics under threat.
The tactical competence of the Russian military proved significantly inferior compared with the expectations of many observers based within and outside Ukraine and Russia. Nevertheless, Russian weapons systems proved largely effective, and those units with a higher level of experience demonstrated that the AFRF have considerable military potential, even if deficiencies in training and the context of how they were employed meant that the Russian military failed to meet that potential. Factoring in the idiosyncrasies of the Russian campaign, there are five key areas that should be monitored to judge whether the Russian military is making progress in resolving its structural and cultural deficiencies. These areas should be used to inform assessments of Russian combat power in the future.
The AFRF currently operate with a hierarchy of jointery in which the priorities of the land component are paramount, and the military as a whole is subordinate to the special services. This creates sub-optimal employment of other branches.
The AFRF force-generation model is flawed. It proposes the creation of amalgamated combined arms formations in wartime but lacks the strength of junior leadership to knit these units together.
There is a culture of reinforcing failure unless orders are changed at higher levels. This appears less evident in the Russian Aerospace Forces than in the Ground Forces and Navy.
The AFRF are culturally vulnerable to deception because they lack the ability to rapidly fuse information, are culturally averse to providing those who are executing orders with the context to exercise judgement, and incentivise a dishonest reporting culture.
The AFRF’s capabilities and formations are prone to fratricide. Electronic warfare (EW) systems and other capabilities rarely deconflict, while processes for identifying friend from foe and establishing control measures are inadequate. The result is that capabilities that should magnify one another’s effects must be employed sequentially.
Beyond assessments of the Russian armed forces, there are significant lessons to be drawn from the conflict for the British and other NATO militaries. The foremost of these are:
In due course, it will be possible to extend this study to cover the later phase of the war when Ukraine moved on to offensive operations. As the UAF expend significant ammunition, however, and now depend on their international partners for equipment, it is important that those partners draw the appropriate lessons from the war so far, not least so that they can prepare themselves to deter future threats and to best support Ukraine. Ukraine’s victory is possible, but it requires significant heavy fighting. With appropriate support, Ukraine can prevail.
There is no sanctuary in modern warfare. The enemy can strike throughout operational depth. Survivability depends on dispersing ammunitions stocks, command and control, maintenance areas and aircraft. Ukraine successfully evaded Russia’s initial wave of strikes by dispersing its arsenals, aircraft and air defences. Conversely, the Russians succeeded in engaging 75% of static defence sites in the first 48 hours of the war. Nor is setting up a headquarters in a civilian building sufficient to make it survivable. The British Army must consider the vulnerability of higher-echelon enablement. The RAF must consider how many deployable spares kits it has to enable dispersion of its fleets.
Warfighting demands large initial stockpiles and significant slack capacity. Despite the prominence of anti-tank guided weapons in the public narrative, Ukraine blunted Russia’s attempt to seize Kyiv using massed fires from two artillery brigades. The difference in numbers between Russian and Ukrainian artillery was not as significant at the beginning of the conflict, with just over a 2:1 advantage: 2,433 barrel artillery systems against 1,176; and 3,547 multiple-launch rocket systems against 1,680. Ukraine maintained artillery parity for the first month and a half and then began to run low on munitions so that, by June, the AFRF had a 10:1 advantage in volume of fire. Evidently, no country in NATO, other than the US, has sufficient initial weapons stocks for warfighting or the industrial capacity to sustain largescale operations. This must be rectified if deterrence is to be credible and is equally a problem for the RAF and Royal Navy.
Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and counter-UAS (CUAS) are essential across all branches and at all echelons. Although critical to competitiveness by providing situational awareness, 90% of UAS employed are lost. For the most part, UAS must be cheap and attritable. For land forces, they must be organic to units for the purposes of both situational awareness and target acquisition. The primary means of CUAS is EW. Another critical tactical requirement is to be alerted to the presence of UAS. For the Royal Navy, CUAS is critical for protecting vessels operating beyond the protection of a task force. For the RAF, the provision of look-down sensing to locate UAS to contribute to air defence is critical. This allows defensive resources to be prioritised on the right axes.
The force must fight for the right to precision. Precision is not only vastly more efficient in the effects it delivers but also allows the force to reduce its logistics tail and thereby makes it more survivable. Precision weapons, however, are scarce and can be defeated by EW. To enable kill chains to function at the speed of relevance, EW for attack, protection and direction finding is a critical element of modern combined arms operations. Sequencing fires to disrupt EW and create windows of opportunity for precision effects is critical and creates training requirements. In modern warfare, the electromagnetic spectrum is unlikely to be denied, but it is continually disrupted, and forces must endeavour to gain advantage within it.
For land forces, the pervasive ISTAR on the modern battlefield and the layering of multiple sensors at the tactical level make concealment exceedingly difficult to sustain. Survivability is often afforded by being sufficiently dispersed to become an uneconomical target, by moving quickly enough to disrupt the enemy’s kill chain and thereby evade engagement, or by entering hardened structures. Shell scrapes and hasty defences can increase immediate survivability but also risk the force becoming fixed by fire while precision fires and specialist munitions do not leave these positions survivable. Forces instead should prioritise concentrating effects while only concentrating mass under favourable conditions – with an ability to offer mutual support beyond line of sight – and should give precedence to mobility as a critical component of their survivability.
And here is the link to the full report. It is a pdf.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There’s still no new Patron tweets tonight, but that’s because he’s busy doing the laundry! A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns
Don’t worry frens! I’ll save you!!!!
And finally, finally because the anticipated bombardment has still not happened:
Open thread!
Anonymous At Work
Thanks for the 9+ months of updates. May you stop tomorrow for the good reason (although I expect it won’t happen)!
I’m puzzling over Bakhmut and the seeming Russian strategy of making Ukraine run out of bullets. Is it about Bakhmut for some strategic reason at this point, is it just the sharpest fighting involving mobniks, or is it a demonstration by Putin of “I’ll buy a 1000 draftees for every foot of ground until I control everything”? Having trouble understanding the plan.
HinTN
That Brit report is VERY interesting and pertinent reading. Thanks, as always, Adam for the sustained effort to keep us informed.
cain
There seems to be reporting that labor groups are quite unhappy – of course rose twitter is always angry. While I understand that destroying the economy as this strike might do – it seems we are needlessly giving industry the upper hand. I look forward to the Dems putting out better messaging.
Interestingly though the DC Press don’t seem to have a belligerent stance in regards to this. Shows where they are.
The Moar You Know
This jumped out at me. It is a state of affairs that cannot be allowed to continue.
Miss Bianca
Wow, I can’t believe I’m actually seeing one of your posts in real time, Adam! Adding my thanks for all the work you put into them. Still digesting the army report, so I don’t have anything pertinent or useful to observe, just waving “hi” from the mountains…
Alison Rose
I presume this would be difficult to prove, but if an investigation can find out who made/sent the letter bomb to the embassy, and it was indeed either russians or someone working for them or whatever…how would that act be viewed as far as aggression against another nation? Yes, it was Ukraine’s embassy, but it was located within Madrid. I’ve heard there are odd Narnia-like rules about embassies, but I don’t have any actually knowledge myself. How would Spain’s government possibly view/react to such a thing, if it could be definitively proven to be russian fuckery?
I am glad about the NASAMS. I trust the Ukrainians to put them to excellent use.
Why does foreign money often look like play money to me? I feel like those bills came from a russian version of Monopoly. Which would be a very depressing version. (I say this as someone who loves Monopoly and has multiple versions even though I live alone and don’t have visitors and have not yet taught my cat how to play.)
Thank you as always, Adam. Hopefully we will get good booms very soon.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: It’s been a long and uncomfortable week – I tweaked my psoaz doing a full body strength training set the other day – so I may be remembering wrong, but my understanding is that Bakhmut is strategically located in terms of logistics. So if the Ukrainians can push the Russians out, it makes it even harder for the Russians to resupply. It is also now strategically important to Prigozhin’s interests. He needs a clear win to demonstrate he and his private army can succeed where Putin and the Russian army can’t.
Adam L Silverman
@Miss Bianca: You live two time zones behind me. How have you not been seeing them in real time?
dr. luba
Patron:
Today I will tell you how I launder my things.
I always remember exactly what I put into the washing machine.
Later I will tell you why this is necessary.
Then I carefully check the hermetic seal of this round thing.
The next 1.5 to 2 hours I carefully follow/watch the process.
I need to make sure that the washing machine doesn’t steal anything, so I keep my eyes peeled to it.
(Because it has stolen from everyone: here a sock, there something else.)
Benefit from my lifehacks, and may your socks never again vanish!
Sister Golden Bear
For those who didn’t get the “no boom today” reference, here’s the obligatory Babylon 5 clip.
Gin & Tonic
Oopsie. Sorry for the spoiler. But a correction: little Serhiy, the baby killed by the S-300, was two days old, not two years.
Adam L Silverman
@Sister Golden Bear: it’s the last thing in the post.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: Other countries have attractive and sometimes artistic currency, not like the US.
Sister Golden Bear
@Sister Golden Bear: Oops. Missed Adam’s clip in the main post.
Poe Larity
I’m thinking turning Ukraine into a profit center may not be the best strategery,
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: This is true, some of them do have prettier money than ours. I wish ours had a little more variety, for sure.
Anonymous At Work
@The Moar You Know: Why? No *single* country in NATO has the capacity to conduct a large-scale war on its own using only its own industrial base? Isn’t that a good thing?
KCSteve
How is the RU using a surface to air missile system (S-300) to shell a ground target? They haven’t impressed me as being that resourceful. Was this just a case of what goes up must come down?
Sister Golden Bear
@KCSteve: If you don’t care what you’re hitting, what goes up must come down works fine.
Miss Bianca
@Adam L Silverman: busy at night? Besides, the Patron Tiktok videos do something weird to my browser, so I usually have to wait to read your posts till I am on my phone, rather than my laptop.
NutmegAgain
@Alison Rose: Regarding money & play money… No worries! American bills look like funny money to people from other places, like in the EU, where different denominations are different colors, sometimes sizes. I’ve been asked many times why American money is so darned confusing
whoops, I see Gin & Tonic beat me to it
Omnes Omnibus
Tell them to just be happy we use a decimal system with our currency.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Fixed.
Mallard Filmore
@Omnes Omnibus:
But our coins are marked with WORDS, not numbers. What value is “Twenty Five Cents” to someone that does not know English, or even our alphabet?
Adam L Silverman
@Sister Golden Bear: Likely story…
Adam L Silverman
@KCSteve: They’ve been using them as a supplement as their supply runs low. They can be used this way, but not particularly effectively because it’s not what it is designed for.
Omnes Omnibus
I’d say it’s about a quarter of a dollar.
Another Scott
@Alison Rose: Maybe I’m not understanding, but those “100” bills in the SW quadrant picture/picture #3 are US $100 bills (reverse).
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@Omnes Omnibus: So why do coins go 1-5-10-25-50-100 while bills go 1-5-10-20-50-100?
Carlo Graziani
God, I love that Slim Pickens clip. “A-WhUne-Hundred Dollars in Roobles…A-WhUne-Hundred Dollars in Gold…Nahne packs of chewing gum…A-Whune issue of pro-pha-lactics…three lipsticks…three pair of naalon stockings…”
NotMax
FYI.
bookworm1398
@Mallard Filmore:
What I do in foreign countries is hand over a handful of coins and let the recipient figure out how much to keep – it would take me forever to examine each coin and check the value.
Chetan Murthy
@Anonymous At Work: @The Moar You Know: I think Anonymous is correct, but …. thought I’d add some background: the US has engineered this situation: where our allies cannot conduct war without our involvement. This was done specifically to prevent the recurrence of a war on the European continent among countries otherwise friendly to the US. B/c boy howdy it worked out so great the first two time, eh? In a way the US did the same thing in the Far East, though there I’m really going on conjecture: certainly Japan and South Korea don’t have a lotta love, and we’ve been keeping them allies with our efforts.
There’s an argument to be made that this is all in service of our global hegemony: if Europe cannot mount expeditionary forces without our help, they’re fundamentally tied to us. The counter-argument is that if we go Fascist, Europe needs to be able to stand on their own.
But it’s worth considering that (as Brad Delong put it) the security architecture we put in place, has borne great fruit: whereas between 111BCE and 1945CE an army crossed the Rhine to wreak havoc every 37 years on average, since 1945, we’ve had *two* cycles with no army crossing the Rhine. It’s worth thinking of the value of that architecture, before start dismantling it.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic: Dude, does it make more sense than our distance or volume measurements? Yes, it does. That’s all I am saying.
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: You missed the $2 bill (Jefferson).
And if you want, you can get $100 US coins, but it’ll cost you much more than that.
$2 coins were very handy when I visited Canada in the olden days (before soft drink machines were on the internet).
I assume that all paper and metal money will be obsolete in a few decades, maybe sooner.
Cheers,
Scott.
Origuy
Slim Pickens’ original line in the movie was “A fella could have a pretty good weekend in Dallas”, but before the movie was released, JFK was assassinated in Dallas. They had to call him back in and re-record the line.
Carlo Graziani
@Alison Rose: Possibly booms soon. Temperatures in the east have dropped below freezing, and not a +32F in the forecast until December 9.
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: People in Ukraine like US $100’s, but they have to be fresh, clean, unwrinkled, preferably never used.
Carlo Graziani
@Origuy: I didn’t know that. Vegas works better IMO, though. Who goes to Dallas for a good time?
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: I skipped the $2 bill because it was orthogonal to my argument.
And, yeah, the US is a laggard in many banking/finance areas. A couple of years ago I was in Stockholm for five days, and I still have no idea what physical currency they might use, as I never had a need to get any. The most popular coffee chain in Sweden, as ubiquitous as Starbucks in the US, has a strict no-cash policy.
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani: Ever spend time at Fort Sill? Dallas is close enough for a weekend and much more fun than Lawton.
CaseyL
@Alison Rose: @NutmegAgain:
I’ve done a little international travel, and have had the pleasure and privilege to twice be abroad for a month. Each of those times, when I came back to the US, two very funny things happened:
1. I automatically tried to calculate how much the US money in my hand was worth locally, and had to do a little mental stutter-step to remember the US money was the local currency; and
2. US money looked drab to me, as I’d gotten used to currencies-of-many-colors.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: People all over the world like US $100 bills. They’re one of our most popular exports — $65B in 2019, and they cost us little more than their weight in toilet paper to produce. Good store of value in parts of the world where people don’t trust their banks.
Sister Golden Bear
@Adam L Silverman: I blame Safari for taking forever to load embedded bits of the page.
Carlo Graziani
Hey, apropos of nothing. I love spending my evenings with you guys. Just sayin’.
ETA: And it’s not the shot of Knob Creek talking, either.
Bill Arnold
@Gin & Tonic:
They go One Cent, Five Cents, One Dime, Quarter Dollar, Half Dollar, $1
Worse than I thought, TBH.
JimBob
@Gin & Tonic: oops never mind.
Grumpy Old Railroader
The railroad industry is unique in that we have our very own act of congress called The Railway Labor Act (RLA) of 1926. The entire purpose of the RLA is to slow the entire process of a labor dispute to where reaching the point we are at today has taken 3 plus years. The RLA has 3 parties to any dispute, Labor, Railroads and the U.S. Government. What you see happening in Congress is actually set forth in the RLA. If the two parties reach an impasse, the government steps in. Wee saw another piece of that when POTUS appointed the Presidential Emergency Board last month.
So no, this does not give industry the upper hand. The RLA prevents industry from being a bad actor in negotiations because railroads can’t predict if Congress will make things better or worse for them. There is no doubt in my mind that if GOP was in charge of Congress and POTUS, the unions would acquiesced to an inferior contract months ago for fear of a GOP Congress intervening.
Layer8Problem
@Carlo Graziani: Maybe Terry Southern, who worked on the screenplay. He was from a town outside of Dallas.
Feathers
That Patron video brings back memories of my kid sister sobbing alongside the washing machine when my mother decided her sock monkey needed cleaning.
@Carlo Graziani: And the Republicans want to blow up the huge blessing the US has of being the world’s fiat currency for shits and giggles.
@Omnes Omnibus: One of my fun memories is explaining the value of the various US coins to newly arrived Harvard Business School students at a coffee shop in Harvard Square.
@Chetan Murthy: It’s always interesting when people start talking about colonialism without talking first about European history. The violence predates the colonies.
Captain C
@Anonymous At Work:
I’m wondering if at least a side motivation is also to just get rid of the volunteered convicts. If they’re killed storming a fortified position, especially with inadequate gear and training (no sense wasting good sellable equipment on cannon fodder), then they don’t have to be cared for (yes, that phrase is doing a lot of work here) in state or state-sponsored facilities.
Captain C
@KCSteve:
More expensive V-2s or Scuds if the V-2s or Scuds were originally designed as anti-air systems. Perhaps it’s what they’ve got? The terror seems at least part of the purpose, so accuracy may not matter too much. Seems a sadistic and unproductive thing to do.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Which labor groups? My understanding is 8 of the 12 unions concerned approved the deal.
Burnspbesq
@Carlo Graziani:
The tragically misinformed.
cain
@Grumpy Old Railroader: Thanks for the explanation – I think a lot of folks are unhappy at Biden as he seemingly seems to want to coerce the union to taking a deal that doesn’t include sick pay – the house made a separate bill that includes it and some folks (mostly leftists) are angry that it was separate instead of forcing everyone to accept it as an omnibus.
Carlo Graziani
@Captain C: There simply isn’t a unified Russian national strategy guiding the war. Different power centers are driving different local operations that are globally incoherent, cannot mutually reinforce each other, and compete for logistical resources.
The Bakhmut drive is Prigozhin’s showcase for the value that Wagner PMC adds to the Russian war effort. The fact that it is strategically worthless to any sane conception of the current Russian campaign is neither here nor there in the alternate reality where Prigozhin spends the credibility tokens that he acquires by the blood spilled in those trenches.
The Donetsk drive represents a completely separate and not mutually supporting operation by the regular ground forces. It is also stupid. The motivation for this one is to deliver on Putin’s original promise to “liberate” and annex Donetsk oblast to Russia, in addition to Luhansk. It is believed that Surovkin managed to get agreement to withdrawal from Kherson in exchange for promising to complete this unfinished business from the original objectives of the invasion plan.
Then there is the still very much active Kherson-Zaporizhzhia battlefield, that the Russians would like to turn into some kind of defensive rampart so that they can dedicate offensive resources to Donetsk, but the UA keeps engaging them, so they keep having to turn to the “fighting retreat” section of their field manual, and possibly that wasn’t part of the latest edition because they don’t seem to be very good at it, if the SOF is conducting mortar strikes in their rear areas.
And then there’s Kharkiv oblast, and all the back-and-forth around Svatove-Kreminna, which the Russians should be fucking panicking about, instead of screwing around in Bakhmut. Because they could totally lose the war in the east here, if the UA cuts that last rail line from Belgorod to Starobilsk that is supplying that cretin Prigozhin’s effort. But this area is defended by whatever is left over from the other three theatres, because that’s how STAVKA rolls.
Really, in a way, the Ukrainians are blessed in their choice of enemy.
Another Scott
@Grumpy Old Railroader: Speaking of work…
Thread.
Interesting.
100% of the pay / 80% of the previous work hours / 100% of the productivity
It seems to work.
Maybe we should make the MotUs in the USA try to argue against it. ;-)
(via jonrog1)
Cheers,
Scott.
(“Who really, really enjoys 3-day weekends.”)
Cameron
@cain: I’m pretty sure Nancy Pelosi knew the sick-day bill wouldn’t make it through the Senate. What it would have the effect of doing, if brought to a vote there, would be to shut up the fake populist babblings of Lil Marco and the Missouri Strider, who were pretending to have deep concern for the welfare of RR workers.
Jay
@Anonymous At Work:
@Captain C:
a former Russian convict, living in Turkey, has publically claimed that when Prigozhin was in prison, he was the lowest rank of convict, and served as a “receptical” for more connected, more powerful, higher ranked convicts attentions.
So maybe there is that.
Wagner has staked it’s military reputation on Bakhmut, “achieving” what the AFRU could not do, thus being “better” and being more “valuable” than the AFRU. As noted in Adam’s excerpt and the PDF, the Organization of the AFRU has seen the various Special Forces elevated, (pay, promotion, command, perks, weapons systems, training) above the rest of the AFRU. By “winning” in Bakhmut, no matter the cost, in theory, Wagner would “become” higher “ranked” than the AFRU, even the “Special Forces” with all the grift that comes with it.
For Prigozhin, with the failure of the “Grand Plan” of a 10 day war, a 8 month Annexation, the various Orc’s of the various “Commands” are maneuvering for rank, power and status. See above.
Feathers
@cain: What is needed is a rule that contracts which allow employers to require workers to remain working after their shift has ended, or come to work with no notice – those workers must be paid triple time when these clauses are invoked. There should be a fine as well, but I’m feeling generous.
It’s nasty because hospitals, rail roads and other essential services need their minimum staff there at all times. But they are being allowed to cut staffing levels below what is required to actually have that many bodies on the job at any given time. All sorts of businesses are doing it, needs to stop and it won’t until the law changes.
kalakal
@Omnes Omnibus: We should indeed be grateful for decimal currency. In the UK when I was a kid it was 12 Pence in a Shilling & 20 Shillings in a Pound, 21 Shillings in a Guinea. The coinage was lsd: l = £, s= shillings, d= pence . The coins were farthing, halfpenny, penny, threepence, sixpence, shilling, half-crown, crown ( 5 shillings). Just to be helpful they had nick names, a tanner = 6d, a bob = 1s, thrupenny = 3d. £s then and now are known as quid. So you had a 10 bob note, a 5 quid note etc.
Omnes Omnibus
@kalakal: The first time I was in the UK, decimalization had happened, but shilling and half shilling coins were still in circulation. They were just in drag as as ten and five pence coins.
Carlo Graziani
@kalakal: I recall finding this the most inscrutable part of English literature. Any discussion of money might as well have been cryptographic. And yet the most disturbing thing was that all the characters seemed to regard it as perfectly simple and natural.
Urban Suburbanite
The Popular Front podcast had a pretty interesting interview on some Russian anarchists who have been sabotaging trains and torching recruiting offices.
I don’t know if this has been brought up yet, but it looks like there’s the start of a campaign to discredit Prigozhin. There’s a video circulating on Twitter (and probably a bunch of insane Russian telegram channels) with a Russian convict claiming he did time with Prigozhin, and that Prigozhin was the absolute lowest of the Russian prison system (it’s even more homophobic than you think). I don’t know if it’s true or not, but it really doesn’t matter. The point is to damage a potential rival.
way2blue
@Bill Arnold: nickel, dime, two bits
Chetan Murthy
@way2blue: sawbuck
way2blue
@kalakal:
Love it! [What about the pound sterling? That one always had me wondering… ]
Yutsano
@Feathers:
You’re not really wrong here. But their side doesn’t do fun. At least for its own sake.
EDIT: FYWP.
way2blue
@Chetan Murthy:
Had to look that one up. Also c-note.
kalakal
@Omnes Omnibus: Yep, basically that’s how people handled it.
@Carlo Graziani: weirdly it was actually quite easy. I liked the old coins, they were very distinctive, but much prefer the decimal system. I also grew up with the old imperial measures eg stones, hundredweights, pints & degrees fahrenheit, I much prefer SI units. People moaned like crazy about the change and there are still nutters who want the old units back, ” metric martyrs” according to the Sun. There’s even pledges by Brexiteers to do so. They’re imbeciles, they can’t even handle decimals
kalakal
@way2blue: That ones a doozey. There were Saxon silver coins called sterlings. You got 240 of them from a pound ( weight) of silver so…
NotMax
@Chetan Murthy
Also fin. And double sawbuck.
glc
@Bill Arnold: At least we do have the dime. It took a while.
The system of decimal fractions was introduced into Europe by Simon Stevin (his introduction says that it’s a great system and we should convert all our measures to it). Check out the title:
I.e. a tithe, paid to the church (originally, in goods). From a public relations standpoint it doesn’t seem like the best way to introduce it.
Viva BrisVegas
@Carlo Graziani:
Same from the other side when you guys talk about gallons, miles and ounces.
cain
@Feathers: I actually believe nationalizing the railways should be an option. It is critical infrastructure for us and if industry can’t cut it then we need to jump in.
Chetan Murthy
@Viva BrisVegas: Two thoughts:
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Alison Rose:
One of the interesting details about euro banknotes: the bills increase in size as the printed value increases, making it easier for people with vision issues to select the bill they want for a transaction, or to check their change.
Of course, this means cash drawer sections have to be sized for that. The American method of same-sized bills is harder for the vision-impaired but at least the cash drawers are uniform.
Tim Ellis
@a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio): Canadian bills are the same size as well, but they are different colour and have raised divots for brail, to help those who are visually impaired.
They are also plastic now, which I don’t love lol
Tim Ellis
The government here just announced the Ukraine bond program last week; I made a mental note of it and I’ll probably pick some up.
Canada has its political foibles but it’s gratifying that all three major federal parties are aligned on Ukraine support. And our deputy PM is herself Ukrainian. I expect we will continue with steady support for the duration.
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/financial-sector-policy/ukraine-sovereignty-bond.html
Enhanced Voting Techniques
And a pretty absurd use of an anti aircraft weapon. War is nothing but horror and cruelty, but this shit is so utterly pointless. Russia is pretty much the kakistocracy that Trump and the rest of our fail sons dream of.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Jay: I’ve heard claims that this is part of Prigozhin’s play to be Putin’s successor.
bjacques
@NotMax: a buck two forty, but thanks to inflation, now a buck two eighty.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@The Moar You Know: Exactly how does one plan for a war with countries lead by idiots who are more like characters from a badly written parody movie of the life of Kaiser William III?
Normally, peer to peer wars between major powers don’t happen or are quickly ended because of nuclear weapons. Kissinger’s fear that the longer this war goes, the greater the danger of a nuclear exchange is is legitimate, even if he is to far out of touch now to understand that negotiations are impossible until the Russian leadership puts down the bong and returns to reality.
Geoduck
@Gin & Tonic: I try not be a conspiracist-luddite, but I don’t like the idea that every single one of my commercial transactions can be tracked. I hope we keep paper money around.
Totally can get rid of pennies and replace dollar bills with coins.
Chetan Murthy
@Geoduck: wait’ll you find out what’s in your pocket!
Ivan X
@Mallard Filmore: The better one is “One Dime”.
Ruckus
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Current Russian “leadership” is in far worse shape than anything taken by bong can bring. The PTB in Russia are in the graces of grift. They grift every penny they have off the backs of most of the Russian citizens and at some point those citizens are going to realize that all the oligarchs are grifting every last one of them for everything they’ve got. And given that the oligarchs know that they have been ripping off the citizens of Russia, they will try to not allow any such info to reach the general population of Russia. But if it were to do so I’d bet a lot of the citizens would not be amused.
Ivan X
@Gin & Tonic: $2 bills are also still made, just not widely used. (And there used to be $500, $1,000, $5,000, and $10,000, but those have been discontinued.)
Chetan Murthy
@Ruckus: Idunno, Ruckus. From what I’ve read, most of the extractive industries that the grifters live on, don’t need a ton of people, and most of the tech comes from foreign companies. Heck, the grifters prefer it that way, b/c it means few natives to pay (who could, y’know, demand changes, etc). Kamil Galeev had a great thread that explained all this: that the more basic an industry, the more the grifters like it, b/c the technically complex ones (like, say, building tractors (FFS!)) require local industrial bases and expertise. And …. that’s harder to control.
The upshot being: the only reason Russia needs bodies, is for the military. For the economy …. not so much.
Central Planning
@bjacques: “A buck three eighty won’t buy you much lately on the streets these days.”
Frankensteinbeck
@Ruckus:
They know. They’ve always known. It has always been that way. One of Putin’s biggest internal propaganda efforts is making sure Russians believe it’s just as bad everywhere. Russians think it’s just how life is, and the corruption goes all the way down as well as all the way up. It has bizarre side effects like accident insurance fraud being an entire industry.
Andrya
@Ivan X: A former employer of mine gave us a small bonus each quarter in $2 bills- this was supposed to increase safety-conscious thinking. (If there was a lost-time injury on the job, we didn’t get the bonus.) They were a real pain to spend- cashiers did not want them, and one jumped to the conclusion that (since she had never heard of $2 bills) that I must be an extremely incompetent counterfeiter.
@Frankensteinbeck: Your comment is spot on, and I suspect is one of the reasons for the invasion. Given the cultural ties between Ukraine and russia, the russian establishment could not afford to have Ukraine get on a path to non-corruption and an economy modeled on western Europe. People would start asking “why can’t we have that?”
Geminid
@Andrya: Last time I went to Monticello, on the small mountain overlooking Charlottesville, Virginia, the admission fee was $8, and I got a two dollar bill in my change. It had a picture of Thomas Jefferson on it and was a kind of souvenir of my visit. That was over twenty years ago but I think they still do this.
Chris T.
Whoa, we don’t want that kind of personal information, keep your twerking to yourself! 😆
Seriously though, it’s the “psoas” (I’m assuming psoas major which is the more likely to strain anyway). Can be pretty painful, depending. I’ve injured many a muscle in that general region myself. Take it easy!