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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 281: Independence Referendum Day

War for Ukraine Day 281: Independence Referendum Day

by Adam L Silverman|  December 1, 20228:54 pm| 47 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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Today is the 31st anniversary of Ukraine’s vote to regain retain its independence. The vote was not close.

31 years ago today, Ukraine voted to renew its independence. A landslide majority of voters (90.32%) voted Yes.
This is how our centuries-old nation finally got a chance to regain its statehood.
This is how modern Ukraine was born.
It’s our solemn duty to protect it. pic.twitter.com/p4UaXxdCYM

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 1, 2022

Here is President Zelenskyy’s Independence Day anniversary address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Free people of the indomitable country!

Every year on December 1, we recall an event that defined history. An event that said a lot about all of us, about Ukrainians. About who we are. And about who we will never become.

On December 1, 31 years ago, a referendum was held that united the entire territory of our state. None of our people remained outside the All-Ukrainian decision. Kyiv and Sevastopol, Odesa and Crimea, Lviv and Cherkasy, Chernihiv and Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk, Khmelnytskyi and Kirovohrad regions, Volyn and Dnipropetrovsk regions, Sumy and Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil, Zhytomyr region and Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia, Kyiv region, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Rivne… Everyone expressed their support.

People confirmed the Act of Proclamation of Independence of Ukraine – freely and legally. It was a real referendum, not some kind of imitation. It was an honest referendum, and that is why it was recognized by the world.

And it was important that not just politicians, but people in particular put an end to the history of the empire, which was built on denying the will of the people. Which killed, trying to perpetuate the denial of the will of the people, but which was overthrown by people anyway. And precisely by their own will.

Since that day in 1991, Ukrainians have experienced many attempts to turn a dot into three dots or a semicolon. We saw many figures who could not put up with the fact that the empire had been overthrown.

We are still defending Ukraine against such “comrades” who wanted to celebrate the centenary of the empire this year instead of another anniversary of freedom. They wanted…

But Ukrainian rules will prevail.

Our desire to live freely expressed on August 24 and confirmed on December 1 will not be broken. Ukrainians will never again be gears of some empires. We have already gained it and we will ensure the full independence of our state.

We will ensure, in particular, spiritual independence. We will never allow anyone to build an empire inside the Ukrainian soul.

A meeting of the National Security and Defense Council was held today. The meeting at which we considered numerous facts of connections of certain religious circles in Ukraine with the aggressor state.

Unfortunately, even Russian terror and full-scale war did not convince some figures that it is worth overcoming the temptation of evil. Well, we have to create conditions where no actors dependent on the aggressor state will have an opportunity to manipulate Ukrainians and weaken Ukraine from within.

So, first. The National Security and Defense Council instructed the Government to submit to the Verkhovna Rada a draft law on making it impossible for religious organizations affiliated with centers of influence in the Russian Federation to operate in Ukraine.

Second. The State Service for Ethnopolitics and Freedom of Conscience was commissioned to ensure the religious examination of the Management Statute of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church for the presence of a church-canonical connection with the Moscow Patriarchate and, if necessary, to take measures provided for by law.

Third. Ensure the verification of the presence of legal grounds and compliance with the conditions of use by religious organizations of the property located on the territory of the National Kyiv-Pechersk Historical and Cultural Reserve.

Fourth. All bodies responsible for ensuring national security must intensify measures to identify and counter the subversive activities of Russian special services in the religious environment of Ukraine. And apply personal sanctions – the surnames will be made public soon.

And fifth. We need to raise the status and strengthen the capabilities of the State Service for Ethnopolitics and Freedom of Conscience. This structure will be reformed, which will enable it to really protect the rights and legitimate interests of the Ukrainians and the state.

With these and other decisions, we guarantee Ukraine’s spiritual independence.

I would like to emphasize: in 1991, our state embarked on the legal and democratic path. We will continue this path. Only legal steps. Balanced decisions. And national interests.

Today, we continued to work on the implementation of the Ukrainian Peace Formula, which I presented at the G19 summit, in particular its clause on food security. To this end, I spoke with the President of Senegal and the Chairperson of the African Union.

About our Grain From Ukraine initiative. This is an initiative that really brings stability and predictability back to the world. And also about the way we can involve African countries in restoring the strength of international law and guaranteeing the completeness of global security.

And one more thing. Today, another 50 Ukrainians were brought home from Russian captivity. Four officers, 46 sergeants and privates. Army, territorial defense, national guards, Navy and border guards. I thank our entire team, which works for the liberation of Ukrainians. Budanov, Yermak, Usov, Malyuk, Lubinets. Well done. I am grateful to everyone who helps!

In total, since February 24, more than 1,300 Ukrainians have already been returned from Russian captivity. We will bring back all the rest! All of Ukraine will be free. All Ukrainians will be at home.

Glory to all who fight for our country!

Glory to all who work to protect Ukraine!

Eternal memory to all those who gave their lives for independence!

Glory to Ukraine!

Kyiv's Maidan, 9 years ago today. Ukrainians then and now fighting for a democratic future free of Russia's influence and oppression. https://t.co/UIPOWYQ6Ec

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 1, 2022

Here is the British MOD’s most recent assessment:

Speaking of missiles, here’s the BBC reporting on what the Russian’s are firing at the Ukrainians:

Russia is now using nuclear-capable missiles with non-explosive warheads to exhaust Ukraine’s air defences, the Ukrainian military has said.

It displayed what it said were fragments of Soviet-made X-55 cruise missiles – designed for nuclear use – found in Ukraine’s two western regions.

The rockets are being launched to “exhaust the air-defence system of our country,” a Ukrainian official said.

He said tests on the fragments did not show abnormal levels of radioactivity.

Ukrainian military experts say Russia may have significantly depleted its vast missile arsenal after carrying out wave after wave of massive strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in recent weeks.

Moscow is now resorting to using blunt projectiles that still cause devastation, they say. A UK intelligence report in November came to similar conclusions.

Russia – which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February – has made no public comments on the issue.

At a briefing on Thursday in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, military official Mykola Danyliuk showed reporters what he described as fragments of X-55 cruise missiles (known as AS-15 by Nato) found in the Lviv and Khmelnytsky regions.

He said the projectiles were designed in Soviet times to hit “strategic targets with predetermined co-ordinates”.

The UK said the missiles were designed “exclusively as a nuclear delivery system”.

However, it is believed the Russian military removed the nuclear warheads from the missiles fired at Ukraine and replaced them with an inert system.

Mr Danyliuk stressed that even a missile armed with a non-explosive warhead “posed a significant danger” because of its kinetic energy and fuel residues.

“This is evidenced by the latest strike when a X-55 missile hit a residential building.”

Testing indicated “no contact [of the missile] with nuclear elements”, he added.

More at the link!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut and Kherson:

BAKHMUT AXIS/2200 UTC 1 DEC/ RU forces occupy a W bank lodgment of the Bakhmutka River south of Ivanhard. RU attempts to supply materiel and reinforcements across the T-05-13 HWY are made costly by UKR artillery and aviation strike missions. RU piecemeal attacks continue. pic.twitter.com/FrriiJIQ0B

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 1, 2022

KHERSON AXIS/ 2345 UTC 1 DEC/ UKR official sources report that some component units of the RU 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 141st Guards Tank Battalion appear to be repositioning south from Mykhailivka, Polohy and Inzhenerne in the Zaporizhzhia region. Developing. pic.twitter.com/58kdibXXXx

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 1, 2022

CNN reports that the US is considering increasing its training program for Ukrainian military personnel:

WashingtonCNN — 

The Biden administration is considering a dramatic expansion in the training the US military provides to Ukrainian forces, including instructing as many as 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers a month at a US base in Germany, according to multiple US officials.

If adopted, the proposal would mark a significant increase not just in the number of Ukrainians the US trains but also in the type of training they receive. Since the start of the conflict in February, the US has trained only a few thousand Ukrainian soldiers, mostly in small groups, on specific weapons systems.

Under the new program, the US would begin training much larger groups of Ukrainian soldiers in more sophisticated battlefield tactics, including how to coordinate infantry maneuvers with artillery support – “much more intense and comprehensive” training than Ukraine has been receiving in Poland or the UK, according to one source briefed on the proposal.

The proposal, which was made at the behest of Ukraine, is still under interagency review by the administration. News of its existence comes more than nine months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and as the onset of winter is expected to slow military operations.

A senior Biden administration official declined to comment on the specifics of the planning, telling CNN that “we won’t get ahead of decisions that haven’t been made, but we are constantly looking for ways to make sure the Ukrainians have the skills they need to succeed on the battlefield as Ukraine defends their territory from Russian aggressionHow decisive so-called “combined arms training” is likely to be on the battlefield remains an open question because the conflict has primarily been fought as a grinding war of attrition between two artillery armies, said Mike Kofman, an expert on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries at the Center for Naval Analyses.

“It’s a good idea because they [Ukraine] need all the training they can get,” Kofman said. But the primary variable on the battlefield right now is the availability of ammunition on both sides, he said. “The Ukrainians aren’t going to be as effective at combined arms maneuvers if they don’t have enough artillery ammunition.”

US European Command declined to comment.

US officials tell CNN the colder weather and subsequent lull in fighting could offer a window to carry out a more robust training regimen, with Ukrainian forces split between the requirement for training outside the country and the need for manpower on the front lines. But those lines have stabilized to some extent, providing a potential opportunity for Ukraine to send out soldiers for the training to begin.

Much more at the link.

Foreign Affairs has an interesting analytical column on long wars. Here’s a sample:When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, few observers imagined that the war would still be raging today. Russian planners did not account for the stern resistance of Ukrainian forces, the enthusiastic support Ukraine would receive from Europe and North America, or the various shortcomings of their own military. Both sides are now dug in, and the fighting could carry on for months, if not years.

Many wars, of course, do last longer. Compromise fails to materialize for three main strategic reasons: when leaders think defeat threatens their very survival, when leaders do not have a clear sense of their strength and that of their enemy, and when leaders fear that their adversary will grow stronger in the future. In Ukraine, all these dynamics keep the war raging.

WHY SOME WARS DON’T END
Wars begin and persist when leaders think they can secure a better outcome by fighting rather than through normal politics. Countries fight long wars for at least three calculated reasons. First, rulers who fear for their survival stay on the battlefield. If Putin believes defeat could end his regime, he has an incentive to keep fighting, whatever the consequences for Russians.

Second, wars persist in conditions of uncertainty—for instance, when both sides have only a fuzzy sense of their relative strength or when they underestimate the damaging consequences of the conflict. In many cases, a few months of battle dispel this fog. Fighting reveals each side’s might and resolve and clears up misperceptions. Rivals find a way to end the war by reaching an agreement that reflects the now visible balance of power. Most wars, as a result, are short.

But in some cases, the fog of war lifts slowly. Take the current situation in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have exceeded everyone’s expectations, but it remains unclear whether they can drive Russian troops out of the country. A cold winter could erode Europe’s willingness to keep delivering funds and weapons to Ukraine. And the battlefield effects of Russia’s partial mobilization in September will only be apparent months from now. Amid such persistent uncertainties, rivals can find it harder to strike a peace deal.

Finally, some political scientists and historians argue that every long war has at its heart a “commitment problem”—that is, the inability on the part of one side or both to credibly commit to a peace deal because of anticipated shifts in the balance of power. Some call this the Thucydides Trap or a “preventive war”: one side launches an attack to lock in the current balance of power before it is lost. From Germany’s effort to prevent the rise of Russia in 1914 to the United States’ desire to stop Iraq from becoming a nuclear power in 2003, commitment problems drive many major wars. In those circumstances, bargains can unravel before they are even made.

Click across and read the rest.

Every day, Ukraine is expecting another massive missile attack on our cities and villages.
Thank you to our Norwegian partners for making the lives of our citizens much, much safer.
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇴 pic.twitter.com/FRN1cLXEED

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 1, 2022

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

The dark times turn the light on you 🫶🏻 pic.twitter.com/LhyMTYhQ8C

— Patron (@PatronDsns) December 1, 2022

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

З першим днем зими, мої любі!❤️ #песпатрон

♬ original sound – 🤍 || 32k!

The caption machine translates as:

Happy first day of winter, my loves!❤️ #pespatron

Open thread!

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Reader Interactions

47Comments

  1. 1.

    zhena gogolia

    December 1, 2022 at 9:05 pm

    Slava Ukraini

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

    December 1, 2022 at 9:11 pm

    This is such a beautiful line:

    We will never allow anyone to build an empire inside the Ukrainian soul.

    I’d love to see artwork made with that quote.

    Bear Grylls stopped by Kyiv! Seeing everyone in their puffy coats surrounded by snow makes me feel a bit dumb for whining that it was only 64 in my apartment when I woke up. In my defense, years of illness have left my body unable to figure out how to cope with anything below 70 or above 85.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  3. 3.

    Ladyraxterinok

    December 1, 2022 at 9:12 pm

    A bit Off Topic—–

    Does the Christmas song Carol of the Bells come from Ukraine?

  4. 4.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 1, 2022 at 9:16 pm

    A clarification. Ukraine celebrates Independence Day on August 24, which is the date (in 1991) when the Verkhovna Rada (the legislative body) of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic declared its independence. It then called for a referendum, to solidify/codify that position. The referendum was held on December 1 and, as noted by Adam, the result was not close. So while this day is significant, August 24 is more like the US’s July 4, a national holiday with parades and such.

    The declaration makes note of Ukraine’s 1000-year history of nation-formation, and refers to its territory as indivisible and inviolable. Wiki link.

  5. 5.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 1, 2022 at 9:20 pm

    @Ladyraxterinok: Yes, it is a melody written by the composer Mykola Leontovych. The song, in Ukrainian, is called “Shchedryk” and is a New Year’s song, not a Christmas carol. The English words were written later, by someone else, and bear no relation to the Ukrainian words. The Wiki article on it is pretty good.

  6. 6.

    counterfactual

    December 1, 2022 at 9:22 pm

    @Ladyraxterinok: From Wikipedia:

    “”Carol of the Bells” is a popular Christmas carol, with music by Ukrainian composer Mykola Leontovych in 1914[1] and lyrics by Peter J. Wilhousky. The song is based on the Ukrainian folk chant “Shchedryk”.[2] The music is in the public domain, Wilhousky’s lyrics are however under copyright protection (owned by Carl Fischer Music).”

     

    Wilhousky was a Ukrainian-American composer.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 1, 2022 at 9:24 pm

    @Ladyraxterinok: Yes. It’s based on the folk song Schedryk. Here’s a good run down of its history:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/12/carol-bells-shchedryk-ukraine-leontovych.html

    A group of men and women in traditional embroidered dress took the stage at Carnegie Hall on Oct. 5, 1922, for a performance that the New York Tribune dubbed “a marvel of technical skill.” The New York Times called the music they made “simply spontaneous in origin and artistically harmonized.” The New York Herald described the costume-clad singers as expressing “a profound unanimity of feeling that aroused genuine emotion among the listeners.” The audience that cheered for encores and threw flowers on the stage didn’t know it at the time, but they had just heard what would eventually become one of the world’s most beloved and recognized Christmas songs: “Carol of the Bells.”

    Onstage was the Ukrainian National Chorus conducted by Alexander Koshetz. At the end of Part 1 of the program at Carnegie Hall, they performed composer Mykola Leontovych’s arrangement of a traditional Ukrainian song the playbill called “Shtshedryk.” The audience likely also did not know that just over a year before the New York premiere, Leontovych had been assassinated by the Cheka—the Bolshevik secret police.

    The song’s journey onto the world’s stage and its transformation into an American Christmas classic is a tale of musical inspiration, nationalism, and political violence. At its center is a beautiful, haunting melody that has captivated audiences for over a hundred years and spawned countless versions.

    “There are many people who don’t know it’s Ukrainian, I think the majority,” says Larisa Ivchenko, head of the music department at the Vernadsky National Library of Ukraine in Kyiv. When I visited in 2017, Ivchenko had spread out photographs, sheet music, and program tour brochures that are part of the archive’s collection. A photo dated 1919 from Prague shows the chorus, then known as the Ukrainian Republican Kapelle. In the photograph, a group of almost 80 people are posed without smiling—the men wearing black suits and the women in white dresses.

    Much more at the link.

    Here are two different versions. The first I’ve posted here before.

  8. 8.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 1, 2022 at 9:25 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Yes, but posting “Happy Independence Referendum Anniversary” doesn’t exactly trip off the tongue.

    That said, I have made some tweaks.

  9. 9.

    Uncle Cosmo

    December 1, 2022 at 9:27 pm

    (deleted, everyone got there before me…)

  10. 10.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 1, 2022 at 9:32 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: I’m fine with what you wrote in the first place, I just wanted to make sure the readers have the full picture.

  11. 11.

    Anonymous At Work

    December 1, 2022 at 9:36 pm

    Thank you for hte music, one of the few Xmas tunes I can stand.

    Back to Ukraine’s military situation, why are RU units pulling back from Dniepro?  Are they trying to rotate off units to rest or pulling back to better winter quarters?  I cannot imagine that RU are actually dumb enough to risk losing the south bank.

  12. 12.

    bookworm1398

    December 1, 2022 at 9:39 pm

    Strange to realize that Zelenskyy wasn’t old enough to vote in that election.

  13. 13.

    Anoniminous

    December 1, 2022 at 9:40 pm

    A while back a commenter whose name I’ve forgotten asked for references about the modern world’s ability to manufacture poison injecting drones – an animat. Basically it’s a matter of a sensory system and a delivery system. One of the classic Biology publications is Jakob von Uexküll’s “A Stroll Through the Worlds of Animals and Men: A Picture Book of Invisible Worlds” where he introduces the concept of Umwelt which can be defined as:

    the subjective world of an organism, enveloping a perceptual world and an effector world, which is always part of the organism itself and a key component of nature, which is held together by functional cycles connecting different Umwelten.

    And the canonical example is a tick sensing the odor of butyric acid dropping onto a mammal to feed.

    And so, too, our poison dispensing animat. Give it the ability to detect butyric acid and a Chemical-to-Be-Named-Later to signal who not to sting and Bob’s your uncle.

    Have to be a complete sociopathic homicidal manic LOON to build and release these things but that wasn’t the question.

  14. 14.

    Alison Rose

    December 1, 2022 at 9:44 pm

    Since we’re speaking of music, they did the tree lighting in Sacramento this evening and one of the performances was from a local Bandura Ensemble, and it was very sweet. It was mostly children, perhaps some of the musicians were older teens though. The name of the song wasn’t mentioned, just called a traditional Ukrainian carol. Maybe G&T or someone will know it? (Should start at the right spot, but if not, skip to 17:10.) I appreciated that they were invited there!

  15. 15.

    Alison Rose

    December 1, 2022 at 9:45 pm

    @bookworm1398: Yeah, I very often forget he’s only two and a half years older than me.

  16. 16.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 1, 2022 at 9:58 pm

    @Alison Rose: Not a traditional carol, sounds more like a song made for the children. Their coordination and enunciation isn’t very good.

  17. 17.

    Alison Rose

    December 1, 2022 at 10:00 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Heh, well no, they’re not professionals, it’s true. But they looked adorable and I’m sure they enjoyed it :)

  18. 18.

    Ivan X

    December 1, 2022 at 10:08 pm

    Reading about how this war may well drag on for years, as well as the appearance of Iran as a potential source of perpetual Russian weaponry, is a bummer. I can only imagine how it feels for Ukrainians.

  19. 19.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 1, 2022 at 10:09 pm

    So, on Carol of the Bells, I’m going to sound like a crank. I appreciate the links posted by Adam, but… The Vilnius choir’s Ukrainian pronunciation isn’t very good, although I give them points for trying. The second video, I don’t know where that comes from, but when she sings the supposed English words, it gets pretty weird. I mean, “fair as a dove” isn’t *anywhere* in the original. The Ukrainian word “chornobryva” – which is often used, literarily, as a compliment – means dark-browed. Prominent, dark eyebrows were/are considered attractive, and it’s a very mellifluous word in Ukrainian.

    Anyway, here is a children’s choir from Kyiv singing the song, in the main cathedral of the Ukrainian Greek-Catholic Church (Byzantine/Eastern Rite) in Kyiv.

  20. 20.

    Bill Arnold

    December 1, 2022 at 10:23 pm

    @Anoniminous:
    People should be aware of these videos. We’re collectively headed down these paths, unless we turn aside/back.
    Slaughterbots is a 2017 arms-control advocacy video presenting a dramatized near-future scenario where swarms of inexpensive microdrones use artificial intelligence and facial recognition to assassinate political opponents based on preprogrammed criteria.
    Slaughterbots(youtube, 7:47, 2017)
    Slaughterbots – if human: kill()(youtube, 5:27, 2021)

  21. 21.

    lashonharangue

    December 1, 2022 at 10:23 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Can you say more about what has prompted this government action against the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine?  I know the Ukrainian Church has split with the Russian Church, but what does the government role in this mean?  Was there something specific that required the government to get involved?

  22. 22.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    December 1, 2022 at 10:28 pm

    @Uncle Cosmo: that’s happened to me, more times than I can count.

    you gotta be fast to be the first to answer a question around here!

  23. 23.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 1, 2022 at 10:40 pm

    @lashonharangue: The Russian Orthodox Church (in Russia) is, as I assume you know, joined at the hip to the Putin government. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) – or more specifically its clergy and employees – are essentially agents of the russian government.

    The ecclesiastical divisions are a bit more than I have the energy to go into this late. But what’s happening now is really just a matter of internal security.

  24. 24.

    Shalimar

    December 1, 2022 at 11:02 pm

    @Alison Rose: You’re lucky.  I can deal with cold, but I sweat at 76 and I can’t stand sweaty pillows. It is not easy or cheap to live in Florida when you need the temperature at 75 or below.

  25. 25.

    Aaron

    December 1, 2022 at 11:04 pm

    WTF? From Foreign Affairs:

    to the United States’ desire to stop Iraq from becoming a nuclear power in 2003,

    the Iraq invasion had literally nothing to do with ‘stopping iraq from becoming a nuclear power’

    this is historical revisionism of the highest order.

  26. 26.

    Andrya

    December 1, 2022 at 11:06 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:  I agree with everything you said.  Kirill, the Russian Orthodox Patriarch of Moscow (AKA Mr. $30,000 watch) is a wholly owned subsidiary of vladimir putin- and the Russian Orthodox church in Ukraine follows the Moscow party line. And, of course, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew (more or less the pope of Eastern Orthodoxy) declared the Ukrainian Orthodox church “autocephalous” (not subject to Moscow) in 2019.  Nonetheless, this move troubles me.  Not as being morally wrong, but as being bad strategy.  putin has been claiming that that (part of) the justification for the invasion is that russians in Ukraine are being persecuted.  Doesn’t this move kind of bolster putin’s claim of persecution?

  27. 27.

    Chetan Murthy

    December 1, 2022 at 11:11 pm

    @Aaron: Yeah, I noticed that too!

  28. 28.

    Another Scott

    December 1, 2022 at 11:17 pm

    @Anonymous At Work:

    We are not "withdrawing" in Kherson. It is a strategic rearward advancement maneuver to better positions as part of the plan of goodwill gestures and feints.

    I remain a master strategist.— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) December 1, 2022

    HTH!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  29. 29.

    Lyrebird

    December 1, 2022 at 11:23 pm

    @Andrya: Doesn’t this move kind of bolster putin’s claim of persecution?

    I am not finding the link right now and can’t look further, but I thought I saw headlines a week or two ago about a raid.

    Sounds like they found evidence of malfeasance.

  30. 30.

    Lyrebird

    December 1, 2022 at 11:30 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Thanks for the link to that choir, love it!

  31. 31.

    Jay

    December 1, 2022 at 11:34 pm

    @Lyrebird:

    bunch of raids,

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/pro-russian-literature-forged-documents-found-during-raids-on-ukrainian-orthodox-church-buildings-security-service/2746183

  32. 32.

    Lyrebird

    December 1, 2022 at 11:42 pm

    @Jay: Hey thank you for putting substance in for my vague recollection!

    The situation is really sad.  If “sad” can cover such enormous betrayals.

    On NASAMs, on HIMARS, complete the eviction!

  33. 33.

    Ladyraxterinok

    December 2, 2022 at 12:27 am

    Thanks to everyone who posted information about Carol of the Bells.

    Even more reason to appreciate the culture, history, and contributions of the people of Ukraine.

  34. 34.

    Anoniminous

    December 2, 2022 at 12:29 am

    @Bill Arnold:

    The problem … the unsolvable unsurmountable problem … is the people who care don’t have agency and the people who have agency don’t care.

  35. 35.

    Medicine Man

    December 2, 2022 at 12:33 am

    @Gin & Tonic: I learned about the origin of Carol of the Bells on Twitter, from a younger lady who sang the original. Then shortly after I learned from a Ukrainian Canadian lady that Mykola Leontovych was murdered by the Checka a few years after he and Wilhousky translated the carol into English.

  36. 36.

    Chetan Murthy

    December 2, 2022 at 12:35 am

    @Ladyraxterinok: Most of us have unwittingly spent most of our lives attributing the creations, inventions, deeds, and history of Ukraine and Ukrainians, to the Soviet Union and Russia.  Timothy Snyder and others have talked about this myopia, and talking about things like this piece of music reminds us all of Ukraine’s  distinct culture and cultural contributions.

  37. 37.

    Medicine Man

    December 2, 2022 at 12:36 am

    @Medicine Man: NM. I saw Adam got to this later in the thread.

  38. 38.

    Anoniminous

    December 2, 2022 at 12:41 am

    @Aaron:
    Don’t remember the Nigerian Yellow Cake Hoax  spread by our beloved Intelligence Agencies?
    And there was mobile Bio-Warfare Laboratories too also.  Alas it turned out they were for the production of hydrogen to fill artillery balloons.​

  39. 39.

    way2blue

    December 2, 2022 at 12:42 am

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Lovely.  Both.  Thanks for posting the videos.

  40. 40.

    Chetan Murthy

    December 2, 2022 at 12:42 am

    @Anoniminous: And the aluminum tubes that were just perfect for centrifuges!  Don’t forget those!

  41. 41.

    way2blue

    December 2, 2022 at 12:52 am

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Thank you G&T.  I feel I’ve watched a ballet set to this melody…

  42. 42.

    Carlo Graziani

    December 2, 2022 at 1:03 am

    @Ivan X: I wouldn’t put too much stock in these very schematic academic political science “explanations” of why wars drag on or end quickly. They’re more useful as archiving schemes for past conflicts than as predictive tools, in my opinion.

    The war in Ukraine is a baby. Nine months old. In that short time, which seems forever to our anxious perspective, Russia has gone from preeminent revisionist world power predestined to seize whatever it chooses to take, to raggedy-ass, desperate, practically destitute, defeated, surrounded, doomed ex-empire. Only the end-game remains to be written out.

    Imagining this as a new long-war agony is just more realist bullshit from people trying to force negotiation frameworks into being because they are offended that great powers aren’t being “reasonable”, and this violates their academic theories of how conflict ought to be regulated.

  43. 43.

    Anoniminous

    December 2, 2022 at 1:04 am

    @Chetan Murthy: ​
     
    The biggest reason I didn’t think the Russians would invade Ukraine was that the CIA was saying the Russians were about to invade Ukraine.

  44. 44.

    Steeplejack

    December 2, 2022 at 1:43 am

    @Medicine Man:

    [. . .] a few years after he and Wilhousky translated the carol into English.

    To be polite, highly unlikely. Wilhousky was 18 when Leontovych died in 1921 and didn’t hear the latter’s original composition until a Carnegie Hall concert in 1922. There is no evidence that the two ever met, or that either visited the other’s country. Wilhousky’s (completely different) lyrics were composed in 1936.

  45. 45.

    dr. luba

    December 2, 2022 at 3:05 am

    @Alison Rose: I don’t know it, but was able to find it for you.  I suspect it may be a fairly modern carol, based on the text, but I could be wrong. (“Ukraine” as an ethnonym only became common in the 1800s.)

    It is called either “Ukrainian Children’s Carol” or “Today in Bethlehem”

    Text:
    Нині в Вифлеємі
    Сталася новина,
    Там повила Мати Божа
    Та Божого Сина.

    В пелени повила,
    В сіні положила,
    Люлі, люлі, любий сину,
    Ти дитино мила…

    Українські діти
    Ісуса вітають,
    Веселими пісеньками
    Його звеселяють.

    Ой, Ісусе, любий,
    Кращий, як ті квіти,
    Пригорни до себе нині
    Українські діти.

    Щоб ми були добрі,
    Щоб ми були щасні,
    І розумні, і здорові,
    Мов ті квіти, красні.

    Ти, Дитино Божа,
    На пахучім сіні.
    Дай нам щастя й кращу долю
    Сумній Україні.
    In English:

    Today in Bethlehem
    There was news,
    The mother of God has given birth
    To the Son of God.

    She wrapped him in swaddling clothes
    And laid him in the hay
    Sleep, sleep, my dear son
    You are my dear child…

    Ukrainian children
    greet Jesus,
    With merry songs
    They make Him happy.

    Oh, Jesus, dear
    Prettier than those flowers
    Hold close to you now
    Ukrainian children.

    That we may be good,
    To make us happy
    And smart and healthy
    Like those beautiful flowers.

    You, Child of God,
    On the fragrant hay
    Give us happiness and a better destiny
    For sad Ukraine

  46. 46.

    dr. luba

    December 2, 2022 at 3:16 am

    One more note on Shchedryk–as other have noted, it is a New year’s song.  Ukrainians at the winter holidays sing both koliadky and shchedrivky, i.e. Christmas and New Year’s song.  Kylymnyk’s research into them shows that many of these songs predate christianity, although christian koliadky have been written in the last millennium as well.

    Originally, the New Year was celebrated in the spring, thus shchedrivky have spring imagery.  In Schhedryk, the song is about larks returning home from the south, about lambs giving birth.  Under Peter the Great, the New year was moved to January 1, and the traditions moved with it.

    No one knows where Leontovych got the melody and words for Shchedryk.  At least two locations in Ukraine have been suggested, but no similar songs are sung there.  He probably took a lot of liberties with the original.

    I grew up singing this song.  As kids, we used to go caroling with our Ukrainian school, visiting people’s houses and singing to raise money for the school. We would also get treats of sweets (and our adult drivers were given vodka……it was the 60s and 70s).  All sorts of organizations would go caroling, beginning on Xmas day (January 7 for us); we would get numerous visits at our home. Sadly, the custom has largely died out in the diaspora.

  47. 47.

    dr. luba

    December 2, 2022 at 3:26 am

    Per Ukrainian tradition, December 1 is the first day of winter.  It is also the start of “Ukrainian Ramadan”–the winter cycle of holidays from “Roman” (December 1) to “Yordan” (Theophany, January 19th). That is why Patron posted the video today.

    Patron:

    I greet you all on the first day of winter!

    May this winter be warm and cozy for you!

    Like my yellow bed with the duckies.

    Dress warmly, don’t forget your hats and mittens!!

    (Іncidentally, there are many nice things for sale in my shop).

    And to everyone a cozy wintry lick!

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