Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

All your base are belong to Tunch.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

A Senator Walker would also be an insult to reason, rationality, and decency.

Americans barely caring about Afghanistan is so last month.

Everybody saw this coming.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 283: Just a Quick Saturday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 283: Just a Quick Saturday Night Update

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Before we get started, I’ve just want to quickly deal with the Starlink Snowflake’s canine and equine extravaganza. When I first dealt with the subject of Hunter Biden’s laptop, on 19 OCT 2020, I indicated that this was similar to what we’ve seen from Russia in regard to influence ops. When I next took up the topic, on 29 OCT 2020, after Guo Wengu aka Miles Kwok aka Eugene Miles Guo set up a web site to host the material, I made the connection between Guo and the PRC. Specifically that he has been credibly accused of being covered opposition/an asset of the PRC’s Ministry of State Security in a now withdrawn Federal civil suit. I’m not going to re-litigate any of that tonight other than to say I think the focus should be on the latter not on the former.. What I do want to focus on was something I was not tracking back in October 2020: that a bunch of previously inactive, newly created, and/or sporadically active Chinese/Chinese language Twitter accounts were blasting out tweet after tweet with links to the material Guo had posted, with screen grabs of the most salacious material, or with video snippet embeds of it. That’s what I learned from yesterday’s “expose”. And I think it is the most important takeaway as I’ll explain below.

For the past week a bunch of previously inactive, newly created, and/or sporadically active Chinese/Chinese language Twitter accounts have been blasting out tweet after tweet after tweet with links to porn sites, with NSFW and barely SFW screen grabs, and with video snippet embeds NSFW and SFW . A lot of the screen grabs and vids are off the same, very attractive young Chinese woman captioned with a variety of messages and using hashtags for the cities where the protests have taken place and/or hashtags associated with the protests. All of it intended to overwhelm Twitter and make it difficult for anyone to see the pictures and video of the anti-COVID lockdown protests.

October 2020: mass tweeting by Chinese Twitter accounts of home made porn either of or asserted to be Hunter Biden. November 2022: mass tweeting by Chinese Twitter accounts of both hard and soft core porn to divert attention from the anti-COVID lockdown protests.

Given that we’re watching the exact same tactics being repeated, my only question is what, exactly, was the PRC doing in October 2020 that they were trying to divert everyone’s attention from?

Here is President Zelenksyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

I held another meeting of the Staff. The commanders reported on the situation in specific directions – in the most important directions.

In Donetsk region – Bakhmut, Soledar – now, as before, it’s the hottest, most painful. We do everything to help our boys in this direction. Our heroes who are holding the defense there. Everyone there deserves the highest gratitude!

And now I would like to separately thank the border guards of the Chop detachment, who are fighting near Bakhmut and today “landed” another plane of the occupiers.

Luhansk region and Kharkiv region – we’re strengthening our forces. South – we continue to erase the capabilities of the occupiers. Border – we’re strengthening the entire perimeter. Black Sea water area – we’re working so that finally Kalibr missiles could be at least at the bottom of the sea.

Of course, we discussed further steps in the area of total spiritual independence of Ukraine and protection of our state from informal networks of influence of the terrorist state.

A separate conversation at the meeting of the Staff is about energy. Recovery progress and object protection. We are constantly working on it.

The discussion on price caps, i.e. on limiting the export price of Russian oil, has ended in the world. Unfortunately, without big decisions, as you wouldn’t call it a big decision to set such a limit for Russian prices, which is quite comfortable for the budget of a terrorist state.

Russia has already caused huge losses to all countries of the world by deliberately destabilizing the energy market. And the world cannot dare its real energy disarmament. It’s a weak position.

And it’s only a matter of time when stronger tools will have to be used anyway. It is a pity that this time will be lost.

The logic is obvious: if the price limit for Russian oil is $60 instead of, for example, $30, which Poland and the Baltic countries talked about, then the Russian budget will receive about a hundred billion dollars a year.

This money will go not only to the war and not only to Russia’s further sponsoring of other terrorist regimes and organizations.

This money will also be used to further destabilize precisely those countries that are now trying to avoid big decisions.

Today, I held a meeting with the leaders of our foreign policy bloc.

We summed up the week and are preparing new events for December and January. Very powerful steps. Ukraine’s position will be heard, Ukraine’s interests will be realized despite everything.

And one more. Yesterday I spoke with students of universities: Skovoroda University in Pereiaslav, Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Skovoroda Kharkiv National Pedagogical University. Three institutions out of many that keep the memory of Skovoroda and preserve Ukrainianness itself.

And today I also visited the exhibition “The World of Skovoroda” at the Ukrainian House in Kyiv.

And it is right that in such conditions, in such a year, events for the 300th anniversary of Skovoroda are taking place all over the country. It is right that there is strength, there is the strength to take care of Ukrainian in all its manifestations.

Because our victory is being achieved by the strength of arms and the strength of the spirit. The strength of the soldiers and the strength of the people. The strength of the state and the strength of culture. The strength of our unity is our ability to work together for the sake of Ukrainian interests and our ability to support each other. Support, because we are Ukrainians, and the strength of this argument alone should be enough for all of us.

Glory to all who fight for Ukraine!

Glory to all who work for our country!

Eternal memory and respect to all those who gave their lives for independence!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Izium and Bakhmut:

The Russians have been leaving a new batch of booby traps for the Ukrainians. CAT-UXO has the details:

Ukraine AD Switch

Description
This is a new improvised Russian Anti-disturbance (AD) Switch recently observed in Ukraine, used to boobytrap landmines.

On the 01 Dec 2022, a Ukrainian sapper was killed by this anti-disturbance switch fitted to a TM-62 AV landmine.

The landmine was pulled in accordance with demining and EOD clearance SOPs and then when lifted by the deminer it detonated.

The images show a mock-up of the improvised switch.

The switch has a double-impulse, anti-disturbance function that uses two ball bearings, a magnet and an electric circuit.

It is assessed the first movement dislodges one of the ball bearings, which is attached to an electrical contact.

This movement closes the arming switch.

The second movement returns the ball to its original position, which closes the firing switch and fires the detonator.

When conducting demining pulling drills on the first pull, lifting the landmine causes the fuze to arm and on a second pull, movement or pickup of the landmine causes the second ball bearing to drop causing the completion of the circuit.

A massive thanks to the EOD operators in Ukraine who have allowed this information to be shared further within the EOD community, together our knowledge saves lives.

Any additional images and technical information are very much appreciated.

 

This is what the landmines can do:

 

Mariupol last winter:

Kharkiv this winter:

There was a lot of discussion a couple of days ago about Carol of the Bells and its roots in the Ukrainian song Schedryk. I meant to get back to it last night or the night before, but there were other things to cover. However, and recognizing that G&T and Dr. Luba answered a bunch of questions in the comments for people, I thought I’d get to it tonight.

The tweet below contains the earliest recording of the song. I have included the full video documentary referenced in the first tweet as well:

And here’s the Ukrainian Children’s Choir doing an impromptu performance:

And here’s a completely different song that I felt like posting:

Oh, The Red Viburnum in the Meadow has an interesting history. The melody is based on a 17th century Cossack tune. The earliest version of the song was written by Vasyl Pachkovsky for a play sometime between 1907 and 1912. In 1913 the song was re-written by Stepan Charnetsy, the new artistic director at the playhouse where the play had premiered. It is this version that became the anthem for the Sich Riflemen, a Ukrainian unit that fought in World War I. This article at The Kyiv Post has all the interesting details.

Speaking of bells:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

45Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose

    Okay, I’m gonna read the rest of the post, but Adam, this:

    canine and equine extravaganza

    had me CACKLING

    ETA: The very idea of booby-trapping mines is just so…I can’t even come up with the word. Vile, evil, cruel, repugnant…many more.

    Thank you for sharing all the song videos. The woman singing Oh, The Red Viburnum in the Meadow has a lovely voice, very striking. And the video from Mariupol made me just a bit verklempt.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  2. 2.

    Anoniminous

    @Alison Rose: ​
     
    To my certain knowledge anti-tamper devices have been added to bombs and mines since World War II. Today some mines come ‘complete’ with built-in anti-tamper devices. Air dropped mines and cluster munitions almost always have integral anti-tamper circuits that are automatically armed by release or on impact.

  4. 4.

    Carlo Graziani

    Apparently Ukrainian units are beginning to operate openly south of the Dnipro near Kherson. Per ISW:

    Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City. The Ukrainian “Carlson” volunteer special air intelligence unit posted footage on December 3 of Ukrainian servicemen traversing the Dnipro River in boats, reaching a wooden marina-like structure on the east bank, and raising a Ukrainian flag on a tower near the shore. Special Unit “Carlson” reported that this is the first instance of a Ukrainian flag flying over the east bank of the Dnipro River and emphasized this operation will provide a springboard for subsequent Ukrainian operations on the east bank.

    Sources cited are Telegram posts by that Carlson unit, one including a video.

  5. 5.

    oldster

    Adam, on top of everything else you do for us, now you’re providing arts and entertainment? A little history to give us some culcha?

    You’re too good to us, Adam.

    Thanks as always.

  6. 6.

    Gin & Tonic

    Thank you very much for providing historical context around both of those songs.

    The children’s choir is in NYC for a concert at Carnegie Hall tomorrow, December 4, marking the centenary of the first performance of Shchedryk there. The concert is, naturally, sold out.

  7. 7.

    Anoniminous

    @Carlo Graziani: ​ The Russians are building those weird crossroad defensive positions well in from the Dnipro and have seemingly abandoned the tactical advantage of being able to dispute a Ukrainian amphibious assault at the river’s edge. Possibly to lure the Ukrainians into a premature attack?​
     
    UKR can’t possibly supply a sizable force until the Antonivsky Bridge is usable again.

  8. 8.

    Carlo Graziani

    I’ve been wondering about the meaning of the longish pause in the Russian missile campaign against civilian infrastructure. Not that it’s unwelcome, of course. It’s just incoherent, like everything else that the Russians do allegedly on grounds of strategy.

    If the campaign really is (as I believe) the product of the Kremlin’s current “theory of victory” — that is, their high-level strategy for ending the war on terms at least somewhat acceptable to Russia — then we’d expect them to be pursuing it a lot more vigorously than they are. In their minds, the power coming back on in Ukrainian cities counts as a setback, a defeat, even. They should be trying to shut it off again, maybe even go after repair resources. There should be volleys of rockets nearly every day. But there aren’t.

    So perhaps the people who have been doing the munitions counting are actually right.  The Russians are in fact scraping the bottom of their missile armories. I was a bit skeptical that we had that accurate a count, but it sure isn’t restraint that’s keeping them from saturation bombing Ukrainian cities. How interesting.

    So now perhaps we have a race on. The Russians are attempting to purchase a lot more munitions from Iran, supply volume rate unknown. Meanwhile, the West is saturating Ukraine with all the hot shit high-tech air defense kit in the NATO inventory, and the Ukrainians are learning to stitch it all together. We may be about to learn a great deal more about air defense more quickly than at any time since the Battle of Britain.

  9. 9.

    jackmac

    Carol of the Bells is among the loveliest of holiday pieces. What a thrill it will be for the Schedryk kids to perform at Carnegie Hall! Thanks for sharing the video of their Grand Central Station performance.

  10. 10.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Anoniminous: I agree with you. I would also note that charging headlong into prepared defenses at odds guaranteeing slaughter doesn’t really seem like the UA’s style in this war.

    But they are certainly remaining in contact, keeping up pressure from the Zaporizhzhia end, where they are now able to fire on Melitopol. And according to today’s NYT (gift article) the Ukrainian government is calling on civilians on the south bank of the Dnipro to evacuate Russian-occupied areas “…due to the possible intensification of hostilities.”

    So they are at least willing to make the Russians very anxious about this theatre.  Maybe they think they can give Putin nightmares about losing control of Crimea, so that he’ll interfere destructively with control of the war and divert forces from where they’re needed.

    Personally I still have all my pile of chips up in the Svatove-Kreminna area, which would make all this stuff misdirection. But that’s a position I’m going to have to wind up in the next week or two if it doesn’t go down.

  11. 11.

    Geminid

    There was a Ukraine-related article in Politico today, titled “Armed Services chairman rips calls for stepped up oversight of Ukraine aid.” Speaking at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, House Armed Services Committee Chair Adam Smith (WA) responded to remarks by Republican Senator Debbie Fischer (NE) by saying the assertion that tens of billion in aid to Ukraine aid is not being overseen properly “makes me a little crazy.”

    Smith said that Republican claims about lax oversight originated in Russian disinformation, and are being used as an excuse for trying to limit future aid.

    The article said that Congress has appopriated $66 billion for Ukraine thus far, and that President Biden has asked Congress appropriate $38 billion more in the lame duck session. Aid is already being monitered through a process coordinated by the Inspector Generals of the Department of Defence, the State Department, and the U.S. Agency for International Development.

  12. 12.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: Politico had a second Ukraine article today, this one about the expected onslaught of Russian missiles. A Ukrainian official suggested that Russia may be waiting for the weather to get colder, so as to hit the power grid when it hurts Ukraine the most.

  13. 13.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: But even that would be rationing. From the Russian point of view, there was no point in dropping any power that could be restored. If they had the means, they would shut the power and keep it down, not try to judge when to allocate their scarce supply of power outages so as to cause maximum inconvenience. If that’s really what’s going on then the Russians are both crazy and stupid. Not only does their theory have no merit, but their tactics would have no chance of success in a world where it did.

  14. 14.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: Mmm … perhaps what that article (which I haven’t read) meant, is that they’re waiting until they can really use their missiles to exact the greatest damage.  If you take out the power when the weather is tolerable, people are hurt, but nobody freezes to death.  If you instead wait until it’s freezing out, take out the power, and keep it out with repeated waves (b/c you saved enough missiles for that) then maybe you actually kill a buncha folks, and that’ll …. idunno, part two is “??” and part 3 is obviously “PROFIT!”

    The underpants gnomes theory of Russian military victory, I guess.  But it’s at least more sensible than lobbing a few missiles every day, when the damage they inflict can be fixed before anybody freezes to death.

  15. 15.

    Dan B

    @Geminid: Adam Smith is our Rep.  I believe he’s been “good” for military contractors, Boeing etc.  Otherwise he’s very progressive.

  16. 16.

    Dan B

    Adam;  The addition of the cultural pieces is wonderful and a counterpoint to the death and destruction.  I was feeling less interested in reading tonight’s post but am very glad I did.  Thank you very much!

  17. 17.

    oldster

    @Anoniminous, @Carlo Graziani:

    I wonder how this relates to the earlier news about a landing on Kinburn Spit, the eastern bank at the mouth of the Dnipro. I have seen some mixed reports about whether the UKR is still holding that. But perhaps it makes sense to keep putting small patrols across the Dnipro, in order to make the ruzzians nervous?

    I agree that it would be very difficult for them to launch an invasion in force right now, or to try to establish a permanent beachhead on the east bank. But there may be some value simply in keeping up the pressure and the initiative.

    I also agree that the Ukrainians have so far fought as though they value the lives of every one of their soldiers. Not like the ruzzians, who fight as though they’d rather not have to buy their conscripts return tickets.

  18. 18.

    Jay

    ⚡️ISW: Russian document indicates that mobilization in Russia continues.A Telegram channel dedicated to providing Russians legal support to avoid compulsory military service published a document of the Russian National Guard which confirmed that mobilization continues.— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 4, 2022

  21. 21.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: I closed my Twitter account, and I can’t access that content. Is there a geolocation, or a place name for that base?

  22. 22.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: Carlo, you can still access Twitter without an account.  If it complains:

    1. you can blow away your Twitter-related cookies in your browser’s cache
    2. then block twitter.com cookies in your browser
    3. then install something like the KillSticky plugin to allow you to kill popups asking you to login.

    I haven’t had a Twitter account in …. years and still read Josh Marshall’s twitter lists about UA (and click-thru on tweets here) all the time.

  23. 23.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    Thanks, Adam, as always, for these updates.

    Just want to note that when I went to check an address for a concert tonight I noticed that Google Maps now lists NYC’s east village as “Ukrainian Village:”

    https://www.google.com/maps/@40.7271164,-73.994756,15z

    I was very happy to see that.  We certainly have enough Ukrainian flags and institutions to justify it!

  24. 24.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    I don’t have a twitter account, but Tendar is a twitter account who’s reports I trust. The link is to an age restricted vid by a UAF group that Tendar follows, but they often show bodies. So all I can see is the short clip of trashed RAF vehicles.

    As Tendar points out, “apparently”.

  26. 26.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: Thanks, on my to-do list.

    @Jay: I got the same restriction. I don’t really need to see the video, but I was hoping that there would be some geographic reference. Perhaps a link to a Telegram post that can be washed through a translator?

    It could just be noise. On the other hand, it could be part of something larger.

  28. 28.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    until somebody else, ”washes” the vid or does other reporting we don’t know the significance of the victory, the significance of the “base”, as it could be anything from a BTG deployment down to a SBU building.

  32. 32.

    Kattails

    Hi Adam, Thanks for everything, as ever; but I appreciate the link back to your earlier Hunter Biden posts.  Just about every write-up I’ve seen–liberal ones mocking the “importance” of the news–seems to assume the whole thing is legit.  I’ve been surprised given that the provenance was so obviously screwed from the get-go.

  33. 33.

    Ruckus

    @Alison Rose:

    It’s warfare. The intent of warfare is either to kill people and take their land or to stop people who are trying to take your land. Most people don’t like it, but many people will participate because someone is trying to kill them and theirs and/or take their land.

    We need to find some other way to deal with theft and death of country, land and population. If anyone can come up with a better plan, they haven’t since the arrival of man on this planet.

    In case you haven’t figured it out I hate it too. It seems asinine, extremely wasteful, and fucking selfish. Among other words I won’t type here. 58,220 people died while serving in the same war I served during. War is almost always about greed on the part of someone or some country.

  34. 34.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Late to this thread, but I will comment on the Chinese Spam operation on Twitter:

    When I first became aware of this issue early this week, I tried to search for Chinese cities w/ protests on Twitter in English (“Beijing”, “Shanghai””, “Chengdu”, “Nanjing”, etc.), the search results were almost normal, w/ occasional spam posts that pose as ads for escort & gambling services. When I try to search for the same cities in Chinese (“北京”, “上海”, “成都”, “南京”, etc.), the search results were wall to wall spam of ads for escort/gambling services. Whatever the purpose of the spam operation (diverting attention from the protests, clearly, but I can’t see how it would be effective, since information was spreading rapidly w/in the Great Fire Wall), it seems to be aimed at Chinese speakers casually interested in the topic.

    Interestingly, none of the spam showed up on my Twitter feed, possibly because the only people I follow are scholars and analysts of China based in the West, western MSM reporters based in China (or formerly based in China, now temporarily in Taiwan due to visa difficulties), western expats in China, & the one & only Naomi Wu. Twitter algorithm ended up recommending to me overseas Chinese who are aggregating & posting information that are sent over the GFW by people w/in China, & OSINT accounts relevant to China, Taiwan, Ukraine. I have read some claim that searching for Chinese cities in Chinese on Twitter has been returning spam for months, if not longer, though the volume certainly has shot up since the recent protests. People on Twitter are also claiming that such spam is also impacting search results of other cities (such as those in Türkiye). I have not tried to verify myself, so not sure the spam accounts are only drowning the search results in the native languages, as opposed to English.

  35. 35.

    Geminid

    @Jay: Kinburn Spit has a strategic value analogous to the left bank of the Scheldt, the channel leading from Antwerp to the North Sea. The Canadian Army was tasked with clearing the Scheldt after the British forces that captured Antwerp with its massive port facilities intact on September 5, 1944 gave German defenders breathing room to dig in and deny the Allies sea access to this vital port.

    The Canadians waged a grueling, bloody campaign through partially inundated terrain to wrest control of the 25 miles of waterway from the Germans. Demining took weeks, but by November 23rd ships started docking in Antwerp, and the supplies they brought proved critical in repelling the German Ardennes offensive the following month.  Antwerp remained the main supply hub for the Allies until the fall of Germany six month later.

    The failure of British forces to clear the Scheldt in early September, when they had German forces “on the jump,” was probably the biggest mistake made by Eisenhower’s armies in the whole campaign. It can be debited to Montgomery, the British commander. Royal Navy commanders had emphasized to him the waterway’s importance, but he let his subordinate, General Dempsey drop the ball.

    This mistake was not publicized at the time, and the sacrifices Canadian forces made to make good Montgomery’s blunder got relatively little attention outside of Canada.

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I will add that all kinds of dubious forces were trying to push conspiracies wrt Hunter Biden during the 2020 elections.

    One of these forces was  Jimmy Lai, the Hong among tycoon & former owner of Apple Daily media conglomerate (both the owner & the organization are often described as “pro-democracy” in western MSM, but I think “anti-CCP” is far more accurate). Mark Simon, a long time aid (of 2 decades) to Jimmy Lai, admitted to funding research that presumed shady dealings between Hunter Biden & Chinese stated owned entities. I think it was Mark Simon that first gave the laptop idea to GOP operatives, though I could be wrong. Both Jimmy Lai & Mark Simon were vocal supporters of Trump, & were skeptical that Biden was willing to be tough on China.

    Here is SCMP’ reporting on the topic:
    Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai ‘unknowingly funded’ false persona report discrediting Joe Biden
    Here is the Guardian’s:
    Jimmy Lai distances himself from report on Hunter Biden’s alleged China links
    I can’t find NBC’s original reporting on Google, that broke this aspect of the story.

    It is not clear me what actions, if any, Chinese state actors took to influence the 2020 elections. US intelligence community did not allege significant Chinese activities leading up to or after the election. However, a number of anti-CCP forces were quite active, from the Falun Gong associated media, to Jimmy Lai, & Miles Guo (who possible was/is acting as a double agent or playing all sides to ensure his survival).

    Evan Osnos has also done an excellent feature on Miles Guo in the New Yorker:
    How a Tycoon Linked to Chinese Intelligence Became a Darling of Trump Republicans

  37. 37.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: A landscaping customer of mine started reading the Epoch Times during the pandemic. It is connected with the Falun Gong movement, and relentlessly pushes anti-Biden propaganda.

    This journal must be well financed, because it is widely disseminated through out this country but contains hardly any advertising. Its format mimics that of the Wall Street Journal, and it leavens its slanted political coverage with more or less neutral financial reporting.

  38. 38.

    YY_Sima Qian

    More on the Twitter spams:

    Spam only show up if you type city names in Simplified Chinese in Twitter (no spams if you type traditional Chinese or English). The cities affected are far from just the Chinese ones that has seen protests, but include every major city in N. America, the EU, India, & E/SE Asia. No spam for cities in the Global South (such as Africa & L. America). I was thinking that the spam is targeting Simplified Chinese searches for cities where overseas Chinese have held protests, as well. However, for some reason searches for Moscow (莫斯科) & St. Petersburg (圣彼得堡) are also hit by spam.

    Some tech analysts are suggesting that Elon Musk’ firing of most of the content moderation team has made Twitter vulnerable to such spam operations.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid:

    I could never figure out the source of Falun Gong’s funding, going back to the late 90s when they had a large following in Mainland China, & across the Sinophere & ethnic Chinese diaspora. Perhaps the corrupt businessmen & officials that have fled China, cut off from traditional support networks in the Chinese diaspora that are infiltrated & can be pressured by the CCP regime, they have instead funneled some of their overseas assets to the likes of Falun Gong & Miles Guo, who appear to be implacably opposed to the CCP. The Falun Gong & Miles Guo really are alternative support networks. Evan Osnos suggested as much in his profile of Miles Guo.

    The favorite CT w/in China, as well as among the Chinese diaspora not in thrall of the Falun Gong or anti-CCPism in general, suggests that Li Hongzi (the cult leader of Falun Gong) has been a CIA asset from the beginning.

  40. 40.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid:

    Isn’t the Pripyat Marshes the better WW II parallel? A base area for partisan (& SFs in modern warfare) to harass the enemy rear, in support of general offensives by friendly conventional forces? I don’t think the Kinburn Spit can support significant conventional force. Any token force the Russians would have left there could not really threaten a Ukrainian crossing of the Dnipro at Kherson.

  41. 41.

    Geminid

    λ@YY_Sima Qian: The Scheldt’s strategic value was as the sea  access to Antwerp, Europe’s largest port. It also was the route by which elements of the German 15th Army reached safety. They defended the French and Belgian coasts until the Allied breakout from Normandy stranded them on the wrong side of the Maas River.

    The Scheldt region had little value otherwise, and the Allies staged their offensives against Germany from the better ground further inland.

  42. 42.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid:

    A landscaping customer of mine started reading the Epoch Times during the pandemic. It is connected with the Falun Gong movement, and relentlessly pushes anti-Biden propaganda.

    I remember when (the late 90s) the Epoch Times was a free tabloid available only in Chinese grocery stores in NYC, whose only worth was to wrap freshly mongered fish, & whose readership was limited to the loons.

  43. 43.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian:

     

    @Geminid: I mainly wanted to highlight a lesser known but very important factor in the Allied campaign in Western Europe. And, the commenter I responded to is Canadian, an Army veteran I believe.

    The Canadian Army’s acheivements in the campaign against Germany have received short shrift from historians, in part because General Montgomery assigned them tasks like clearing the Scheldt while giving British formations got the more famous roles, like in his wildcat Arnheim adventure portrayed in Ryan’s A Bridge Too Far.

    But as you say, Kinburn Spit is mainly valuable today as a position from which to attack the rest of Russia’s position east of the Dnipro, as well as deny Russia a firing position closer to Odesa  and Mykhalev(sp?). Shipping access to Kherson will have medium and long term importance once Ukraine drives  the Russian Army away from the Dnipro. Then the Dnipro  can resume its important role as a transportation corridor from the Black Sea to Kiev. I expect a lot of infrastruture like locks and dams will be left in bad shape by the Russians and will require repair.

  44. 44.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid:

    You are absolutely right that Canadian contributions on the Western Front have traditionally been overlooked, starting w/ the sacrifices at Dieppe. I was only vaguely aware of the effort to clear the Scheldt, & your comment here (& I think you mentioned it before in relation to Kinburn Spit) has prompted me to learn more about it.

  45. 45.

    Bill Arnold

    A couple of Ukraine-related infosec pieces:
    Via https://mastodon.social/@Pwnallthethings , a technical (and long) discussion of Telegram’s security flaws. It strongly suggests use of WhatsApp, Signal, or iMessage in situations where security is life/death, like insurgencies, and making use of these much more common so that (local authorities) giving users extra attention would require too much resources.
    Russia is spying on Telegram chats in occupied Ukrainian regions. Here’s how. Thanks to a Ukrainian in occupied Kherson, we now know how Russian occupiers are using Telegram to surveil Ukrainians — and how dangerous its design flaws are. (Matt Tait, PwnAllTheThings, Dec 2, 2022)

    Russia instead relied on a third defect in Telegram to surveil communications metadata between Ihor and Smoke, allowing them to watch Ihor’s communications and to ensure he sent them screenshots of his chats with Smoke.
    All three of these issues exist only because of Telegram’s choice to leave their app insecure. The two most serious of these flaws are well-known to Telegram’s engineers—they chose to not fix them on purpose.

    Microsoft is, stylistically at least, becoming a full fledged part of the US military/security establishment. Pretty good piece, though, mostly about the IRIDIUM/Sandworm threat group, but also touching on amped-up Russian Ukraine-war-related extraterritorial propaganda efforts, with (37!) references.
    Preparing for a Russian cyber offensive against Ukraine this winter (Dec 3, 2022 | Clint Watts – General Manager, Digital Threat Analysis Center)
    Sample paragraph (related to influence operations):

    In the coming months, European nations will likely be subjected to a range of influence techniques tailored to their populations’ concerns about energy prices and inflation more broadly. Russia has and will likely continue to focus these campaigns on Germany, a country critical for maintaining Europe’s unity and home to a large Russian diaspora, seeking to nudge popular and elite consensus toward a path favorable to the Kremlin.[17] Strong connections between Kremlin-affiliated ideologues and Germany’s far right will likely be leveraged both online and offline in campaigns targeting German audiences with hardline narratives on the war in Ukraine as well as criticism of the government’s handling of the energy crisis.[18]

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