When was the last time SC didn’t come before Super Tuesday? The 90s? It’s an early state with a high African American % & it’s picked the winner in all but one primary this century. Also it’s an inexpensive media market. People are overthinking this.
— mastodon.social/@Nied (@B_Nied) December 2, 2022
That was the logic, I mean. They should be done away with now.
— Peter Wolf (@peterawolf) December 2, 2022
I look forward to the media being frustrated about having to treat Black people like they matter in the months leading up to the first Democratic primary.
— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha) December 3, 2022
South Carolina also represents most of today’s Democratic coalition: suburban whites & middle-aged black women who go to church
but you don’t get labor or young people https://t.co/HZ9TryPyG7
— Peter Hamby (@PeterHamby) December 2, 2022
Ed Kilgore, at NYMag, “Why Democrats Upended Their Primary Calendar”:
The half-century run of Iowa as the first stop on the road to the Democratic presidential nomination has finally come to an end. On Friday, the Rules and Bylaws panel of the Democratic National Committee ejected the state from the charmed circle of sanctioned “early states” holding contests prior to March. But thanks to a last-minute push from President Biden, the calendar-makers didn’t just dump Iowa and move up the other states while adding Michigan as a new midwestern early state, as many expected. Instead, South Carolina, in the fourth position since it first became an “early state” in 2008, will jump all the way to the front of the line. This proposal — which apparently came as a complete surprise to the South Carolinians — likely reflected Biden’s gratitude to Palmetto State Democrats for saving his candidacy in 2020 after terrible defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire. And it could be a signal to potential rivals that he intends to begin 2024 with a bang. But it also shows that Democrats generally are serious about diversity being a hallmark of the party and strong engagement of people of color (a majority of South Carolina Democratic primary voters are Black) being a strategic necessity…
In the end, the representatives of Iowa and New Hampshire were the only “no” votes on the proposed 2024 calendar, and both states will threaten to make their own 2024 plans, with Iowa holding a now-unsanctioned caucus (it can’t move to a primary without the cooperation of Iowa Republicans, who are perfectly happy with the existing system and calendar), and New Hampshire following a state law requiring its secretary of State to move its primary back perpetually to maintain its first-in-the-nation primary status. But in a gesture that the national party is not in a mood to negotiate with potential renegade states, its resolution requires proposed “early” states to certify their progress towards implementing the new calendar by early January or lose their exemption from the usual rules banning primaries prior to March…
Some wonder why the national parties don’t just adopt a “rational” system like a national primary or rotating regional primaries or whatever “reform” can be devised. But the abiding reality is that states have the exclusive power to set up taxpayer-funded primaries (one advantage of caucuses is that as party-managed and financed affairs, they don’t require any official state legislative authorization); the national parties can nudge them in the desired direction with carrots and sticks, but in the end there’s really no such thing as a primary “system.”
Given this basic structural limitation, Democrats have probably gone about as far and as fast as they could in shuffling the deck for 2024, and even now the rebellious muttering from the excluded or downgraded states could mean trouble down the road. The irony is that if Joe Biden winds up running for reelection without significant Democratic opposition while Republicans have some sort of Trump-DeSantis-Pence-Haley-Pompeo-Cruz donnybrook, the same old calendar, complete with a first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus, may be where all the action is, making the “reformed” Democratic calendar irrelevant (and Democrats are already saying they will revisit the whole subject in 2028). But for now, the old Democratic duopoly looks dead.
I don’t really give a shit about small states going first in a primary because they have cheaper media markets and allow for momentum or whatever the argument is. It’s almost always wrong and just sets up a BS argument about how the DNC stopped The (White) People’s Choice.
— The Fig Economy (@figgityfigs) December 2, 2022
The world holds its breath as Cheryl the Wal-Mart greeter strides the gymnasium floor like a colossus.
The fate of a superpower hangs in the balance.
— Checkless Starfish Who Can Change His Name (@IRHotTakes) December 3, 2022
Iowa may not have changed, but the nation has:
… The U.S. voting population has morphed from about 85% white in 1996 to 69% in 2020, Pew Research shows, with the newest generation able to vote, “Gen Z”, just 55% white. Iowa, with an approximately 90% white population, is no longer an accurate predictor of which candidate will do well on the national stage, Democrats say…
Campaign professional:
It’s a crushing blow to the owners of WMUR, who will lose huge amounts of ad revenue, & will lead to bitterness for all the mediocrities of both parties who think they’re geniuses bc they were once a public endorser of Bill Richardson or John Kasich https://t.co/KGZwqLq8vT
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 2, 2022
New Hampshire campaign professional:
Wait, we in NH are going to go from going second…to going second? The #NHpolitics ecosystem wants me to be upset about this?
Are we going to pretend that because Iowa is a caucus and SC a primary, somehow that will make the whole quadrennial ritual feel different? https://t.co/zdG2QrCgm4
— Dean Barker (@deanbarker) December 2, 2022
Also, retail politics is fun and great and yes it happens in NH and we “kick the tires,” etc… take a look at 2016’s primary winners and ask yourself whether retail politics meant anything.
24/7 cable nets + internet = presidential campaigns are nationalized from the start now.
— Dean Barker (@deanbarker) December 2, 2022
It means two weeks of listening to Republican Sen. Tim Scott. That’s what the media is going to give us.
— Jason Harris (@jharrisfuture) December 2, 2022
Carolina area man:
That’s not a knock on Charleston. I love Charleston. But as a native son of the Great State of Not Charleston, there is a lot more to the state.
— Wyeth Ruthven (@wyethwire) December 2, 2022
different-church-lady
“Well they had to do it because the current system kept giving the Democrats unelectable candidates like Joe Biden and… wait… I’ll come in again…”
Westyny
Like NH I claim second
geg6
Anything other than the Iowa caucus being first is a W for us all. I have never understood why Iowa was first nor why there should be a caucus at all in the 21st century. We’re about diversity, inclusion and participation in the democratic process. Iowa and caucuses are the opposite of that.
H.E.Wolf
Southern Black women are a core voting bloc of the Democratic Party, and I’m glad we’re showing respect.
(Standing ovation in honor of Miz Pearlie, Miz Estelle, and Miz Willie Mae, who made it possible for me to get through 2 challenging summers at UNCSA.)
Triumph
I’m all for punting the lily white Iowa and NH out of places of prominence but I gotta say- not a fan of elevating SC. Put GA first, yes I’m biased bc I’ve lived here forever HOWEVER- higher percentage of African Americans live in GA anyway, and it has actually been competitive in recent memory which is NOT something you can say about SC.
I would do GA, AZ, NV, and MI. Maybe PA in there too.
Ripley
@geg6: A friend once stated, emphatically, that caucuses were “The Most Democratic process” for choosing a nominee.
I’ve never attended one and don’t plan to, because I don’t see the appeal or logic.
Ken
If New Hampshire wants to say they’re first in something, how about “first state with a ranked choice primary”? They could cull candidates until, say, three remain, if they don’t want to go all the way down to one.
It might speed the process of culling out the candidates who shouldn’t have been running, because their party’s voters respond to their message with “Bill who?“
lowtechcyclist
It’s gonna be fun, having SC first, and GA in the front
fourfive. For one thing, the national media will have to learn that a lot of Black people live in rural areas and small towns in SC, unlike in the Northeast where those areas are lily-white.One word of advice to the 2028 candidates, though: don’t spend much time in SC during July and August 2027. It’s freakin’ HOT there in the summers, especially in the Midlands. I’ve lived most of my life in Virginia and Maryland, and I love being outdoors in the summer. But SC summers are just too damn hot.
Suzanne
I still think we should do them all on the same day and spare us all the drama.
If you can’t figure out for whom to vote unless the candidates show up at your state fair, you’re an idiot.
Suzanne
@Triumph:
There would actually be some wisdom in letting the hot states got first. Waiting outdoors in the heat can be unbearable.
Quinerly
I agree. I am all in on SC being first.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/bidens-2024-primary-calendar-may-good-news-kamala-harris-rcna59912
Delk
We are picking a candidate not trying to please the media. The media is going to do what the media wants: piss all over the democrats and drool over an empty podium waiting hours for trump to possibly show up.
eclare
My state, TN, holds its primary on Super Tuesday. I decided early on that whoever SC chose, that’s who I would vote for. That plan worked out well! This sounds like a good change.
Geminid
@Quinerly: I said the other day why I like South Carolina going first.
Someone else also agrees with you. Democratic campaign professional Rachel Bitecofer linked to an AP story titled “Democrats move to make South Carolina, not Iowa, 1st voting state,” with a comment:
When someone asked, “Why not GA, Arizona, MI, PA?” she replied:
Martin
The other change I’d like to see Democrats make is to push the whole calendar later. First primary in May. A year of this shit doesn’t help anyone.
Kirk Spencer
@Suzanne: I actually like the primary season being spread out. It’s saved us from a lot more idiots winning the nominations. It shows us who has the stamina to be good not just for a few days but for a marathon – and the job of US President is a stressful marathon if you do the job. (Heck, even Trump suffered from the presidential aging effect.)
Just my opinion, of course.
Geminid
@Quinerly: Did you and Jo Jo make that trip to Utah? Was it a good one?
TriassicSands
Yeah, but are you mad that you’re second?
Try harder!
Yutsano
New Mexico did a good in the last election. This flew under the radar for me, but it could be a good model for blue states going forward*.
*Looking at you you stupid lumps in Olympia.
TriassicSands
I think the only time I ever saw a presidential candidate in person was when Bob Kerrey ran. He appeared on the University of Colorado campus and I was on the campus that day, so I went to hear what he had to say. I left convinced I wouldn’t support him. I would have arrived at that decision sooner or later, but in that case, seeing and listening to him did the job.
On the other hand, I agree with you.
Kent
You don’t get any labor or young people in Iowa or New Hampshire either.
On the plus side, Black voters are absolutely essential to winning and keeping Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and Michigan. So finding candidates who appeal to Black voters is good strategy.
Kent
@TriassicSands: The only presidential candidate I ever saw in person was Jessie Jackson way back in…..1988?
He didn’t win me over either.
schrodingers_cat
I approve of the changes
OT question from a dead thread below, I need some gadget advice
Does anyone have the instant pot with the air fryer lid? I am thinking of buying it. Do you use it often?Is it a good purchase.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Open thread? I finished the 5000 piece jigsaw puzzle I’ve been working on for a month. Yay!
I guess I have to start writing again.
Sister Golden Bear
@Geminid: I’d like to see New Mexico be one of the first. I assume it’s an inexpensive media market, and balances things with both Western U.S. representation and Hispanics (as well as Native Americans).
Admittedly Hispanics aren’t the core of the party the way Black voters are — which is why SC going first is long overdue — but they’re a rapidly-growing demographic (all across the country) and potentially an important part of the Dems going forward.
And while NM is big, it’s only about about a 3-hour drive from Albuquerque to Las Cruces — the two biggest cities — which is about the same time needed to drive across SC.
ian
I think SC is a big improvement over Iowa, but I do hope they find some way to rotate the first states.
No state should get to pick first every time.
trollhattan
My NH brother welcomes not being bombarded by ads continually for months every four years. Oh wait, if it’s only Republican ads it will be worse than ever.
Kent
@schrodingers_cat: My instant pot is indispensable. But I don’t have the air fryer lid version and didn’t know such a thing existed. I do have the Ninja foodi folding air fryer which is also a fabulous tool. I’m not sure that combining the two makes sense since I use the air fryer a lot for things like pizza that wouldn’t fit into an instant pot
Unless you are severely constrained for space I’m not sure how combining the two makes a lot of sense.
Geminid
@Yutsano: Gabe Vasquez did well flipping the New Mexico 3rd CD. The Democratic legislature gave him some help when they redistricted, but the race was rated a tossup in the weeks leading up to the midterms. I think Watergirl’s fundraising efforts pushed him over the finish line. The good energy generated may have helped also.
Gabe Vasquez is in his mid-thirties, and was born in El Paso, Texas. He spent his childhood across the border in Juarez, then moved back to El Paso for high school. Vasquez graduated from Notre Dame University in 2011, and later worked on Senator Martin Heinrich’s staff. He was a Las Cruces City Councilman before running for Congress.
Vasquez beat Republican Yvette Harrell. She had won a rematch in 2020 against Congresswoman Xochitl Torres-Small, who flipped the open 2nd in the 2018 blue wave. Now Torres-Small serves in the Biden administration as Assistant Secretary of Agriculture for Rural Development.
mrmoshpotato
@lowtechcyclist:
Apologies to Luther, Obama’s anger translator.
National media! Hold on to your lily-white butts!
Gvg
@schrodingers_cat: the only extra for the instant I have is the Silicone lid for refrigeration. I use that a lot. I want a steam diverter for redirecting the pressure relief into the kitchen and not up to the bottom of kitchen cabinets.
Sorry I can’t advise on what you asked.
mrmoshpotato
@Martin:
Ummm….the blathering media would like to blather in your face about that.
cleek
FFS, it doesn’t matter at all who goes first. everybody else gets to vote, too.
Mike in NC
It used to be that the day after Thanksgiving meant that there were real Christmas trees for sale on almost every corner. This year most of the places that sold them previously aren’t carrying them. I had to go online to locate a local dealer. Got a nice six-foot Fraser Fir for $65. They’ll probably be sold out tomorrow. We just got tired of artificial trees.
Philbert
I’m OK with NH being early, just to watch them freeze! Change Iowa to North Dakota while they’re at it.
Ruckus
@geg6:
I agree! This. I have never understood why Iowa should be first and not have an actual election (primary) for national office holders. At best (or maybe worst) it should rotate among the states or they should all be on the same damn day.
WaterGirl
@Dorothy A. Winsor: That’s a big deal. Great work! I’m pretty sure the rule book says that you get one full day off after the completion of a big puzzle before you are obligated to get back to work.
mrmoshpotato
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
West of the Rockies
Not a lot of western regional representation, but so it goes. Yeah, NV, but it is so much less populated than WA, OR, CA…
I wish water rights were more forefront. But not gonna get that with eastern seaboard states and MI.
WaterGirl
@mrmoshpotato: @Dorothy A. Winsor:
Dorothy, you should send me a picture of your completed puzzle so I can add it to this thread.
trollhattan
@mrmoshpotato: “Snow White Skiing in Blizzard.”
trollhattan
@Philbert: Trust me, Iowa be plenty cold.
ian
@cleek: I would argue that it matters to people who live in states that go last in the process. By the time they vote either the nomination has already been clinched, or the race has winnowed down to 2 candidates.
The states that go first get considerably more “candidate time”, with politicians doing retail in state sometimes months or even a year in advance. Those states get their wants and campaign issues addressed by candidates.
In the cases of Iowa and New Hampshire, there was so much retail politicking going on that those states viewed it almost as a tourism boost, with money from candidates and staff being viewed almost as an industry.
Think of how long we had subsidies for turning corn into fuel. We still have some in the tax code. A large part of this was making Iowa and other farm states happy. It isn’t good policy, but it helps politicians get elected, and candidates who wanted to run for president had to think about how taking an anti-corn stance would impact them in Iowa.
Is it the biggest issue facing our country? No. Should our selection process for our leadership be representative of all parts of our country? Yes. How we select presidential candidates matters in terms of who wins. That process should reflect our values.
Another Scott
Kilgore’s piece (at least the excerpt) is good. I’ve felt for a while that rotating primaries/regions would never work because “native sons” would always press for calendars to benefit them when they were ready to run. And Biden would have been crushed if everyone had voted the same day because he didn’t have any money and because of the relentlessly negative coverage.
My recollection is that the GQP went to winner-take-all primaries because they didn’t want to have chaos and a contested convention and wanted to make it easier for JEB to win quickly. And look who ended up winning… :-/
There are major risks in any major changes. These tweaks sound good to me.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ruckus
@cleek:
Actually it does matter, because it sets a tone, it sets at least a part of the advertising and the responses to that.
I’d like us to do a shorter primary season and the all the primaries on the same day. And a lot closer to the actual election. And this caucus crap needs to go, this is supposed to be a democracy so let’s have actual democracy.
mrmoshpotato
@Gvg: Amazon has many steam diverters. I’m leaning towards the cannon or Puff The Magic Dragon.
mrmoshpotato
@Mike in NC: Is your vacuum ready for Pine-needle-palooza? 😁
Geminid
@Philbert: I like keeping New Hampshire early because it is a purple state and I don’t want to piss them off but so much. Iowa, on the other hand, looks like it will be out of reach for a while.
Kent
I’m a Washingtonian but I’m not sure I’d really want a first-in-the-nation primary that puts a laser focus on all the dipshit performative Democratic Socialist types up in Seattle
At least if you don’t want stuff like “Defund the Police” to get elevated as the Democratic party standard.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Kent: I tried to see Jesse Jackson on the Mendocino coast in 1988 and at first he was just very late (“Jesse time” if I remember how it was characterized), and then the campaign stop was canceled altogether, so I have never seen a presidential candidate in the flesh. I could understand the cancellation – there aren’t that many votes in Mendocino County. Too bad, tho; it would have been fun to see and hear him.
Martin
@mrmoshpotato: Yeah, well, fuck them. The party runs the primary. Grow some spine Democrats!
Kent
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): I saw him in Portland. It was the typical menagerie of ‘Free Mumia,” devest from South Africa, Support the Sandinistas, and I don’t remember what all.
mrmoshpotato
@Martin: Agreed. But they’ll still blather in your face.
Glad there’s only one network TV show I watch. But we have local primaries soon, so hooray!
West of the Rockies
@Kent:
For sure… I don’t want Portland leading the way either. But agriculture, water, green energy, tech, and 50 million people in just three states (CA, OR, WA) should have some early representation.
Yutsano
@Kent: Not to mention last time I checked we had a fucked up system. There’s a primary that’s non-binding and our caucus is. I haven’t heard of any changes to that system.
JML
Caucuses are a profound statement of participatory democracy and are a remarkable tool in grassroots political power. They are also exclusionary, unwieldy, and unrepresentative. They can be both of these things at the same time. Their time in American politics has probably gone.
I think it’s good to have early primary states be in smaller states to allow campaigns opportunities to grow. I think they should be split around regionally and held in groups of 2 or 4 so no one state becomes determinative immediately.
This new calendar isn’t bad?
As much as it’s nice to have Pete Buttigieg emerge and have the opportunity to utilize his talent, it’s also ridiculous for the former mayor of a relatively small city to be able to functionally move to Iowa for 6 months and be considered a serious presidential candidate because they can meet 3/4 of the caucus participants of one smaller population state personally but sitting senators are getting tossed because they didn’t have the same same availability.
eclare
@mrmoshpotato: Hahaha….
frosty
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Writing again? Nah, there must be some other distractions around!
Dorothy A. Winsor
@WaterGirl: @mrmoshpotato: The puzzle is approximately 40X60 in. It curls slightly off my dining room table at the top and the bottom.
The picture is called “Bizarre Town.” I can’t really describe it. I think the artist’s name is Colin Thompson. It was a gift. I’ve seen it on Amazon.
@WaterGirl: Pic sent
Kent
They are also a relic of the time when white men made all the decisions and the women stayed home to look after the children.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@frosty: Lordy I hope so
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Uhh… did you read the Kilgore excerpt in the original post?
It’s pretty clear that “the party runs the primary” is an oversimplification at best.
MagdaInBlack
@mrmoshpotato: Dear lord! they have a TFG. Surely that would ruin a meal?
CarolPW
@Yutsano: The causus went away in 2020.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Kent: Well of course he was never going to actually be the candidate, and I have always been a standard Dem liberal, despite my youth at that time*, so some of his rhetoric might have been a bit far for me, but it still would have been fun to see him.
*I supported Humphrey in 1968 (!), with my eye on defeating Nixon
ETA: I couldn’t actually vote until 1972 when I turned 21. I’m proud that the first vote I ever cast was for George McGovern in the CA primary in ’72.
Kent
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): Oh, Jessie Jackson was fun to see. But it just wasn’t about the 1988 election. It was about every performative lefty group taking advantage of the TV cameras to show up and do their thing.
schrodingers_cat
@Kent: Space in the kitchen is always at a premium. I don’t own either an Insta Pot nor an air fryer. So the thought of a gadget that combined the two was attractive.
For a pizza, I would just use my oven or my toaster oven if its slice or small pizza.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Kent: Oh yeah, I’ll give you that!
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@West of the Rockies: Not sure if I agree. Portland isn’t a huge city and Oregon isn’t a high population state. It wouldn’t be an expensive media market. Plus, I think the Pacific northwest has its own set of issues, and I think they deserve more representation. I realize that the DSA types can be really problematic, but they are going to be anyway. If they have an opportunity to participate in the process earlier, maybe it would stop some of the complaining.
mrmoshpotato
@MagdaInBlack: Hahaha! Yeah, I should’ve warned about the two Dump steam diverters in the search results. Sorry.
mdblanche
This video is still the most cogent explanation I’ve seen of the caucus process.
Kent
Portlander here. Well, actually I now live 10 minutes across the river in WA but my roots are there. I’m a 5th generation Oregonian.
What you will get with an Oregon-first primary centered in Portland is fucking ENDLESS performative protests and demonstrations by all the attention-seeking Democratic Socialist types with lots of broken windows, shit set on fire, and endless brawling between ANTIFA types and the Proud Boys types that will generate 24/7 coverage on FOX and all the other media outlets. Along with endless coverage of all the homeless encampments that frequent this “Democrat-run” city.
Portland Democrats are frankly not mature enough to handle the white hot national attention that would come with a first in the nation primary. Trust me on that. And the ones down in Eugene are no better. And they are pretty much all-white to boot. At least with CA you would get some actual diversity.
Martin
@West of the Rockies: I don’t think people understand just how dire shit is in the west. Lake Powell is at 25% capacity. Lake Mead is at 28%. Before the 2024 election, we could be facing a scenario where Las Vegas has almost no drinking water. Arizona has lost almost all of its water for irrigation. The Imperial valley in CA has lost most of its irrigation water. Coachella valley has lost most of its irrigation water and some of its drinking water. Power generation from dams could take 3 million households worth of hydro off the grid.
These reservoirs are approaching dead-pool status (water level below the outlet) pretty fast.
Lake Mead full is 1220 feet. That’s 26M acre-feet of usable water. Lake Mead upper gates is 1050 feet – below that the dam is limited in terms of how much power it can produce. That’s 7.5M acre-feet of usable water. We’re now at 1043 feet. 950 feet is when the dam can’t produce power at all. That’s 2M acre-feet of usable water. Las Vegas alone needs 450,000 acre-feet per year. There’s evaporation, other state have right to water, etc.
Lake Powell is in worse shape.
This could turn around with more favorable rainfall. But I don’t think Saudi farms growing alfalfa to export back to Saudi Arabia in Arizona are going to voluntarily give up their water rights because Las Vegas is about to dry up and blow away (same for almond/tomato growers in CA, cotton growers in Arizona, etc.)
In 2008 the entire presidential campaign ultimately pivoted onto the housing/financial crisis. The health care debate was shelved.
I agree that early primaries should reflect better what the electorate will look like. But at the same time, states like Iowa shape the policy space by going early. So there’s going to be a massive amount of time talking about ag subsidies and trade and less about policing or transportation policy. As such South Carolina isn’t a helpful state. It’s demographically a LOT better than Iowa, but policy-wise it’s no better, and I worry that we’re going to roll into 2024 with climate change being some 7th tier policy issue because it’s not instrumental to winning primaries and then we roll toward the general and there’s this oh shit moment because a big part of the US food supply is about to collapse and a major US city is facing a loss of drinking water and no attention has been paid to it.
Quinerly
@Geminid: nope. We didn’t make it. Postponed until March.
We are in AZ for almost 3 weeks. Leave in 2 weeks. Grand Canyon just before Christmas and Winslow on Christmas. Flagstaff for NYears.
Kent
@Martin: Yes the water situation is dire in the Southwest. But it is also a regional issue and water law pretty much requires regional solutions not national ones. And we are talking the Southwest not “west”. Here in the Pacific Northwest we have plenty of water. At least in the populated parts of the region.
There isn’t all that much to be done at the national level unless you want Congress to just re-write water law across the west. Which I would favor frankly. But I don’t see happening. If the states in the Southwest can’t come to any sort of comprehensive agreement, I don’t see how their representatives in Congress will do any better since Congress has far more veto points and obstacles to progress. And I don’t see a Senator from say Rhode Island making it their focus to wade into that mess.
Geminid
@Kent: The only Virginians I see calling for caucuses now are Republican radicals. They like caucuses because they can summon enough zealots to dominate.
Practically speaking, Republicans would be better off with primaries because they need to attract voters outside their radical base. So I hope they stay with the caucus/convention model.
It happened to work out for them last year, but that was a singular event due to the pandemic. The Central Commitee’s first plan-a “drive through convention” at Liberty University in Lynchburg- blew up when Liberty U. officials said they hadn’t been asked but the answer was no.
The state of Virginia would have run a primary alongside the Democrats’, but right before the deadline the Central Committee chose to hold a “Disassembled Convention” that nominated Youngkin.
Going forward Republicans will revert to the caucus, county convention, state convention model. As for the Democrats, they’re done with caucuses.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Kent: OK. Well, how about Alaska, then? Media market will be cheap. We are making inroads with Native Alaskans and this might accelerate that trend. They are at the forefront of climate change issues.
West of the Rockies
@Kent:
You say that like it’s a bad thing…//
Geminid
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Alaska’s a challenging state to campaign in. Their politicians are used to flying around in small passenger planes, but a high profile presidential primary would spread those planes and pilots awful thin.
And now, with Representative Mary Peltola in Congress, Alaska’s Natives will have some real clout. Senator Murkowski is attentive to the interests of the Native Corporations as well. She owed her singular write-in victory in 2010 to support from Alaska’s Native Corporations and labor unions, I believe
There was an interesting incident a few days before Alaska’s ranked choice runoff last November. Senator Murkowski told an Alaska reporter that she planned to rank Democrat Mary Peltola 1st in the House runoff. Murkowski said she’d known and worked with Ms. Peltola for 20 years and trusted her to do right by Alaskans.
Martin
@Kent: That’s incorrect. If California can’t grow fruits and vegetables that’s a national problem due both to how other states have steered their agricultural economy and also biases in federal farm policy. California is 12th in farm support despite having double the farm acreage of any other state.
Additionally, the underlying problem with addressing water usage are federal laws regarding property rights and water rights being seen as a property right. States cannot tell property owners how to use water in certain ways without being subject to a federal 5th amendment takings claim. Now, states can buy out those rights, but holy fuck even CA can’t afford that when for agricultural land, the water rights are most of the value of the property. Only the federal government can intervene to qualify how the 5th amendment applies to water rights.
If we are powerless to address water consumption due to property rights, we run into these scenarios where agriculture can deny residential access to water because ag rights are stronger than most residents who have *no* water rights, or insufficient water rights under the aggregate rights that their municipal land ownership grants.
CA has enough water for residents. We don’t have enough for almonds and tomatoes. CA doesn’t eat most of the almonds and tomatoes – people outside of CA do.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Geminid:
It would be an economic boom to a region that could really use it and may offset the decades of anger over restrictions on logging. Native Americans from several different tribes are finally getting some clout due to members of the Biden administration and Native members of Congress. It is long past time and I would prefer more Native Americans were active, voting Democrats. This is a group that is more rural and less loyal to any political party. I think they are the only rural voters who could be persuaded that Democrats best represent their interests. With the electoral college putting the fingers on the scale toward rural areas, they are an important, if frequently overlooked, constituency.
Emily B.
South Carolina is a lot warmer in January than Iowa.
Geminid
@Quinerly: That sounds really nice. Have you been to the Lowell Observatory, above Flagstaff? That’s a nice place just to walk around, and they put on various programs during the day and evenings.
trollhattan
@Martin: California was the last state to manage groundwater, but now we are. We also own and operate the State Water Project. You can be assured the state will be affecting how water is used–agricultural, industrial, municipal–going forward.
Feds have the CVP plus oversight of the Sacrament and San Joaquin rivers. They also have the Endangered Species Act, Safe Drinking Water Act and Superfund to administer and enforce, all of which agriculture runs afoul (heh) of.
The Colorado River Project water is going to be interesting to watch, given how badly oversubscribed it is. Everyone will be getting a haircut, but it won’t be equally distributed is my guess.
trollhattan
@Geminid: Just ask Ted Stephens.
Too soon?
Geminid
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: This is true. I would add that there are a lot of Black Democrats living in rural areas, from Delaware to Louisiana.
RSA
Even so, the Iowa caucuses only started in 1972. Another bit of history for context: In 1928, Iowa had 13 electoral votes, but that number has dropped steadily ever since. In 1972 it was down to 8, and now it’s down to 6. Iowans may be concerned about becoming irrelevant, but small states have always faced that issue.
pat
I saw Obama when he came to La Crosse WI. The security was amazing. Had to go through a screening in order to approach the site where he was speaking, armed guards on rooftops. Is it always so?
(I’ve been out for a walk, photographing the doggies that were also out for a walk. Two huge white Great Pyrenees that wanted their ears scritched were amazing.)
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Geminid: That is true.
trollhattan
@pat:
Maybe they had lost track of Scott Walker?
Security didn’t seem obvious at a Hillary rally I attended, but we also did not make it inside so IDK what happened at the doors. We all queued up (the line was hundreds of yards long, snaking around the campus) and there was no screening, outside.
A seated president’s security has to be orders of magnitude greater, but I’ve never had the opportunity. Still, Hillary is a magnet for hate the likes of which are rarely topped.
piratedan
@Quinerly: hope you can make it to Canyon De Chelly, the painted Desert/Petrified forest and Window Rock while you’re in AZ, the Hubbel Trading Post in Ganado is also kinda neat of you’re into historical places of note.
JPL
OT not sure if this has been mentioned but
Duke Energy showed almost 40,000 customers without power Sunday morning, when outdoor temperatures dipped to 40 degrees.
A State of Emergency is in effect in Moore County after a massive power outage caused by damage to substations by firearms. This is in North Carolina and I heard on CNN that it might be Thursday before power is restored. It’s God’s will apparently because there was a drag show. The whackos will rise again. link
JoyceH
Hey, have you folks been following this story in Moore County NC? The county has lost power and the reason is acts of vandalism at multiple power substations. The outage has made national news and police are ‘investigating’. Seems the substations were all shot up. No official word of motive, but on Twitter, story is that the intent was to interrupt a family friendly drag show some local venue was doing. But talk about overkill! Power will probably be out across most of the county for days, with all the disruptions that can entail. Hope they catch the creeps. This is basically terrorism.
JoyceH
@JPL: Ha! Great minds thinking alike.
pat
@trollhattan:
This took place outside, downtown. The specifics are a bit vague now, but I believe we had to go through essentially airport type screening. No water bottles, that sort of thing. But the armed guards on the rooftops…. wow.
eta,
Also, he must have already been a candidate.
JPL
@JoyceH: That story is crazy and other locations could be targeted. Maybe it is time to make sure you have extra food and water. geez
Maybe it deserves front page attention. I wonder what Adam thinks about it.
JPL
@pat: Before he formally announced he spoke outside at GA Tech and I went to listen to him. No security at that time, but I found him mesmerizing.
pat
and holy crap, they are shooting up power substations because of…… drag shows?
They have the guns and they are coming for…… people with whom they disagree. Scary shit!
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Geminid: I will also add that in a perfect world Alaskan Natives would become almost entirely Democratic and push Murkowski into the Independent column. I realize I’m just dreaming, but it would be nice. I have a feeling if she ever left the party, she would finally be free to be more pragmatic.
RedDirtGirl
Open thread: There is a cool fundraiser (ending today) for the n+1 foundation, which publishes a literary/cultural/political journal. Send in any amount, answer a cheeky quiz, and they send you a list of 10 book recommendations.
JPL
@pat: Did you read the link at 92? It is scary shit.
Fair Economist
The new primary schedule is a huge improvement, but it does seem a bit odd to have two adjacent Southern states so early, especially when one (SC) is a lost cause in Presidential elections for the time being. VA or NM or OR would seem better choices to me.
But, still much better.
Fair Economist
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Yeah, that’s dreaming. After her write-in win in 2010 Murkowski could absolutely have left the Republican party. She chose not to.
I think she’s already as pragmatic as she wants to be.
pat
@JPL:
And so it begins.
Leslie
@Yutsano: Outstanding. I hope lots of other states follow suit.
Eyeroller
@schrodingers_cat: I have two instant pots and an air fryer lid. I did not buy the combo because I think it’s an 8-liter IP and I didn’t want one that large (can’t store it). I use the air fryer lid with a 6-quart/liter IP.
The lid is a bit clunky and heavy compared to a regular air fryer (which I also have, but it’s a small one). But it works. One nice thing is you can cook in the IP and then do some finishing (like “broiling”) with the lid.
I use my Instant Pot(s) constantly but I like pot roasts and rice and such. It is very versatile; it’s a competent slow cooker as well as a pressure cooker.
frosty
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): Heh. Mine first was for Shirley Chisholm in the 72 California primary. … Because McGovern was too conservative. He got my vote in the general though.
Leslie
@West of the Rockies: NV is not representative of Western states in most ways, apart from its Latino population. But it’s probably much less expensive to campaign in than the rest of the West.
lowtechcyclist
@Martin:
I agree with your last sentence, which is why I disagree with your first two sentences.
All your proposal does is take the already-interminable year-plus of campaigning before the first primary, and add another three months to it.
That period needs to be shortened, not lengthened. But there’s no way to make the campaigns for the nomination start any later; the only thing that can be done is start winnowing the field earlier by moving a primary or two into the previous year. South Carolina in June 2027, NH/NV in September, Michigan in October, and Georgia in early to mid November. Then give everyone a break over the holidays, and have Super Tuesday in early February.
Leslie
@schrodingers_cat: We have a Ninja Foodi pressure cooker with an air fryer. We love it.
Spanky
@Mike in NC: Our local nursery is carrying Fraser Firs, as has always been the case. But this year we had to pay $150 for a 7 footer, about a 50% hike over last year.
I’ve heard from more than one traditional live-tree buyer that they switched to an artificial tree. I’m afraid the market for live trees is going to dry up and I’m going to wind up having to buy from some special boutique outlet half way across the country in a few years.
JPL
@Spanky: I purchased my first live tree since the pandemic started and prices soared. I purchase on a church lot that the proceeds go to a Methodist hospital. The men’s club drives to a farm in NC and selects the trees and then they pick them up the week before Thanksgiving. Anywho, the prices were really high. I took another approach and bought a 4 to 5 tree for $50.00. I’m not sure I’m going back to big trees. 7-8 fti were $165.00
CaseyL
I attended a Seattle primary caucus in the late 70s. Back then I thought they were great, because the caucuses also were where the party platform began to be written. It felt like a more meaningful involvement than just casting a vote.
But I was also a college student then, and spending a half-day or more caucusing wasn’t much of a hardship. And people were more willing to actually debate their candidates and positions: you could persuade people to change their minds.
Now there is no more debate, just people yelling at each other. And it is almost impossible to participate if you work.
I’m sad to see caucuses go, but just for nostalgic reasons. They’re no longer useful, or positive, experiences.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Fair Economist: The party has gone full MAGA since 2010. She was too moderate for the GOP back then, and she is definitely conservative. Now? She’s a full on RINO. If she doesn’t leave, its just a matter of time before they Cheney her.
zhena gogolia
JL Cauvin on TFG’s call to rescind the Constitution
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s34_zqOSc6w
Kent
An Alaska presidential first-in-the-nation primary in February? Surly you jest. And I say this as a former Alaskan. That would mean campaigning in December and January.
People might go door-to-door in Juneau and maybe Anchorage. But definitely not the rest of the state. The current Alaska primary is in April but it is just a media primary since none of the candidates ever go up there to campaign in person.
karen marie
I’m late to the party but I had to laugh at the idea that the media could be “forced” to acknowledge black people as a political force under any circumstance. We’ve had two elections in which Democrats outperformed Republicans yet they’re still exclusively interviewing Republican voters. Women? Minorities? Democrats? None of them matter.
The reaction to railroad workers trying to get sick days in their contracts tells you everything you need to know.
Everyday workers are so essential that Congress is willing to rush through legislation to block their very profitable corporate employers from being forced to provide a basic benefit. The media is either silent or backing the owners.
I predict now that despite the past track record for picking the eventual winner, future SC primary results will never be seen as important or determinative in the way that lily white NH has, or even at all.
Geminid
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: I think that Lisa Murkowski is in her final term and will vote however she wants to. She’s already bucked her party leadership twice on major issues, voting against Kavanaugh’s nomination and for Trump’s conviction. Murkowski will still be focused on Alaskan interests and she and Rep. Peltola will work together in that area.
SW
S. Carolina is a decent choice. But it is more important that the first primary was changed from Iowa. In the 21st century there is no way you can give a handful of white pig farmers veto power over who is the Democrat’s nominee for President. The very idea is ridiculous.
Jackie
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: TFG tried that this year. Didn’t work 😁
Geminid
@JoyceH: I bet they catch the knucklehead or heads who did this. And you are right that this is terrorism. It probably qualifies as such under federal law.
West of the Rockies
@Kent:
Alaska has a bit over 700,000 people. Seems like a lot of power to give, generously, 325K people.
Geminid
@Geminid: Now I see that Lisa Murkowski is 65 and will be 73 when she’s up for reelection in 2028. So maybe she is not in her last term.
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Alaska’s ranked choice voting system makes it harder for the radicals to knock Murkowski out. Unlike Liz Cheney and 3 other House Republican impeachers, Murkowski weathered the blowback from her vote to convict. Four other House Impeachers retired, and only two of the ten won reelection. These were in California and Washington state, which have “jungle” primaries.
lowtechcyclist
@JPL:
She sounds like the next Ashli Babbitt.
Geminid
I saw that Iowa Republican Senator Joni Ernst said that when they dropped Iowa, Democrats “gave middle America the middle finger.”
I thought, “Well, and…?”
Quinerly
@piratedan: thead is probably dead. No Canyon de Chelly on this trip. Been there 3 times, last time was when Covid was hitting the reservation in 2020. Have spent nights before in Window Rock and it’s my first stop on this trip. Also, cutting across Hopi lands and a stop in Tuba City. Most of this trip is a repeat of a 2017 trip, that included Hubbell Trading Post and Cameron, AZ. I love La Posada Hotel in Winslow. Excited about spending Christmas there and New Years in Flagstaff. Also spending some time in Sedona, Prescott, and Jerome. Coming back thru Payson and Show Lo. Thanks for piping in!
Quinerly
@Geminid: Lowell is on my list. Didn’t have time for it on my 2017 Flagstaff stop.
Kent
On the other hand, there might be some virtue to make the entire national press corps tromp around in the dark in bush Alaska all January in minus 40 degree weather with minus 80 wind chill factor.
We might even benefit from culling the herd by loosing some of them when they take a wrong turn and disappear into the wild.
Geminid
@Kent: …and contribute to the Fattest Bear contest!
“It was a banner year for bears…”
karen marie
@JPL: “Rainey, a former U.S. Army psychological operations officer” doesn’t speak well of screening or judgement of the US military.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Kent:
That would be so worth it.
rikyrah
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
Yeah👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@lowtechcyclist: Yeah I don’t really understand picking a State that the Democratic Candidate is destined to lose in the general election…there are plenty of purple to blue States that have similar demographics if you’re looking for that…PA, MI, GA, NY, CA for example.
Cmorenc
@TriassicSands:
I very briefly met bill clinton in the 1992 campaign – and experienced myself the astounding ability he has to make whomever he is talking with feel like they are the person that matters most in the universr to him for that moment, even in a very brief meeting. He put that ability to both positive use, and likely also to seduce women.