This morning, like yesterday morning, news began to trickle out that something had blowed up real good at a Russian airbase.
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 6, 2022
The Guardian has details:
A drone attack has set an oil storage tank on fire at an airfield in Kursk, the Russian region’s governor has said, a day after Ukraine appeared to launch audacious drone attacks on two military airfields deep inside Russian territory.
Roman Starovoyt, the governor of the Kursk region bordering Ukraine, said on the Telegram messaging app there were no casualties from the attack and the fire was “localised”.
Video footage posted on social media showed a large explosion lighting up the night sky followed by a substantial fire at the airfield 175 miles (280km) from the Ukrainian border. At daybreak a large column of black smoke was still visible above the site.
Much more at the link!
The Ukrainians have clearly decided, and rightly so, that they are going to prosecute legitimate Russian targets regardless of whether they’re in Russian occupied Ukraine or Russia itself. And they’ve decided to do so despite the US. From The New Voice of Ukraine:“The United States secretly modified the advanced HIMARS rocket launchers it gave Ukraine so they can’t be used to fire long-range missiles into Russia – a precaution the Biden administration says is necessary to reduce the risk of a wider war with Moscow,” WSJ writes.
HIMARS, however, are also capable of launching ATACMS missiles, which can hit targets 300 kilometers away. U.S. Department of Defense modified Ukraine-bound HIMARS to lock them out of being able to launch ATACMS, officials told WSJ.
The full US statement about escalation risks. Blinken also does not offer any elaboration on the report that the US modified HIMARS systems send to Ukraine to restrict the scope of longer-range attacks pic.twitter.com/el6nMsVE3W
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) December 6, 2022
I expect that this is a software modification that is reversible. Regardless, the exceedingly low risk tolerance of the Biden administration’s senior national security folks has now provided an information warfare and influence advantage to the Russians and the PRC. Whose proxies are all over social media talking about how unreliable an ally the US is. Promising X and then delivering it semi broken.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Glory to Ukraine!
Gentlemen, generals, officers, sergeants, soldiers!
Fellow Ukrainians!
Dear attendees!
Today is the day of our gratitude. This is exactly the meaning of December 6 – and it is forever. Now, this is the only way our people will celebrate the Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – with words of gratitude, feelings of gratitude, tears of gratitude.
I am sure, millions of times today “thank you” was said or simply thought in Ukraine.
I am thankful to the warriors of our army and all formations of the defense forces of Ukraine.
I am thankful to the parents of our warriors who raised real winners. That’s that – winners.
I am thankful to all the doctors and nurses who save the wounded heroes.
I am thankful to everyone who strengthens the defense and provides Ukrainian warriors with everything they need.
When the Day of the Armed Forces in a state is a holiday of gratitude, I am sure that such a state cannot be defeated and cannot be broken. And today we all see it for sure and have seen it again.
Dear attendees!
For 8 years and 286 days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been defending our beautiful state from the occupier, from Russian aggression. Thousands of Ukrainians gave their lives for the day to come when not a single occupier remains on our land and all our people are free again.
I ask you now to honor with a moment of silence the memory of everyone who died on the battlefield for the sake of our state, for the sake of Ukraine, and whose life became part of the heroic history of courage of Ukraine.
Fellow Ukrainians!
Today it is an honor for me to spend the whole day together with our defenders. In the morning, I was in the Donetsk region – I thanked the fighters who defend our state in the most dangerous and responsible directions. Those who are fighting in Svatove, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and other directions in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. I presented state awards and decorations to the warriors.
I was in the Kharkiv region today – I thanked the doctors who save our indomitable fighters. In the Kharkiv region, I presented awards to the fighters who participated in the liberation of the region and who continue to expel the occupiers from Ukraine.
Today we managed to bring home another 60 warriors who were in Russian captivity. We will continue to return our people and free everyone.
Now here, in the Mariyinsky Palace, are our heroes, relatives of our warriors, commanders and representatives of combat brigades and units who have just arrived from the front and are returning to the frontline again. Where it’s really hot. Where they really fight for our freedom, for our independence, for our children.
And I want to say to everyone present what is definitely in the heart of every Ukrainian today: I thank you! I thank absolutely all soldiers, all sailors, all sergeants, sergeant-majors, all officers, all heroes, generals and, of course, all your fathers and mothers, our dear, esteemed Ukrainian warriors.
I wish you all one thing – victory! To all of us. You deserve it! All our people deserve it. All our parents, our children deserve it. Our state and history deserve it. To finally gain victory.
Glory to the Armed Forces of Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
It’s Armed Forces Day in Ukraine today. President Zelensky goes all the way down to Slovyansk in Donetsk oblast to meet Ukrainian troops and wish them well on their day. In his full video address Zelensky calls UA military ‘the strongest, the most powerful, the best’. pic.twitter.com/v2eBctd56b
— Myroslava Petsa (@myroslavapetsa) December 6, 2022
I congratulate our service members on Armed Forces Day! Hundreds of thousands of brave men and women are protecting our nation from genocide. It is an honor for me to work with you in this difficult hour of the largest war of the 21st century. A war we will win. pic.twitter.com/uftodOXxku
— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) December 6, 2022
Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Izium and Bakhmut:
IZIUM AXIS/1945 UTC 6 DEC/ UKR forces have cut the H-26 HWY in the vicinity of Novoselivske. South of Svatove, FEBA conforms with the P-66 HWY, with UKR consolidating a lodgment N of Kremenna at the village of Chervonopopivka. pic.twitter.com/ILcUhwtbfG
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 6, 2022
BAKHMUT/1330 UTC 6 DEC/ RU continues to press sacrificial platoon sized attacks. Lodgments across the M-03 HWY in the N suburbs, and a salient west of the rail line at Andriviika have proven particularly costly as the terrain is dominated by UKR artillery. pic.twitter.com/BQ40NVEVLR
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 6, 2022
Germany and Poland appear to have some issues. From The Kyiv Independent:
Germany blocks Polish offer to place Patriot air defense systems in Ukraine
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
December 6, 2022 10:26 pmPolish Defense MinisterMariusz Blaszczak said on Dec. 6 that he was disappointed by the decision, made after speaking with his German counterpart Christine Lambrecht, as “the deployment of Patriots in western Ukraine would increase the security of Poles and Ukrainians.” He added that Poland would start working on stationing the German-provided air defense systems in Poland and integrating them into its command system.
After a missile struck the Polish village of Przewodow on Nov. 15, Lambrecht announced that Germany would deliver Patriot missile systems to Poland.
Blaszczak asked Germany to send the launchers to western Ukraine instead. The German government responded that such a decision would have to be approved by NATO.
Der Spiegel reported on Dec. 2 that Germany would supply Ukraine with seven additional Gepard anti-aircraft tanks to “take pressure off” the debate on Patriots.
Shashank Joshi of The Economist, which does not seem to use bylines, brings us a deep dive into the Russian offensive against Bakhmut:
Like many places in eastern Europe, Bakhmut bears the scars of history. In the 18th century Cossack rebels seized the town and held it for three years. In 1919 it was contested in the Russian civil war. In 1942 Nazis killed 3,000 Jews in Artyomovsk, as the town was then known. And it slipped briefly into the hands of separatists when Russia fomented a war in eastern Ukraine in 2014, before being recaptured. Now the latest struggle for Bakhmut is turning into one of the bloodiest battles of the current war.
Ukrainian offensives in Kharkiv in September and Kherson last month have put Russia on the defensive along vast front lines. The exception is Bakhmut, along with Avdiivka to the south. Virtually all of Russia’s remaining offensive power—which is not much—has been thrown at the town since August. That was originally because it anchors the southern end of a defensive line shielding the bigger cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. But the attacks now seem to be animated more by stubbornness than strategy. Even before the war, the town’s population was not much over 70,000.
The offensive has been led by the Wagner Group, a mercenary outfit, and supported by air power, copious artillery and waves of hapless infantry, reinforced in recent weeks by troops withdrawn from Kherson and by newly mobilised men. The regular army fights during the day. Wagner units, better funded and equipped with the latest tanks, come out at night. Elite airborne forces have joined in. For all that, the front lines have hardly budged.
In early December Russia captured three villages (Kurdyumivka, Ozarianivka and Zelenopillya) to the south of Bakhmut, with the aim of severing its supply lines to the west. But attacks to the north towards Soledar have proved fruitless. Russian progress has also come at eye-watering cost. Ukrainian artillery, starved of ammunition in the summer but now replenished by the West, has pounded the Russian attackers. Rochan Consulting, a firm that monitors the war, says that the urban terrain and Ukraine’s use of anti-tank squads has deterred Russia from employing tanks in the town, leaving infantry dangerously exposed.In many ways, the battle is a microcosm of the war and its politics. Bakhmut is not a strategic town. If Russia were to conquer it, it would not have the manpower to breach further lines of defence to the west. But Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, is desperate for his first victory in almost six months—the last one being Severodonetsk in late June—and happy to feed mobilised men into the meat grinder. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the ambitious head of Wagner, is thought to have promised Mr Putin that his forces can succeed where the regular army has failed. Mr Prigozhin’s personal and political fortunes may hinge on his ability to deliver.
More at the link!
One of the great things about tracking and reporting on the Ukraine war is the country's somewhat baffling tendency to give identical names to towns in extremely close proximity. To confuse invaders? https://t.co/7cd5qncmhw
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) December 6, 2022
What air defense doing:
Stay strong!
Stronger than steel! pic.twitter.com/Dvv6AnJXx0— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 6, 2022
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
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Alison Rose
I know Zelenskyy said in the Financial Times interview that he didn’t think of himself as brave, but when I saw the video earlier and realized he was in Donetsk…that is brave, and incredibly meaningful and moving. It’s clear this is a man who will not only never give up on his people, but will never let them think for a moment that he’s forgotten about them or doesn’t care about them.
Quite a contrast to the one on the other side.
Blinken’s statement frustrates me, although I suppose it’s some kind of diplomatic chess or whatever. Crimea is Ukraine, though, no matter if others don’t want to say so.
Thank you as always, Adam.
MomSense
I hope Ukraine will figure out how to “jailbreak” the HIMARS and go after more strategic installations in Russia.
Tribalcat is back – thank goodness and posting more videos and photographs.
N M
Boom today, as it were. Just from the side of Ukraine :D. Thanks, as always, @Adam!
Shalimar
@MomSense: Great news. I have been worried about her since you mentioned her absence.
dmsilev
Software lockouts on HIMARS seems like an odd thing to do. Just …don’t send longer range rockets if for whatever reason you don’t want the systems used for longer ranged attacks.
West of the Cascades
What’s the point of Germany sending more Gepards when I have read elsewhere that the ammunition manufacturer is in Switzerland and the Swiss won’t let the Germans send ammunition (alleging that would violate Swiss neutrality)? Have I completely misunderstood what I have read?
Sister Golden Bear
@Alison Rose:
FWIW, it’s pretty common for Medal of Honor winners and other civilians cited for heroism to say they didn’t think of themselves as brave, they were just stepping and doing what needed to be done. It never seems to be false humility, that truly is how they see things.
(Far, far further down heroism scale, numerous people have told me over the years that I was brave for transitioning. But again, from my POV, I just did what had to be done. So I get that mentality.)
Sister Golden Bear
@West of the Cascades: Hopefully the Ukrainians can source ammo from elsewhere. The Ukrainians do have some amount on hand, since they’ve used it effectively against Russian drone attacks.
patrick II
I don’t know how the Ukrainians are striking so far inside of Russia — but I am glad to see them do it. It is a necessary step for Ukraine if they are to ever end this war with the Russians out of Ukraine. As long as the Russians had a “safe zone” from which to lob missiles and reorganize their forces this war was going to go on as long as Putin was alive and in power.
Alison Rose
@Sister Golden Bear: I definitely don’t think it’s false humility or anything like that with him. He seems to strike the right tone between confidence and modesty, and it feels quite genuine.
Mallard Filmore
@MomSense:
Without the cooperation of the USA and it’s mighty intelligence network, Ukraine will be limited to static targets that can be identified with (semi) open resources. They will not get up-to-the-minute suggestions of moving military traffic, nor the coordinates.
Identify an oil storage farm as seen on Google Map, go for it. Want that train offloading tons of artillery shells at a new warehouse in Kursk? Sorry, its outside of Ukraine.
VOR
@dmsilev: I imagine someone was worried about Ukraine acquiring the longer range rockets on their own, not from the US. So it’s probably something which will recognize the longer range rockets and refuse to fire them.
jackmac
More boom, much more.
Make the Russians feel some of the same pain they have inflicted on Ukraine. Make them wary and worried where the next strike will hit inside Mother Russia. Make them wonder if the cost of Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in more killed and injured sons and treasure is worth it.
Adam L Silverman
@MomSense: Excellent news!
dkinPa
Adam, thank you for these reports. I usually don’t get to them until a day or so later, but I try to read (or at least skim) all that you post.
MomSense
@Adam L Silverman:
There were fresh interviews and photos today from a subway station in Kyiv where people were sheltering during the air raids today. It really is so important to hear from people who are living this war.
Kent
It might not be an issue of range, it might be an issue of targeting. In other words, the software restrictions might restrict use to Ukraine territory regardless of range so they can shoot it 300 miles as long as it lands in Ukrainian territory.
Amir Khalid
@dmsilev:
I think the issue was, the US didn’t want the missiles pointed in the direction of Russia, lest WWIII break out.
Poptartacus
Trump org guilty, warnock wins. Ukraine smacks the orcs upside the head. Happiness abounds
Rebelsdad (fka texasboyshaun)
@jackmac: To achieve maximum effect Russians should be afraid if they live anywhere between Karelia and Kamchatka.
A boy can dream. Rusia delenda est.
phdesmond
@MomSense: good news!
Alison Rose
@Poptartacus: It hasn’t been called yet, though?
japa21
@Alison Rose:
No, and won’t be for awhile.
dmsilev
@Alison Rose: No, it’s just the early vote being reported now, and it’ll take a fair amount of the day-of votes reporting before anyone tries calling the race. Few hours, most likely.
Anoniminous
@patrick II:
The only people who know how the Ukrainians struck deep in Russia are the Ukrainians. Speculation is they used an obsolete (1970 era) cruise missile: Tu-141.
Omnes Omnibus
@Sister Golden Bear: Things for which I have been complimented for being brave never seemed so to me. At the same time, things that I have done which tools a lot of guts are often seen as no big deal. It’s all in your own mind.
Alison Rose
BTW y’all, Saint Javelin has some great holiday ornaments! Plenty of them would work fine as just regular decor, too, for those of us with a Hanukkah bush instead of a Christmas tree.
Anoniminous
@MomSense:
I’d like to see some journalist do the William R. Murrow thing and broadcast live from Kyiv. Murrow’s London Blitz broadcasts were very important in changing US opinion in 1940.
YY_Sima Qian
Russian propaganda is claiming to have surrounded 5 Ukrainian brigades at Bakhmut, just making up BS to justify the pointless offensive there. We are now at the Hitler in the bunker, “Downfall”, level of delusion. The propaganda has filtered on to Chinese social media, but fewer & fewer people take it seriously anymore.
Shalimar
@dmsilev: Damned shame. I want the final result to be 55-44 so there is no doubt, but it will unfortunately narrow from the remaining 73% outstanding.
Alison Rose
@dmsilev: That’s what I thought.
Sherlock Hound
@dmsilev: Don’t forget, there may be lines at the polls still.
Jay
@West of the Cascades:
Germany was sourcing some of their ammo and weapons from Swiss Industries. The Swiss Government’s denial of Germany’s request to allow the shipment of Swiss manufactured 30mm AA rounds to Ukraine, (there are other suppliers as it is a fairly common round) has caused Germany to bar all Swiss Arms Manufacturers from German contracts.
dmsilev
@YY_Sima Qian: Are there even 5 Ukrainian brigades in that general area, never mind surrounded/destroyed/whatever?
I guess if you’re slinging unabashed propaganda it doesn’t have to be even vaguely plausible, but still.
Wyatt Salamanca
@Poptartacus:
Keeping my fingers crossed until it’s officially called for Warnock.
I wish Walker the best of luck in achieving his dream of becoming a werewolf.
Anoniminous
@Alison Rose:
Some of those ornaments are a wee bit edgy for the regular family Christmas Tree.
Adam L Silverman
@dkinPa: You’re most welcome.
Alison Rose
@Anoniminous: LOL that’s one of the ones I ordered! It’s just me and the cat, and trust me, she hears way worse than that out of me every single day.
Adam L Silverman
@Kent: It’s an issue of acquisition. The WSJ article is paywalled, but it’s clear that the concern is the Ukrainians would source even a limited amount of ATACMS from another NATO ally. Most likely Poland.
Wyatt Salamanca
@Shalimar:
Given that Walker is so monumentally unqualified to serve as a U.S. senator, it’s a fucking travesty that the outcome will likely be a razor thin margin of victory for Warnock.
Ella in New Mexico
Always amazed to hear the names of all these weapons we have supplied to Ukraine because I’ve spent the last 35 years hearing my husband tell me how their testing events went at White Sands, NM where they track like 99% of all of them with their radar.
Knowing that he had to go in at 2:30 am or 430am for days on end so that Ukraine now has them to protect themselves makes me proud.
brendancalling
I’m enjoying Russia’s complaints: “MOMMY, HE HIT ME BACK!”
I have learned my ex’s grandparents are in Russian-occupied territory—they’re old and don’t want to leave.
Fuck the orcs.
Alison Rose
@Wyatt Salamanca: At this point, I feel like the GOP could put someone in a literal coma on the ballot, and the final result would be 50.1 Non-Comatose Person to 49.9 Comatose Person.
Jay
Jay
Thread,
Anoniminous
@YY_Sima Qian:
Russian tactical intelligence has never been known for it’s accuracy. During Operation Citadel in 1943 Soviets claimed to have destroyed 70 Tiger-1s at the Battle of Prokhorovka when the 3 divisions of the SS Panzer Corp only had 43. Further, we know from German military records there was only 1 destroyed on the day of the battle.
Spanky
@Alison Rose: To be fair, my first election after moving to Maryland was for a comatose Representative, and she won handily.
Gladys Spellman was judging Halloween costumes at Laurel Mall a few days before the election when she suffered a massive heart attack. I think the only reason she lived was because it was in public and she got immediate attention.
Anyway, she never regained consciousness. After her final victory her seat was declared vacant and some guy won it. Steny SomethingOrOther.
Fun fact: she had her heart attack only a few hundred feet from where George Wallace was shot.
Wyatt Salamanca
@Alison Rose:
Sadly, you’re correct.
I only wish that I could outlive this dark age of stupidity that now engulfs us.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
in 1943, amongst Allied Soldiers, “every tank was a Tiger”.
Yuri at Tank Archives, http://www.tankarchives.ca/ runs an occasional blog post subtitled “Cheating at Statistics”, where he compares “claims” from one side vs records from the other.
Basically, everybody over reported or in some cases out and out lied. (eg. Battles that never happened against enemies that were never there).
Freemark
I wonder if the MLRS M270s that other countries sent have had the restrictions put on them as the American HIMARS have?
Jay
YY_Sima Qian
@Anoniminous: Overestimating enemy losses is pervasive in warfare, both due to fog of war & propaganda. However, none of the maps show that the Russian forces have surrounded anything at Bakhmut. I am not even sure 5 Ukrainian brigades can squeeze into the Bakhmut area. So the claim of having surrounded 5 Ukrainian brigades there doesn’t pass the basic smell test.
Jay
Gin & Tonic
Going to get a bit in the weeds here, feel free to move along.
TV Rain (“dozhd” or Дождь in russian) is an “independent” TV channel based in russia, supposedly the “good russians.” They were recently banned in Latvia for violating Latvian broadcast guidelines. Today (yesterday now) they had an administrative hearing there (in Latvia) to review the ban. They showed up to the hearing with no Latvian-speakers, apparently assuming that everyone would understand russian. The Latvian administrative body, however, said the hearing would be in Latvian. So it was cancelled.
So TV Rain posted a whiny infographic pointing out that they had lasted 12 years in “totalitarian russia” but only 4.5 months in “free Europe.” For each of those statements, the graphic background was a silhouette of the relevant area. The silhouette of russia they used included Crimea and the four provinces they announced the illegal annexation of two months ago.
So even the “liberal” “good russians” believe that russia includes portions of Ukraine.
Sorry, z_g, there’s no such thing as “good russians.”
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay:
Then there is the Gulf of Tonkin incident, a phantom battle that helped to accelerate US involvement in the Vietnam War.
Anoniminous
@Jay:
If you went by anecdotal accounts there were 834,291 Tiger tanks at Normandy. There’s an official Report from a Canadian intelligence officer. He stood in front of a knocked-out Panther asking soldiers as they marched by what type of tank it was. To a man they said, “Tiger.”
The Soviet number at Kursk was the number in official reports and used in historical accounts until quite recently. And understandable. If your boss is a paranoid homicidal psychopath telling him “The Panzer IIIs are burning” won’t get you invited to his dacha for a bottle of vodka.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: I didn’t follow TV Rain, but I’ve been reading a few Russian exiles via Josh Marshall’s Twitter lists, and it’s been so fucking blatant that they really aren’t willing to take Ukraine’s side fully. The real tell was the whole “ban RU tourist visas” shitstorm this summer: these “liberal” exiles were all het up about it, when it changed nothing about actual asylum for refugees.
I specifically remember this guy Leonid (?) Ragozin. Shit, the man needs to grow a conscience.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Perhaps TV Rain is part of Putin’s managed opposition.
However, at the end of the day, I am not sure “good” & “bad” are useful framing. It is well known that even the anti-Putin liberals (whether they are real liberals or “liberals”) are staunch nationalists, such as Navalny. Even the liberal leaning people in China will support attacking Taiwan if the latter ever goes for de jure independence, and they do not believe the Uyghurs or Tibets have the right to self-determination. (Other Chinese “liberals” are really libertarians, & thus not surprising that they support Trump for pretending to be vociferously anti-CCP.) Plenty of “good” Democrats in the US and “good” Labor in the UK supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The Polish government that is strongly pro-Ukraine & anti-Russia is also increasingly illiberal at home. People who are support good domestic policies can also support bad foreign policies, & vice versa.
I think the relevant question is which internal Russian opposition (liberal or otherwise) is genuine, do they have a realistic chance of overthrowing Putin, if they do so are they likely to end the war, & if they stop the fighting will they support withdrawal to pre-Feb. 2022 de facto line of control or pre-2014 sovereign borders.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
126 Tiger I’s, as best as anybody can make out, were “in” Normandy, about 50% were immobile or under repair. All combined, the Allies initially claimed in “official” reports, 279 destroyed or damaged.
It didn’t help that the visual profile of the Tiger was significantly similar to the Tiger I. On the other hand, the Nazi’s claimed to have killed 50% more Allied tanks than were ever deployed in the Normandy battles.
Keep in mind, the first deployment of the Tiger I on the Russian Front was in mid August, 1942, at Mga, when 4 were deployed, and 3 immediately broke down. The Soviets never noticed them. They learned about the Tiger from the British in November,1942, (not quite accurate intelligence reports), but didn’t capture one for study until January 15th, 1943.
Jay
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TV_Rain
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: Very good Twitter thread on TV Rain and the role of the opposition here: https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1600062305370112002
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
I’ll leave aside the UK: In the US, please name names. And in doing so, make a distinction between those who did so because they *actually* supported that war (like Holy Joe Lieberman, whom most here would not classify as “good”) and those who supported the war b/c they feared that to not do so would end their political viability (like Kerry & Clinton). I’m pointing this out b/c there was a *robust* debate in Congress and many Dems came out against the war. Someone as close to the center of the Dem Caucus as Nancy Pelosi said this: https://pelosi.house.gov/sites/pelosi.house.gov/files/pressarchives/releases/prIraqResolution100302.htm
The House Democratic Whip.
phdesmond
@Alison Rose:
as to Crimea, are you aware of this?
Chetan Murthy
@phdesmond: Kamil Galeev, a Kazan Tatar, would approve. And he’s convinced me: the oppressed peoples of the Russian Empire deserve their freedom, deserve the right to flourish, deserve to not live under the boot of Moscow and St. Petersburg, and for this the Russian Empire must die.
dr. luba
Patron:
Tssssss……..Let me guess.
Look directly at me.
А lovely enchanting sun?
Did I get it right?
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy:
Why should that distinction be made? Between malice & cowardice? 81 D reps & 29 D Senators voted for the war authorization, knowing full well that GWB was going to war. In doing so, they gave bi-partisan cover to the neocons.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
WTF? Really? Really? Really? You wanna FUCKING GO THERE?
There’s A FUCKING DIFFERENCE between people who need to OPERATE WITHIN GOVERNMENT and EXILES who have intentionally set themselves against THE GOVERNMENT.
Really. Jesus FUCKING H CHRIST.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: When even those who set themselves against the government, are unable to reject Russian Imperialism, it means that the entire culture is rotten. Compare and contrast with the US (and BTW, in the UK), where the protests against the Iraq War were GIGANTIC. And OBTW, the police didn’t arrest them all, either.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks for the link. TV Rain now being Latvian rather than Russia does matter. They don’t have the excuse of fearing oppression from Putin.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: But the fact that there was a “robust” debate among Democrats as you say, on an issue such as the Iraq war (on which, intellectually-speaking, there should have been no such debate), should suggest to you by analogy that there should be space in Russia for a divergence of views on the role of Russian nationalism in Russian politics, short of Putinism, as @YY_Sima Qian is in fact suggesting, if you read him carefully.
We cannot tear down and reconstruct Russian politics in our own image, or in that of any Western European nation. And <looks around to make sure that KSMiami isn’t foaming yet> we aren’t going to totally deindustrialize and pastoralize Russia for generations in some kind of revival of the Morgenthau Plan for postwar Nazi Germany. Any hope for a post-Ukraine war, post-Putin politics in Russia is going to be constructed from available Russian political materials, whether we like them or not.
More than likely we won’t like them. That means someone like Navalny, or perhaps figures sympathetic to TV Rain. But they will be infinitely preferable to Putin. They will govern a chastened and weakened Russia. Their agenda will be positively anti-Putinistic. And in the real world, that will be a win.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: No, the problem is that even Russian “liberals” are imperialists. And that’s in contrast to the West, where there *at least* a robust dispute about whether imperialism is a good thing or not. In Russia, it’s clear that there’s no dispute, except for a few rabid outliers.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
This is why Kamil Galeev is right: the Russian Empire must die.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I did not say all Ds, I know fully well that most of the rank & file Ds were against the war & plenty marched on the streets (& in the UK, too), ultimately to no avail. Nevertheless, many members of Congress voted for the war authorization, knowing what it would lead to. If they voted for the authorization not because they believed Saddam presented an imminent danger, but were afraid of losing their next elections, then yes, they acted out of cowardice.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I adduced the House Dem Whip. You’ll need to provide some names. Some. Names.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: In this universe where you and I live, it isn’t going to. At least not in the sense that you intend, in the lifetime you plan to live, with the catharsis you plan to enjoy.
I’m sorry. I’m as enraged at the Russians as anyone here, but now it’s time to take in a bit of historical realism. We don’t get to shape the world after our wishes and dreams.
In the best possible outcome of this war, Ukraine recovers its historical territories in the Donbas and Crimea, Putin’s teeth are ejected from the front of his skull at the speed of sound assisted by bits of the back of his skull, and Russia does in fact lose a great deal of hegemonic control over its current empire. But that empire is huge, and has a lot of historical inertia, and comprises a lot of people and a lot of belief. “Poof” is not one of the realistic outcomes.
The realistic outcomes that we should be rooting for are the ones in which the Russian politicians who are least toxic wind up in charge of the version of Russia that is least threatening to the kind of rules-based order that the rest of us would like to enjoy. That is the baseline most optimistic achievable goal that we can hope to set. Anything more than that — Russian empire vanishing, Russians becoming democrats etc. — is movie material.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
TV Rain, Leonid Ragozin, and many other Russian exiles do not have this excuse.
Tony G
@Wyatt Salamanca: The normal career trajectory for a guy like Walker would have been doing color commentary on NFL broadcasts starting about 25 years ago. But his brain injuries do not make that possible. Instead, almost half the voters in his state thought that he’d make a great senator.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: All those debates in DC sure stopped so many US military interventions abroad. Otherwise, the US would have been at war for every year of its existence, & there would not have been those 17 precious years at peace.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy:
Surely you can search the roll call on the vote for war authorization.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authorization_for_Use_of_Military_Force_Against_Iraq_Resolution_of_2002
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: You’re moving the goalposts again.
Now you’re talking about the actions of the government. But you started by arguing that the Russian *opposition* was akin to the US opposition (to the Iraq War). And this is patently false. Patently. False. There was a robust opposition to the Iraq War, both inside and outside government. There is no such opposition to Putin’s War on Ukraine: even exile liberals are imperialists.
Bill Arnold
@Chetan Murthy:
If the Russian Federation collapses (a personal low key goal, BTW), or pieces separate from it, all the pieces will still have some sort of governance. I have not found any public modeling of this that deserves any presumption of predictive value. Very probably (but not certainly) it would be rather chaotic, and in the event of such a collapse or partial collapse, the nuclear weapons and other WMDs will need very focused unwinding, similar to the attention such weapons got with the collapse of the Soviet Union. But that’s a detail, though very important.
bookworm1398
@62. I think the only distinction that matters is who voted against the war (Pelosi/Clyburn) vs who voted for it (Clinton/Biden) I’m not going to try to judge them on their inner feelings since those are unknowable.
Russian dissolution good or bad depends on what comes after and I can’t guess what that will be. Let’s focus on winning the war.
Bill Arnold
@Chetan Murthy:
There was robust opposition, but the outcome and rough timing was certain. (Certain enough that I made a bet (1 quarter dollar, plus bragging rights) late 2002 that the invasion would be after Valentine’s Day 2003.) I was opposed, because it was clear that the weapons inspectors were finding nothing and that the administration was telling highly improbable stories (like WFT? mobile bio-weapons labs?) . But people were being punished professionally and politically (and socially) by the warmongering majority.
Chetan Murthy
@Bill Arnold:
Yes, but *in Russia*, while the outcome and timing was certain, there *was not* a robust opposition, and Russian “liberals” are *not* comparable to American Dems of that era. For two reasons:
YY is arguing that RU “liberals” are kinda like Dems of the 2002 era. Which is both a SLUR and false.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: Let’s remember 2000, when so many smarter-than-thou leftists said “there’s not a dime’s worth of difference” between Gore and Bush. And what that led to.
glc
@YY_Sima Qian: I’ll just note in passing that I admire your patience (and, in other contexts, attention to detail) and leave the matter there.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: Here is the Moscow Times’ story on Latvia’s decision to suspend Dozhd’s license.
I mean to add as little heat as I can to this matter. However the trouble appears to be largely about whether journalists are allowed to say stupid or wrong things, without dire consequences.
Publishing a map of Ukraine that shows Crimea as part of Russia is stupid and wrong. It shouldn’t have cost Dozhd their licence. That’s what happens in Russia.
In my opinion, this episode shows that Latvia’s recovery from post-Soviet trauma is incomplete. The benefits of NATO membership should be part of a package with a set of democratic values. We already have a problem in Hungary with Orban. It would be troubling if this problem were allowed to grow simply because of the circumstantial political convenience of the current situation.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: It’s 1940. An American newspaper publishes a map of Europe with all Nazi-occupied territories marked as *part of Germany*. Please to explain whether this is a mistake, or unacceptable and giving aid and comfort to the enemy.
And remember that the only reason Latvia and other CEE nations aren’t actively at war with Russia at this point, is their NATO membership. In every other way other than *active* hostilities, they’re at war with Russia. They’re not just providing weapons and money, but also repairing Ukraine’s weapons.
bookworm1398
@ Carlo 87.
My understanding is that Europe generally has more restrictions on speech than USA. Eg, Germany passed a law banning display of Z symbols. Within European context, is Latvia action here an outlier? Genuine question, I don’t know
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: I would think that it is perfectly obvious.
It is not 1940. It is 2022. What this entire dispute is about, writ large, is a set of democratic norms. If it is not about those, it is about nothing.
I tried very hard to make that exact point in The Resumption of History, although admittedly it took very long to get there. For the sake of this discussion, we could say “Latvia made a bargain: NATO guarantees are not a freebie.”
Less brutally, however, we could also say that Latvia is not isolated or alone, and can afford to indulge democratic freedoms that do not endanger its security in any tangible way. The Dozhd broadcasts that earned the network a license suspension were clearly harmless from a security standpoint, but inflamed nationalistic sensibilities at a difficult time. That is the only reason for the sanction against the network.
And that is an utterly improper reason for sanctioning a news network in a democracy. If the US government did that to FOX News, I would contribute funds to the FOX legal defense. Because then I would conclude that US democracy was truly under siege. Even though I would gladly serve on the jury of Rupert Murdoch’s assassin just to acquit irrespective of facts.
We can’t defend our Republic by undermining the very things that make it worth defending in the first place. And if we are going to extend our security guarantees to our allies, then we should extend very definite expectations concerning our political values as well. One of these days this needs to be a conversation that we have with Orban. And we can’t have it if we make convenient exceptions.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Honestly, I don’t know what you are arguing over. My point in the reply to G&T was that “good” & “bad” are not necessarily useful framing, as people can advocate “good” domestic policies while advocating “bad” foreign policies, & vice versa. Russian liberals, Chinese liberals, Ds who voted for war authorization against Iraq, the Polish ruling party, are all examples.
I did not make any assumptions as to the nature of TV Rain’s opposition to Putin, & acknowledged that many/most Russian opposition figures (including those who are against the 2022 invasion of Ukraine) are nevertheless staunch nationalists. If there is a parallel to Ds in the US during GWB years, it is to those that vociferously defended the welfare state, the regulatory state & liberal social values from R assault, but also fell in line to vote for the war authorization in 2002, because they believed in a “robust” (euphemism for aggressively militaristic) US posture in the world. The parallel between Russian liberals is not w/ Ds in general (most of whom were against the 2003 invasion of Iraq), but those Ds in opposition at the time (as in, not in the majority) that nonetheless supported the neocon military adventures, & support hegemonic/militarist US foreign policy in general.
I think Hilary Clinton is such a D figure, but I still gladly voted for her in 2016. I am critical of many aspects of Biden’s China policy, because I fear these policies are (possibly unintentional) reinforcing the dangerous Cold War dynamic between the US & China. I will still craw over broken glass to vote for Biden over any R candidate. I would vote for any D over any R w/o hesitation, including Sinemachin (though I will probably throw up afterwards). However, just as there is a huge difference between Ds & Rs, we have to acknowledge that there is overlap between the two when it comes to bad foreign policy.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: You’re continuing to slur Democrats. In Russia, aside from a vanishingly small number of people, all elite opinion is imperialist. All of it. This is not true in the US, nor in the UK. This difference matters. And now to turn (again) to TV Rain: they’ve taken positions that are quite contrary to Latvian law and policy. Here’s an example:
Read the whole thread. And again: emigre Russian living in West, that continue to act and speak as Russian imperialists are enemies. They give aid and comfort to our enemies, the enemies of our Republic.
I remember my fucking Oath of Naturalization.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I am actually very sympathetic to the Latvian decision here, as my personal preference on free speech is closer to European norms (& I believe the US norms has actually been proven self-destructive in the modern environment for discourse). Showing Russian occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian territory suggests that perhaps their constructed reality is not so different from Putin’s. It would have been more debatable if the occupied territories were shown in a different shade of color as the Russian Federation’s recognized borders, or even if the only territories occupied in the current invasion are shown that way.
However, as you say, these are the kinds of people the world may well have to deal w/ even in a post-Putin Russia. As long as they are willing to withdraw to pre-Feb. 2022 borders, or better yet, pre-2014 sovereign borders, that is a win for everyone. On that we completely agree. (Not sure about TV Rain & its backers specifically, as they could be Putin’s managed opposition.)
Of course, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could make that moot by driving the Russians back to pre-2014 borders.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: more from that thread. but really, read the whole thing.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Explain to me how I “slurred” the Ds that voted to authorize war against Iraq, & supported all of those other destructive US foreign military adventures. Or do you believe only Rs advocate aggressive US foreign policy?
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: 1. There is no Russian opposition to their imperialism. This is evident.
2. There was even then a large opposition among Dem elected officials, to the Iraq War. The Democratic House Whip (the center of the fucking caucus) was such an opponent.
There’s a difference here. And I remind you that you started off by excusing TV Rain’s behaviour as somehow OK b/c hey, the Dems did it too.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: You know what, you are welcome to live in your Manichaean world. Have a nice day.
Hangö Kex
@Jay:
re: Gepard (35 mm Oerlikon) ammo: Norwegian Nammo makes them (and is rumored to be busy churning them out for Ukraine). https://www.nammo.com/product/our-products/ammunition/medium-caliber-ammunition/35-mm-series/
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
@Chetan Murthy:
Strike #3 for Latvian Authorities was a RAIN anchor’s statement that RAIN was “helping” FSRU Soldiers and “mobliks”, actively taking part in Russia’s invasion and war on Ukraine, to the point of a Federal Investigation to see what that “help” was, as it is unclear.
RAIN’s post kerfuffle statements alludes that it was morale and vague assistance towards them “leaving” the war and the FSRU military. That Anchor’s statement at the time implied that RAIN’s assistance was food, clothing and medical supplies. It may have been nothing more than RAIN publicising the situation of Mobliks to a Russian audience.
There has been an investigation launched by Latvian Prosecutors, (they have a Napoleanic role, akin to a USAG) to find out what RAIN was actually doing for FSRU military forces in Ukraine.