I mean, we're laughing now but let's see in a couple of months. Anyway, even when it's silly, invention for mitigation that works is good.
Add a mini-HEPA filter in there and you have a serviceable Hoerger-Wu PAPR tent.
Sign: Please do not get too close to me@michael_hoerger pic.twitter.com/owhpWI8885
— Naomi Wu ???? (@RealSexyCyborg) December 14, 2022
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These are two unhappy people.
I can't blame them, because they're right:
It will come back and bite us. pic.twitter.com/eKz6pRdCut— tern (@1goodtern) December 17, 2022
Cities across China scrambled to install hospital beds and build fever screening clinics on Tuesday as authorities reported five more deaths and international concern grew about Beijing's surprise decision to let the virus run free. https://t.co/KoDNWad3ke
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) December 20, 2022
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When they spotted us filming staff quickly became physically aggressive, pushing us and grabbing hold of our camera gear.
At another large crematorium we saw multiple uniformed and plain clothed police officers ushering hearses off the street.— Leo Lord-Jones (@leolordjones) December 19, 2022
Thread:
Shanghai is turning into the Ghost Town Beijing has already been for a week. Everybody seems either sick or staying in to avoid Covid.
This is a usually busy shopping street today: pic.twitter.com/PQciM2XEjc
— Christian Petersen-Clausen (@chris__pc) December 19, 2022
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Thread:
Chinese health authorities say they just started to conduct a complete survey ???? of covid high risk groups NOW (cross ref health records & vaccination record, home visits to verify info if necessary etc)
that's yet another thing that hasn't been done in the past 3 years pic.twitter.com/c1djypudag— Chenchen Zhang ??????? (@chenchenzh) December 17, 2022
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Well, it’s based on an MIT theory…
Clever WeChat app to detect if you have COVID from the sound of your cough based on this: https://t.co/4yPbFCqTTw
It's a good idea with RAT tests in very short supply at the moment, and there's a feature to let you submit training data. With so many people using it, could work. pic.twitter.com/wXnqR9fmTR— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) December 18, 2022
When you consider that much of the new data on bivalent booster protection is based on comparison with people who have had multiple shots and boosters, and infections, it's particularly impressivehttps://t.co/sAxR8IxKgr
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 17, 2022
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Link to graphhttps://t.co/Cze8bZxwXr
Link to 94% of people age 65+ had 2 shots and only 36% have had a recent boosterhttps://t.co/WWoVjw5Bll
Link to the new data on booster impact reduction of hospitalization age 65+https://t.co/sAxR8IxKgr— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 18, 2022
Thread (read the whole thing!)
New Poll: Voters support requiring everyone to mask in indoor public spaces in order to combat another #COVID surge 🧵 pic.twitter.com/1baYgqXvHk
— Matthew Cortland, they/them (@mattbc) December 19, 2022
Opposition to indoor masking, an effective public health intervention to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, is driven by partisanship.
82% of Democrats support it, 54% of Independents –– but only 29% of Republicans. https://t.co/dA5G8teIhZ
— Matthew Cortland, they/them (@mattbc) December 19, 2022
Let’s shift our focus from ‘what the virus is doing’ to what WE should be doing. @DrMikeRyan pic.twitter.com/Wevk4ZGxXO
— Mrigank Shail, MD (@mrigankshail) December 17, 2022
Reader Interactions
33Comments
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New Deal democrat
Biobot updated yesterday, and it’s a mixed bag. Nationwide there was a slight increase, but confined to the Northeast (by far the center of the current wave) and South. There was a small decline in the Midwest, and a larger one in the West.
There were 67,200 confirmed cases nationwide, half of last year’s 150,000 at this time (the beginning of the Omicron wave), and only about 30% of the 220,000 years ago.
Hospitalizations continued to increase to 34,300, vs. 60,000 one year ago and 105,000 two years ago.
Deaths are at 403, vs. 1,300 last year and 2,700 two years ago.
Confirmed cases increased mainly in the South in the past week, slightly in the Northeast, were steady in the Midwest, and declined in the West.
The current wave is the highest in PR, NY, MT, FL, NJ, IL, RI, CA, KY, and AZ. The jurisdictions with the fewest cases per capita are AK, VT, ID, DC, HI, ND, WA, WY, ME, and GA. If there is any theme, it is that there are more cases in States to which seniors retire, and fewer in the coldest rural States.
Everything is relative of course, but the current situation seems like really good news (presumably due to 90%+ of the population being at least partially vaccinated, and/or generating some resistance from past infection). The current wave, as the new Alphabet soup variants are reaching their zenith, is a pale imitation of the early winter waves in the past two years, and it is growing very slowly rather than exponentially. It is a shame that so many seniors remain under-vaccinated, because the death rate would probably be cut in half if they were up to date on their boosters.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 721 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 5,018,584 cases. 718 of these new cases were local infections; three new cases were imported. It also reported two deaths, for an adjusted cumulative total of 36,808 deaths – 0.74% of the cumulative reported total, 0.74% of resolved cases.
13,717 Covid-19 tests were conducted yesterday, with a positivity rate of 5.3%.
There were 15,541 active cases yesterday, 195 fewer than the day before. 685 were in hospital. 44 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 23 confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 914 more patients recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,966,235 patients recovered – 99% of the cumulative reported total.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 1,149 doses of vaccine on 19th December: 66 first doses, 36 second doses, 295 first booster doses, and 752 second booster doses. The cumulative total is 72,539,961 doses administered: 28,118,641 first doses, 27,529,793 second doses, 16,274,607 first booster doses, and 616,920 second booster doses. 86.1% of the population have received their first dose, 84.3% their second dose, 49.8% their first booster dose, and 1.9% their second booster dose.
New Deal democrat
A few months ago, when large demonstrations rocked some Chinese cities, it seemed to me that Xi Jinping was rattled, perhaps fearing that he might lose the Mandate of Heaven. Well, if COVID infects hundreds of millions and kills 1% of China’s population (12,000,000 people!) in the next few months, that sure seems like an excellent way to lose the Mandate. I wonder what social unrest might look like then? (Despite loving history, I am an ignorant foreigner, but I can’t help but wonder).
YY_Sima Qian
Standard disclaimer: the reported numbers in China no longer track reality, not even the underlying trend. The numbers to watch are active severe/critical cases, new deaths, & vaccinations. Alas, the currently reported severe/critical cases & deaths are not credible, either.
There are now Chinese state media & social media reports concerning hospitals in Beijing buckling under strain. Health care capacity has been reduced due to rapid transmission among medical staff, and there are many anecdotes of doctors working even w/ 39 C fever. Hospitals ERs, regular wards, & ICUs are overcrowded. A wave of increased deaths has also clearly arrived in Beijing, based on anecdotal evidence on Chinese social media of crowded morgues & funeral homes, although some of that is also the impact of morgues & funeral homes shorthanded due to infections. Health care experts are expecting the peak of serious/critical cases in the city in the coming 1 – 2 weeks.
The situation is less clear in the other parts of the country. We know hospitals are also overcrowded in Wuhan, but Beijing really does seem to be the hardest hit, even though the city (along w/ Shanghai) has the best &n most numerous hospitals in the country. A few speculations that I have read is that Beijing’s elders are under vaccinated/boosted compared to national average, people in Beijing did not expect the city to reopen as quickly (since throughout the pandemic the city had some of the toughest restrictions to protect the capital), & that the BF.7 strain prevalent in the city has worse symptoms.
In the meantime, anecdotes suggests that Beijing’s social activity is already starting to recover, as subway lines are becoming crowded again during morning/afternoon commute. Likely because many people have already recovered & going to work again. Shopping malls are still relatively quiet, but restaurants are starting to fill up at the busiest districts. Here is Wuhan, there has been a noticeable improvement in logistics, express parcel delivery, & take out/grocery delivery, as workers either recovered from their infections or improved enough to work. Not yet to pre-exit wave levels, though. The exit tsunami will have an enormous peak, but will also come and go very quickly.
Anyway, the official numbers:
On 12/19 Mainland China reported 2,656 new domestic confirmed & 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 5 new domestic deaths. Mainland China reported 66 new imported confirmed & 0 new imported suspect cases.
Overall in Mainland China, 2,017 confirmed cases recovered (89 imported) & 61,019 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 35,976 active confirmed cases in the country (467 imported), 276 in serious/critical condition (all domestic, + 23 in the past 24 hrs.), & 19 suspect cases (all domestic). 291,547 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine. There have been 5,242 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
As of 12/19, 3,458.412M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 921K doses in the past 24 hrs. As of 12/13, 1,307.222M individuals have taken at least 1 shot (or 92.73% of the total population), 1,274.018M are fully vaccinated (90.37% of the total), & 815.718M boosted (57.86% of the total). Of the > 60 y.o. cohort, 240.217M individuals have taken at least 1 shot (or 91% of the cohort), 228.644M are fully vaccinated (86.6% of the cohort), 184.179M boosted (69.76% of the cohort). Of the > 80 y.o. cohort, 27.73M individuals have taken at least 1 shot (or 77.5% of the cohort), 23.757M are fully vaccinated (66.4% of the cohort), 15.153M boosted (42.35% of the cohort).
On 12/19, Hong Kong reported 14,982 new positive cases, 870 imported & 14,112 domestic, & 33 new deaths. There have been 11,243 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
On 2/19, Macao reported 90 new cases & 3 new deaths (all w/ underlying conditions, 1 unvaccinated). There have been 13 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
On 12/19, Taiwan added 17,131 new positive cases, 51 imported & 17,080 domestic. There were 18 new deaths. There have been 14,931 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
YY_Sima Qian
On a more personal note, I fever broke on Saturday. I am free of most symptoms, except some coughing & nasal congestion, & the slight drowsiness associated w/ the nasal congestion. I am still slightly positive on the RAT. The rest of the family have largely recovered, too. My wife still has worse coughing & nasal congestion than myself or my in-laws. Unfortunately, my wife’s grandparents (both > 90 y.o.) were just infected yesterday. Only moderate symptoms so far, but there are no beds available in any of the near by hospitals in Wuhan. Both are fully vaccinated & boosted. We are keeping our fingers crossed. Although Paxlovid is approved in China, & in mass production under license from Pfizer, demand is far outstripping supply. I doubt we will be able to obtain any for them.
lowtechcyclist
Republicans care so little for human life.
kalakal
@YY_Sima Qian: Glad to hear you and most of your family are on the mend. Hoping for the same for your wife and her grandparents
Lacuna Synecdoche
Leo Lord-Jones via Anne Laurie @ Top:
Reuters:
Given our own history with CoViD in the US, and the lower vaccination rates among older people in China, along with the lower efficacy of their most commonly used vaccines, my guess would be that China will get a lot closer to the 4-8 million range through 2023, assuming they continue with the current strategy.
P.S, I hope I’m wrong.
Soprano2
I have to say I never imagined China would go from a strict zero Covid policy to a let it all go policy in a matter of a relative few days! I always thought it was unreasonable to believe they could continue “zero Covid” forever, but what’s happening there is exceedingly reckless and so, so sad. It seems like a repeat of New York City in April 2020, only now we know a lot more about what’s actually happening, and we have vaccines to protect people from hospitalization and death.
Soprano2
@lowtechcyclist: And yet they say they care a lot about potential human life, enough to make it impossible for women to get care for a miscarriage! That is so, so stupid.
Percysowner
After all this time dodging the virus, I finally got COVID. I tested positive on Saturday, although symptoms started Friday. I’m vaccinated and boosted out the yazoo, so it has been pretty mild, congestion, mild sore throat, fever, fatigue. I’m past the worst of it now. I’m pretty sure I got it from my granddaughter, who is in daycare. They try to have the kids outside as much as possible, but they had to go inside one week and even with her being masked, I think that’s where it happened. My poor kids, my GD is getting over it, my daughter and son-in-law are getting over it. Even the 4 month old baby, my grandson who is too young to be vaccinated, got it. I can’t even go over and help right now. I’ll be glad when this is over.
Keep on masking, guys. It’ s no fun being sick.
Matt McIrvin
I’m not convinced this is true. The case rates are much lower, but the case rates at this point are fantasy numbers–people are only getting tested if they’re sick, and the tests are mostly rapid antigen tests. Boston-area wastewater numbers and hospital admissions are actually pretty close to what we were seeing going into the big Omicron wave last year.
Locally the mid-December spike seems to have hit another peak rather than continuing to exponentiate, but it was noisy last year too. I think it’s too early to tell whether we will have a repeat of last winter.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
115 new cases on 12/16/22.
100 new cases on 11/17/22.
118 new cases on 12/18/22.
96 new cases on 12/19/22.
Deaths at 2115, up 15 from last week. Not good.
As for hospital beds, only 2% are actually available, including 9 whole ICU beds out of 212.
New Deal democrat
@Matt McIrvin: Let’s look at Biobot:
Now – 941 copies/mL
1 year ago – 1,621 copies/mL
2 years ago – 725 copies/mL
Maybe 2 years ago there weren’t so many locations reporting, but one year ago the system was already up and running very well.
So at very least Biobot appears to confirm that we are in much better shape than one year ago.
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: The NYT article actually does a decent job laying out the different dynamics, though you would have to read the whole article to capture the nuance. As I explained in my guest post, government policy was clearly on the path toward loosening at least 2 weeks before before the wave of protests. Despite official propaganda still paying faithful lip service, “Dynamic COVID Zero” was clearly becoming untenable. The protests probably accelerated the schedule for reopening, but the direction was already set in the weeks before. The proximal factors touching off the protests was the wave of soft lockdowns implemented by cities around the countries in the 3rd week of Nov., to contain the spread precipitated by policy loosening implemented in the 2nd week of Nov. The protests helped ensure that there would not be any zigzags in the reopening.
The only methods that allowed China to contain Omicron through Q2/Q3 of 2022 were regular mass screening & soft/ hard lockdowns. The protests showed that a substantial (though not necessarily the majority) portion of the population were no longer willing to be consistently compliant w/ these two policies. Furthermore, the only reason regular mass screenings were effective & affordable was because of 10 : 1 or 20 : 1 batch testing. Even before the accelerated reopening at the end of Nov., cities w/ large outbreaks (Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Shijiazhuang, etc.) were already seeing so many batches turning positive & requiring individual follow up testing that batch testing was becoming counterproductive. w/o regular mass screening & wide area soft lockdowns, Omicron is sure to explode. All of the other mitigation measures serve as barely noticeable speed bumps. All of the schools are still online (haven’t prevent every school aged child I know from becoming infected). Only ~ half of the restaurants are operating, & they are generally mandated to operate at maximum of half capacity, though actually are only a quarter full. Masks are still required indoors, & everyone is masked outdoors anyway. In any case, people are making their own decisions to minimize venturing out, leading to scenes of quiet streets. That is very significant social distancing even in the absence of official policy. None of these factors have prevented Omicron from quickly burning through the urban areas of major Chinese cities, just like the same policies & behaviors did not prevent Omicron from quickly washing over Hong Kong & Taiwan.
I do think Western Media & commentators tend to focus too much on the personality of Xi himself. In the implementation of “Dynamic Zero COVD”, which was the crystal clear #1 priority established by the regime leadership (starting from Xi), over-zealotry among local bureaucrats to display loyalty to central directives had been a factor. Minimize COVID-19 transmission was the top KPI judging local governments’ performance from 2020 – 2022, & allowing a sizable outbreak to occur that necessitates a lockdown was a major black mark. By Q3 2022, the cost of the regular mass screenings & soft lockdowns were stressing local government financials to the breaking point (already suffering from the slowing economy), & the contradictory directives from Beijing to minimize transmission & minimize socioeconomic disruption was an impossible one for them to strike. Once Beijing signaled unequivocally toward reopening, following the wave of protests, local governments were all too happy to oblige & relieve themselves of the burdens. I don’t think eagerness to make Xi happy is a significant factor in the speed of the opening, contrary to analysis commonly found in Western MSM. It was not just the local government bureaucrats that were exhausted, so were all of the grassroots workers that actually implemented the mass screenings, lockdowns & quarantines at the ground level.
Were people in China (government & average Zhous) surprised at the speed of transmission upon reopening? I’d say yes. The BA.2.76/BA.5/BF.7 currently prevalent in China are even more transmissive than the BA.1/2 strains that tore through Hong Kong & Taiwan in the spring, & no one really has a good estimate on the R0 (range between 10 – 18) in a population w/ negligible prior exposure (transmission had overwhelmed testing capacity in Hong Kong & Taiwan during their exit waves). w/o soft lock downs, other mitigation measures (mandated & voluntary) may just reduce the Rt to mid-high single digits (WAG here), which would still be higher than Delta’s R0.
All of the things that the Chinese government should have done to better prepare for the exit, IMO would only have reduced the coming death toll on the margins. They still should have been done, & the CCP regime deserves all of the criticism it is currently facing domestically & internationally. A couple of hundred thousand lives saved is a couple of hundred thousand lives saved. However, I think we should not fool ourselves into thinking that any preparation could have materially changed what people are experiencing, what the health care system is experiencing, & what the Western MSM is reporting. The latest Omicron variants are too transmissive. At least the exit tsunami will likely be short in duration. Come Mar., I suspect China will have adjusted to the new normal that the ROW has reached, w/ the continuing steady level of deaths, & people who end up suffer from long term sequelae, fading into the background & largely forgotten by most of the population & the powers that be.
IMHO, the protests actually provided the CCP regime w/ political cover to reopen, & reduce the blowback from the consequences of reopening. Right now, the mood I am sensing from people around me are quite different than Jan. 2020. People in China have seen the ROW open up & throwing away all mitigation measures for the past year. They have been hearing from their contacts overseas that Omicron is not scary to the individual for just as long. Now they are seeing it for themselves. The stories on social media about recoveries after a week of mild to moderate symptoms are orders of magnitude higher than stories of parents/grandparents not being able to get a hospital bed & dying at home. If the speed of transmission was slower, then latter stories would have caused tremendous fear & anger, anxiety that anyone’s parents/grandparents will be caught in the same desperate situation. Instead, the vast majority of people have seen their own parents/grandparents becoming infected & recover. Right now my family/friends/colleagues/acquaintances around me are facing the prospect of infection w/ good (if slightly dark) humor. Anyone testing positive gets a flood of encouragement not to succumb to fear.
The zeitgeist is at a different place. If there is any anger at the CCP regime’s COVID-19 policies, it is that China should have opened back in Spring.
Falling Diphthong
To pull out a phrase from that poll: Masking in restaurants.
Note, I did not eat indoors at a restaurant for more than a year, until fully vaxxed. Afterward, so long as restaurants near me asked people to mask when walking between the door and the table, I did that. But I didn’t think it was anything but theater. “Put on your mask, walk into the bar, then take off your mask to spend an hour or so drinking, eating, and breathing unmasked” is not a logical step to prevent transmission, and wherever it’s included people are going to get eye-rolly about the actual public health impact vs theater.
If we believe masking would truly make the difference, then we should be consistent and say there will be no more gathering in public to eat or drink, since you must unmask to do those things.
YY_Sima Qian
@kalakal: Thanks! My wife is actually doing well, it is just that her coughing & nasal congestion is worse than mine. She is already testing negative & returning to work tomorrow.
Matt McIrvin
@New Deal democrat: It varies a lot from place to place. Middlesex County, MA is having a sudden big outbreak and is at 2,500 copies/mL, which is already half the peak of last winter’s wave for them. In my county we’re at 1,989, which is a little below this moment last year.
New Deal democrat
@YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for your very detailed reply.
arrieve
Reporting in on Day 7 of my own plague diary: Just finished the antivirals (not Paxlovid, Lagevrio) which really knocked out the cough and congestion. I think I mentioned that I got severely dehydrated and had to go to the ER, but since then I’ve been able to eat again. And I discovered that I had actually lost my sense of taste; I just hadn’t noticed. (So that’s why the Gatorade tasted so weird! Not just because it’s, you know, Gatorade!)
I’m still really really tired, but at least now I can be normal sick–lying on my bed, drinking tea, watching TV or reading–instead of sick sick. That’s a definite improvement.
YY_Sima Qian
@arrieve: Glad to hear that your are improving!
arrieve
@YY_Sima Qian: You too!
Fair Economist
@YY_Sima Qian: Best to your family for a quick recovery.
Fair Economist
@Soprano2: China didn’t go to a “let it go” policy, contrary to that reporting. They went to mask mandates and distance schooling – roughly the US policy for 2020. The rapid spread reflects the insane transmissability of current COVID strains.
PST
This is Day 5 for me, and I just tested negative. I wasn’t expecting that; in fact, I felt like I was wasting a test, but we’re knee-deep in them around here and I wondered if the pink line would be pale (like it was on Day 1) rather than robust (like on Day 2). (I’m calling the first day I had mild symptoms but tested negative using both antigen and CPR as Day 0.) I started Paxlovid on Day 1 and will, of course, take the last dose this evening. For some reason, I’ve been peeing incessantly since I started it. Has anyone else experienced that? Now I’m drinking lots of water with electrolytes, in order to avoid dehydration, so it’s self-perpetuating.
Kelly
If you have a stock of at home covid tests you may want to check the expiration dates against this list of extended expiration dates. I found 2 boxes, totaling four tests that are good until February and 4 boxes totaling 8 test that are good until July 2023.
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/home-otc-covid-19-diagnostic-tests#list
Mike S
This thread is horrifying:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1604748747640119296?s=20&t=PoJUY_YaMDpbzAapIYX1QQ
PST
@Kelly: Good point. January 15, 2024. I exaggerated a little when I said we were knee deep. We had 8 tests and I know 4 are coming. Since my wife and I are recovering now, it may be a long time before we exhaust this supply.
frosty
@Percysowner:
So sorry you got it but glad it’s mild; seems inevitable to me now that it can’t be dodged.
I’m on Day 5 of quarantine from the rebound that hit me on Day 10 of the infection. So over two weeks of staying away from everyone. Wife and son both cleared it and are negative now. I hope to join them in a day or two.
This is no fun, but yes it could be worse.
eachother
@Mike S:
The hearses are lining up at the crematoriums. China reports 2 deaths. I suppose the actual truth will get closer as Covid reality expands to meet it?
Thanks for the link.
Another Scott
@Mike S: He may be right, time will tell.
One thing to keep in mind though – Eric Ding is a fear monger. He’s often screaming about how horrible everything is with apocalyptic language. Beware of his take and look at his sources.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott:
@eachother:
@Mike S:
I wouldn’t take Eric Feigl-Ding’s adjectives & descriptives too seriously, he tends to hyperventilate. His analyses needs to be read critically. However, he is pretty good at highlighting the downside, so it is worthwhile to read through to the papers, reports & data he links.
As for the lines of hearses outside of Beijing funeral homes, as I wrote above, it is both due to the onset of the expected wave of deaths & because the funeral homes are short handed due to infection among the staff. So far, we have not heard similar in other Chinese cities, including lower Tier cities (like Baoding in Hebei Province) that had an outbreak starting earlier than Beijing, which doesn’t necessarily mean it is not happening there. The current events is unprecedented for China, China is a huge & complex place, & things are in great flux, so we should be aware of the limitations of the bits & pieces of information that we can gleam, & I would caution against assigning single causes to events that we observe.
dnfree
@YY_Sima Qian: so sorry to hear what your family is going through. Thanks again for the faithful updates.