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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 302: Now That’s a Party!

War for Ukraine Day 302: Now That’s a Party!

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Yesterday Ukrainian forces put a 155 mm round on target in Russian occupied Donetsk. The target was former Russian Deputy PM and current head of Roskosmos Dmitri Rogozin.

I am going to resist working up a series of jokes about how one gets wounded in the butt and in the soft tissue of the head at the same time, but I will say that was one hell of a party.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today will be a very short address and in unusual conditions, but as always – about what we have achieved.

We are returning from Washington – we are coming with good results. With something that will really help.

When we say “patriots” in Ukraine and in the United States, we equally mean the protection of the state and people. This issue has been settled for Ukraine. There is financial support too.

Also there are other agreements – more on that later.

I thank President Biden for his help, his international leadership, and his determination to win.

I am grateful to the Congress of the United States – both houses, both parties, all those who support Ukraine, all those who want victory as much as we all do. There will be victory!

Glory to each of our warriors! Glory to everyone who defends our state! We are bringing to Ukraine, to Donbas, to Bakhmut and to the south the decisions that our Defense Forces have been waiting for.

On the way home, I met with President of Poland Andrzej Duda. I thanked him, all Poles, the city – rescuer Rzeszów for everything they do for Ukraine and our protection – the protection of Europe.

Today, in a special format, face to face, we discussed our interaction with Andrzej. I told him about what I heard in the United States, about our strategic vision for the next year… We are preparing, strengthening our joint forces.

And one more thing – today is a professional holiday of people who give us normality, modernity and exactly the level of well-being that the terrorist state wants to destroy. Today is the Day of Energy Workers. I congratulate all of you, defenders of the Ukrainian light, and thank you for your work. We also bring new agreements to help you!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the sitatuations in Bakhmut, Kremenna, and Kherson:

National Security Staff/National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby has briefed out that the Wagner Group PMC has sourced weapons from the DPRK for use in Ukraine:

The Financial Times has the details:

The White House has accused North Korea of arming the Kremlin-linked private military company Wagner Group, which has deployed its mercenaries in Ukraine as part of Russia’s invasion of its neighbour.

John Kirby, spokesperson for the US National Security Council, said the North Korean deliveries, which have included rockets and missiles, began in November but have not had a significant effect on the course of the war.

“Because of our sanctions and export controls, Wagner is searching around the world for arms suppliers to support its military operations in Ukraine,” he said. “We can confirm that North Korea has completed an initial arms delivery to Wagner, which paid for that equipment.”

While the US does not assess that the Wagner deliveries will change the battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, it is “concerned that North Korea is planning to deliver more military equipment”, Kirby said. The deliveries were first reported by Reuters.

Kirby said Prigozhin was spending $100mn per month on the group and was having trouble finding recruits. Wagner officials including Prigozhin have been travelling to prisons and recruiting convicts, even some with serious medical conditions, Kirby added.

The US estimates Wagner has about 50,000 personnel deployed to Ukraine, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts, with fighters playing a major role in Bakhmut, the eastern Ukrainian city where some of the most intense recent fighting has occurred.

The group was leading combat operations in other parts of the Donbas, with Russian military officials subordinate to Wagner’s command in some cases, said Kirby.

Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kutzezov is on fire. Again. Ironically it was constructed at the shipyards in Nikolaev, Ukraine.

The New York Times has published a very detailed, long form deep dive report on the Russian military unit responsible for the massacre in Bucha:

When videos and photos emerged in April showing bodies of dozens of civilians strewn along a street in Bucha, Ukrainians and the rest of the world voiced horror and outrage. But in Russia, officials had a completely different reaction: denial.

President Vladimir V. Putin dismissed the gruesome scene as “a provocation,” and claimed that the Russian Army had nothing to do with it.

But an eight-month visual investigation by The New York Times concluded that the perpetrators of the massacre along Yablunska Street were Russian paratroopers from the 234th Air Assault Regiment led by Lt. Col. Artyom Gorodilov.

The evidence shows that the killings were part of a deliberate and systematic effort to ruthlessly secure a route to the capital, Kyiv. Soldiers interrogated and executed unarmed men of fighting age, and killed people who unwittingly crossed their paths — whether it was children fleeing with their families, locals hoping to find groceries or people simply trying to get back home on their bicycles.

Times reporters spent months in Bucha after Russian forces withdrew, interviewing residents, collecting vast troves of security camera footage and obtaining exclusive records from government sources. In New York, Times investigators analyzed the materials and reconstructed the killings along this one street down to the minute. Some of the most damning evidence implicating the 234th included phone records and decoded call signs used by commanders on Russian radio channels.

It all points to a brazen and bloody campaign that turned a quiet suburban street into what residents now call the “road of death.”

What differentiates the evidence discovered in Bucha are the scale and detail that link a single unit and its commander to specific killings, with possible implications for ongoing investigations. The International Criminal Court (I.C.C.) is already investigating possible war crimes and other atrocities in Ukraine.

“This kind of digital evidence is a sea change, especially compared to past investigations such as in the former Yugoslavia,” said Matthew Gillett, a senior lecturer at the University of Essex who previously worked at international criminal courts. “If any Ukraine cases end up at an international court such as the I.C.C., it has to have a significant video component.”

A Paratrooper Unit Emerges as the Culprit
While various military units were present in Bucha — and the death toll across the city reached over 400 — The Times identified the 234th Regiment, a paratrooper unit based in the city of Pskov in western Russia, as the main culprit in the Yablunska Street killings. Airborne units like this are considered some of the best trained and equipped in the Russian military. Evidence of the 234th’s involvement includes military equipment, uniform badges, radio chatter and packing slips on munition crates. Military experts from Janes and the Institute for the Study of War provided insights about Russian armored vehicles and their markings as well as tactical operations seen in the visual evidence.

Mothers, Fathers, Children: Ordinary Citizens as Victims
The Times identified — for the first time — three dozen people who were killed along Yablunska Street in March. We reviewed death certificates for most of these victims, and the predominant cause of death was gunshot wounds.

Nearly all the victims we identified on Yablunska Street were civilians or Ukrainian P.O.W.s. Killing them could be prosecuted by the International Criminal Court and deemed war crimes under international humanitarian law. Because of their systematic and widespread nature, the killings in Bucha could also amount to crimes against humanity. Russia has not joined the I.C.C. and is unlikely to cooperate on any potential future cases that involve Russian soldiers.

The Killings Were Not Random Acts of Violence
The victims on Yablunska Street did not die in the crossfire between Russian and Ukrainian forces, nor were they mistakenly shot in the fog of war. Our investigation shows that Russian troops intentionally killed them, apparently as part of a systematic “clearing” operation to secure the path to the capital. Dozens of civilians were shot dead. In other cases, men suspected of links to the Ukrainian military were rounded up and executed.

Dereliction in the Chain of Command
Lt. Col. Artyom Gorodilov, the regiment commander at the helm of the 234th, oversaw operations of the paratrooper unit in Bucha. Times investigators obtained documents that confirmed the call sign he used when communicating over the radio with his troops. Security cameras along Yablunska Street captured some of this radio chatter, establishing that Lt. Col. Gorodilov was in command, and two soldiers in the 234th who served in Bucha confirmed in interviews that he was there.

After Russian troops retreated from the Kyiv region, Lt. Col. Gorodilov received a promotion to colonel in April from the then-head of the airborne forces, Col. Gen. Andrey Serdyukov. The ceremony was held days after the shocking images from Bucha emerged.

Neither General Serdyukov nor Colonel Gorodilov’s immediate superior at the time, Maj. Gen. Sergey Chubarykin, has publicly announced any investigations into the carnage in the town despite the global outrage over the images. As superior officers, they ultimately answer for the actions of the forces under their command. By neither stopping nor investigating the atrocities in Bucha, they could ultimately bear responsibility for them.

The Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian Embassy in Washington and Colonel Gorodilov did not respond to requests for comment.

Much, much more at the link including video.

I think that’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

42Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose

    When I saw the report about Rogozin and it said the wounds weren’t serious, I was like…aw, damn it. Me, literally rooting for injuries. But how else should we think about these monsters? Someone in an earlier thread shared this tweet and it hit me hard:

    On the train to Kyiv yesterday I sat with a soldier who had recovered from his injuries and was starting the journey back to the front. I just sat and listened for hours. Perhaps I will never see Yuriy from Zhytomyr again, but, the weight of his words will stay with me forever.
    — Kate Tsurkan 🇺🇦 (@TsurkanKate) December 20, 2022

    Lasting words: “It’s not Putin who scares me. It’s the Russian nation that found it easier to pick up guns and kill, torture, rape innocent people in Ukraine rather than build a better country for themselves back home.” https://t.co/b6YepOLGiv
    — Kate Tsurkan 🇺🇦 (@TsurkanKate) December 22, 2022

    Yeah. Same.

    I was so glad that Zelenskyy came here, but am also very glad he’s back home now. Oh, and for those of you who are as Hulking-out enraged as I am about assholes talking shit about his clothes, this op-ed was a nice balm for that.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  9. 9.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Alison Rose:

    Archimandrite Makariy told me: “We have so much pain. Our children and our women are being murdered by the Russian army. After we take care of this Russian problem, then can we talk about forgiveness.”

    “But not yet,” he added. “Not yet.”
    — Nolan Peterson (@nolanwpeterson) December 23, 2022

  11. 11.

    Alison Rose

    Well this would be nice.

    ⚡️Politico: Pentagon considers training Ukrainian soldiers on Patriot in US.

    The Pentagon is considering training Ukrainian soldiers to operate the Patriot surface-to-air missile system at a military base in the United States, two Defense Department officials told Politico.
    — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 23, 2022

  13. 13.

    Amir Khalid

    @Alison Rose:

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Before there can be forgiveness, there must first be accountability. When the Russians have been chased out of Ukraine, they should be made to turn over for trial every last soldier identified as a war crime suspect.

  15. 15.

    dmsilev

    I am going to resist working up a series of jokes about how one gets wounded in the butt and in the soft tissue of the head at the same time, but I will say that was one hell of a party.

    Hey now, rectocranial insertion syndrome is no laughing matter.

  16. 16.

    trollhattan

    @Amir Khalid: Do you suppose Russia will possibly budge from the classic abuser stance, “Well, shethey made me do it”? Given the level of indoctrination I have deep doubts.

  17. 17.

    Redshift

    @Alison Rose: I feel for you, but I couldn’t get worked up about their whining about his clothes, it was just so stupid. They cheer on mouth-breathing wingnut congress-critters who heckle the president, but they pretend to think not wearing a suit is “not showing respect”? It’s so obvious they’ve got nothing, and are desperately trying to hide the fact that they’re on Putin’s side because they know that’s unpopular.

  20. 20.

    Amir Khalid

    @trollhattan:

    No one will expect Russia to willingly hand over its war crimes suspects, of course. Nonetheless the international community needs to exact that Russia do it. Justice demands no less.

  21. 21.

    Ken

    What does “New reports indicate that they are worsening” mean? I can’t cut-and-paste from the image in that tweet into Google translate.  Is this one of those Russian situations, where a minor wound is complicated by falling out of the hospital window?

  22. 22.

    Bill Arnold

    @Alison Rose:

    When I saw the report about Rogozin and it said the wounds weren’t serious, I was like…aw, damn it.

    Pre-Ukraine-(re-)invasion, Russia regularly lied about their COVID-19 death statistics, and probably about their case statistics as well. The ratio of excess mortality to reported COVID-19 deaths was between 3 and 4. The official statistics agency (Rosstat) was reporting proper mortality statistics (some honesty there, to their credit) so the excess mortality calculations were straightforward.
    The Russian government lies, regularly. Any statements it makes must be presumed to be very likely lies. I automatically assign a probability of about 40 percent that a Russian statement is entirely true.

  24. 24.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Amir Khalid: There’s “Emotionally satisfying”, and there’s “Achievable objectives”. In international relations, the two rarely, if ever, overlap. The big settlements at the end of big wars always leave everyone dissatisfied.

    In this one, I think our guidance should be that we should assist Ukraine in gaining every achievable military success to terminate the war. Following which, the Ukrainian government should lead in deciding which unpalatable yet inevitable compromises it is prepared to live with for the sake of rebuilding the country, as part of the West, with its back to Russia.

  25. 25.

    Bill Arnold

    @Ken:

    I can’t cut-and-paste from the image in that tweet into Google translate.

    For images with text in a not-understood language, if you have a smartphone, get the google translate app. Touch the camera icon and it will start attempting to OCR/translate any text it sees, with automatic language detection. It’s machine translation, but still often helpful. Might have to hold the phone sideways.
    Also Twitter will, depending on browser, offer tweet translations, at least it does for me. (Perhaps there are plugins involved; not sure.)

  26. 26.

    dr. luba

    Someone asked yesterday what F…err, Tucker Carlson was referring to with his claim that Zelensky was “waging war on christianity.”

    As with many on the far right, TC ignores the inconvenient fact that there are many churches in Ukraine, including multiple orthodox churches, one of which is the canonical church (OCU) and one of which is a subsidiary of the Kremlin (UOC). The latter is full of Russian spies and saboteurs who pray for the destruction of Ukraine as well as acting on it.

    Wonkette was on it today.

  29. 29.

    Bill Arnold

    Re
    “In certain instances, Russian military officials are actually subordinate to Wagner’s command,” said John Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator at the National Security Council. “It’s pretty apparent to us that Wagner is emerging as a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries.”
    John Kirby is suggesitng that we pay close attention to the dynamics of a waxing Wagner vs other Russian power centers. Could be exciting.

  30. 30.

    oldster

    Josh Hawley, the insurrectionist, refused to attend the joint session. It’s always nice when people show you their true colors.

    In this case, I think he has made a fatal blunder. The majority of the country supports Ukraine — even the majority of the republicans do. He has gone too far out on a limb on this one, and it will damage him in the long run.

    Watching Zelenskyy’s address and the ovations he received — I was very moved. It felt good to feel good about being an American, again.

    People who don’t want to face up to our defeat in Vietnam or Iraq will fantasize about how our military could have won it if only we had  [stayed another Friedman unit, bombed Ho Chi Minh harder, shot more hippies on campuses, etc.]. They always think a little more materiel would have made the difference.

    But our experience in Ukraine should show us the answer. We could have won in Vietnam, we could have won in Iraq, if we had been on the side of a truly united people led by a truly decent, honest, and upright leader. We’re an awesome hegemon, in our power and wealth. But our desires are no substitute for the desires of the people in the villages, the people on the front lines, the people whose ancestors have been there for centuries and who will be there after we leave.  If they want it enough, then our power and money can help them make it happen. But if they don’t want what we want, then all of our trillions will be wasted, water poured out on the desert sand.

    In Zelenskyy and in Ukraine we have worthy partners. They are lucky to have us, and we are lucky to have them.

  31. 31.

    oldster

    Josh Hawley, the insurrectionist, refused to attend the joint session. It’s always nice when people show you their true colors.

    In this case, I think he has made a fatal blunder. The majority of the country supports Ukraine — even the majority of the republicans do. He has gone too far out on a limb on this one, and it will damage him in the long run.

    Watching Zelenskyy’s address and the ovations he received — I was very moved. It felt good to feel good about being an American, again.

    People who don’t want to face up to our defeat in Vietnam or Iraq will fantasize about how our military could have won it if only we had  [stayed another Friedman unit, bombed Ho Chi Minh harder, shot more hippies on campuses, etc.]. They always think a little more materiel would have made the difference.

    But our experience in Ukraine should show us the answer. We could have won in Vietnam, we could have won in Iraq, if we had been on the side of a truly united people led by a truly decent, honest, and upright leader. We’re an awesome hegemon, in our power and wealth. But our desires are no substitute for the desires of the people in the villages, the people on the front lines, the people whose ancestors have been there for centuries and who will be there after we leave.  If they want it enough, then our power and money can help them make it happen. But if they don’t want what we want, then all of our trillions will be wasted, water poured out on the desert sand.

    In Zelenskyy and in Ukraine we have worthy partners. They are lucky to have us, and we are lucky to have them.

  32. 32.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Amir Khalid: @Carlo Graziani:

    I want all of Russia’s war crimes suspects handed over for trial, so there. Pout.

    If Putin’s master strategy continues to operate as it has been, the war crimes suspects will be dead on the battlefield in no time with no need for the expense of a trial!

  33. 33.

    Gin & Tonic

    @oldster: There’s a big difference in fighting for your home vs fighting as the “away team.” But that’s a lesson a lot of people refuse to learn.

  35. 35.

    way2blue

    @Alison Rose:

    Or that Russian men join the military and go to Ukraine to kill because Putin has promised them a better wage.  Killing people.  To be able to what?  Buy an iPhone?  Kill.  Innocent people.

  37. 37.

    bjacques

    About the million new soldiers Putin promises, are they really much of a threat? Where will he find the logistics to call them up, (minimally) train and equip them, and move them to various fronts, and won’t any troop trains within HIMARS range be fat, juicy targets long before they reach the battlefield? It’s not like existing problems of corruption got solved in the past ten months. And Prigozhin got all the desperate and ruthless prisoners, whereas the military will get the guys without the means or initiative to have fled during the first mobilization, and there now must be fewer of Kadyrov’s NKVD to encourage them to fight.

     

    Meanwhile in Belarus, I can’t see Lukashenka being in any better position than before to materially assist in any attack from the north; if anything less so, given better Ukrainian preparedness and access to long range weapons.

  39. 39.

    evodevo

    @oldster: Yes, this…I argue about this all the time with my career Army BIL (who, by the way, NEVER went to Nam and was stateside the whole time – but who insists WE WOULDA WON EXCEPT FOR TEH HIPPIES) and my AF son (who I got into an argument with over the Afghan withdrawal).  My point was, if the people IN that country wanted it, we would never have to set foot there, only supply them with the wherewithal….they refused to concede the point…

  40. 40.

    The Pale Scot

    Does anyone know of a list of charities that are specific to Ukraine? All I can find are general charities Red Cross etcetera.

Comments are closed.