The US government is preparing to drastically reduce its role in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic even as an explosion of cases in China is raising fresh concern about the virus within the Biden administration, @josh_wingrove reports https://t.co/u1Oms0zaLR
— Jordan Fabian (@Jordanfabian) December 22, 2022
… Next year’s government funding package includes a brand-new White House Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy that would have a director appointed by the president and up to 25 staff members.
“They’re not simply going to retire the role that [White House Covid-19 response coordinator Ashish Jha] plays when the emergency declaration ends,” said J. Stephen Morrison, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the director of its Global Health Policy Center. “You can’t just keep piling on coordinators, disease by disease.”
The new director’s main responsibilities would be to advise the president on preparing for pandemics and other biological threats, to coordinate response activities across the federal government — including research into new countermeasures and distribution of medical supplies — and to evaluate the government’s readiness. The director would also be a member of the Domestic Policy Council and the National Security Council…
The provision that would create the new office was part of a larger pandemic preparedness package assembled by Senate health committee leaders Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.). Lawmakers are aiming to pass the broader government funding package by Friday to avert a shutdown.
“We routinely underinvest in, and underappreciate, these key dimensions of preparedness. Having a pandemic response office, with a director appointed by White House, is an important development,” Morrison said.
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WHO's emergencies director Mike Ryan: "In China, what's been reported is relatively low numbers of cases in ICUs, but anecdotally ICUs are filling up…I wouldn't like to say that China is…not telling us what's going on. I think they're behind the curve."https://t.co/OEXzmx4XTB
— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) December 22, 2022
Bloomberg: #China is likely experiencing 1 million #but Covid infections and 5,000 virus deaths every day as it grapples with what is expected to be the biggest outbreak the world has ever seen, according to a new analysis https://t.co/ZB9zoTrUUZ via @bpolitics
— Patricia M Thornton (@PM_Thornton) December 22, 2022
After years of enforcing harsh measures to stamp out the coronavirus, President Xi Jinping's abrupt abandonment of zero-COVID in the face of protests and a widening outbreak has left China scrambling to avert a collapse of its public health system https://t.co/gASfISdaxd pic.twitter.com/OuSqratE4F
— Reuters (@Reuters) December 23, 2022
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China's narrow criteria for identifying deaths caused by COVID-19 will underestimate the true toll of the pandemic's current wave there and could make it harder to communicate the best ways for people to protect themselves, foreign health experts warn. https://t.co/VWqlqinuAp
— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) December 22, 2022
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‘a China watcher and a news junkie, ex-South China Morning Post’
My latest #ThoughtofDayonChina: Fever meds in short supply, hospitals overwhelmed, blood shortage, death tolls soaring among the elderly, morgues overflown with body bags –Why China has a man-made crisis after "sudden reopening"https://t.co/j3y7I0z2nh pic.twitter.com/Hml9eLLChl
— Wang Xiangwei (@wangxiangweihk) December 22, 2022
The good news is we have the lowest average age of any city in China, we also have relatively few disabled people, so most Shenzheners will be fine.
— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) December 21, 2022
(Chinese New Year 2023 begins January 22.)
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Since successfully containing the first Wuhan outbreak in April 2020, China has had more than two and a half years to prepare for the end of its zero-COVID policy, which placed strict restrictions on a public increasingly tired of life under lockdowns. But Beijing hasn’t used that time wisely. The COVID-19 wave now surging across the country is hitting a deeply underprepared health care system. Streets once empty because of lockdowns are now empty because people are only venturing out to get medicine. Other countries, such as Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea, abandoned strict containment policies but were able to contain hospitalizations and deaths because they had used the time they bought for themselves to vaccinate their citizens, educate their publics, and build up health care supply chains. These countries escaped the extremely high infection rates of the first year of the pandemic in countries such as the United States despite omicron waves, putting their decision-making in stark contrast to China’s.
China’s comparative success or failure won’t be clear for years, if ever, but the picture on the ground so far ranges from disappointing to frightening. The years of the pandemic were spent shoring up zero-COVID controls to extremes, not expanding the health care system. Overconfidence and over-investment in zero-COVID measures, combined with political demands and propaganda, have left health care workers uncertain as to what to do and the Chinese public dangerously vulnerable.
Reliable numbers are impossible to obtain. The official figures are an increasingly ludicrous fiction. The withdrawal of the onerous testing system has moved China from one extreme to another, with citizens forming social media groups to work together to find testing kits which are suddenly in short supply. China maintains that there have only been seven deaths since the zero-COVID policy effectively ended on Dec. 7, even as the bodies pile up in crematoriums and fever clinics. In part, this is because of China’s extremely narrow definition of COVID-19 deaths, a policy choice that continues the country’s past undercounting of flu deaths. Virtually any pre-existing condition is being seized on to avoid classifying a death as due to COVID-19, while other fatalities are being attributed, as with flu, to “pneumonia” or “cardiac arrest” rather than the trigger of COVID-19…
As a result of both the failure to prepare and the unwillingness to publicly admit the extent of the crisis, health care workers are struggling to cope. In some cases, Chinese medical staff are calling their U.S. counterparts through personal contacts to try and determine best treatment methods. One doctor in a small northeast town with whom we spoke (who asked, like other sources, for anonymity for fear of possible political consequences) talked of soaring case numbers and hospital authorities improvising to develop triage and treatment protocols with little guidance either from government bodies or the body of literature and experience that has been developed across the world over the last three years.
She stated that the first case of the latest wave of COVID-19 she saw was on Nov. 28. Now, approximately one-third to one-half of admittees in the in-patient section of her hospital were positive for COVID-19 and about 60 percent of the staff, including herself, had caught it. “I feel like the hospital is sort of struggling because of how many workers are sick with the coronavirus,” she said…
Underlying the outbreak is a spotty vaccination record. The two-dose rate is more than 90 percent but much lower among older Chinese, especially the over-80s. Only around 40 percent of the public has received a booster shot. While some analysts have blamed the government for not pushing vaccinations more heavily, resistance to vaccination among the public is strong, despite repeated persuasive efforts by local authorities. Thanks to safety scandals in the past, China’s health care system suffers from a long-time crisis of trust.
The fragmented nature of government in a huge nation has also contributed. Older Chinese tend to live in more rural areas, and COVID-19 measures have been far tougher in the cities than in the countryside. Rather than demanding vaccination directly, city authorities, with some exceptions, have normally required proof of vaccination as part of the ubiquitous (until recently) health-code app system. Even that usually only required the first round of vaccination, not boosters. And older people who live in rural areas have often avoided the health-code app system altogether since they don’t travel.
The government has also failed to approve or import the more effective mRNA vaccines. Part of this may be the desire to promote domestic solutions and technology. But biological paranoia may have played a role too. Since well before the pandemic, Chinese military academics and other public figures have promoted the idea that the United States is developing viruses to genetically target Han Chinese. Far-right anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda about biowarfare in Ukraine have also widely circulated in China. One idea commonly heard from ordinary Chinese people is that the mRNA vaccine will alter your DNA. While much of this is deliberate propaganda, people in parts of the Chinese government may also sincerely believe in such ideas…
Indian reporter in Beijing:
Read this interview with Dr Randeep Guleria why India is not likely to see a spread as in China at the moment – with some alarm at the prospect – because these are two completely different contexts wrt immunity.https://t.co/jpqPHtzrgB
— Ananth Krishnan (@ananthkrishnan) December 21, 2022
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cautions India amid China coronavirus surge https://t.co/oJIS65r0el
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) December 23, 2022
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Dogs were trained to rapidly detect SARS-2 in the sweat of concert goers. They achieved a diagnostic specificity of 99.9% and sensitivity of 81.6%. The overall rate of concordant results (between the dogs and PCR tests) was 99.7%. h/t @SamWangPhD https://t.co/chqtm7vRRj pic.twitter.com/EXi2wi9zt0
— Nicholas A. Christakis (@NAChristakis) December 21, 2022
Another reason you don't want to catch the #coronavirus: #Covid can affect vision & depth perception. The ongoing internat'l research is using animal models to determine the eyes susceptibility to SARS2 & exploring whether it infects the eyes directly https://t.co/FTrw6LtP5o pic.twitter.com/Z5FnNiPoda
— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) December 21, 2022
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SHEA, the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America, is suggesting hospitals no longer routinely test asymptomatic patients for #Covid. Juice not worth the squeeze, they say.
IPC folks: Good idea? Bad idea? https://t.co/MWcVtczKkw— Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 (@HelenBranswell) December 22, 2022
Anecdotally, it’s harder to get the new bivalent booster. Spousal Unit & I finally got ours Wednesday; there are no walk-in appointments available here, and our last appointment was cancelled because the only available pharmacist called in sick that day…
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Highest Covid hospitalizations in New York since January and soaring in seniors, as the XBB variant with added mutations gains growth advantage https://t.co/cz0BwwaIM3 pic.twitter.com/AE7Gh7fQ1P
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) December 22, 2022
GREAT NEWS: If you're experiencing symptoms and don't know what you have, now you can go to any of dozens of mobile "Test to Treat" sites around NYC and get tested for covid, flu & rsv AND if you need it get an Rx for paxlovid or tamflu *on the spot*.
Locations/times by borough: pic.twitter.com/9CS5weKBJb
— Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) December 21, 2022
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Reader Interactions
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New Deal democrat
Biobot updated and revised its data yesterday, showing a major outbreak in the Northeast, with levels higher than any time during the pandemic aside from April 2020 and last winter’s Omicron waves. There was also an increase in the South, but still below this past summer’s wave. Cases in the Midwest were steady, and declined in the West. Nationally particles increased to a level equal to this past summer’s wave, as well as the 2020 and Delta waves, and equivalent to 350,000 cases per day.
Confirmed cases held steady in the past week at 66,700. This is about 1/2 of this past summer’s peak. Hospitalizations continue to rise, at 39,100, vs. 23,000 at their recent low, and at about average levels for the past 2.5 years. Deaths remain low at 408.
The CDC will update its variant info later this morning.
While the winter wave is gaining steam, and will doubtlessly increase further after Christmas and New Year’s, it remains far below last year’s Omicron wave, and about equal to the winter 2020 wave – but far less deadly than either. After Omicron, there has been a sea change in fatality levels, which have averaged 400 +/-100 ever since March. They would be much lower if seniors were fully up to date on vaccinations.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 858 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 5,021,242 cases. 857 of these new cases were local infections; one new case was imported. It also reported three deaths, for an adjusted cumulative total of 36,824 deaths – 0.74% of the cumulative reported total, 0.74% of resolved cases.
27,140 Covid-19 tests were conducted yesterday, with a positivity rate of 4.8%.
There were 14,590 active cases yesterday, 264 fewer than the day before. 859 were in hospital. 46 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 23 confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 1,119 more patients recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,969,828 patients recovered – 99.0% of the cumulative reported total.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 2,148 doses of vaccine on 22nd December: 112 first doses, 103 second doses, 438 first booster doses, and 1,495 second booster doses. The cumulative total is 72,546,334 doses administered: 28,118,997 first doses, 27,530,145 second doses, 16,276,070 first booster doses, and 621,122 second booster doses. 86.1% of the population have received their first dose, 84.3% their second dose, 49.8% their first booster dose, and 1.9% their second booster dose.
Spanky
While sweat is a little hard to come by atm, I’d think this would be an excellent way to pre-screen suspected cases as we move forward into endemic life.
Nelle
Once more and never enough, thank you for all you have done and are doing in providing this information.
Nelle
Once more and never enough, thank you for all you have done and are doing to provide information.
YY_Sima Qian
Standard disclaimer: the reported numbers in China no longer track reality, not even the underlying trend. The numbers to watch are active severe/critical cases, new deaths, & vaccinations. Alas, the currently reported severe/critical cases & deaths are not credible, either. China had established an elaborate infectious disease reporting & tracking system following the SARS epidemic in 2003, further strengthened & refined for COVID-19. The daily data dumps are jus reporting what that system is producing, even though it no longer relevant given the current speed of transmission.
Over the past few days I am hear more stories of elderly (& not so elderly) passing away from COVID-19 (where it is at least likely as a contributing cause), though generally w/ 1 – 3 degrees of separation. One of my colleagues grandmother passed away, > 90 y.o., had a range of underly underlying conditions (had been bedridden for 2 years). She had medium grade fevers for 3 days, temperature had started to drop, but suddenly passed. One of my cousins relayed that she knew of a 35 y.o. who had developed a high fever, was staying home to rest, but was found dead when the spouse returned home at the end of the day. Another cousin reported a relative of someone at work (> 60 y.o.) having to go onto the ventilator. More COVID-19 related deaths being reported on Chinese social media, & deaths of relatively prominent retirees reported by local state media or press releases by their former employers. A cousin of mine in Nanjing who is a nurse at a hospital says the morgue in the hospital is overflowing.
In the meantime, China National Health Commission officials has clarified the criteria for reporting COVID-19 deaths: only if COVID-19 is deemed the primary cause of death, i.e. cases w/ severe respiratory symptoms causing drops in blood oxygen. That is an unexplained sharp departure from the criteria used in the pandemic to date, where a death was counted as COVID-19 death even if COVID-19 was deemed as only a contributing factor. The new criteria ignores the fact that COVID-19 is not just a disease of the respiratory system (even though it is transmitted primarily via the respiratory system), that it can lead to blood clotting & cascading organ failures (something well know since the early days in Wuhan). Needless to say, the new criteria will significantly under report COVID-19 related deaths, possibly by an order of magnitude or more, which is probably the point. It will do nothing for the Chinese government’s credibility. There is still a lot of room for interpretation. Blood clots, myocarditis & organ failures are generally recognized as COVID-19 symptoms. If they are still recognized as such in China, then even the new definition will still capture most of the deaths attributable to COVID-19. The daily data dumps from the China NHC report very few deaths, but social media posts, local state media reports & press releases attributing recent deaths to COVID-19 are not being censored, either. There is probably much confusion in the system regarding COVID-19 deaths. Ultimately, excess death data a year from now will tell the tale. Excess death data from China is not easily accessible to the public, but international researchers can obtain the data, even due to fairly granular levels. (For example, the scientists who public the definitely papers that showed very strong evidence the COVID-19 outbreak started w/ 2 separate spill over events at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, had used excess deaths data in Wuhan at the subdistrict level from winter/spring 2020 as supporting evidence.) Let’s hope such data will continue to be accessible.
I am also seeing unverified screenshots purporting to be minutes from internal meetings held by the China NHC. The screenshot claim that on 12/20, China NHC estimates (via surveillance testing & modeling) that there were ~ 37M infections in China. The provinces w/ the greatest increase on that day were Sichuan, Anhui, Hubei, Shanghai Municipality & Hunan. The cities w/ the greatest increase were Chengdu in Sichuan Province, Lanzhou in Gansu Province, Hefei in Anhui Province & Shanghai. Between 12/1 & 12/20, 248M people had been infected in China, or 17.56% of the total population. It was believed that > 50% of the populations in Beijing Municipality & Sichuan Province have been infected. Between 20 – 50% of the populations in Tianjin Municipality, Hubei, Henan, Hunan, Anhui, Gansu & Hebei have been infected. Of all the severe/critical cases w/ COVID-19, 1.87% have severe/critical symptoms directly attributable to COVID-19, the vast majority have worsened underlying conditions but mild/moderate COVID-19 symptoms. I cannot vouch for the information or their provenance, but they make intuitive sense. It is not surprising that the government has better visibility into the state of the pandemic, but it is not sharing such information, probably to prevent panic & avoid embarrassment.
The mood I sense (around me, anyway) from personal contact & social media is still that of wariness, resignation, good humor, & looking forward to a new normal after recovery. There is not much panic or anger, even w/ the mounting anecdotes of deaths. People are focused on taking care of themselves & their loved ones. Many are surprised/dismayed at how long the coughing & nasal congestion could last even after they test negative on RATs. There is a lot of ridicule directed toward the official numbers.
Anyway, the official numbers:
On 12/22 Mainland China reported 3,696 new domestic confirmed & 3 new domestic suspect cases, & 0 new domestic deaths. Mainland China reported 65 new imported confirmed & 0 new imported suspect cases.
Overall in Mainland China, 2,150 confirmed cases recovered (69 imported) & 50,372 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 39,355 active confirmed cases in the country (471 imported), 416 in serious/critical condition (all domestic, + 42 in the past 24 hrs.), & 23 suspect cases (all domestic). 167,935 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine. There have been 5,241 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
As of 12/22, 3,467.395M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 2.272M doses in the past 24 hrs. As of 12/13, 1,307.222M individuals have taken at least 1 shot (or 92.73% of the total population), 1,274.018M are fully vaccinated (90.37% of the total), & 815.718M boosted (57.86% of the total). Of the > 60 y.o. cohort, 240.217M individuals have taken at least 1 shot (or 91% of the cohort), 228.644M are fully vaccinated (86.6% of the cohort), 184.179M boosted (69.76% of the cohort). Of the > 80 y.o. cohort, 27.73M individuals have taken at least 1 shot (or 77.5% of the cohort), 23.757M are fully vaccinated (66.4% of the cohort), 15.153M boosted (42.35% of the cohort).
On 12/22, Hong Kong reported 20,252 new positive cases, 924 imported & 19,328 domestic, & 46 new deaths. There have been 11,373 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
On 12/21, Macao reported 64 new cases & 1 new death. There have been 18 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
On 12/22, Taiwan added 18,965 new positive cases, 108 imported & 18,857 domestic. There were 40 new deaths. There have been 15,039 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
YY_Sima Qian
On a more personal note, I finally tested negative on RAT yesterday. Almost symptom free, just a little bit of coughing & nasal congestion, which in any case are clearing up. My wife’s grandparents (both > 90 y.o.) still only have moderate symptoms so far, low grade fevers. They were able to call in some favors & both were admitted to a hospital near by, would have been hopeless to get a bed otherwise (their symptoms are not severe enough to warrant hospitalization, as they do not need oxygen support). It is a relief to have them under medical supervision, though, as symptoms can suddenly worsen for the vulnerable, & there is a backlog for ambulance service. No luck getting them Paxlovid. Most of my extended family in Nanjing have been infected over the past week, including most of my uncles & aunts in their 60s & 70s. Fortunately, only mild to moderate symptoms so far. I am most worried about one aunt who is recovering from cancer (& thus unvaccinated based on medical advise), she just tested positive yesterday.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
77 new cases on 12/20/22.
123 new cases on 11/21/22.
156 new cases on 12/22/22.
I went on a scouting expedition yesterday to find a medical office where I have an appointment for a DEXA scan next Wednesday. I hopped out of my car and forgot to grab a mask from the bag I carry with me. I woke up a bit congested in the middle of the night and I’m hoping I didn’t manage to get caught by the ‘rona for the brief time that I was unmasked.
Soprano2
I know I posted this here sometime this week, but I’m going to share a gift link again. WaPo had an article about how regular exercise protects against fatal Covid. It’s something most people can do to help themselves, and it probably protects in this way against other illnesses also. I have yet to catch whatever it was my husband had two weeks ago; I partly attribute that to the fact that I exercise at least some 5 days most weeks.
Lapassionara
Thank you, AL, for this informative post. And thanks to the commenters who have added information.
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: We’ve been watching Colbert on On Demand (stupid rights deal is blocking our local CBS channel from DirecTV). There are always at least two advertisements about getting your Covid vaccine or getting your Covid booster from the government. So they’re trying to get the word out, I just think a lot of people aren’t paying attention anymore because the deaths from Covid have fallen so much.
Soprano2
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m surprised how quickly China seems to have turned into a Florida-like place. The way the government is counting Covid deaths is reminiscent of how Florida hid so many Covid deaths, except that they aren’t counting the deaths of people from other states as having happened in the other state!
Soprano2
@YY_Sima Qian: Glad to hear you’re getting better. I’ll keep your relatives in my thoughts, I sure hope they’re all OK. It has to be scary, how quickly this all blew up.
kalakal
@YY_Sima Qian: Good to hear you’re clear. How is you wife doing? Must be a relief that her grandparents are in what must be the safest place for them. Fingers crossed for all your family
YY_Sima Qian
@kalakal: Thank you! Wife is doing OK. She has been testing negative since last weekend, just working through some coughing & nasal congestion that are also clearing up. I am very relieved that my in-laws had mild cases. They are just about symptom free.
mrmoshpotato
Thank you for continuing these posts, AL! Even with them not being daily, they are still a wealth of information.
Mousebumples
Thanks for these, AL.
Under 5 y/o bivalent updates – 3 yo Daughter Mouse got her booster at Walgreens last week Thursday. The 9 mo was eligible last weekend, but the WI DHS didn’t sign off until Tuesday, so it’s been a challenge finding somewhere willing to vaccinate. I picked up an RX at his 9mo appointment, and we might drive to Milwaukee next week sometime, as they have a pharmacy that is able to vaccinate under 3 yo with an rx. (There’s also one in the Madison area, but we’re not going that way next week.)
Area clinics will have it eventually, but I haven’t been able to get anything other than, “yeah, it’ll be a few weeks” out of anyone.
YY_Sima Qian
@Soprano2: Thank you! As I said, there is actually not much fear & panic. The risk to any individual that is not among the most vulnerable is very low. Since this is the 1st infect for the vast majority of people in China, we are seeing a higher percentage of mild to moderate symptoms, especially in northern China, all of which would be classified as “mild” in the ROW as they do not require hospitalization. We are all just riding out the exit tsunami, which is expected to be incredibly higher but also very short. As for severe/critical cases & deaths, nothing we can do but hope our elderly/vulnerable loved ones do not happen to be among the unfortunate small minority.
New Deal democrat
The CDC just updated its variant analysis, and this week it is *important.*
BA.5 is down to only 7% of cases, and BQ.1&1.1 total about 75%. But that’s not what is so significant.
What is most important is that XBB jumped from 7% one week ago to over 18% this week. Even more significant is *where* it increased most sharply: in the Northeast, where it accounts for over 50% of all cases (vs. generally less than 10% in all other regions).
As I wrote above, Biobot shows a major outbreak in the Northeast, below only Omicron 1 year ago, and the original March-April 2020 wave.
This is very disturbing news, which does not bode well for the other regions, and supports the concern for another bad winter for hospitalizations.
sab
@YY_Sima Qian: That is good to hear/read. My sister’s inlaws in Shanghai are in their nineties and we worry a lot.
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: F*ck! BQ.1 & XBB are being found in China, BQ.1 in 9 provinces & XBB in 3 provinces.
RAM
Ugly sweater:
WaterGirl
@RAM: LOVE the ugly sweater cartoon, though, very clever!
YY_Sima Qian
IMHO, too much of the criticism on the CCP regime for the messy exit is focusing on the wrong things. The things that the Chinese government could have done in advance of the exit to reduce hospitalizations & deaths, in order of potential impact, where they deserve all the criticism they receive for their failure to do so:
Change the medical advise on vaccination for the elderly & those w/ underlying conditions, that is actually being done now to boost vaccination, so it could have been done 6 mo. ago; like other Sinic societies (Hong Kong, Taiwan & Singapore), there would alway been a large percentage of vaccine refuseniks among the elderly in Mainland China; unlike Singapore, trials by Chinese cities showed that a vaccine mandate was a bridge too far for much of the population
Roll out the 2nd booster (w/ whatever vaccines available) to the > 50 or 60 y.o. population in Q2/3, so those who are not vaccine skeptics are better protected; that program was just rolled out this week, but it is far too late given the speed of transmission
Stock a huge amount of Paxlovid, distribute to hospitals at least district/county level, & educate both doctors & the population on both who should have priority access to the drug & the optimal time for taking it; China has also approved several domestic therapeutic drugs, I have not seen any Stage II & III trial data so I do not have the same confidence as w/ Paxlovid; China has approved EUA for Paxlovid back in Q1, & a deal was struck to mass produce the drug in China under license, between domestic production & imports, it should have been possible to make the drug more accessible than it currently is
Approve the BioNTech mRNA vaccine, which had a Chinese company (Fosun Pharma) among the earliest investors into its development of COVID-19 vaccines, even before Pfizer, & a deal was signed in Q2 2021 to mass produce the vaccine in China; talks w/ Moderna apparently broke down because the Moderna did not want to allow license production in China for fear of losing the IP, & the US government did not want to include China in the program of waiving IP rights to allow manufacturing of mRNA vaccines in developing countries; the reason I am skeptical about the potential impact is that the elders & most vulnerable in China were scared off inactivated whole virion vaccines (w/ their very mild side effects), I can’t image they would be more enthusiastic about the mRNA vaccines (w/ their relatively stronger side effects & worse safety profile — too easy to fear-monger, & Chinese propaganda did some of fear-mongering early on) while “Dynamic Zero COVID” was still successful
The things that Chinese government could not have prevented, even if it did all of the above:
Massive tsunami of infection — since none of the current vaccines are effective at blocking transmission, & the current variants insanely transmissive; the only measures containing Omicron transmission were the lockdowns, & test/trace/isolate only works when prevalence is relatively low, all other soft measures (masking mandates, WFH, distance learning, etc.,) only serve as negligible speed bump
Overwhelmed hospitals & ICUs — the insane transmissivity of the current variants means an insanely high (though presumably narrow) peak in infection, w/ an insanely high (though presumably narrow) peak in severe/critical cases, even w/ lower percentage of adverse outcomes due to mass vaccination & weaker variants; China did double ICU capacity from 2019 to 2022, & could surge an additional 25% by EOY, but that pales in comparison to the peak demand modeled to be anywhere from 10 – 16X of 2019 capacity, & then there is the issue of infections depleting the ranks of ICU staff
Significant short term socioeconomic impact — since a massive tsunami of infection is not preventable, then a massive wave worker absenteeism from infection, & a huge drop in movement/activities as people stay home (either due to infection or fear of infection), are not preventable, either
Shortage of fever reduction medicine — since a period of hoarding is inevitable & there is no way to satisfy all demand when there is massive hoarding; we should also keep in mind that fever reduction medicine helps to make you feel better when having high fever, but does not actually help to fight off the SARS-CoV-2 infection, better availability helps reduce population anxiety but does not improve medical outcomes
We have seen the above short term phenomena in every Zero COVID country/region when they exited, to varying degrees. Hong Kong’s messy exit received a lot of Western MSM attention, Australia’s received some, Taiwan/South Korea/New Zealand’s messy exits did not receive much attention at all. My colleagues in Taiwan tell me anti-fever medicine is once again in short supply w/ the onset of the winter wave, & South Korea is apparently limiting sales to individuals, as well. People tend to look at happenings in China in isolation, rather than comparatively w/ what have happened elsewhere. They also tend to forget what exponential growth looks like.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: I wish the best for your sister’s in-laws. It is all in the roll of the dice now. Just focus on the fact that they are vaccinated & boosted (I assume?), & even for the most vulnerable only a minority have adverse outcomes from COVID-19.
Soprano2
@YY_Sima Qian: I have to say, I have never understood why the Chinese government wasn’t much more insistent about people getting vaccinated, especially the elderly population. Even with all the vaccine misinformation and stupid panic in this country among Republicans we managed to get the vast majority of people over the age of 70 to take at least the first two shots.
eachother
@YY_Sima Qian:
So sorry for your difficult situation. So sad for your losses.
Thank you YY Sima Qian for all your continuing efforts to share a look at what is happening on what is to me, the other side of the world.
eachother
XBB? If past is prelude? Is past prelude in virus terms? If it is, the continuing production of variants is concerning. Gatherings are concerning.
This is a bit like Cat in the Hat. A messier cat keeps coming out of the hat. Until XYZ blasts forth. In the story book, all is made right by XYZ. So far, except for the mess, I don’t see evidence of a similar outcome or even an end to the Covid story.