Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

A Senator Walker would also be an insult to reason, rationality, and decency.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Everybody saw this coming.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

A dilettante blog from the great progressive state of West Virginia.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Presidents are not kings, and Plaintiff is not President.

“Squeaker” McCarthy

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 304: Ukrainians’ First Christmas Since the Re-Invasion

War for Ukraine Day 304: Ukrainians’ First Christmas Since the Re-Invasion

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The tweet machine translates as:

n dark times, you can see bright people… Only in a fierce struggle with the all-consuming darkness did we wake up and shine on the whole world. But so much so that the songs and prayers gained meaning, so much so that we were finally able to see each other. Thank you for being you! Christ is born!

Eventually every war, unless it is a very short, quick war, includes at least one Christmas. Also, someone almost always says: “the war’ll be over by Christmas.” Which is true, but usually not the next one on the calendar. In the case of the 100 Years War that guy was right. He was also dead of old age by the time he was right.

Ukrainians war to defend their homes, their culture, their society, and their lives has now reached this sad milestone. Though, more accurately, given that Russia started this war in 2014 and only significantly escalated it in February of this year, this is the eight Christmas to come and go while Ukrainians are at war to defend themselves from Russian aggression. And because some Ukrainians are Western rite and some Eastern Rite, I supposed it would be most technically correct to write this is now the fifteenth Christmas since Russia invaded back in the late Spring of 2014. The sixteenth will be in a few weeks when Eastern rite Ukrainians celebrate Christmas.

I’m sure everyone has places to be, friends and/or family to visit or talk to, so I’m just going to focus on President Zelenskyy’s address, some excerpts from First Lady Zelenska’s interview with FT, a couple of other items, and, of course, Patron!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Christmas greetings of the President of Ukraine to Western Rite Orthodox Christians

Dear people!

These days, millions of people in Ukraine and the world celebrate Christmas. The appearance of the Son of God gave people hope for salvation, faith in the victory of goodness and mercy.

Unfortunately, all the holidays have a bitter aftertaste for us this year. And we can feel the traditional Spirit of Christmas differently. Dinner at the family table cannot be so tasty and warm. There may be empty chairs around it. And our houses and streets can’t be so bright. And Christmas bells can ring not so loudly and inspiringly. Through air raid sirens, or even worse – gunshots and explosions. And all this together can pose a bigger threat. It is a disappointment. Of the higher forces and their power, of goodness and justice in the world. Loss of hope. Loss of love. Loss of myself…

But isn’t this what evil and darkness, which have taken up arms against us, want in their essence?

We have been resisting them for more than three hundred days and eight years. And will we allow them to achieve what they want?

In this battle, we have another powerful and effective weapon. The hammer and sword of our spirit and consciousness. The wisdom of God. Courage and bravery. Virtues that incline us to do good and overcome evil.

The main act of courage is endurance and completion of one’s work to the end, despite everything. The truth illuminates our path. We know it. We defend it. Our truth is a struggle for freedom. Freedom comes at a high price. But slavery has an even higher price.

Our path is illuminated by faith and patience. Patience and faith. These are twin forces. As it was said, “he who rules and controls his own spirit, is better than he who captures a city.” To endure does not mean to accept the circumstances. Patience is watching to make sure that we don’t let any doubt or fear into our minds. It is faith in one’s own strength.

Evil has no weapon stronger than the armor given to us by God. Evil smashes against this armor like a stone wall. We have seen this more than once. We endured at the beginning of the war. We endured attacks, threats, nuclear blackmail, terror, missile strikes. Let’s endure this winter because we know what we are fighting for.

We go forward through the thorns to the stars, knowing what awaits us at the end of the road. God is a just Judge who rewards good and punishes evil. Which side we are on is obvious. Who is who in this battle is obvious. There are at least seven proofs of this – they are known – “A proud look, a lying tongue, And hands that shed innocent blood, An heart that deviseth wicked imaginations, Feet that be swift in running to mischief, A false witness that speaketh lies, And he that soweth discord among brethren.” We oppose all this. Being a role model for others. The faithful, that is, those who really believe, must be a light to the rest of the world. For more than three hundred days, Ukrainians have been striving for this, proving it, serving as an example to others. We are not righteous, not holy, but we are definitely fighting for good and fighting for the light, with faith in Bible prophecy:

“Every valley shall be filled in, every mountain and hill made low. The crooked roads shall become straight, the rough ways smooth. The people who walk in darkness will see a bright light. The light will shine on those who live in the land of death’s shadow. For to us a child is born, to us a son is given!”

We believe that tears will be replaced by joy, hope will come after despair, and death will be defeated by life.

Dear Ukrainian people!

Today and all future winter holidays we meet in difficult circumstances. Someone will see the first star in the sky over Bakhmut, Rubizhne, and Kreminna today. Along thousands of kilometers of the front line. Someone is on the road, on the way – from the Ukrainian-Polish border to Kherson region or Zaporizhzhia. Someone will see it through the bullet holes of his or her own home. Someone will celebrate the holiday in other people’s homes, but strange people’s homes – homes of Ukrainians who gave shelter to Ukrainians. In Zakarpattia, Bukovyna, Lviv region, Ivano-Frankivsk region and many other regions. Someone will hear Shchedryk in another language – in Warsaw, Berlin, London, New York, Toronto and many other cities and countries. And someone will meet this Christmas in captivity, but let them remember that we are also coming for our people, we will return freedom to all Ukrainian men and women.

Wherever we are, we will be together today. And together we will look at the evening sky. And together we will remember the morning of February 24. Let’s remember how much we have passed. Let’s remember Azovstal, Irpin, Bucha, Kramatorsk, Snake Island, Chornobayivka, Izium, Kherson. We make a wish. One for all. And we will feel joy. One for all. And we will understand the truth. One for all. About the fact that no kamikaze drones are capable of extinguishing the Christmas Dawn. We will see its glow even underground in a bomb shelter. We will fill our hearts with warmth and light. No Kinzhal missile can hurt them. They will break against our steel spirit. And our struggle will continue without stopping. It is not threatened by planned or emergency blackouts. And we will never feel a shortage of courage and indomitability.

We have experienced a lot of bitter news and will deservedly receive good news. We will sing Christmas carols – cheerier than ever – louder than the sound of a generator. We will hear the voices and greetings of relatives – in our hearts – even if communication service and the Internet are down. And even in total darkness – we will find each other – to hug each other tightly. And if there is no heat, we will give a big hug to warm each other.

We will celebrate our holidays! As always. We will smile and be happy. As always. The difference is one. We will not wait for a miracle. After all, we create it ourselves.

Christ is born! Let’s praise Him!

The Russians, of course, are not taking the day off:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s latest assessments of the situations in Kremenna and Bakhmut:

Here’s a bit from The Financial Times interview with First Lady Zelenska:

Two soldiers armed with military rifles step into the canteen. They survey the people lunching on borshch, dumplings and sausage rolls before locking in on me and assessing whether I might be a threat to my guest, the first lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska. A quick evaluation seems enough to convince them that I pose no danger. Their approval is sealed with a couple of fist bumps.

A moment later, Zelenska strolls in with two young assistants, one armed with a hair brush, the other a lint roller. They remove her shawl to reveal the first lady in a crisp blue pantsuit over a brown sweater.

One of the assistants gives her hair a quick brush to make sure it is neatly coiffed and Zelenska tucks a strand of it behind her ear, revealing a gold hoop earring. I notice that she is trembling. “It’s so cold outside,” she says, offering her hand. I shake it gently and feel that it is almost frozen to the touch. “Winter is coming,” she mutters.

We are inside the presidential office’s canteen on a Monday afternoon. The place is a fortress, with metal detectors, sandbags piled in front of the windows, and snipers’ perches. It’s dark except for a few scattered lanterns placed on the floor.

I begin our conversation with a question that many Ukrainians have come to loathe since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of their country in February, brutalising and killing them and destroying their cities. But I ask it because I am curious how she will answer.

“How are you?”

“Well,” Zelenska sighs in English before switching to Ukrainian to better express herself. “On the one hand, it’s a simple question. But on the other hand this is the kind of question I don’t exactly know how to answer. We are all living in a period in which it is hard to assess whether we are OK or we are not.”

Zelenska and I are meeting three days after Ukrainian forces liberated the south-central provincial capital of Kherson following almost eight months of Russian occupation. It’s one of Ukraine’s biggest military triumphs since the invasion began.

“We feel something close to euphoria because this is a great victory for us,” Zelenska says, adding that she spent much of the weekend watching videos of Ukrainian troops entering Kherson and the emotional reunions between families and friends.

“But I would say that we should also be very cautious. When the people met our troops in Kherson, of course they were very happy,” she says. “But as for the people in Kyiv who I know, they are a bit afraid to be too joyful, because we don’t want to put a jinx on this luck we are having.”

“So, shall we get some lunch?” the first lady asks in slightly accented English. Three women in white hats and striped aprons greet her, and ask what she’d like from the buffet of traditional Ukrainian dishes. She opts for a cabbage salad with corn and parsley doused in sunflower oil and a fish cutlet.

I ask for the same but with a scoop of mashed potatoes. Zelenska orders black tea and I get a black coffee and a muddy-looking glass of uzvar, my favourite Ukrainian drink, made with dried and smoked fruits and spices. The first lady begins to bring out her wallet to pay before I stop her and insist on picking up the tab — 171 Ukrainian hryvnia, or less than £4.

We don’t know it yet but we are meeting less than 24 hours before Russia will fire 96 missiles at targets across Ukraine — the biggest aerial attack since the invasion began — temporarily knocking out power and water to much of the country.

“We are, I would say, more worried about our enemy because of his losses, because of his defeats,” says Zelenska. She is talking about Vladimir Putin without mentioning his name. It’s something Ukrainians have begun doing regularly, along with using a lower-case r when writing the name of his country.

“We know that he will launch another missile attack against our cities. So our happiness has limits, because we know that these victories are not the end of the war and we’ve got lots of things to do still.”

And, she adds: “After each de-occupation of a city, unfortunately, we find awful things.”

Zelenskyy announced his candidacy for Ukraine’s top political office on New Year’s Eve, as the clock struck midnight on December 31 2018, in a highly coveted television spot traditionally reserved for the current president. To call it a coup would be an understatement. What’s more, he hadn’t told Zelenska he was planning it.

“What was your first reaction to your husband’s announcement?” I ask.

“I was angry. He could have told me. When I heard it, I think my facial expression was the same as it was in the breakfast comment meme,” she says wryly, referring to a screenshot taken from a joint interview the couple gave to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, which went viral on Ukrainian social media. In response to a question from Amanpour, Zelenskyy lamented that, since the invasion began, nobody makes him breakfast any more. As he grinned, Zelenska flashed him a glare that led to countless online jokes.

When I ask about her husband’s comment, Zelenska rolls her eyes. “First of all, he lives in the presidential office. So his breakfast is brought to him by the same people who bring him lunch and dinner,” she says. “But I think he just wanted to emphasise that he misses this normal element of family life, since we used to have breakfast together every morning. And actually, he liked to cook breakfast himself.”

“Is he a good cook?” I inquire.

“Yeah! He makes perfect fried eggs. And often he made them for me,” she says. “I wouldn’t say that he would be totally successful making borshch.”

Zelenska tells me she longs for those “normal” days. “We lack normality in everything now,” she says, explaining that their time together is always fleeting. “Anytime we talk, we think about how little time we have and when we need to part.”

Much, much, much more at the link!

The about description for the video machine translates as:

Three carols of Ukrainian insurgents – which sound so relevant today… Well, what are the times – such are the songs. Warm holidays to you despite everything!

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Коротко про те, як я люблю свою нову подушку🤭 #песпатрон #патрондснс

♬ Better off alone – G <3

The caption machine translates as:

Briefly about how I love my new pillow🤭 #PatrontheDog #PatronDSNS

For those of you celebrating, a very Merry Christmas to you all!

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

50Comments

  1. 1.

    NobodySpecial

    Merry Christmas to you, Adam, to the rest of the blog, to the citizens of Ukraine, and may Ukraine be able to push Russia out so that we don’t have to do this again next Christmas.

  3. 3.

    Ruckus

    On this xmas eve I sit here thinking of the last 70+ yrs and the world around me and I wonder what sort of assholes think they own the world and should have their asses kissed for allowing other human beings to live. What kind of people need to kill others for power that they neither are worthy of or capable of? We’ve seen these people throughout history, they kill innocent people because they are selfish assholes. History is replete with them, their worthlessness, their hate, their greed, their pettiness, their desire to be something they can never be, their thievery, their destruction, their inhumanity. Why do we go through with this crap time after time after time, decade after decade, century after century, why? Why aren’t we better than this? We can stop a pandemic if we try, but more seem to want a pandemic to continue than to stop. Has humanity really not come as far as it should have in all these centuries? How have so many learned so little? And how do they have so many supporters?

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    Yet again, Zelenskyy makes me tear up:

    And all this together can pose a bigger threat. It is a disappointment. Of the higher forces and their power, of goodness and justice in the world. Loss of hope. Loss of love. Loss of myself…

    But isn’t this what evil and darkness, which have taken up arms against us, want in their essence?

    We have been resisting them for more than three hundred days and eight years. And will we allow them to achieve what they want?

    In this battle, we have another powerful and effective weapon. The hammer and sword of our spirit and consciousness. The wisdom of God. Courage and bravery. Virtues that incline us to do good and overcome evil.

    I also appreciate, as he did back on Easter, that he knows how to speak directly to those of a different faith from him. Even at the end when he says “Christ is born. Let’s praise him” it feels very intentional, recognizing that this is how the majority of his people feel, even if it was not part of his own upbringing. And anyway, I’ve said many times that since Jesus was a Jew and seems like he was a pretty cool dude, I have no problem praising him as a man…just not as the Messiah.

    Also, I love that Zelenska addresses that meme, and you can tell, as ever, what boundless love and devotion there is between them.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  9. 9.

    Another Scott

    Happy Holidays, Adam and everyone.

    KyivIndependent.com:

    Germany has provided 13 Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicles to Ukraine, the German government announced on Dec. 24.

    The Bergepanzer 2 is based on the Leopard 1 battle tank. It is tasked with the recovery of battle-damaged vehicles and support in installing and dismantling engines and turrets.

    The German government also said it had supplied to Ukraine 78 border protection vehicles, 35 ambulances, 6 lift trucks, 60,000 rounds of 40 mm ammunition, 18,500 155mm projectiles, 18 load-handling trucks, 50 DINGO mine-resistant ambush protected vehicles, 12 Oshkosh tank transporter tractors, and 3 Beaver bridge-laying tanks.

    Germany is also preparing to send 50 field heaters for soldiers on the battlefield.

    Oryx has occasionally made the point that Germany is doing a lot even while it has said it won’t do many things (like send tanks). This looks like an important announcement and welcome news.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  16. 16.

    oldster

    @Another Scott:

    Strikes me as a *very* significant move by the Germans, and a promising one.

    One of the problems with giving Ukraine Leopard tanks is that equipment needs spare parts and trained mechanics. Tanks break down, a lot, and there’s no point in providing them to people who cannot maintain them. Our own Sec. Austin just said this about whether the US would provide Abrams or not — he said it’s just too complicated to provide the maintenance. And it is true of the Leopard as well — Ukrainian forces know everything about maintaining Soviet armor, but do not have experience with NATO armor.

    Now I see that Germany is providing a 13 copies of a recovery vehicle which is essentially a Leopard tank without a turret or main gun. (It’s more or less an armored tow-truck). That means that Ukrainian troops will soon gain experience with the engines, controls, chassis, tracks, everything else, of Leopard tanks. And it also means that Germany is confident that it can supply Ukraine with the spare parts to maintain them.

    To my mind, this is a *big* step towards Germany’s donating some genuine Leopards one of these days. And this is a way to move down the pathway to a well-maintained, well-supported fleet of Ukrainian Leopards, without raising the visibility of the move, and without raising worries — still too common in some parts of German politics — about “escalation”.

    If I’m wrong about this, then it’s still not a bad thing to have 13 capable armored tow-trucks. But I hope I’m right. I hope someone is thinking about a spring offensive with new improved armor.

  19. 19.

    trollhattan

    I hope everybody will indulge me a large entry in honor of the day, and what occurred beginning this night in 1914, on the Western Front. Captain Jack Armes of the 1st Battalion North Staffordshire Regiment.

    24/12/14

    I have just been through one of the most extraordinary scenes imaginable. To-night is Xmas Eve and I came up into the trenches this evening for my tour of duty in them. Firing was going on all the time and the enemy’s machine guns were at it hard, firing at us. Then about seven the firing stopped.

    I was in my dug-out reading a paper and the mail was being dished out. It was reported that the Germans had lighted their trenches up all along our front. We had been calling to one another for some time Xmas wishes and other things. I went out and they shouted “no shooting” and then somehow the scene became a peaceful one. All our men got out of their trenches and sat on the parapet, the Germans did the same, and they talked to one another in English and broken English. I got on top of the trench and talked German and asked them to sing a German Volkslied, which they did, then our men sang quite well and each side clapped and cheered the other.

    I asked a German who sang a solo to sing one of Schumann’s songs, so he sang The Two Grenadiers splendidly. Our men were a good audience and really enjoyed his singing.

    Then Pope and I walked across and held a conversation with the German officer in command.

    One of his men introduced us properly, he asked my name and then presented me to his officer. I gave the latter permission to bury some German dead who are lying in between us, and we agreed to have no shooting until 12 midnight to-morrow. We talked together, 10 or more Germans gathered round. I was almost in their lines within a yard or so. We saluted each other, he thanked me for permission to bury his dead, and we fixed up how many men were to do it, and that otherwise both sides must remain in their trenches.

    Then we wished one another goodnight and a good night’s rest, and a happy Xmas and parted with a salute. I got back to the trench. The Germans sang Die Wacht Am Rhein it sounded well. Then our men sang quite well Christians Awake, it sounded so well, and with a goodnight we all got back into our trenches. It was a curious scene, a lovely moonlit night, the German trenches with small lights on them, and the men on both sides gathered in groups on the parapets.

    At times we heard the guns in the distance and an occasional rifle shot. I can hear them now, but about us is absolute quiet. I allowed one or two men to go out and meet a German or two half way. They exchanged cigars, a smoke and talked. The officer I spoke to hopes we shall do the same on New Year’s Day, I said “yes, if I am here”. I felt I must sit down and write the story of this Xmas Eve before I went to lie down. Of course no precautions are relaxed, but I think they mean to play the game. All the same, I think I shall be awake all night so as to be on the safe side. It is weird to think that to-morrow night we shall be at it hard again. If one gets through this show it will be an Xmas time to live in one’s memory. The German who sang had a really fine voice.

    Am just off for a walk around the trenches to see all is well. Goodnight.

    Xmas Day.

    We had an absolutely quiet night in front of us though just to our right and left there was sniping going on. In my trenches and in those of the enemy opposite to us were only nice big fires blazing and occasional songs and conversation. This morning at the Reveille the Germans sent out parties to bury their dead. Our men went out to help, and then we all on both sides met in the middle, and in groups began to talk and exchange gifts of tobacco, etc. All this morning we have been fraternising, singing songs. I have been within a yard in fact to their trenches, have spoken to and exchanged greetings with a Colonel, Staff Officers and several Company Officers. All were very nice and we fixed up that the men should not go near their opponents trenches, but remain about midway between the lines. The whole thing is extraordinary. The men were all so natural and friendly. Several photos were taken, a group of German officers, a German officer and myself, and a group of British and German soldiers.

    The Germans are Saxons, a good looking lot, only wishing for peace in a manly way, and they seem in no way at their last gasp. I was astonished at the easy way in which our men and theirs got on with each other.

    We have just knocked off for dinner, and have arranged to meet again afterwards until dusk when we go in again and have [illegible] until 9pm, when War begins again. I wonder who will start the shooting! They say “Fire in the air and we will”, and such things, but of course it will start and tomorrow we shall be at it hard killing one another. It is an extraordinary state of affairs which allows of a “Peace Day”. I have never seen men so pleased to have a day off as both sides.

    Their opera singer is going to give us a song or two tonight and perhaps I may give them one. Try and imagine two lines of trenches in peace, only 50 yards apart, the men of either side have never seen each other except perhaps a head now and again, and have never been outside in front of their trenches. Then suddenly one day men stream out and nest in friendly talk in the middle. One fellow, a married man, wanted so much a photo of Betty and Nancy in bed, which I had, and I gave him it as I had two: It seems he showed it all round, as several Germans told me afterwards about it. He gave me a photo of himself and family taken the other day which he had just got.

    Well must finish now so as to get this off to-day. Have just finished dinner. Pork chop. Plum pudding. Mince pies. Ginger, and bottle of Wine and a cigar, and have drunk to all at home and especially to you my darling one. Must go outside now to supervise the meetings of the men and the Germans.

    Will try and write more in a day or two. Keep this letter carefully and send copies to all. I think they will be interested. It did feel funny walking over alone towards the enemy’s trenches to meet someone half-way, and then to arrange a Xmas peace. It will be a thing to remember all one’s life.

    Kiss the babies and give them my love. Write me a long letter and tell me all the news. I hope the photos come out all-right. Probably you will see them in some paper.

    Yours, Jake

  20. 20.

    Jay

    @oldster:

    people who don’t have to fix stuff, don’t understand fixing stuff.

    I have two hydraulic punches in for “warranty’ repair. On the first one, they “lost” the back half of the hydraulic check valves, broke the reservoir bladder and cross threaded the aluminum housing.

    $1600 tool now needing $600 in repairs, ( when it was probably just low on oil),

    the other, they took it apart and lost the front half.

    Yes, those o rings, springs and ball checks do stuff.

    Have a 350′ FlexSnake in for repair. They shattered the front housing, lost the on/off switch, and according to a diagnostic, 6 months ago, (may be, maybe not), the snake shuts off after 2 minutes of run time. It’s a computer controlled motor, that is supposed to sense resistance and increase torque, so diagnosing what is actually wrong is a big deal.

  23. 23.

    planetjanet

    I wish you a very Merry Christmas, sir and offer my gratitude for your carefully curated posts and insights.

  24. 24.

    trollhattan

    @Jay: Here’s another.

    For a donation to army you can sign a HIMARS rocket and get a picture of it Donation – $1,500$
    How to make an order?  http://SignMyRocket.com
    On the site, you can also find other options to sign: artillery shells, M777, video of firing, Mig-29.

    Unclear if I’m signing the MIG 29, or bits of an RU MIG 29 that plowed some Ukrainian wheat field.

  25. 25.

    oldster

    @Jay:

    You’re exactly right about that, and the examples you give are on point. Every tank is a thousand bolts, a hundred o-rings, and a dozen hydraulic systems, plus a big old truck-sized engine in the middle. And it is subjected to the worst conditions and the worst treatment, as a matter of course.

    Unmaintained, a tank would probably give you 6 or 8 hours of service before it lost combat effectiveness. After that, it needs some small fixes. After 20 hours, it needs some bigger fixes. After 100 hours, extensive work. And that’s if no one hits it with a missile or a mine.

    Sorry to hear about your troubles, though. I wish there were better training programs for mechanics — I’m a big fan of universities, but I think a lot of kids would be better off with an apprenticeship than with a B.A., and I think America would be better off with more people who knew how to fix things.

  26. 26.

    Ksmiami

    After careful research and reading and talking to relatives across Eastern Europe, the only acceptable outcome is the destruction of the current Russian state. Anything less than this contains more danger

  27. 27.

    oldster

    @trollhattan:

    Thanks for posting that letter. Do you have a source or link for it?
    Alas that the Christmas Truce of 1914 was so short-lived, and followed by so many million deaths.

  28. 28.

    trollhattan

    @oldster: I’m a big fan of universities, but I think a lot of kids would be better off with an apprenticeship than with a B.A., and I think America would be better off with more people who knew how to fix things.

    I get it. But universities aren’t drawing people away from the trades, kids instead go into “whatever job I can find” out of high school instead of continuing their education in such technical fields. And yet, community colleges offer many such occupations (nearby, one can learn HVAC, aerospace maintenance, cosmetology, pre-nursing, CADD, GIS, etc. First two years are free tuition.)

    Germany definitely does this better.

  30. 30.

    Jay

    @oldster:

    I do fine. CSI broke stuff a lot. Basic understanding of mech, hydraulics, electric, computer. Basic tool stuff like sharp, let the tool do the work, etc.

    Too many users, are just BFI, (brute force and ignorance).

    Really, you dropped $1600 plus on a tool, it’s under warranty, and you decide to take it apart and lose key components. Stripping a cable cutter for repair parts, good up to 3/4″ mild steel aircraft cable, got a 1″ hardened tool steel cable embedded in the jaw, the cutter head had sheared. Gerry was “why are you taking it apart like that, takes time”.I pointed out that the 1/2 inch tool steel cutter had partially sheared, was under 12,000lbs of pressure, and if not carefully taken apart, would explode throwing 1/2′ chunks of steel all around the workshop.

    Gerry said, “oh, yeah”.

  32. 32.

    Carlo Graziani

    Happy holidays, Adam, and thanks for soldiering on. Hi, all you all, happy, merry, jolly, etc. to all of you as well.

    And to everyone in Ukraine, thank you for a year’s lesson in courage, resolution, fortitude, and dignity.

  33. 33.

    JAFD

    @trollhattan: ​
    My mother (may she rest in peace) was the office manager for one of the construction trades union offices. I thought of applying to an apprenticeship program, maybe I’d have lived a happier life if I had done so….
    Anyway, if you know any youngsters who may be interested, it’s a challenging but rewarding career. I don’t know offhand where to get more info, but if you have WaterGirl drop me a message, will see if I can find places to start in your area.
    Thank you again, Mr. Silverman.
    Happy Holidays / Merry Christmas To all jackals and lurkers, families and friends. And to all the Ukrainians fighting “for your freedom and ours”, God bless and keep you, and confound our enemies.

  34. 34.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: @oldster: Everything you say is spot on. But all of it was also true of HIMARS, which is also an eye-wateringly complicated weapons system, with a lengthy maintenance protocol requiring extensive training of service personnel, laying in of specialized maintenance facilities with full access to parts and tools sufficiently close to the deployment area, etc.  Mark Hertling went on at length about this on a thread in June (I think), pointing out that the picture of “a pickup truck with rockets” that was going around was just wrong, and that it takes NATO many months to deploy the logistical chain required to set up that system in a new country.

    The point is, I have not yet seen the detailed argument explaining why Abrams is qualitatively different from HIMARS, rather than simply requiring more time and effort (say).

  37. 37.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: I don’t know how to respond except to bow down.  I want to say “my god, my god” but I’m an atheist.  The strength of these people.

  38. 38.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ksmiami: I think we should remember that there’s a difference between the destruction of the Russian state, and the Russian people.  I’ve read enough at Window on Eurasia (over the last 5-6 years) that I’m convinced that Russia is a “prison of nations”, and for the imprisoned peoples of the Russian Federation to have any real chance at freedom and real life-chances, the reign of “Moskovy”, of the Moscow/St Petersburg metropole, must be ended.

    And that, *that* is the same as the destruction of the Russian state.  Kamil Galeev (a Tatar) has said it well: that the various subject peoples of the Russian Federation may live, the Russian Federation must die.

  39. 39.

    way2blue

    Thank you Adam.  I wish the Ukrainian people a new year that crushes the Russian myth of imperial greatness.  Slava Ukraini.  Heroyam Slava.

  42. 42.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: When the time comes to conclude the war, we will all be forced to remember this:

    There are potential outcomes consistent with what the Ukrainians achieve by their military victories, which are plausible and desirable to a Ukrainian nation desperately in need of rebuilding itself after a devastating conflict, and which the Ukrainians will choose from pragmatic interest and exhaustion, because war does that.

    There are also outcomes that serve moral right, such as expecting the destruction of the Russian Federation, its colonial empire, and its works.

    The two are unlikely to overlap much.  It will be necessary to choose.  And the choice could be every bit as unpalatable as, say, the “choice” faced by the Western Allies in 1945 between peace at the cost of acquiescing in Soviet control of Poland and Czechoslovakia, versus extending the war indefinitely by attempting to push the Russians back (not that this was ever seriously contemplated except by nutters like Patton).

    The name of this game is “achievable objectives.” If (as seems quite possible) an outcome of the war—besides Ukraine finally escaping from Russian thrall—is the survival of the Russian Federation in much diminished and chastened form,  too preoccupied with with its internal divisions to present much of an international problem, then in my view we should regard that as a win, rather than as a missed opportunity.

  43. 43.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani:

    It will be necessary to choose.

    I’m reminded of that scene from Firefly, where a bad guy named Niska poses what he believes is a choice to Zoe: to choose between her captain, and her husband.  Before he can get the description of the choice out of his mouth, she’s already responded with “Wash” (her husband).  In that same vein, this isn’t a choice: between the peoples of Russia, and of Ukraine, the choice is always: the peoples of Ukraine, or more precisely, their choice, whatever it might be.

    The  Ukrainians get to make the choice, and whatever choice they make, I’ll be OK with.  I would hope that the same is true for our leaders.

  44. 44.

    Ruckus

    @oldster:

    I used to design, and build complex precision molds for plastic and die cast products, along with precision machining. Many people used to work apprenticeship programs to learn the work because it takes most people 10 yrs to become good at this. I’ve seen people do extremely good in 8 yrs. Learning to do the basics didn’t take anywhere near as long. But apprenticeships are a good start but the work is dirty and there is risk of injury. And we as a country do not do as much of this kind of work as we used to do because other countries have better educational programs for these kinds of jobs and often the work is well regarded, rather than just something to do. Over the decades we have become a country that does less basic work and purchase products from overseas, because it is often cheaper. We are losing the concepts of technical work building stuff, partially because we regard it as “dirty” work and of course we are better than that. We seem to accept less is more and often it is for the money people, but that can leave a lot of people out of possibilities.

  45. 45.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: George Pattonsaid a lot of stuff for effect. I think he knew that going to war against the Soviet Union was a bad idea that would not happen. At the time, though there was a certain amount of pushing and pulling between the US and Russian ocupying forces over their respective rights and prerogatives. In that context, Patton’s big talk was gamesmanship, I think. As his commander, Bradley admonished him, the Soviets were likely monitering their phone call. But Patton knew this.

    George Patton was a complex figure who was simplified by different sides in the larger debates after his death. His role in popular history remends me of the advice given at the end of a movie, The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance: “Print the legend.”

  46. 46.

    Bill Arnold

    Long Wall Street Journal piece, for those with access (or “bypass paywalls”):
    Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line Advisers – Russia’s president built a power structure designed to deliver him the information he wants to hear, feeding into his miscalculations on the Ukraine war (Evan Gershkovich, Thomas Grove, Drew Hinshaw, Joe Parkinson, Dec. 23, 2022)

    Too much to quote, but here are a few paragraphs that sample the flavor:

    Mr. Putin wakes daily around 7 a.m. to a written briefing on the war, with information carefully calibrated to emphasize successes and play down setbacks, according to the former Russian intelligence officer and current and former Russian officials.
    He has long refused to use the internet for fear of digital surveillance, Russian and U.S. officials have said, making him more dependent on briefing documents compiled by ideologically aligned advisers.

    To receive what he believes is raw information from the front, Mr. Putin has recruited four of the most popular pro-war voices on Russian social media, a mix of state TV journalists, war correspondents and pro-Kremlin propagandists who have been embedding with the army, according to people familiar with the matter. The influencers are tasked with helping a new Kremlin-run working group produce a monthly report on the progress of Russia’s troop mobilization, according to a presidential decree published on the Kremlin’s website this month.

    Propaganda machine
    The system of self-deception was decades in the making, said Boris Bondarev, a career diplomat who resigned from his longtime post at Russia’s permanent mission to the United Nations in Geneva after the invasion.
    Diplomats at the mission learned during Mr. Putin’s two-decade rule to feed Moscow the story it wanted to hear, he said.
    Junior officials and senior directors knew that to win plaudits and promotions they should exaggerate good news and play down the bad, for fear of upsetting “papa,” a nickname for Mr. Putin, once used for Russian czars.

  47. 47.

    Bill Arnold

    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24 (criticalthreats.org, Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Madison Williams and Frederick W. Kagan, December 24, 2022)
    This paragraph is eye-catching (bold in original):

    Russian siloviki may be setting information conditions to justify the nationalization of oligarchs’ resources to sponsor Russia’s war effort.> Wagner financier Yeveniy Prigozhin attended the funeral of a deceased Wagner Group mercenary in St. Petersburg on December 24, where he stated that Russia needs to confiscate luxury possessions and accommodations from elites who ignore or do not support the war effort out of fear of losing their privileged lifestyles.[7] Prigozhin added that these affluent individuals support a vision where ”Western curators” dominate Russia in return for the sponsorship of their lifestyles and compared today’s Russian oligarchy to Ukraine’s or to 1990s Russia. Prigozhin ignited a scandal regarding the burial of the Wagner serviceman in recent weeks to push his political objectives — such as the legalization of Wagner in Russia — and his statements advocating redistribution of wealth at the funeral gained significant traction on the Russian internet.[8] Wagner-affiliated milbloggers widely supported Prigozhin’s criticism of Russian officials and praised his support for the war effort.[9] Prigozhin may be using such populist proposals to elevate his authority in Russian society or influence a return of stricter nationalization measures.

  49. 49.

    J R in WV

    @Bill Arnold:

    Quoting the WSJ:

    Mr. Putin wakes daily around 7 a.m. to a written briefing on the war, with information carefully calibrated to emphasize successes and play down setbacks, according to the former Russian intelligence officer and current and former Russian officials.

    Who in the US does this description remind us of? How can anyone [let alone someone (TFG or Putin!) with faulty thought processes!] make good strategic decisions when being misinformed in daily morning briefings??

    No wonder Putin’s war is not going well, their supreme leader is living in a twisted fantasy world ! Good luck with that plan…

    ETA:  Last?  . . . . . . . .          ;~)

  50. 50.

    charon

    @J R in WV:

    Diplomats at the mission learned during Mr. Putin’s two-decade rule to feed Moscow the story it wanted to hear, he said.

    That looks a lot like the relationship the CIA had to Bush and Cheney circa 2002. Bush/Cheney had a big appetite for curated raw data too.

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