January 6 Report Is Real, And It's Spectacular by @5DollarFeminist https://t.co/OpcEGD4DBb
— Wonkette (@Wonkette) December 26, 2022
Best short analysis I’ve run across, thank you Liz Dye:
Who wants to read the entire 845-page January 6 Select Committee Final Report?
Oh, nobody?
Fine, then. We’ll do it for you….
‘Frankly We DID Win This Election.’
Our story picks up on on election night at the White House when a drunk Giuliani told Trump to go out and declare victory, even after Fox News called Arizona for Joe Biden. Everyone else urged caution, but Trump waddled out before the cameras and started yelling about fraud — even before his team had decided exactly which Black civil servants to pin a target on…Frankly, he did not win this election. In fact, he lost the popular vote by 4.5 percent, although it was alarmingly close in some of the swing states. But it was frankly unsurprising that Trump falsely declared victory on election night with tens of millions of ballots uncounted. Indeed, his allies telegraphed that punch with total clarity.
Thanks to Mother Jones, we’ve all heard the tape of Steve Bannon on Halloween bragging that the president was “just gonna say he’s a winner” and “take advantage” of the late counting of absentee and mail-in ballots, which overwhelmingly favored Biden…
Team Comparatively Normal vs. Team Fuckbonkers
After the election, the campaign descended into two factions. Stepien described himself and attorneys Justin Clark, Alex Cannon, and Matthew Morgan as leading up “Team Normal,” which is only accurate by comparison to the team of crackpot loons led by Rudy Giuliani. It’s easy to call yourself “normal” relative to a pile of broken toys that includes Sidney Powell, Lin Wood, John Eastman, Jenna Ellis, Christina Bobb, and Jeff Clark, all of them twitching and making weird noises about Italian space lasers and Chinese Bluetooth thermostats. A “normal” person wouldn’t have signed on to represent a racist circus clown and enthusiastically applauded for months as he told egregious lies, heedlessly destroying civic unity and Americans’ faith in the electoral process in service of his own selfish goals.
But okay, according to their own post facto, entirely self-serving testimony, “Team Comparatively Normal” told Trump that he’d lost on November 7 after all the networks called the election for Biden, describing the prospects of a victory as “5, maybe 10 percent … very, very, very bleak.” In reality, there was a zero percent chance. But having given their assessment, TCN courageously … ceded the field to Rudy and the weirdos…
The Road To The Capitol
The committee goes to great lengths to debunk Trump’s lies about election fraud. They point to hand recounts in Michigan and Georgia, confirming the original tallies, as well as Trump’s repeated references to “suitcases” of fraudulent ballots, even after being told by his own Justice Department that this was totally false. We don’t have to spend a lot of time on that here, because presumably you’re not a mouth-breathing MAGAt, brain poisoned by OAN. But Trump attesting in a legal filing to numbers about supposed fraud in Georgia, when he knew those numbers were false, has already been described by a federal judge as “likely” criminal, and may form the basis of a future prosecution.But just as importantly, Trump fed these lies to his credulous supporters, who believed them because they implicitly trusted that the leader of our country would not rely on totally made up numbers. And he continued to repeat those lies to the mob on January 6…
Sure, we all giggled at the cosplay electors. We laughed at the Kraken lawsuits. Rudy leaking hair dye at the RNC and convening a press conference in the parking lot of a landscaper across from the porno store was legitimately hilarious. And yet there is a direct through line from these ridiculous people and their obvious bullshit to the mob that descended on the Capitol on January 6.
TL, DR, lock them up. Or, if we can’t do that, figure out how to fix this country so this shit never happens again. Because next time, our adversaries probably won’t be this bloody stupid.
This behind-the-scenes account of how the Jan. 6 committee did its work is really good. [Gift link, should work for all.]
Two comments:
1.) Pelosi!
2.) Reading this, you realize the chances of anything like it being allowed to happen again are near zero. https://t.co/6vS1XkVj7u— Jay Rosen (@jayrosen_nyu) December 23, 2022
… The most consequential congressional committee in generations was immersed in high drama from beginning to end. It originated six months after a domestic siege of the Capitol. It devoted a year to seeking evidence from sources who were often reluctant or even hostile. It then presented that evidence in the form of captivating televised hearings that were watched by more than 10 million Americans at a time, leading up to the November 2022 midterms in which a clear majority cast their ballots against election denialism. And then the committee concluded its work by making history with its criminal referrals of a former president to the Department of Justice.
But the inner workings of the Jan. 6 committee — members of Congress, lawyers, video producers and assorted staff members totaling about 80 people tasked with investigating a violent attack on American democracy and a sitting president’s role in that attack — have been almost completely shrouded from public view. Through extensive interviews with all nine of the committee’s members and numerous senior staff members and key witnesses, we have been able to reconstruct a previously unreported account of the committee’s fevered, fraught and often chaotic race to a finish line that has always been understood to be Jan. 3, 2023, when the new Congress is sworn in and a new Republican majority in the House would immediately dissolve the committee. Those same efforts took place at a time when the Republican Party was resolutely united behind the committee’s principal target, Trump, with politicians and voters alike joining the former president in lustily condemning the inquiry at every opportunity…
[The NYTimes *really* wants to fluff Liz Cheney’s reputation, no surprise.]
With its expiration date of Jan. 3 looming, the committee spent its final months in a frenzy of activity occasionally marred by bitter contentiousness. Cheney, unsurprisingly, was at the center of the conflicts. One point of disagreement was over her insistence that the committee make criminal referrals of Trump; John Eastman, the lawyer who advised Trump that Pence could overturn the election; and others to the Justice Department, which initially struck Lofgren as an empty symbolic gesture, until Thompson stepped in and helped form a consensus around Cheney’s position.
Far more controversial internally was Cheney’s adamant position that the committee’s final report focus primarily on Trump’s misconduct, while marginalizing the roles of violent domestic actors, their financial organizers and their sympathizers in law enforcement. Informed of this decision in early November, current and former staff members anonymously vented their outrage to news outlets. Some members aligned themselves with the dismayed staff, while other members agreed with Cheney that some of the chapters drafted by different aides did not measure up to the committee’s standards. Still, it seemed excessive to some on the committee when Cheney’s spokesperson claimed to The Washington Post on Nov. 23 that some of the staff members submitting draft material for the report were promoting a viewpoint “that suggests Republicans are inherently racist.”…
In this story of how the Jan. 6 hearings got made, one high point is the appearance of David Brooks. https://t.co/6vS1XkVj7u pic.twitter.com/yI2OwBbpKA
— Jay Rosen (@jayrosen_nyu) December 23, 2022
TL;DR…
This thread presents a brief summary of the substantive findings of the Final Report of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol. My own interpretations of the report will follow later. 0/
— Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) December 26, 2022
@sryslysmibuch Bonjour, please find the unroll here: https://t.co/UgMmgBiIuW Enjoy :) ??
— Thread Reader App (@threadreaderapp) December 26, 2022
Baud
Brooks is an idiot.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: Breaking!!!
RepubAnon
David Brooks shown to be a useless bag of vomited words? Shocking!
Geminid
@Baud: And Representative Pete Aguilar is a very bright and capable man. Aguilar could be called “the other Mayor Pete,” having served as Mayor of Redlands, California before flipping his southern California Congressional seat. At age 43 and Caucus Chairman, Aguilar is the youngest member of the Democrats’ new leadership team of Jeffries, Rice and Aguilar.
Alison Rose
Nice Seinfeld throwback, Wonkette.
Also too, fuck David Brooks forever.
Except no, don’t. No one fuck him. Please. He’s got one spawn out there and this world doesn’t need any more.
oldster
Jay Rosen:
“Reading this, you realize the chances of anything like it being allowed to happen again are near zero.”
Anything like what? What’s the “it”?
Is he saying there’s no chance of another insurrection in the Capitol?
Or is he saying that there’s no chance of another House investigation committee?
Or another investigation into the insurrection of Jan 6, 2021?
I wish that people who write for a living would try to introduce fewer ambiguities into their writing.
Gravenstone
@Baud: The man knows who signs his check. And as importantly, who pulls their strings.
piratedan
so… in short Liz was happy to offer up Trump as the sacrifice that must be made but wanted to keep the J6ers from performing the needed purge of her own party as accomplices….
Gin & Tonic
I’m lazy. Is there still a Government Printing Office that distributes something like this at low cost? Or is it all “privatized” now?
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
Coming soon.
https://bookstore.gpo.gov/
JaySinWA
@oldster: Following the twitter link someone asked the same question. Was that you? Anyway Rosen answers “the committee”.
sab
@Baud: He is not an idiot. He is a bad faith actor with too much stature amonst the tote bag crowd.
Scout211
@oldster: On his Twitter.that question was asked and he replied the “it” was the committee.
Also, sadly Jamie Raskin announced he has been diagnosed with cancer.
ETA: link fixed to the Raskin story.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: to borrow Molly Ivins’s line about Ronald Reagan, if the man had a brain he’d take it out and play with it.
Geminid
@oldster: Sounds like Rosen meant the possibility of another House committee investigation like this one, on any subject. It would not have been too great a strain on his fingers to type that out.
I sometimes think this about all the acronyms people here keep tossing around.
sab
@oldster: My guess is no chance of another cohesive, effective committee. I think in the short run he is right and in the long run he is wrong.
JaySinWA
@piratedan: She may not believe it yet but it’s not her party. [and she can cry if she wants to]
I think she is trying to protect much of the financial side, or limit the damage to her personally if everyone involved gets publicly outed. With any luck the knives will come out behind the scene, perhaps without fingerprints on them.
Baud
@Geminid: i expect the GOP will rethink it’s strategy of boycotting future committees.
Scout211
Mark Meadows burned documents in his office fireplace a dozen times during the transition period according to Cassidy Hutchinson’s statement.
Danielx
David Brooks, as ever with the keen insight.
Geminid
@Baud: Speaker Pelosi sure pantsed Kevin McCarthy that time!
But McCarthy was just obeying the orders of a certain Stable Genius.
sab
OT: my stepdaughter lives in one of those old (built 1910 to 1930) urban neighborhoods with big houses in tiny yards converted into apartments.
Her next door neighbor, an elderly guy who owns his whole house, decided to go off the grid and stop paying for utilities. So he has been heating his house with a combination of wood in the fireplaces and a torpedo propane heater he has been using inside. This morning he managed to blow the place up, catch it on fire and also blow out most of the windows on the block and also burn up the other neighbor’s kitchen. His house is totalled. My stepdaughter’s apartment is a bit scorched on one side but otherwise okay. The downstairs neighbor lost windows on one side. The street is covered with bricks blown off from somewhere.
Nobody was killed. The old guy has some burns. The firemen have been fightimg the fire since 11 am, but it keeps going because propane tanks around everywhere. 7 pm here now.
Stepdaughter isn’t allowed home yet. So she and the kids are off to stay with friends while her cousin is taking the dog for now. What a stupid mess.
Geminid
@Scout211: One big question is- has Mark Meadows flipped?
My Atlanta friend joked that Meadows and his attorney might meet with prosecutors and tell them he’s finally decided to flip on Trump. But they’ll tell him “Sorry, it’s too late. Trump has flipped on you.”
Jay C
@Baud:
Yes: and I’m sure their “strategy” will be to empanel exclusively Republican committees (now that Tulsi Gabbard isn’t in Congress), and control the media input and output to the level of what one would expect to see on OANN – who will, of course, be their primary audience.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
She and her husband are politically-connected lawyers, her parents were said be worth tens of millions in 2000 (around 50M, as I recall). She’s a hero to the Establishment and the Blob. I think she’s finished in electoral politics, but other than that, she can enjoy a long and comfortable life in– if those zoom hearings I recall are any indication– a really beautiful chalet-style mansion that I’m guessing has really beautiful views of the Tetons
Maybe her sister will even start speaking to her again.
Scout211
Another tidbit that TPM pointed out is that Trump wasn’t aware that his daily schedule was public until the last few weeks of his presidency.
Danielx
@sab:
Surprised the old guy is alive at all if he’s been heating with a torpedo. Those things pump out carbon monoxide like a fire hose.
Alison Rose
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: LOLLLLL somehow I’d never heard that one. God, she really was a national treasure.
Chief Oshkosh
@Baud: Yet so many left-leaning people I know think he’s erudite. Unfortunately I’ve upset some of them by walking them through what a wanker he is. I really upset some of them by additionally pointing out that his fellow shill, The Moustache of Understanding, Thomas Friedman, is ALSO wrong about almost everything AND is a warmonger.
Tenar Arha
@sab: Oh my. Thank goodness she & kids weren’t home. I hope the dog isn’t too traumatized. Hope everything with her building & neighborhood gets straightened out soon.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
was this piece in last Sunday’s dead-tree edition? or next week’s?
Amir Khalid
@sab:
¿Por que no los dos?
Baud
@Chief Oshkosh:
We are doomed.
LeftCoastYankee
David Brooks is a stopped clock where the cuckoo stole the hands a long time ago.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
one thing I learned on a podcast today (called Jack, in which Andy McCabe has partnered up with Allison Gill, the once-anonymous Mueller, She Wrote podcaster to discuss the Jack Smith investigation/etc, because that’s how we roll in 2022), is that Cassidy Hutchinson’s attorney is Jody Hunt, who was high up in the trump DoJ from Jeff Sessions to the toilet salesman and under Fat Willie Barr almost till the end
McCabe said that Hunt was present in at least two meetings with trump that McCabe was summoned to, and was a distinctly unfriendly presence. Politics, bedfellows and whatnot
WaterGirl
@oldster:
I share your annoyance with the lack of clarity.
WaterGirl
@Baud: hahahahaha
Another Scott
@sab: Zooks! What a horror.
I’m glad everyone is reasonably Ok.
I’m not an MD, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the old guy has some undiagnosed dementia. Small strokes can do damage that can be hidden but build up over time. It’s not rational (or safe) to do the things he was doing…
I figure in 50-100 years, we’ll be able to diagnose and maybe even treat (or even better, prevent!) such brain injuries and diseases. Until then, we have to hope that someone figures out a way to get people like that help – before they do so much damage…
Good luck to everyone concerned.
Best wishes,
Scott.
SiubhanDuinne
@Scout211:
Oh my god, what that family has been through. Jamie is a treasure. I hope they caught it early enough that his chances are good for recovery and long-term survival.
SiubhanDuinne
@sab:
Yikes! What a terrifying event. I’m glad everyone is okay, in a situation that (obviously) should never have happened.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Totebaggers listen to him to prove how broad minded they are.
Citizen Alan
@piratedan: I remain convinced that Liz Cheney’s sole objection to the 1/6 Insurrection was that it was undertaken in support of President Donald Trump and not President Jeb Bush (in whose hypothetical administration I imagine she’d have held a high-ranking position).
Geminid
@JaySinWA: The deep dark secret Liz Cheney’s trying to conceal is that Dick and Lynn Cheney adopted her, from the Whoville Orphanage.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Which episode of Jack was that in? Because I don’t remember that part.
So Jody Hunt is Cassidy Hutchinson’s new attorney? Not the one who said she could pretend to not remember?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Yes, he replaced the guy who she says encouraged her to lie. It was part of the discussion after the interview with Chuck Rosenberg
sab
@Tenar Arha: They were home. After the big bang they collected their important things ( computers, phones, winter wear) and rushed outside to the car with the dog. Smoke, sirens and firemen everywhere. They had to beat out the flames on the elderly neighbor who hadn’t realized his clothes were on fire.
Jackie
And, so it begins… maybe. It’s a win-win for President Biden!
“Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday promoted an editorial suggesting that he run as a third-party candidate if the Republican Party does not make him its 2024 presidential nominee.”
“On his Truth Social website, Trump posted a link to an editorial from MAGA publication American Greatness in which author Dan Gelernter compared Trump to the late President Teddy Roosevelt, whose unsuccessful third-party bid in 1912 handed the White House to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.
Gelernter concedes that Trump running as a third-party candidate in 2024 would likely also hand Democrats the White House, but he suggests it would be worth it to teach the Republican Party a lesson about defying its base.”
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-2024-2659035274/
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I guess I’ll have to listen to that one again. I was getting sort of cranky listening to Chuck Rosenberg. I normally like him and respect what he has to say, but he took a number of potshots at the Jan 6 committee, which I didn’t care for
edit: I understand that it’s tricky for the DOJ to build a case while there are public hearings going on, but the american people need to understand what happened and it was the Jan 6 committee’s job to tell the story.
I do wonder why the committee is choosing to make all those transcripts public instead of releasing those to the DOJ, and releasing them later to the public.
karen marie
@Chief Oshkosh: Don’t forget David Frum. I got into a bit of a back-and-forth with someone recently who was admiring something pithy that Frum said in regard to Ukraine. They insisted that we have to just ignore everything Frum has said and done prior to last week because “he’s anti-Trump” and “entitled to redemption.” My head literally exploded.
Jackie
@WaterGirl: I think it’s to get everything out before the J6 Committee is dissolved next month. Once the GQP is the House majority, the transcripts won’t be released.
Cheez Whiz
@JaySinWA: if you think of Liz fighting a turf war for control of the Republican Party and not so much fighting for democracy, her actions make a lot more sense.
UncleEbeneezer
@WaterGirl: Episode 4, the most recent episode which is really, really good. They talk about the challenges that 1/6 Committee dropping these transcripts publicly causes for DOJ (a point that Joyce White Vance also made on SistersInLaw podcast), the ethics violation and possible felony of Passantino (Hutchinson’s first attorney) coaching her to say she didn’t remember stuff that she actually did, how much of Hutchinson’s testimony is hearsay and won’t be admissible in court, and lots of other fascinating angles with Chuck Rosenberg (former FBI/DEA).
UncleEbeneezer
@Jackie: Please proceed, as they say…
James E Powell
The question is, what will change as a result of this? The committee did what they could, but ultimately it is up to the American voters who have been voting for Republicans to change their ways or none of this will mean a thing.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Alison Rose: I recognized the Seinfeld reference too! I was very proud of myself for doing that
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@UncleEbeneezer: I don’t listen to Sisters In Law… yet (Christ, do I need another podcast?) but I appreciate people like Rosenberg and Vance trying to remind people that a court of law is a bit more complicated than a Congressional committee in which, thanks to Kevin Step-On-His-Own-Dick McCarthy, anti-trump people have been able to tightly control the message. Too many people have convinced themselves that it’s a slam dunk case against trump.
That too. By my count, thirteen R Senators who voted to acquit trump were re-elected, and three more replaced by goons to their right. One thing no one seems terribly interested in the whole Santos imbroglio: Why voters in that swingy district voted for him by a nine point margin.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Scott: If he’s been poisoning himself with carbon monoxide, that could cause effective dementia all by itself. It’d just snowball.
phdesmond
@sab: holy macaroni!
Captain C
@Jackie: That would be wild, but I have a hard time seeing TFG organized enough to get himself on the ballot in enough states to matter, especially without Javanka around to help things along. On the other hand, it would be darkly hilarious to see, say, the Libertarian Party taken over by a rump Trump faction not long after the Mises people had their own takeover, provided they never came close to any actual power.
WaterGirl
@Jackie: Oh, of course, you are right!
I did think Chuck Rosenberg’s criticisms of the committee would be valid in a perfect world where there are no time constraints and no political parties who may or may not be in power in any given timeframe.
But we don’t live in a perfect world. I guess that’s what annoyed me about Rosenberg’s comments on Sunday’s podcast.
Sure Lurkalot
The Professional Left podcast (Driftglass and Blue Gal) has a sub series within called No Fair Remembering Things…the first 6 episodes are about Brooks, a Driftglass obsession for countless years. It’s worth listening to because he convinced me that in addition to Brooks being a suck-up windsock who’s invariably wrong, he’s evil too. That and those 2 peeps in the cornfield who do the podcast are earnest, funny and real.
Liz Cheney…go crawl under a rock. The people who stormed the capitol are not misled patriots, you sick fuck. And you voted for Trump, twice, and with his sick agenda pretty much all the time.
WaterGirl
@UncleEbeneezer: I listened to episode 4. All of the episodes so far, 1-4, in fact.
You will see by a couple of my comments that I was not all that impressed with Chuck Rosenberg’s take, for reasons that I have tried to outline.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I tried SistersInLaw and couldn’t even make it all the way through one episode. I thought there were some seriously wrong takes, and I was not impressed. I do like Joyce Vance but was not so impressed with the rest.
Geminid
@Jackie: What’s going on? Why this talk of an Independent run? If the Republican base is so behind Trump he ought to be able to win that nomination hands down.
I think Trump was hoping he could freeze the field with his lackluster campaign announcement. But DeSantis and the rest of his would-be challengers did not even bat an eyelash.
Now Trump knows he’ll have to fight for that nomination. I don’t think he’s up to the task, and he may realize that also.
phdesmond
@Chief Oshkosh: Brooks once wrote an amusing column. i almost photocopied it and mailed it to friends. (this was a long time ago.)
WaterGirl
@Sure Lurkalot: Cheney has been very useful on the committee, but she is not our friend. Allies in this one particular fight, but still a Republican believer. I am under no illusions that Cheney shares my values or the values of most democrats.
schrodingers_cat
@Jackie: Rawstory publishes stuff that Ds like to hear. I would wait for more corroboration.
schrodingers_cat
@Chief Oshkosh: He is Uriah Heep. Oh so ‘umble.
Citizen Alan
@Geminid: If his health bears up, I bet he will. At the end of the day, none of the top GOP contenders have the courage to stand up to him and risk alienating his death cult, while he still has carte blanch to, say, call someone’s wife ugly to a candidate’s face on national TV without anyone saying a word in the wife’sw defense.
marklar
@Baud: “Brooks is an idiot.”
Brooks occasionally writes columns about recent scientific discoveries. Around a dozen or so years ago, he had a section about a study that I had published. His column misinterpreted the discussion section of my article, so I wrote to let him know. His response told me a lot about him…he replied with “I understood what you wrote, but my interpretation is more interesting.”
I share that story with my students to let them know that whenever they read a reporter’s account of a journal article, they shouldn’t necessarily believe the accuracy of the colum.
Suzanne
David Brooks LMAO.
hilts
@oldster:
Agreed, Jay Rosen is often a very sloppy writer.
UncleEbeneezer
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: SIL is really great. They don’t go quite as deep as the Jack Podcast or the various Meidas Touch Podcasts (Legal AF etc.) but they are all attorneys, three of which have experience as Prosecutors so they have been very good about urging patience with the very slow process of the courts and the time it takes to build such large conspiracy cases. They’ve really helped me stay sane for the past two years. And Jill Wine-Banks worked on Watergate so she has some pretty unique insights.
They are also all women, so they have great insights on abortion, systemic sexism, discrimination against women etc. All in all a really great podcast for all the main legal stories of the week.
Ruckus
@James E Powell:
I see no redemption for those that voted for SFB, but especially those who still consider him human enough to vote for again. And yes I understand the concept that a lot of people have that money makes you smart, even though SFB lies about how much money he actually has/is worth, in the amount of 400% of what financial experts say what at best he’s worth. Add that to everything else he lies about and his truth meter is stuck somewhere around full of shit.
Wyatt Salamanca
Brooks is an idiot.
@Baud:
I see your comment and I raise you:
David Brooks on the PBS NewsHour 12/23/22
h/t https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/brooks-and-capehart-on-zelenskyys-visit-to-washington-and-defending-democracy-abroad
Ruckus
@Sure Lurkalot:
Is it possible that Liz just doesn’t like that SFB is so bad at everything he drags down the entire conservative concept, so those that think SFB was the worst possible candidate and yet still voted for him, twice, actually look like the conservatives they are, is pissed that SFB showed the entire world what conservatives look like and are?
Suzanne
@Wyatt Salamanca:
Aggggghhhhhhh.
This man writes for a living and yet he barfs out that kind of odious, pretentious vomit.
Matt McIrvin
@Geminid: Apparently Trump is still leading in the Republican primary polling. I’d thought otherwise because cherrypicked polls in which Trump is not ahead get extra media attention.
Tenar Arha
@sab: OMG. Wow. I wish them the chance & time to process the experience okay. Hope they have a super peaceful New Year’s.
Wyatt Salamanca
The George Santos show keeps rolling along:
h/t https://www.mediaite.com/tv/just-in-george-santos-under-federal-investigation-over-finances-per-cnn/
Jackie
@Geminid: I think it’s potential blackmail: if he doesn’t get the GQP nomination, he’ll run independently – thus throwing the ‘24 election to the Democrats.
Of course, should he win the GQP nomination, he’ll lose the election AGAIN.
Jackie
@schrodingers_cat: The original story is linked within the article.
Trump has hinted more than once he’ll run as an Independent. It’s not about what’s best for the Republican party – it’s all about his vanity.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Wyatt Salamanca: and apparently he once claimed his mother was killed on 9/11….
Scout211
@Wyatt Salamanca: I was about to post that.
The article on Semafor may have been the icing on the cake for prosecutors. He tries to explain his sudden wealth to the author.
Geminid
@Citizen Alan: Those other candidates were not ready for Trump in 2016, and in retrospect, they were a wimpy lot. Tougher candidates will be ready for Trump in 2024. DeSantis isn’t afraid of Trump, and neither are Christie and Pompeo.
Trump’s base is a subset of the Republican base. The people I know who voted for Trump did it despite their distaste for him. They do not want him to run again because they believe he will lose, and they are right.
The folks I’m talking about here are themselves a subset of the Republican base: upper middle class professionals of the type people used to call Volvo Republicans. I call them Range Rover Republicans now.
Another component of the Republican base that will defect from Trump are the conservative Evangelicals. Those folks are fairly irrational in their theology, but when it comes temporal power they can be as cold blooded and calculating as Karl Rove could ever be. The Pentacostals are enthusiasts but the Baptists have the clout, they want a winner and they are realistic enough to see that Trump is a loser.
Trump’s threat to run third party is a real threat, and if Trump does this the Republican nominee would certainly lose. He would probably lose even if Trump does not run but discourages his supporters from voting for the nominee.
But that nominee would not drag the entire ticket down like Trump would, in federal and state races. At this point, Trump is an almost existential threat to the Republicans, but they’ll fare far worse if they give in to his blackmail and let him head their ticket in 2024.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to win that nomination. He still has a path to victory. He may still have a B game, the others might cancel each other out, and Trump could win enough pluraity victories to get the nomination.
I think this is unlikely, though. I believe that Trump is a spent force.
Kent
I took it to mean the Republicans would never again make the mistake of letting the Democrats just run their own committee when they know there is real shit to be found.
HumboldtBlue
@Cheez Whiz:
Yup.
Anne Laurie
@Scout211: Since this has turned into Balloon Juice After Dark… Before the ‘Russian asset’ stories emerged, the ‘joke’ was that Santos first made his run-for-Congress money working as a high-end pimp and/or escort, because that would explain his high-gloss finish and smooove mannerisms. (Not to mention, the general Repub reluctance to press him about his murky past — nobody wants to out the guy with a Rolodex full of embarrassing numbers.)
Sure sounds like the “capital introduction business, including “deal building” and “specialty consulting” for “high net worth individuals”” is something into which a successful sex-for-hire-facilitator might upgrade… or at least aspire to upgrade.
A small-c cynic might suggest that moving from sex worker, to ‘special business consultant’ to ‘possibly unwitting Russian asset’ has the brassy ring of plausibility, yes?
Wyatt Salamanca
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
@Scout211:
Keeping my fingers crossed these investigations come up with a smoking gun that lead to an indictment against Santos. There are enough Republican assholes already serving in the House of Reps.
Mike in NC
Santos is like a creepier and younger version of Marco Rubio, but every other person on Long Island is a wingnut.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Starting to think he’s not so much an investment by the oligarch through the money-manager cousin than that the cousin was a mark for Santos
El Muneco
@Chief Oshkosh: I’m sure they’re happier now that they’ve realized they weren’t really left-leaning in the first place and can just be their real selves from now on…
Geminid
@Wyatt Salamanca: The smoking gun in the Santos case could be found in his relationship with Andrew Intrater, Santos’s biggest campaign donor. Intrater is a “money manager” for his cousin, Russian oligarch Victor Vekselberg. Some uncharitable observers call Intrater “Vekselberg’s bag man.”
Vekselberg made the news around Labor Day, when FBI agents with a search warrant visited his Long Island home and after several hours, carried out a number of evidence boxes. So, Federal investigators may already know plenty about Santos and the sources of his apparent wealth.
Interestingly, the New York Post, a paper well known for its public spirited journalism, put up a story this evening based on an interview with a former national security official. Santos, the official says, could be a major security risk.
lgerard
@Mike in NC:
Truth!
Geminid
@Wyatt Salamanca: I kind of take it for granted that Santos will eventually be indicted for serious crimes. My hope is that other Republican politicians wind up entangled in this mess.
Geminid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That’s possible. But this doesn’t seem like the way Russian oligarchs and their “money managers” do business.
kalakal
@Captain C: Trump’s always trying to present a Mob Boss persona, he’s doing a “nice party you’ve got here, shame if something happened to it” pose. It would be hilarious if neither side blinks and it actually happened. The best is that this would be a lose-lose for both sides no matter what.
Geminid
@Jackie: If Trump wins the nomination, he’ll not only lose but he’ll drag the rest of the Republicans’ candidates down with him.
kalakal
I for one would enjoy the the sight of TFGs crack legal team contesting the results of the GQP primary should he lose. Ideally TFG, DeathSantis, Pompeo et al would all be whipping up their supporters into a frenzy of competing “Stop the Steal” movements. Orville Redenbacher will become the world’s wealthiest company
Anyway
OT – received multiple fundraising emails and texts from Ruben Gallego. WTF we just finished an election cycle!!! So annoying.
Yes, I unsubbed and STOPed each one. Just don’t care for this trend of nationalizing every primary…
Jackie
@Geminid: I agree. Americans are voting for democracy. They’ve had enough of Trumpism.
Shalimar
@karen marie: Frum has always been pithy. It’s the talent that got him into politics. Doesn’t make him any less evil now than when he was writing lies for Bush.
Shalimar
@WaterGirl: I’m not even sure Liz Cheney shares our valuation of democracy. I have a strong belief that if it were her dad staging the insurrection instead of Trump, Liz would be right there with him playing the Meadows role and organizing far more competently than that idiot did.
Shalimar
@Geminid: We will see what happens, but I think you’re confusing media DeSantis for real DeSantis. Having seen him pout and whine repeatedly when his staged photo-ops go even slightly off script, I do not believe DeSantis is someone who can stand up to Trump’s boorish behavior with his reputation intact. His public image is almost entirely fake. He has very little personal charisma or spontaneity.
sab
@Jackie: Even in Ohio with its horrible election results, we voted for DeWine not the Trumpists. JD Vance criticicized Trump then slunk on board. He had Trump’s endorsement in the primary but nobody believed he actually liked Trump.
We went current nutzo Republican not Trump.
Which I find disturbing, but that is just me.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
Who is FSB? Not the same as TFG, is he?
Geminid
@Shalimar: I don’t neccesarily think DeSantis will prevail in a Republican nomination contest. When I look at the potential contenders, they all seem flawed. But someone has to win.
I’m saying that Trump is no longer a the 800lb. fearsome gorilla that vanquished the Republican establishment and then loomed larger than life in the minds of both his adherents and his opponents. He’s now a 350lb. mangy monkey who will prove to be a less formidable a candidate than even a flawed DeSantis or some other flawed Republican.. Trump may still poll better than his potential primary opponents right now, but I think his primary numbers will drop as his numbers in a potential general election matchup drop.
Like I said, Trump could still win with plurality victories in a crowded field, like he did in 2016. But for all their irrational policies and rhetoric, most Republicans will still want to win the general election. They’ll have to choose between Trump, who a year from now will clearly have no chance, and someone else who might have a chance. I think they will pick the latter.
Paul in KY
@Geminid: I need him to take down DeSatanum. He has to be up for that.
Paul in KY
@Geminid: Trump did bring to the table a bunch of supreme weirdos who usually never voted or wrote in Hitler’s name or voted Green.
Those voters helped him barely beat Hillary. Those voters the GQP wants to keep.
WaterGirl
@marklar:
Wow. Just wow.
Geminid
@Paul in KY: Republicans want to keep as many of these new voters as they can. Their dilemna is that if the try to keep them all they will keep hemorrhaging other voters repelled by appeals to the crazies.
This is the problem that keeps the Karl Roves up at night: how does the party ditch Trump and still keep his voters? As a practical matter, the solution will (I think) be ditching Trump and trying to mitigate the damage caused.
LiminalOwl
@sab: What an awful mess, and thank goodness it wasn’t even worse. My sympathyto your stepdaughter.
Paul in KY
@Geminid: Agree. They need to find another ‘Quasi-Trump’. Will be hard. It’s someone who has been on TV. That’s what gave TFG his ‘cachet’.
cmorenc
@Jackie:
By the time it’s clear to DT he won’t get the GOP nomination, will there be enough time for his minions to get him on the ballot as an independent in enough states to matter? Of course, he doesn’t need to qualify in every or even most, or even a majority of states to have an extremely consequential negative impact on the GOP candidate’s chances of winning the 2024 election. For example, if he qualifies in Missouri (10 ev) and Ohio (18) … thus diverting those electoral votes to a plurality D win…the D candidate only needs to find 242 electoral votes from other states to win. Add in the effect on even a couple of swingy states…and the D wins in an electoral landslide, even if Trump only wins around 10% in the handful of states he qualifies for as an independent.
cmorenc
@Geminid:
Even those folks who are already flying Trump 2024 banners and flags in their yard – replacing the 2020-vintage Trump Keep America Great flags they were flying?
Another Scott
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): SFB is Ruckus referring to Donnie – Shit For Brains
FSB = russia’s Federal Security Service (new name for the KGB)
SBF = Sam Bankman-Fried – the FTX crypto banker conman idiot who “didn’t mean to lose billions but you know, things happen…”
HTH!
😜
Cheers,
Scott.
Shalimar
@Geminid: I agree that Trump is severely weakened from where he was 26 months ago. I don’t think he is as weak as he was in December of 2015 yet. The most likely path is that he still gets the nomination because no one else is going to do better than Cruz did in 2016. As you say, all the challengers have serious flaws.
Chris T.
@Another Scott:
Diagnosis will come much sooner (within 20 years): there are blood tests for stroke now, they’re just impractical, and there’s a test for Alzheimer’s under development. Treatment, on the other hand, will be a while.