UPD: according to fresh data, there have been 69 missiles so far. 55 have been downed.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 29, 2022
Here’s the infographic the Ukrainian Air Force put out on their Facebook page:
That’s 54 Kh101s/Kh555s and 11 Shaheed 131s/136s brought down by Ukrainian Air Defense.
Here’s one of those kills:
Yeaaaaah!!! https://t.co/BUcygQzQ55
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 29, 2022
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
First of all, I want to thank our Air Forces servicemen, Ukrainian air defense, which successfully repelled another Russian attack today.
54 missiles and 11 attack drones were shot down.
Our warriors all over Ukraine distinguished themselves, and I thank all our Air Commands: Center, South, East and West.
And especially we are grateful to the warriors of the 96th Kyiv, 160th Odesa, 208th Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigades, whose results are the best today.
Unfortunately, there were several hits. Our power engineers and repair crews are doing everything to make Ukrainians feel the consequences of the terrorists’ strike as little as possible. And I thank everyone who is working to restore energy supply.
As of this evening, there are power outages in most regions of Ukraine. It is especially difficult in Kyiv region and the capital, Lviv region, Odesa and the region, Kherson and the region, Vinnytsia region and Zakarpattia.
But this is nothing compared to what could have happened, if it was not for our heroic anti-aircraft troops and air defense.
With each such missile strike, Russia is only driving itself deeper into a dead end. They have fewer and fewer missiles. Instead, the status of the biggest terrorist in the world will have consequences for Russia and its citizens for a long time. And each missile only confirms that all this must end with a tribunal. And that is exactly what will happen.
And despite all the strikes, the state works every day. The Office, the Cabinet of Ministers – everyone is working.
In particular, today I had two large meetings, economic and defense. We are working to ensure that our defenders have more opportunities, more weapons, more drones.
The situation on the frontline remained without significant changes over the last day.
The most acute situation is in Bakhmut, Soledar, over the entire line in the Donetsk region. The enemy has not abandoned the insane idea to capture the Donetsk region… Now they set themselves a task – for the New Year.
I am grateful to all our guys who have been proving to the occupiers for months that it is us who will set and achieve goals on our land.
I am grateful to everyone who defends the Ukrainian Donbas! To all who defend our Kharkiv region! To all who keep our south! Who protect our border…
And, by the way, I thank those border guards who, together with all the defense forces, are fighting the enemy at the front. I thank the warriors of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi and Mukachevo border guard detachments.
Dear Ukrainians!
There are two days left in this year. Perhaps, the enemy will try once again to make us celebrate the New Year in darkness. Perhaps, the occupiers are planning to make us suffer with the next strikes at our cities.
But no matter what they plan, we know one thing about ourselves: we will endure. For sure. We will drive them out. No doubts about that. And they will face punishment for this terrible war. The maximum punishment.
I thank everyone who defends our state! I thank everyone who fights for our independence!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Izium and Bakhmut:
IZIUM AXIS/ 1800 UTC 29 DEC/ RU is attempting to reduce pressure on Svatove with a series of attacks west of the urban area. Staging from the salient near the Andriivka reservoir, RU launched a number of company-sized attacks between Kryvoshyivka and Andriivka pic.twitter.com/OUUUjhba7I
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 29, 2022
BAKHMUT AXIS /2050 UTC 29 DEC/ After a lull, RU has resumed piecemeal attacks against the eastern suburbs. UKR forces are in contact near Podhorodne, north of the M-03 / T-13-02 intersection, and east of the O-0507 cut-off in the industrial area. pic.twitter.com/c6lWlvk5oA
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 29, 2022
For the last time, DougJ, stay out of my lane!!!
CLUELESS: The NYT says UKR’s 'hard line’ position is an obstacle to peace. Let me review: In 2014 Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of Luhansk, Donetsk & Crimea. In 2022 RU invaded again, destroying dozens of UKR cities. Kyiv wants RU to leave Ukraine. Is that unreasonable? pic.twitter.com/ddXKOVqSuK
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 29, 2022
I kid, I kid!
Ukrainska Pravda did an interview with one of the Ukrainian Air Force fighter pilots. Dmitri at WarTranslated translated it into English. Here’s a bit of the interview:
Interview with a well-known Ukrainian pilot Vadym Voroshylov with a call sign “Karaya”.
(Yevhen Rudenko): Vadym, when I first saw you in the media, I remembered the Russian pilot captured in Chernihiv. He was so… chubby. Is it the enemy’s problem with physique, or is it my stereotype about aviators who supposedly all have to be athletes?
(Vadym): (Smiles). It was Krasnoyartsev. I would not say that they have such a problem. But, indeed, we already have a new concept of flight personnel training. After 2014, the emphasis is more on young people as the main force of strike aviation. From the statistics of aircraft shootdowns, from those militaries who we captured, we see that these are… I can’t even say “boys” – adult men. We must understand: the younger a person is, the faster the brain works. It is very important in aviation.
(I): Some Russian pilots who were captured tried to convince that they did not know about the bombing of residential buildings because they were working according to the coordinates provided to them. Is it possible to believe this?
(V): I do not believe it at all. They have ordinary navigation systems like Garmin, touristic, in various modifications. Perhaps their public accepts propaganda (that Russian aviation does not hit peaceful targets – remark), but our society is quite literate. You do not need to be an aviator to understand: if a person enters latitude and longitude in a tourist navigator, they clearly see what is there. Of course, if the coordinate is entered within a certain settlement, it is immediately clear that you are working on the settlement. They do it like railway lines, as people say. This is an ordinary aircraft bomb, which has just a flight trajectory, and the accuracy of bombing depends on a bunch of factors, ranging from the skills of the pilot to meteorological conditions. Therefore, I do not believe in this legend.
(I): What is considered an accurate strike with low-precision weapons?
(V): I can say roughly: according to the standards, the enemy’s bombing is considered “excellent” if it is within plus or minus 50 meters. In urban conditions, even this is a huge error.
(I): Let’s imagine a hypothetical situation: you are ordered to bomb targets within residential areas. What will you do?
(V): We have already discussed this with our sworn brothers. Firstly, I do not want to talk about it hypothetically because it is impossible in theory. Our military and political leadership will not allow it. If we look at it more abstractly, the pilot and navigator in the Su-34 (the downed plane of Krasnoyartsev – UP) always see the target’s location, at least through navigation. Yes, they are given a task to perform. But no one will fire them, and no one will put them in prison if they drop bombs, for example, in an open field, at a distance of a kilometer or two from residential buildings, with overflight or underflight. It will just be a “mistake in piloting technique and poor training” – that’s all! So that’s all there is to it. But such an option could be considered if they were people. They fully and completely understand what they are doing. This is their traditional scorched earth tactic. This is what they have done before in Ichkeria, in Georgia, in Syria.
(I): How did you formulate your attitude toward the enemy? Is there something like respect for their pilots?
(V): We treat them not as a specific, living person but as air targets. They turn only into dry figures in the daily summary of the General Staff (losses of the Russian army – remark), no more.
Of course, there were cases of respect for enemy pilots in history, but a long time ago, in the First World War. Then there were more noble relations, if I may say so.
Back then, they declared war, signed the act of war, and then went to their positions. Now the enemy has been saying for several months that he was not going to attack, and then insidiously attacked peaceful cities of Ukraine in the morning.
(I): Is there something that most distinguishes our pilots from the enemy?
(V): There is a lot to say, but I will only say that we perform such tasks that technically were not even considered at the design stage of our aircraft.
We have very limited technical capabilities, but we do everything to destroy the enemy. We try to work effectively in more extreme conditions and are absolutely ready for anything.
The enemy, having an advantage, works as it is written in the textbooks on tactical and fire training. We use more modern methods, which are not written in any textbook of any country in the world.
(I): So, NATO pilots will have something to learn from ours after this war?
(V): Yes (smiles).
(I): Is it playing a cruel joke with the Russians that they have so much equipment? Do they act, as they say, “at ease” or not?
(V): You are right. But do not underestimate the enemy. He is dangerous. I have a negative attitude to the statements that there are some “chmony” and the rest. No! This is the enemy. They have a significant advantage in aircraft and ground air defense. They know how to work and learn from this war, just like we do.
When we talk about comfortable conditions for the enemy, we mean the ability of their fighter aircraft to operate without entering our air defense zone. But when they get into this zone, every time in the reports from the General Staff you see pluses opposite the destroyed air targets.
(I): Is there anything surprising among them? Maybe some specific types of aircraft?
(V): Yes, but not aircraft. It should be understood that a plane is more of a platform, a carrier of aviation means of destruction and that it is these means that can give an advantage in the air.
Recently, the Russians have developed long-range air-to-air missiles R-37M. We can say that this is their newest weapon, although it is a Soviet development, which they have modernized. Their declared range of air targets is very serious – up to 400 kilometers. In fact, we see smaller figures, but this means of destruction is still very dangerous.
However, we constantly analyze air battles with these missiles and find methods to combat them.
Much, much, much more at the link!
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Лінк на мій ютуб у шапці профілю!🐾 #песпатрон #патрондснс
The caption machine translates as:
Link to my YouTube in the profile header!🐾 #PatrontheDog #PatronDSNS
Well you know what that means!
Here’s the link to Patron’s official YouTube page. So far the only video is the trailer, which I posted last night, for Patron’s soon to debut cartoon series:
Open thread!
sab
Everything good or bad going on in my life, I need to remember war with Russia is going on in their lives.
Ivan X
I have a friend who is on Russia’s side without admitting to himself that he’s on Russia’s side. It’s infuriating on both counts.
CCL
Thanks, Adam. I don’t always comment to thank you, but I always read.
sab
@CCL: Moi aussi.
phdesmond
yes, thank you, Adam.
jackmac
I realize the big news today is yet another Russian missile attack on Ukraine, but I wanted to jump back on something raised on Wednesday.
Adam’s superb daily collection of commentary and links remain daily must-reads. I feel better informed especially via Adam, but from other contributors too.
One such link from Chetan Murthy to a lengthy Medium post via Daily Kos on Wednesday — called 12 Reasons why Russia Sucks — explored just how depressing and challenging it is to live there and how the nation and society have failed (or are near failure) on so many levels.
Ukraine exposed Russian’s military as overrated and frequently ineffective, the economy is a basket case, Russia’s technology remains inferior to the West, bribery and corruption are endemic and a Russian society that puts up with numerous indignities is too lazy, fearful or simply unwilling or unable to try to change for the better.
We’re dealing with basically a Third World failed state that somehow maintains a slight pulse.
The big question for me is what happens when Ukraine wins this war and other oblasts, republics and other regions clamor to break away?
Russia maintains its nuclear arsenal (and there’s some question whether it fully works) but they can’t shake that stick at every challenge.
HinTN
Very informative interview! Thanks, Adam.
Amir Khalid
That NYT headline is a pretence of impartiality taken to the point of willfull obtuseness.
Alison Rose
God, that NYT headline makes me want to scream. They just have to both-sides everything, don’t they? I truly shudder to think how their current staff would’ve reported on the Nazis.
It really does boggle the mind a bit that russia keeps flinging all these missiles even though the majority of them get shot down almost every time. But I suppose in their twisted minds, even if they only kill a few people, destroy a few homes, leave most people without power for a brief time, then it’s worth it. They are sick.
This photo really got me — shows a half-gone Ukraine flag surrounded by black smoke from a missile hit in Odesa. As the caption says, “Torn, but standing.”
Thank you as always, Adam.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
The tweet of the missile being shot down has the caption “Сюда нахуй”. Since that second word is part of the famous defiant Snake Island reply “иди нахуй” which was translated as “Go f*** yourself”, I assume this caption is also salty.
HinTN
@Alison Rose:
The same way they reported on them then.
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
pajaro
@Alison Rose:
Alison, the New York Times existed in the 1930’s, and we know how they reported on the Nazis and Hitler. To say that their coverage was overly credulous is an incredible understatement.
Alison Rose
@pajaro: Yes, I am aware the newspaper existed at that time. You will notice I said “current staff” – and I am assuming the lion’s share of their active reporters and editors were not doing the same job 80 years ago. I am also well aware that the coverage at the time was not great, to put it mildly. My point was that the quality at this supposed paper of record has gone downhill even in my own lifetime, and that if their current stable of idiots were transported back to the 40s, it would’ve been even more of a shitshow than it was.
I do love being assumed to be massively ignorant, though, thanks. Always a fun time.
Sparkedcat
Thank-you for these updates. Slava Ukraini.
trollhattan
@HinTN: Something like “The Germans are winning the sharpest uniform competition; what else are are they winning?”
Ruckus
@jackmac:
Russian society is arranged by how much a person can steal from everyone else. Those at the top steal the most from most everyone else through poor wages, and the basic theft of, well, everything. vlad is at the top of the pile and everyone else is below him. There are layers to the hierarchy but not all that many layers. And the only real way to get along is to go along. Add in the constant police power to be complete and utter thugs and life is relatively unchanged for a very long time. Most countries have grown up to at least a minimal degree, but Russia has grown up about the least amount possible. No matter what they call it, it is a dictatorship and a relatively savage one.
Gin & Tonic
@pajaro: Their coverage of Stalin was no better.
Bill Arnold
Since it’s an open thread, re Greta T’s penis-shaming of Andrew Tate after his climate change denial taunt, she may have accidentally (!-:) goaded him into revealing his location. Or she is secretly a bounty hunter.
Andrew Tate, Brother Tristan arrested amid human trafficking probe – Divisive media personality Andrew Tate and his brother have reportedly been arrested in relation to a human trafficking investigation. (Jack Evans, December 30, 2022)
Miss Bianca
@jackmac: I just read that Medium article and now I feel like I have to take a shower. My God.
Andrya
@Alison Rose: The NYT also published reporting denying the Holodomor in the early 1930s- and GOT A PULITZER PRIZE FOR THAT!!!! WHICH THEY REFUSE TO GIVE BACK!!!!
And it’s not like the facts were impossible to get. Three courageous journalists- Rhea Clyman, Gareth Jones, and Malcom Muggeridge- were able to witness the Holodomor and publicized it to the world. (Clyman was expelled from the USSR but allowed to live, Muggeridge wrote under a pseudonym, and Gareth Jones was murdered, probably by the NKVD.)
By the way, thanks to you and Tom Levinson for helpful input about contributing to United24. I’ve got the problem sorted out now.
ETA: I see G&T beat me to it, but I’m still glad to add a bit more detail.
Gin & Tonic
@Andrya: The added detail is both appreciated and accurate.
Gin & Tonic
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: It means “this way to fuck off.”
pacem appellant
It is never a bad time to remind everyone that the NYT is an unrepentant piece of propaganda sh¡t. NYT delenda sunt.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Gin & Tonic:
нахуй seems to be a very versatile word.
Adam L Silverman
@jackmac: I’m going to get into this tomorrow night. What we’re really dealing with is a differentially organized society. Or given the size and nature of the Russian Federation, several of them.
Adam L Silverman
Everyone is, as always, most welcome for the updates. And thank you all for the kind words.
Ruckus
@pacem appellant:
FTFNYFT has been pure crap for longer than most anyone alive today. So I’m going to conclude that given this, it will never get better in the lifetime of anyone currently breathing.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose:
The actual NY Times reporting on the NAZIs was as bad as you could imagine.I’ve seen your subsequent comment and apologize for reading more into the original than you intended.
zhena gogolia
Oh yeah there was some reaction to that headline around here last night. “Get the fucking fuck out of our country,” is that hardline enough for you?
zhena gogolia
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: Dostoevsky has a whole essay on this
Geminid
From yesterday’s Times of Israel:
Here the TOI cites a report [link] by the Conflict Armament Research group that says that Iranian drones contained semiconductors exclusively made in the US, Europe, and Asia.
One difficulty is Iran’s proficiency at sanctions-dodging:
I guess one question raised here is how big a stockpile of these semiconductor components Iran has accumulated
Something else I’ve been wondering is whether and when Russia will start hitting Ukraine with Iranian short range ballistic missiles. A deal for Iran to supply Russia with these weapons was reported a couple months ago but they have yet to appear. I’m not sure why they haven’t.
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose: the Time is in the mail—hope you get it soon
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: To be fair, in the ’30s a great deal of the Western intelligentsia was bewitched by the Nazis, including many mainstream journalists, politicians, philosophers, and other public intellectuals. The fear of Communism, and a feeling that perhaps democracy had run its course had a lot of people looking for alternatives. It wasn’t hard to find thought leaders saying positive things about Nazi Germany, and downplaying or overlooking their “excesses”.
zhena gogolia
@zhena gogolia: correction I guess it was this morning
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: I’m aware. I’ve written about it here on the front page before.
David ⛄ 🎅The Establishment🎄 🦌 🕎 Koch
A logical extension of FTFNYT’s patented false equivalencies and appeasement.
Adam L Silverman
@Ivan X: Off topic: did you get the last couple of email responses I sent or did they get lost in the shuffle?
David ⛄ 🎅The Establishment🎄 🦌 🕎 Koch
mdblanche
The statue of Catherine the Great in Odesa was removed overnight. No word if it was a statue of Catherine riding a horse or…
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: OMG stealing that.
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: No apology needed. There was no condescension in your original comment.
Amir Khalid
@mdblanche:
This is what the statue of her looked like, before they pulled it down.
zhena gogolia
Let’s call her Catherine I.
JaySinWA
@Bill Arnold: It looks like the Tate tweet war with Greta might have been more coincidence than determinative, since the authorities were well prepared to seize and arrest, and he had apparently flown in the night before, but it makes a great story and the exchange is evidence of Tate’s hubris.
OTOH who knows, perhaps they had some resistance to pulling the trigger on the raid, but the very public evidence that Tate was there forced their hand. They did claim to be monitoring his social media so perhaps just the fact that he was posting at all gave them his location.
As one Twitterer said, “I want this to be true”
Jay
Jay
Gin & Tonic
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: “Fuck” is very versatile too.
Jay
Another Scott
Related to this, and to the story upstairs. ICYMI…
A short video with English subtitles (repost).
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic: Fuck yeah!
Geminid
@Geminid: Tuesday’s Washington Post had an article about arms sales titled, “South Korea ramps up arms sales in bid to become major global player.”
The article describes the first shipments of South Korean K2 battle tanks and K9 155mm howitzers to Poland, with more to come:
At a ceremony welcoming the first installment of the weapons, “[Polish] President Andrzej Duda hailed South Korea as a country that could serve up sought-after weapons fast.”
However:
South Korea’s reluctance might not be absolute, though:
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: When I see comments like your howl of frustration at FTFNYT, from regular commenters like you, I just assume you’re letting off steam. I mean, you’ve been around here a while, and I know you’ve seen countless examples of their perfidy.
Hail and well met!
bjacques
A much better alternative to calling for Russia’s destruction is to publicly show the captives, domestic and foreign, of their shitty system that escape is possible and worth the price, and that Putin and his cronies are not infallible or destined to win.
As an aside, I’m struck by how little Putin and his cronies are worth compared to western or Asian tycoons. All their stolen wealth combined doesn’t add up to that of Musk or Bezos. Theft of extracted resources doesn’t stack up to the capitalization of modern, moderately well-run corporations.
Bill Arnold
Thread on a Russian man many of us loath:
Threadreader link for those who don’t do twitter:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1608365997999943688.html
Cheryl from Maryland
The interview with the Ukrainian pilot reinforced my belief that a great deal of Ukraine’s people and their society and their military and their government are Young. And I feel it influences their resistance to Russia and their adaptation of armaments from other countries. What are running drones and missiles and planes nowadays analogous to but video games? War, as it has so often been, needs young, intelligent people. Russia doesn’t appear to have these bright young people like Ukraine.
Chetan Murthy
@Cheryl from Maryland: I just googled, and UA median age 41; RU median age 40.5. I suspect they’re putting forward their young somewhat as part of a concerted media strategy.
jackmac
@Adam L Silverman:
Thanks Adam. Looking forward to your analysis!
Captain C
@David ⛄ 🎅The Establishment🎄 🦌 🕎 Koch:
Probably paired with some vile variant of “wouldn’t Asians rather be brutally colonized by other Asians than Europeans anyway?”
bjacques
@Bill Arnold: add to that list lying about the shootdown of MH17. I have a gay activist friend here in Amsterdam who lost a lot of friends in that crash, as they were en route to a conference on AIDS. I occasionally remind people about Peskov leading the effort to flood the zone with bullshit to cover up the obvious.
Captain C
@mdblanche: Where would you like today’s Internets sent? (Do we still award Today’s Internets?)
Captain C
@Bill Arnold: He looks like the child of Jeffrey Jones’ character from Ferris Bueller with the drunken lout security guard guy from Superman III.
way2blue
@jackmac:
I just finished that Medium article. Very insightful. And depressing. A country overrun with stunted twisted creatures. Thanks Chetan for the link—it helps frame the dynamic we follow here each day.
Chetan Murthy
@way2blue: I found it over at dKos, so you can thank the posters there. I also want to (again) plug Window on Eurasia ( http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/ ): put it in your RSS reader, and over the next N months, you’ll get a slow drip-feed of news and commentary about Russia and the Former Soviet Union. Goble is great, and I think I can guarantee you that he’s not a Russian shill. He brings in commentary from all over the FSU and RU.
Seriously: when this war was just starting, I was able to contextualize it based on what I read over there.
And he regularly posts compilations of jokes from Tatyana Pushkaryova. Here’s one: https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/09/ukrainians-are-different-than-russians.html
“Ukrainians are Different than Russians: They Think They can Defeat Putin”
Ya burnt! Lots more at the link!
way2blue
@Gin & Tonic:
Someone here, I think, pointed me to the ‘Mr Jones’ film. I couldn’t watch the whole film in one sitting. Too difficult. With so many echoes to what’s happening now. But I did make it through to the end. Amazing how much pressure Jones received to shelve his reporting. I think it was Hearst (of all people) who did see it published.
daveNYC
So Ukraine is running a pretty constant 80% interception rate. That’s not super great since those stupid Shaheeds are cheap as chips, and Russia doesn’t seem to be exactly running out of their lower end cruise missiles. Getting Ukraine more interception capabilities is all well and good, but really we need to be sorting out some way to allow them to hit the launch platforms.
I’m rather worried what might happen if Russia manages to launch enough things at once to saturate Ukraine’s air defense.
JAFD
@trollhattan:
As someone who was a stan of Strategy & Tactics / Simulations Pub Inc products back in the ’70’s…
One of that crew ( Jim Dunnigan ? ) made a sweeping generalization ( law ? ) “Since 1800, the side whose generals are in fancier uniforms will lose”
If the current conflict another example thereof ?
Regardless, thanks again, Mr. Silverman, and best wishes to everyone for a healthy, happy, peaceful and prosperous 2023 !
Geminid
There is an article in Politico about rifts within the Republican Party over Ukraine policy. It’s titled “The Looming GOP Crisis Over Ukraine.” It’s actuactually a Politico Magazine article so it’s fairly long.
The writer uses the issue of aid to Ukraine a touchstone distinguishing members of an internationalist “old guard” and a more isolationist (or pro-Russian?) “new guard.” There is material about broader intra-party conflicts along these lines as well.
This is more a politics article than a policy article, and since the $45 billion appropriation for Ukraine aid passed in the Omnibus bill should last through the first half of the new year, support for Ukraine may not become an acute issue for a while. But it sounds like we will hear plenty about “Oversight and Accountability” in the next Congress.