Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You cannot shame the shameless.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Somebody needs to explain to DeSantis that nobody needs to do anything to make him look bad.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Don’t expect peaches from an apple tree.

Maybe you would prefer that we take Joelle’s side in ALL CAPS?

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

No Justins, No Peace

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 311: The New Year at War – It is 2023 in Ukraine

War for Ukraine Day 311: The New Year at War – It is 2023 in Ukraine

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It is already 2023 in Ukraine. The New Year begins as the old year ended with Russian bombardment of non-military Ukrainian targets: civilian power generation and transmission, water treatment, hospitals, and residential areas.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s New Year’s address. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Dear Ukrainians!

This year began on February 24. Without prefaces and preludes. Sharply. Early. At 4 o’clock.

It was dark. It was loud. It was hard for many and scary for some. 311 days have passed. It can still be dark, loud, and complicated for us. But we will definitely never be afraid again. And we’ll never be ashamed.

It was our year. Year of Ukraine. Year of Ukrainians.

We woke up on February 24. Into another life. Being another people. Another Ukrainians. The first missiles finally destroyed the labyrinth of illusions. We saw who was who. What friends and enemy are capable of, and most importantly, what we are capable of.

On February 24, millions of us made a choice. Not a white flag, but a blue and yellow flag. Not escaping, but meeting. Meeting the enemy. Resisting and fighting.

The explosions on February 24 stunned us. Since then we have not heard everything. And we don’t listen to everyone. We were told: you have no other option but to surrender. We say: we have no other option than to win.

On February 24, we began to create our victory. From many bricks – hundreds of other victories.

We have overcome the panic. We did not run away but united. We have overcome doubts, despair, and fear. We believed in ourselves and in our strength. The Armed Forces of Ukraine. Intelligence. National Guard. SBU. Special Operations Forces. Border guards. Territorial defense forces. Air defense forces. The police. The State Emergency Service. All our defense and security forces. I am proud of you all, our warriors!

This year can be called a year of losses for Ukraine, for the whole of Europe, and the whole world. But it’s wrong. We shouldn’t say that.

We haven’t lost anything. It was taken from us. Ukraine did not lose its sons and daughters – they were taken away by murderers. Ukrainians did not lose their homes – they were destroyed by terrorists. We did not lose our lands – they were occupied by invaders. The world did not lose peace – Russia destroyed it.

This year has struck our hearts. We’ve cried out all the tears. All the prayers have been yelled. 311 days. We have something to say about every minute. But most of the words are superfluous. They are not needed. No explanations or decorations are needed. Silence is needed to hear. Pauses are needed to realize.

The morning of February 24.

Hostomel. Bucha. Irpin. Borodianka. Kharkiv.
Mriya.

Kramatorsk Station. Toy.

Chernihiv.

Mariupol. Drama Theater. The word “Children” written.

Olenivka.

Odesa. Multi-story building. Girl. Three months old.

Vilniansk. Maternity hospital. Baby. Two days old.

Azovstal.

It’s impossible to forget. And it’s impossible to forgive. But it’s possible to win.

We stood on our feet because there was something that kept us going. Our spirit.

Defense of Kyiv.

Kharkiv.

Mykolaiv.

Chornobayivka.

Snake Island.

HIMARS.

Antonivsky Bridge.

“Cotton” pops.

Crimean Bridge.

Neptune.

Cruiser Moskva.

Russian warship.

Izyum, Balakliya and Kupyansk.

Kherson.

And we pray that there will be Kreminna and Svatove, Melitopol, all of Donbas, Crimea.

We fight and will continue to fight. For the sake of the main word: “victory.”

It will be for sure. We are approaching it for 311 days.

We gave it a lot of strength. But at the moment, when it seems that you can’t go any further, remember that we have already passed with you.

I want to say to all of you: Ukrainians, you are incredible! See what we have done and what we are doing!

How our soldiers have been smashing this “second army of the world” since the first days.

How our people stopped their equipment and infantry columns.

How an old man used his hands to stop a tank.

How a woman knocked down a drone with a jar of tomatoes.

How enemy tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, shells were stolen during the occupation.

How we fundraised for Shahed hunters, naval drones, armored vehicles, ambulance vehicles and Bayraktar drones in several hours.

How we withstood all threats, shelling, cluster bombs, cruise missiles, darkness and cold.

How we supported each other and the state.

Everyone is important in war.

Who holds a weapon, the steering wheel of a car, the helm of a ship or plane, a scalpel, or a pointer.

Everyone who is behind a laptop, who drives a combine harvester, a train.

Who is at a roadblock and a power plant.

Journalists and diplomats, utility workers and rescuers.

All. Who is working. Studying at a university or school. And even those who are just learning to walk.

All this is for their sake. Our children. Our people. Our country.

There are no small matters in a great war. There are no unnecessary ones. Each of us is a fighter. Each of us is a front. Each of us is the basis of the defense.

We fight as one team – the whole country, all our regions. I admire you all. I want to thank every invincible region of Ukraine.

Kharkiv. Mutilated but unconquered. You proved to the enemy that being close territorially does not mean being close in mind. Kharkiv is a Ukrainian city. The hero city.

Invincible Mykolaiv. Heroically withstands all blows. The city on a wave that overcomes all storms.

Sumy city and the region. You were one of the first to feel the full-scale invasion of the invaders. Sumy region became a bone in their throat for them. Ordinary people made Molotov cocktails, burned enemy columns, took the first prisoners. Sumy region is a force.

Dnipro. The support and reliable rear of our front. You received people, you got the lives of wounded soldiers back. Despite constant barrages, Dnipro lives on.

Odesa. Sunny and friendly, now a fortress. World fortress. Which defends us and which defends the world. Feeds it by sending millions of tonnes of salvation by sea every day. Because it is Odesa Mama.

Kherson! You are heroic people! You have been under occupation for more than eight months. No news. No communication. Separated from Ukraine.

Thousands of you took part in actions against the ruscists. You did not know whether we saw it in Ukraine or knew about it. The occupiers lied to you that Ukraine abandoned you and would not fight for you. But you believed and waited despite everything. The face of Kherson is cut by fragments of shells, but the main thing is that we welcome the New Year free and together under blue and yellow flags. And therefore, we will restore everything, rebuild everything. Just like Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia, and Kramatorsk, and Bakhmut.

Those that became a refuge for millions of Ukrainians: Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia. I thank you! Those who receive and transfer millions of tonnes of aid from Europe and the world: Lviv, Uzhgorod, Chernivtsi, Lutsk. Thank you! Those who accept the evacuation of businesses, enterprises, universities: Khmelnytsky, Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytsky, Poltava, Cherkasy. Thank you!

And those who are waiting for Ukraine. And will wait. Donbas, Luhansk region, Crimea. Thanks to you, our warriors!

And, of course, Kyiv region and the city are our heart, which always beats thanks to you, all our Ukrainians!

We are all one family. One Ukraine.

This is the year when Ukraine changed the world. And the world discovered Ukraine. We were told to surrender. We chose a counterattack! We were told to make concessions and compromises. We are joining the European Union and NATO.

The world heard Ukraine. European Parliament, Bundestag, the UK Parliament, Knesset, the US Congress.

The world felt Ukraine. Ukraine in the media. In the hearts of people. At the top of Google search.

The world saw Ukraine. On the main squares in Toronto, New York, London, Warsaw, Florence, Sydney, and other cities.

Ukrainians surprise. Ukrainians are applauded. Ukrainians inspire.

Is there anything that can scare us? No. Is there anyone who can stop us? No.

Because we are all together.

It is what we are fighting for. One for each other.

The best salute for us is at the warehouses of the occupiers. The best gift is the numbers in the report of the General Staff.

We do not know for sure what the new year 2023 will bring us. But ready for anything.

New achievements? We will be happy. New hits? We will be steadfast. Continuation of the fight? We will fight. And when we win, we will hug.

Dear Ukrainians!

A few minutes remain until the New Year. I want to wish all of us one thing – victory. And that’s the main thing. One wish for all Ukrainians.

Let this year be the year of return. The return of our people. Soldiers – to their families. Prisoners – to their homes. Immigrants – to their Ukraine.

Return of our lands. And the temporarily occupied will become forever free.

Return to normal life. To happy moments without curfew. To earthly joys without air alerts.

The return of what has been stolen from us. The childhood of our children, the peaceful old age of our parents.

So that grandchildren come to visit their grandparents during the holidays. To eat watermelons in Kherson. And the cherry in Melitopol.

So that our cities are free. Our friends are faithful.

And so that our main figure and main success appeared in reports near the figure of 100,000 destroyed enemies, thousands of units of destroyed Russian equipment – it is 603,628 square kilometers. The area of independent Ukraine, as it was since 1991. As it will always be.

May the New Year bring all this. We are ready to fight for it. That’s why each of us is here. I’m here. We are here. You are here. Everyone is here. We are all Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Happy New Year!

And a message from Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov:

If anyone was wondering, here’s Putin’s rant:

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kherson, Svatove and Kremenna, and Bakhmut:

The Ukrainians were able to arrange for another 140 Ukrainian POWs to be returned:

In the wee hours, commenter NobodySpecial asked:

Adam, thank you for the update. I confess that I’m worried about Bakhmut collapsing under the pressure. How likely is a Russian breakthrough, do you estimate?

As always, you and everyone else is most welcome. To answer your question, from all the news reporting I’ve seen I don’t think the Russians will be able to take Bakhmut without something really significant happening. First, we need to keep in mind that this is largely to almost exclusively a Wagner operation, not a Russian military one. Two, whatever agreement Prigozhin had with the Russian MOD to keep his mercenaries supplied with ammunition is clearly not working any better than the rest of the Russian logistics operation. This is why you may have seen the videos last week of the Wagner bubbas cursing out and demeaning Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Defense Staff Gerasimov. These were followed by Prigozhin actually going to that Wagner post in Donbas to meet with the mercenaries that made that video and then making his own snide remarks about Shoigu and Gerasimov. Third, the Ukrainians have decided that they are going to prevent Wagner/the Russians take Bakhmut. Given Ukrainian resolve and past performance, I think this makes it more likely that Ukraine will prevail in Bakhmut. I think what it is going to look like is what it has looked like for a while, which is almost a frozen tactical battlespace where gains are measured by meters. It is going to be slow going and grinding, but I expect that the Ukrainians will eventually do more grinding than Wagner and the Russians can withstand.

That said, Prigozhin really, really, really needs to be able to take Bakhmut, even if its just for a day or two. He needs this because the whole point of his having Wagner try to take it is to prove that as the Russian military gets pushed out of location after location in the Donbas and other Russian occupied areas of Ukraine, his mercenaries can actually take and hold something. To a certain extent this is grinding up your personal to achieve a strategic communication effect. It is wasteful, it is callous, it shows a striking disregard by Prigozhin for the well being of his own personnel, but it is key to his larger project. And that project is promoting himself as the one patriotic Russian with an effective military/paramilitary force. We’re watching the intro course in how to become a warlord.

That’s enough for New Year’s Eve.

Your daily Patron!

Patron brings us news of one very specific Ukrainian POW:

And Patron’s New Year’s greetings:

Here is a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Усім новорічний лизь, мої любі!🎄✨

♬ оригінальний звук – uaculture

The caption machine translates as:

Happy New Year to everyone, my dears!🎄✨

Open thread!

A happy and healthy New Year to all of you and your families!

Reader Interactions

56Comments

  1. 1.

    Layer8Problem

    I just donated some more to Balloon Juice for Ukraine in the sidebar.  May this all end soon.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    I just watched Zelenskyy’s NYE video on FB, and God almighty. I was literally sobbing by the end. Crying through most of it, really. Not from being upset, although the scenes of destruction are horrifying. But just from sheer admiration and awe and love for him and his people. This is honestly the best speech of this kind I have ever seen. Please everyone, do take the time to watch the whole thing. What a hero, leading a country of heroes.

    I would also like to strap all the GQP putin-lovers into chairs with their eyes held open like Clockwork Orange and make them watch it on repeat until their brains are recalibrated.

    2023 will bring a full Ukrainian victory, from border to 1991 border. I refuse to believe otherwise. And hopefully, well before next NYE, there will be no more need of these updates.

    But until then, of course, thank you as always, Adam. З Новим роком!

  5. 5.

    TheMightyTrowel

    Good morning and Happy New Year from Australia where it’s already 2023.

    Just delurking briefly to say a public thank you to Adam for these careful, thoughtful and informative posts.

     

    May 2023 bring a swift and just end to this and all wars

  6. 6.

    OzarkHillbilly

    I don’t usually comment in these posts but I worry about the cost to Ukraine in personnel and supplies in the battle for Bakhmut. I have read that there is no strategic value for it as the terrain to the west is particularly difficult to fight in. I understand the propaganda value of holding/taking it but when both sides refer to it as a “meat grinder” I wonder if it is worth the cost.

    It may well be but I can’t help thinking of those who bear the burden.

  7. 7.

    Geminid

    I saw that some of the missiles that attacked Ukraine today came from the vicinity of Astrakhan. That is Russia’s principal port on the Caspian Sea and is a likely waypoint for Iranian drones provided to Russia.

    The Shahed drone has the range to reach Ukraine from Astrakhan. That may be a good launching area because it is relatively warm. I’ve read that these drones are not well suited to cold climates because their flimsy plastic bodies and wings become brittle at cold temperatures.

  8. 8.

    Carlo Graziani

    And, to add to Adam’s great summary of the prospects for Bakhmut: even if Wagner succeds in a “breakthrough”, finally taking the town, the victory would be a strategically meaningless one achieved at such incredible cost that it would be reckoned a Ukrainian victory.

    It’s the story of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk all over again – – the Russians decide to take a city for idiotic political reasons, and the UA sensibly accepts their invitation to slaughter as many Russians as possible in the resulting unequal exchange.

  12. 12.

    Gin & Tonic

    Came here to post about that 141st POW in the exchange, but I see Adam’s on it. Who’s a good boy?

  14. 14.

    West of the Rockies

    Maybe this is uncool of me, but I wish all Wagnerites would be outed and doxxed.   They are hired goons, killing people for cash.  Fuck them, their wives, and the parents who raised them.

  15. 15.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Spanky: ​TBH I’m not sure Putin will allow such a threat to exist within his inner circle. There are always open windows available. Hold one’s friends close, hold one’s enemies closer.

    Mind you, not for even a second do I think I understand RU politics.

    I remain hopeful that a saner collaboration of RU oligarchs will take the situation under control, not that I am holding my breath…

  18. 18.

    CaseyL

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    saner collaboration of RU oligarchs

    Say what?

    There are no such people.

    Someone who has what it takes to be an oligarch in Russia is not sane by any known meaning of the word.

    The moral/ethical degradation is such that IMO it can only be likened to those insects who lay their eggs in other insects who are still alive, so the offspring can eat their way out.

  19. 19.

    Amir Khalid

    I’ve seen one or two YouTube videos claiming that Russian air defence has managed to shoot down some of its own planes and missiles before they can get to Ukraine. I’m reluctant to believe that even the Russians could be so breathtakingly inept. So, what do you think, Adam?

  20. 20.

    oldster

    I read a transcript of Zelenskyy’s address an hour ago, and was deeply moved.

    I just watched him deliver it, and was even more moved. He’s one of those people that makes you think maybe the human species is not a waste of protoplasm after all.

    On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have reprobates like Prigozhin. I am ashamed to share a genus with him, much less a species. I hope he dies soon. And I think he should watch his step. He is spending a lot of time saying, “look at me, boss! I can jump higher!”

    But sometimes what the boss hears is, “look at me! I can jump higher than the boss!”

    If and when his boss hears that, the next jump will start from a high window.

    Here’s to a 2023 full of Ukrainian victories! Slava Ukraini! Heroyam Slava!

  23. 23.

    OB-118

    @OzarkHillbilly: In war, there are usually two broad types of objectives, locations (e.g., cities) and the enemy military. Often the degradation of the enemy military is the main objective because, once the enemy is unable to attack or defend effectively, the locations fall relatively easily. In the case of Bakhmut, the Ukrainians may have chosen to fight there not because of location but to degrade the Russian forces. What we don’t know is the losses on either side. Ukraine may be choosing to continue a battle of attrition because they think they are losing fewer soldiers than the Russians.

  24. 24.

    Geminid

    @West of the Rockies: A lot of the “soldiers” the Wagner Group has sent into the Bakhmut killing ground are convicts. A Washington Post article from last Saturday, December 24 reported on “new numbers laid out by U.S. national security spokesman John Kirby at a briefing Thursday” [December 22]:

         …Kirby said that 40,000 of the Wagner Group’s 50,000 members were convicts.

    ….[Wagner chief] Prigozhin, nicknamed Putin’s chef because he made a fortune from Russian government catering contracts, was recorded on video in September personally going to prisons to help recruit prisoners to fight for Wagner, with a preference for those accused of violent crimes.

     

  25. 25.

    oldster

    Putin’s permitting Prigozhin to use convicts against Ukraine reminds me of this from the Declaration:

    “He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation….

    He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.”

    This was slander of the “Indian savages,” of course, but it describes the Wagner rabble exactly.

  26. 26.

    Zelma

    Do watch Zelensky’s speech with subtitles if you get a chance.  Had me in tears.

    And thank you Adam for these nightly updates.

  30. 30.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Geminid: I saw those vids of Prigozhin visiting that prison to troll for recruits, too.  More recently (last night) I read that the RU military is recruiting from prisons, and have enlisted the guards to push the prisoners.  There’s a video going around of a prisoner being forced to shout out loud that he recants the thieves-in-law code that governs in prisons (which would make the “vory” want to kill him, apparently) b/c he didn’t want to sign up for Ukraine.  And all of this is happening *without* Wagner being involved.  I wonder if Putin has realized that prisoners are a good source of recruits.

    I also saw read that the RU army is aggressively recruiting migrant workers in Russia (from the stans, mostly).  Aggressively.

  31. 31.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Amir Khalid: They’re picking that up from the Russian rabidly pro war mil bloggers on telegram. I’ve seen confirmed reports of a few of these, but not to the scale being claimed. Keep in mind Putin signed a directive two weeks ago bringing all the mil bloggers inside the Kremlin tent to coordinate messaging. My take is we’re looking at misinformation.

  33. 33.

    Geminid

    @Chetan Murthy: Prigozhin himself spent several years in the Russian prison system, for petty financial crimes I believe. Evidently he a learned a lot while he was there and made some good connections too. Prigozhin rose fairly quickly after he got out, apparantly as a restaurateur. But that was probably a front for other businesses.

  34. 34.

    patrick II

    @Chetan Murthy:

    It’s a twofer for Putin.  He gets to kill at least a few Ukrainians and saves himself the cost of housing and feeding thousands of prisoners. Times are hard in Russia.  He couldn’t care less if they lived or died.

  36. 36.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Geminid: Not sure if Adam linked it, or somebody else, but very recently there was a good Twitter thread explaining how prison culture, vocabulary and mores have permeated russian (male) society.

  38. 38.

    jackmac

    Damn.  What an inspiring New Year’s address by President Zelenskyy.  It left me wiping away tears over the cruelty of the Russians but also feeling pride over the resilience and character of Ukranians. I pray that next year’s address will celebrate a victory and a return to peace.

  39. 39.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Adam L Silverman: I read those last night on Mastodon (!)  Ha!

    It’s frightful to contemplate the way Russia treats prisoners, and then the way prisoners treat each other.  Frightful.

  43. 43.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: There’s also the video some other former convict made claiming Prigozhin was one of the “offended”/roosters/cocks, specifically this specific convict’s.

  45. 45.

    Geminid

    I wonder if Prigozhin ever visits a regular Army headquarters. I bet a lot of regular officers hate his guts.

    That could be part of why the Army is recruiting their own convicts now. They may want to put together a “Dirty Dozen” -type hit squad to kill Prigozhin with.

    But maybe he stays away fron the war zone entirely, and lets his lieutenants run operations there.

  46. 46.

    frosty

    @Adam L Silverman: I confess I’ve been feeling bad about the conscripts sent into the lines to be wiped out by Ukrainian artillery. After reading this … wipe out all of the Wagner “soldiers”. All of them. The Russian prison hierarchy should die with them, but of course it won’t.

  47. 47.

    Chetan Murthy

    @frosty: Every soldier has a choice: fight and kill Ukrainians, or surrender.  Sure, surrendering is hard.  But so is fighting Ukrainians, who will mos’def fight and kill them back.  It’s a moral question: are you going to risk your life to kill innocent people to stay alive, or risk your life getting the hell out of Dodge ?

    Would I kill other humans if there were no food?  No, I’d let someone else kill me, so they could eat.

  48. 48.

    NotoriousJRT

    Thanks again, Adam. Here’s to the ending of the necessity for your updates in the new year. That would make it a very happy new year, indeed.  That’s what I wish for us all.

  49. 49.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid:

    That could be part of why the Army is recruiting their own convicts now. They may want to put together a “Dirty Dozen” -type hit squad to kill Prigozhin with.

    I hardly think that this sort of extreme measure would be required, if an MOD conspiracy really progressed to that point.

    MOD controls communications, transportation, logistics, and security arrangements, including those that support Wagner and Prigozhin.  I doubt very much that the generals would find it difficult to shut him down, if they could muster the will to do so.  Presumably it is the relationship between Putin and Shoigu, and the latter’s control over MOD, that has prevented this from occurring so far.

    Not really a stable situation long-term, though.

  52. 52.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Happy New Year to you as well.  Looking forward to when we can arrange a big Balloon Juice Meet Up in 3-D, with beer and live arguments!

  55. 55.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: I will absolutely make arrangements for a Chicago meeting this summer, and de-bone and roast a pig, Italian porchetta-style, for all Jackals who come on down — and vegetarian and even vegan Jackals are also welcome, for the side dishes.  We need to make this happen.

Comments are closed.