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You are here: Home / Politics / Political Action / November Should Have Been A Perfect Storm

November Should Have Been A Perfect Storm

by WaterGirl|  January 2, 20235:09 pm| 157 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Politics

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Now that the holidays have passed, and the new Congress will be starting tomorrow, I went looking for a post I had started to draft weeks ago to begin to take a look at our fundraising efforts – what we raised, who we raised it for, and evaluate our choices against election outcomes.

What I found instead were the starts of two posts: one about what was at stake in this election, and what we were doing about it, and another talking about what should have been a perfect storm for republicans, but wasn’t.

Together, they seem like a pretty good introduction to the posts where we assess election outcomes in November and our contributions to them.

Let’s start with this comment from kalakal (from weeks ago) that I thought should be more widely seen:

I have a feeling – and though I may be channeling my inner Pollyanna here, I’m going with it – that the party that is in trouble after these elections is the GOP.

This should have been a perfect storm for them.

Midterms against a relatively unpopular president whose considerable achievements have been obscured by GOP smears and MSM stooges. A partisan judiciary with its fingers on the scales so hard that masked goons with AR15s at drop off boxes isn’t seen as a problem. Poll workers quitting after death threats.

Billionaires pouring money into the propaganda campaigns, whipping astro turf movements and panics over made up issues CRT? Defund the police?

A robust economy portrayed by the MSM as on the verge of collapse, ditto ending a forever war.

Decades of gerrymandering & voter suppression and yet…

We held firm. Could it have been better? Of course, but we are going to pick up a senate seat, Michigan has kicked the bastards in the crotch at all local levels, secretary of state & governor pickups across the nation. All abortion ballots went our way. Election denying candidates nearly all lost. With the senate Biden still gets to appoint judges.

The GOP are going into a civil war over TFG. Even if they get a small majority in the house their fruitcakes are going to make our problems with Manchin & Sinema look like nothing. Sadly Dobbs will take it’s tragic toll, they got punished for that vileness last week and will be in the next election even more. Putin isn’t going to be around to ratfuck.

As was pointed out above voters under 30 cancelled out voters over 65, by 2024 there will be 7 million fewer voters over 65 and 9 million more under 30.

Not only was the Red Wave a Ripple, it may very well have been the Crest.

Those all seem like good things to keep in mind as we lose control of the House and are heading into a shitshow, courtesy of the new landlords.

And, before we start reflecting on our contributions to the November Surprise (suck on it, GOP) let’s go back in time to shortly before the election.  Are you willing to watch this one-minute ad from September?

Because your #vote is all that stands between our future and theirs.#TheBallot pic.twitter.com/ksbfGxk2Tm

— Eric Swalwell (@ericswalwell) September 14, 2022

We all had a role to play in this election.  What was your part?

No brag, just fact.

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Reader Interactions

157Comments

  1. 1.

    Mike in NC

    January 2, 2023 at 5:19 pm

    A week or two ago some poll of Republicans indicated 9 out of 10 of them declared the economy to be a shambles. Naturally, of course.

    This mysterious rep-elect George Santos (name subject to change hourly) on Long Island was bankrolled by a Russian oligarch to the tune of $50K or more. That will be the standard going forward.

  2. 2.

    wonkie

    January 2, 2023 at 5:26 pm

    I lost count of how many GOTV letters and postcards I sent, but it was around 2000. I gave about three hundred dollars a month, starting in January, to a variety of GOTV organizations and individual candidates. I voted.

    Right now a critical race is in Wisconsin for their state supreme court seat so I made a donation. Also, while I am not donating at three hundred a month anymore, I am still supporting several GOTV organizations so they can keep busy. Two years from now–and that is a SHORT period of time–there will be another election every bit as critical as this one

  3. 3.

    mrmoshpotato

    January 2, 2023 at 5:26 pm

    @Mike in NC:

    This mysterious rep-elect George Santos (name subject to change hourly) on Long Island was bankrolled by a Russian oligarch to the tune of $50K or more. That will be the standard going forward. 

    Is this Russkiy a US citizen, or did Citizens United decide that corporations are people and that Russkies can pour their dirty money into US elections?

  4. 4.

    Baud

    January 2, 2023 at 5:28 pm

    I did what I always do: provide inspiration to the masses.

  5. 5.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 5:29 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: The Russkiy, Andrew Intrater, is indeed an American citizen.

  6. 6.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 5:33 pm

    @wonkie: Is that the WI election that’s in March?

  7. 7.

    Another Scott

    January 2, 2023 at 5:33 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: ICYMI, Evan Hurst at Wonkette has the latest…:

    Love it when you’re 18 and you’re paying the bills for your deadbeat 26-year-old boyfriend.

    2023 is going to be a very interesting time for the GQPers.

    Of course, they’re going to seat him in the House tomorrow.

    Grrr…,
    Scott.

  8. 8.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 5:34 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: I’m sure you remember that TFG was selling Florida condos to Russians who used ’em for birth tourism, yes? Not sayin’ that that’s what happened with Intrater (he’s a little old for that), but …. they’ve been doing it for years now.

  9. 9.

    Ryan

    January 2, 2023 at 5:35 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: ​

    @mrmoshpotato: ​
     

    That’s not his real name either. Just speculating.

  10. 10.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 2, 2023 at 5:38 pm

    You make a great point, WG. It “should” have been an election tailor made for the GOP but they still underperformed. It seems voters got the message that excellent video posted by Eric Swalwell.

    I think it’s also interesting (and encouraging!) that while European countries like Sweden and Italy saw far-right victories, we were able to resist that right-ward lurch

  11. 11.

    West of the Rockies

    January 2, 2023 at 5:38 pm

    @Baud:

    I thought your job was to sit there and look pretty.

  12. 12.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 5:40 pm

    @Chetan Murthy: I missed that one.  For real?

  13. 13.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 5:41 pm

    @West of the Rockies: Why not both?

  14. 14.

    SuzieC

    January 2, 2023 at 5:42 pm

    Donations:  thousands.  Letters and postcards:  hundreds.

  15. 15.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 5:42 pm

    @WaterGirl: A-yup: https://www.thedailybeast.com/russians-flock-to-trump-properties-to-give-birth-to-us-citizens

    Russians Flock to Trump Properties to Give Birth to U.S. Citizens

    OH BABY

    While the president rails against children of undocumented immigrants, wealthy Russians rent his condos—at huge costs—so they can have American kids

    Oops, in my original comment I wrote “sell”: shoulda been “rent”

  16. 16.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 5:45 pm

    @wonkie: @SuzieC: Great work!

  17. 17.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 5:48 pm

    @Chetan Murthy: Un-fucking-believable.

  18. 18.

    West of the Rockies

    January 2, 2023 at 5:49 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    Baud contains multitudes.

  19. 19.

    zhena gogolia

    January 2, 2023 at 5:49 pm

    Donated and voted. Not much.

  20. 20.

    danielx

    January 2, 2023 at 5:50 pm

    @Baud: ​
     As well you should.

  21. 21.

    NotMax

    January 2, 2023 at 5:50 pm

    @Mike in NC

    Judging by the sheer volume of smackeroos being ‘sploded last Saturday night, the pall of widespread economic anxiety ain’t so. Money to burn, indeed.

  22. 22.

    NotMax

    January 2, 2023 at 5:52 pm

    @West of the Rockies

    Which inevitably leads into the question “Multitudes of what?”
    :)

  23. 23.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 5:52 pm

    @zhena gogolia: I didn’t write a single postcard, and I didn’t donate a whole lot.  I went with sweat equity by organizing fundraising and posts and postcard parties.

  24. 24.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 5:53 pm

    @NotMax: Before anyone answers, remember, it not after dark yet on the west coast.

  25. 25.

    eclare

    January 2, 2023 at 5:56 pm

    @zhena gogolia:   Same here.  And I’m in a solid red state…

  26. 26.

    CaseyL

    January 2, 2023 at 5:59 pm

    I donated and sent postcards.  Not a lot, I’m afraid – but 95% of my donations were to the targeted races WG put up, and the postcards were for races that were targeted either here or on the postcard site.  So I feel my efforts, slight though they were, were more effective than the broad brush I’ve done in the past.

    I do feel targeting races and pretty much avoiding the high-profile-no-hope races (*cough* Texas *cough*) is an excellent idea, and hope we continue to do that moving forward.

  27. 27.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 5:59 pm

    @WaterGirl: You saw this, right?  http://yastreblyansky.blogspot.com/2022/12/narratogy-cigar-bar.html

    Manafort, with Konstantin Kilimnik (GRU spy), in Jared Kushner’s 666 Fifth Avenue cigar bar, knifing America in the back.

  28. 28.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 6:00 pm

    @WaterGirl: And without your sweat equity, a lot of people would have done a whole lot less, been a whole lot less effective.

  29. 29.

    Baud

    January 2, 2023 at 6:00 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    Et tu, WG?

  30. 30.

    zhena gogolia

    January 2, 2023 at 6:03 pm

    @WaterGirl: You did a hell of a lot more than I did!

  31. 31.

    frosty

    January 2, 2023 at 6:04 pm

    @SuzieC: I’ll copy your format:

    Donations, thousands, postcards 50, doors knocked 185 in 4 shifts.

    Results: Josh Shapiro, John Fetterman, Susan Wild, Rafael Warnock. But Scott Perry (ptui) is still in Congress, at least until indictment.

  32. 32.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 2, 2023 at 6:05 pm

    Robert Costa @costareports.  46m

    “We may be on the verge of a new year’s miracle,” @RepMattGaetz tells me as he walks into McCarthy’s office. Did not elaborate on what he meant by that. @laurenboebert and Rep. Scott Perry alongside him.

    Robert Costa @costareports. 27m
    “I’m a no,” Gaetz tells reporters as he leaves McCarthy’s office. “I’m a no,” he repeats when asked again. Calls his meeting with McCarthy “brief and productive.” But then said again, “I’m a no.” Added that there are still 5 firm “no” votes.

    Boebert was mum when asked about her final position on the speaker vote.

    Maybe they’ll vote no in a first round, because they can, then yes in a second. I figured he’d make it, in part because no one else wants the job, yet. I don’t know if it will mean anything outside of political junkie world, but I think they’ll humiliate him first.

  33. 33.

    schrodingers_cat

    January 2, 2023 at 6:06 pm

    I was a delegate for the state nominating convention in June. I was one of the organizers of the town caucus which chose the delegates that was in Feb. We had lot of open elections this year Governor, LG, AG, Auditor, SoC. Spoke to and Zoomed with many of the candidates asked them questions so that I was well informed as a delegate.

    I voted, donated and did some canvassing for state level candidates

  34. 34.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:07 pm

    @Chetan Murthy: no.  sigh.

  35. 35.

    frosty

    January 2, 2023 at 6:07 pm

    @WaterGirl: ​OMG, don’t sell yourself short! Your sweat equity focused all of my donations to something where it counted.

  36. 36.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 2, 2023 at 6:08 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    And we’re all thankful you did. BJ raised nearly a $1 million last year, right? I think all of those targeted donations to close races made a difference

  37. 37.

    Baud

    January 2, 2023 at 6:09 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    I wonder if they’ll live stream the paddling.

  38. 38.

    Baud

    January 2, 2023 at 6:09 pm

    WaterGirl = Blue hero.

  39. 39.

    West of the Rockies

    January 2, 2023 at 6:09 pm

    @NotMax:

    I suspect our dear Baud will take the 5th.

  40. 40.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 6:11 pm

    @West of the Rockies: yeah, but we know what he did!  No pants (to set on fire)!  No pants (to set on fire)!

  41. 41.

    H.E.Wolf

    January 2, 2023 at 6:13 pm

    @WaterGirl:”I didn’t write a single postcard, and I didn’t donate a whole lot. I went with sweat equity by organizing fundraising and posts and postcard parties.”

     That was a whole equity fund’s worth of sweat equity, and I/we thank you! The fundraising posts were phenomenal to see in action.

    I wrote 365 postcards (accidentally averaging 1/day), of which 270 were for Vote By Mail outreach to FL Democrats. Although those FL postcards may not have paid off noticeably in 2022, it’s a longterm effort that will pay off.

    I donated 1-2 hrs. of my time daily to our state Democratic Party’s data team, and (among other things) did 15,000+ address updates for them in 2022. That was satisfying, because I prioritized addresses in a swing Congressional District that flipped in November to the Democrats. :)

    In general I got in good trouble (hat tip to the late Rep. John Lewis). It felt great to be involved and to be among the members of the jackal team.

    Looking forward to working under the radar in 2023… the better to achieve victories in 2024.

  42. 42.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 2, 2023 at 6:14 pm

    I’m sure there’s an appropriate quote from Frankenstein, “This creature I made, what hath it wrought!”

    Ron Filipkowski. @RonFilipkowski. 4h

    Newt is upset MAGA House Reps won’t accept the results of their election: “I don’t understand what they’re doing. They’re saying they have the right to screw up everything. Anybody who tried to replace Kevin would face total chaos, it would be impossible to govern.”

  43. 43.

    Nelle

    January 2, 2023 at 6:14 pm

    Water Girl…be sure to count every contribution you make by doing what you do for all of us here.   Thank you.

  44. 44.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:15 pm

    @Baud: You know I’m on team Baud.  All the way!

  45. 45.

    H.E.Wolf

    January 2, 2023 at 6:15 pm

    Adding a separate comment to say wow, so many people did so many things! I’m in awe….

  46. 46.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:15 pm

    @frosty: Great work.  I was so proud when you decided to door knock!

  47. 47.

    zhena gogolia

    January 2, 2023 at 6:17 pm

    God, Julia Davis posted an excerpt from the Russian New Year’s Eve show. An entire country has gone completely insane. And they’re in a time warp that has taken them back to 1952.
    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1609719192596381696

  48. 48.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:17 pm

    @frosty: Not selling myself short. :-)  I’m proud of what we accomplished.

    I was just trying to point out that there are a lot of different ways to make a difference.

  49. 49.

    schrodingers_cat

    January 2, 2023 at 6:18 pm

    OT did anyone read Roger Cohen’s tongue bath of the BJP junta? NYT is so gross.

  50. 50.

    brendancalling

    January 2, 2023 at 6:19 pm

    I canvassed every single weekend save two for John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro from October-Election Day, hitting low-income and Latino neighborhoods all over Philly. I speak conversational-level Spanish, which was really helpful during the campaign. It was a great time, I really enjoyed my work, and I’d do it again in a heartbeat.

  51. 51.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:21 pm

    @H.E.Wolf: Great work!  Yeah, the fundraising was amazing.  Need $5,000 or $10,000?  Give us a couple of hours. :-)

  52. 52.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 6:22 pm

    @Nelle: Seconded.

  53. 53.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 6:23 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: I read some interview with the new foreign minister (I think it was)?  Disgusting.

  54. 54.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:24 pm

    @brendancalling: Impressive!

    Thank you for Fetterman and Shapiro!

  55. 55.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:26 pm

    @zhena gogolia: Sometimes I’m afraid to click, sometimes I wish I hadn’t!  Ugh.  Half the world has gone mad.

  56. 56.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:27 pm

    @H.E.Wolf: I think maybe everybody who did something inspired everybody else.

  57. 57.

    schrodingers_cat

    January 2, 2023 at 6:27 pm

    deleted

  58. 58.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:27 pm

    @Baud: Thank you, Baud!

    I may have done the research, gotten the matches and put up the posts, but everybody else, including the angels, made the thermometers move!

  59. 59.

    Miss Bianca

    January 2, 2023 at 6:29 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: OMG, if that asshole Newt doesn’t see the direct line between his Contract on America and the current adult-onset Oppositional Defiant Disorder infecting the entire national GOP, then, as one of our front pagers here so eloquently put it, “he’s too dumb to be feeding himself with a fork.”

  60. 60.

    persistentillusion

    January 2, 2023 at 6:29 pm

    @WaterGirl: WG, your efforts to organize and coordinate our attempts to be effective during the election may have been the most consequential of all the activities here.  You should rightly be proud of all you did.

  61. 61.

    schrodingers_cat

    January 2, 2023 at 6:29 pm

    @Chetan Murthy: He is not new. He has been around since at least 2019 after Modi’s reelection. In addition to being a tongue bath for the Sangh. The whole op-ed is gross orientalist claptrap. Cohen has no fucking idea of what he is writing about. He has no knowledge or understanding of his subject. He Columbused India in two weeks.

    BTW I made shami kebab, samosas, wontons and also fried some idlis in the air fryer.

    Shami kebab and samosa: Grade A

    Wontons: B+ (should have brushed them with some oil)

    Fried Idlis: A- (Better than I had anticipated)

  62. 62.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:30 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: Good work.

  63. 63.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:33 pm

    As long as we’re reminiscing, I just found this draft post, too.

    Jennifer Rubin hopes these 7 things come back to haunt Republicans in November.

    – Republicans reflexively rejected popular items.

    – Republicans did not take women seriously.

    – Republicans made themselves into villains.

    – Republicans made the election into a Trump referendum of sorts.

    – Republicans nominated a fleet of election deniers.

    – Ideas that Republicans advance are extreme and unpopular.

    – Republicans have aligned themselves with special interests.

    Personally, I hope it does more than haunt Republicans – I want to see them crushed and defeated in November.

  64. 64.

    schrodingers_cat

    January 2, 2023 at 6:33 pm

    @WaterGirl: Thanks. You as well. The fundraising has been phenomenal.

  65. 65.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 2, 2023 at 6:35 pm

    @Miss Bianca: Marge Greene, Boebert, Perry, Gosar: They’re all the spawn of the GOPAC memo. And I’d bet half of them never even heard of it

  66. 66.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 6:36 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    Republicans did not take women seriously.

    In the previous post, AWJ posted this: https://balloon-juice.com/2023/01/02/new-evidience-released/#comment-8721944

    Richard Hanania has started his journey of redemption, and cites Dobbs as a factor.  He’s *started*, and has a long way to go.  But yeah, GrOPers did not take women seriously.  Amen.  Amen.  Amen.

  67. 67.

    Glory b

    January 2, 2023 at 6:38 pm

    Because this is an open thread,  Cole, the deaf rescue dog.

    https://twitter.com/Mizzoh66/status/1609939709001695234?s=20&t=zvY6Wrlom5RLv4gdVjx-2w

  68. 68.

    Anyway

    January 2, 2023 at 6:38 pm

    Voted (early and often). Worked as poll worker in primary and general. Donated to a few candidates.

  69. 69.

    schrodingers_cat

    January 2, 2023 at 6:38 pm

    @Glory b: Waves. Long time no see.

  70. 70.

    Freemark

    January 2, 2023 at 6:39 pm

    What do the jackals think of expanding what we did this year with more local ‘up-ballot’ races. It worries me how much billionaire money is going to local races, especially school boards. It seems like we need more efforts to counterbalance that. Small dollar donations have been successful at the national and state levels in being a pretty decent counterbalance. But big money conservative groups have started overwhelming local races.

  71. 71.

    Michael Bersin

    January 2, 2023 at 6:40 pm

    We contrubuted to the Georgia Senate run-off right after the November election. Timing.

    In Missouri we tilted at windmills. At Show Me Progress we followed the retail campaigning of Trudy Busch Valentine (D) in the open U.S. Senate seat race. We covered somewhere around 14 campaign events across the state starting after the August primary and through October.

    I learned that not all (reported, sort of) billionaires are evil. Instead, Trudy Busch Valentine (D) was down to earth, approachable, human, empathetic, and possesed a warm sense of humor. Being an RN probably had a lot to do with that. She really likes people and enjoyed the one-on-one interaction with voters.

    Missouri voters seriously missed the boat on that race, electing right wingnut Missouri Attorney General and Trump sychophant Eric Schmitt (r) by 13 points to replace Roy Blunt (r) in the U.S. Senate. Eric Schmitt will be the sole U.S. Senator representing the state. Josh Hawley (r-Fascist pig) will continue as the third Senator from Virginia…

  72. 72.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 6:40 pm

    @Glory b: HA!  He eats whipped cream from a can!  HILARIOUS!

  73. 73.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:42 pm

    @Glory b: Sweet!

  74. 74.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 6:42 pm

    @Freemark: I personally think the hard part would be finding races where some money would make a difference.  That is, the race isn’t a blowout, the Dem candidate is reasonably qualified/skilled, and needs some money to improve their situation.  It’s not easy to do the work of finding such candidates; if somebody were to do that work, I suspect people around here would donate.

    I know I would.

  75. 75.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:42 pm

    @Anyway: Poll workers are so important!  Good for you.

  76. 76.

    UncleEbeneezer

    January 2, 2023 at 6:43 pm

    Getting one more Dem Senator was HUGE!!  As Michael Popok explained on that Legal AF podcast episode I shared, Trump largely failed to pack the Circuit and Appeals courts the way Biden currently is.  Trump was gifted 3 judges on SCOTUS, which sucks but was unavoidable.  Biden is actually reshaping the judiciary of everything below SCOTUS very much in our side’s favor.  Had Dems retained the House but lost the Senate, there would be very little Biden could do with the next two years.  At least now he can keep appointed judges.

  77. 77.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:44 pm

    @Freemark: Are you thinking more of what we called “reverse coattails in super swing districts?”

  78. 78.

    eclare

    January 2, 2023 at 6:45 pm

    @WaterGirl:   You did an excellent job of focusing our political donations to Four Directions, etc.  I remember you posting the photo of the door knockers in GA that we sponsored, so inspiring.  Boots on the ground is the way to go!

  79. 79.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 6:46 pm

    @UncleEbeneezer: I was thinking this very thing this morning as I was waking up: that if we had to choose one of the Houses to lose, the House of Representatives was the one to let go.  B/c of the Senate appointment and confirmation power, esp. for judges.

  80. 80.

    frosty

    January 2, 2023 at 6:47 pm

    @brendancalling: ​After canvassing Allentown I decided I’d better get my Spanish back. Ms F and I are signed up for lessons through takelessons.com.​

    ETA: Good work for all those weekends! I couldn’t get myself out that often.

  81. 81.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:48 pm

    @Michael Bersin: Yeah I held my nose for Pritzker in IL for governor the first time around, assuming he was a total asshole rich whilte male who thinks he’s entitled to be governor.

    Boy was I wrong!  We have been so lucky to have him.

    I’m sorry about your results in Missouri.

    I’m not familiar with Show Me Progress.  ??

  82. 82.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:49 pm

    @Chetan Murthy: Yeah, in future posts, we are going to look at how our experiment with “reverse coattails in super-swing districts” turned out.

    BlueGuitarist did all the research for that!

  83. 83.

    frosty

    January 2, 2023 at 6:52 pm

    @WaterGirl: ​Well, technically … I made the decision to canvass in 2004 for Kerry and I’ve been waiting ever since for an election where I felt I could slack off and it would be OK.

  84. 84.

    Torrey

    January 2, 2023 at 6:52 pm

    @WaterGirl:

      I see that everyone else has gotten there first, but there’s is one case where there’s nothing wrong with piling on. So here’s my little addition. You own a piece of every dollar that was donated on this site, of every penny that went to a place where it would do the most good instead of where those of us who don’t have time to do the research (I speak for myself) would have sent it, almost certainly to less effect. You own a piece of every postcard that got written because you kept the importance of this election in front of us. (I’m not referring to those who were already knee deep in postcards–I’m speaking, again, for myself. Life happens, and other things get in the way, so I needed reminding to take a few minutes and get some postcards out from time to time. Maybe one or two others did, as well.)
    So that sweat equity and organizing made a lot of good things happen that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. And thank you!

  85. 85.

    Michael Bersin

    January 2, 2023 at 6:53 pm

    @WaterGirl: Show Me Progress started in 2007 as part of the Fifty State Blog Project. For the most part it’s down to me, still covering government anf politics in Missouri. We’re read by dozens…

  86. 86.

    munira

    January 2, 2023 at 6:53 pm

    @CaseyL: I’m in the same category – donated some and wrote some post cards – not a lot of either, but told myself every little bit counts – and of course voted.

  87. 87.

    Fake Irishman

    January 2, 2023 at 6:54 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    One thing I really respect about you all is how you try to make practical positive change. I remember reading an LGM post by Erik Loomis making fun of folks who gave to political campaigns because some folks who get a lot of money lose.

    instead of snarking at people trying to make a difference, what  Watergirl and every one else here did was say: “OK, we have some cash, what sorts of groups and types of races can we direct it to to make a decisive difference?”
    And we all came up with some really interesting and creative answers. (Native peoples’  votes in swing states, state level offices that secure democracy, etc)

    We might have made the difference in the Arizona AG’s race.

    Thank you all.

    (several thousand for me this cycle since I have two small kids, a doctor wife constant respiratory infections and almost zero time at this point)

  88. 88.

    frosty

    January 2, 2023 at 6:54 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: ​Nice work, congratulations! Thanks for becoming a citizen, you’re making a difference.

  89. 89.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 6:58 pm

    @Michael Bersin: Interesting!  Is Show Me Progress still active in all 50 states?

  90. 90.

    Freemark

    January 2, 2023 at 6:59 pm

    @WaterGirl: Definitely some of that. But not all races have the same vote dates but would still be worth funding even if not useful for ‘revers coattails’.

    Agree with CM identifying races/ candidates may be the biggest problem. Even though I disagree with the blowout reasoning. Even races where the Dem has little chance can be worth funding in key areas. For example, here in Pa a lot of central Pa Dems may have a low chance but even small amounts of funding may give them a chance and would get the Dem message out in areas that generally get no Dem funding at all. A gain of one or two state senators and/or reps plus maybe changing the percentage a county goes for a state level or national race by a 1/4 percent could make a difference in a state like this.

  91. 91.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 7:00 pm

    @Torrey: @Fake Irishman:

    You are both very kind, thank you!

  92. 92.

    eclare

    January 2, 2023 at 7:02 pm

    @Fake Irishman:   I think we made a difference for Masto in NV.  I remember WG putting up an emergency fund raiser for her toward the end.  IIRC we raised around $5k in an hour or two.

  93. 93.

    frosty

    January 2, 2023 at 7:02 pm

    @Freemark: ​What do the jackals think of expanding what we did this year with more local ‘up-ballot’ races. It worries me how much billionaire money is going to local races, especially school boards.

    I agree. The “Parents and Taxpayers Coalition” is coming for our school board in the Fall and I’m afraid I’m going to have to get involved. I thought I could take a year off.
    Here’s their goals:Parental Rights, Genuine Education,… Stopping Far-Left Ideology​

    ETA: @Chetan Murthy: Supporting a Democrat in this County is a waste of time and money. My goal is to find rational reasonable Republicans, maybe the current Board, and stop these assholes from taking over.
    ​
    ​

  94. 94.

    Martin

    January 2, 2023 at 7:03 pm

    Yeah, this is what I’ve been saying for some years. White christian nationalism to some degree has held power in this country basically forever. Democrats started giving it up in the 60s, not so much by design as by necessity. LBJ said that he’d cost Democrats the south for a generation, but it was Nixon running in to maximize the GOP benefit from that decision that turned that into a multi-generational effect. With Democrats less and less likely to defend the institutions that preserved white christian dominance the GOP became more and more concentrated on that role, and with white christians falling below 50% of the US population around a decade ago, their only ability to control elections was to concentrate inside the GOP and put that and only that to the front of the agenda, so that’s literally all the GOP is now. And unlike other policy issues where compromise is feasible to grow the party – settle for civil unions instead of gay marriage, compromise on tax policy in some way, etc. white christian nationalism is fully binary. You’re either on board or you aren’t so as long as that is the primary agenda of the GOP, their voting base is strictly defined – and it’s shrinking. That said, it can be redefined. They can try and pull latino christians into the fold, and to some degree they have, but it remains to be seen if it’ll really work, or if they can pull them in faster than their population is dropping. The main issue being that young whites are abandoning Christianity pretty rapidly. Young latinos are as well, just not quite as quickly. That’s a terrible dynamic to be building a party into.

    So per kalakal’s point, the mechanical tricks to prop the party up – voter suppression, gerrymandering, aren’t working well enough, which is why we’re sliding into the violence part. White christian nationalism has always been more important than democracy – ask any black person from the south who saw the gains from reconstruction all get literally burned down. Don’t think that’s any less true today.

    I agree it was likely a crest, but only if we assume the rules of the game stay the same. There are 6 USSC votes that suggest that the rules won’t stay the same. There’s a hesitancy to hold obvious threats to the nation accountable by feds and states. I don’t think they’re remotely close to having played their full hand here.

  95. 95.

    Omnes Omnibus

    January 2, 2023 at 7:03 pm

    I donated and canvassed.  I also did my best to push back on the idea that a terrible result was inevitable.  The future is unwritten.

  96. 96.

    Michael Bersin

    January 2, 2023 at 7:08 pm

    @WaterGirl: Well, we do cover stuff in Kansas and Iowa (when I can get there) and sometimes Wisconsin. We had a lot of fun trips covering presidential candidates in the lead up to the Iowa caucuses. Great fun, but after observing several iterations the Iowa caucus shouldn’t select the party’s nominee nor should its media markets suck up hundreds of millions of dollars in Democratic donors’ contributions.

    The Fifty State Blog Project helped promote individual progressive blogs in each state. Show Me Progress is/was the Missouri entry in the fold. As far as I can tell we’re one of the few from that era still operating. Maybe the only one, though I haven’t checked in over a decade…

  97. 97.

    Martin

    January 2, 2023 at 7:10 pm

    @frosty: Things are going to get more polarized. Here in OC my city has a Dem supermajority, and the county does as well. That’s really unheard of. But places where the GOP can advance their white nationalist agenda, they’ll be going all in. For me, it’s make hay while the conditions are good. I don’t think anyone gets time off.

  98. 98.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 7:13 pm

    @eclare: I’m actually convinced that we made a difference in a number of ways, in a number of races. That we made a difference in a number of states.  We’ll see what everyone thinks when we roll out the data.

    Of course, some of the ways we made a different aren’t measurable.

    For instance, we raised $4,000 for Mercedes Krause, who didn’t come close to winning.  But she almost certainly made a huge difference in the Native vote turnout in NV because they were very excited about her.  And those folks weren’t just voting for Mercedes, they overwhelmingly voted D up and down the ballot.

    We raised $8,000 for Janet Mills (gov-Maine) at the last minute when the Rs rolled out a bunch of ads against her, filled with lies.  She ended up winning with a pretty good margin, so it’s unlikely that our $8k got her the win.  But did $8,000+ rolling in over a period of a few hours from a whole bunch of small donors give Janet Mills and her campaign a shot in the arm that Sunday when they maybe felt like the lies were going to win out over the truth?

    I would say probably yes.

    Even when we gave to individual candidates we tried to be strategic about it, and I feel good about that.

  99. 99.

    schrodingers_cat

    January 2, 2023 at 7:13 pm

    @frosty: Thanks so much, I appreciate it.

  100. 100.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 7:15 pm

    @Michael Bersin: In a way it’s sad that it couldn’t be sustained across 50 states, but it’s great that you’re still doing it.  Everything we do makes a difference, I think.

  101. 101.

    Michael Bersin

    January 2, 2023 at 7:18 pm

    @WaterGirl: Exactly.

    Missouri right wingnuts know who we are. We aim to keep it that way.

  102. 102.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 7:18 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: I was very grateful for that!

  103. 103.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 7:19 pm

    @Michael Bersin:  Great attitude!

  104. 104.

    frosty

    January 2, 2023 at 7:20 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: ​Your pushback was helpful. Thanks for that.​

  105. 105.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 2, 2023 at 7:21 pm

    WG, thank you for always being positive. I’m sorry I couldn’t always be

  106. 106.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    January 2, 2023 at 7:21 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I’ve said it before, but thank you for that

  107. 107.

    Miss Bianca

    January 2, 2023 at 7:34 pm

    @Chetan Murthy: I read that Richard Hanania piece and all I got to say is…yeah, he’s still got a *loooooong* way to go. “Wokeism” leads to neurotic women? Yeah. Cool story, bro. Welcome to the party but sit down and shut up for a while.

  108. 108.

    James E Powell

    January 2, 2023 at 7:35 pm

    I donated & I texted total strangers because the campaigns told me it increased turnout. The campaigns I texted for all lost, but one, Will Rollins in CA-41, did a lot better than I thought it would.

    I felt like the texting was less annoying than phone calling. And with everyone getting mail ballots, it wasn’t “Make sure you go & vote!” it was “Just a reminder to make sure to mail your ballot on time” which seems less obnoxious. I could be wrong.

    We Democrats have to figure out how to generate turnout more efficiently.

  109. 109.

    karen marie

    January 2, 2023 at 7:38 pm

    @Another Scott:  Does anyone here know how this works?  Is it one vote?  Multiple votes?  Is it 50% plus one wins?  Is that 50% of the total House members or 50% of House members present?

    Could we see a Speaker Jeffries elected in this GOP shitshow?

  110. 110.

    bbleh

    January 2, 2023 at 7:39 pm

    Donated a bunch of money. Researched state and local elections, prepared a concise voter guide, distributed to family & friends, and nagged them til they voted.  Got a ballot for my 95-y/o mom and walked her through it (she actually voted differently than I did on a couple races).  No time for much else, alas.  But who knows; every little bit helps.

  111. 111.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 7:40 pm

    @James E Powell:  Thank you.  There are so many different ways to help, and it’s great to see all the ways we contributed.

  112. 112.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 7:42 pm

    @karen marie: Someone will correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe it is 50% + 1 of all the people who are present and voting.  If someone abstains, they are not included in the “N”.

  113. 113.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 2, 2023 at 7:43 pm

    @karen marie:

    Could we see a Speaker Jeffries elected in this GOP shitshow?

    No

  114. 114.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 7:44 pm

    @bbleh: Sounds to me like you did a lot!  Thank you.

  115. 115.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 7:45 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Technically, we could, right?  It’s just beyond unlikely?

  116. 116.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 7:46 pm

    @James E Powell: Yeah, they don’t all come out the way we would like.  You fight for all the ones that seem possible and hope that you win a lot more than the ones you don’t win.  Thanks for doing everything you did.

  117. 117.

    kalakal

    January 2, 2023 at 7:50 pm

    @WaterGirl: I think that’s the case. Possible but not probable as my old physics teacher liked to say

  118. 118.

    Steeplejack

    January 2, 2023 at 7:50 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    I can sort of see how the GQP nutters think Marjorie Taylor Greene is a big deal—she’s semi-articulate and apparently raises a ton of money—but Lauren Boebert?! That’s who they’re sending on this big mission with Gaetz and Perry? C’mon, man.

  119. 119.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 8:03 pm

    @kalakal: I hope you don’t mind that I quoted you up top?

  120. 120.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 8:03 pm

    @Steeplejack: Boebert sends a tingle up their leg.

    edit:  If they were playing the Kill-Marry-Fuck game, i’m sure she would be Fuck.

  121. 121.

    Jackie

    January 2, 2023 at 8:04 pm

    @karen marie: I have no clue, but I’m supplied with popcorn, and I hope MSNBC and CNN carry it live! With the cameras zoomed in on Kaven McCarthy 😂

  122. 122.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 8:07 pm

    @Steeplejack: Oh come now!  MTG?  She’s a RINO!  She support McCarthy for Speaker, after all!

  123. 123.

    Chetan Murthy

    January 2, 2023 at 8:08 pm

    @WaterGirl: Eew.  She reminds of me when my mom would say “you keep making that face, it’ll freeze that way” — b/c her face *did

  124. 124.

    Yet Another Haldane

    January 2, 2023 at 8:10 pm

    Tangent:

    The Guns of Will Sonnet!  I can still hear that line in Walter Brennan’s voice, “No brag, just fact.”

  125. 125.

    Quiltingfool

    January 2, 2023 at 8:12 pm

    @Michael Bersin: I am one of the dozens that reads Show Me Progress!  Thank you!

    I enjoy the posts that show photos of Warrensburg.  I graduated from UMC (well, it was CMSU back then, lol) and I love the town.  My mother and father graduated from CMSU, and both sides of my family are (or were) Johnson County residents.  West Central Missouri is my heart place!

  126. 126.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 8:19 pm

    @Yet Another Haldane: I didn’t recall where it was from, but I clearly remember the phrase.

  127. 127.

    Quiltingfool

    January 2, 2023 at 8:19 pm

    @Quiltingfool: Oops.  Not UMC, UCM (University of Central Missouri, Go Mules!)

  128. 128.

    Geminid

    January 2, 2023 at 8:20 pm

    I like how Democrats in Springfield  included Watergirl’s town in the redrawn 13th Illinois Congressional District. They sensed Watergirl’s impact on the upcoming midterms and rewarded her with a new Democratic Representative, the capable Nikki Budzinski.

  129. 129.

    Geminid

    January 2, 2023 at 8:22 pm

    @Jackie: I think you mispelled “Craven McCarthy.”

  130. 130.

    PaulB

    January 2, 2023 at 8:27 pm

    @WaterGirl: I didn’t write a single postcard, and I didn’t donate a whole lot. I went with sweat equity by organizing fundraising and posts and postcard parties.

    I can honestly say that without your efforts, my own contributions would have been perhaps as low as a tenth of what I ended up donating. You were directly responsible for my digging deep, and I suspect that others here had similar experiences.

    The work you put in was directly responsible for the successful fundraising efforts of the entire Jackal tribe.

  131. 131.

    StringOnAStick

    January 2, 2023 at 8:29 pm

    I wrote just over 500 postcards, mostly for the GA senate, regular election and runoff.  I have ongoing monthly contributions to Four Directions, Stacey Abrams get out the vote group, and to my 2 solid D Senators, plus monthly contributions to Ukraine causes.  I participated in most of the fund raising calls here, more so than I have ever done politically before because of the hard work done by Watergirl and others to identify where our money would have the most impact.  Previously I have felt like I responding emotionally to all the desperate fund raising email tactics; this is the first time I have ever felt like my money went to the best possible groups and for the best possible causes.  Thanks to Watergirl for leading the charge!

  132. 132.

    Michael Bersin

    January 2, 2023 at 8:32 pm

    @Quiltingfool: Appreciate that!

  133. 133.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 8:32 pm

    @Geminid: Champaign, with the university, is the big blue spot in the county, I’m sure!

    I still have my Unseat Rodney (Fucking) Davis magnet on my car.  I noticed someone else had the same magnet on their car, too, on Saturday.  He was dreadful.  Our 45-year-old state senator died suddenly (recently) which is sad.

  134. 134.

    Jackie

    January 2, 2023 at 8:34 pm

    @Geminid: Both work😉

  135. 135.

    Steeplejack

    January 2, 2023 at 8:39 pm

    @zhena gogolia:

    That is nuts! Lawrence Welk meets Eurovision outtakes.

  136. 136.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 8:46 pm

    @PaulB: Since you didn’t mention anything about throwing darts, I assume you aren’t cursing me for all your extra donating!  :-)

    @StringOnAStick:  Wow on all the postcards!  And the donations.

    Thanks to both of you for your kind words.

  137. 137.

    mrmoshpotato

    January 2, 2023 at 8:48 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    Yeah I held my nose for Pritzker in IL for governor the first time around, assuming he was a total asshole rich whilte male who thinks he’s entitled to be governor.

    Boy was I wrong!  We have been so lucky to have him.

    Basically the same here, but I was more pissed about the billionaire v asshole Rethuglican billionaire gubernatorial election.

    Pritzker has done a great job by me – especially stepping up with steering IL through COVID!

  138. 138.

    Rocks

    January 2, 2023 at 8:51 pm

    Vice chair of the Democratic Party in my county in New Mexico.  We cleaned their clocks, and we’re going to do it again in 2024.

  139. 139.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 8:52 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: I couldn’t watch any of the ads – the thought of the black Republican candidate with his face twisted in hate and anger was too stressful for me.

    Was he a billionaire, too?  Or are you referring to someone else?

  140. 140.

    PaulB

    January 2, 2023 at 8:53 pm

    @WaterGirl: Since you didn’t mention anything about throwing darts, I assume you aren’t cursing me for all your extra donating!  :-)

    Nope. Enormously grateful that you took the time to find the right donation opportunities and that you provided the nudges I needed to make a difference. My little bit wasn’t that big a deal, but my little bit added with everyone else’s little bit, was.

    2023 will be something of a financial pullback year for me, but only so that I can save up to do it again when you call on me in 2024, which I hope you will.

  141. 141.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 8:53 pm

    @Rocks: New Mexico had a great year!

  142. 142.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 8:54 pm

    @PaulB: You can count on that. :-)  I think our experiment in strategic giving and boots on the ground was a success.

  143. 143.

    FelonyGovt

    January 2, 2023 at 9:04 pm

    @zhena gogolia: Where’s Guy Lombardo?

  144. 144.

    kalakal

    January 2, 2023 at 9:06 pm

    @WaterGirl:

    I hope you don’t mind that I quoted you up top?

    Good heavens no! Very flattering

  145. 145.

    Omnes Omnibus

    January 2, 2023 at 9:10 pm

    @FelonyGovt: ​
      Fell out a window.

  146. 146.

    FelonyGovt

    January 2, 2023 at 9:17 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): It’s fine. If I were a young person like you I’d be worried as well. Us older folks have just seen more cycles.

    @WaterGirl at top: I believe you were responsible in large part for the great results in Arizona and elsewhere. You found worthy and creative donation recipients, urged us to keep going and to remain optimistic.

    For my part, I wrote a zillion postcards, donated what I could, and talked to many, many normies and urged them to vote.

  147. 147.

    RevRick

    January 2, 2023 at 9:51 pm

    @frosty: You’re in Allentown? Me too!

  148. 148.

    mrmoshpotato

    January 2, 2023 at 9:59 pm

    @WaterGirl: Sorry.  I was referring to Pritzker v Rauner.

  149. 149.

    James E Powell

    January 2, 2023 at 10:12 pm

    As many have noted, many many thanks to everyone & most especially to those in AZ, GA, NV, & PA, but also to all those who raged against the dying of the light in FL, NC, OH, & WI.

  150. 150.

    mvr

    January 2, 2023 at 10:16 pm

    I spent a good deal of money (much of it on the various matches WaterGirl put together – a real contribution on her part). I don’t want to add it up but I have gigantic credit card balances that I will be raiding my retirement to pay.  A good bit of that was for the election, though much of what I charged went to materials for work on the house.  Some of it went to races we won, some to races that we lost.

    I also voted.

    I’m going to continue donating for the Wisconsin Supreme Court race and my local mayor’s race. Our governor is already in on the other side of that race for something like $100K from what I hear (I could be wrong on the number). He wants to be appointed Senator by his successor who he also funded big time.

  151. 151.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 10:45 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: I have never even be able to bring myself to say his name out loud.  He was horrible.  Just awful.

  152. 152.

    WaterGirl

    January 2, 2023 at 10:49 pm

    @mvr: Thanks for everything you did for 2022!

    I am a bit confused by this:

    Our governor is already in on the other side of that race for something like $100K from what I hear (I could be wrong on the number). He wants to be appointed Senator by his successor who he also funded big time.

    I assume you’re talking about Wisconsin, right?  Evers is a Dem, and he won, right?  So I’m confused, can you fill me in?

  153. 153.

    Another Scott

    January 2, 2023 at 11:00 pm

    @karen marie: They keep voting until someone wins (but it can take a long time, worst case).

    I got some things wrong above. This Chad guy (“Senior Congressional Corrrespondant for Fox News”) seems to know what he’s talking about, here:

    Thread:

    1) The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Vote for House Speaker. The 118th Congress convenes for the first time on Tuesday at noon et. “Opening day” in Congress is always full of pageantry. Lawmakers pour into the Capitol with their families from all over the country.

    — Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 2, 2023

    (via Stephen Robinson at Wonkette)

    HTH!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  154. 154.

    mvr

    January 2, 2023 at 11:14 pm

    @WaterGirl: ​
    I live in Lincoln Nebraska, but I also donate in Wisconsin since races there matter a lot, Ds have a chance of winning, and this particular race is pretty important to whether the Governor there gets to govern.
    Lincoln’s Mayor is the leading D executive official in the state of NEbraska. Because Lincoln’s health department was around before the state’s our city got to forge its own path and despite Rickett’s threats it mandated masks, thereby saving the University’s ass when it was going to stick us all in classrooms without masks as Omicron was going up. Ricketts is vindictive and rich. He expects to be appointed to replace Ben Sasse when he resigns this week. Most of us think he’s right about that because he basically got Pillen his job as his successor.

  155. 155.

    frosty

    January 3, 2023 at 1:13 am

    @RevRick: ​
     Nope, drove up there from York County to work for a Democratic congresswoman who could actually win, not like down here in Confederate Pennsylvania.

  156. 156.

    WaterGirl

    January 3, 2023 at 9:15 am

    @mvr: Ah, thank you.

  157. 157.

    Kay

    January 3, 2023 at 9:15 am

    Marcy Kaptur is a good advocate so I think she’s perfectly justified in calling attention to working class people, who are her people (and her voters- I’ve canvassed for her) and part of effective advocacy is making noise and pushing.  BUT I think Obama and now Biden have done a lot for the Great Lakes region working class so I wish she would credit them in that article (she does in her stump speeches and town halls). Manufacturing in Ohio is really booming and it’s good wages. It’s just not true anymore that everyone is making 10 an hour with no benefits.

    People really do love her, even where I live which is very Republican.I think she has an earned reputation as a smart hard worker who is also, btw, squeaky clean. A big part of her appeal (to me) is I think she’s ethically very solid.

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