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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 313: A Big Boom!

War for Ukraine Day 313: A Big Boom!

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Yesterday the Ukrainians struck a Russian position in Russian occupied Makiivka:

The Guardian has the details on the strike:

A New Year’s Day attack on a complex in the Russian-controlled Ukrainian city of Makiivka has killed scores of recently mobilised troops sent by Moscow, in one of deadliest single strikes against Russia’s forces since the war began.

Russia’s defence ministry, in a rare admission on Monday, said 63 Russian soldiers died when Ukraine hit “a temporary deployment facility” with four US-supplied Himars missiles.

Without claiming the strike, Ukraine’s military command said up to 400 Russian soldiers were killed in the city, which is in a Moscow-controlled area of the Donetsk region.

Even if the total numbers are lower, the strike in Makiivka would be one of the deadliest attacks involving conscripts and will add further pressure on Moscow’s military leaders.

Reuters has some more:

Russia’s Defence Ministry acknowledged the attack only in the final paragraph of a 528-word daily roundup, more than 36 hours later.

Even then, it did not address some of the allegations made by pro-war bloggers, who said casualties were far higher, and that the military had not only failed to hide its soldiers from the enemy but also stored ammunition close by.

Nationalist bloggers and chat-show hosts with hundreds of thousands of followers have had licence from the Kremlin to publicise the failings of the army – a potential criminal act under a law passed shortly after the invasion of Ukraine in February.

Ukraine had alleged that 400 Russians had been killed, a number dismissed as an exaggeration by Russian bloggers.

A pro-war blogger known as Rybar, with more than a million subscribers on Telegram, said that, besides around 70 confirmed dead, more than 100 had been wounded. He said about 600 people had been in the building.

Igor Girkin, a former commander of pro-Russian troops in east Ukraine who has become a high-profile critic of Russia’s military, said on Telegram that there were “many hundreds” of dead and wounded.

Like Rybar, he said ammunition had been stored at the college, potentially accounting for its extreme devastation, and that the military’s presence had not been disguised.

Archangel Spetznaz Z, another Russian military blogger with more than 700,000 followers on Telegram, wrote:

“Who came up with the idea to place personnel in large numbers in one building, where even a fool understands that even if they hit with artillery, there will be many wounded or dead?”

Reuters was unable to verify the battlefield accounts, but did confirm the location of the video from the buildings and road layout seen in the footage, although not the date that it was filmed.

Here’s Girkin’s actual response courtesy of Dmitri at WarTranslated:

President Zelenskyy’s address, both video and English transcript, will be after the jump today.

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

Only two days have passed since the beginning of the year, and the number of Iranian drones shot down over Ukraine is already more than eighty. This number may increase in the near future. Because these weeks the nights can be quite restless.

We have information that Russia is planning a prolonged attack with “Shaheds”. Its bet may be on exhaustion. On exhaustion of our people, our air defense, our energy sector.

But we must ensure – and we will do everything for this – that this goal of terrorists fails like all the others.

Today, I would like to mention the Air Commands “Center”, “South” and “East” for the successful protection of the sky these days. And especially – the warriors of the 96th Kyiv, 208th Kherson and 138th Dnipro anti-aircraft missile brigades, the 301st Nikopol anti-aircraft missile regiment of the Air Forces, as well as the warriors of the 39th anti-aircraft missile regiment of the Ground Forces.

Of course, I am grateful to our pilots, the pilots of our fighters and warriors of mobile firing groups.

Now is the time when everyone involved in the protection of the sky should be especially attentive.

The Russian regime needs mobilizing emotions. Something that they want to demonstrate to their country in order to continue lying that everything is going “according to the plan”. And our task is to give Ukraine every day successes, achievements, even small, yet victories over terrorists and terror. Each shot down drone, each shot down missile, each day with electricity for our people and minimal schedules of blackouts are exactly such victories.

And every step forward of our servicemen at the front, every saved position is such successes that are of strategic importance now.

We must increase the price of new mobilization and war in general for the terrorist state as much as possible. I am grateful to every warrior of ours who ensures this!

I am grateful to everyone who stands near Bakhmut! I am grateful to everyone who despite everything holds positions in Soledar and other areas!

Thank you for the Luhansk region, for the south!

No matter how difficult it is now, we must endure it. For it to be easier at the end of this winter.

Today I spoke with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. I am glad that the first international conversation in the new year was held with the head of the European Commission.

We equally understand the challenges of this winter, this year for Ukraine and the whole of Europe. We have discussed financial support for our state – in January, we expect the first tranche of macro-financial aid, as was agreed upon last year.

This is extremely important right now, when Russia is trying to gather new forces for aggression.

We have also discussed the preparation of the Ukraine-EU Summit to be held in early February. I believe that at this summit, we will be able to outline the key new steps for this year for our common resilience, for our common victory.

Today, I held a special preparatory meeting with members of the NSDC and representatives of the Cabinet of Ministers, the Verkhovna Rada and the Office on global trends for Ukraine this year and in the future. I instructed to elaborate draft decisions of the NSDC for the internal transformation of our state to continue and for us to ensure security and leadership of Ukraine under any external conditions.

I am grateful to everyone who will be on duty at combat posts tonight! 

I am grateful to all who are fighting for our native Ukraine!

I am grateful to everyone who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is Major General Budanov’s take on the strikes on the Engels airbase in Russia:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Kremenna:

 

To reapply Abba Eban’s famous quote regarding the Palestinians, the Israelis never miss an opportunity to miss an oppurtunity:

 

Don’t make vodka at home in the bathtub from whatever you’ve got lying around!

Also, whoever got into my storage pod, stole my table cloth, and made it into a dress has some explaining to do!

The Financial Times editorial board gets it right!

Ukraine’s battlefield successes do not mean its allies can ease up on support. There are signs Moscow plans a new offensive. Even if that does not materialise, a festering stalemate could play into Putin’s hands. For him, long-term destabilisation of Ukraine is a win.

Nor is this the time to entertain the idea of ceasefires or negotiation. With Russia still in control of much of the four regions it “annexed” in October, plus Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas seized in 2014, the conditions are not right for Kyiv to come to the table.

Ukraine’s allies should instead do everything possible to ensure it can repel any renewed onslaught, and regain more territory. The aim is to put Kyiv in a position where it feels able to negotiate, with the strongest possible hand. That means budget support and accelerated financial help with repairing infrastructure.

It also means more sophisticated defensive weapons, such as the Patriot missile defence system now approved by Washington, and offensive arms. Ukraine needs longer-range missiles, helicopters and tanks. The US and others have balked at supplying such weapons for fear they could be used to hit targets inside Russia, potentially triggering a Nato-Russia conflict, or in an effort to retake Crimea that Putin has hinted might provoke a nuclear stand-off.

It is fair for Washington to agree privately with Kyiv on rules of engagement for weapons it provides. But the objective should be to push Russia back at least to pre-February 24 lines. Retaking southern regions would put Kyiv in striking range of Crimea, giving it a robust negotiating stance. Ukraine’s people were in 2022 an example to the world of fortitude and resilience. They deserve redoubled support in 2023.

Much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is no new video tonight from Patron’s official TikTok.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

71Comments

  3. 3.

    Cmorenc

    To what extent and when might the GOP house assholes who are either putin’s useful idiots (some) or actually in his pocket (others) be able to begin crippling us support for ukranian resistance?  If mccarthy fails to win the speakership, are any of the realistically potential alternatives more favorable to supporting ukraine?

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    I enjoy russians being scared.

    I also enjoyed Budanov’s answers in that clip, and I love how supremely chill he seems. Reminds me of the soldier a few months back who, when asked if there would be a push in Kherson, just smiled and started eating a slice of watermelon.

    Israel continues to be a shanda. A day that ends in ‘y’.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  5. 5.

    BC in Illinois

    Apparently, there are reports of explosions in Sevastopol.

    And I discover that, if you call up “Sevastopol” on Google Maps, they will not specify

    • Sevastopol Ukraine, or
    • Sevastopol (not Ukraine).

    Google Maps doesn’t want to get involved.

  7. 7.

    dmsilev

    No ‘Boom today’ Susan Ivanova clip or Marvin the Martian ‘Earth shattering kaboom’ image? You’re slipping, Adam.

  8. 8.

    WaterGirl

    These people were watching Putin’s propaganda video (the one where he’s standing in front of actors dressed as soldiers) when the strike occurred.

    I laughed out loud. 400 died and 300 more injured and I laughed.  Has there ever been a war before that was so clearly between good and evil, right and wrong?

  16. 16.

    Gin & Tonic

    @WaterGirl: Kherson is famous for its watermelons. The soldier saying nothing and eating a slice of watermelon may as well have been holding a flashing neon sign.

    In summer, in Kyiv, the arrival of the first Kherson watermelons in the markets is a day of rejoicing.

  17. 17.

    lowtechcyclist

    For more kabooms, or at least prologue and aftermath, check out this Rob Lee thread.
    Apparently a Russian soldier posted some photos of him and his buddies, and forgot to turn off the location tagging. They were geolocated to the Grand Prix country club in Sahy, Kherson Oblast, and now the country club is a bit worse for wear, to say the least.​
     

    ETA: This apparently happened in November.

  19. 19.

    Chetan Murthy

    @lowtechcyclist: And the soldier *goes back* to the country club afterwards, ends up showing the damage (so UA AF get an after-action damage assessment survey/report !!)

  20. 20.

    Gin & Tonic

    If you have access to Instagram and a few extra seconds, I recommend this “reel” of a soldier in Bakhmut. Viewer discretion is advised.

    Yesterday, I got a New Year’s greeting from a friend who is stationed there: “Happy New Year 2023, the year of our victory.” (He is not the soldier in the reel.)

  21. 21.

    zhena gogolia

    @scav: OMG, what it looks like when an entire country goes insane. And have they entered some time warp that takes them back to 1952? I can’t, I just can’t

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @BC in Illinois: Ukrainian drone strikes. Russian air defense went active in Sevastapol an Simferopol. I’ve seen Rybar – one of the more reliable pro-war Russian mil bloggers – confirm it. Also, Jason Jay Smart from The Kyiv Post. Haven’t seen anything on whether the drones got through to their targets yet.

  26. 26.

    Raoul Paste

    That Russian video is so surreal.  It could be part of a Terry Gilliam movie.  Disturbing.

  27. 27.

    Kent

    @jackmac: That Julia Davis clip is what happens when you purge all the LGBT people and all the young people from your artistic endeavors as Russia has done.

  28. 28.

    trollhattan

    “What if all Russia teevee is like ‘Donny and Marie’ only without the Donny or the Marie, and all audience clap like North Korea arirang audience?”

    “You having job!”

  29. 29.

    Mallard Filmore

    *Tap tap tap*   Hello?  Hello?  Is this thing on? For those of you that like big booms.

    Just a day after destroying an ammo dump in Donetsk stored in the same school building as hundreds of Russian soldiers, Ukraine has destroyed a huge Russian ammo dump near Svatove.

    The exact size of the dump isn’t known, but it has been estimated that it has been stocked for two weeks.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/2/2144983/-Ukraine-hits-huge-Russian-ammo-dump-at-Svatove

  30. 30.

    Freemark

    @Adam L Silverman: Rybar definitely ain’t reliable about 70 dead/ 100 injured if there were 600 people in that building. Every single person in that former building was at least injured and only 70 dead would be a miracle.

  31. 31.

    patrick II

    The Russian New Year’s party reminds me of the picnic scene in “Get Out” where everyone’s forced smile and cheerfulness were an effort to suppress the knowledge of the murder they were about to commit.

  32. 32.

    Ohio Mom

    @WaterGirl: World War II was pretty clear on who was good and who was evil. But in my life time, this is the first war in which the US has taken a side that I agree with wholeheartedly.

    On another note, when Ohio Son was a toddler, he went through a period when he loved watching Lawrence Welk. I know people are comparing that Russian show to Larry’s (as we affectionately starting calling him) but Larry was much better quality. There was actual humor and good cheer and musical talent.

  36. 36.

    trollhattan

    @zhena gogolia: I do believe it, and ponder if all the enthusiastic, artistic Russians have been driven out of the country or intimidated into silence. (The journalists, guess they also have door #3.) It’s one of the saddest outcomes of Putin’s rise that their best people have been silenced.

  37. 37.

    wombat probabilty cloud

    @Ohio Mom: I understand the comparison based on the superficial cheesiness of presentation. But–having grown up with a single TV station in central Wisconsin that broadcast Dairyland Jubilee every weekend (a polka extravaganza) and now with one of my dearest friends who grew up in Strasburg, ND, Welk’s home town that he visited regularly and supported–I think the difference is the relative innocence, and lack of irony, of those prior times. What my friend and I experienced when young was home-grown culture (granted with all sorts of fucked up things embedded in it like pineapple or cherries in jello salad) but not broadcast with the intent of manipulation of minds. It was a non-weaponized expression of the culture put out to share joy.

  39. 39.

    Lyrebird

    @Ohio Mom: When I was little, I went through a serious hate for Laurence Welk’s show, which a babysitter of ours loved.  Even so, I can agree wholeheartedly that it was never like that.  He seemed genuinely kind.  Family from Odessa, now that I look it up!

     

    Never a dig at other countries or anything ominous

     

    ETA: Wombat probability cloud said it better than I did, but hey.

  41. 41.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ihop: It reminded me of the old joke about how when Stalin finishes a speech, everybody claps.  The one who stops first gets sent off to the Gulag, so y’know, they never stop.

  43. 43.

    CaseyL

    @zhena gogolia: That very brief window of time before the USSR fell, when the people of Moscow made themselves a cordon around Parliament to protect against the anti-Gorbachev coup attempt.  I remember being hopeful.

    IIRC, that hopefulness was literally beaten out of Russians during one of the early anti-Putin demonstrations.  IIRC, the government’s counterattack was vicious.

  44. 44.

    Whomever

    @trollhattan: I recently read Masha Gessen’s “The Future Is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia” (https://www.amazon.com/Future-History-Totalitarianism-Reclaimed-Russia/dp/159463453X).  Written before the Ukraine war, it talks about this, how there was sort of a drip by drip lessening of freedom.

    BTW while it’s about Russia, so Ukraine doesn’t pop up much, it does occasionally, mostly as a relatively much free-er place.  For example at one point someone ends up having to host a conference in Ukraine because they couldn’t get away with it in Russia anymore (IIRC it was about LGBTQ stuff).

  45. 45.

    Devore

    And thanks for your diligent work keeping all of us updated.   I don’t think saying that I look forward to these updates is the right way to put it.   But they provide a lot of value

  47. 47.

    Mike in NC

    Maybe Putin and his stooges lack an appreciation for military history. During WW1 and WW2 several battleships were basically vaporized with most of their crew due to improper ammunition storage or poor magazine design (e.g. three survivors from HMS Hood).

  50. 50.

    Jinchi

    @scav: Is it just me or is there something weird about the video quality?

    The people in the foreground look like they’ve been badly photoshopped over a video of an audience on a green screen.

  51. 51.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jinchi: Dunno: the twitter video is terrible, but I wrote that off to heavy compression.  Do you have a pointer to a higher-definition version of the video ?

  54. 54.

    NutmegAgain

    @WaterGirl: And yet, it’s one more thing that I blame the Russkies for–the fact I feel at all happy to learn that some hundreds of people got blown to smithereens. I don’t want to have those feels. It’s grotesque, but it’s also what war does.

  61. 61.

    Carlo Graziani

    This tidbit from today’s ISW Russian Campaign Offensive caught my eye:

    Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on January 2 that Russian forces have decreased their rate of shelling from 20–80,000 rounds per day to a maximum of 20,000 per day and are searching for Soviet 122mm and 152mm caliber ammunition stores both domestically and internationally.

    This is in the theatre that serves Bakhmut, and where Prigozhin has been screaming about MOD starving Wagner out.

  63. 63.

    Fake Irishman

    @zhena gogolia:

    The journalist Scott Shane had a wonderful book about the end of the Soviet Union called “Dismantling Utopia” with an entire chapter on the changes in Media. It was a fascinating read.

  65. 65.

    Mart

    Remember when Dem leadership sanctioned Rep. Ilhan Omar over her statements on US/Israeli Government funding versus Israeli Government actions? I can totally see McCarthy doing that to Boebert, MTG, Gaetz, Gohmert, et. al. when they work to squeeze Ukraine funding…

  66. 66.

    Geminid

    @Mart: I don’t recall Democratic leadership sanctioning Ihlan Ohmar. I remember some pushback from her peers.

    And I think Omar was talking about the reason Democrat Congress members support Israel. She attributed it to their funding. Some protested that they had good reason to support Israel besides campaign donations.

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