I had a very busy day, and busier evening – just finished helping my mom with something – so I’m going to keep this brief.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!
I have just finished a conversation with the Prime Minister of Canada, and this is the fourth international conversation today. The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, the Prime Minister of Norway. And now Justin Trudeau.
We started this year with what Ukraine needs most right now – on the eve of new mobilization processes being prepared by the terrorist state. Now is the moment when together with our partners we must strengthen our defense.
We have no doubt that the current masters of Russia will throw everything they have left and everyone they can muster to try to turn the tide of the war and at least postpone their defeat.
We have to disrupt this Russian scenario. We are preparing for this. The terrorists must lose. Any attempt at their new offensive must fail. This will be the final defeat of the terrorist state. I thank all partners who understand this.
Russia mobilizes those whom it wants to throw to death, we mobilize the civilized world. For the sake of life.
I am grateful to Canada for its unwavering defense, sanction and financial support. Today we discussed with Prime Minister Trudeau how we can further increase pressure on Russia. I feel that Canadian assistance to our defense will remain strong this year.
I thank Norway for the very powerful decisions that have already been taken and that are still being prepared. This applies to armed support as well – Norway’s role can become truly historic in the defense of Europe if we implement everything we are talking about now. This also applies to the support of our energy system. In particular, I thank Norway for its readiness to help provide Ukraine with the necessary volume of gas for this winter.
I am grateful to the UK for the fully concrete agreements reached, first of all in the defense sphere. Today, in the conversation with Prime Minister Sunak, I felt that we equally perceive the importance of this year, the prospects of this year. The fact that it is possible to achieve a pivotal advantage right now, not allowing Russia to win back on this or that front direction.
I am grateful to the Netherlands for sharing with us the same understanding of justice, of how this war should end. Today I have informed Mr. Prime Minister Rutte on the nearest intentions of the enemy, on what Russia is preparing for the winter months and the beginning of spring. I am confident that Ukraine will be heard in Europe.
And every day I will continue such diplomatic activity – both formal and informal, both public and non-public.
This morning, I held a regular meeting of the Staff. A long one. There were reports from the Commander-in-Chief on the operational situation at the front, the head of intelligence – on what to expect from the enemy in the coming weeks and months. We determine the needs of Ukraine, our defense, our energy sector in great detail. And we are working to meet each of the needs, in particular with partners.
And one more thing.
Yesterday Russian terrorists destroyed the ice arena in Druzhkivka, Donetsk region. With a missile.
This ice arena – “Altair” – started working before the war, when Donbas had a normal life before Russia came. Children trained there. There was a children’s sports school. Hockey competitions were held there. People played sports there, celebrated and just enjoyed life. Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Kostyantynivka, Bakhmut, Pokrovsk, Donetsk, Toretsk and other cities and villages of Donbas – everyone knew what kind of arena it was, and many people visited it. Last year it was used to collect and distribute humanitarian aid.
The Russian missile against Altair in Druzhkivka is another confession of the terrorist state. It is a confession of what it came to Donbas with and what we will definitely oust from there. Death will not prevail in Donbas, and we must do everything to throw out its tricolor from Donbas and other lands of Ukraine.
I thank everyone who fights and works for our victory!
I thank everyone who helps protect life!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kremenna, Bakhmut X2, and Izium:
KREMENNA AXIS /1515 UTC 3 JAN/ West of the P-66 HWY, RU forces have attempted to stage attacks at Ploschanka. Shelling continues along the line of contact, following heavy fighting near Dibrova on 1-2 JAN. FEBA assessed to be E of Dibrova. pic.twitter.com/salOqrtJdp
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 3, 2023
NOTE: This map and analysis are based on the briefings of the UKR Gen’l Staff on 2 JAN. Briefings for 3 JAN have not yet occurred. Reportage form other sources has not yet been confirmed. Updates will follow. And MANY THANKS to @commcen76 for base maps/topographic information.
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 3, 2023
BAKHMUT AXIS /2045 UTC 3 JAN/ RU forces whave staged an attack across the T-13-02 toward Krasna Hora. UKR troops were also reported in contact at Podhorodne and Bakhmutse. South of the H-32 HWY, RU forces continue attempts to register an advance in the western industrial area. pic.twitter.com/WpmJ6YSw8Q
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 3, 2023
IZIUM AXIS /1630 UTC 3 JAN/ RU has renewed a series attacks across the H-26 HWY NW of Svatove. The UKR Khartia Battalion is engaged heavily with 22nd Guard Spetsnaz Brigade in the vicinity of Kryvoshyivka. UKR UAV destroys RU ammo dump near Svatove. pic.twitter.com/UpSEtMgzQe
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 3, 2023
Here’s the video of the drone strike on the weapons depot in Russian occupied Luhansk:
🔥 💥 🔥 💥 🔥 💥
Video from the drone that wiped out the Russia 🇷🇺 weapons stockpile in occupied-Luhansk Oblast yesterday. pic.twitter.com/Sw9Yghtm4A— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) January 3, 2023
The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko has a new piece up on just how much armor Russia may have left:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is already going down in history as the biggest tank slaughter Europe has seen since World War II.
The Kremlin’s reckless and unsuccessful blitzkrieg on Kyiv resulted in the loss of over 1,000 tanks – within just a few weeks after Feb. 24.
By April, many battlefields in northern Ukraine had become tank cemeteries, with dozens of scorched machines eviscerated by Ukrainian anti-tank squads.
This is a heavy blow for Russia’s offensive component, even given its large military. Contrary to its propaganda, Russia’s infamously large stockpile of Soviet tanks is little more than a pile of scrap metal unfit to be used in battle.
However, we can not expect Russia to run critically low on tanks anytime soon.
Despite heavy losses, Russia still has enough machines to continue waging its war for years.
For Ukraine, this is yet another reason to do everything possible to avoid a protracted, multiyear war for which the Kremlin has many resources.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has demonstrated that all speculations on the end of the tank era have been somewhat premature.
Main battle tanks continue to serve their typical role: supporting the infantry, spearheading assaults, and exploiting breakthroughs, with mechanized infantry following them.
Driven by necessity, Ukraine’s military has expanded the role of tanks in combat. Due to a lack of field artillery, many Ukrainian crews practice indirect fire on targets out of the tank’s line of sight, howitzer-style.
Meanwhile, Russian forces still rely on tanks as a principal means of concentrated fire support, even during urban warfare.
Much more at the link!
Back in September, Marine veteran, doctoral candidate, and senior fellow at FPRI Rob Lee wrote a piece for War on the Rocks for why the tanks is not obsolete that dovetails nicely with Ponomarenko’s analysis:
After six months of war in Ukraine, some observers have insisted that “we are seeing the very nature of combat change” and that tanks, along with fighter jets and warships, “are being pushed into obsolescence.”
But it is too soon to write off the tank, and we should resist jumping to other sweeping conclusions about the future of warfare based on a conflict whose lessons are not yet clear. There is still much about this war that is not known from open sources, and there is good reason to think that the conditions that marked its early phases will not necessarily be relevant to future conflicts. As a result, specific weapon systems may appear to be ineffective based on how and where they are employed, not necessarily due to their inherent shortcomings.
The available data from Ukraine, as well as the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh, indicate that tanks are still critical in modern warfare and their vulnerabilities have been exaggerated. Russia’s heavy tank losses can be explained by employment mistakes, poor planning and preparation, insufficient infantry support, and Ukrainian artillery. The use of Javelins and other light anti-tank systems in Ukraine has not demonstrated that the tank is obsolete any more than the Sagger anti-tank guided missile did in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, as discussed by David Johnson in these pages.
Three key issues explain Russia’s tank losses: lack of warning and preparation, poor strategy that exacerbated logistics issues, and insufficient infantry to protect them. Tanks are among the most logistics-intensive pieces of equipment. They require routine maintenance, spare parts, and substantial fuel to keep them operational. Because of these requirements, logistics planning is more important for tank battalions and regiments than nearly any other type of military unit, but Russia’s disorganized invasion exacerbated these logistical challenges. Russia’s operation was marked by extreme efforts at compartmentalization and secrecy, with most soldiers finding out that they were going to war only a few hours before the invasion. As a result, commanders and logisticians were given insufficient warning to plan and prepare. Tank units did not have enough time to schedule proper maintenance or to procure sufficient spare parts, fuel, and other items necessary for a conventional war that would involve long-distance movements.
Moreover, Russia’s plan involved too many axes of advance, many of which were not mutually supporting, and Russian Ground Forces units were tasked with advancing at an extremely rapid rate. As a result, Russian forces often moved beyond artillery, electronic warfare, and air defense coverage, further exacerbating logistics issues. The rapid advance also meant that Russia had longer and more exposed supply lines, and its logistics convoys were not prepared to handle ambushes from territorial defense forces. It is not surprising that tank units performed comparatively poorly at the beginning of the war, since they require greater preparation and planning than lighter units.
Logistics problems were also evident in the type of tanks Russia lost at the beginning of the war. Most of Russia’s tank force is composed of T-72 or T-90 variants, which use diesel engines. However, Russia still has a large number of T-80 variants in service as well, often based in extremely cold regions where their gas turbine engines are easier to operate than diesel engines. A higher percentage of T-80 tanks were abandoned than T-72 or T-90 variants. Of the 85 T-80U-series tanks that Russia lost, according to Oryx’s data, 50 (59 percent) were abandoned or captured. Of the 34 T-80BVM tanks that were lost, 19 (56 percent) were abandoned or captured. Compared to the more numerous T-72 and T-90 tanks in Russian service, T-80 tanks have higher fuel consumption and use a different type of fuel. The higher percentage of T-80 losses suggests that fuel was a critical factor in their abandonment or capture.
Of the tanks that were damaged or destroyed, many of them were lost because Russia’s initial invasion was not conducted as a combined-arms operation, and it lacked sufficient infantry to support its tank units. This is another reason why Russia lost so many tanks during the first few weeks but far fewer after the first phase. More than half of the Russian tank losses recorded by Oryx occurred in the first 50 days of the war, which is also when the first articles were being published questioning the value of tanks. One of the well-known weaknesses of tanks is that they require infantry to protect them from opposing infantry forces with anti-tank weapons, particularly in urban terrain. Russia chose to reduce the strength of motorized rifle battalions on BMP Infantry Fighting Vehicles from 460 to 345 servicemen, and many of the battalions that invaded Ukraine were only at two-thirds to three-quarters strength. In practice, this meant that Russian motorized rifle units lacked sufficient dismounts for fighting in urban terrain. Russia also chose to reduce the motorized rifle battalion in each tank regiment to a single company, which was clearly insufficient to support the two battalion tactical groups that each tank regiment should be able to generate. Thus, it is no surprise that Ukraine had success in targeting Russian tanks with anti-tank teams. With sufficient infantry support and unmanned systems and ground reconnaissance to locate anti-tank teams, Russia’s tank fleet would have fared much better.
Despite their effectiveness, modern anti-tank guided missiles were not the primary killers of Russian tanks. According to an adviser to Ukraine’s most senior military officer: “[A]nti-tank missiles slowed the Russians down [during the advance towards Kyiv], but what killed them was our artillery. That was what broke their units.” Indeed, countless videos posted by the Ukrainian military have confirmed this, including those showing the ill-fated offensive by Russia’s 6th Tank Regiment in Brovary in mid-March. In addition to artillery, many Russian tanks were destroyed or disabled by Soviet-era systems, such as TM-62 anti-tank mines. Javelins, next generation light anti-tank weapons, and Ukrainian-made Stugna-P anti-tank systems have been effective, but they are just one component of Ukraine’s anti-tank efforts. Indeed, they likely destroyed a relatively smaller share of Russia’s tanks during its offensive in the Donbas, where Russia conducted a more coherent combined-arms operation. It is also important to note that public sources may not provide a representative view of how Russian tanks were damaged. Russian tanks struck by Stugna-P or Javelins are much more likely to be filmed and uploaded to social media than tanks damaged by mines, which may not be recorded as frequently. Of course, artillery battalions are not cheap, so the available evidence regarding tank losses in Ukraine does not particularly support the argument that we are seeing a “swing in favor of smaller and cheaper defensive weapons.” Ukraine has also suffered heavy tank losses, losing 244 tanks as documented by Oryx, of which 128 were destroyed. It does not appear most of these losses were from anti-tank guided missiles either.
For all these reasons, we should be cautious about drawing broader lessons from the performance of Russian tanks and other weapons during February and March. There is little risk that NATO militaries, or even China, would ever launch an offensive war without conducting a combined-arms operation. If anything, the early stages of the war simply confirm key components of U.S. military doctrine such as unity of command, mass, decentralized execution, combined arms, mission-type orders, and proper preparation.
Much, much more at the link!
Here’s something else from Illia Ponomarenko:
Hey!
Please make sure to check this documentary when you have time. The story follows a unique rescue mission carried out by the Ukrainian military during the Battle of Izium.
The film’s creators are also fundraising to buy UAVs.https://t.co/3TxvPp88DG— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 3, 2023
Here’s the description posted under the video:
This is the most suspenseful documentary film you’ve ever seen. It was made in 2022 by famous Ukrainian director Lubomir Levitski, tells about the unique rescue operation with drones which was carried out by the Ukrainian military during the brutal battles near Izyum. Real participants of that operation speak their story to the camera, so that the whole world would learn about the incredible feat and creative approach of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in rescuing civilians. The real footage taken by drones during this operation was handed over to Lubomir by the military of the 93rd Brigade “Holodny Yar”. Thirty minutes of intense real-time rescue operation is impossible to forget. The director managed to combine documentary with an incredibly interesting artistic approach in telling this story. E
VERY DONATION IS A NEW PURCHASED DRONE. EVERY NEW DRONE IS ANOTHER SAVED LIFE.
Details for your voluntary donation are below: https://glory.foundation/en/bank-deta…
We have another update for you weather aficionados. This one from the BBC:
Temperatures for January have reached an all-time high in a number of nations across Europe.
National records have fallen in eight countries – and regional records in another three.
Warsaw, Poland, saw 18.9C (66F) on Sunday while Bilbao, Spain, was 25.1C – more than 10C above average.
The mild European weather comes as North America faces more severe storms, days after a deadly winter cold snap left more than 60 dead.
Heavy snow and freezing rain have been forecast for parts of the northern Midwest while severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are expected in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana.
But on the European side of the Atlantic, the weather has been balmy for many places at the start of the year.
Temperatures in the Netherlands, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Poland, Denmark and Belarus broke national records.
Station records were broken in Germany, France and Ukraine.
The temperature recorded in Warsaw on 1 January was 4C higher than the previous record for the month, and Belarus’ record high was 16.4C, some 4.5C above the previous record.
In Spain, New Year’s Day temperatures in Bilbao were equivalent to the average in July, and parts of Catalonia including Barcelona are subject to restrictions on water use.
Records are broken all the time, but it is unusual for the difference to be more than a few 10ths of a degree.
In Switzerland, temperatures hit 20C, and the warm weather has affected ski resorts across the Alps which have seen a snow shortage.
It’s not all warm in Europe, though – colder temperatures and snow are forecast in parts of Scandinavia and Moscow is expected to drop to -20C by the weekend.
Obligatory!
We try not to judge…
Much more at the link.
This is important because it strikes a major blow to Putin’s strategy to use restrictions on natural gas supply to influence the EU states, including the NATO states in Europe, to stop supporting Ukraine or risk freezing to death because they cannot afford to source natural gas to keep the heat on.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns З запізненням викладаю свій 2022 у 60 фото 🫶🏻
The caption machine translates as:
Belatedly posting my 2022 in 60 photos
Open thread!
oldster
Even the Kremlin has now acknowledged that several hundred mobiks were killed in the dorm that got Himarsed. They’re saying over 300, and given that they *always* lie, I think we can figure it’s closer to 500.
Let’s hope it has an even greater dampening effect on ruscian morale.
Alison Rose
Even Mother Nature is on Ukraine’s side. Suck it, putin.
I liked the pointedness of this line: “I thank all partners who understand this.” Very glad to see all the continued support. When I was seeing the photos from the calls in my FB feed, I was like, Zelenskyy’s voice is gonna be ten times as raspy as it already is by the time this shit is done and dusted.
Also too, this dog is ready to thrash some MFers.
Thank you as always, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
The unseasonably warm winter in Europe is certainly cutting into Putin’s leverage w/ natural gas this year. However, it is yet another sign of the accelerating AGW, that will wreak ever greater havoc on all parts of the world, creating more disruption, dislocation & chaos than Putin ever could manage.
Part of Climate Change is more extreme weather in all seasons, including the snow storm in Texas in 2021, extreme drought in Europe & China this summer, & the extreme winter storm in Upstate New York last week.
I have decidedly mixed feelings about Europe’s warm winter.
wombat probabilty cloud
Thank you, Adam, as always.
Adam L Silverman
@wombat probabilty cloud: You’re most welcome.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you Adam, for these invaluable updates.
Happy New Year! Slava Ukraini!
Carlo Graziani
The warm weather cuts both ways. It prevented the UA from taking advantage of its interior lines of communication, after operations in Kherson were finished and before the Russians could rush forces north to the Svatove-Kreminna area, where a nice, iced-over countryside could have made for a lot of trouble for the unprepared Russians. Instead, there was a sea of mud.
But there’s no use in whining, one never catches all the breaks, the UA had a spectacular year. For what it’s worth, it should be dropping to a high of 12 F by this Saturday in Luhansk oblast, and stay below freezing all week. It should change the fighting, but not as much as it would have a month ago.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: +1
The big, unseasonable, temperature swings are very bad news. It’s 64F (17.8C) here in NoVA right now. It was 7F (-13.9C) about 10 days ago.
Fingers crossed for Ukraine, and for the folks in California.
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@Another Scott: The high in Chicago was 46F (8C) today. Absurd for January. A week ago it was 0 F (-18C), also absurd.
Climate change is not “warming”. It is instability.
patrick II
How is the warm weather affecting Ukraine’s winter offensive? It has been widely speculated that the UKR was planning an offensive once the ground was frozen and mobile units could move again over less muddy ground. Was that just speculation? Is the warm weather happening in Ukraine and is it affecting the war directly?
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I thought -20 C was par for the course for the Windy City in winter.
Such thermal shock will rapidly increase the wear in physical infrastructure, as well, especially road surfaces.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@YY_Sima Qian:
My parents, early 60s, who are by no means climate change denialists, don’t think anything of these extreme temperature swings.
“Oh, there were times in the 70s and 80s where it was warm in the winter and we didn’t get snow.”
It’s a little frustrating. I get the feeling a lot of people just think of this stuff in terms of “Oh, goody, it’s 60F in January! We’re having a heat wave!”
Carlo Graziani
@patrick II: If the ground had been frozen in early December, there would have been opportunities created by the fact that the Ukrainians can exploit their interior communication lines, whereas the Russians have to go around the periphery—a situation that the UA has already exploited more than once to its advantage this year. I had a small pile of chips on the Svatove-Kreminna area as being prepared for exploitation, but that was just a guess. They could have hit in a lot of different places, taking it off the roads, going around the Russians before they had time to set up real defenses, while they were still redeploying from Kherson.
But now it’s a bit different. The Russians have taken a breath, have dug in, have mobliks planted up front. For the past month there’s been a slugging match in the mud going on in Luhansk, as the UA keeps the pressure on in an effort not to leave the initiative to the Russians.
Objectively it appears that the UA effort up in the Svatove-Kreminna area is at least progressing better than the obviously stalled Russian efforts at Bakhmut and at Donetsk City (which is to say, it’s making some progress, rather than none). I would imagine that as the ground freezes the tactical picture in this area will change in some way, as the fighting will move off the roads, and should make Russian defensive positions less effective. On the other hand, I would assume that the Russians are preparing for this, so I wouldn’t speculate as to the extent of the change.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Oh, hell no. That’ more like Minnesota. Here we might get -12C — -8C (10F — 20F), but idiots who don’t know how to dress properly expose skin to the wind, and then the heat can be as if the effective temperature were a great deal colder.
As to damage to infrastructure, we are resigned to our traditional Spring “Pothole Season”, when all the infiltrated water in the road concrete starts freezing, thawing, freezing, thawing, etc., and suddenly holes the size of SUVs can appear in major roadways…
NutmegAgain
I’ll just note that yes, my kid & her SO keep their flat at 18 deg (rest of the world degrees — in the US it’s ~67) during the day, and no heat at night. They’re in NW Germany, and those heat settings are the recommended ones from the government. And, yaknow, it’s Germany so… they follow the rules! We always compare weather however, and it’s been really odd that their weather and mine here in CT have tracked pretty closely for quite a while. That was not true when she first moved to Germany, ~10 years ago. The have so damned much less daylight though. And honestly, it’s easy to get used to cold weather, but 3-5 hours of weak sunlight for months at a time? That sucks. I really feel for the people in Ukraine w/r/t electricity loss
eta: I love winter, being a northern creature. It’s so balmy here in CT; I have yet to wear my warmest boots & coat and it’s going on 4 years I’ve lived here!
Steeplejack
@oldster:
Answer on House metal detectors.
Kent
I think the more accurate assessment regarding tanks is that they are obsolete and have been since WW2 if one side has air supremacy. Look what happened to the Germans in the Falaise pocket in Normandy when the allies had air supremacy. It was basically an open-season turkey shoot on tanks.
In Ukraine where neither side owns the air, tanks seem to be more useful. However if NATO air forces got involved it would once again be a complete turkey shoot.
Adam L Silverman
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: You’re most welcome.
Chetan Murthy
@NutmegAgain: When I moved to Ithaca, NY in 1986 for grad school, people told me the winters were brutal: single-digit F cold, that I needed Sorel felt-lined boots, etc, etc. I got all the stuff. And proceeded to not use it for 5yr. I left for Europe for 3yr, and when I got back, spent a semester in Ithaca again (1994). This time I walked around in Birkenstocks and tube socks the entire winter. Up and down the hill to campus from town, in Birkies.
Yeah: Northeastern winters have really softened-up these last 40 years.
Kent
Mobility might be reduced, but I suspect Ukrainians without power or heat are suffering less from Russia’s attempts to freeze out the civilian population. And Russia is earning many billions less dollars on the international oil and gas markets since prices have plummeted. So there is always a flip side.
NutmegAgain
@Chetan Murthy: Ah, Ithaca… charming town; you might say gorges! My most hair raising flight story involves flying out the Ithaca from Boston on a 10 seater. But it’s really true about the weather changes. I moved up northward in ’67-68 (with my family) and that year there was a blizzard that shut down Rt128, the belt highway around Boston. Several of our new neighbors skied home from cars stuck on the highway. Coming from NY (city) I thought this idea of snow days for a week + was terrific. By the 2000s when my kid was finishing high school, I can’t think she’d had a snow day for years.
West of the Cascades
@NutmegAgain: I lived in Ithaca from 1995 to 2001 … but having grown up in Buffalo, Ithaca winters seemed mild and springlike.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani: I went to college in Chicago (’79-’83). The coldest I’ve ever been was walking to class at -20F (-28.9C). Feeling the hair in my nose freeze was something I won’t forget.
There was a story in the newspaper around that time about some guy from Minnesota who worked in The Loop who would walk around in short sleeves in such weather…
People are strange.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy:
@NutmegAgain:
Spent 5 years in Ithaca, NY in the late 90s for undergrad & grad school. The winters were pretty miserable, more for the perpetually grey overcast than actually low temperatures or snow. That possibly contributes to Cornell Univ.’s infamously high suicide rate. The other seasons, however, are gorgeous!
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Scott: Meh, ’82-86 in Appleton, WI, those temps barely would have convinced me to put on a pair of socks.
🐾BillinGlendaleCA
@Another Scott: Three weeks ago, when I shot a star trail for 2 hours, I noticed frost on the lens hood on my camera and on my tripod when I finished shooting. It was 14F.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kent: You seldom have close air support everywhere even when you have almost total air superiority. And where you don’t, you don’t want to be in an infantry unit up against a combined arms force. The demise of the tank is not yet imminent.
NutmegAgain
@West of the Cascades: My congratulations! Much of my dad’s family wound up in Buffalo, so we made the trek for holidays now and then. Serious weather~
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: This is turning into the Four Yorkshiremen Sketch.
way2blue
@Another Scott:
Agreed. Here in coastal Northern California we’re seeing a series of strong rain storms. Which is great ’cause we desperately need water. But. It’s coming all at once like turning on a faucet. And folks living in the Santa Cruz Mountains where the CZU wildfire swept through in 2020 are on alert for mudslides. More intense weather over narrower time interval is the new normal.
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani: I am not letting these New Yorkers and (ptui) Chicagoans front.
ETA: If someone wants to pull Macalester, St. Olaf, or Bemidji State out, I’ll listen.
🐾BillinGlendaleCA
@way2blue: I think firehose would be more apt than faucet.
Kent
There is a reason the US Marines got rid of all of their tanks. All of them. I don’t think they are completely stupid
Of course the difference between the US Marines and Ukraine is that the US Marines are designed to fight distant highly mobile wars over water while Ukraine is fighting at home.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kent:
What is the job of the marines? Tanks aren’t particularly amphibious. FWIW army light divisions don’t have tanks either. Because they are light divisions.
Anotherlurker
@West of the Cascades: For an authentically brutal winter, please try a winter in Oswego. Cold weather + lake effect snow.
I went to school in Binghamton. The weather could be nasty, but nothing like Buffalo or Oswego or Watertown or Plattsburg.
Anotherlurker
@YY_Sima Qian: I have heard the term “gorging out” referred to the allegedly hit suicide rate in Ithaca.
Chetan Murthy
YY_Sima Qian
@Anotherlurker: I think the suicide issue is specific to Cornell Univ. Neither Ithaca College or the town itself has issues w/ suicides.
YY_Sima Qian
@Anotherlurker: Driving north from Ithaca or Corning north toward Waterloo, Rochester or even Syracuse, the sudden change from no snow on the ground to 2 ft of accumulation was always surprising.
HeartlandLiberal
Average daily highs in central Indiana are in mid 30s F. The past five days, we have had temps in upper 50s F and yesterday high was in low 60s F.
The weather is out of whack. Just what was predicted in modeling global warming. By SCIENTISTS.
Uncle Cosmo
Just FTR, temperature in uptown Baltimore at 12:50 PM is 61ºF. Carry on.
lowtechcyclist
From the Kyiv Independent, some good news:
Jay
@Kent:
https://tanks-encyclopedia.com/articles/tactics/tank-busting-ww2.php