The magnitude of the dissent against McCarthy — 20 defectors — masks that it only takes a few to hold it up indefinitely. Norman and four of his friends are enough.
75 percent of the Never Kevins could switch their votes to him tomorrow and it still wouldn't be enough. https://t.co/QGZX7af9kH
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) January 5, 2023
Tina Nguyen, at Puck, “McCarthy’s Chronicle of a Death Foretold”:
In the weeks leading up to January 3rd, the first day of the new Congress, a small clique of far right hardliners within the House Freedom Caucus—the majority of them freshmen, backbenchers, and members still waiting to be sworn in—were quietly, furiously reading up on the chamber’s arcane rules. They took meetings with the Office of the Parliamentarian, peppering the House’s resident expert with questions about which procedures to abide by on the floor, past precedents to thwart a speakership election, and what sort of motions they could call to grind Kevin McCarthy’s political future into dust. “I guarantee you,” a strategist close to their efforts told me, “that each of those 20 knows vastly more about House procedure than your typical non-leadership, middle-of-the-road member of the Republican conference.”…
On January 3rd, this small, tight-knit posse burst from the shadows. I was standing in a hallway in a Congressional office building, attending a Republican member’s open house, when several Republican lobbyists gasped that Bishop, a congressman entering his second term had, unexpectedly, just voted “no” on McCarthy. By the end of the first round, not one, not ten, but 19 Republicans had voted against McCarthy, fueled by the last-minute addition of several members who were pissed off by McCarthy’s arrogant declaration that morning that he’d “earned” the Speaker title. By the third round of voting on Tuesday, as the anti-Kevin coalition expanded to 20, it was clear that the opposition was driven by more than just political demands. “Borrowing language from the Pro-McCarthy wing, yes, this is not for fame or notoriety, it’s a holy war,” a conservative comms operative familiar with the thinking of the 20 told me. “It’s ideological and principle based objections. It’s about distrusting status quo conservatives.”
The curricula vitae of the group that Don Bacon termed the “Taliban Twenty” are diverse, both politically and biographically: Anna Paulina Luna is a St. Petersburg-based MAGA influencer, Keith Self is a relative moderate (by MAGA terms) from suburban Dallas, Eli Crane is a former Shark Tank entrepreneur who has barely tweeted, the lingua franca of the movement. But the unified opposition of these newcomers, most of whom were elected after 2018, can be subdivided into three broad categories. There are the procedural wonks, who are clamoring for rule changes and reforms to the committee process, like Chip Roy; the MAGA sadists who would simply like to make McCarthy ice fish naked in a Siberian forest in mid-January, like Gaetz; and a larger group who share in the suspicion that McCarthy has no true ideological core…
Selections from a *highly* recommended thread:
— MC Frontalot (@mc_frontalot) January 5, 2023
— MC Frontalot (@mc_frontalot) January 5, 2023
— MC Frontalot (@mc_frontalot) January 5, 2023
— MC Frontalot (@mc_frontalot) January 5, 2023
— MC Frontalot (@mc_frontalot) January 5, 2023
They’ve said something like this every day for weeks. And the press keeps repeating it. https://t.co/wtIx2xPucK
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) January 5, 2023
PBS correspondent:
At this moment, McCarthy has 4 option:
1. Flip enough hold outs to win. (Basically 17 of 21).
2. Work with Democrats to get to 218. Give them good committee ratios, other powers.
3. Move to a plurality threshold.
4. Drop out.1/
— Lisa Desjardins (@LisaDNews) January 5, 2023
So that leaves
4. Drop out.
— Lisa Desjardins (@LisaDNews) January 5, 2023
War for Ukraine Day 315: Bradleys!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
kind of on-topic, since it’s about Congress and Republican stupidity
Erin Burnett is 46, Congressman Nehls is 54, though I think she looks younger and he looks older, and the “Clinton News Network” adds twenty years
CaseyL
I’ve come around to the idea that this is Insurrection Part 2.
The House can do no business, and the Senate can do no business that must originate in the House.
Legislation, and a host of non-legislative work, can’t start.
Much easier than attempting an armed rebellion. Just keep voting No to a Speaker.
Splitting Image
Gotta say I’m impressed with the Democratic caucus. No defections, no missed votes. It looks like Nancy’s trained her replacements very well.
What is there to say about the Republicans? They’ve been bringing this on for decades. All of them are life-long dogs-in-the-manger with no principles and no purpose. The party stands for nothing, so there is nothing to unite them except keeping Jeffries out of the Speaker chair, and they all spit on the very idea of compromise. McCarthy can’t offer the holdouts anything and they are prouder of themselves the longer they hold out.
Scout211
Love the National Lampoon’s
high school yearbookTaliban Twenty year book issue.Josie
It looks to me like a political disaster is already in motion for McCarthy, so he is free to choose from options 2, 3, and 4.
Scout211
@CaseyL: I have read that some people are calling it a shadow shutdown. A shutdown is what they want and essentially this does the same thing, except that they cannot conduct any important business, like Hunter Biden hearings.
Baud
I think people trying to game this out in week 1 is kind of dumb. If everything had gone smoothly, the House wouldn’t have done anything until late January at the earliest (except issue subpoenas.). Other than the daily embarrassment, there’s no pressure on anyone to capitulate yet.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Here’s Pete Buttigieg being good at being on Fox News, which I’ve seen before, I can’t remember the last time I saw someone communicate anger so subtly yet clearly.
UncleEbeneezer
CaseyL
@UncleEbeneezer:
The standard for evidence in a civil suit is “preponderance” rather than “beyond a reasonable doubt.” This should be interesting!
PaulB
So, gaming this out a bit (sorry, Baud): I think McCarthy desperately needs a few votes shifting in his direction tomorrow. If nobody budges, I don’t see how he survives, particularly after all of the breathless hype about the deal on the table (and it’s *written*!!! See, it’s real!!!).
17 votes shift in his direction? He’s the next Speaker.
Anything in between, he limps along for another few votes. The closer to zero the number of shifting votes is, the less likely it is that he will eventually win.
I do agree with Baud that, so far, the pressure isn’t really there, absent some new emergency.
sanjeevs
Donald Trump’s Troubles Mount as Special Counsel Gets New Jan. 6 Evidence – Bloomberg
20 investigators for the Jan 6 investigation.
If this is true it’s no wonder that no Republican officials have been indicted after two years.
moonbat
Dragged up from the mostly dead thread below:
How many suspect that the ultimate prize they are looking for is freedom from prosecution? Gaetz is a sex trafficker. And plenty of the 20 were involved in the insurrection. Is this freak show just a symptom of the terror they feel that there is no big daddy Trump to pardon them with the special prosecutor come calling?
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
He’s so good.
SpaceUnit
I’m curious how this circus is playing on Fox News.
Not curious enough to actually watch it, of course. I’m not a madman.
PaulB
They can’t get that from McCarthy, and Biden won’t give it to them. The most that McCarthy can offer, which he has already promised, is to gut the Congressional Ethics Office.
Roger Moore
Yes and no. It takes only a handful to gum stuff up, but the fewer people in the gang the smaller the margin of error. If they’re down to the bare minimum and one of those can’t make it to the floor- they get sick, have family business they need to attend to, or whatever- they can’t block the election anymore. If it’s 20, you probably can’t wait them out. If it’s only 5 or 6, you probably can.
Alison Rose
LOL, he calls Boebert a “violently delirious mountain yokel” and that’s 110% accurate.
Baud
@Roger Moore:
It’s also important to keep in mind that Republicans are lazy. This might have been over by now if they didn’t keep adjourning at dusk.
PaulB
I’m with you on not watching the channel, but the website has it front-and-center, and the reports there are basically in line with what I read on CNN. So, from a strictly news standpoint, they seem to be handling this reasonably.
What I’m not going to do is look for their op-eds. That’s a cesspool I don’t care to dive into.
Wyatt Salamanca
McCarthy in press gaggle just aired on CNN: “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish”
He’s still in total denial.
UncleEbeneezer
@sanjeevs: DOJ was never going to indict any Big Fish (like GOP elected officials) before doing a full reading of all the transcripts from the 1/6 Committee. Good news is that apparently Garland has already said that he’s going to let Smith make the call on indictments. And Smith’s reputation is that he does NOT shy away from prosecuting high-ranking officials.
David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️
… and I say Kaos today, Kaos tomorrow, Kaos forever!
SpaceUnit
@PaulB:
Then they’ve no clue as to how to spin this mess. Republicans in disarray indeed.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: They might be reverse-vampires.
sdhays
@Baud: They are lazy, but adjourning isn’t necessarily a manifestation of their laziness. In fact, it’s just a waste of everyone’s time to keep having these pointless votes. The Republican leadership should be able to figure out if they have the votes or not before a session starts, and if they don’t, they should let everyone else go about their business while they negotiate.
The reason they don’t is because the leadership is too lazy and incompetent to count themselves (and that’s been the case for years) and they’ve gotten used to using public votes to pressure recalcitrant members while voting continues (goes back to the W years). Now, they don’t know what to do because there’s no real pressure, and too many of their targets just don’t give a shit about anything.
That’s what happens when you let your party turn into a nihilistic death cult.
sanjeevs
@UncleEbeneezer: Mueller and Fitzgerald had reputations as fearless too. Let’s see if Smith is any better.
I’m more concerned that they only have 20 or so investigators. This was the pattern of the previous Trump counterintelligence investigation – ludicrously underresourced per Peter Strzok’s book.
moonbat
@PaulB: So the follow ups are 1) Are they smart enough to know that? and 2) is it really Biden they want concessions from?
Because, as has already been pointed out, they are doing a de facto shutdown of the government right now.
David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️
@Omnes Omnibus:
Abbott and Costello meet
The WolfmanThe MAGAsGoku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@CaseyL:
Yeah, but then they can’t have Hunter Biden hearings, investigate Fauci, etc
phdesmond
@CaseyL:
i had that same sense — insurrection part two.
zhena gogolia
@Wyatt Salamanca: Sung by Tommy Tune in Seesaw!
Cameron
@David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️: I know who Greg Abbott is, but I’m not familiar with this Costello person.
Roger Moore
@Baud:
They need to go out at night to feed on the blood of the living.
Amir Khalid
A trés minor point. Ms Cheryl Johnson has done an admirable job wrangling the House in the ongoing absence of a Speaker. The media persists in referring to her as “House clerk”, as though she were running a cash register at Aldi’s. I understand that her actual job title is Clerk of the House — the House’s ranking administrative post, to which she was appointed by Speaker Pelosi.
CaseyL
Anyone see Cole’s Tweet?
He’d be a legend, I tells ya! A LEGEND!
Chetan Murthy
This is what a well-rounded education is for: “McCarthy’s Chronicle of a Death Foretold” Huzzah! Gabriel Garcia Marquez represent
ETA: for the inevitable piece on TFG ineffectually tweeting his demands, she could use “The Shitgibbon in his
LabyrinthSewer System”Geminid
I am so glad my county was moved from Bob Good’s district to Abigail Spanberger’s. That guy makes my skin crawl.
MattF
So… eleven votes and WaPo says there have been negotiations that might or might not have any effect on anything and we won’t actually know anything until tomorrow maybe or maybe not.
ETA: Possibly. Or possibly not.
Splitting Image
@Cameron:
He was a catcher for the New York Yankees.
Geminid
@moonbat: The Executive and Judicial Branches are still operating, and so is the Senate. Those idiots are just shutting themselves down.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@MattF:
It’s Groundhog Day!
lgerard
In other news
MattF
@Splitting Image: But whatever you do, don’t mention Niagara Falls.
ETA: Slowly I turned, step by step…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KpsUlvzbkk
kalakal
5. Find a strange woman lying in a pond
geg6
@lgerard:
Tell me more. The FSM does not love me this much.
PaulB
@moonbat: No, they want concessions from Kevin, but Kevin can’t give them what you have mentioned. And yes, they know that. It’s not on the table, nor is there any sign that it’s a goal.
As for the shutdown, you are technically correct, but nothing was supposed to happen for at least another week, so the only effect of the impasse, for now, is to embarrass McCarthy and House Republicans. If we head into February and nothing has changed, that’s when things get a little more interesting.
For the short term, the only things affected are Republican priorities like subpoenas, investigations, impeachment, and fruitless and pointless culture war legislation. For now, there’s no real reason to not sit back and enjoy the show.
brendancalling
@CaseyL: I’ve been saying the same.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@lgerard:
Woah, that’s pretty awful
Splitting Image
@kalakal:
Can’t they just throw in one of their own?
Omnes Omnibus
@sanjeevs: Oh ffs.
Jackie
@PaulB: Let’s see when President Biden is invited to give his State of the Union – which requires an invite by Speaker of the House.
MattF
@kalakal: Does she have a sword?
eclare
@Jackie: I had forgotten that.
sab
@Geminid: If this is how they treat staff (unpaid while they grandstand) , who would ever want to work for them when things get up and running again?
Steve in the ATL
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: “Clinton News Network” is pathetic. Like my sister still using the term “libtard”. Grow up, you idiots. And leave the bubble every now and again—there’s a whole big world out there.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Geminid:
This. The longer this goes on, the more time they will never get back for Benganzi 2: Electric Boogaloo. Right now, there’s no pressure
Immanentize
@MattF:
Susquehanna Hats?
SUSQUEHANNA HATS?!
moonbat
@PaulB: I’m not suggesting that a bargain can or should be made. I’m just commenting that this blatant stupidity also smells somewhat of the sweat of desperation. I think as soon as Garland appointed a special prosecutor and took the Jan. 6 investigation out of his hands and technically the House’s ability to starve it of money, these guys started thinking that there might actually be consequences for their actions and are shaken enough by the prospect that they are going full hostage taking terrorist from the get-go. Then when they get subpoenaed and possibly indicted that it will look like political retaliation for this mess.
Immanentize
@Splitting Image: Teddy Kennedy tried that. Didn’t help him.
HumboldtBlue
@kalakal:
Earlier today, my home girl’s brother, who drives a trash truck, was horrified when he emptied his load only to see the body of a dead woman come rolling out. Needless to say, he was freaked out for a bit.
mrmoshpotato
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Hillary Clinton is going to live in these idiots’ heads forever, even after she shuffles off this mortal coil, because that’s how these idiots want it.
Such idiots.
Immanentize
@HumboldtBlue: Do they live in Twin Peaks? Was she wrapped in plastic?
Geminid
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): In football terms, a “safety valve” pass to Scalise was the option if McCarthy was going to be sacked. That could still get the first down. But things may have spun out of control and Gaetz and company might tackle Scalise in the Republican end zone for a safety.
Then the Republicans would lose points and give up possession too, just three minutes into the first quarter.
Amir Khalid
I’m watching an MSNBC clip on YouTube: the Guy in Khakis is doing his horse-race coverage thing, full of vacuous speculation about Kevin peeling away members of the group of 20 with some magic list of new concessions.
I can see from my side of the planet that this is not going to happen. Kevin, as I’ve said before, is their hostage; as long as they can keep exacting a ransom from him, they will not release him. And when they have all the ransom they can get, they will still want to ensure he never becomes Speaker. Nothing he can do will win them over.
HumboldtBlue
@Immanentize:
No, and sadly, she was immediately identified by police which leads me to believe she was one who spent a lot of time on the streets. We have a lot of homeless and indigent.
mrmoshpotato
I’ve been out and about. Have the Rethuglicans stopped being idiots for the night, or are we approaching failed vote 8 bazillion for Loser McCarthy?
Immanentize
@HumboldtBlue: That is very sad. Someone recently pointed out that shelter/housing and enough food are two of the most critical basic human needs. But instead of spending our collective wealth on that, we spend it on police to regulate people who are too poor to get housing or food.
Amir Khalid
@Jackie:
If he had to, Biden could always submit a written SOTU report to Congress and post it on the White House website.
Geminid
@Amir Khalid: That’s how they used to do it, back in the early 19th century.
Chetan Murthy
@moonbat: @PaulB: I personally believe that these never-Kev-er MAGAts are doing this to force the rest of their caucus to bend to their will. They rightly believe that the rest of the caucus *might* compromise with the Dems for various priorities, and they want to stop that *completely*. They want to force the caucus to take the hardest-right position — to join the “Freedom Caucus” in every sense possible.
And the idea is, by taking McCarthy’s scalp, they’re putting everybody else on notice that they’re next, so they’d better fall in line.
It’s ideological cleansing.
prostratedragon
@MattF:
Person I would most like to see do that routine: Humphrey Bogart.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
And then deliver it from the White House. It’s one of my least favorite political rituals (if I never see another fucking turkey pardoned….), so I’d be good with it. Deprive any budding Joe Wilsons the chance to heckle or put on a show
Amir Khalid
@Geminid:
The White House had a website in the 19th century? Wow.
HumboldtBlue
@Immanentize:
Very sad. Missouri just criminalized homelessness, making it illegal to sleep on any public property anywhere.
Jackie
@Amir Khalid: True. Better yet, read it aloud sitting in front of the Oval Office fireplace. A fireside chat of sorts 😁
Immanentize
@HumboldtBlue: I saw that and remembered this:
– Anatole France (1894)
David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️
@Amir Khalid:
Who knew Al Gore was so old?
kalakal
@HumboldtBlue: That’s terrible. The poor woman, what a sad end of a life.
And for the truck driver, that’s going to haunt him.
Omnes Omnibus
@Immanentize: Too Much Joy?
HumboldtBlue
@Immanentize:
That nails it.
@kalakal:
Terribly sad.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: I think you’re right.
But I think these yahoos don’t understand that they actually have a weak hand. Sure, they’ll get Kevin’s head – probably – but they’re not going to get 200 of their colleagues to give up everything they’ve worked for to swear allegiance to Q and TFG and MAGA and all the rest.
(groucho-roll-eyes.gif)
Politicians want to get re-elected above all else. Signing up with the Tantrum Taliban Twenty isn’t what the 200 are going to do if it doesn’t help them get re-elected. And it won’t.
We’ll see!
Cheers,
Scott.
Steve in the ATL
@Immanentize: I thought of exactly the same thing. It’s like I share a mind with Bernice!
kalakal
One effect of not having an operational House is that all those GQP traitors who’ve been boasting about defunding all investigations into TFG, Jan 6th & their part in it have a choice, continue the performative jackassery and let them investigations roll or vote for Kev the Spineless. Mortons Fork for MAGAts
kalakal
@MattF: A scimitar
Turgidson
This isn’t complicated. They’re nihilistic, narcissistic assholes with no ideology other than owning the libs. Claiming they have more sophisticated motives than that gives them 100000% more credit than they deserve.
this has been funny mostly because there are few people in the world who deserve this humiliation more than My Kevin, one of the biggest charlatans to besmirch our political lives in recent memory (and that’s…..saying something).
I mean, I’m really starting to think this will end with Democrats saving the world (again), though how that ends up looking, not sure. They better at least get a firm “no debt ceiling bullshit” promise for their troubles.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott:
I must demur. To quote Sam Rayburn: “Any jackass can kick down a barn but it takes a good carpenter to build one.” These guys are going to hold the GrOPer caucus to ransom, if necessary over-and-over, to accomplish their will. And since they have well in excess of 5 members, they can do it, right? That’s part of the point of making the threshold for a motion to vacate be one member: so that each and every one of them can be a terrorist.
I think it’s going to work, and that by the time 2025 rolls around, if the Dems haven’t taken back the House, bad shit is gonna transpire. Or at least, they’re gonna try to make bad shit happen. B/c by then, the entire GrOPer caucus will be onboard with it.
Immanentize
@Omnes Omnibus: I never heard that before. Thanks! Guitars sound like Radio Birdman.
Immanentize
@Steve in the ATL: my students will be hearing from Msr. France this semester, I assure you.
ETA it seems Julian doesn’t like Yoko either.
Nettoyeur
@UncleEbeneezer: Esp. when they are captured, handcuffed Serbian war criminals and their crimes are on tape.
Omnes Omnibus
@Immanentize: They are a fun band. One of my favorites.
cintibud
A gavel
Jim, Foolish Literalist
BTW, here’s how Joe Biden is acknowledging the two year anniversary of January 6
Matt McIrvin
@Chetan Murthy: Some of them promised that they were going to reverse the 2020 election and put Trump in the White House in 2023, didn’t they? They may have some kind of idea that they’re making that happen. I’ve always assumed that the efforts to elect Trump as Speaker were primarily about putting him in the presidential line of succession.
David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Thanks for reminding me, Discovery channel’s documentary on “January 6th” was released today (video). I’ll watch it this weekend.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: I get where you’re coming from, but the GQPers are going to pick someone eventually, and the TT20 aren’t going to get all they want even if they get Qevin.
RollCall:
Appropriations is where the power of the purse is, and people with those seats aren’t going to give them up – it’s their meal ticket with donors and future employers. Similarly with other important committees. The TT20 won’t win there.
The TT20 lose most of their leverage once a Speaker is chosen. And they have no power at all (except as obstructers) until they’re sworn in (after a Speaker is picked).
Qevin can knife all TT20 by making an enforceable deal with the Democrats. The TT20 will rail against him, but they’re going to do that anyway. He knows that. (Or he should.) He’s still got some arrows he could deploy. But he probably won’t, or can’t, because he’s a not-too-bright liar…
But we’ll see!
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Immanentize
@Omnes Omnibus: i got to see a new artist/group for me — Mono Neon — last Friday warming up for George Clinton. He was fabulous and his group was so tight. I think he played with the Revolution early on.
Invisible
ETA gotta go!
Nettoyeur
@UncleEbeneezer: Esp. when they are captured, handcuffed Serbian war criminals and their crimes are on tape.
@Chetan Murthy: It’s the French Jacobins vs the Montagnards, which ultimately led to the Reign of Terror. Or even more ominously, the Bolsheviks (who claimed thevmajority even though they weren’t) against the Mensheviks, which led to the the Leninist takeover and ulitmately Stalin (who killed the Old Bolsheviks but millions of others too). Bad business.
Nettoyeur
@Another Scott: This sounds ok, but presumes that Kev has retrieved his balls from where Trump made him bury them at Mar a Lago.
NotMax
@mrmoshpotato
SNAFU.
@HumboldtBlue
That includes catching zees while soaking up the sun on beaches, right?
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: @Nettoyeur: Yes! I don’t have the history chops to be able to draw the parallels, but something told me it was like what the Bolsheviks did! The MAGAt Ultras are forcing the rest of the caucus to bend to their will. And notwithstanding Aderholt’s words, the thing is, he actually has something to lose, and these MAGAt Ultras *do not*. They can go balls-to-the-wall. And something else: McCarthy (or whichever normie GrOPer) cannot, *cannot* make a deal with the Dems, b/c they’ll be out on their ear in 2025, and they know it. They know it.
This is also the MAGAts’ not-so-secret power: “bend to our will, or we will burn it down; try to go around us, and we will fuck your career.”
And yes, Nettoyeur, I think there should be historical parallels to this. Probably the ones to which you refer, but I’m just not learned enough, alas.
Chetan Murthy
@Nettoyeur: I also remembered another analogy (ok, ok, it’s fiction, but still ….) from Dune: “The people who can destroy a thing, they control it.”
The MAGAt Ultras control the GrOPer House caucus, b/c they can destroy its ability to any work whatsoever.
Another Scott
Kevin McCarthy is so dedicated to losing he should become a Tesla shareholder – LOLGOP
Cheers,
Scott.
Gvg
I would think the 20 demanding chairmanships for themselves above other republicans might cause those other republicans to start defecting from McCarthy. They might not be voting for the democrats yet, but they could start voting for themselves as a warning to McCarthy he was giving away too much…and warn the tantrum 20 too.
i don’t know if they understand deal making. During the Trump years the problem got really bad. They don’t keep bargains so you can’t actually make any deals with them. That IMO is why no dems are going to bother trying now. They have made it impossible. They also don’t stick to deals with themselves I think. And a lot of their voters don’t think they are supposed to and don’t know that’s why they can’t get nice things.
Chetan Murthy
@Gvg:
Dunno about that: the only nice things they really want, is our heads on pikes, and I think they thought they got a nice downpayment on that, from TFG’s reign. I’m thinking specifically about those children taken from their families at the border. Buncha MAGAts musta creamed their jeans, watching that shit.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: Don Bacon likely intends to retire after this term. David Valadeo and Don Newhouse live in jungle caucus states, and they won reelection even after voting to impeach Trump. If they can get two more defectors they can put Jeffries in the Speaker’s chair without any conditions at all. They’d still have leverage because Democrats would need their votes to pass substantive legislation.
I’m not saying they will do this. But they can, and I bet they’ve thought about it.
danielx
@Another Scott:
Not if one of those fools can call for a leadership vote at any time, for any reason or none.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: MAGA has probably passed its peak, and incumbency is still a huge benefit.
Ballotpedia.org says:
Republicans and Democrats not seeking House re-election:
2012 – 20R, 23D
2014 – 25R, 16D
2016 – 25R, 16D
2018 – 34R, 18D
2020 – 26R, 9D
2022 – 18R, 31D
There’s always some turnover, and 25 leaving voluntarily would not be unusual, but incumbency is a huge advantage. Most of them will stay to fight.
Most of the country, and most of the GQP, is not MAGA.
I agree completely that it would be a seismic shift for the GQP to decide that working with Democrats is preferable to working with the TT20. But we may get to that point eventually.
I’m not expecting it, mind you, not least because the GQP is full of liars that cannot be trusted so House Democrats would rightly be very wary. But it is an option.
We’ll see!
Cheers,
Scott.
sdhays
@Gvg: This is what’s kind of amazing to me, that the rest of the Republican caucus is, so far, ok with these 19 or so jackasses demanding a bunch of concessions to themselves while the rest of the caucus just taking it like they have no say.
Do they really like Qevin so much that they don’t care about, well, anything else? If so, why has it taken this long to come to an agreement? Just give the shits everything they can dream up.
randy khan)
I think the list of options leaves out the most likely one – McCarthy doesn’t drop out but gets supplanted by someone whose primary characteristic is that he or she isn’t Kevin McCarthy. It could be Scalise or even Stefanik (who would oh so reluctantly agree to do it if push came to shove). And it doesn’t mean that person would have any more chance than McCarthy, but enough defections to a not-utterly-insane option would sink him even if he wanted to stay in.
Another Scott
@randy khan): I think Qevin has a lot of support among the 200, probably because he’s been a big fundraiser. I don’t imagine those people giving in without an explicit public statement from Qevin. At least not yet.
There’s nothing pressing on the House calendar until January 24 (when they’re supposed to start actual work). So, unless they’re pissed off about potentially missing their flights home tomorrow and force a resolution tonight/tomorrow as a consequence (normally that would be the case, but the 200 seem to think this is a big deal so maybe not), there’s really no need for anyone to move off their positions yet.
We’ll see!
(Also, you’ve got a close-parenthesis in your handle now that didn’t used to be there.)
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Anyway
Worried now about what this portends for the debt ceiling negotiations. The 20 nihilists may demand blowing up the economy as the price for their support.
Chetan Murthy
@Anyway: Norman already did. Made it explicit.
Another Scott
Cheers,
Scott.
Anyway
@Chetan Murthy:
I missed that. No R speaker is going to try passing anything with Ds support after this.
Frankensteinbeck
@danielx:
They can call for a vote about whether there is a leadership vote. If it doesn’t serve the Dems’ purpose to go through another round of this, the vote will fail and the TT20 will have done nothing but add a meaningless vote to the schedule. Their power is very, very limited. They can do almost nothing to their fellow Reps. They have Kevin’s balls in a vice, but I don’t think they really want anything from him, they’re just pissing inside the tent to show they’re the biggest shithead trolls in politics, which is what they were elected to be.
@Anyway:
They’d better get that written irreversibly into the rules, because just a promise is going to get them jack shit. I’m not worried about the debt ceiling. As has been noted above, the TT20 are also not just negotiating with Kevin. The rest of the caucus has a say, and are not interested in some of the crazier rules the TT20 want.
Chetan Murthy
@Frankensteinbeck: Let us imagine Speaker Stefanik is presiding, and Rep. Norman demands a leadership vote. If the Dems provide Stefanik with the votes to stay in power, would we imagine they’d do so without getting something in return? At which point, Rep. Stefanik will not win her next primary in her red district of far-northern NYS.
No, I don’t agree with you.
Frankensteinbeck
@Chetan Murthy:
This reasoning only works if it’s half a dozen Rs and all the Ds. Exactly like the current situation, people expect Democrats to save Republicans from themselves. If 90% of the Rs vote down the motion, which they will because they’re doing it now, and just enough Ds help, it becomes something a few bomb throwers are whining about. Only the ‘obsessed with RINOs’ section of the party will care, and if you’re in leadership, if you have to do anything actually practical whatsoever, congrats, you’re already a RINO.
And Loser Stink kicks in. Bomb throwers who do not get a scalp, THEY become the RINOs. It’s not like there’s ideological difference between Boebert and McCarthy. Do you think Boebert gives a shit about the debt ceiling? It’s something practical that elected GOP have had to do, and she can use that fact as a cudgel right now while she has the power.
The Democrats could save McCarthy right now, everybody knows it, and Republicans have asked. Right now Ds have no reason to. If the debt ceiling is at risk, Ds might bother.
RaflW
If you want to destroy our system of government from the inside, looking like fools on TV and twitter won’t really matter to you.
I know the last Congress passed an Omnibus so these radical wreckers can’t shut everything down right away, but one has to wonder if the real game isn’t to just grind it all down. Push the brain drain, get experienced staffers to quit in frustration (or in valid need of income!).
Joe Biden can’t sign any big gubmit bills if there isn’t a functioning (or, by accounts, extant) third leg of our ‘constitutional’ ‘system’.
Chetan Murthy
@RaflW:
That has been the GrOPer plan since Gingrich’s time: I’ve read several articles over the decades about how Congress simply doesn’t have the staff anymore to do deep policy work, and this is part of what drives reliance on lobbyists to write legislation, sigh.
David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️
Invoking the debt limit means no Social Security checks go out, no Medicare bills are paid, airports shut down, no subsidizes to “patriotic farmers”, no troop salaries, fire and brimstone coming down from the skies, rivers and seas boiling, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!
Congress itself would be furloughed.
Sure, that’ll happen
James E Powell
@Turgidson:
And the story no one in the press will do – the words they will never say – is that people like Boebert & Goetz are exactly what Republican voters want.
They don’t want competent adults who work on policy solutions. They want JD Vance & Ron Johnson & Ron DeSantis & Greg Abbott.
James E Powell
@Gvg:
Republicans & FOX & right-wing radio tell their voters every day that Democrats are evil people who hate Jesus & the troops & are determined to destroy the American way of life. So they can’t really tell their voters they sat down & cut a deal with such enemies.
Citizen Alan
@David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️:
Do not mock the idea of a nihilistic death cult acting on its nihilistic impulses. They will literally murder the human race just to own the libs at this point.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@lgerard: The fact that Matt and Mercedes Schlapp look like two D-list actors cast to play Michelle and Marcus Bachmann in a Lifetime dramatization seems cromulent here…
The Lodger
@Splitting Image: I would rather be anywhere else but here today.
David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It never fails. The ones screaming about morality always turn out be immoral.
Chetan Murthy
@David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️: Boy howdy, ol’ Mercedes must be feeling like shit today — her whole life up in smoke, she’s been a beard all this time. Gosh, sorry not sorry for her. And hubs, what a piece of shit.
gene108
@David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️:
Republicans refused to raise the debt ceiling, when Boehner was Speaker. Boehner decided to one up the “Hastert rule” and pass legislation with only Republican votes.
Treasury still has means to keep paying the debt for several months, without the debt ceiling actually being raised, but those financing tricks can’t go on forever. If Republicans want to take the debt ceiling hostage, like they’ve done in the recent past, some of them must know they have some breathing room while hostage negotiations commence.
The worrisome part is these 20 Freedumb-ier members of the Freedom Caucus may not agree to negotiations, but demand capitulation to all their demands or they’ll take all of us down with them.
David 📢 Speaker 📢 Koch☑️
@gene108:
I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed. 10 to 20 million people without their Social Security checks, tops – depending on the breaks.
Chetan Murthy
@gene108: Mint the coin, Granpa Joe! Mint the coin!
Matt McIrvin
@gene108: Since they’re a small minority, they have no power unless the rest of the House refuses to cooperate. They can obstruct the Speaker vote now because the Democrats have no reason to help the Republicans elect a Speaker. But if the survival of the nation were really on the line, well, the 20 couldn’t take us down without the rest of the Republicans deciding to help them do it. So the way I see it, it wouldn’t be on them.
PaulB
That’s a courtesy rather than a requirement. Just as the State of the Union speech itself is a custom and not a requirement. Biden can give a State of the Union speech any time he wishes and to any audience he wishes.
Would Republicans show up if the Speaker of the House isn’t involved? Probably not, but who cares?
PaulB
With all due respect, your conspiracy theories simply do not hold up to scrutiny. There is literally zero reason to believe that any of them are motivated by what you are claiming, and every reason to believe that what we see on the surface is exactly what is going on underneath: bomb throwers throwing bombs because they can, because they love the chaos, because they love the attention.
There is no “shaken;” there is no “desperation;” there is no “consequences.” Let it go and move on.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@PaulB:
What do you mean by “no consequences”? re: the Jan 6th investigations?
Chris Johnson
@gene108: There was a recent Sam Seder video where Sean Hannity fought with Lauren Boebert, and in the middle of all her smoke screen she dropped this: that the government couldn’t give money to Ukraine while her 20 refused to vote for McCarthy.
So it’s all about cutting off money to Ukraine? Making the 20 the Putin delegates, and explaining why they will not ever give up, because they’re procedurally capable of getting what they want simply by locking everything up? That’s a motivation, and the character of the 20 suggests they’re the Russian-owned ones: like sex predator Gaetz, who could easily be subject to kompromat. Others just ideologically side with Russia.
So maybe it’s just very simple and direct? It might show exactly which Republicans legit are owned by Russia, and which just got bribed and influenced by Russia. Trump’s owned by Russia too, but I think he’s on a tighter leash, and these ones are off the script.
WaterGirl
@CaseyL: Yeah, I started heading in the direction of that same thinking when I woke up in the night last night.
WaterGirl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Do not fuck with Pete Buttigieg. He will wipe the floor with you.
@UncleEbeneezer: I hope that suit on behalf of Brian aSicknick goes somewhere, and isn’t just dismissed. That this filing came today, on Jan 6, is no accident.
NotMax
@WaterGirl
Insurrection II:
ElectricWhale Oil Lamp Boogaloo?Paul in KY
@Splitting Image: Would she have a special sword
Edit: Matt F beat me to it!
Geminid
@WaterGirl: This lawsuit seems similar to the one brought by people injured at the Charlottesville rally August 12, 2017, against the organizers. It took along time, but that action eventually went to trial and resulted in a ~$20 million judgement agains about ten individuals and groups.
Paul in KY
@cintibud: Well played!
Paul in KY
@Chris Johnson: That should be investigated by the FBI.
WaterGirl
@Amir Khalid: I also wonder if they might be reeling McCarthy in, just a little bit, time after time, letting him think that they might be making progress.
Because if the number goes down afrom 20 at all, it will be seen as making progress, a justification for hanging in there.
WaterGirl
@Immanentize: Maybe spearheading efforts on that front will be your passion and reason for early retirement at some point.
WaterGirl
@Amir Khalid: Biden could also make a public speech and call it In Lieu of the State of the Union.
Iron City
@kalakal:
A moistened bint lobbing a scimitar to you is no basis for a system of government