(Portrait of General of the Army Omar N. Bradley by Clarence Lamont MacNelly, 1972. Image found here.)
We’re sending 50 Bradleys to Ukraine! The infantry fighting vehicles, not the dapper gent above. And Germany is sending Marder personnel carriers and a Patriot battery!
A joint press statement from President Biden and Bundeskanzler Sholz:
Joint Press Statement Following a Call between the President Joe Biden and the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz
President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. and Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke by phone on January 5, 2023 to exchange views on the ongoing war of aggression waged by Russia against Ukraine. They reiterated their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence. They reaffirmed their unwavering solidarity with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people in the face of Russia’s aggression.
President Biden and Chancellor Scholz expressed their common determination to continue to provide the necessary financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine for as long as needed. To this end, the United States intends to supply Ukraine with Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, and Germany intends to provide Ukraine with Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles. Both countries plan to train Ukrainian forces on the respective systems.
In light of Russia’s ongoing missile and drone attacks against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, President Biden and Chancellor Scholz affirmed their intention to further support Ukraine’s urgent requirement for air defense capabilities. In late December, the United States announced its donation of a Patriot air defense missile battery to Ukraine. Germany will join the United States in supplying an additional Patriot air defense battery to Ukraine.
President Biden and Chancellor Scholz expressed appreciation for the military support provided by other Allies and partners to Ukraine, endorsed the ongoing coordination efforts of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, and welcomed additional donations of air defense systems and combat vehicles.
Here is The Kyiv Independent‘s defense correspondent Illia Ponomarenko’s response to the news out of Germany:
What.
Is.
Happening.
Today.
!!!!!!!!! https://t.co/sio1wS3yHp— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 5, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!
Today was another active diplomatic day – four more leaders of partner states were fully informed about Ukraine’s defense needs and the nearest plans of the terrorist state.
Russia will not be able to conceal in silence its preparations for a new wave of aggression against Ukraine and the whole of Europe. The world will know in all details – how and when the aggressor is preparing a new escalation in this war. And every new mobilization step of Russia will be known to the world even before Russia makes it. We will ensure this.
And we strengthen the defense of Ukraine every day.
I always discuss two things with all leaders – more defense support for our state, that is, more weapons for our army, and more protection for all Ukrainians – protection on the ground, in the sky and at sea.
My conversation with Prime Minister of Croatia Plenković today was not only meaningful, as always, but also quite inspiring.
I heard the full support for our state, as well as the readiness of Croatia to be a leader in the implementation of those steps that guarantee the return of security elements to Ukraine and Europe in general. Croatia is ready to be a leader in those efforts that are necessary to clear our land from Russian mines and unexploded shells. This is one of the vital tasks for our country and all Europeans.
No part of Europe should be – and will not be – contaminated with mines, no matter how hard Russia tries to fill our land with its instruments of death.
My today’s conversation with the President of Latvia was also devoted to the path that our entire continent must take to ensure truly reliable security after the defeat of Russian aggression. We discussed the points of the Ukrainian Peace Formula – security, restoration of our territorial integrity and full force of the UN Charter, as well as the fair responsibility of Russia and all its murderers for the terror against Ukrainians.
I would also like to mention the conversation with President of Türkiye Erdoğan – it concerned many elements of security in our Black Sea region.
Of course, we talked about the necessary steps to ensure food security and what needs to be done for nuclear safety and prevention of any radiation incidents, the threat of which Russia has made, unfortunately, quite real.
We also talked about the dynamics of the situation in our region – about the fact that the masters of Russia are now in a rather desperate situation due to the defeats of the occupiers at the front and are ready for various manipulations.
I am grateful to President Erdoğan for supporting our state and the necessity of fair restoration of the security of Ukraine and the whole of Europe based on the restoration of our territorial integrity.
My conversation with Prime Minister of Spain Sánchez was very meaningful and timely. On the eve of the new meeting in the Ramstein format, it is very important for each of our partners to know 100% the real situation on the frontline and what our Defense Forces are ready for. I thank Mr. Prime Minister Sánchez and all Spaniards for their unwavering support of our commitment to defend freedom.
And today I would like to express separate gratitude to President Biden and Chancellor Scholz for the decision to strengthen our defense, a very important decision. We will have another Patriot battery and powerful armored vehicles – this is truly a great victory for our country. All details and terms will be announced tomorrow – after my conversation with Mr. Chancellor.
Today, I also held a meeting of the Staff devoted primarily to the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and all our defense and security forces. We understand that we must use the nearest time – January and the beginning of February – to be ready for any attempts of terrorists to use new mobilization resources of Russia.
Today, I would like to commend our fighters of the 54th separate mechanized brigade who have been successfully holding positions in the Bakhmut direction for many months. And also – the fighters of the 35th marine brigade for the gradual, step by step liberation of our territories in the Donetsk direction. Thank you, warriors!
I am grateful to each and everyone who provides us with the much needed resilience and progress in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions!
And one more thing I want to remind the citizens of Russia today.
On November 15, the Ukrainian Peace Formula was presented. One of its points provides for the withdrawal of Russian occupation troops from the territory of our country. This is a guaranteed and reliable way to cease fire, stop casualties and war in general.
As of the morning of the same day, the number of Russian soldiers killed was 82,000.
On December 12, Russia received an offer to begin implementation of the Peace Formula with the withdrawal of occupation troops just on Christmas Day.
As of that day already, the number of Russian soldiers killed was almost 95,000.
Apparently both of our proposals have not been heard by the leaders of your country… In the place where they are, apparently, it is too deep to hear.
As of today, you have already lost almost 110,000 of your soldiers killed in this war.
Those who continued the terror against our country and sent all those people of yours to the slaughter, rejecting our offers to stop the Russian aggression, certainly do not value life and definitely do not seek peace.
Now they want to use Christmas as a cover to at least briefly stop the advance of our guys in Donbas and bring equipment, ammunition and mobilized men closer to our positions. What will this bring? Just another increase in the death toll.
Everyone in the world knows how the Kremlin uses respites at war to continue the war with renewed vigor. But to end the war faster, that is not what is needed at all. What is needed is the citizens of Russia who will find the courage to free themselves of their shameful fear of one man in the Kremlin, at least for 36 hours, at least at Christmas time.
Your fear of him destroys your country, which is also already deep… But not in a bunker.
To end the war is to end your state’s aggression. Even when your missiles and drones are not hitting our cities, the terror in the occupied territories continues. You don’t give Ukrainians any respite. People are tortured, electrocuted, raped. This continues every day while your soldiers are on our soil.
And the war will be over when your soldiers either leave or we drive them out.
So, let them take the toilet bowls – they’ll need them on the road – and go back home. Behind our border of 1991.
I thank everyone who helps our people defend freedom!
I thank everyone who fights and works to defeat terrorists!
Glory to our strong people!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut and Kremenna:
BAKHMUT AXIS /2140 UTC 5 JAN/ UKR air defense is confirmed to have shot down a Russian Su-35 strike aircraft near Vasela Dolyna. Initial reports suggest that the pilot was captured by UKR ground forces. pic.twitter.com/CpzofA6Fps
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 5, 2023
MANY THANKS: To @COMCEN76 for working to create these unique and updated topographic renderings– the new base maps show important details. And thanks to the many readers who asked for better renderings of terrain and features.
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 5, 2023
KRIMENNA AXIS / 2145 UTC 5 JAN/ UKR forces operational south of Krimenna urban area. RU Wagner Group units stage failed attack against Bilohorvika. RU Mi-8 helicopter confirmed downed by UKR air defense. pic.twitter.com/T46YWFypCn
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 5, 2023
Here is The Kyiv Independent‘s defense correspondent Illia Ponomarenko’s recent reporting from Bakhmut:
BAKHMUT, Donetsk Oblast — It’s the last days of December and the heat of the holiday season. But an artillery battalion with Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Infantry just couldn’t care less.
For them, it’s like Groundhog Day – just another day of war that keeps repeating over and over.
From their place in an abandoned village in Donetsk Oblast, they support Ukrainian infantry repelling Russian frontal attacks in Bakhmut. The site of the most grueling battle of Russia’s war in Ukraine so far, Bakhmut has been drawing comparisons with World War I’s deadly Battle of Verdun.
A 122-millimeter 2S1 self-propelled howitzer Gvozdika is waiting in the bushes, the dry grass around it charred after the gun’s multiple shots on the spot.
The gun is on standby. The artillerymen are in an abandoned house nearby, where they try to keep close to the cellar. The radio buzzes: A warning comes that Russians counter-shot some of this battery’s guns this morning, “so you guys better watch out.”
Time after time, other Ukrainian howitzers rattle the air. The thunder of impact rolls through the steppe, and plumes of whitish smoke rise on the horizon. The artillery duel between Russians and Ukrainians is brutal. Russian artillery is attacking from Opytne, a town just south of Bakhmut.
“Hey, did you see what happened to those dudes from our regiment the other day?” one of the crew tells his mates.
“By some miracle, the recon told them Russians were about to target their area. So they took cover at the last minute. But their machine is absolutely down. A knock-out hit.”
He pulls out a picture of a burning 2S1 howitzer on his smartphone.
“Shit happens, but they are all fine now.”
Tanks, Humvees, and seen-it-all 4×4 trucks roar time and again near the house as they try to dash through the unbelievable swamps of dirt roads.
The radio buzzes again.
“Ah, fuck,” the artillerymen drop their cigarettes and rush to the gun.
Two rounds are requested. The infantry fighting in Bakhmut need urgent support.
The howitzer gets loaded. The coordinates have been adjusted.
“Fire!” the gun’s commander shouts.
The old Soviet howitzer spits out a shot, instantly filling the air with smoke and the smell of expelled propellant. And one more time. The work is done — for now.
The crew get back to the same rhythm of waiting in a cold abandoned house for command. The wait may last a few minutes or painfully endless hours.
The grueling Battle of Bakhmut lasts for five months, but Russian forces, despite insane pressure and massive losses, have not yet managed to capture the important city, the local transportation hub and one of key fortresses of Donbas. Their slow advances finally got them to the city’s outskirts – in many ways due to their overwhelming artillery power.
But over recent weeks, Russian advances in the area have been dying down.
The Battle of Bakhmut is likely culminating.
According to international monitors, Russian forces appear to be losing their biggest advantage over Ukraine — the seemingly near-endless stocks of artillery munitions. After so many months of inadequately costly effort to encircle the Ukrainian fortress city, even popular Russian war bloggers admit the acute munitions hunger that is now impeding their advances.
Ukrainian forces on the ground confirm the rapidly decreasing activity of Russian artillery.
But meanwhile, Ukrainian artillery, despite extensive Western supplies, also struggles to make its best due to lack of munitions, especially when it comes to old Soviet standards.
On the ground, this results in horrific losses among Ukrainian infantry holding the ground for months.
Behind this grid of artillery guns pounding Russian lines around the clock, there’s just one man.
He sits at a desk in front of a laptop and an iPad in a townhouse close to the howitzers. The room is heated hot with a stove, and he is sipping coffee from his mug. This humble working place is a priority target for Russian counter-battery activity.
The man, Stepan, is watching the real-time picture of the battlefield, transmitted by the drones in the air. He coordinates the artillery strikes delivered at requests of infantry.
His iPad shows fields of black and green surrounding Bakhmut. As far as the drone’s electric eye can see, everything up to the horizon is a giant moonscape of black impact holes.
Time and again, new plumes of smoke rise up in the field from fresh impacts.
“Our godawful Starlink just isn’t working the way it should,” the specialist says as he angrily digs into his laptop.
“How am I supposed to work when the internet is so damn slow?”
As simple as that, the Ukrainian military shares the picture from drones with other units via link-only live streams on YouTube.
After five months of fighting, Russian forces near Bakhmut have only advanced between 6 and 12 kilometers east and south of the city. Since September, they have stood at the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
But neither frontal attacks nor attempts to isolate the Bakhmut garrison from the north (via Soledar) and the south (via Kurdiumivka) have had limited results, although they put the city closer to the downfall.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, in December, Russia had concentrated 40 battalion tactical groups and the largest artillery force in the area.
After the Russian military’s spectacular failures in Kharkiv and Kherson, the battle for Bakhmut has become the Kremlin’s only realistic chance to get a victory that can be used to reinforce the pro-war propaganda.
For this sake, the Wagner Group, headed by increasingly powerful Kremlin insider Yevgeniy Prigozhyn, is going as far as the mass recruitment of convicts in Russian prisons to be thrown in the meat grinder of Bakhmut.
In December, it felt like Bakhmut might fall soon.
Russian forces made gains south of the city, aiming to sever the vital road running west to the city of Kostyantynivka. Had they succeeded, Ukrainian forces would have to withdraw from the city to avoid a death trap.
Russian forces managed to enter the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut in December. But on Dec. 21, the day after President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to the city, Ukrainian forces managed to carry out a tactical counter-attack and drive Russia out of the city.
And then on Dec. 27, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence General Kyrylo Budanov was seen visiting his scouting troops deployed in Bakhmut just 600 meters from Russia’s lines.
Many indicators allege that Russia’s pressure in Bakhmut is finally reaching its limits.
Ukrainian forces are sustaining between 3 and 8 infantry attacks in the area daily, according to troops on the ground. But over the last few weeks, Russians were seen switching to using small squads of between 10 and 15 men instead of company or battalion-sized tactical groups.
Besides, Russian airborne units were also reportedly deployed to the Bakhmut area to augment the Wagner Group, seriously degraded after months of costly attacks.
Another factor is the reportedly diminishing Russian artillery power.
In late December, Budanov said that the daily spending of Russian artillery in combat dropped from 60,000 to between 19,000 and 20,000 rounds by the end of 2022.
Moreover, according to the general, by March 2023, these issues will be even more obvious.
On Dec. 24, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense also said Russian forces currently lack the necessary stockpile to support large-scale offensive operations and sustain defensive operations in Ukraine.
Rumors on deteriorating munitions have been circulating for quite some time in Russian pro-war Telegram channels. An escalation came on Dec. 27, when the Wagner Group released a video in which two militants insult Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov and accuse him of severe lack of artillery munitions in the Bakhmut area.
Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), an open-source investigations group, however, says the current situation is precipitated by poor and ineffective logistics rather than the physical absence of munitions in Russia’s stockpile per se.
“The intensity has definitely dropped several-fold, that’s true,” artillery specialist Stepan told the Kyiv Independent near Bakhmut, as Ukrainian howitzers kept booming behind the house windows.
“Including in terms of counter-artillery activity. Which is good for us.”
From the Ukrainian side, however, the situation is no better.
Especially when it comes to Soviet-standard munitions, the main stocks of which had been largely depleted back in summer. According to the 24th Brigade artillerists, at the beginning of Russia’s war, each battery used to get up to 150 full loads of munitions a day (which corresponds to up to 6,000 rounds). Now they’re getting only up to 30 full loads a day.
“We need every single 122-millimeter round anywhere in the world so we could go on helping our infantry. We do everything we can, but we don’t have much ammo,” Ukrainian artillerists say.
“You just can’t have enough rounds in this war.”
Much, much more at the link!
More from Bakhmut:
New #satelliteimagery of the besieged city of #Bakhmut, #Ukraine. The city has been the focus of intense battles between Russian & Ukrainian forces for the past 6 months & the imagery reveals extensive damage to buildings & infrastructure. Before Aug 1, 2022, after Jan 4, 2023. pic.twitter.com/iZckjYkF7R
— Maxar Technologies (@Maxar) January 5, 2023
Putin asked for an Eastern Rite Christmas ceasefire. He is not going to get it.
First. Ukraine doesn't attack foreign territory & doesn't kill civilians. As RF does. Ukraine destroys only members of the occupation army on its territory…
Second. RF must leave the occupied territories – only then will it have a "temporary truce". Keep hypocrisy to yourself.— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) January 5, 2023
Another sort of galaxy brains — those who will accuse Ukraine of ‘warmongering’ and ‘failing to strive for peace’ if Ukraine tells Putin to fuck off.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 5, 2023
Based. https://t.co/aFPGshgWoN
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 5, 2023
It’s not playing well with the rabidly pro-war Russian mil-bloggers either:
"The ceasefire will be a disaster. This logic has never worked."
— Will Vernon (@BBCWillVernon) January 5, 2023
"What f*cking ceasefire? What f*cking holidays? Will you bring back my friends, who are no longer with us because of your criminal orders?"
— Will Vernon (@BBCWillVernon) January 5, 2023
Wait for it. Wait for it!!!
Good falcon hunting by #UAarmy.
Watch until the end.
🎶 @the_prodigy pic.twitter.com/MUEX1xL7iC— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 5, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Patron retweeted this:
Security Dogs of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/JW7ZzdyAx6
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 4, 2023
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns
I’m pretty sure the caption is self explanatory.
Open thread!
Vote Something, Day 3, In Case You’ve Lost Track
dmsilev
The Christmas 1914 comparison is pretty facile, which of course means that many people will in fact regard it as a good analogy to draw.
Chief Oshkosh
50 Bradleys? I figured it’d be closer to 500, but what do I know? If the Ukranians are happy with 50, then great!
Tanks again, Adam, for these great updates and commentary.
Alison Rose
The whole portion where Zelenskyy is speaking to russians was fucking killer, but this:
Perfection. A++, sir.
I had no idea what Bradleys were when I first saw mentions of them but the right people seemed happy, so I took it as a good thing. Once I learned what they were, I was very happy, too!
Dang, I haven’t heard The Prodigy in forever. That’s some high school nostalgia right there.
And now for more mishegas from the House Republicans. Like putin, they remain master strategists.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Bobby Thomson
Bradleys always make me think of that HBO movie with Kelsey Grammer.
Don’t we have a lot of unused Abrams tanks collecting dust? Or do we WANT them to be battle tested?
Jeffro
Major props to the Ukrainians and I hope they make GREAT use of those Bradleys!
How any American could fail to support UKR 110%, I’ll never know. Oh wait, Putin money. But besides that…
patrick II
James Fallows wrote an eloquent article about the power of Zelenky’s speeches.
the pale scot @ gmail
Adam, do you have any info about RU stocks of replacement tubes for their artillery? From what I’ve read RU doesn’t have the capability to forge modern tubes. they were buying them from ‘Germany. It was unclear whether the blanks are milled in Germany or RU. I assume that RU can do that as long as their supply of German made machine tools and bits holds up. I thought this would be a growing problem for RU by now
ru
Parfigliano
Hopefully machine Bradley’s are as good at killing Russians as Bradley the man killing Germans.
Omnes Omnibus
@Parfigliano: Bradleys destroyed more Iraqi tanks during the Gulf War than Abrams tanks did.
Alison Rose
@patrick II: Thank you for sharing this post.
Anonymous At Work
Bradleys will fit very well with Ukrainian strategy for breakouts and breakthroughs.
The real question is what’s going to happen in Bahkmut, now that the Wagnerites have decided to depopulate Russia to win a bomb crater. Can they be stopped and what would that gain Russian forces?
trollhattan
The Germans couldn’t be bothered to call them Mordor personnel carriers? Surely, Ukraine will be happy to have them and perhaps have a naming competition once they arrive.
sanjeevs
@Bobby Thomson: Mark Hertling had a thread about the issues with using Abrams a while back
MarkHertling on Twitter: “During this war, there’s been calls for the US to give UKR more _____________ (fill in the blank with M1 Abrams tanks, Patriot Missile Systems, F16s, A10s, etc). Those calls often come from politicians, reporters, or those with little knowledge of weapons. A 🧵 to discuss. 1/23” / Twitter
Roger Moore
@Bobby Thomson:
Not as far as I know. The Abrams is still our front-line MBT, so I don’t think we have any just gathering dust.
sdhays
@Chief Oshkosh: I assume this is just the first package. As logistics lines get established and Ukraine gets comfortable with maintaining and operating them, more will find their way to Ukraine.
Adam L Silverman
@the pale scot @ gmail: I’ve read the same stuff, so my understanding is they can’t. The issue is whether they can source them from Iran or somewhere else. Iran has the tech and expertise to make them, how quickly I don’t know.
Also, what is going on with your nym?
Adam L Silverman
@Parfigliano: What @Omnes Omnibus: said!
Anonymous At Work
@Adam L Silverman: Which is why Israel’s increased ambivalence and/or support for Russia makes little sense. Russia is subsidizing Iranian weapons R&D. “Never pass up an opportunity to pass up an opportunity.”
Omnes Omnibus
@sanjeevs: I referred to Hertling’s thread back when it came out and got called out because while the Abrams prefers jet fuel like juice, it is has a multi fuel engine. Like this negates the general point.
RobertDSC-iPhone 8
I wish I could send President Zelenskyy an American baseball for him to sign and return. He is an inspiration and an incredible figure for these times.
lowtechcyclist
Not Milton Bradley either. ;-)
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: The ultra-religious, ultra-nationalists that are pushing this change are part of or adjacent to ultra-devout Jewish organizations that Russia has co-opted.
surfk9
The French are also sending AMX-10’s which are essentially a wheeled light tank that can also carry troops. There is some good info on it over at Kos’s place. Sounds like a bad-ass machine
Freemark
@Omnes Omnibus: My guess is that it can run on multi-fuels but not as well and with extra maintenance. More for emergency use. And it is still much thirstier than other tanks. Maintenance is also much more intensive and difficult than with the Bradley. Just the training time to do the basic maintenance on the Abrams is 3x longer than for the Bradley.
But maybe now that DE is giving Marders to Ukraine Leopard IIs wont be far behind. And they are much more suitable logistically for Ukraine.
oldster
In which I write to the White House Contact link:
Subject: Bradleys Good! More Bradleys Better!
Dear Mr. President,
Bless you for your excellent work at home and abroad. You have made me proud to be an American, proud to be a Democrat. Your accomplishments over the last two years have made America stronger, safer, better. Your legislation on infrastructure and computer manufacture is making America more independent and secure — safeguarding us from climate change and foreign manipulation.
I want to especially thank you for your support of Ukraine. This is the fight of our times, and it is the good fight. You and your team at State and Defense are waging it earnestly, wisely, and successfully. Ukraine will win, and expel Russia from its borders. It will be a victory for Europe, for democracy, for peace on earth.
Today I learned that we will be sending 50 Bradleys to Ukraine. Good! My only request is that you send more. Send them 500 Bradleys. Send them 5,000 Bradleys, if we can spare them. It will end the war more quickly, and it will save lives on both sides.
Under Lend-Lease, we sent the USSR about 7,000 tanks — Shermans and Lees– and 5,000 other armored vehicles. We sent them over 11,000 aircraft, and — this is incredible — over 400,000 cars, jeeps, and trucks. We did it not from any love of Joe Stalin, but in order to defeat Nazi Germany. It was the right thing to do, and it was an investment that paid dividends for our country.
I hope you will think about those numbers, think about what is possible, and increase our aid to Ukraine. They are fighting the spiritual descendants of Nazi Germany — Putin’s army of thugs that tortures, and aims to subjugate a free people.
I know you have to act with prudence and circumspection. I know you cannot always do as much as you would like. But I urge you to continue doing more to support Ukraine. More Bradleys! More tanks! More of whatever they need to reach a swift victory.
Thank you once again.
Amir Khalid
@trollhattan:
Because they’re not going to be carrying orcs, duh.
The Pale Scot
@Adam L Silverman:
what is going on with your nym?
JS was turned off,
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: Absolutely disgusting, with a country that has repeatedly calls Jews Nazis.
Kent
I expect that is the first shipment. The follow-up shipments will be much quieter and more mundane.
Kent
I think Israel is cravenly seeking Russian favor and carte blanche with respect to Syria and Lebanon.
SiubhanDuinne
@Chief Oshkosh:
i saw that.
Kent
We have vast quantities of Abrams gathering dust. The Marines just decommissioned all of theirs.
Ken B
@Roger Moore: We’ve got somewhere between 2300 and 3000 actually in reserve. I believe most are M1s, though there may be some M1A1s.
When the Abrams was accepted as the M1 it was fitted with a 105mm smoothbore cannon. Over time the specs for the tanks were upgraded. Newer tanks were built to the improved specs, and some of the older ones were upgraded.Some weren’t.
The M1A1’s main improvements were the replacement of the 105mm cannon with a 120mm and improvements to the armor. Some improvements to the electronics were made as well.
The M1A2 further improved the armor (adding a deleted uranium (DU) mesh to the front armor). It also made major upgrades to the fire control system and some of the other electronics.
The M1A2 SEP is the Army’s current frontline model. It has major electronics upgrades from the M1A2s and a whole lot of other improvements and upgrades.
Some of the M1A2s and SEPs are upgrades of earlier models.
oldster
@Kent:
“I expect that is the first shipment. The follow-up shipments will be much quieter and more mundane.”
I like that theory. Establish a pipeline, and keep ’em coming.
“The C-5 Galaxy is capable of moving nearly every type of military combat equipment, including… five Bradley Fighting Vehicles at one time.[33]”
Paging passenger Zaluzhny; your luggage has arrived on Carousel 2.
Gin & Tonic
We’ve discussed the date on which Christmas is observed in Ukraine a few times, I think. If you haven’t followed, it is still a mixed bag of Julian and Gregorian observances. There has also been some discussion of Orthodox “patriarchates” (and the reason Fucker Carlson talks about the Ukrainians’ “war on Christianity.”) If your eyes have not already glazed over, this Twitter post refers to a *very* significant development on the politico/religious front. The Kyiv-Pecherska Lavra (the Monastery of the Caves) has for many years been under the control of the Moscow Patriarchate. As of January 1, they were evicted, and Ukrainian Orthodox Metropolitan Epiphanius will be celebrating Christmas Mass there on Saturday.
Martin
@Kent: Someone can count the army ones.
NutmegAgain
Exciting news, all the big hardware. Yes. I confess I don’t know so much about what things do what, so any clarity on that would be super helpful for those like me who are less knowledgeable about military vehicles. I did read the French ones are built by Citröen, leading to the obvious question, do they have pneumatic suspension? (You might have to be older to get that.)
Yesterday I fell down a mighty Iggy Pop rabbit hole after watching the vid that Adam put right in the middle here today. Truly, every day is better with a little Iggy Pop. And dogs; dogs make everything better.
Here is a link that I hope is helpful. It’s the online translation site recommended by my kid, who has been a professional translator/editor for most of the last decade. (Also available as a Chrome extension, but $$) Link to Deepl . Information is coming across in the multiple languages and I thought it might be useful. Sorry I didn’t post it earlier.
Omnes Omnibus
@Freemark: Absolutely. In my time in the army, I never saw them use anything but jet fuel stuff.
Roger Moore
@Omnes Omnibus:
I thought that was because the military settled on using JP8 as the fuel for everything*. It’s not that the M1 can’t burn diesel if that’s all you have; it’s that it’s so much easier to stock only one fuel rather than keeping separate stocks for everything.
*With the possible exception of the occasional exotic beast like the SR-71.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Please check your email.
Matt McIrvin
Odd fact about Bradleys: they play a role in the history of classic video games. When Atari came out with the arcade game Battlezone, which was about driving tanks around a stark landscape rendered in first-person perspective with vector graphics, the Army approached them with a proposal to adapt Battlezone into a trainer for the Bradley gunner, shooting at vehicles with realistic silhouettes. Atari actually did it, though some of their employees objected to working on a military project. I think only a few cabinets were ever made, and they were used as a sort of edutainment game for Bradley crews.
The Bradley trainer used different controls from Battlezone–it had a special yoke modeled after the Bradley gunner’s yoke. Atari re-used the yoke design for its 1983 classic Star Wars. And that’s why Star Wars had that great chunky yoke that looks nothing like the controls in Luke’s X-Wing in the movie–it’s modeled after the gunner’s yoke in a Bradley Fighting Vehicle.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Got it.
Omnes Omnibus
@Roger Moore: Tons of army stuff runs on diesel.
Kent
@Omnes Omnibus: Like all the trucks, including the fuel trucks and all the trucks they use to haul the tanks and ammo around with.
Chief Oshkosh
@SiubhanDuinne: Finally!
Jay
@NutmegAgain:
Suspension and running gear[edit]
The 6×6 AMX-10 RC is fitted with a hydropneumatic suspension system with variable ground clearance and tilt, provided by Messier Auto-Industry. A centralized lubrication and tire inflation system is fitted. A shock damper is mounted at each wheel station.
Roger Moore
@Omnes Omnibus:
I don’t have your experience, but my understanding is that JP8 has now replaced diesel so they can run everything with a single fuel.
the pale scot @ gmail
Unfortunately those T-72s were the export version, the armor was not modern composites, just steel plate
Jay
Jay
Jay
Ruckus
@Omnes Omnibus:
@Roger Moore:
50+ years ago the steam powered navy ship I was on was switched from bunker oil to the then current jet fuel for the boilers. The steam was used to run the electric generator turbines as well as the propulsion turbines. An aircraft carrier that we stood plane guard duty for did as well so we could refuel from the carrier and we did on several occasions. I believe about that time that all the ships that could switch were switched over or built from then on using JP5, way back then. One of the reasons was that one fuel could power the ships and the airplanes. A second reason was that the ships boilers ran dramatically cleaner and more efficiently. The boilers ran at 1275 psi.
oldster
@Jay:
Looks to me like at least two spans of the road bridge are still under water.
Not ripe for another hit just yet.
Tim Ellis
Doing the joint announcement with the German Chancellor, and getting a Patriot battery out of the Germans, is a big win imo – shows strong trans-Atlantic unity, counters muttering about the Germans not pulling their weight in actually delivering supplies, and functionally delivers a very powerful air defence tool. Even one Patriot battery goes a long way, and now they’re getting two (and without drawing down US stocks further, which leaves more gas in the tank so to speak for additional US aid).
Jay
Adik is their name. “Younger Brother”.
YY_Sima Qian
We really shouldn’t call the AMX-10RCs “tanks”, light or otherwise. They were designed & utilized as heavily armed reconnaissance & infantry fire support (assault guns) by the French Army. In these roles they are quite valuable, but they are not designed to go toe to toe w/ main battle tanks (MBTs). Their 105 mm main gun may have trouble penetrating the frontal armor of any modernized T-72s or the more modern T-90s, its own frontal armor will not be able to withstand the 30 mm auto cannons commonly found on Russian infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), & its sides & rear vulnerable to 14.5 mm heavy machine gun fire.
Likewise with the Bradleys. They may have destroyed more Iraqi MBTs than the Abrams in the Gulf Wars, they would not have been able to do so w/o the presence of the Abrams to concentrate the attention of Iraqi tankers. w/ the Iraqi MBTs focused on the Abrams, the Bradleys were able to pick them off at long range, as the TOW-2 ATGMs far outranged their main guns. The flat open desert terrain of southern Iraq also enabled the range advantage of the TOW-2 to be fully realized. Most of Iraqi MBTs were also 50s & 60s era designs whose thin side armor were vulnerable to the Bradley’s 25 mm chain guns. While the Ukrainian fields are also flat, they are also criss-crossed w/ tree lines that hinder direct fire engagement at longer ranges. At shorter ranges, IFVs are in a world of hurt going up against MBTs
I do expect the Ukrainian Army to take full advantage of what the AMX-10RCs & the Bradleys offer. The Russian resources are still quite stretched, & there will be vulnerable parts of the line that the UAF can exploit in a new offensive. The UAF blitzed the thinly held Russian defenses at Kupyansk w/ wheeled armored personnel carriers (APCs) & converted technicals, the AMX-10RCs would be perfect in such maneuver warfare against weak opposition. So can the Bradleys, or they can be used more traditionally alongside the MBTs that the Ukrainian Army does have. The Bradley offers much better protection (the Pentagon Wars notwithstanding) than the thin skinned Soviet era tracked & wheeled IFVs & APCs, or the M113 clones sent by Türkiye, or the MRAPs sent by the US & the UK, that the Ukrainian Army has been using. Both impose much lower logistical burden on the Ukrainians, fuel especially, than western MBTs. The Abrams’ gas turbine engines, in particular, are notorious gas guzzlers.
Omnes Omnibus
@Roger Moore: To the best of my knowledge, Bradleys and the Bradley platformed systems like the M108A7 howitzer are diesel powered. Also, trucks, HMMWVs. and other wheeled vehicles as well.
Another Scott
@Jay:
They seem to be making decent progress on the road bridge. The train bridge is still apparently out of commission.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QT3copUaJ54
They made a deck section and rolled it into place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPJVgSCrwbw
Anyone’s guess how safe the repairs are…
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Omnes Omnibus
@YY_Sima Qian: Are we also going to get into caliber length to determine whether any particular artillery piece is a cannon or a howitzer? Also, the French refer to the AMX10RC as a char which is their term for tank. There is no doubt that it is not an MBT nor is the Bradley, but aside from the ex-soldiers and the milnerds here it isn’t that important.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: Oryx’s ears are burning…
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: Some wag over at The Great Orange Satan put up a funny graphic, apropos of this: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/5/2145481/-Ukraine-update-It-s-a-tank-No-it-s-not-Who-cares-Bradleys-and-AMX-10s-are-going-to-Ukraine#comment_85323323
randy khan)
Once again, thank you for these updates. They are invaluable.
YY_Sima Qian
@Omnes Omnibus: When the average people hear “tank”, they think Abrams, Leopard 2s, K2s, T-90s, not the AMX-10RC or other assault guns. I am trying to clarify to anyone interested that the AMX-10RC is not an MBT, should not expect the performance of MBTs out of them, and should not & will not be used as MBTs.
Omnes Omnibus
@YY_Sima Qian: Most of the people who don’t know the difference won’t know exactly what an MBT can do.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: That’s an old joke of media coverage of military conflicts, & still operative.
Another Scott
Salt Mines?? They really do want to bring back feudalism, don’t they??!
KyivIndependent.com:
Grr…,
Scott.
way2blue
@oldster: I hope your message makes its way to Biden’s desk.
I look everyday to see if today is the day that the U.S. decides to get ahead of the curve—rather than play catch up—and send Ukraine the weapon systems it needs to clear their land and secure their skies.
way2blue
@Gin & Tonic:
Is the Orthodox Christmas date meant to coincide with the Epiphany (i.e., when the three Magi arrived in Bethlehem) rather than the birth of Jesus?
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Very good analysis. Thanks.
way2blue
@Tim Ellis: How much area can one Patriot battery cover? A city like Kyiv? Or something larger? I’m not understanding why two systems is significant, just ignorant…
NutmegAgain
@Jay: Surely you can throw out some more jargon? But seriously, context and description with regular words is super helpful for, ah, civilians.
Chetan Murthy
@NutmegAgain: I myself am partial to a 440 with fuel-injection, dual hemis, and blowers.
Chetan Murthy
@NutmegAgain: I remember reading in the early 1990s, some wag predicted that within 20yr
peoplemen would stop tricking out their cars, and instead spend the same loving care on their computers. I’m of the generation that still cared about car shit, but that’s all over with now except for a very select few aficionados.YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: Unless the Russians push the Ukrainians all the way west of the Dnipro, which isn’t happening, what value could Prigozhin possibly extract from “ownership” of salt & gypsum mines (likely to be heavily damaged in any case) so near to the front lines, even if Bakhmut was to fall? These are not gold & diamond mines.
Origuy
@way2blue: As I understand it, the Russian Orthodox Church still follows the Julian Calendar, which is now 13 days behind the Gregorian Calendar that the rest of the world uses. Russia itself only changed from the Julian calendar in 1918, after the Revolution.
Hangö Kex
@Matt McIrvin: Thanks for the Battlezone tidbit. :) As a wee-ish lad I was very impressed with it; more recently I was, again, very impressed to find a PC emulation (mame) which runs the original game (as in, the code extracted from the original machine).
Also, thanks to Adam (& commenters). :)
Jesse
@Tim Ellis: Don’t worry: the German public (at least, not 50%) doesn’t support weapons for Ukraine. The mainstream German press was happy to point this out today, next to the announcement about the Marders and Patriots. In their eyes, they are complaining about *France* not doing enough. So this is, in the eyes of at least one commentator, actually a show of European *disunity*.
Chetan Murthy
@Jesse:
wuuuut? link?
Jesse
@Chetan Murthy: Here you go (sorry, it’s in German).
Chetan Murthy
@Jesse: Jesus. If that survey is accurate (guess it’s time to look for more), that’s pretty dire. Thanks for the link!
Chetan Murthy
@Jesse: https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/poll-large-majority-of-germans-want-negotiations-between-ukraine-and-russia-now/
Might be the same survey. Ugh.
Chetan Murthy
@Jesse: It’s no wonder the CEE & Nordic countries are fed up with Germany. FFS.
Jesse
@Chetan Murthy: No problem! BTW, my comment was meant in ironic frustration. As a born-and-raised American currently in Germany, I get a front-seat ticket to the German response to these events. I really wish they would do much more than they have, especially given their financial situation and massive culpability in the situation. I think credit should be given when due, of course, but I think it’s not always clear to everyone just how seriously problematic the German response has been so far. Only with massive delays, and with a (still incomplete) recognition of their own culpability, are they doing what little they do.
Jesse
@Chetan Murthy: Totebaggin’: it’s not just an American phenomenon.
One mainstream German website I follow even has (what amounts to) a pinned commentary about how you can’t negotiate with Russia. This is, surely, an attempt to try to counter the phenomenon (which the poll exposes) of too many people thinking that this is just some kind of spat that can be resolved by getting both sides to talk.
Jesse
BTW another tidbit from Germany: they finally finished an LNG terminal (Wait, why didn’t they have one, when several other European countries had them? Because Germany was really addicted to that sweet, sweet Russian gas coming in through the Nord Stream pipelines.) Who is the world’s biggest supplier of LNG? The USA. The first LNG-loaded ship arrived in Germany a couple days ago. Response? Protest. Because the gas was obtained using fracking.
We’re fucking bailing out Germany—again—and the result is protest.
Jay
@NutmegAgain:
like the Citroen car, the AMX-10 has a hydropneumatic suspension. Basically, instead of springs and shock absorbers, there is a pump system, that uses an oil and air system, to raise and lower each wheel and also act as a shock absorber. This means the AMX-10 can raise itself for better ground clearance, lower itself to present less of a target, or “kneel”, raise or lower one end of the vehicle, to increase or decrease maximum gun elevation by a few degrees.
Wheel bearings and drive points like universal joints and pivoit points are all on a single lubrication system so that all can be “greased” up at once, greatly reducing maintenence tasks.
Central air inflation allows the air pressure in each tire to be controlled and adjusted on the move, from inside the vehicle, allowing lower pressure for better traction and lower ground pressure, or higher pressure for higher speeds on pavement.
Each wheel axel point has a shock damper, (non verticle shock absorber), reducing the stress on the drive train and occupants of running over objects like low walls, tree road blocks, rocks, concrete curbs or Winterpeg Pot Holes.
So yeah, like a Citroen DS.
Paul in KY
@Bobby Thomson: I don’t want the Russians to get ahold of one.
Paul in KY
@trollhattan: Remember: Mordor lost.
Paul in KY
@Kent: You don’t want gasoline around explosives. Our Sherman tanks, while good for the time, were gas powered. The British nickname for them were ‘Ronson Lighters’.
Think every tank post-Sherman has been diesel.
Paul in KY
@YY_Sima Qian: Could put the word ‘light’ in front of ‘tank’.
Bill Arnold
Decent article in The Economist, with pages (10?) of depth. (The headline is mostly clickbait.)
How Elon Musk’s satellites have saved Ukraine and changed warfare – And the worries about what comes next (The Economist, Jan 5th 2023)