Tip: Don't make the screws too tight on that plate. Just sayin. #MotionToVacate https://t.co/uRo8XKatFs
— KAMALA NATION (@KamalaNation) January 7, 2023
lmao he didn't even get 218 https://t.co/q9rTEu4jEe
— the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) (@merovingians) January 7, 2023
Feels like there's a certain symmetry here on 1/6 with these goons once again demanding to be allowed to destroy the country. An entire party given over to the urge to get on TV for doing the worst thing possible https://t.co/csBxX7iKCy
— Hemry, Local Bartender (@BartenderHemry) January 6, 2023
This is the important part. The 200 who voted for the concessions to Gaetz have no idea what they voted for and, most importantly to them, they don’t need to know. They support whatever Gaetz wants. https://t.co/PrZSuxrwCL
— Luke Watson (@LukeWatsonCMF) January 7, 2023
well folks the fight was long and hard. it was brutal and we had to make many concessions, like agreeing to nuke the world economy for..reasons. but you held the faith, and now, with the support of an accused pedophile, we've elected the weakest speaker of the house in 100+ years
— tom mckay (@thetomzone) January 7, 2023
Dude on Fox just now "we need to be able to count better going forward"
— Karin Vanoppen (@Belindiam) January 7, 2023
“That was easy, huh? I never thought I’d get up here,” McCarthy says as he takes the gavel from Hakeem Jeffries. He jokingly gives this warning to Jeffries: “Two years ago, I got 100% of the vote from my conference.”
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) January 7, 2023
In McCarthy’s home district:
Two arsonists managed to set themselves on fire while attempting to burn down a business that provides immigration services in Bakersfield, CA.
The suspects also reportedly left their phones at the scene, which are now in the possession of law enforcement. pic.twitter.com/5Bk6Fq6yOW
— NowThis (@nowthisnews) January 7, 2023
McCarthy *is* cooked, even if he wins. But the whole party is cooked along with him. No Republicans are strong enough to do a thing besides fall in line & sing along to the tune the January 6th gang is playing
— chatham harrison is tending his garden (@chathamharrison) January 7, 2023
Duh. They’ll say this was a “crucible” or “baptism by fire” or some fawning, idiotic euphemism that ignores the reality of McCarthy’s desperate incompetence. https://t.co/bYBb92uU8d
— Peter Wolf (@peterawolf) January 6, 2023
sab
Republicans in disarray: 6 of their guys couldn’t bring themselves to vote. Childish.
Baud
The vote on the House rules isn’t until Monday. That’s when we’ll know what the GOP caucus will do.
Ken
Good morning, all.
Luke Watson has a point, but they haven’t voted on the rules yet, and I would guess a lot of Representatives will be asking to see them over the weekend. McCarthy might have to back out some of the changes he promised to the terrible twenty. I’m sure they’ll react with all the maturity we’ve come to expect.
evap
House Rule #1: The speaker must fetch coffee for the six who voted present whenever they want it.
Geminid
@Baud: The plan was to vote on the Rules last night. There must be some resisters. One Texas Republican tweeted last night he was a “no” vote.
This could be a busy weekend for Squeaker McCarthy.
Baud
@Geminid:
What can the 20 holdouts do now? If they call for a vote to remove the Speaker, they’ll need Dem votes to prevail. I wonder what the Dems would do?
If McCarthy were removed, what would happen? We now have a House. Would there be an interim Speaker?
RandomMonster
@Geminid: “Squeaker McCarthy” is gold.
sab
I cannot believe that I just laughed about people accidentally setting themselves on fire.
lowtechcyclist
I really believe Biden needs to be ready to say that the debt limit must yield to Section 4 of the Fourteenth Amendment, which says that the validity of that debt shall not be questioned: that if forced to choose between obeying one or the other, he must follow the Constitution, and the United States will continue paying its debts and the interest thereon, whether or not Congress raises the debt limit.
Let them take him to court to nuke the U.S. and global economy if they insist. Make their terrorism as out in the open as possible.
If push really came to shove and the Supreme Court ruled that the debt limit was constitutional, that might really be the point where a President would have to tell the Supreme Court, “good luck in enforcing your ruling.”
Dorothy A. Winsor
I just watched Hakeem Jeffries’ speech from last night. I wonder how many Rs failed to recognize he was using the alphabet.
RandomMonster
It’s nice that they hand the Democrats some leverage.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
Here’s the thing – these assholes are going to act as if they have a mandate, and that is really, fatally bad.
MagdaInBlack
@sab: I did too. It was a ” jfc those fkn morons” laugh. I think that’s allowed.
OzarkHillbilly
If he reneges on the deal he made with them there will be a motion to vacate and we might well end up right back where we started, Fun times for all.
lowtechcyclist
@Baud:
The Dems could just vote ‘present.’ Unless the twenty can find another 92 votes, they’d be unable to remove Kev by themselves. The Dems would only make themselves look bad by voting in favor of removal and effectively participate in the plan to fuck things up. This way, they’d stay on the sidelines and let it be an intramural battle among GOPers.
The inability of the twenty to actually remove Kev would at least make the motion to vacate an empty threat after that. All it would do is make them look weak and silly.
Dorothy A. Winsor
We’re flying to Florida tomorrow evening. It’s 7:34am, and Mr DAW is running around packing. Send help.
Geminid
@Baud: I expect any Republican votes against tbe Rules would come from the opposite end of the caucus. Some people might want to show the 20 radicals that they aren’t the only ones who can play the obstruction game. They could also want to let McCarthy know that he can’t take them for granted.
I expect that the leadership will talk the dissidents down, but maybe not until the actual vote.
There could be drama, though. Instead of Mike Rodgers being restrained from attacking Gaetz, maybe someone will have to prevent Nancy Mace from feeding Boebert a knuckle sandwich:
“How do you like that slider? At least you won’t get salmonella from it!” Mace yells.
Matt McIrvin
@lowtechcyclist: I’m wondering if the Republicans think they can get Trump back in the White House by threatening a default. Just say they’ll shoot the hostage unless the following sequence of events happen:
It wouldn’t work, but they might think it could work. It answers the question “what’s in it for McCarthy”: he thinks he’ll become the man who carried out the version of 1/6/21 that succeeded, and undid the rigged 2020 election. He goes down in the history books!
Spanky
@Dorothy A. Winsor: A man after my own heart.
Geminid
@Matt McIrvin: There are not enough Republican votes to elect Trump Speaker. Many if not most of that caucus want no part of him.
Frankensteinbeck
@OzarkHillbilly:
Or more likely, enough of the less insane R reps won’t vote for it. And the exact nature of the deal is important. Really, crucially important. If the rules let the limit be voted on after a failed attempt to pass a draconian budget, or a one-time exception to the rules can be voted on, or it can be added as an amendment to something, or it can be voted on after the House passes a draconian budget that then dies in the Senate…. Anything like that, and the ‘deal’ is so much meaningless hot air.
EDIT – For that matter, now that he has the gavel, McCarthy can’t be removed unless the Dems want it.
sab
@lowtechcyclist: That would be a Trumpian approach, making people in the executive branch decide between President and Supreme Court. Biden would never let things get to that point, because unlike Trump he and his people understands how things work and how to work the levers of government.
artem1s
I think the House D’s learned a lot during TFG’s first 2 years. Stand back and watch the performance art, and point and ridicule is the best course of action. Remember when ZEGS pulled off his promise to have the House vote to end Obamacare? It’s going to be a year or two of watching the Kevin trying to put out the fires that The Hit Squad starts. It will be scary to watch at times but in the end they can’t do anything permanent without the Senate and WH.
Scout211
Posting this again this morning, both the new rules and an analysis of the new rules are posted here.
Betty
@Dorothy A. Winsor: My husband is the exact opposite. Due to leave for the airport in 90 minutes, and he is out running errands. This is stress.
sab
@Dorothy A. Winsor: My guy wouldn’t even think about packing until tomorow.
Kristine
@Dorothy A. Winsor: That’s way better than what I usually do, which is some useless cleaning or repair task at 930pm when I need to get up at 330am to drive to parking lot/stash car/shuttle to O’Hare. Once I found myself cleaning the top of the refrigerator. Another time, I lost a fave ring down the bathroom sink drain and disassembled the U-bend to retrieve it.
OzarkHillbilly
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Don’t forget the pepper spray. Hope you enjoy yourselves.
Ken
Oh, he’s already found a place in the history books, though you’re right that he has ambitions to be more than a footnote.
prostratedragon
Last night Geminid likened McCarthy’s Speaker bid to a large container ship that had run aground and needed a full moon to have any hope of being refloated; I called it the EverKevin. Note that in fact last night was a full moon.
sab
@artem1s: I like our Squad a lot more than their Squad.
PaulB
I am *so* glad I chose to log off for the night and not watch the final voting extravaganza. How humiliating for McCarthy to lose yet one more vote after promising that he really did have the votes this time.
This is definitely a harbinger of things to come. The dumbest start to the dumbest Congressional term ever.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Betty: @sab: @Spanky: We’re flying home again on Thursday! I could do this with a little carry-on bag. He wants to be prepared for every situation because god forbid he should have to buy a hat or something.
JMG
@Dorothy A. Winsor: This is poor planning on his part. Too early packing increases the chances you’ll forget something important because you’ve put packing into your “already done” mental file. For an evening flight, morning the day of is best. Close enough to be more thorough, enough time to remember things you’ve overlooked.
sab
@prostratedragon: I love that idea: EverKevin the Squeaker of the House.
Baud
Via reddit, neat AI art.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CryptoTea_/status/1611017391709765633
artem1s
they nominated TFG for speaker. He got 4 votes. And Kevin didn’t even get enough votes to win. He had to ‘pay’ people not to vote to end this shit show.
Ken
That makes perfect sense. There is no way I could enjoy a vacation knowing that the ring was in the U-bend. Sleeping would be problematic.
Qrop Non Sequitur
How can you tell there are now zero Republican moderates in the house?
The kkklown kaukkus was making all sorts of demands. Neither these concessions nor the resulting diminution of McCarthy swayed a Republican “of good conscience.” Not a countervailing demand to be heard.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Kristine: We’re flying from Rockford, so no O’Hare, which is good
@OzarkHillbilly: So the pepper spray is for alligators? MAGA people? We’re staying with Mr DAW’s sister, and I don’t think we’ll be doing much. They’re very careful because of COVID
Dorothy A. Winsor
@JMG: My point exactly
RepubAnon
@lowtechcyclist: I’d suggest planning the design for the Trillion Dollar coin as a backup
sab
@Kristine: On the other hand, one of my sisters never cleans before leaving on trips. One time she came home to an abandoned pizza in the oven that had mice that had died of food poisoning lying beside it.
PaulB
So, one question: how is this a masterful negotiation when he just rolled over and gave them everything they asked for, including requests that hamstring him?
Also, any bets as to how long it will take before he faces the first vote to remove him?
OzarkHillbilly
It’s not about winning, it’s about signaling how easy it will be for them to fuck up the GOPs plans for this Congress (it could just as well be the rules vote). If all 20 of the Quazy Quacus votes present on any issue, it’s dead in the water. (presuming all DEMs will vote against whatever the GOP is trying to pass). McCarthy is a hostage to their every whim.
Betty
@Dorothy A. Winsor: At least he’s home now and nearly finished packing!😀 I tend to be more like your husband timewise but do prefer to travel light. Have a good trip. No delays, cancellations or other surprises!
OzarkHillbilly
@Dorothy A. Winsor: The MAGAs, you have to be careful, they are all rabid and they will bite.
Geminid
@OzarkHillbilly: There are also 20 some Republicans who need to carry purple districts in 2024 (those that don’t just retire). They will not want to be held hostage to that radical faction’s every whim.This will be a very problematic dynamic for the Republican leadership.
Cameron
@prostratedragon: The only ship that comes to mind is the S.S.Minnow.
rikyrah
Good Morning, Everyone😊😊😊
Kristine
@sab: Wow.
I can’t imagine the smell. Or maybe I can.
Also, how did the mice get in the oven? I know they’re chewers and can fit through very small gaps, but damn.
Ken
Or any seven, so it’s even worse.
Though I’m sure McCarthy wouldn’t bring anything to a vote unless he’d done his count, and knew it would pass.
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
artem1s
@lowtechcyclist:
I think he has the chops to defy them but probably won’t have to. The 1% don’t care if the country is in debt or about the debt ceiling. But they do care about protecting their power and assets. a default or world wide depression would leave them with nothing or worse, standing in bread lines with the poors, and they know it.
Baud
@Ken:
Of course not. Now that this experience has taught him how to govern.
Ksmiami
@lowtechcyclist: mint the fucking coin.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Not generally a fan of AI art, but those were great. An impressive performance.
OzarkHillbilly
@Geminid: Yep. It’s gonna be a shit show.
Qrop Non Sequitur
Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more. Pelosi should be taking notes…
lowtechcyclist
@sab:
I’m not so sure the levers are where they’ve been anymore.
Remember, all the House has to do to fuck up the global economy is: nothing.
It’s really easy to do nothing, and it’s really hard to make people do something if they want to do nothing.
What leverage does Biden have to make the Republicans do something if they don’t want to do it?
The rules have been rewritten. Remember that rule that 218 Representatives could force a bill to the floor, regardless of what the leadership wants? Is it in the new rules that they’ll vote on, come Monday?
If not, there’s no lever there. Oopsie.
Look, it would be Trumpian for Biden to say, I’m going to have Treasury keep paying our debts anyway. But what would it be to say, “the Supreme Court has ruled that the U.S. and global economy must be nuked, so I’m just going to go along with it”?
People keep saying Biden won’t mint the trillion-dollar platinum coin. And they may be right, because it’s basically a trick way out. But it IS a way out, and that may ultimately be his only avenue to avoid the choice between disobeying the Supreme Court and nuking the economy.
My point is, this is serious shit, and there really are a limited number of alternatives here. It’s important to understand what the choices are, because we may be headed to a place where all the choices are bad. And if we get there, which bad choice is the least bad? If they’re all bad, you’ve still got to choose.
OzarkHillbilly
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA… 10,000 unemployed comedians and here you are giving it away for free. ;-)
PaulB
@Baud: Yeah, of all the dumb things McCarthy has said over the last few days, this was definitely the dumbest:
Right up there with his assertion that he could count.
Nicole
@Dorothy A. Winsor: This is not apropos of the thread, but I didn’t want to forget to thank you for recommending The Thursday Murder Club on your Twitter; I am halfway through and enjoying it immensely. I would not have picked it up otherwise; so glad I saw your tweet. :)
(On thread-related note, props to the poster above for “Squeaker McCarthy”; I can think of him as nothing else now.)
WaterGirl
@Ken:
Good one!
He did proudly announce after vote 13 that he would win vote 14: “Because I counted.”
So we have it on good authority that he at least understands that counting is a thing.
Baud
Every time the Internet talks about the damn coin, we hand McCarthy a weapon against Biden.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
He probably started counting at zero. Common mistake.
Gin & Tonic
@sab: If it takes more than a half-hour to pack, you’re doing it wrong.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Nicole: Thanks for letting me know. I’m leading a bookclub discussion of it next month, so I’m encouraged that maybe they’ll like it too. They hated the last book I brought in, Circe.
In the meantime, I’m almost done with Demon Copperhead. What a phenomenal book. I’d never recommend it for the book club because it’s long, but wow.
Qrop Non Sequitur
@Baud: The remblings of internet weirdos famously being a concern when governing.
Wait, this is a space for Democrat-affiliated weirdos. They are concerned with our posts. Quick, delete your accounts before Bill Maher sees.
Qrop Non Sequitur
That’s how the Computer Science department taught me to do it.
Ken
No need for notes, there will be textbooks written about this experiment in leadership by abject submission.
Cameron
@PaulB: Losing a bunch of votes within your own party over the course of a couple of days teaches you how to govern? If only I had known it was that easy….
Matt McIrvin
@artem1s:
One thing I realized during the Great Recession is that a lot of our Masters of the Universe actually like recessions and depressions. They lose a lot on paper, but they actually gain because they get tremendous power over millions of desperate people who will do anything to pay the bills. I’ve been seeing rich guys drooling over the prospect of a new recession beating some sense into all these entitled Great Resigners and quiet quitters.
Now maybe this kind of crash would be worse for them because their holdings are in dollars backed by the US government. But on the other hand it might make the crypto bros rich again.
Ken
Exactly. You should always have your go-bag ready, with clothing, toiletries, Krugerrands, and three fake passports.
WaterGirl
@Baud: hahaha
I would be willing to bet that Squeaker doesn’t even understand that you actually do start counting at zero for some things.
WaterGirl
@Gin & Tonic: Does that include time to do the laundry when something you planned to take is dirty?
MomSense
How is it freaking possible that Gaetz is still in office? He and his associate used Venmo and cash app for their sex trafficking FFS.
Ohio Mom
I don’t think the police really need the cell phones of those two arsonists to find them, if they are still alive, I am sure by now they are in a hospital burn unit.
OzarkHillbilly
@Gin & Tonic: It all depends on what you are packing for.
Frankensteinbeck
@OzarkHillbilly:
Except when it’s something the Democrats want, in which case it takes, what, 7 Republicans to make the bomb throwers irrelevant? There are damned few things you’ll get that many crossover votes for. The debt ceiling and passing a functioning budget are two of them. McCarthy’s gavel is also in no danger whatsoever if he can convince the Democrats he’s worth keeping. The last two years also demonstrated that there are other things you can peel a few Rs off for, and that McCarthy doesn’t have control over the less insane end of his caucus either.
The only danger I see right now is that the so-called-moderate Republicans are willing to kick the can down the road and vote for a document that later will make it physically impossible to vote for a reasonable budget or raising the debt ceiling. They are demonstrably cowards that way. That risk is greatly reduced because McCarthy’s deal gave away things that really piss off the less-insane Rs, and he has to get both sides to vote on the rules package.
PaulB
See, that’s why McCarthy is Speaker of the House and you aren’t. Now that you’ve learned this invaluable lesson, though, the sky’s the limit. Just think of how you can apply this in your everyday life.
Nicole
@Dorothy A. Winsor: I’ll be surprised if they don’t like it; the book has made me laugh out loud in several places already. It’s a really fun read.
OverTwistWillie
@Ken:
George Santos, a.k.a. Miguel Sanchez, a.k.a. Dr. Nguyen van Thoc…
Spanky
I was promised a taco truck on the corner.
I need a breakfast taco.
OverTwistWillie
@PaulB:
It’s like Apollo 13.
What do we have that works….?
I’ll have to get back to you on that Kev.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl:
Febreze.
OverTwistWillie
@Ken:
George Santos, a.k.a. Miguel Sanchez, a.k.a. Dr. Nguyen van Thoc
The Thin Black Duke
@Matt McIrvin: Are the zillionaires going to pay their guards in paper money? I think the 1% know how expendable they become if the global economy goes boom.
OverTwistWillie
So there is the special in VA 4, the curious case of the esteemed gentleman from the great state of Brazil, and SC 1 just got kicked by the courts.
That’s skating on some really thin ice.
ETtheLibrarian
Was wondering if Kev was gonna make it. Over privileged entitled white man is still a powerful force even in its weakest form
I will say that I think this will ultimately (and soon) be a be careful what you wish for and when the gods wish to punish us thing. I for one won’t feel sorry for him and his ulcers.
schrodingers_cat
So what happened to the grand unified theory of Republican stupidity that I kept hearing on the interwebs and here too? That this Speaker vote fiasco was a masterplan of obstruction and exactly what the Rs wanted.
Geminid
@MomSense: Gaetz and his buddly Josh Greenberg did not tag the transactions as for payment for an illegal act. But the biggest problem for prosecutors is that the victim will not testify; Gaetz’s wealthy father probably found a way to pay her off.
Their second biggest problem is that Greenberg was himself a one man crime wave, and most of his crimes involved deception of some sort. Greenberg’s testimony plus an ambiguous payment record would not support a conviction, maybe not even an indictment.
PaulB
@schrodingers_cat: I didn’t hear that one. What I heard was that this was democracy at its finest, with members disagreeing and substantive discussions happening daily, as compared to the commie lockstep voting of the Democratic caucus.
That one didn’t last because it was so obviously false, not to mention stupid. They tried to make it work for a couple of days and then gave up because it was obvious that nobody was buying it.
Gin & Tonic
@Ken: … and a couple of burner phones.
Nelle
@Nicole: I enjoyed this and the two sequels. You have more to look forward to!
Immanentize
Think of the Democrats as rescued beavers?:
MomSense
@Geminid:
Yeah but the payment amounts line up exactly. I think the third man in their three musketeers friendship, Gov. DeSantis, must also be pulling some strings. I just despise them all so much.
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodingers_cat: Same as any other theory premised on the fear that the GOP is 10′ tall and bullet proof. Personally, I think this shows that they don’t actually know what they want as a caucus and will have trouble doing anything. Come debt ceiling time, 10-20 Rs will defect to vote with Dems to raise it. And there will be nothing McCarthy can do about it.
OzarkHillbilly
@Frankensteinbeck: So in other words we are in agreement that the House Rs are fucked. You say it’s because of the tomatoes while I say it’s because of the tomahtoes.
Geminid
@Matt McIrvin: But it’s not just the wealthiest people influencing the Republicans. The entire complex of Chambers of Commerce- national, state and local, and their networks among professionals and small business owners- will lobby members heavily against allowing a default. These folks are still a force in the Republican party, and have been for longer than these wealthy ideologues like Mercer and Theil.
The people I’m talking about here are constituents. Republican office holders need their support more than the support of the fickle plutocrats
JMG
@lowtechcyclist: There’s an old poker saying that applies equally well to politics. “A loaded six-gun beats any hand in the deck.” If Biden is willing to bypass the Congress by any means necessary to keep the US paying its debts and 34 Senators are willing to back his play, there’s nothing the GOP or the Supreme Court can do about it. I do not believe most voters would support what they regard as technicalities over crashing values of their 401(k)s and cuts/suspension of their Social Security and Medicare payments.
Eunicecycle
@Omnes Omnibus: but isn’t it true he could just prevent it from coming to the floor? I thought they weren’t going to allow discharge petitions. But maybe the debt ceiling is different.
Geminid
@MomSense: The payments line up, but can you prove what they are for? Not without the testimony of the victim, I think.
But this investigation may not be over yet.
Captain C
@PaulB:
Isn’t that something they already should have known? Also, I don’t believe him.
PaulB
Wasn’t there a reporter who insisted that several sources were telling him (on the second day) that many Democrats weren’t going to bother sticking around after the first few rounds, that they would leave the chamber since this was all such a waste of time.
How’d that work out for him?
Omnes Omnibus
@Eunicecycle: Let’s see what rules actually pass. Then, we look for ways to work them.
Nettoyeur
@lowtechcyclist: The Trillion Dollar Coin could become a Thing.
JML
@PaulB: well, he took a shot at the Democrats and pushed the idea of “Democrats in Disarray”, so regardless of what actually happened I’m guessing he got promoted…
danielx
Speaker and Doormat-at-large McCarthy. I think it has a ring to it.
Another Scott
What happens is going to depend on the circumstances at the time.
The US has technically defaulted in the past. Some paperwork wasn’t done on time sometime in the ’80s, IIRC, and interest on some bonds wasn’t paid for a few days. Interest rates ticked up a tiny bit as a result.
The GQPers holding up raising the debt limit for a few days, like they did today with Qevin, wouldn’t end the world. It would set money on fire for no reason and make things more expensive in the future. But there’s a huge amount of Treasury bonds out there and people who have them aren’t going to set them on fire or dump them in the trash if they don’t get their interest payment on time.
We need to be clear eyed about consequences. The debt ceiling is not worth cutting important social programs. We can find a way around their damage when we are back in power.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
gene108
@MomSense:
None of the ladies involved are willing to testify. Greenberg isn’t credible enough to be the lone witness. He’s sketchy.
gene108
@The Thin Black Duke:
You overestimate their common sense. From some of the reactions of the Masters of the Universe during the Great Recession, they truly believe their jobs are what drive the economy and keep everyone else employed. They are far too self-centered to realize what’s coming until the mob drags them out by force.
Also, the ones that are politically active are diehard Republicans. They’ve set hundreds of millions of dollars of their money on fire to remake the Republican Party to what it is today. They are savants, who were good at one thing and were handsomely rewarded for it.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: That has the most horrible scent, that would give me a coughing fit. But then I am allergic to most scented things.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat:
I can answer that for myself.
As I get more data, a situation becomes more clear, and when that happens rational people can begin to see something differently than they saw it before.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: You would never survive as a single/divorced dude.
Leslie
@Kristine: I once washed a contact lens down the drain. (Semi-permeable, so it survived the trip.) I did the same thing to get it back.
Anyway
@Omnes Omnibus:
The speaker has to bring up the vote for the debt ceiling, right? Random members just can’t do it.
Matt McIrvin
@The Thin Black Duke: Chick-Fil-A pays them in food.
Omnes Omnibus
@Eunicecycle: He has no spine. That can work both ways. Or we can all just panic and assume the US as we know it is over. In my view, we didn’t survive Trump to be defeated by this poltroon.
ETA: As I said above, let’s see what rules pass and then figure out how to work them to our advantage.
Ksmiami
@Baud: if it’s good enough for Paul Krugman, it’s good enough for me
Ksmiami
@JMG: forget 34 senators, he’d get like 76 of them… and most Americans don’t want to fuck with our full faith and credit as it goes to the heart of our strength.
WaterGirl
@PaulB: Garbage in, garbage out. Look at that tweet that someone posted, maybe it was from Maggie.
If you read it carefully, it says that sources close to Trump say that Trump got them to fall into line.
I mean, seriously, how does she even have a job? (rhetorical question, we all know the answer)
Geminid
@Anyway: It looks like random members can bring up a vote to remove the Speaker, though. If there is the imminent prospect of a default, five Republicans might decide they’re better off putting the House under new management.
Elizabelle
@Omnes Omnibus:
Just had to see that again.
The LA Times’ breaking news alert said McCarthy “won” — their apostrophes. That and “Squeaker” McCarthy are the tacks to take.
MagdaInBlack
@WaterGirl: Isn’t that how it’s supposed to work? Never changing your belief regardless of additional information would make you a……….republican.
Captain C
@gene108: I recall reading somewhere of disaster planning consultants talking about having their billionaire clients asking how they could keep their security forces under their own control once governments and money systems had collapsed. I think the answer is, “you probably can’t.”
Eunicecycle
@Omnes Omnibus: After I typed my comment I thought, “Hell we survived Trump even when Rs had the Presidency and both House and Senate. We will survive this!” It’s just sad that little positive will get done.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: +1
We need to remember that there have always been crazy factions in US politics. The Constitution itself is a result of trying to satisfy crazy factions. There are roadblocks to progress, but also roadblocks for factions that want to burn it all down. The TT20 aren’t the only ones who can study the rules and find ways to bend them to get what they want – or prevent their opponents from getting what they want.
Yes, unless control changes hands in the coming months, the next couple of years are going to be difficult in the House. There are no magic beans or incantations or One Weird Trick that will easily fix it. But we’re not doomed.
Eyes on the prize.
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@MagdaInBlack: That’s what I thought!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
The largest donors to McCarthy’s leadership PAC are hedge-funders Ken Griffin and Stephen Schwartzman, also Timothy Mellon, an “investor”. I’m guessing they don’t want to see a debt limit crisis. People like Schwartzman and Griffin may even send Sean Spicer and his dollies down to Mar-A-Lago so they can explain to trump:
Firethe collapse of the credit of US government bad! so he can explain it to Boebert and Gosar. It might increase the numbers of the Bacon-Fitzpatrick caucus all the way to six.Another Scott
@Another Scott:
The Day the United States Defaulted on Treasury Bills (from 1989):
(Recall that 100 “basis points” = 1%)
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
@Another Scott:
To some extent, I’d imagine treasury rates have already priced in some of the risk of GOP control.
ETA: The notion of a permanent increase seems silly though. There’s always a discount rate applied to time.
Citizen Alan
@Another Scott: I think the biggest problem is that your explanation of the effects of a default uses a lot of really big words for a nation where the majority of voters read at the 6th grade level.
Kathleen
Sanjeevs
Lot of parallels between the Freedom Caucus and the ERG group in the U.K. Conservatives. The ERG were the minority within the party who wouldn’t compromise.
They succeeded in getting the hardest possible Brexit. With almost zero support from the business community of the U.K.
Kathleen
@Omnes Omnibus: I would not be surprised if I learned Dem leadership has been gaming out different scenarios/strategies and possible outcomes since the mid terms.
Layer8Problem
@Captain C:
“So, I’ll only have half of infinity on the spreadsheet, but I’ll be an even bigger Mover and Shaker; it’s the principle you see! And my security’s always going to be loyal. You guys will always be loyal, right?”
(In bored monotone) “Of course boss, semper fi, absolutely, take it to the bank.”
“And no rabble or riff-raff can get to me when the Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome stuff starts, right?”
“Oh no boss, unpossible, you’re surrounded by an impenetrable wall of steel, uh-huh.”
Omnes Omnibus
@Kathleen: Of course they have. They are actually good at what they do.
Another Scott
@Baud: I haven’t read the paper and am not an economist so I dunno. Counterfactuals are hard and usually wrong. But it seems reasonable that as long as people remember the default, they’re going to ask for a bit higher interest rate to make up for the additional risk. Whether they’ll get it is another question, of course.
There’s a vast amount of liquidity in the world economy, probably too much (and that’s been a big problem with the world economy for a long time). A US default for a few days/weeks in 2023 would be much less damaging than one in the 1970s because the EU and China and even India can probably make up for the temporary liquidity loss in ways they couldn’t back then (when the US was a larger fraction of the world economy). But it would still be setting money on fire for no reason and damaging to the US, even if the damage were “small”…
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Kathleen: Sean Patrick Maloney still has some stuffing left. Maybe we can whack on him some more.
More seriously, how do you like Mr. Landsman, your new Democratic Representative so far?
Renie
@Scout211: Saw this “Ethics Reform. Subsection (g) directs the Committee on Ethics to adopt rules which provide for a process to receive complaints directly from the public.”
Am I interpreting this to mean the public can send in complaints about George Santos?
Jeffg166
@Captain C: Read a similar if not the same article and the futurist said to the rich to make friends with their security.
H.E.Wolf
@Omnes Omnibus:
@Eunicecycle:
@Another Scott:
Amen to what all y’all are saying!
In 2017 – also a dire situation for the wellbeing of the country – we turned out in droves for *everything*. Some of the worst outcomes (attempted “Muslim ban”) were derailed when people showed up in opposition.
Nonviolent ferocity and grassroots organizing are a formidable combination. I look to the example of the US Civil Rights movement when I need some guidance on what to do in tough times.
Also, high voter turnout in support of Democratic candidates is a powerful statement. The next Congressional election is VA-04, on Feb. 21, 2023. You bet the Republicans are interested in how *big* a shellacking their candidate will get… and I’m sure Balloon Juice can provide some shellac toward this effort.
Shoulder to shoulder into the fray! :)
Kathleen
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes they are. We are so fortunate to have the level of intelligence, courage and integrity we have in the House and Senate.
Baud
@Renie:
To them, the public means Republicans.
Kathleen
@Geminid: Well I do not like his vow to not take PAC money and willingness to work with Rethugs to negotiate deal for Speaker. Just personal peeves. But I have confidence that he is attuned to what we need and will work tirelessly to support us. Plus he’s a smart guy and ran a great campaign
That’s what’s more important than my pet peeves.
evodevo
@Kristine: Believe me, it’s very easy for mice to take up residence in your average floor model range….after suffering for years with infestations, I turned our new stove upside down and used metal mesh to cover EVERY opening. So far, so good…
Scout211
@Renie: I was wondering just how that would work in the House. I’m thinking that it was more to allow the rabid MAGA base to bring complaints against Biden and the Dems so that more hearings can focus on conspiracy theories.
But it would also invite complaints against Republicans from the public. The plan to gut the ethics committee would make it easy for the Republicans to table any complaints from the public about Republicans, though.
ETA: or what Baud said with fewer words.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud:
Let us surprise them. Cry havoc and let slip the K-pop kids.
CaseyL
@Ken: ICWYDT.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@evodevo: /clicks up through thread, shudders and adds inspecting stove to list of Saturday chores…/
Geminid
@Kathleen: Marcy Kaptur and Mary Peltola also said they were open to talking to Republicans about a compromise Speaker. But they never would have made a deal without a green light from their leadership. So I just took this a sort of gamesmanship.
My Rep talked a lot about working across the aisle too, when she wasn’t talking about defending women’s rights and crushing insurrectionists. I noticed Mr. Jeffries talking about it last night.
We might as well get used to it. Some Democrats don’t like to hear this talk, but Independents lap it up and, like it or not, your and my Representatives will need votes from Independents to be reelected.
The Thin Black Duke
I think one of the factors which helped drive the turnout of the youts during the midterms is it’s a demographic that has never experienced the phenomenon known as a “moderate Republican”. So when the nutjobs in the House are wasting everybody’s time babbling about Hunter Biden’s “dick pic”, I think young people are going to be pissed off at the cesspool the GOP is trying to turn America into. Climate Change isn’t an abstraction. Crippling student debt isn’t an abstraction. Never being able to leave your parents basement because you can’t afford rent isn’t an abstraction.
Uncle Cosmo
@sab:
I’m very glad you like it. Several threads (and several more failed votes) before this one, I referred to Qevin as “Squeaker of the House,” and no one seemed to notice. (Just FTR.)
Geminid
@Uncle Cosmo: Well, we notice now, and go Ravens! I bet it’s a pretty day up in Baltimore.
StringOnAStick
@Baud: Yes, Treasuries have priced in some risk. There’s a reason that you can get 5-7 year annuities from A rated firms at 5% and even slightly better currently.
frosty
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Here’s help. Get an app called Packing List. Set up sub lists for type of trip and sub-sub-lists for items. Then start filling it in as you pack the next couple of trips. Example:
Days and Weekends: –Everywhere; –Day Trip; -Weekend
Other main categories: Vacation; Camping
I don’t forget things any more.
Another Scott
@Uncle Cosmo: 👍
Cheers,
Scott.
Soprano2
@Kristine: You’re lucky it was there. At city sewer we once used our TV camera in the sewer to find a woman’s wedding ring; they flushed it to a manhole and fished it out with a net. We made Yahoo News! One of our cleaning crews used to look for rings in the sewer; they’d show us what they found. I think they sold the gold and stones for cash, although I know one man took some of the stones and had a nice necklace made for his wife. It’s easy to sanitize gemstones!
The Lodger
@sab: I want you to know I immediately got up and checked inside my oven.
The Lodger
@PaulB: Just because it’s messy doesn’t make it democracy.
Kathleen
@Geminid: You are right and I support looking for bipartisan support in general. Sherrod Brown and Rob Portman worked very hard to pass the infrastructure bill. Landsman will not do anything without checking leadership. That video with Biden, Brown, Portman, DeWine, McConnell and Beshear at the Brent Spence Bridge announcement was a bipartisan love fest which I appreciated. But I felt like they were sending a message.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Kathleen: I was a bit surprised to see Portman there, but Joe Biden is a very nice guy, and it takes a lot for him to give up on a friend. At least it wasn’t Vance.
And I will note once again, Mitch McConnell doesn’t seem as invested in making this Democrat a one-term POTUS as he was the last time. I wonder why…
Geminid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Portman was one of the architects of the Senate’s Infrastructure Bill
As for McConnell, it’s possible that Trump changed McConnell’s calculus.
Uncle Cosmo
@Geminid: Thanky kindly. Pretty fair football weather at the moment (47ºF at 6:16 PM) but that’s almost irrelevant inasmuch as Poe’s Crows play in Cincy tomorrow, and are odds on to get humiliated by the Puddytats, and then will likely have to play them again on the same field the week after and get humiliated again. Cumulative score something like 79-10. Lamar Jackson has probably played his last game in purple & black after our imbecile coaching staff frittered away his last 3 years here because they can’t find their arses with both hands.
Iron City
@Qrop Non Sequitur: But they also taught you to count in Octal. Can Rethuglicans get their heads around that?