Before we really get into tonight’s update we need to have a chat about what went on in the comments last night. For all of us here – front pagers, regular or infrequent commenters, lurkers, and just plain old readers – unless you’re reading this from Ukraine*, we are now 318 days into watching the Russian re-invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s stalwart defense from some distance. Each and every one of us is going to have different responses to what we’re watching, even to different things on different days. But we are fortunate here to have a bunch of regular commenters, some infrequent commenters, and some lurkers who will occasionally comment when they feel the need who have all been to war or prepared to do so and were, fortunately, spared that burden. Each of those of us who fit into either of these categories have our own personal and professional lessons learned from the wars we participated in or prepared for that never happened. I am not saying that those of you who don’t have these experiences have to agree with those of us who have all the time, that you can’t argue or disagree with us, but when someone like Grumpy Old Railroader or Ruckus or any of the others chime in from their experiences, it behooves us all to listen.
I get that this is hard. Our involvement in this war is in observing it, in supporting elected and appointed officials that will support Ukraine in its defense, and in donating money. As a former colleague would say: war is corrosive. And it eats at all of us in different ways. In my case it is always wondering if there wasn’t something more I could have done when this war began in 2014 when I was in a position to, perhaps, have done so as the senior civilian advisor to the Commanding General of US Army Europe. Intellectually I know I could not have, that I did not give inaccurate inputs, but I still have what ifs aplenty.
To finish this off: everyone needs to dial it back. Eliminationist comments need to stop. Listen to the people here that have actually experienced war and who are trying to provide you the benefit of their hard won experience that things aren’t as simple as they often seem. Especially when one is typing a comment from the safety of their residence well away from the war. I’m not writing these updates, which are basically an unpaid part time job, so you all can devolve into rhetorical savagery in the comments and/or lash out at each other. Get a grip or you can find somewhere else to do those things because there won’t be anymore update posts on the war. I would like to believe I won’t have to do another one of these chats again.
* If you are reading this from Ukraine, please know this: you are not alone! We are here, we are watching, we are donating, and we are all looking for ways to do more to support you! If we have anything to say about it you will not be ignored, forgotten, or abandoned!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, the first liberation of our warriors from Russian captivity took place this year. 50 Ukrainians returned home. 33 officers, 17 – privates and sergeants. Among them are defenders of the Kyiv and Donetsk regions, Mariupol and the south of the country. Soldiers of the army, National Guard, territorial defense, navy, border guards.
Our team works without a single break to free Ukrainians. Today I want to thank them once again: Budanov, Yermak, Malyuk, Usov, Lubinets and others.
I am especially grateful to those of our units who replenish the exchange fund. Everyone who captures the enemy on our land, gives an opportunity to return freedom to some Ukrainians.
I would also like to note the success of our Air Forces. Since the beginning of this day, three helicopters and also drones have been shot down. Well done, guys! Thank you for the consistent demilitarization of the aggressor state.
The situation on the frontline has not changed significantly in the first week of the year. Heavy fighting continues in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions – every hotspot in these areas is well known.
Bakhmut is holding out against all odds. And although most of the city is destroyed by Russian strikes, our warriors repel constant attempts at Russian offensive there. Soledar is holding out. Although there is even more destruction there and it is extremely hard…
There is no such piece of land near these two cities, where the occupier would not have given his life for the crazy ideas of the masters of the Russian regime. This is one of the bloodiest places on the frontline.
Today, commander of the direction, General Syrskyi, visited the troops defending the outskirts of Bakhmut and Soledar.
He awarded the warriors for their resilience. On the spot, he organized the steps necessary to strengthen our defense. In particular, transfer of additional units. And intensification of fire on the invaders.
We should understand that all our positions, all our actions in defense are interconnected, and the resilience and effectiveness of actions at the front in general depends on the resilience and effectiveness of actions at each point of the front.
I thank all our defenders who act in this way, who realize that their personal resilience, their personal strength and effectiveness give resilience, strength and effectiveness to the whole state. We defend the whole state, wherever the battles for it take place.
We are preparing for diplomatic events that we have planned for this week. We expect good news for our country, good decisions that will further strengthen the defense.
The world has seen again these days that Russia lies even when it draws attention to the situation at the front with its own statements. Russian shelling of Kherson with incendiary ammunition right after Christmas. Strikes on Kramatorsk and other cities of Donbas – exactly on civilian objects and exactly when Moscow reported on the alleged “silence” of their army. More threats of Russian officials to Europe and the world…
All this was when Moscow was talking about the alleged “truce”.
No attempt by Russia to manipulate diplomacy and politics will ever work again.
Only the strengthening of Ukraine, only the successes of Ukraine, only the restoration of territorial integrity of Ukraine, only the return of all our people from Russian captivity are the guarantees of peace. We are bringing it closer every day.
Glory to all who fight and work for the victory of our state!
Glory to all who help our state!
Eternal memory to all who gave their lives for our state and our independence!
Glory to Ukraine!
Another 50 Ukraine service members have been released from captivity via exchange procedure. pic.twitter.com/4frdDSUdXm
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 8, 2023
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Izium and Bakhmut:
IZIUM AXIS/ 1420 UTC 8 JAN / RU conducted two small scale attacks across the H-26 HWY in the last 24 hours. NW of Svatove UKR forces broke up an attack on Stelmakhivka. Yesterday UKR Khartia Battalion is reported to have defeated the 22nd Guard Spetsnaz Brig near Kryvoshyivka. pic.twitter.com/HKjRbp285U
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 8, 2023
BAKHMUT /1400 UTC 8 JAN/ UKR troops have advanced across the rail right-of-way and are engaging RU units in the west of Soledar’s urban area. UKR reports 21 aviation strikes missions were flown, including SEAD sorties that interdicted 3 RU surface to air missile complexes. pic.twitter.com/hiv2jM3U0v
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 8, 2023
2/2 Most of these operators were traced to Kolomna region, where the MOD operates the 924th Drone Center. Ukrainian investigators even got two of them on the phone. Common thread – tons of data on social media that enabled a lot of facts to come together.
— Samuel Bendett (@SamBendett) January 5, 2023
This one’s for TaMara!
«Mad Ducks» with mad skills. pic.twitter.com/YR681tkYdV
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 8, 2023
Hail Ceaser!
Historians say that Gaius Julius Caesar slept only 3 hours a day and worked at night.
Ukrainian CAESAR is following in that tradition. pic.twitter.com/S4p9F8br2e— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 8, 2023
For you railway enthusiasts:
Luhansk partisans destroy railway lines to disrupt the supply of Russian arms and troops to Ukraine
The part of the line was also used by invaders to transport looted grain to Russia, said Head of Luhansk Reg Mil Adm Serhii Haidaihttps://t.co/L8foLgp1YI 📷by UkrInform pic.twitter.com/L24McfmjJR
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) January 7, 2023
Serhii Haidai, the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, has said that partisans of the occupied Luhansk Oblast damaged railway lines to disrupt the supply of Russian arms and troops to Ukraine.
“On the evening of 6 January near Shchastia city, an improvised explosive device was employed to destroy a railway line between the city of Luhansk and the village of Lantrativka,” he added.
The part of the line was also used by invaders to transport looted grain to Russia.
Some final, serious thoughts before we finish for the evening:
We have had decades of peaceful development stolen, we have had our children stolen, and hundreds of thousands of children stolen by russia.
Pollution of nature and water, destruction of protected parish funds, and destruction of thousands of animals, and birds.
— пані Гастон 🇺🇦 (@ermineah) January 5, 2023
Yes, they will get their 100,000 coffins of murderers and rapists home, yes, they will have fewer tanks and weapons. Yeah, they have less money.
Their houses are fine, their industries are fine, their land is fine, and their people are still living as if nothing had happened.
— пані Гастон 🇺🇦 (@ermineah) January 5, 2023
I live every day with the thought that our people are dying, our people are losing their homes, losing their families, losing their hometowns, losing everything, health, sanity, and a sense of peace.
It is unfair. It should not be like this. And all of it because of russia.
— пані Гастон 🇺🇦 (@ermineah) January 5, 2023
That’s enough for today.
Your daily Patron!
Children in #Ukraine are at risk of mines and unexploded ordnance. With the help of our Goodwill AmbassaDog @PatronDsns, UNICEF and the State Emergency Service of Ukraine are teaching children how to protect themselves from this hazard. @SESU_UAhttps://t.co/lsHJsrzGgd
— UNICEF Ukraine (@UNICEF_UA) January 8, 2023
According to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SES), around 30 per cent of the territory of Ukraine may potentially be mined as a result of hostilities. Explosive objects can be found in rivers, forests and fields, on the roadsides, in hospitals, in residential buildings and playgrounds, and even in children’s toys.
To prevent injuries and deaths, SES rescuers in Chernihivska region teach young Ukrainians about the importance of following safety rules in case of a possible encounter with mines and shells. Today, they have a very famous assistant – Patron, a bomb-sniffing Jack Russell Terrier, who helps them during their official tasks.
Patron has quickly become a mascot for the SES, working together with sappers and pyrotechnics from Chernihiv to help find over 300 explosive objects. This year, he earned legions of fans, and was recently awarded a special title – Goodwill Dog – from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in Ukraine for the first time in the history of the organization.
Patron’s owner is Mykhailo Iliev, the head of the SES pyrotechnic works group in the Chernihivska region. He and his wife Iryna never imagined that any of this would happen when they adopted a white and brown puppy.
At first, Patron ran for sticks, worked with a dog handler and was obsessed with cheese. But after February 24, he expanded his skill set by finishing a specialized training programme. Since then, he has been assisting Mykhailo in demining.
Patron often works seven days a week. As well as his mine detection work, he and Mykhailo visit communities to teach children to be careful and follow the rules in case they discover an unknown object: “Do not approach! Do not touch! Call 101!”
Ukrainian children can already tell the different types of ordnance and mines apart, and they know how missiles sound. But the responsibility for informing them about the threat lies with adults, both parents and teachers.
Thankfully, the four-legged sapper Patron is ready to help.
“Even before February 24, we informed people about mine safety,” says Iryna, spokeswoman for the SES Office in Chernihivska region. “From now on, we do it together with Patron, explaining how a mine works and explodes and what is the main danger of it. Kids will not get this information through dull lessons with people in uniform. We make children think that they can talk to Patron, and thus they grasp information better.”
There’s a lot of pictures of Patron at the link, as well as an appeal by UNICEF for funds for Ukraine. Click through, enjoy the pics, and you donate if you’re so inclined.
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Забув похвалитися своїми новорічними подарунками! #песпатрон
The caption machine translates as:
I forgot to brag about my New Year’s gifts! #pespatron
Open thread!
James E Powell
Not sure if people have seen this, thought I’d put it here. Gives me warm feelings for our four footed friends.
PBK
Adam, I appreciate every one of these posts and thank you so much for them but especially for your opening remarks today.
skerry
I generally lurk in your posts, Adam. I appreciate the effort you put forth in reporting to us. I’m glad you said what you did in the opening remarks today. It was necessary. I hope everyone listens.
redoubtagain
I read and never comment, but doing so now to thank you for doing this. Eyes on the prize.
PaulB
Can we focus more on what we agree on? I think we pretty much all agree that Russia is the aggressor in this war, that some in their army have committed horrific atrocities, and that they need to be driven out of Ukraine entirely. I think we can also agree that the leaders who have authorized these atrocities and those who carried them out need to be prosecuted to the fullest extent possible.
I think we also pretty much all agree that the U.S. and Europe can and should be doing more to aid Ukraine: more financial aid, more missile defense, more armored vehicles, more drones, more ammunition, more cold weather gear, more medical aid, etc.
Russia has made it clear that they do not intend to stop at conquering Ukraine. Moreover, some of their leaders have stated that they are prepared to commit genocide in Ukraine, and we have seen a policy of “if we can’t have it, then we’ll just destroy it.” We either stop them here, with an unexpectedly effective and resilient Ukrainian army and people to do the hard work for us, or we will be fighting them next year in another location, and another, and another.
The Ukrainians have given us an astonishingly inexpensive way to stop Russia (inexpensive to us; unbelievably expensive to them, in more ways than one). We should damn well be taking advantage of it. It’s the right thing to do, for more than one reason.
But here’s where I stop: to the few of you who want Russia destroyed, up to and including nuclear weapons in Moscow, you have made your position absolutely clear. You don’t need to keep reiterating it over and over again. Instead of focusing on the 10% we don’t agree on, I submit that a more effective use of your time will be to focus on the 90% we do.
Oh, and thank you, Adam, for comments like these and for the updates you provide.
zhena gogolia
Thank you, Adam, I am so grateful for your efforts to inform us.
I pray that the Russians get out, leave every inch of Ukrainian territory, as soon as possible. I know it will take a miracle, but I am praying for that miracle.
CCL
Thank you, Adam. I just read the New Yorker article Trapped in the Trenches by Luke Mogelson. It may have been posted before, but here’s the link which I hope works. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/01/02/trapped-in-the-trenches-in-ukraine
Matt McIrvin
Thanks, Adam, this one’s really good.
Carlo Graziani
I can’t resist rising to the railway bait, as you knew I would…
From a perusal of Google Maps, Shchastia is a suburb of Luhansk city, near the eastern border with Russia. Lantrativka, on the other hand, is about 200 km north, at the point where the remaining functioning north-south rail line crosses into Russia and brings supplies in from Belgorod.
So it looks as if the Ukrainians are telling us that Belgorod is still supplying the war effort as far south as Luhansk, which may mean the fight at Donetsk City as well as the one at Bakhmut. And that cutting that rail line continues to be objective #1 of the UA’s operations in the East, far out-prioritizing the liberation of any named place.
NutmegAgain
@PBK
JanieM
Thanks, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: We can get you help. Blink twice…
lashonharangue
Thanks Adam. And thanks to all the commenters here with military experience who help us civilians understand the impact of war on those who engage in it.
NutmegAgain
I also appreciate the daily updates–a lot. I’m also am grateful for the clarity on boundaries and effort to refocus the conversation.
Traveller
Well, what I would like to thank you for, (besides most everything), is how you bring truly interesting and meaningful context almost ever single day…in these add on’s to your analysis…Today for example, where or how did you find пані Гастон and her Twitter feed?…what she said was all so very meaningful, and apparently she is a very good artist if you go to her Twitter account, (I love the flowers growing out of the typewriter!).
Be that as it may, please don’t let any of this get you down…what you provide and are doing with these daily postings is signifiant and important. So keep on keeping on…
Lastly, I suppose I would like to add, This war has gone on far longer than many of us suspected was possible. Matters seem hopeful at the moment, but I must note that Russia can still entirely win this war with a resultant genocide happening before our very helpless eyes.
With war it isn’t over until it is over, and even then it frequently isn’t over…So all of us in our little ways possible, must keep on keeping on…Supporting Ukraine, here, at home, and there…on now cold battlefields. This war must be won.
ColoradoGuy
Thanks, Adam! Your real-world experience is much appreciated, particularly by this son of a US Foreign Service diplomat (who served in Japan and Hong Kong at the height of the Cold War).
It’s fascinating at this date to see how much of Russia’s crude imperialism during the Cold War days was just Russia acting like it always has for centuries, and that in the end, Communism boiled down to a crackpot religion masquerading as economics. I sometimes wish my Dad was around to see this. (Although he would have been horrified to see the rise of a 2nd Fascist International.)
Geminid
Reports of an agreement for Iran to provide Russia with ballistic missiles started coming out around October 16. This has yet to happen. I wonder if Dr. Silverman would be willing to share any insights as to why the Iranians have held back so far.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: Probably just a coincidence, but “shchastia” means “luck” or “good fortune.”
zhena gogolia
I wish we could have won the House. That that little slimeball Gaetz can even have Zelenskyy’s name in his fetid mouth makes me sick to my stomach.
WaterGirl
Really glad to see this introduction from Adam today. I read part of last night’s Ukraine thread earlier today and thought some of the conversation was most excellent, and some was appalling.
When I read Adam’s “ease up a bit” comment, I was thinking more along the lines of “dial it way back. After you return from your time out.”
NotoriousJRT
May I also give thanks for the effort to provide my Daily Patron, well, daily? I admit that I rather obsessively look for it even though (or perhaps because) I live with his doppelgänger. But I never skip ahead to it. I promise!
Quiltingfool
I am thankful that those who have been in battle, or war adjacent, are willing to share their thoughts. We need to listen and learn from each other.
My quilt guild makes Quilts of Valor. These quilts are offered to all who have served, not just military serving in combat. Several of our members have served in the military. One member said she was never sent to a war zone, but as a military nurse, she saw the effects of war on her patients and that affected her as well.
teakay
Thanks for your thoughtful words, Adam.
My father was a front line medic who served for five years with the Third Armored Division (Spearhead) in WWII . His division was first in the Battle of Saint Lo and the Battle of Ardennes (aka Battle of the Bulge) among others. Like a lot of men who’d witnessed the horrors of war, he spoke little of what he saw but was deeply affected. His four brothers who’d also been in the war would remark that my father saw more action than all the other brothers combined but that he spoke the least about it. He saw that soldiers and war did terrible things and knew that as popular and even necessary as WWII was, no war was a “good war”. My father was awarded the silver star for gallantry.
I am a dedicated lurker who read this blog daily and am very grateful for your posts.
YY_Sima Qian
Thank you Adam for the opening remarks! I will say the quality of exchanges & arguments here on BJ (including in yesterdays’s thread), still far exceeds that of most other places. I certainly appreciate the perspectives & experiences shared. It’s one thing to agree at an intellectual level, but many of the comments had visceral impact.
Hoppie
Thanks much for your updates.
I remain impressed at how successfully the US under Marshall and Truman was able to turn Japan and Germany around, to where those countries are bastions of democracy. Whether it can be done with a nuclear-armed (hence not conventionally defeatable) Russia is a puzzle, but hope remains. There are many decent Russians and recognizing that is part of any possible positive course of action.
TaMara
@Quiltingfool: My dad has two Quilts of Valor and loves them! Shows them off to everyone who comes over to the house.
Sandia Blanca
Thank you, Adam, for the effort and thoughtfulness you put into these reports. My husband and I read them every day, and look at some of the images, although many are too painful to see. (I cannot imagine the pain of witnessing these atrocities daily, as Ukrainians do. My heart goes out to them.) Balloon Juice is a valued source of information for many reasons, and your posts are definitely a huge part of that.
I enjoy President Zelenskyy’s daily remarks, and his wit. Today’s example: referring to the “exchange fund” of prisoners who can be returned to Russia in exchange for Ukrainians. May that fund be increased daily.
Urban Suburbanite
Popular Front has a new video up on the Russian anarchists who have been stepping up their activities within Russia. They have gone from throwing Molotovs into recruiting offices to derailing trains and setting off bombs, and they’ve been coordinating with other anarchist groups in the region. (That ginormous traffic jam of Russian armor early in the invasion was due in part to Belarussian hackers snarling up railway software)
https://youtu.be/1u1lXr1vShI
Gin & Tonic
I wish more of you had some facility with the russian language and could see for yourselves the cesspool that is russian social media. You want to talk about eliminationist rhetoric? You ain’t seen nothin’, folks. VK, Telegram, all genocide, all the time. Hell, a popular TV show on one of the leading networks has hosts and guests openly calling for the extermination of Ukrainians.
Miss Bianca
Thank you, Adam. For everything, as always.
Omnes Omnibus
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
trollhattan
Have wondered about the UXO issue a long while, not just mines but the vast number of duds strewn across the countryside and especially, in the seemingly endless ag fields. How do you farm, not knowing what may lurk? Hell, not only are WWI munitions still found, Civil War relics still show up, some live.
Am sure Vlad would love to have killed 600 Ukraine soldiers in a single strike–as was done to his dudes–but it seems quite improbable Ukraine would decide “Hey, here’s a great idea, let’s house hundreds of troops within missile range.”
I assume that tale was spun for the locals, but to what benefit?
zhena gogolia
@Hoppie: “There are many decent Russians”—not as true as it used to be, as successive waves of decent Russians are either murdered or imprisoned or find it necessary to leave.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
you don’t need Russian to follow Russian social media eliminationist retoric against Ukraine and other nations, there are lots of “translators” on line, Russian Media Monitors.
One does need to keep in mind that they are Fucker Carlson 4.0 state sanctioned broadcasts and online accounts. A-B normal.
Jay
@trollhattan:
there are a bunch of intiatives to send robot tractors with demining equiptment to Ukraine. Even the Cambodian demining groups have come onboard.
It will take time, but it will be done.
Jay
Jay
Jay
#NotAllMobliks,
Adam L Silverman
@Traveller: I found that account and thread via Olga Tokariuk’s. I’ve got a variety of people – many Ukrainians, some not but with lots of time in Ukraine, some just subject matter experts – that I keep an eye on. When they post or link to stuff I think makes sense to deal with here, I include it.
Thanks for the kind words, you’re most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
Everyone is most welcome.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: OTOH, if I may offer some feedback: I think when you referred to Russian soldiers as “Orcs” or used Carthago Delente Est in the Russian context, you were feeding into the dynamic that none of us want to see.
On the former, dehumanizing people who have done horrendous/monstrous deeds actually serve to take away their agency as human beings in carrying out such deeds. Such behavior should serve as warning to us all precisely because they have proven so human through history. We all have the monstrous/bestial part hiding inside of us, we all have the lizard brain, waiting to come to the fore when the circumstances are right (or rather, wrong). The Milgram experiments have already shown that. Dehumanizing those we deplore is human indeed, & satisfying in the moment. However, as you eloquently put in the opening remarks, & others have equally eloquently in comments yesterday, it is something we should avoid feeding, particularly in the internet setting.
On the latter, I have asked you this before when you brought 1st brought it up, but you may have missed it: I understand the logic of of needing to break apart the imperial entity that is the Russian Federation, & I don’t necessarily disagree, but what are you suggesting should be done to actually achieve that outcome? Are you suggesting the US & NATO should make it their policy goal (official or otherwise)? How far do you advise the US/NATO & other willing partners go to attain that goal? Do you think consensus can actually be reached inside of the US policy circles & among NATO & other partner nations to make breaking apart the Russian Federation a/the policy goal? How about mitigating the potential for misery at an extraordinary scale, which tend to follow the break up of such imperial entities, as we have seen in the aftermath of collapse of the Austro-Hungarian, the Ottoman, the Russian (post-1917), the Qing Empires, the Third Reich, the fUSSR & the former Yugoslavia. Likewise w/ the process w/ which European colonial powers withdrew from their colonies, & I am certainly not arguing against decolonization. Or are you merely suggesting that the US & others not try to keep Humpty Dumpty whole, should Russia start to fall apart from centrifugal forces?
The wars & the ethnic cleansing post-WW I, post-WW II, & post-Cold War largely became afterthoughts following those major globe spanning conflagrations, but not to those who suffer through them. A post-collapse scenario in the Russia Federation will be happening where there are over a thousand nuclear warheads in active service in the Russian military, & thousands (tens of thousands?) more in storage. The potential for calamity w/in the former territories of the Russian Federation, & for the calamity to spill over outside of it, is much higher because of the WMDs.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: My best guesstimate is that they haven’t worked out a way to move them without the US or a US ally or partner interdicting them or destroying them.
The Dark Avenger
I think it should be clear now: No fighting in the war thread!
Adam L Silverman
@NotoriousJRT: You’re most welcome. I live in constant fear when his feeds don’t update for a day or two that I’m going to eventually find a post on his feed we don’t want to read. So when I give the dog lanterns attention I keep good thoughts for that JRT with a duck and slipper fetish! And his human too!
Jay
Adam L Silverman
@teakay: You’re most welcome.
Jay
@Jay:
hoisted on the hashtag petard again.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: It’s a fine line between letting people work stuff out via comment and having to reel folks back in.
Adam L Silverman
@Sandia Blanca: You’re most welcome. I actually try to be careful in regard to the video and imagery I post. There’s a lot worse I comb through when putting these posts together.
planetjanet
Adam, thank you for your wise words to refrain from embracing the darker side of humans. It is arrogant to presume to know how you will react when fighting for your own survival. We all hope we stay on the path of our angels, but we can’t truly know. I was very grateful for Grumpy Old Railroader, Ruckus, Omnes Omnibus and livewyre last night. Your updates are must reading for me and the best source for information on Ukraine that I have found. I trust your judgement on the credibility for sources. It is takes hard work to fight the dark influences of anger and vengeance. It is so easy to give in to base emotions, to not think. Our fight to keep our humanity does not mean we don’t stop fighting for justice. We all want peace for Ukraine and will do what we can to help. Thank you.
NotoriousJRT
@Adam L Silverman: I’m right there with you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I follow it closely using a variety of translation methods. As I know you’re aware, I’ve been consistently calling what the Russians are doing genocide since the start of the re-invasion. We can try to be better than they are even if we don’t think they deserve to be treated that well.
trollhattan
This asshole, again.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1611918479623442434?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Trump, being the asshole in question, has thoughts on how Biden made Putin invade Ukraine.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
I don’t have an issue with using pejorative terms for Russians, orc, moblik, Rucist, etc, particularly when applied to actions or known individuals. I don’t think if properly applied it is eliminationist.
I do have an issue with eliminationist retoric, and there are some posters here quick to jump to that or have it as the single argument in their bank.
What happens in Russia, post Ukraine War, really depends on the results of the war and the fall out in Russia. There are some things we can “help” with, if Russian orgs and Govt are okay with that, there is nothing we can do but sanctions and ostricization if Russia chooses to go hard right and unredemptionist.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: The real question is are they actually decent and Russian or are they just Russians that have found a way to escape not because they disagree with Putin or what he’s doing, but because it would be more comfortable to live somewhere other than Russia right now?
Jay
@Jay:
thanks, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: No doubt.
YY_Sima Qian
@planetjanet:
+1
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: This question deserves to be dealt with in the body of an update post. Also, I need to think about it a bit.
Tehanu
Thank you, Adam. I hope your work here is appreciated in Washington DC as well as by us.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
and there are Russian dissenter’s who just object to Putin and nothing else, others who think Putin hasn’t gone far enough, etc.
So far, I have yet to see a Russian Dissenter of any political impact, who would mate well with “Western Values”.
Adam L Silverman
@The Dark Avenger: Well played!
Rocks
@Gin & Tonic: It sounds like Fox and Friends.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: I freed it.
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: I was wondering if the U.S. would take “kinetic action” against missile shipments. I’ve mainly read accounts of heavy diplomatic pressure by the U.S. and the EU, but it seems like that alone would not deter Iran.
Then I see something like this statement from Ukrainian presidential advisor Mikhailo Podolyak:
I get the sense that this was more than aspirational, that a “move to more destructive tools” might really be on the table. A U.S. strike against Iranian missile shipments and/or production facilities would be a big step. I would not have thought it possible four months ago. Now I am not so sure.
And thank you for this answer, and thank you for all the good work you have delivered so consistently.
* Unfortunately, I got sloppy with my note-taking and cannot provide a date and source for Mr. Podolyak’s words with certainty.
Jay
Adam L Silverman
@Tehanu: Unless one of you all lives in DC, then it is unlikely.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Yup, thank you again.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: I know *you* are aware of what’s happening and have been calling it by its proper name. I’m not so sure about everyone else.
And, in case I haven’t made it clear enough, I deeply appreciate all the work you do on this front.
Grumpy Old Railroader
Same here but dug a little deeper on Open Railway Map where I discovered that the railway through Luhansk City and Shchastia are actually on a “branch” line that dead ends to the north and east and connects with the main trunk line going north and south and east down around Donetsk City. But that Open Railway Map is hard to cypher because it is in Cryllic which doesn’t translate well in Google Maps.
But my point is the railway sabotage does not affect the normal flow to/from Russia but does affect the entire north and east area of Luhansk. Think of it as a huge feeder tributary emptying into the bigger river that is used to transport goods to/from Russia
And of course, perhaps that mapping I was looking at is wrong and the branch line does connect into Russia but the map does indicate it is a secondary line and not a primary line
Freemark
I’m with Paul B. Just about everybody here agrees we need to give Ukraine a lot more than we have, stuff that let’s them take the fight to Russia. Also that Russia needs to be punished and pay consequences. Basically stating ‘the only good Russian is a dead Russian’ is actually counterproductive and helps Russia way more than it helps Ukraine.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman: Why would a non-decent Russian find it more comfortable outside of Russia right now?
I know (not very young) people who have had their lives upended because they can’t stay in Russia in these circumstances. I would call them decent.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: This is the Navalny issue. He’s not less of a nationalist, he’s not less of a Russian ethno-chauvinist, he’s just better at obscuring his racist remarks made a decade or so ago and he’s branded and marketed himself as much more palatable than Putin or others who might replace Putin.
zhena gogolia
@Jay: Some of them are dead.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman: Great branding and marketing, that’s gotten him the enviable fate of rotting away in solitary confinement.
Gin & Tonic
@Rocks: No, it is closer to Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: No worries here.
jackmac
@teakay:
I have no first-hand experience with war, but like teakay I had a father who served as a medic (actually an Army corpsman) during World War II. Dad never talked much about it and died when I was a kid, but sifting through memories plus speculation left me to conclude that the war really messed him up.
He married a woman he knew from prewar years and they had two kids within 13 months in the mid-1950s. I remember him as an angry man who couldn’t hold down a steady job and had a violent streak (although he never hit my mom). He drank way too much and it eventually killed him.
Was he suffering from PTSD? Evidence sure points that way.
I’m not aware if he ever sought help. My mom died in 1963 and that finally shattered him. By mid-1966 he was dead of cirrhosis of the liver. I was 11 years old. (Fortunately I turned out okay).
Fast forward to today and Ukraine has heroically defended itself, deserves all the help we can provide and ultimately oust the invaders from a fucked up (one account called it medieval) Russian society.
But I also grieve the horrific losses on both sides and the short and long-term ramifications to come among soldiers, moms, dads, brothers and sisters and children.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: Because they could have their cake and eat it too in supporting Putin and the war, but being able to live where it can’t effect them in terms of conscription or economic effects from the sanctions.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: I don’t disagree w/ your sentiment. I have no problem adding adjectives to describe behavior, including terming behavior of Nazi soldiers “monstrous” or IJA soldiers “bestial” during WW II. However, if we want to call Russian soldiers in general “orcs”, or Russian people in general “orc-sympathizers”, or say Carthago Delente Est in the context of Russia, we should explain what we mean & what we propose to do about it. Otherwise it is a quick slide toward eliminationism. After all, what can one do w/ orcs but to kill them all?
I am very uncomfortable w/ “orcs” specifically because the times I have read right wing Americans & Canadians, including & especially law enforcement types, use that term to describe ethnic minority gang members on Internet forums, & how quickly that can slide to cover all residents of poor inner city neighborhoods. At least this was the case a decade ago.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: When he gets out he’ll have something that Putin, Patrushev, and others don’t have: convict credibility. He could’ve led the anti-Putin movement safely from Germany, or more/relatively safely, instead he went back knowing he’d be in prison. The senior Vory going after Prigozhin are going to react and respond differently to Navalny when he finishes his prison term than if he’d avoided it and stayed in relative safety in Germany.
Omnes Omnibus
@YY_Sima Qian: That is my take on the use of the such terms as well.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: Completely OT, but I recently started reading a book called Sinostan and tangentially learned who Sima Qian was.
Bill Arnold
@Grumpy Old Railroader:
If you are reading on a desktop/laptop/tablet and also have a smartphone (or another tablet), you can install the google translate app, which has camera mode, set it to “detect language”, and point it at a screen with foreign-language text. It will overlay the image of the text with a machine translation.
Google translate Russian to English is not great, but it is usually helpful. I just installed on an android tablet, and in the same search I see a few others, including DeepL Translate.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you, I look forward to your comments!
way2blue
@Adam L Silverman:
Me too.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman: He’s never going to finish his prison term.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: The historical Sima Qian was a fascinating & inspiring figure.
Priest
Also appreciate the updates, and tonight’s intro.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: We’ll see.
Jinchi
@Adam L Silverman: Do we assume that Navalny will get out of prison while Putin is alive?
Jay
Jager
Thank you Adam for all the work you do for us.
My dad was a Glider pilot in WWII, a pilot, and a ground pounder. He was the 2nd glider across the Rhine in Operation Varsity. He was awarded the Bronze Star and a Purple Heart. His best friend. after the war, was a tank commander, he had a wonderful employee who served on a submarine in the Pacific. I grew up around guys like my old man. When I finished college in 1967. I knew I was going to get drafted, so I enlisted. I humped ruck in Vietnam in 68-9. When I got home, I had a different attitude than my dad, but we understood each other. My best friend’s wife is Ukrainian, she has family there, they are strong, brave, and tough. If I ever ran into a guy like Matt Gaetz, he’d be choking on his nuts.
way2blue
Adam, thank you for your *chat* today. And always for these indispensable daily WfU updates. I also learn so much from the commenters about military equipment, tactics, strategy, WWI, WWII battles, China, NATO… Thank you for sharing your hard-won military insights. Not something I ever expected to pay attention too.
I only once heard my dad talk about his WWII experience, and not directly to me, but to a friend of mine who was a deck officer. My dad drove an amphibious landing craft in the Aleutians—red tracer bullets zipping over his head—the landing craft next to him swamping & sinking. (My dad was a gentle soul who would carry spiders outside rather than squash them—because they were helpers… )
Grumpy Old Railroader
That is what keeps me coming back. Even in the comments I learn stuff. Thanks and I will use that from now on
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: If the book you are reading is Sinostan: China’s Inadvertent Empire, & you are interested in learning more about the details & nuances of China’s (or more correctly, different Chinese actors’) engagement w/ the developing world, I highly recommend the fantastic series of papers being published by the Carnegie Endowment (called China Local/Global), written from the local perspective (as opposed to that of DC, Brussels, London or Beijing).
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: That is indeed the book I am reading. Thank you for the reference to further readings.
Grumpy Old Railroader
I’m with ya Brother. Straight Leg in 69-70. II Corps Central Highlands with two short “secret” side trips into Cambodia (at least according to the map I used)
Madeleine
Thank you for your opening statement, Adam. Grumpy, Ruckus, and others spoke last night from difficult experience and from their hearts. They deserve our attention and our respect. What happened, it felt awful. I apologize to them for having said nothing in support.
Jager
@Grumpy Old Railroader:
I finally went to the wall on my way to Virginia for my girlfriend, now wife) brother’s wedding in 94. It was Friday, November 11th, we flew in, rented a car, and drove to the wall. I found one of my squad leaders and two other kids’ names. I was just gutted. We went to our hotel, had a drink, then ate some soup. She snuggled up to my back, it was exactly what I needed. Her older brother had just retired from the Navy (Master Chief) we had a good talk the next day. Thank God for brothers in arms.
Priest
Long time family friend who was already at FSU biology dept. when my family moved to Tallahassee in ‘68, my dad in Religion dept. (became friends after we moved, into same neighborhood). Dr. Roeder was a little bit older, had served in Battle of Bulge as teenager. The only story I heard, indirectly, was about him shooting a cow. As is common, he did not talk about those times and experiences. He was my dad’s best friend, and the last and most personal of the three people to speak at my dad’s memorial service. I felt a strong obligation to go to Martin Roeder’s service in May 2019. A jolly, jovial man. But witness to unspeakable things.
karen marie
@zhena gogolia: Are we going to start a pool as to when the GOP House “honors” Bolsonaro?
Ruckus
Thank all of you for the positive comments.
As I’ve stated here many times prior, I never served a second in a war zone. But our country was at war in Vietnam and I spent 2 months as I’ve stated here in a navy hospital with lots of men who had. We’ve had other commenters on here who also served. My dad served in WWII and never, ever said one word to me about his time in or my joining. And as many of you have stated your dads served and wouldn’t talk about it either. Vietnam vets seem to be slightly different and I can see reasons for that, first is that a lot of press worked in Vietnam, we saw pictures on the TV or in national magazines. The Vietnam war was exposed to the public. WWII far less so. Some of that is the time some of that is the technology, some of it likely the public. From people I’ve known I think the difference is technology, visual and recording technology. Today many carry a phone with a camera that will take better pictures than a film camera, certainly the film would degrade far more than electrons do. I have a picture I took in Norway, in December, 51 yrs ago and it was one of my best shots ever. The film has degraded such that it really doesn’t have the punch it did then. We see war today and it feels a hell of a lot more real, because we see it as if it’s happening in front of us, it’s not a story told by someone who knows you will have a difficult time really understanding because you can’t see it like WWII really was, which many of them could not get out of their minds.
Many, most of those guys I spent 2 months in a military hospital with had been to Vietnam, an example one fella, a Marine, lived in a wheel chair because his legs no longer worked. He was wicked on a basketball court in his wheelchair though. I have a list, I’m not writing it here or anywhere, but I’ve heard stories, I’ve seen the results of wounds of those wars and the one’s since at the VA. Back in WWII there was a chance to decompress before one hit the US, a chance to understand that most people really do not want to know what it was like, pretty much like most every person I’ve known that’s been in combat. It’s just that many that came back had seen a lot more death on both sides. And death is worse than wounds and wheelchairs and missing limbs. Especially when one is under 25 yrs old. I’ve lived close to 3/4 of a century, I’ve had injuries, I’m still here. I’ve known people that I can’t say that about.
Likely we all do.
But warfare is different.
It just is.
Poptartacus
Thank you for these daily updates. Your much appreciated, please continue.
https://youtu.be/EoOcNJ7IOZI
Ruckus
@Madeleine:
It’s OK and thank you.
In case no one has noticed, my time in the navy was different than others here, Grumpy, Jager, I’m sure there are others.
@Jager:
I missed the wall on my last trip into DC, was working, just no time. I really, really want to go at some point. pay my respects.
Grumpy Old Railroader
I both want and don’t want to visit the wall. I stay in touch with (was three now) two other ground pounders I was with. It is hard to talk with folk that weren’t also in the bush. I go to the VA and dudes my age are wearing boonie caps and dog tags and I think damn man, they never left. They are still over there in their head.
Jager
Ruckus, go!
I’ve been three times. The 2nd time was with my grandsons, The 3rd time was with a close friend of mine. Jim was an Army doc, a surgeon, who served around the same time I was there. You know what got to him? He couldn’t remember the names. A guy I went to college with, fucked up and got drafted, he trained as a medic. I told him about my friend Doctor Jim. He said, “Jesus Christ, I know exactly how he feels.”
Grumpy Old Railroader
@Adam L Silverman:
Thanks for the thoughtful words and thank you for sharing all your information and field wisdom
Ruckus
@Grumpy Old Railroader:
I go to the VA and dudes my age are have boonie caps and dog tags and I think damn man, they never left.
I use the VA hospital, I like it better than clinics and really there isn’t one all that close anyway. But I don’t see boonie caps and dog tags.
I see a lot of folks that are a lot younger though and that damage is still there.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: My assumption is that if Navalny is ever released from prison, and VVP is still in power, then VVP will try again to kill him. VVP does not like famous opposition figures, at all.
I’m sure Navalny knows that, but has already decided that VVP’s threats don’t matter.
Slava Ukraini!!
Thanks Adam, and all the thoughtful commenters on these threads.
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@Grumpy Old Railroader: I’m impressed that you can get any useful output from Open Railway. I’ve never been able to get beyond the search box in the inscrutable interface.
There’s an old Latin-annotated map at low level of detail here. If I understand what you are describing correctly, the Ukrainians interdicted supply from the main North-South trunk into that branch going westward to Luhansk.
My view of the significance of this is the following: The Russians can’t get supplies to the army fighting around Donetsk City directly from the supply hub in Rostov, because that entire line is in HIMARS range from Donetsk nearly all the way to the Russian border. The line that you tell me now dead-ends to the east used to connect into Russia, and could have provided an alternate supply route (it went to a place called Chebotovka in Russia on the map linked above) but apparently is no longer an option. So it’s Belgorod or nothing for the Russians. If the UA cut that North-South line, the fight at Bakhmut and the fight at Donetsk City are over. No more shells, food, or fuel for the Russians. Knock-out blow in the east.
Martin
Not been paying terribly close attention to Ukraine lately, so not sure if someone already shot this one down, but rumor is that Putin will mobilize 500K drawing more from urban centers on 1/15.
Sounds desperate. Would feel better about this if I was more confident we had enough artillery rounds for Ukraine.
Cermet
Good post by Adam – as someone that use to comment here and left because of the total s … well, just say intolerant people that consider anything not following group think on the war as something to attack the commentor on a personal level, I have abandoned this blog. If I wanted an echo chamber, I would read rightwing loser blogs. Yet by random chance I open it and read this post. Good someone who writes main posts here is addressing (in part) this issue. So, decided to post my two cents that too many here really do lose it because they can’t handle disagreement.
Well, all I have to say but be assured, not returning so everyone here that can’t handle differing views are safe again in their echo chamber here (guess as they get older, they discover that the Fox ‘Fake News’ programs will certainly appeal to them.)
Paul in KY
@teakay: God bless your father and his comrades. My dad was in Patton’s Third. He is 98 now & has senile dementia. Back in his prime, he never spoke of the war, except to say you can’t imagine what a 2 week old dead body smells like and that SS prisioners were rarely taken. That was it.
Paul in KY
@jackmac: Your father had a terrible job in the war.