The news, as always, is initially muddled. What we do know is the Wagner mercs are still trying to move into Soledar and the Ukrainians are still resisting the push. Right now we have Ukrainian forces in contact with Wagner mercenaries and, possibly VDV paratroopers. Or, according to Wagner, just the mercs. Or, according to the Russian MOD, just the VDV paratroopers. Part of the reason the info coming out is so muddled is that both Prigozhin and the Russian MOD are using the fight for Soledar, as part of the fight for Bakhmut, as grist for their information warfare they’re running against each other in regard to whether Wagner or the Russian military is the most effective Russian fighting force. Honestly, that’s how stupid this effort is by Wagner and the Russian military. They’re fighting for something not because it has real theater strategic value, nor because it would allow them to actually set the conditions for future successes, but so that either Wagner or the Russian military can claim to have taken a Ukrainian city while the other couldn’t. Basically, the below is an excellent visual depiction of what Prigozhin and Shoigu and Gerasimov are doing:
I’ll have full details after President Zelenskyy’s address.
Speaking of, here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today, I held a regular meeting of the Staff. The meeting, which by its nature corresponded to the situation on the frontline, in the most important directions.
Of course, the top issue is Soledar, Bakhmut, the struggle for the Donetsk direction in general. We have analyzed in detail what decisions are needed, what reinforcements are needed, what steps should be taken by commanders in the coming days.
We also discussed the situation with the supply of weapons and ammunition to the troops, relevant interaction with our partners.
Today, I talked about the prospects of the coming weeks and months with the Speaker of the Latvian Saeima, who was on a visit to Kyiv. We discussed not only defense, but also political prospects. In particular, European and Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine.
I heard confidence that the day will definitely come when the Ukrainian flag will be absolutely on par with all flags of the EU member states. Latvia will help us in this.
By the way, Latvia is one of those countries whose support for Ukraine in terms of percentage of GDP is one of the largest over the past year. I think that this trend may continue this year.
Today, I continued phone talks with the leaders of the partner-states.
Two more European countries whose voice is extremely important for Ukraine are Cyprus and Luxembourg. We are also expanding the geography of the diplomatic marathon – I spoke today with Mr. President of Kenya.
All these negotiations are devoted to the security issues of both our state and our partners.
I am grateful for the support of the Ukrainian Peace Formula and for the willingness to work together with us to put an end to Russian aggression as soon as possible.
A very important initiative of Ukraine is the creation of food hubs in Africa. Our foreign policy should reach a new level with African partners.
They have already felt that the security of different nations directly depends on Ukrainian food exports. And we want to consolidate this at the level of specific institutions, specific objects – hubs, that is, specific guarantees of food stability that will be constantly in effect and will be one of the new foundations of relations between Ukraine and the states of the African continent.
Today we also opened a new direction in our state charity platform United24. This direction is the reconstruction of Ukraine. It is the generation of funds for the restoration, in particular, of housing for Ukrainians in the territories affected by Russian strikes and occupation.
As of this day, about half a billion hryvnias have already been raised through United24 from people from more than a hundred countries to restore housing. This is a tangible help to both local communities and the state.
In general, more than 10 billion hryvnias have already been raised due to the state fundraising platform. And I thank everyone who joined the United24 fundraising.
Thank you to everyone who helps Ukraine!
Thank you to each and everyone who fights for Ukraine!
And today, I want to especially mention the paratroopers of the 77th separate airmobile brigade, who together with the fighters of the 46th separate airmobile brigade in Soledar hold their positions and inflict significant losses on the enemy. Thank you, guys!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Soledar and Bakhmut:
SOLEDAR / 2145 UTC 12 JAN/ After heavy fighting, night has fallen on the battle space; unconfirmed reports say that RU forces have taken the industrial center of Soledar. On 10 & 11 JAN, RU also falsely reported the city had fallen. Waiting for official confirmation.
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 12, 2023
SOLEDAR MINES / 2015 UTC 12 JAN/ Wagner PMCs have advanced across the southern rail right-of-way into the vicinity of mine complexes 2, 3 and 4. Wagner elements that infiltrated the eastern residential areas are attempting consolidation of positions. pic.twitter.com/vrKmiX2QlT
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 12, 2023
BAKHMUT /1350 UTC 12 JAN/ RU forces consolidated infiltration points in the eastern residential areas of Soledar and extended the southern salient around the industrial areas. At Bakhmut, RU Wagner PMCs are attempting to expand a rail crossing at Andriivka. pic.twitter.com/HIzHZSl4H4
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 12, 2023
Bakhmut:
#SatelliteImagery from January 7, 2023, reveals thousands of bomb craters in fields and along roads in and around the town of #Bakhmut, #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/iAwSLzvX4b
— Maxar Technologies (@Maxar) January 11, 2023
Soledar:
Before (Aug 1, 2022) & after (Jan 10, 2023) #satellite imagery showing the magnitude of the ongoing fighting between Russian & Ukrainian forces. Shown here is the town of #Soledar, #Ukraine (lat: 48.6796, long:8.0947) & the apartment buildings that have been completely destroyed. pic.twitter.com/X6rUbDoFXg
— Maxar Technologies (@Maxar) January 11, 2023
Additional before (August 1, 2022) and after (January 10, 2023) #satellite imagery of the town of #Soledar, #Ukraine (lat: 48.663700, long: 38.091763), showing homes, schools and buildings that have been destroyed from the month’s long battle and artillery exchanges. pic.twitter.com/0JtVReyeBF
— Maxar Technologies (@Maxar) January 11, 2023
Here’s a video update from Bakhmut with English subtitles by Dmitri:
Update from Bakhmut 12 January (Kiyanyn and Vedma [Witch]). This was uploaded about 9 hours ago. pic.twitter.com/2numCiI2vC
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 12, 2023
Ukrainski Pravda has an interview with Sergeant Oleksandr Pohrebyskyi who is with the 46th Brigade about the situation in Soledar and Bakhmut. Here are some excerpts:
Soledar, a city of 10,000 people in Donetsk Oblast, which last autumn was considered an impregnable site on the Bakhmut front has become the hottest spot on the front over the past two weeks.
Wagnerites [fighters of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company] who are holding the front from the Russian side have broken through the city’s defences and started street combat.
At one stage, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade, was very close to being encircled.
Reports regarding the Ukrainian forces’ response to such an enhanced offensive and potential encirclement vary.
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine has been stating for a few days now that Russians will not manage to capture the city, whereas analysts of the Deep State Map project have detected Wagnerites in the downtown area of Soledar using open source data.
Ukrainska Pravda’s sources among soldiers also diverge in the information they provide. Some of them report that the Ukrainian army has already left the city, others argue that a fierce battle to defend Soledar is still continuing on its outskirts.
The phrase “Heavy fighting is ongoing” is a compromise used by both official and unofficial sources.
The only question is at which front line it is ongoing.
Ukrainska Pravda asked Oleksandr Pohrebyskyi, a sergeant of the Air Assault Forces and a member of Kyiv City Council representing the European Solidarity party, about the situation in Soledar.
Pohrebyskyi was defending the city as a member of the 46th Brigade that is holding Soledar with great effort before he contracted a severe cough and hypothermia two days ago.
Operational situation in Soledar
– Mr Oleksandr, thank you for agreeing to talk. I will start with the main question: who is currently controlling Soledar?
– The Armed Forces of Ukraine have the situation completely under control [the conversation was recorded at 12:00 on 11 January – ed.]. It is inappropriate to reveal the current situation as the fighting is ongoing.
If you follow the enemy’s statements, this is slightly ridiculous, as it sometimes happens that a group of Wagnerites enters a building in an industrial district and records a video for themselves before we “smoke them out”. The next day, we find out that they are Cargo 200 [the military code for dead soldiers].
Combat actions and operations are ongoing there at the moment. If I tell in detail what and how, I will harm the guys. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in control of the situation.
– “Fighting is ongoing” – that is, the city is not occupied by Russians?
– No.
– Can you say what percentage of the city is currently controlled by the Ukrainian army?
– It would be inappropriate. Moreover, the situation can change in half a day, the situation is fluid.
– Are you in Soledar now?
–I was evacuated two days ago with hypothermia (in some places of the Donetsk region it is -17° C, which is 1.4° F – Ukrainska Pravda) and a contusion (Oleksandr coughs severely) . There was a tubed artillery attack on us, but after that, I was still in charge of my people. Then I started shaking badly due to hypothermia, and I couldn’t do anything about it.
– Is the 46th Brigade currently the only one mounting the defence of Soledar?
– No, there are neighbours [other units], but we have shown the highest efficiency.
Probability of encirclement and quality of Russian forces
– The potential encirclement of the city has been actively discussed for several days. As a person from inside these defences, can you tell me whether it is possible?
– It was, but we are fixing the situation. Our unit did not sit back and did not go anywhere. We were standing, and we stand.
Our brigade has very powerful battle management: all the commanders are in their places and we have well-organised logistics, surveillance, and intelligence. This allows us to maintain our positions around the clock. We even planned an assault, i.e. to regain positions.
But the situation was such that our neighbouring units on the right and left were not as effective as we were. Therefore, the enemy managed to bypass us on the flanks. That is, yes, it (potential encirclement – UP) was possible, but now the situation is changing.
– And, in your opinion, is the situation changing for the better?
– Yes, so far the dynamics are positive. Let’s see what happens next. The Russians’ tactics are to throw their own people – both “convicts” and mercenaries of the Wagner PMC – to their deaths. As far as I have seen their “Cargo 200”, they did not even have any first-aid kits.
One of their cars broke through with ammunition, in a move that simply amounted to suicide… When we approached them, the dead, we saw that the driver was there, the other soldiers were without body armour, without helmets, each with one ammunition clip in the machine gun.
In very close infantry battles, we heard the Russian commanders shouting: “Don’t take a step back, we’ll shoot.” We heard it and saw it with our own eyes.
The sounds of the wounded convicts could be heard by our guys through the walls – they said that they had been paid $400 for a “one-way ticket”.
– There was also information that the Russians had transferred additional paratrooper units to the Bakhmut front. Have you faced them?
– No, we haven’t seen any paratroopers. As for the assault groups, that is, the infantry, who engage in combat actions at close range (20-30 metres), we do not see any military personnel among them at all.
Perhaps somewhere on the second line they are arranging support for infantry groups, but the infantry groups themselves are exclusively “cannon fodder”.
I don’t know how many of them we have killed. Two days ago there was a powerful infantry attack… I don’t know why they are doing it, but they ought to draw their conclusions. What’s the point?
– Has the option of retreating from the city been discussed in order to avoid encirclement?
– I am the chief sergeant of the company, and such things are not discussed with me. The command probably had discussed it, and different options are being prepared.
– And is the Bakhmut-Siversk highway, which passes through Soledar, currently under fire control by the Russians?
– Minus [i.e “no” in military slang – ed.]. There was a period when that was the case, but as far as I know, the situation has stabilised.
– Does that mean the logistics are still working? Is there a way to transport ammunition and people?
– Everything, absolutely everything, is working on this front.
The reasons for the breach of Soledar’s defences and the impact of its possible occupation on Bakhmut
– Since August, Soledar has been an almost impregnable fortress on the Bakhmut front, in particular, thanks to the efforts of the 93rd Brigade. At what point did the situation deteriorate sharply? What went wrong?
– As far as I know, the 93rd Brigade is a very powerful, mechanised unit with combat experience on the Donetsk front, Opytne, and the battle of Donetsk Airport [in 2014]. They have a lot of experience in both defensive and offensive actions. Therefore, when they hold their lines, it is no problem for them to restrain the enemy.
I understand that rotation with new rifle units and infantry brigades can often pose a problem with management and command. I cannot say that this is anyone’s fault, because all these units are in a dynamic process of formation, and some commanders may not have combat experience.
But from what I see, the command is trying to combine experienced units and send experienced brigades quickly to places where there are problems.
– According to my information, it was a surprise for the Ukrainian military that the Russians broke through the flanks from Yakovlivka, which is located north of Soledar, and Pidhorodne, which is south of Soledar.
Do I understand correctly that the newly formed units were sent to these areas?
– Yes.
– So Soledar’s defences were breached because soldiers deployed to some parts of the front have not been properly trained?
– This might be true, but I haven’t visited those units and I don’t know first-hand how well-trained they were.
In every military unit, effective communication, good management, competent commanders and people’s emotional and psychological state are of utmost importance. All of these things have to be taken care of before the unit in question is deployed to hotspots.
– When did the escalation in Soledar begin? Around New Year’s?
– Around then, because on 31 December we received an order to set out on 1 January and assume our positions. We couldn’t even properly celebrate the New Year. [smiling – UP]
At the time, we’d literally just got back from Kurdiumivka [a village situated on a high point south of Bakhmut – ed.] where we successfully stormed enemy positions. We were right next to Kurdiumivka, to be precise: we regained control of the area and consolidated our positions; then we were replaced by infantry units.
– Since you mentioned Kurdiumivka, could you tell me about the situation to the south of Bakhmut? Is it true that Russian forces are deployed mostly along the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal and were able to cross it in several places?
– We’re no longer there, but from what I see on the maps I can say that yes, that’s true. But this hasn’t yielded any great strategic results for them; if anything, it has depleted their infantry.
Strategically speaking, we have been winning ever since enemy forces withdrew from Kyiv Oblast.
I don’t understand the Russians’ actions on the Donetsk front from a strategic point of view. They seem only to yield political benefits for individuals such as [Yevgeny] Prigozhin, who wants to curry favour with Putin and prove that the Wagner Group is more effective than regular Russian forces. But it’s an illusion.
I am certain that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon put an end to this narrative.
– Last question: if Russian forces manage to capture Soledar, how would this affect the defence of Bakhmut, which is currently seen as the fortress of the east?
– It would have no effect from a tactical perspective. I can’t see how it could help them encircle Bakhmut or gain control of the [Bakmut–Siversk] road.
Olha Kyrylenko, Ukrainska Pravda
Translation: Myroslava Zavadska, Elina Beketova, Anton Strii, Olya Loza
Editing: Monica Sandor
Believe it or not, there is more at the link!
A little something different:
Today is the birthday of great 🇺🇦 artist Maria Prymachenko (1909-1997). She was born and lived in Bolotnya, Kyiv region. She is considered a 'primitive' artist but genuinely a modernist. She is my favorite artist, and here is a big thread about her 🧵
'Our army, our protectors' pic.twitter.com/DjDWZzNdGb
— Ukrainian Art History (@ukr_arthistory) January 12, 2023
Prymachenko is best known for her fantastic animals. But many of these animals have a story behind them. Many of them were dedicated to family, relatives, or neighbors. She was a special name for every work. pic.twitter.com/5UdCMM8ne8
— Ukrainian Art History (@ukr_arthistory) January 12, 2023
One of the stereotypes about Maria Prymachenko is that she had absolutely no education. But in 1935, she was invited by Tetiana Flory to the Central Experimental Workshop at the Kyiv Museum of Ukrainian Art and studied/worked there for some time. pic.twitter.com/myftsbtIYK
— Ukrainian Art History (@ukr_arthistory) January 12, 2023
Since 1936 she has had exhibitions worldwide, from Warsaw to Paris. Soviets were using her works, even printing them for wallpapers. But she had no help from the government. They even refused to give her free treatment in health resort. The situation was typical for folk artist. pic.twitter.com/aPSUdmaSA3
— Ukrainian Art History (@ukr_arthistory) January 12, 2023
One of the most important series was her Chornobyl series. Village Bolotnya is situated only 30 km from Chornobyl. She refused to evacuate.
1.The fourth power unit
2.Сancer stings every Ukrainian
3. Dedication to the liquidators of the disaster pic.twitter.com/cAukklT077— Ukrainian Art History (@ukr_arthistory) January 12, 2023
This spring, russian occupants destroyed The Ivankiv Museum, with the reported loss of 25 of Prymachenko's works. However, local people were able to save 14 of Prymachenko's works from the fire.
'Nuclear war is damned', 1976, and destroyed museum in Ivankiv. pic.twitter.com/uUSENkmLoT
— Ukrainian Art History (@ukr_arthistory) January 12, 2023
The Mighty Trowel sent me the link to a podcast on Ukrainian heritage and archeological sites. Here’s her description:
Pulling together teaching materials for this year and tripped over this great podcast conversation with a great colleague who has excavated extensively in Ukraine. It’s not war-related (though they touch on it briefly at the end), but it does give outsiders some insight into how significant the archaeological heritage in the region is – these are truly spectacular sites and Bisserka is by far one of the best people to talk to about them.
And here’s the description at the link:
Archaeologist, Bisserka Gaydarska, discusses Ukranian Mega Sites with us this week. The Trypillia megasites of Ukraine are the largest known settlements in 4th millennium BC Europe and possibly the world. With the largest reaching 1.2 square miles in size, megasites raise questions about their origins and purpose. Current theories assume maximum occupation, with all houses occupied at the same time, and a military focus. But recent research suggests alternative views of megasites, suggesting smaller long-term occupations or seasonal assembly places, creating a sustainable settlement rather than military encampment. Listen to our fascinating discussion with Bisserka as we discuss new ideas and research diving into the understanding of these urban centers. Bisserka Gaydarska is an Honorary Research Fellow at Durham University in Durham, England.
I think that’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Це лиш малесенька частинка приємних коментарів, і це безцінно! 🥹❤️
The caption machine translates as:
This is just a small part of the nice comments, and it’s priceless! 🥹❤️
Open thread!
dmsilev
Can’t they just start shooting at each other and answer the question for once and for all?
The Ukrainian forces can watch and provide feedback and assessments.
Parfigliano
Wagner and Russian military being liquidated for nothing of value. Good.
twbrandt (formerly tom)
So this is trivial, but is it pronounced “wag-ner” like actor Robert Wagner, or “vahg-ner” like composer Richard Wagner?
MisterForkbeard
@twbrandt (formerly tom): It’s actually pronounced “War Criminals”, but this is a great question.
Gin & Tonic
@twbrandt (formerly tom): Since the composer is the namesake. go with the German pronunciation.
JaySinWA
@dmsilev: I was wondering as i read that if the situation might not end up (or perhaps is already) a literal fight between the two factions for the claim of potential victory
ETA or blame for defeat.
Gin & Tonic
Thanks, Adam for the artistic and archaeological diversions in this post. I was struck yesterday or the day before when YY_Sima Qian commented about how pervasive the Russophilic perspective is, worldwide. In at least the post-WWII United States, both academia and the foreign-policy establishment have always discounted Ukraine as a sort of minor-league Russia. See the various academic departments of “Russian and Eastern European Studies” or the way DoS or CIA “desks” were organized. Ukraine has a long and rich history of its own – Kyiv was a center of faith and culture when Muscovy was a swamp – but Russia neither acknowledges that nor wants the rest of the world to do so. So thanks for highlighting both its pre-history and its native art.
Which brings me to a plug: if you want to support current Ukrainian arts and crafts, look into the Odna Foundation – “odna” is the nominative feminine of “one” – a woman-run foundation helping to support Ukrainian artists and crafters. I know some of the women involved and can vouch for them unreservedly. odnafoundation.org
twbrandt (formerly tom)
@Gin & Tonic: thanks, I didn’t realize it was named after the composer.
Rekoob
Perhaps Bisserka Gaydarska will have a chance to interact with the incoming Chancellor of Durham University, Fiona Hill, PhD. It appears that in the case of Dr. Hill, at least, there is something for her there.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Will definitely check them out!
Adam L Silverman
@twbrandt (formerly tom): The retired Spetznaz colonel that built it to spec for Prigozhin is a massive neo-Nazi. He’s covered in Nazi tats. SS lightning bolts, totenkopfs, Nazi eagles perched on swastikas, etc. His call sign is Wagner because Wagner is his favorite composer.
TheMightyTrowel
@Rekoob: Speaking from long experience: university chancellors do not speak with academics and especially not with archaeologists. When the latter has occurred all involved regretted the interaction deeply ;-)
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@dmsilev: this comment made me laugh out loud. Thank you.
Amir Khalid
Is the Vox guitar amplifier behind Patron an AC30, by any chance?
If Prigozhin has decided that his Wagner mercenaries are in competition with Russian military, is there a risk of fighting breaking out between Wagner units and Russian troops?
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: In order: I have no idea. And I hope so.
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
I don’t understand why Putin let such a situation develop. Having two sets of fighters in competition with each other sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.
Gin & Tonic
@Amir Khalid: We can only hope.
glc
Nominated
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I have never understood the thought process that drives people from countries that had suffered so greatly under the Nazis to become Neo-Nazis. Russians idolizing symbols of Soviet Communism, sure, as some indeed do.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman:
@Amir Khalid:
I suspect such in-fighting will come to the fore when the war ends, however it ends. Since it will not likely end in a way that could plausibly be spun as a Russian victory, there will be a battle royale to assign blame.
frosty
@Amir Khalid: Image search shows both the AC15 and AC30 had a limited edition run in purple. Could be either, but I’d guess AC30 because it’s their flagship model and that’s what most people would want to buy.
patrick II
@Amir Khalid:
Perhaps not purposely, but with two different command chains in the same territory shooting at indistinct targets or calling in artillery strikes, the chances of harm from friendly fire are not insignificant.
Of course, it’s Russia, so purposely is on the table too.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@glc: Seconded.
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: He’s always pitted the siloviki off against each other.
Captain C
@Amir Khalid: It wouldn’t be the first time in Russian history, not even in the last 100ish years. For example, at the end of World War II, Stalin setting Zhukov and Konev to race each other to Berlin. And even worse was the Samsonov-Rennenkampf rivalry in World War I.
Freemark
@Captain C:
@Amir Khalid:
It’s a literal feature of fascism. Hitler often gave multiple people the same authority so they would fight it out. Both bureaucratically and militarily,
Andrya
@Freemark: It’s not only a feature of fascist governments, but also of the most effective thoroughly democratic and admirable governments. Abraham Lincoln’s cabinet has been described as “team of rivals” and Franklin Roosevelt also had rivals among his closest advisors.
The advantage- for either a despotic/genocidal government, or for a democratic elected head of government- is that you always get the facts. If one rival tries to pull the wool over your eyes, their rivals will give you the facts.
The Other Steve
The whole theory of the strategic purpose of Soledar is to cut the railway to Bakhmut. I can’t help but wonder if Ukraine hasn’t been learning some tricks from the US military regarding the use of trucks for supplies. Taking Soledar may not give Russia the strategic advantage they think.
I also get the impression that the Ukrainians are treating this as a… it’s ok if we lose this, but Russians are going to pay dearly to take it.
twbrandt (formerly tom)
@Adam L Silverman: thanks. I know the composer was an antisemite and a favorite of Hitler’s, so I guess this is not surprising.
Redshift
@Andrya: Yeah, but Lincoln and Roosevelt didn’t have their rivals in the field with guns and troops. Rivals among your advisors can help you get clear information. Rivals far away who have every incentive to lie to you to make themselves look better, not so much.
Of course, since Vova demoted the general who was (supposedly) giving him more realistic reports of what was going on, it seems like all sides prefer lies that tell him what he wants to hear.
kalakal
@Amir Khalid: Probably an AC30 2x 12. The trim could be an AC15 or AC30 but the AC15 and AC30 1×12 only has a central carrying handle on the top, the AC30 2 x 12 has 3, one central and one at each end.
Authoritarian leaders often deliberately promote rivalry amongst subordinates. Probably a reflection of Social Darwinist beliefs plus it limits the possibilty of their being overthrown by an ovèrmighty subordinate, or worse, gang of subordinates acting in concert. Will it lead to fighting on the battlefield? This is Putin’s rotten empire, who knows.
Andrya
@Redshift: I don’t think we disagree. There are two separate issues:
a. A cabinet/advisors who are political rivals, so will give the head of government (Lincoln, FDR) the facts. Totally good.
b. Rival factions using military force/violence to dominate/suppress each other. Totally bad, and strongly associated with dictatorship/fascism. Totally bad.
kalakal
@kalakal:
ETA. While it may not lead to actual fighting between Wagner & and the RUA I’m pretty sure there will be/already is a lot of malicious compliance. eg withholding of supplies, air and artillery support, as well as mysterious delays and failures in supporting movements of ground forces. It’s not uncommon historically for military commanders to hang on to resources or to attempt to preempt their rivals even when they’re all pretty much on the same page eg Patten, Montgomery & Bradley or Clark’s capture of Rome in WW2*. Putin’s merry men loathe each other and take this tendency to extremes.
*Eisenhower really was a genius at herding cats
Ruckus
@Amir Khalid:
vlad was reported some time ago to have cancer or something that was likely untreatable. This may be his last grasp at greatness. Either that or the bed bugs inhabiting his skull have finally finished dinner and there are only two emotions left in there, hate and greed.
Just as he doesn’t give a damn about most of his citizens other than what they can do for him, and his failure to become the world’s greatest human seems to have gained a fair amount of momentum towards even worse and is stacking up to be costing the human race a fair bit, a hopeful ray might be the stress of being head of failed state and losing a war that he never should have started might just leave the world slightly brighter if it kills him.
Bill Arnold
Russia’s net contributions to global GHG emissions, past, present and future have been/are a concern for many. Interesting analysis with some focus on the effects of Russia’s (re-)invasion of Ukraine on methane emissions. (Not complete, e.g. doesn’t much cover shifts in supply to other regions of the world with different levels of emissions mitigations. Doesn’t speculate about a partial collapse of the Russian Federation. Russian-caused damage to non-carbon-emitting nuclear power plants also has indirect effects.)
Russia’s Methane Emissions and the War in Ukraine (JANUARY 12, 2023, ANTOINE HALFF, DR. ROBERT KLEINBERG AND DR. TATIANA MITROVA)
(pdf)
Carlo Graziani
@Freemark: It’s a solid analogy. Hitler allowed Goering and Himmler to have their own military empires, and played them off each other and off the Wehrmacht general staff. Trusting any one “lieutenant” with too much unchecked power is a stupid risk to take for such a figure.
One reflection on the Gerasimov “promotion” (literally a promotion in the show business sense of the term): it is, of course, a military absurdity to put such a manifest incompetent directly in charge of operations, particularly after such a disastrous campaign year. But it does tell us something about how Putin’s circle is currently thinking about the war.
If they thought they had a disaster on their hands that required desperate measures to retrieve, they would certainly not do something so asinine, particularly as Surovikin had so far committed no unforced errors, unlike all his predecessors, and Gerasimov himself. So they obviously still think that they are winning, or like their 2023 chances at any rate. Someone has told them a reassuring bedtime story, probably a mix of “the missile campaign is working, a new draft of soldiers will make good the manpower losses, new weapons coming from Iran, the West will eventually get tired or scared of nuclear sabre-rattling, the US Congress elections are a decisive blow to Ukraine, look how we keep the pressure on in Bakhmut, etc.” And, since they’ve bought into some such theory of Russian victory in 2023, they can afford to be complacent and strike blows at their rivals for power. Putin buys the theory too, and is happy to let his bag of cats fight it out amongst themselves, since this abates the threat that any of them could pose to him.
Obviously, I believe that their bedtime story is the kind of utter bullshit that is so easily spun up in courts where bad news is punished severely, and they are in for a nasty shock well before they line up all their assets for whatever set-piece operational fantasy is currently on MOD maps, because there is no doubt that the UA has no intention of ever allowing the Russians to take the initiative again in this war, and their cycle operates much faster than the Russians’ does.
The UA has made a habit of profiting from Russian politically-driven strategic errors. I’m sure they are casting their gaze over a promising menu of opportunities right now, and Gerasimov’s accession is only likely to improve their prospects, in my opinion.
Carlo Graziani
It would be surprising if the Ukrainians had not already begun planting mines and other booby traps throughout those mineshafts.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: I would think the methane release from the thawing Siberian tundra (& the Canadian tundra, for that matter) would ultimately dwarf methane release from the Russian oil & gas industries. Rapidly pivoting away from oil & gas for transportation & power generation needs is a far more reliable response than counting on the good senses of hydrocarbon producing countries.
Home heating in winter is still a problem, but there may be less demand as winters trend warmer overall.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: …and manufacturing/industry. But yes, those are the big three.
Carlo Graziani
@The Other Steve:
This is a misapprehension. The fact that there are rail lines there does not mean that the Russians can use them. In fact, Russian rail logistics in Kharkiv Oblast had terminated at Kupyansk since June at the latest, and points further south on that line were interdicted—Lyman hadn’t seen supply trains in months despite its reputation as a rail hub. And since the September Kharkiv offensive took Kupyansk, those tracks might as well be in a Manhattan subway line as far as the Russians are concerned.
There is zero “strategic” advantage to the Wagner operations in Bakhmut/Soledar. Zero. They do not advance any Russian military goal by any measurable amount. In fact, given the dispersion of effort that they represent, they are an obvious operational liability, and the least promising of the four fights that the Russians are engaged in (Ķherson/Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk City, Bakhmut/Soledar, and Kreminna/Svatove). That battle exists for the sole purpose of serving Prigozhin’s political interests.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Hard to pivot away from oil & gas as inputs for petrochemicals & synthetic materials. That is a much longer road.
Hoppie
@dmsilev: Actually if you change it to the “least effective fighting force” it has exactly the same meaning.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: That’s true of course, but it is the associate GHG emissions that matter, not the inputs themselves. It’s a technological challenge. US DOE is investing in a number of industrial decarbonization research efforts, some in the nature of “blue-sky idea farming”, some more advanced, but real research investment at DOE scales.
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
Maria Prymachenko’s art work is stunning. Thank you, Adam, for continuing to educate me and enlighten me on the beauty and depth of Ukrainian culture. That thanks is extended to all the BJ commenters who bring their expertise and experience to the conversation as well. I only wish the reason behind our having these posts didn’t exist.
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
I just saw that American, Taylor Dudley, was released by Russia, who has been holding him since April. He had been backpacking and was arrested on the Poland Russia border. Bill Richardson was involved in his release. Any thoughts on the timing of this? There’s no report of a trade having been done.
bookworm1398
Lovely art, thanks Adam
trnc
Looks like this one to me.
Torrey
I see for once I’ve gotten in early enough to express my thanks with the possibility that the relevant people will actually see it. Adam, as always, thank you for all the work of putting together what appears to these unpracticed eyes as the most significant, noteworthy and relevant pieces of information on the current state of the war and making it clear and coherent. And thanks also to the many people with military experience who have provided insight into aspects of the war that those of us who have lived entirely civilian lives can’t really imagine. And special thanks to those who have knowledge about Ukraine itself, the people and culture, and who are sharing those with us. And for that, a separate message.
Torrey
@Gin & Tonic:
Thank you for this information about the Odna Foundation. I’ve been hearing a fair number of conversations in academic circles lately about precisely the point you’re making about the “Russian and Eastern European Studies” departments. I expect to see a shift in emphasis in Slavic studies towards Ukrainian going forward. It will take a while, but I think it will happen. I’m already seeing some movement in US universities forming “sister university” partnerships with Ukrainian universities.