• Menu
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Before Header

  • Comment
  • About Us
  • Lexicon
  • Contact Us
  • Our Store
  • ↑
  • ↓
  • ←
  • →

Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Second rate reporter says what?

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

In my day, never was longer.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

A dilettante blog from the great progressive state of West Virginia.

A Senator Walker would be an insult to the state and the nation.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

You cannot shame the shameless.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

Usually wrong but never in doubt

The words do not have to be perfect.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

After roe, women are no longer free.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Mobile Menu

  • Winnable House Races
  • Donate with Venmo, Zelle & PayPal
  • Site Feedback
  • War in Ukraine
  • Submit Photos to On the Road
  • Politics
  • On The Road
  • Open Threads
  • Topics
  • Balloon Juice 2023 Pet Calendar (coming soon)
  • COVID-19 Coronavirus
  • Authors
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Lexicon
  • Our Store
  • Politics
  • Open Threads
  • War in Ukraine
  • Garden Chats
  • On The Road
  • 2021-22 Fundraising!
You are here: Home / Open Threads / We Placed a Bet on Michigan, and We Won Big

We Placed a Bet on Michigan, and We Won Big

by WaterGirl|  January 13, 202312:07 pm| 97 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Political Fundraising, Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022

FacebookTweetEmail

Okay, it’s finally time to look back at our fundraising and GOTV efforts in 2022.  We’ll be documenting our investments, evaluating the results, celebrating our achievements, and discussing our strategy for the next cycle.  First up?

Michigan

We placed a bet on Michigan, and we won big.  Actually, as you’ll see below, we placed a lot of bets on Michigan!

A bit of background.

Trump won Michigan in 2016 by less than 11,000 votes.  With voter suppression and gerrymandering both at play, we lost by 1/4 of 1%.  Balloon Juice worked strategically to guarantee that Michigan voters’ voices would be heard going forward.  We had some good company, too – the Democratic party, activist organizations, and labor unions.

We needed to keep Big Gretch Gretchen Whitmer and the other top executive office holders in place. We needed to get voting rights enshrined in the Michigan constitution.  We wanted to put up a firewall for 2024.So what did we do for Michigan?

Four Directions, an organization that needs no introductions with the BJ crowd!
$30,000 + $60,000 match  = $90,000

Voting Access for All (VAAC), who spread the word among formerly incarcerated people to let them know they can vote, get them registered, and get them to the polls.
$27,000 + $25,000 match = $52,000

Promote the Vote, who created the ballot initiative to amend the state constitution to preserve and protect voting rights in Michigan, to spread the word about the initiative, and to get folks registered to vote and to sign the petition.  We funded 5 fellowships for underrepresented and undeserved populations to get signatures to get the voting provisions on the ballot.
$25,000 + they continued to fund those fellowships after signatures were collected = at least $50,000, maybe more.

Michigan Supreme Court, where we raised money for the 2 candidates.
$1,400

What do we have to show for our efforts?

Great turnout in November.  Voting rights enshrined into law in Michigan.  Abortion rights enshrined into law.  A blue Michigan Statehouse.  A blue brick back in the wall for Democrats!

Note: we didn’t directly fund any of the abortion rights activity, but the synergy between the voting rights initiative and the abortion rights initiative helped drive the outcome.  Each of those efforts indirectly supported the other – by getting folks registered and educated about one initiative, that gave us more registered, informed voters who could vote for the other initiative.  Along with VAAC and Four Directions, that helped give us a huge victory in Michigan.

We met multiple times with an organization in Michigan that was very involved in the abortion rights initiative in Michigan, promoting the youth vote through edgy videos and savvy viral strategy.  Ultimately, we didn’t fund them for this cycle, but we have our eyes on them for the 2024 cycle.

Is it premature to say that with all of these efforts, we don’t really have to worry that much about Michigan anymore?  Yes!   We’re not taking our eyes off the ball.  We have to continue to support what we helped build.

Closing thoughts?

In many ways, Michigan did everything right, including fixing gerrymandering, enshrining voting rights in the state Constitution, and running qualified candidates.  Michigan can be a model for other states with too-narrow Democratic majorities thwarted by Republican chicanery.  In particular, next door neighbor Wisconsin, a state we will be watching closely and likely be supporting more actively in 2024.

Great job, everyone!

Open thread.

FacebookTweetEmail
Previous Post: « TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: #NotAllFridaysTheThirteenth
Next Post: Not Enough Old English in the World… »

Reader Interactions

  • Commenters
  • Filtered
  • Settings

Commenters

No commenters available.

  • Almost Retired
  • AM in NC
  • Barry
  • Baud
  • billcinsd
  • Bnad
  • caphilldcne
  • CaseyL
  • CatRadio
  • Chat Noir
  • cmorenc
  • Emily B.
  • Fair Economist
  • Fake Irishman
  • FelonyGovt
  • frosty
  • geg6
  • Geminid
  • H.E.Wolf
  • James E Powell
  • JaySinWA
  • Jesse
  • Jim, Foolish Literalist
  • jobeth
  • Johnny C. Lately
  • Josie
  • kalakal
  • Kelly
  • Ken
  • la caterina
  • MisterForkbeard
  • Mo Salad
  • Mousebumples
  • Omnes Omnibus
  • PBK
  • piratedan
  • Princess
  • Professor Bigfoot
  • RaflW
  • Raven
  • raven
  • Redshift
  • rikyrah
  • Roger Moore
  • Soprano2
  • trollhattan
  • Two rabbits
  • WaterGirl
  • WereBear

Filtered Commenters

No filtered commenters available.

    Settings




    Settings are saved immediately; press X to close the box.

    97Comments

    1. 1.

      WereBear

      January 13, 2023 at 12:11 pm

      This is great news, Watergirl! I remember the good news about Michigan, and feeling glad I was on the Zoom and got to meet some of these amazing people.

      Reply
    2. 2.

      Johnny C. Lately

      January 13, 2023 at 12:18 pm

      Great news!

       

      But don’t call Whitmer “Big Gretch”.

       

      It looks cool in text but sounds terrible when spoken.

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Jim, Foolish Literalist

      January 13, 2023 at 12:19 pm

      @Johnny C. Lately: d’oh! I guess I never said it out loud before

      Reply
    4. 4.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 12:19 pm

      I didn’t want to make the post itself too long, but I want to add a bit more about Promote the Vote here.

      Promote the Vote (Michigan) is a coalition of organizations dedicated to preserving and protecting voting rights in Michigan, especially in disadvantaged communities.

      When we first contacted them earlier this year, Promote the Vote already had a track record. In 2018, Promote the Vote was instrumental in supporting Proposal 2, a state ballot initiative that created Michigan’s Independent Citizen Redistricting Commission, thoroughly undermining Michigan Republicans’ efforts to solidify minority control through gerrymandering.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Almost Retired

      January 13, 2023 at 12:20 pm

      This is wonderful.  The VAAC Zoom was the best we’ve had with groups we are supporting (so far).  Inspiring and fun.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Ken

      January 13, 2023 at 12:21 pm

      And all without even one double-secret document laying out Michigan’s quid pro quo for our support.  Well, maybe we’ll get better at this “politics” stuff with practice.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      kalakal

      January 13, 2023 at 12:21 pm

      Great stuff!

      Reply
    8. 8.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 12:22 pm

      @Almost Retired: That really was a great zoom.  I think everyone who was on the zoom – from both organizations – felt like they had found kindred spirits.

      Definitely the beginning of a beautiful friendship.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 12:23 pm

      @Ken: You’re right!  We laid out all this money, and what did we get in return?  Nothing!  //

      Except for the great relationships.  And we got to keep our democracy. :-)

      Reply
    10. 10.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 12:26 pm

      @Johnny C. Lately: I’m not sure what you think it sounds like when spoken, but I edited the post.  I 💕 Gretchen Whitmer, and I think she might be president some day.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Roger Moore

      January 13, 2023 at 12:29 pm

      running qualified candidates

      This can be harder than it looks. It’s fine if you have a basically functional party apparatus and a farm system in lower-level offices, but not every state has that.  Building up when you aren’t even bringing in qualified candidates is really hard.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 12:31 pm

      If you guys think these posts will be boring, let me know.  I just think it’s important to pause for a minute, take stock, figure out what worked and what we might want to do differently next time.  And to celebrate our wins!

      Imagine if we hadn’t kept the senate, all this craziness in the House would be 10x more distressing, I think.

      I think it can also serve as a reminder that dire predictions don’t always come true.

      We did a lot here on BJ to positively impact the results of the election.  Does anyone here have regrets that you didn’t do more?  Unlikely, but if you do, we’ll be starting another round of work this spring, so you get another chance.

      In my opinion, since we can’t control the outcome, no regrets is the name of the game.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      Josie

      January 13, 2023 at 12:34 pm

      @WaterGirl: ​ The posts are far from being boring. It gives me hope that we can continue to support the work that people are doing in this state and in others. This kind of work is vital to our democracy.​

      Reply
    14. 14.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 12:35 pm

      @Roger Moore: Yep.  But we don’t have to win every state.  Thankfully!

      Reply
    15. 15.

      caphilldcne

      January 13, 2023 at 12:36 pm

      I think these posts are awesome and I’m especially pleased about being able to contribute in small part to my home state of Michigan.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Bnad

      January 13, 2023 at 12:37 pm

      Don’t forget, there’s a Wisconsin Supreme Court election this April that could flip the WI Supreme Court from 4-3 right to 4-3 left.  The current WI Supreme Court is a big part of the reason WI is gerrymandered for one party control.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 12:39 pm

      @Bnad: Yep.  We’ll be on that link [insert your favorite phrase here]!

      Reply
    18. 18.

      Almost Retired

      January 13, 2023 at 12:41 pm

      I never thought of Michigan as having a large Native American population, but (as we learned from Four Directions), Michigan has one of the 10 largest NA populations in the US – nearly 100,000 people; enough to swing a close election!

      Reply
    19. 19.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 12:44 pm

      @Roger Moore: Do you think we should try in states that seem to be lost causes?  Or do you think we only focus on states where there’s at least a chance?

      Reply
    20. 20.

      CatRadio

      January 13, 2023 at 12:49 pm

      Love this, Balloon Juice helping to keep democracy in the hands of the people instead of the bloodthirsty terrorists of Michigan!

      PS: I lived in Reed City for 6 months during the Vietnam war. Deer-hunting season began Thanksgiving week, and guns, booze and snowmobile parties were a nightly event for the locals.

      I guess for some, “the season” never ends: democrats became the new deer.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Omnes Omnibus

      January 13, 2023 at 12:51 pm

      @Bnad: That one election could reboot WI completely.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      H.E.Wolf

      January 13, 2023 at 12:52 pm

      Thank you for this post! I appreciate the clear layout of the issues, the actions, and the results. We did this with your leadership – please take a well-earned bow!

      Everyone who participated, please take your bows also! It was a fantastic group effort, and (speaking for myself) such a lift to the spirits to see it happening over the many months of the election cycle.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      piratedan

      January 13, 2023 at 12:58 pm

      @WaterGirl: I would consider it part of doing the hard work that we promote to start building foundations in states that have been written off as “lost causes”.  It took roughly 8 years in AZ from self-reflection to game plan to implementation of the plan to results (and its STILL a work in progress).  Building coalitions and working together takes time and networking to bring people with common cause together.

      So… we ask the question, why not us?

      Reply
    24. 24.

      Two rabbits

      January 13, 2023 at 12:59 pm

      Thanks for the write up, WaterGirl!!  And all the work you and BJ did, fundraising and organizing!

      I think it has been 40 years since we had D majority in the state house and senate.  Very happy about the redistricting and living in an area that flipped to all Democrats for offices.   And all are women, excepting Sam Singh, who I know is also very good.

      I usually go with “that woman from Michigan” for Gov Whitmer.

      Reply
    25. 25.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 1:00 pm

      @piratedan: Think about how long it took Georgia?  Stacey Abrams started The New Georgia project in 2010!

      Reply
    26. 26.

      jobeth

      January 13, 2023 at 1:05 pm

      Do these organizations track numbers of their results – how many voters they registered, follow up on how many of them voted – for example?  Are these available?

      Reply
    27. 27.

      piratedan

      January 13, 2023 at 1:06 pm

      @WaterGirl: agreed, I understand we are small but mighty, but the seeds we sow may take time to grow, but I believe that we can do both, help nurture groups that are busy fighting the good fight.  Unsure if we can tackle Texas or Florida, but Wisconsin? Nevada? Montana?, North Carolina?   I think we can help make differences there.

       

      Upon reflection, I would even include Mississippi and Louisiana here.  Some states may need a nudge, others a shove, and yet others a lift…..

      Reply
    28. 28.

      rikyrah

      January 13, 2023 at 1:08 pm

      CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP

       

      I am so pleased by what happened in Michigan. It was getting sorta lonely in the Midwest for Illinois.

      Reply
    29. 29.

      Mo Salad

      January 13, 2023 at 1:11 pm

      Thank you all for splashing the cash in my state.

      I truly appreciate it.

      Reply
    30. 30.

      Baud

      January 13, 2023 at 1:12 pm

      @piratedan:

      Building coalitions and working together takes time and networking to bring people with common cause together.

      I think one of the anti-silver-linings to Obama’s big win 2008 is that a lot of people thought we are on the cusp of rapid change, and the “work and time” part of it sort of fell by the wayside for a long time.

      Reply
    31. 31.

      Chat Noir

      January 13, 2023 at 1:14 pm

      The ladies are in charge in Michigan! Also, AG Dana Nessel is a self-professed crazy cat lady.

      Reply
    32. 32.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 1:18 pm

      @jobeth: Excellent question.  I takes awhile for the dust to settle.

      We are planning to do followup meetings with the various boots on the ground organizations we gave money to.

      The zooms with the various organizations don’t usually have a wide attendance, but I believe the BJ peeps who come to the zooms are usually very glad they did.

      It’s not clear, though, whether we will invite everyone to the follow up zooms, or if we will have a followup session with just a couple of us meeting with each group, which we would record and make available to everyone on BJ.

      For the followup conversation, we have two goals in mind: 1) *what they were able to do with our funds, and 2) voting turnout for the targeted populations and effectiveness / results of their work.

      Those conversations won’t necessarily be state-specific.  For instance, we funded Four Directions in 5 states, and we funded the Worker Power group in 2 states.  So we would have one meeting with each group and talk about efforts and results for all the states that received our funds.

      Reply
    33. 33.

      Princess

      January 13, 2023 at 1:25 pm

      @WaterGirl: the opposite of boring. Fascinating and useful.

      Reply
    34. 34.

      geg6

      January 13, 2023 at 1:26 pm

      This is great to see.  I would really love to see some of our energy and $$ going to try to get the PA legislature under Dem control.  A lot of the problems in this state can be directly attributed to the GQP majorities in the House and Senate.  Yes, we finally have an infinitely small majority in the House now, but it’s teetering on the edge and the Senate is still heavily GQP.  Our Dem governors can’t do much without the legislature in Dem hands.  We could do what Michigan did if we had some major organizing and $$.

      Reply
    35. 35.

      CaseyL

      January 13, 2023 at 1:27 pm

      Not a boring post at all!  It’s great to do a post-op analysis, to see that our money and efforts were well spent, and use that a springboard forward.

      And I’d love it if we could do the same in Wisconsin.  The state Supreme Court election looks like a project worth getting behind.

      I think, in the future, we may want to focus on state-level elections, particularly legislatures and Attorneys General.

      SCOTUS is poised to rule on the crackpot ISL case, and even if they don’t go as far as the Right wants them to, it’s a dead cert they will rule in a way that makes it much harder to challenge voter suppression and outright voter nullification.

      Another case making its way to SCOTUS is also horrifying: removing the right of private action from what’s left of the VRA.   SCOTUS is likely to rule there is no such thing as a right of private action: that suits brought under the VRA have to come from Attorneys General.  This is insane on its very face, but that’s the way SCOTUS rolls these days and we need to be ready.  Hence my thought that we need to pay extra attention to those races.

      Reply
    36. 36.

      raven

      January 13, 2023 at 1:29 pm

      I’m sorry but all I could think about when I saw the headline was “BJ is writing about TCU”!!!

      Reply
    37. 37.

      H.E.Wolf

      January 13, 2023 at 1:29 pm

      @geg6:”This is great to see. I would really love to see some of our energy and $$ going to try to get the PA legislature under Dem control.”

       
      Anyone with postcard energy out there? Great opportunity right now, for a special election to the PA State legislature!

      Postcards To Voters’ Twitter feed has the info:
      https://twitter.com/DemocratWit/status/1612911769051078656

      Reply
    38. 38.

      la caterina

      January 13, 2023 at 1:30 pm

      @WaterGirl: More of these , please! It’s very satisfying!

      Reply
    39. 39.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 1:30 pm

      @WaterGirl:

      As a followup to my comment #32:

      *The thing about early money in states, like we did with Four Directions, is that efforts don’t necessarily take off in all of those states.

      Early money is seed money.  They say it’s also like yeast.

      Not every seed sprouts, and not every batch of bread with yeast rises.

      So with Four Directions, I think we’ll find that not every dollar that was earmarked for a particular state ended up being spent in that particular state.

      So maybe Georgia didn’t take off as we hoped it would – until the runoff where Four Directions was very active – and maybe some of the Wisconsin funds we raised ended up being used in Nevada, where their GOTV operation was huge.

      Anyway, I think the followup conversations will be super interesting.  To me, at least!

      Reply
    40. 40.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 1:33 pm

      @raven:  Laughing!  Sorry to disappoint. :-)

      Reply
    41. 41.

      AM in NC

      January 13, 2023 at 1:34 pm

      Thank you Water Girl, for this follow-up post and all of your FLAMAZING work this past election cycle.  The focus on states is so so smart and pays such high dividends!

      Hoping that WI and NC can also benefit from these strategies and funding in the future.  I LOVE the juicer community!

      Reply
    42. 42.

      MisterForkbeard

      January 13, 2023 at 1:35 pm

      @Omnes Omnibus: We’ve been here before, haven’t we?

      The rightwing ideologues keep narrowly retaining control of the WI Supreme Court, and (like the Federal SC) keep making precedent-defying decisions that just coincidentally benefit Republicans.

      Reply
    43. 43.

      MisterForkbeard

      January 13, 2023 at 1:37 pm

      @CaseyL:

      SCOTUS is likely to rule there is no such thing as a right of private action: that suits brought under the VRA have to come from Attorneys General.  This is insane on its very face, but that’s the way SCOTUS rolls these days and we need to be ready.  Hence my thought that we need to pay extra attention to those races.

      That IS nuts. “The people whom this law is intended to control and prohibit are the gatekeepers for deciding if the law can be invoked” is complete and utter nonsense.

      Reply
    44. 44.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 1:38 pm

      @H.E.Wolf: Yes, Cole said no fundraising until Spring, and I am trying to honor that, of course, but I am *chomping at the bit to get started with special elections.

      We may have to have some postcard writing parties in the meantime.  I was amazed at how close the Rouse special election was, so no one can convince me that postcards didn’t make a difference in that one!

      *The google tells me that chomping and champing are both acceptable, and I grew up with chomping.

      I wonder if the first 60-degree day in February can be counted as Spring?  :-)

      Reply
    45. 45.

      RaflW

      January 13, 2023 at 1:39 pm

      We’ve done, and continue to do, great stuff.

      And, we’ve been making inroads in WI too. Evers squeaked thru, thank Pasta. But I’m worried about the WI state Supreme’s election in less that five weeks.

      This is what WI progressives and POC are up against: “It is deplorable that someone who serves as an election commissioner is able to brag about turnout being down in the Black and Brown communities. It’s sick. He has no business remaining on the Wisconsin Election Commission with that type of ideology.”

      But of course 2020 fake elector and Republican Commissioner Bob Spindell was just re-appointed to another term by the corrupt and totally unrepresentative WI legislature.

      Reply
    46. 46.

      Redshift

      January 13, 2023 at 1:41 pm

      One thing we could look for in difficult states is local groups working on candidate recruitment and early support.

      When I first got active in politics, back when Howard Dean told his supporters to go get involved in their local Democratic party, the project I took on was to revive the committee on state issues, and focus it on making sure we had candidates for every legislative race in the county in 2005, particularly the ones that weren’t considered “competitive.”

      We were pretty successful, and the end result was the the beginning of the Democrats taking back the House (and probably helping Tim Kaine get elected.) Showing you can win in places the people in charge don’t think are worth investing in is powerful. People like winning and want to be a part of it.

      Reply
    47. 47.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 1:43 pm

      @geg6:

      I would really love to see some of our energy and $$ going to try to get the PA legislature under Dem control.

      8 of our 22 races we supported in our proof-of-concept down-ballot races in super-swing states effort we for the PA house and PA senate, so I like to think that the $20,000 we donated to those PA races helped with the PA results.

      More on that when we get to the post about the down ballot races in super swing states.

      Reply
    48. 48.

      Roger Moore

      January 13, 2023 at 1:45 pm

      @WaterGirl:

      But we don’t have to win every state.

      I think we should be trying, though.  Not just to improve our chances nationally, but also because we shouldn’t abandon the people in deep Red states.

      Reply
    49. 49.

      Roger Moore

      January 13, 2023 at 1:47 pm

      @WaterGirl:

      Do you think we should try in states that seem to be lost causes? Or do you think we only focus on states where there’s at least a chance?

      That’s a tough question.  I think it makes sense for Balloon-Juice, as a comparatively small-time money raiser to focus on where that money can do the most immediate good, which is states where there’s a chance.  I think the national Democratic Party needs to focus on rebuilding the party apparatus from the ground up in places where it’s not functioning.

      Reply
    50. 50.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 1:48 pm

      @Roger Moore:

      I think we should be trying, though.

      We, the Democratic Party?  Or “we” as in Balloon Juice?

      I ask because I think the key word in our targeted fundraising successes this year is TARGETED, and if we try to support every state and every raced, I think we would be spreading ourselves way too thin

      edit: we clearly need someone on Balloon Juice to win the lottery!  Everybody buy a ticket. :-)

      edit 2: You were answering my question as I was still typing it, apparently!

      Reply
    51. 51.

      Soprano2

      January 13, 2023 at 2:02 pm

      Yet another story in the series “The reason Republicans think Democrats cheat in elections is because they’re always cheating” from TPM. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/iowa-republican-politicians-wife-indicted-for-alleged-voter-fraud-scheme

      Reply
    52. 52.

      Jesse

      January 13, 2023 at 2:02 pm

      @WaterGirl: not at all boring! We need to do these. Thanks, also too, for your hard work putting this together. And for all the angels, named and unnamed.

      Reply
    53. 53.

      CaseyL

      January 13, 2023 at 2:06 pm

      @MisterForkbeard:

      That IS nuts. “The people whom this law is intended to control and prohibit are the gatekeepers for deciding if the law can be invoked” is complete and utter nonsense.

      Yes.  it is exactly that.

      That’s the same insanity as the ISL propagates: the State Legislature, being allowed to distort the electoral process for its own benefit, is also allowed to make any law it wants without the Governor or State Court horning in.

      Blatantly and plainly authoritarian; and we’re stuck with these shitweasels for the next 30+ years.

      Reply
    54. 54.

      trollhattan

      January 13, 2023 at 2:07 pm

      As the (glug) rain returns yet again to California the National Integrated Drought Information System has promising news for all western US jackals. Maybe Canada too, but y’all are on your own.

      A continuous barrage of atmospheric rivers have made landfall in central and northern California, spreading copious amounts of mountain snowfall in the Sierra Nevada, Great Basin, and parts of the Upper Colorado River Basin.
      Snow water equivalent (SWE) is currently at 200% to over 300% of normal for much of this region, with record high SWE for this time of year at a number of SNOTEL sites in the Sierra Nevada.
      There are still small areas of snow drought in isolated regions, including the Sangre De Cristo Mountains, straddling the New Mexico-Colorado border.
      The northern Rockies is another region to keep an eye on, with many locations at near-to-slightly below normal SWE in northern Idaho, western Montana, and northern Wyoming.

      https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/snow-drought-current-conditions-and-impacts-west-2023-01-12

      It’s too early to spike the snowball but with numbers like these, a halt to storms like we saw last year will still leave a decent to normal snowpack. No indication of the storm door closing, either.

      Think of it as the drought taking a vacation because it can easily return next season. In the meantime, keep an eye on those rivers.

      Reply
    55. 55.

      frosty

      January 13, 2023 at 2:09 pm

      @Baud: ​The anti-silver lining I saw from Obama was his OFA organization was the best I’ve seen in my corner of PA…. and then it all vanished and we started from scratch for the next election.

      Reply
    56. 56.

      Professor Bigfoot

      January 13, 2023 at 2:10 pm

      @Johnny C. Lately: since a Detroit rapper gave her the moniker and she seems to like it, why are you against it?

      Governor Whitmer earns Detroit street Cred

      Reply
    57. 57.

      Omnes Omnibus

      January 13, 2023 at 2:10 pm

      @MisterForkbeard: That is a way of looking at it.  It isn’t the one I would choose though.

      Reply
    58. 58.

      JaySinWA

      January 13, 2023 at 2:11 pm

      @WaterGirl: One area where a small group could make a difference even in lost cause states could be in targeting prevention of super majorities. Keeping hope alive and limiting damage.

      Reply
    59. 59.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 2:12 pm

      @Jesse: Yes!  Without the external matches and the angels inspiring donations, I would be surprised if we would be able to raise nearly as much as we do.

      I am very proud that we don’t tell a penny of the donations for Balloon Juice.  Rounding a bit, if we took even 1% of what we raise, that’s $10,000 that would not be going to candidates or boots on the ground.

      And some of these groups, including some on the Democratic side, take a hell of a lot more than 1%.

      Reply
    60. 60.

      Baud

      January 13, 2023 at 2:13 pm

      @frosty: Yeah, I’ve heard people say that.  I don’t know the answer, but we should never be in a position where everything depends on one person or organization.

      Reply
    61. 61.

      frosty

      January 13, 2023 at 2:13 pm

      @WaterGirl: Spring = pitchers and catchers report?

      Reply
    62. 62.

      Kelly

      January 13, 2023 at 2:23 pm

      @trollhattan: Wow, the Oregon Coast Range is the only red patch on that map. Snowpack has a trivial contribution to that watershed so not a real worry.

      Reply
    63. 63.

      FelonyGovt

      January 13, 2023 at 2:24 pm

      @WaterGirl: Thanks so much for all your efforts! This post was SO not boring- it was a breath of fresh air. Our help Four Directions means a lot to me personally, and that Zoom with VAAC was wonderful. We made a difference!

      Reply
    64. 64.

      FelonyGovt

      January 13, 2023 at 2:28 pm

      @frosty: That’s MY definition of Spring :)

      Reply
    65. 65.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 2:34 pm

      @frosty: What’s the date on that? :-)

      Reply
    66. 66.

      Almost Retired

      January 13, 2023 at 2:44 pm

      @Omnes Omnibus:   There seems to be two Democrats running for the open WI Supreme Court seat.  Any thoughts on who has the better chance?

      Also, is there an initiative process in Wisconsin?  Because I wondered if the Michigan model would work:  circumvent the Republican Legislature with an anti-gerrymandering initiative and protect it’s passage with a Supreme Court majority?

      Wisconsin should NOT be a red state.

      Reply
    67. 67.

      Josie

      January 13, 2023 at 2:45 pm

      @WaterGirl: Would it be possible to put up information on how to donate to the Wisconsin Supreme Court race without setting a particular goal? Maybe John Cole would agree to that.

      Reply
    68. 68.

      trollhattan

      January 13, 2023 at 2:50 pm

      @Kelly: Do you have burn scars in the area to keep an eye on with heavy rain? One of the love/hate aspects of a wet winter.

      Reply
    69. 69.

      FelonyGovt

      January 13, 2023 at 2:51 pm

      @WaterGirl: February 13.

      Reply
    70. 70.

      Almost Retired

      January 13, 2023 at 2:55 pm

      @Josie:    There are two democratic candidates running in an ostensibly non-partisan Supreme Court race.  Here are links to their campaign websites with donation buttons:

      Judge Mitchell:  https://www.judgeeverettmitchell.com/

      and Janet Protasiewicz:  https://www.janetforjustice.com/

      Don’t know who is the front-runner or better candidate, although Judge Mitchell seems like it to me (based on very little) — paging Omnes!!

      ETA  Here’s a “meet the candidates” site:  https://pbswisconsin.org/news-item/meet-the-candidates-running-in-the-2023-wisconsin-supreme-court-primary/

      Reply
    71. 71.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 3:00 pm

      @Josie: I will be lobbying John re: special elections, and that one in particular, once things have settled down for him a bit.

      He just doesn’t want anyone to think that we think you guys are ATM machines.  I share that sentiment, too, but the difference is that I am likely closer to the comments than he is.

      I think everyone here knows that all giving is voluntary, and that depending on how much discretionary income you have, one person’s $10 can be just as generous as another person’s $1,000.

      The other difference is that this isn’t my blog.  John hates to talk about money.  I can ask for money all day long as long as it’s not for me and I don’t get anything out of it personally.

      So I’m hopeful that we will indeed be able to contribute to the special election in Wisconsin.

      Reply
    72. 72.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 3:01 pm

      @FelonyGovt: Oh, I can see how Valentine’s Day could be considered spring.

      Let’s hope that Cole can, too. :-)

      Reply
    73. 73.

      Fake Irishman

      January 13, 2023 at 3:03 pm

      @Almost Retired:

       

      It’s a technically non-partisan top-2 jungle primary. Daily Kos elections (which is a solid outfit) has endorsed the woman judge from Milwaukee for the Dems (protasiwicz). The fear is that you could end up with both Republicans slipping through.

      Reply
    74. 74.

      Kelly

      January 13, 2023 at 3:03 pm

      @trollhattan: Much, much less that I expected. The first big rain after the fires the river ran black for 2 days. Since then sediment load has looked ordinary. A lot of salvage logging since the September 2020 fires which also seems to be an erosion risk but no extraordinary changes to the rivers or apparent landslides. We’re at confluence of 2 drainages hard hit by the Beachie Fire. The US Forest Service tried to end run environmental impact statements and was tried up in court until just a few months ago so one of the largest landholders in the fire perimeter hasn’t done much salvage logging at all

      ETA: A lot more driftwood on the riverbanks. The burnt stuff is rather beautiful after the rivers polish it.

      Reply
    75. 75.

      Almost Retired

      January 13, 2023 at 3:06 pm

      @Fake Irishman:  Gotcha.  I see there’s a top two primary election in February with two dems and two repubs, but the top two survivors election is not until April.

      Reply
    76. 76.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 3:07 pm

      @Fake Irishman: I wonder if Wis*Dems are taking sides in the primary – I would guess that they are not.

      On the other hand, for all I know, the jungle primary might make that play very different.

      I would probably wait until I know where the Wis*Dems stand on this before getting involved.

      Paging Omnes.  And Wis*Dems.  And the folks at Voces de la Frontera.  It will be interesting to see whether there is an unofficial preference for candidates between Wis*Dems and Voces.

      Again, since we’re always thinking “strategic”, what we likely want to do is contribute to boots on the ground organizations like Voces and Wis*Dems, not to individual candidates.

      What we need first is higher DEM turnout for the primary.

      Reply
    77. 77.

      billcinsd

      January 13, 2023 at 3:19 pm

      @Roger Moore: The thing is, the national apparati are already heavily focused on the at least a reasonable chance and better races, so BJ money is probably not that needed in those

      Reply
    78. 78.

      billcinsd

      January 13, 2023 at 3:20 pm

      @Soprano2: She only voted 23 times. It’s why EAIAC is always apropos

      Reply
    79. 79.

      trollhattan

      January 13, 2023 at 3:25 pm

      @Kelly: Sounds promising!

      We have certain burn areas in CA where the intense heat, to use the wrong term, vitrifies the soil surface to where water can’t easily penetrate. Huge debris flows as a consequence.

      Reply
    80. 80.

      Raven

      January 13, 2023 at 3:32 pm

      @WaterGirl: Not at all, I would have been shocked if it had been!

      Reply
    81. 81.

      Geminid

      January 13, 2023 at 3:34 pm

      @WaterGirl: I think these threads have impact beyond the dollars raised. So a thread on this or other elections would have value even without raising money.

      Reply
    82. 82.

      Omnes Omnibus

      January 13, 2023 at 3:38 pm

      @Almost Retired: Either would be good, but I lean toward Mitchell.  More reform oriented. The other is a more standard ex-prosecutor turned judge.

      Reply
    83. 83.

      PBK

      January 13, 2023 at 3:52 pm

      @Geminid: Agree.  Many thanks to everyone who contributed and to WaterGirl for all the organizing!

      Reply
    84. 84.

      H.E.Wolf

      January 13, 2023 at 4:04 pm

      @WaterGirl: ​
       I think “no fundraising until spring” is excellent. A fallow season is healthy in both agriculture and fundraising, and many of us are independent cusses who can research and donate solo during the hiatus if we want to. :)

      Postcard writers and postcard writers-to-be: If you buy your stamps this coming week, you’ll save 4 cents per postcard stamp – the rate is being DeJoyed from 44 to 48 cents on Jan. 23.

      Reply
    85. 85.

      Mousebumples

      January 13, 2023 at 4:04 pm

      @WaterGirl: Late to the thread, but stamp prices are going up later this month. I bought extra postcard stamps the last time I was at the Post Office. 😊

      And the Wisconsin primary is in February. I doubt WisDems will take sides until after that. The top 2 “non-partisan” candidates advancing will likely mean 1 conservative and 1 liberal. In the meantime, I’m continuing my monthly WisDems contribution.

      Reply
    86. 86.

      Omnes Omnibus

      January 13, 2023 at 4:06 pm

      @Fake Irishman: You could also end up with both Dems making it through.  Just saying.

      Reply
    87. 87.

      Emily B.

      January 13, 2023 at 4:09 pm

      Yes, please, to the postcard parties!

      Reply
    88. 88.

      CaseyL

      January 13, 2023 at 4:23 pm

      This may be a dead thread, but I thought I’d share this:

      The special elections to fill two vacant Pa. House seats will be held Tuesday, Feb. 7, a court ruled, in a victory for Democrats, who had sought the earlier date, while Republicans sought to delay the vote to May 16.

      …if anyone wants to postcard for these special elections.

      Reply
    89. 89.

      Barry

      January 13, 2023 at 4:50 pm

      Thank you for posting this, WaterGirl!

      Reply
    90. 90.

      cmorenc

      January 13, 2023 at 6:34 pm

      Wisconsin seems like a worthy next focus – gop vote suppression in the Milwaukee area was by itself enough to give johnson his 25k margin win in the 2023 us senate race, and unlike ohio and florida, there don’t seem to be the sort of rightward demographic tidal forces in the electorate we would have to swim upstream against.  Gop wins in wisconsin are mostly by very small margins in recent years, which aren’t widening.

      Reply
    91. 91.

      RaflW

      January 13, 2023 at 7:08 pm

      @Roger Moore: My strategy in a few ‘lost cause’ states is to fund local races or party units. Like the Tarrant County Dems – the county Ft Worth is in. The county was quite Republican not that long ago, but the demographics are changing and having Dem mayors, city council members (not just in Ft.W but in suburban ‘purple’ cities and towns) can help keep the state GOP over-reach at least a little bit in check. Look at Harris County judge Linda Hidalgo

      I went to college in Ft. Worth, though, so that selection isn’t random.

      Reply
    92. 92.

      Fair Economist

      January 13, 2023 at 7:26 pm

      Great job, everybody. And great job, Watergirl!

      All in on WI next.

      Reply
    93. 93.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 8:07 pm

      We’ll be reporting on Arizona and Nevada early next week, likely on Monday.

      Reply
    94. 94.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 8:39 pm

      The first postcard writing party & music thread of the year is scheduled for this coming Tuesday at 8 pm blog time.  (aka Eastern)

      I think H.E. Wolf has a link at #37 so I’ll copy it here to get you started.

      Postcards To Voters’ Twitter feed has the info:

      https://twitter.com/DemocratWit/status/161291176905107865

      And maybe Mousebumples will chime in as well.

      Reply
    95. 95.

      Mousebumples

      January 13, 2023 at 8:49 pm

      @WaterGirl: Thanks, WaterGirl!

      I’m not sure if MazeDancer is doing (small) special election postcards, but if you’d like to join us, #PostcardsToVoters has one campaign going on now (which is linked above).

      To join #PostcardsToVoters –

      1. Email [email protected] OR
      2. Text JOIN to 484-275-2229

      Once you’re an approved #PostcardsToVoters writer, you can use email, texting, or Abby the Address Bot to get more addresses.

      I’m looking forward to more postcards, and more music! Hope to see you guys then!

      Reply
    96. 96.

      James E Powell

      January 13, 2023 at 9:27 pm

      @WaterGirl:

      Do you think we should try in states that seem to be lost causes?  Or do you think we only focus on states where there’s at least a chance?

      Build on our growing strengths in AZ, GA, and NC. Shore up the shaky states like NV & WI.

      Reply
    97. 97.

      WaterGirl

      January 13, 2023 at 9:57 pm

      @James E Powell: Yeah, I asked the question because I wanted to understand what he was saying.  But I land pretty much where you are:  the states we supported for 2022 (AZ, GA, MI, NV, WI) and NC, which seems like a great opportunity.

      P.S.  Dear NY and CA, please get your shit together with the House seats.

      Reply

    Leave a Comment

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

    If you don't see both the Visual and the Text tab on the editor, click here to refresh.

    Clear Comment

    To reply to more than one person, click the X to save & close the box.

    Primary Sidebar

    🎈Keep Balloon Juice Ad Free

    Become a Balloon Juice Patreon
    Donate with Venmo, Zelle or PayPal

    2023 Pet Calendars

    Pet Calendar Preview: A
    Pet Calendar Preview: B

    *Calendars can not be ordered until Cafe Press gets their calendar paper in.

    Recent Comments

    • Planetjanet on War for Ukraine Day 344: Bakhmut! (Feb 3, 2023 @ 8:50pm)
    • sab on Friday Evening Open Thread: Spy-by Flyby (Feb 3, 2023 @ 8:50pm)
    • YY_Sima Qian on Friday Evening Open Thread: Spy-by Flyby (Feb 3, 2023 @ 8:48pm)
    • brantl on Friday Evening Open Thread: Spy-by Flyby (Feb 3, 2023 @ 8:47pm)
    • Baud on Friday Evening Open Thread: Spy-by Flyby (Feb 3, 2023 @ 8:47pm)

    Balloon Juice Posts

    View by Topic
    View by Author
    View by Month & Year
    View by Past Author

    Featuring

    Medium Cool
    Artists in Our Midst
    Authors in Our Midst
    We All Need A Little Kindness
    Favorite Dogs & Cats
    Classified Documents: A Primer

    Calling All Jackals

    Site Feedback
    Nominate a Rotating Tag
    Submit Photos to On the Road
    Balloon Juice Mailing List Signup

    Front-pager Twitter

    John Cole
    DougJ (aka NYT Pitchbot)
    Betty Cracker
    Tom Levenson
    TaMara
    David Anderson
    ActualCitizensUnited

    Shop Amazon via this link to support Balloon Juice   

    Join the Fight!

    Join the Fight Signup Form
    All Join the Fight Posts

    Balloon Juice Events

    5/14  The Apocalypse
    5/20  Home Away from Home
    5/29  We’re Back, Baby
    7/21  Merging!

    Balloon Juice for Ukraine

    Donate

    Site Footer

    Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

    • Facebook
    • RSS
    • Twitter
    • YouTube
    • Comment Policy
    • Our Authors
    • Blogroll
    • Our Artists
    • Privacy Policy

    Copyright © 2023 Dev Balloon Juice · All Rights Reserved · Powered by BizBudding Inc

    Insert/edit link

    Enter the destination URL

    Or link to existing content

      No search term specified. Showing recent items. Search or use up and down arrow keys to select an item.
        Share this ArticleLike this article? Email it to a friend!

        Email sent!