The young woman in the photo is 23 years old.
In September, she lost her loved one in the war. Today, she lost her home. She was rescued, but her parents are still under the rubble, their fate unknown. pic.twitter.com/KmrNNCG35T— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 14, 2023
I have no words, I have no emotions, I feel nothing but a great emptiness inside pic.twitter.com/A4teqJHq9s
— Sofia Ukraini (@SlavaUk30722777) January 15, 2023
.@ZelenskyyUa
Dnipro.
As of now, 39 people were rescued, including 6 children. 25 people died, including 1 child. 73 people were injured, including 13 children. 43 people are missing.
Preliminary 72 apartments were destroyed and more than 230 apartments were damaged. pic.twitter.com/EpjdpecVWV— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 15, 2023
We’ll have more about the aftermath of the attack on Dnipro after President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. The video is below, English transcript after the jump:
Fellow Ukrainians!
Today I have been receiving reports from Dnipro all day. The debris is being cleared there. All necessary services are involved. Thanks to everyone who is carrying out the rescue operation! I thank the State Emergency Service, the police and the National Guard. I want to thank the utility services, our doctors, all volunteers, ordinary citizens of Dnipro who are helping!
As of now, the fate of more than 30 people who could have been in the house at the time of the terrorists’ missile hit remains unknown.
Dozens of people were rescued from the rubble, including six children. We are fighting for every person! The rescue operation will last as long as there is even the slightest chance to save lives.
Currently, the list of the dead includes 30 people, including one child – a girl, she was 15 years old.
There are reports that two children lost their parents. My condolences to all those who lost their loved ones…
Since the attack, Ukraine has heard words of condolences and support from many leaders, public figures, journalists and ordinary people from around the world. I thank everyone who did not remain indifferent! It is very important that normal people unite in response to terror.
But…
I want to say to all those in Russia – and from Russia – who even now could not utter even a few words of condemnation of this terror… Even though they see and know everything perfectly well…
Your cowardly silence, your attempt to “wait out” what is happening will only end with those same terrorists coming after you one day.
Evil is very sensitive to cowardice.
Evil always remembers those who fear it or try to bargain with it. And when it comes after you, there will be no one to protect you.
I think it is right that today there is a decision to expand our sanctions against Russian citizens and other persons who help terror.
Almost 200 – this list is carefully prepared, and behind each name there is a responsible motivation. Those who justify terror. Those who grease the Russian propaganda machine. Those who tried to sell Ukraine somewhere in Moscow. This public will face a full list of personal restrictions. We will do everything to make the sanctions work on the largest possible scale – in Europe, in the world.
Everyone will be held to account for terror: both those who kill and those who help to kill.
The work of the NSDC on the sanctions lists continues, and the next decisions will be made soon.
Today, as always, I want to thank our warriors. All those who heroically and steadfastly perform combat missions. Those who hold our positions. And especially in the most difficult areas of the front. The battle for Soledar, for Bakhmut, for the whole Donetsk region, for the Luhansk region continues without any respite, without any stop.
I am grateful to each of our fighters, each of our soldiers, sergeants, officers who understand how important it is to destroy the invaders in this direction. Russia has made the battle for the cities of our Donbas fundamental for itself. Our heroes make this battle fundamental for the destruction of the combat potential of the terrorist state.
Every day of Ukrainian resilience in Donbas and every success in our defense there are vital achievements for the protection of our entire state.
And one more thing.
Today a great friend of Ukraine, a legend – Vakhtang Kikabidze – passed away. We can talk a lot about him, and still there are not enough words to say all the good things that are worth saying about him.
It is an honor for us that he was our friend. May his memory be bright!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Kremenna:
KREMINNA /1510 UTC 15 JAN/ UKR units are confirmed to be in contact within the city limits of Kreminna. Back and forth fighting continues in the south and central suburban areas as RU has conducted fire missions along the C-130514 road in the south liminal areas of the city. pic.twitter.com/Ja2MirFiRE
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 15, 2023
And here’s an update from The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko on his charity’s attempt to get financial aid to the woman in the picture at the top of the post:
Done! That was a bit difficult – Ukrainian bank automatically decided that such huge transfers could be suspicious, but there was a way to prove otherwise. A bit more than $5,000 sent to her. We wish her and her loved ones speedy recovery and lots of happiness in life.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 15, 2023
I have not seen anything from the Ukrainian MOD or Ponomarenko or anyone else indicating if her parents have been found and whether they are alive or dead. If I see something about this, I’ll post it in a subsequent update.
The Washington Post has a deep dive into Russia’s crime against humanity attack on yesterday’s civilian targets in Dnipro and other cities and towns in Ukraine.
It's hard to explain the horrors of what we witnessed tonight in Dnipro. Our story with the incredible @NastyaGalouchka and such powerful photos from Wojciech Grzedzinski https://t.co/6DxkLJsJFG
— Siobhán O'Grady (@siobhan_ogrady) January 14, 2023
Updated January 15, 2023 at 10:38 a.m. EST|Published January 14, 2023 at 6:38 p.m. EST
This article has been updated.
DNIPRO, Ukraine — Two hours after a Russian missile slammed into a Ukrainian apartment complex on Saturday, shocking the city that has served as a relatively safe haven for the war’s displaced, rescue workers digging through rubble spotted a sudden movement from above.
On the eighth floor, they could see the arm of a bloodied elderly woman, so buried in debris she could barely move, waving a piece of red fabric. Below her, dozens of apartments had collapsed, swallowing residents into some 30 feet of rubble.
From inside the damaged building, she was somehow alive — and calling for help.
Russia’s blatant attack on civilians here — the worst to strike this city since Russia invaded Ukraine last February — came just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed his most senior military officer, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, as the new overseer of his relentless war in Ukraine.
The strike, which coincided with the Orthodox New Year, served as a grim message that Putin’s close confidant is likely to continue the violent missile strikes on civilian targets that have become a hallmark of Russia’s assault. The bombing, one of a wave of attacks Saturday across Ukraine, may have destroyed as many as 72 apartments, said Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, who shared a video of the destruction.
Residents were trapped as flames engulfed part of the structure, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the president’s office, said on Telegram.
At least 25 people died in the apartment building, according to updated numbers provided Sunday by Zelensky. At least 73 people, including 13 children, were wounded, Zelensky said. Many more are believed to be buried in the ruins. Rescue efforts continued Sunday, with a digging machine hacking at the rubble in an attempt to access the collapsed apartments below.
As the city neared its midnight curfew Saturday, dogs wearing specialized shoes to protect them from injuries were scaling the mound of debris, sniffing for survivors. Off to the side, the dead lay on the ground in white bags, red and white tape wrapped around them.
The living, hundreds of them, appeared out of the darkness, as they do in so many Ukrainian towns on so many nights, to clean up and hand out food and hot drinks.
While Russian missiles struck other Ukrainian cities on Saturday, none caused anything close to the scale of damage in Dnipro. The attack came as an exceptional shock here because it’s been something of a refuge. Many displaced people, from places such as the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol or the front line regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, have relocated here seeking safety and normalcy.
“We don’t have any safe spaces in Ukraine anymore,” said Maksym Chornyi, 32, who volunteered to help rescue people at the scene. “It needs to be clear to Europe as well, because these rockets can land there too.”
He was at home on the other side of Dnipro on Saturday afternoon when he heard the attack — so powerful it sent a shock wave through much of the city.
He rushed to the scene, where he climbed through the wreckage to search for survivors with nothing more than a face mask to protect him from the smoke billowing through the air. After several hours, rescue workers asked him and other volunteers to move back so they could bring heavy machinery into the area to keep digging. He stepped away, his face dark with soot.
What he witnessed inside the wreckage was nightmarish.
At one point, he heard screaming and thought it was coming from below. Then he realized it was the woman trapped on the eighth floor, who told rescuers her name was Lyuba. Later, he looked up and realized a dead man was hanging off the other side of the building — his intestines ripped out of his body.
Just nearby, “there was blood streaked down the wall,” Chornyi said. “I feel horrible.”
Just before 8 p.m., rescue workers finally dug Lyuba out of the remains of her home and slowly lowered her to the ground in a yellow stretcher. She lay silently as they wrapped her in a foil blanket.
One of the workers who carried her down blew her a kiss and leaned over her. “I promised I was going to save you and I did,” he said. “Everything is going to be okay.”
Then they whisked her away in an ambulance.
One of the Ukrainian Red Cross medics who helped carry her to safety said she believed both her legs were broken. Her face was covered in blood.
When asked what message she would want to send the world after this attack, the medic, who identified herself only as Natalya, 36, didn’t hesitate.
“Stop Russia,” she said.
Nadya Yaroshenko’s son Rostyslav, who is 12, was home alone in their third-floor apartment when the missile struck. He called his mom in a panic, asking how he could flee, she recalled.
“There are no stairs,” he told her. With much of the building destroyed, he crawled toward the elevator and waited for help, she said.
Her friends pushed past first responders, screaming that there was a child trapped inside. Then one scaled the building and carried him out through a window, unharmed.
Hours later, the family was still waiting for any sign of their missing cat and dog.
Then a neighbor, Andriy Filkovich, called with good news. “Nadya, the dog is next to me with her savior. Where are you?” he said.
A firefighter handed the shaking dachshund, named Cola, back to Yaroshenko, who wrapped her in her arms. “You were so scared,” she cooed. “Don’t be scared.”
Their cat, Bilyash, whose blue and yellow eyes match the Ukrainian flag, was still missing.
Despite the cold and the late hour, hundreds of Dnipro residents have joined the rescuers, sorting through the rubble of a high-rise building that was destroyed by a russian missile.
There are people under the rubble begging for help. pic.twitter.com/03fGHsUZsy— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 15, 2023
Two friends – doctors and volunteers Olha Usova, mother of a little son & Iryna Solomatenko, mother of two children.
Mykhailo Korenovskyi, a respected boxing coach, father of two children.
Yesterday,all three were killed by a russian Kh-22 missile launched by a kremlin assassin. pic.twitter.com/grpli6QFe8— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 15, 2023
I curse you to the seventh generation. pic.twitter.com/u1BjDN0KHO
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 14, 2023
Kherson:
Kherson. russians targeted the Red Cross office and the rehabilitation center for children with disabilities. A total of 7 people from Kherson were injured as a result of today's artillery shelling.
🎥 Kyrylo Tymoshenko pic.twitter.com/5cLK9LJKkp— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 15, 2023
Every single company still working with russia, every single dollar sent to russia, they all contributed to this hell on earth. pic.twitter.com/YeB0gmpp3j
— Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) January 14, 2023
Imagine being a mother and father in Ukraine and knowing that the United States & NATO has the weapons to end this genocide. Every day those weapons are not sent, genocide continues. How many innocent must the Russians massacre? Is there a number? A Butcher’s Bill to pay? https://t.co/sHbjxDkF8d
— stuart stevens (@stuartpstevens) January 15, 2023
There’s a general sense that the US spends a great deal on military. What is less understood is just how much. We spend more than the next 9 countries combined. We are the only Super Power. Give Ukraine everything it needs to end this war of genocide. https://t.co/g38J3063qY pic.twitter.com/bfes9nC09T
— stuart stevens (@stuartpstevens) January 15, 2023
On January 14, a 🇷🇺 Х-22 missile hit a residential building in the city of Dnipro.
🇺🇦 does not have the means to shoot down such missiles.
To shoot down such missiles, we need such systems as Patriot PAC-3 and SAMP-T.
All those guilty of terror will be punished!— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) January 15, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Patriot PAC-3 or SAMP-T could intercept X22 missiles. But we don't have these systems yet.
— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 14, 2023
Ukrainian dogs are so… Ukrainian, you know🙂Brave and always ready to help.
— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 15, 2023
And the profile of the Antares https://t.co/yLtCOppFV8
— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 15, 2023
His badge says “searching for the dead”
— Mira of Kyiv (@reshetz) January 15, 2023
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns 😔❤️🩹
Open thread!
CaseyL
Between dragging its feet on responding to Russia’s genocidal attacks, and dragging its feet on holding the top people accountable for the January 6 insurrection, I am angrily wondering just what is going on with the Biden Administration.
PJ
@CaseyL: From Biden’s statements, I get the feeling some of the hold up may be due to trying to get certain NATO partners on board (i.e., Germany). But that may just be obfuscation. If these kinds of atrocities don’t get the US and NATO to provide what Ukraine needs to win, what will?
sab
After last night I am skipping tonight.
Betty
Just heartless, murderous monsters. The world needs to move faster to get Ukraine help.
Bill Arnold
According to various sources, the KH-22 has a 950 (wiki says 1000) kg RDX warhead, and does terminal guidance with radar in a final dive, and in low-flying mode the dive is from 12000 meters. I.e. the apartment building probably was targeted, with a very large warhead. No other obvious scenario.
Ksmiami
@Betty: and Russia and its enablers need to be cut off at the knees. Enough and Biden’s administration needs to step on the gas yesterday.
tobie
Russia’s war on the civilian population of Ukraine is terrorism. The US, NATO and EU need to stop dawdling with aid to Ukraine.
Ksmiami
@tobie: the only way to defeat Russia is with massive return firepower. Now.
Aussie Sheila
@PJ:
But why does the US need NATO permission to send anything it wants? NATO permission or anybody else’s either has never stopped the US government doing what it wants. Iraq war anybody?
Honestly, every time there is a possibility they will do the right thing, they find a way to not do it.
Oh and eff Germany. I remain convinced its government bureaucracy is riddled with Russian spies together with most of its political parties.
Bill Arnold
Some names and faces. (Been linked previously. Christo Grozen is now Wanted by Russia.)
The Remote Control Killers Behind Russia’s Cruise Missile Strikes on Ukraine (October 24, 2022, Christo Grozev)
Chetan Murthy
@Aussie Sheila: We don’t have to like it, but Biden’s strategy has clearly been to work thru a consensus of our NATO allies. When our allies just aren’t ready, we don’t move forward, but instead try to push them to become ready. In this case it doesn’t work b/c Germany controls Leopards owned by many of our allies …. so effectively they punch above their weight in the alliance. It stinks on ice. At times like these, it sure woulda been nice if we’d been planning to deliver Bradleys for six months or more, doesn’t it?
Sigh.
ETA: and you’re right, that when the US decided to unilaterally attack some country, we didn’t allow our allies to stop us. I’d suggest that both Obama and Biden are consciously trying to walk that back — to convince our allies that we’re back on the team, etc.
Chetan Murthy
These two articles, taken together, make me feel a little stabby. TL;DR our Western allies don’t have a lot of tanks to spare, outside of the ones they’re actively using, and support vehicles (like armored recovery vehicles) far fewer. And it doesn’t seem like getting tanks out of reserve is going to be as quick as people thought. I really do hope that this is all just pessimism before the flood of armor. Really do hope.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/14/tanks-will-help-kyiv-break-deadlock-but-its-ukraine-allies-now-face-a-fork-in-the-road?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1673697791
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/15/german-battle-tanks-for-ukraine-wont-be-ready-until-2024
Aussie Sheila
@Chetan Murthy:
I can’t believe there isn’t some bauble the US could offer Germany to change its mind. Or else the much vaunted CIA whose expertise is supposed to be so much admired, might like to do a little exposure on Germany’s rotten, Putin infested political culture.
Either way, it is reasonable to expect the US Security apparatus that costs so much and appears so impotent at keeping the US safe from fascists at home might like to do a little regime shaking abroad.
Omnes Omnibus
@Aussie Sheila: The US, under Biden, is working within alliances, rather than acting unilaterally. Sometimes doing things the right way can be frustrating.* We voted for someone who would try to do the right things in the right way. This is what it looks like.
*FWIW I would argue that the same thing is happening with the DOJ.
CaseyL
@Omnes Omnibus:
If the “right way” means Russia wins, and the fascists in the US win, then it wasn’t the “right way.”
Ukraine can’t keep being our sacrificial lamb, killing off the Russian military so we don’t have to. They don’t deserve to have their country leveled and their population decimated in order to do our dirty work.
And in the US, the facists have Congress and SCOTUS, so I don’t see how we’re winning there, either.
JPL
@CaseyL: It’s Europe and Nato that need to step up also. This is clearly genocide and Putin needs to pay a price. Unfortunately, he won’t.
Adam L Silverman
@Ksmiami: Cool it!
Gin & Tonic
@CaseyL: Ukraine has been fighting russia since before there was a United States. They are continuing to fight for their homeland, not to do anyones dirty work.
Adam L Silverman
@Aussie Sheila: Anything made by another country’s industries for military sales can only be resold or donated with permission of the exporting country. This is why everyone is irritated with Switzerland right now. Also, Biden is trying to keep NATO all United and moving in the same direction on supporting Ukraine.
livewyre
Both Ukraine and law can and must win. The idea of intervention on our own initiative, without Ukraine and our allies calling for us to do so under the law (say, Article V), is a fruitless lure that plays to our weaknesses. This time we really might know better.
Jay
A normal kitchen, bright cabinets, comfy chairs, a bowl of fruit on the kitchen table,………..
Dan B
These stories of the survivors of these bombings are heart wrenching. Is the German government hearing these? Are the Swiss?
Omnes Omnibus
On a completely different note, I binged Season 2 of Vikings: Valhalla this weekend. Part of it took place in Rus. They used Ukrainian spellings in the scene setting captions (Dnipro, etc.).
Aussie Sheila
@Adam L Silverman: At this rate there won’t be anything left of Ukraine to save.
@CaseyL:
Exactly. The US security and LEO systems cost more than any other in the world, and they still can’t protect their own people at home, or others abroad from fascism. But the system is ‘working’ I guess.
Must ensure that the institutions appear to work, not that they actually do work, to keep people safe and secure.
It is truly pathetic. God help Australia if the US decides to unilaterally determine Is approach to China. We are truly effed.
Omnes Omnibus
Deleted. I probably should just stay out of these threads for a while.
Jay
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: I didn’t see anything substantive wrong with your comment, Omnes. Indeed, it’s a good thing that our government is working with our allies, even when we don’t like the way it slows things down. B/c someday, we might be glad — the next time some military crackpot Preznit wants to throw some little country against the wall, that our foreign policy and defense establishments have the habit of working in consensus with our allies, and not
actingmoving forward when our allies all yell at us to stop.Aussie Sheila
@Omnes Omnibus: No. please don’t impute to me propositions I haven’t stated.
Let me tell you something you probably don’t know about my country and it’s politics. After all, why should you know, we are just a big US aircraft carrier bordering the Pacific and Indian Oceans and the South China Sea.
For my whole lifetime, conservative governments here have asked ‘how high’ every time a US administration has decided to ‘request’ allies help in its many adventures abroad. From Korea, to Vietnam, Chile in 1973, Iraq wars 1&2, and heaven knows what other jolly adventures cooked up by a batshit insane US security apparatus.
This issue with China is that it has to be managed, free from the security hysteria exhibited every time another nation appears to be besting US attempts to remain a regional (Pacific) hegemon.
I have no illusions about the bellicosity of Xi’s regime. I have no illusions either about the US determination to do whatever it wants when it suits. The US should listen and learn from, the region’s nations about how best to manage China. I am confident it won’t.
I am also confident that if Australia is ever attacked by China, or anyone else for that matter, that the US will do exactly what domestic opinion and its own interests dictate.
I am intensely unsentimental about the US as a much vaunted ally. I have seen too much in my lifetime to be anything else. I do not like being dependent on the US, because it is not dependable, at all.
Like every other nation, it will do what it wills, and nothing more.
livewyre
@Aussie Sheila: Wait. Are you calling for the United States to be unaccountable to other nations, on the basis that otherwise it might get their hopes up?
Betsy
Can we just figure out where Putin is staying and nuke that place. I know we can’t. But why not. This shit has to end. If we can blow up a whole Iraqi wedding because of one terrorist, why can we not nuke Putin’s sorry ass into outer space and also say, “His friends should have known better than to pal around with murderous assholes when the United States is a thing”
Freemark
Russian country, go fuck yourself!
lowtechcyclist
So I reiterate from last night’s thread: the United States must require that businesses incorporated or principally located in the United States or principally owned by Americans cease doing business with Russia.
PJ
@Aussie Sheila:
If the US is inherently undependable, why do you seem to be upset that it isn’t doing more to aid Ukraine? And, if the US is so undependable, why is it the US that is the linchpin in getting so much of the aid to Ukraine? I mean, you don’t seem to be upset with, say, Israel, or India, or China (or Australia, for that matter) for not sending weapons to Ukraine. If the US is no different than those countries as far as foreign policy goes, why so much grief about it?
Chetan Murthy
@Aussie Sheila:
But can you not see, that Biden is actually trying to change that? To work via consensus ? To be *dependable* ? Do you remember when the US got involved in Libya, almost *solely* because our NATO allies asked us to do so? I’d think you would want and encourage this sort of behaviour.
I’d think that you’d be reserving your anger for Germany, not the US, in this instance.
Jay
Betsy
@Jay: I know it. Exactly. It is like a window into their very lives. I feel ashamed of my messy kitchen. I wish I could help. This picture and the others make the muscles in my face twitch with horror and outrage.
Aussie Sheila
@livewyre: No. I am asking the US to shut up and listen to other people who know more about their region and its safety than the US does.
I know that sounds hopelessly utopian, but just for once both the US government and it’s often well meaning but hopelessly ignorant citizens (about the rest of the world), might like to take a back seat for a while and just help (like Ukraine for instance), and stop lecturing the rest of the world about ‘freedumb’.
It is not just irritating after a lifetime of listening to it, it is downright dangerous. It has cost thousands of Australian lives, just to ‘ensure’ so we were told, that the US would come to our aid if needed.
Idiotic, dangerous fantasies like that could likely mean the end of peace in our region. And it is our region. Not yours.
Freemark
At this point we need to go all in on anything that isn’t US/NATO directly attacking. Create a military base 3 miles from the Ukrainian border that is pretty much solely there to support Ukraine. Can train 100,000 or more Ukrainians in every one of our systems and that can repair/maintain every system we give them.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
lowtechcyclist
The thing that hits me about that picture at the top of the thread of the woman in the rubble is: that rubble is four or five stories off the ground. In that photo, it looks like she’s safe, just in shock as she waits for help. But it’s just a part of a larger photo that shows the side of the building, and the rubble underneath where she’s sitting could collapse at any moment, and so could the rubble above her, either one of which could have killed her.
I’d have been scared shitless if I’d have been where she was.
Aussie Sheila
@Chetan Murthy: I have plenty of anger about Germany. See my comment above.
I have no illusions about China or any other great power, including and especially the US because I live in its ‘sphere of influence’.
I wonder after all this, if the US and its much vaunted ‘liberal democratic’ polity might like to take a minute out of its very busy ’mission democratice’ abroad, and pay attention a little more to international law, including international organisations like International criminal justice system aka the Hague.
I mean Putin and his cronies should be brought before it, but don’t you think it is a little embarrassing that the US doesn’t recognise its jurisdiction over its own nationals?
Jay
@Freemark:
it takes 2 months to train a Bradley crewman, then at least another month of active use, to get the kinks out and turn “reactions”, like the gun feed jamming, into muscle memory where you grab the belt with one hand, and the great big screwdriver with the other, and lever the jammed round back into line, putting the gun back into service in seconds.
It takes 3 months training to become a Bradley Service Technician, able to do the basic service, minor repairs and diagnose problems that require more extensive work.
Then there is the whole logistics trail of ammo and spare parts.
Aussie Sheila
@PJ: Oh and Australia is sending military aid to Ukraine. But I wouldn’t expect you to know that.
Jay
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: I’m aware. Germany has also blocked many NATO allies from delivering MBTs. I’m not asking Germany to clean out their stores; I’m angry that Germany is blocking other countries from doing their part.
Aziz, light!
Giving Ukraine tanks and training them to operate them is one thing. Arming, fueling, and most importantly, maintaining those tanks in the field is a much larger enterprise. I try not to second guess the US and other NATO militaries (Germany excepted) when they deal with the magnitude of this task, or when it takes longer than we would like. My primary takeaway from the war thus far is the vast importance of logistics.
That said I hope we intend to give them fighter planes. (The same logistic challenges apply.)
Freemark
@Aussie Sheila: Unfortuantely, just saying give us all your money and go away rarely works. Especially when you literally count on the giver to do all the work too. More American died protecting Australia in WWII than Australians did. Sure the U.S. had there own reasons for not wanting Australia to become Japanese, but without U.S. servicemen dying in New Guinea, Bouganville Island, and too many other places to mention, Australia would have absolutely been a Japanese territory with Australians treated just like the people in the Philippines and other conquered territories.
Yes the U.S., especially under Republicans, often acts like a dick about it. But bitching about how the people doing the work, that you get the benefit of with very little of the costs, takes a shit ton of ego. Sure you aren’t actually French?
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy:
Horse’s mouth:
Scholz runs a 3-way coalition government (from December):
Worth a click.
Cheers,
Scott.
NotoriousJRT
@Aziz, light!: I also am reluctant to criticize from the darkness of what I do not know. But always the question remains in my head: Why haven’t / didn’t we start the training sooner?
Aussie Sheila
@Freemark:
No I’m not French, but I wish I was. That way I and the rest of my country ( if they were French as well) would be a lot safer.
The US just can’t help itself. It never listens to others, it believes in its own moral mission no matter how sordid it is in reality, and it’s citizens, even those on the centre left just can’t resist a righteous ‘call to arms’. In the case of Ukraine, the mission is righteous to the extent that the US and its allies make the war as short as possible for Ukraine.
Doing one right thing doesn’t mean that everybody else’s memories just dissolve in gratitude.
I believe that the next Republican administration in the US will mean a ‘hot war’ with China. And that will be fought in my region.
And please don’t lecture me about US assistance to us during WW2. I believe we have paid that debt in a thousand ways, big and small. Including having one of our own governments overthrown 1975 with ample assistance from yours at the time.
Thanking you in advance.
Oh and about ‘give me all your money’?
The amount of money Australia has spent, and will spend on defence equipment and the like, in order to secure US allyship is eye watering.
Much more than we should imo.
Freemark
@Jay: I know. That is the point. What I suggested would help both training and logistics tremendously. We certainly have the capability of doing it. What is lacking is the political will. Unfortunately I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Either here or in the richer Western European countries.
Chetan Murthy
@Aussie Sheila: I don’t understand, so I’ll spell it out and you can correct me:
Do I read you right? What am I missing?
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/repaired-german-leopard-tanks-ukraine-ready-2024-earliest-armsmaker-says-2023-01-15/
Poland received a handful of K2’s and K9’s from Korea December 9th, which has freed up a Company of Leopard II’s, for delivery to Ukraine.
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/01/ukraine-gets-its-tanks-poland-sending-leopard-2-and-other-nations-may-follow/
For everybody involved, it’s a balancing act. Canada sent all their M-777 howitzer’s to Ukraine, only after a program and logistic’s had been worked out to allow Canadian Artillarymen to cross train with the US at Fort Lewis in the short term, and have their replacement guns “jump the queue”.
There are tons of Leopards in storage, but they all need repairs, upgrades and service before being sent to Ukraine. There arn’t that many Leopards in active service, and all of those that are, are “front line” tanks. When Canada needed Leopards for Afghanistan, we worked out a deal where we “leased” Dutch Leopards already in Afghanistan, (their Tanker’s were headed home, and the tanks were going to be shipped home), until the Leopard II’s were were buying, were ready for service, two years later.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Re: Poland’s Leopards, I’ve read that the Poles are being constructively ambiguous, not saying outright that they have already made the decision to ship those MBTs, b/c they have not actually received permission from Germany to do it. And if that permission is not granted, then the tanks will not be sent.
The Poles are trying as hard as they can to get this done; it’s not their fault that they’re being blocked thus far.
Aussie Sheila
@Chetan Murthy: I want the US to do all it can to shorten the war against Ukraine in Ukraines favour.
That might mean some arm twisting in respect to the corrupt German political culture of Putin shilling.
With respect to my own country and others in the region, Inwould like the US to shut up and listen. We are not at war with China. Yet.
I simply believe that Ukraine is partly ( note, partly) paying the price of past US adventurism abroad. I don’t give a stuff about Israel’s attitude, except to note I wouldn’t expect anymore from that country and its corrupt, authoritarian government.
I am surprised that US citizens aren’t more indignant though. After all, hasn’t the US spent billions propping it up, and what has it got to show for it?
PJ
@Aussie Sheila:
My point is I haven’t seen you complaining about Australia not sending enough.
Jay
@NotoriousJRT:
as Slava, ( a friend of mine who is a tanker in Ukraine) has pointed out, everybody who could barely drive or fight a tank, (or repair it), in Ukraine, was rather busy in 2022.
You don’t just pull a guy off the street, hand him a tool box, sit them in a class, and get a tank repairman. The same goes for crew. You need to have the experienced manpower reserves to be able to pull people “off the line” for 3 months or more, and back fill those positions.
There is no “one majick trick”,…….
Chetan Murthy
@Aussie Sheila: OK, so you want the US to listen to Australia, but to impose its views on Germany, just so we’re clear.
C’mon, can’t you see that this is completely contradictory? From a Germany POV (and they like to see themselves as the leaders of Europe), the US would be running roughshod over their domestic prerogatives.
And please note I don’t like it one bit more than you do.
P.S. re: Israel, lots of Americans have significant problems with Israel and the way the’re a terrible ally. Living in a tough neighborhood doesn’t give them the right to cozy up to our main geopolitical adversary (Russia). But you’ll note that nearly half the US thinks that’s just fine: both Israel going bonkers right-winger and increasingly Fascist, and Russia. It is what it is.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
as of Friday, Polish Leopards are free to hunt in Ukraine. Germany said yes, based on the first K9 and K2 Companies going operational.
YY_Sima Qian
@Aussie Sheila: I had no idea that the ASIS & the ASIO were involved in the CIA’s coup against Allende in 1973!
WTF?!!
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-leopard-tank-ukraine-war-germany-vice-chancellor-robert-habeck/
I’ve seen this. And if it results in official Germany approval, that’ll be great. But from that article, it doesn’t appear that Germany has officially approved. Let’s hope it happens soon.
Aussie Sheila
@PJ: Fortunately our government doesn’t broadcast what it is doing to the whole world. I know a bit of what we are doing, but not the whole of it. I am quite content about that.
I will note that support for Ukraine and its people is a matter of political unanimity here. Unlike in the US. Which better hurry up and do a bit of the much vaunted democratic ‘arm twisting’ otherwise the next republican administration will pull the plug well and truly.
Jay
Ksmiami
@CaseyL: thank you.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Good god
Aussie Sheila
@YY_Sima Qian: Yep. Absolutely disgraceful. And that is my problem with US influence in Australia and over our foreign policy. Part one million. Like I have written, the US has been a baleful influence in my country and in the region. If you want to be sick, look up the Indonesian massacre of 1965. Doubtless Australia assisted in that genocide as well.
Gin & Tonic
@Omnes Omnibus: One of the female leads in that, Katheryn Winnick, is a Ukrainian-Canadian, fluent in Ukrainian.
different-church-lady
Well, this is sure to convince her she’d rather be Russian than Ukrainian.
[Do I really need to put a sarcasm tag on this?]
YY_Sima Qian
@Aussie Sheila:
In this case, the US has to balance the desires of the equities of Ukraine as the country under assault, the Baltic States + CEE countries (ex-Hungary) who are close neighbors & also directly affected, & Western European countries who are in region, indirectly affected, but are the US’ most powerful allies (especially when it comes to economic punishment of Russia). Of all the players, the US is the farthest removed & least impacted by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine (Putin’s greyzone activities is another matter).
I do agree on the merits of the specific items being currently discussed – main battle tanks and fighter aircraft. Not providing Ukraine w/ the weapons to defeat the Russian invasion ASAP is unsupportable – that would mean the US/NATO really is bleeding the Russians to the last Ukrainian, whether they are consciously aware of it or not.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
from what I understand, Germany has not approved Poland’s request because Poland has not yet formally made the request.
Bureaucracy, gotta love it.
Freemark
@Aussie Sheila: You may be right about that ‘hot’ war. But I hope not. But the blame isn’t just on the US. Just like in Europe the Pacific countries counted on the US to cover their asses to the point they gave the US power maybe they shouldn’t have. Too many countries, Australia certainly included, decided that they would rather give that power to the US than have to spend the money and deal with it themselves. Then they went to kvetch when the US does things in ways they don’t like.
I actually agree the US should listen to their allies more and actually seems to be doing that in the Pacific with Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Thailand, and the Philippines. What do you think should be done differently?
Chetan Murthy
@Aussie Sheila: Perhaps you are aware that our own right-wing thugs sometimes wear t-shirts saying “Pinochet did nothing wrong” and other slogans extolling his regime? Also “Wanna take a ride in a helicopter?” etc.
Ksmiami
@Adam L Silverman: why shouldn’t we send everything we can to Ukraine? Why cower while a preventable genocide is happening?
Aussie Sheila
@Freemark: There is nothing to be done differently I am afraid. I am not worried, well not too much, while the Biden admin is there. But afterwards? God help us all.
YY_Sima Qian
@Aussie Sheila: Vincent Bevins has written a whole book on the Jakarta Method, which he discussed in this NYT OpEd (The ‘Liberal World Order’ Was Built With Blood). It is on my reading list.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
And that’s kinda the “rub”. “As Possible” doesn’t mean sticking them on a parade ground in Ukraine to gather dust, it means supplying them when Ukraine and backers have the training to operate, maintain and the logistical train to support them through the course of the war.
NotoriousJRT
@Jay: Thank you. This is helpful. Same for Patriot batteries personnel?
Aussie Sheila
@Chetan Murthy: Yes I am aware of the US right wing’s penchant for fascism. Unfortunately, given the US history with homegrown fascism I am not confident about the ability of the US to stanch the anti democratic bleeding at home. Let’s hope they can do that for Ukraine though. Abroad is always easier for US oligarchs than ‘at home’. Due process and all that.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Ukrainians can be training on Leopard 2s in Poland right now.
Aussie Sheila
@YY_Sima Qian: I haven’t read that book, but we were all aware at the time of what was happening in Indonesia. I remember my parents being horrified and whispering about it at home. Likewise with Vietnam.
I don’t think people in the US, even well intentioned ones, are quite aware of how aware the rest of the world is, about its foreign policy record. And that is the problem, in a nutshell.
Citizen Alan
@JPL:
Saying that this is a genocide and that’s a reason for us to “do something” ignores the fact that the republicans would never have allowed the US to go to war against Nazi Germany in Europe had Hitler not made the blunder of declaring war on us first. The majority of Americans do not care about genocide in foreign lands if finding it causes anything more than the tiniest inconvenience or even the threat of inconvenience. And that’s before we confront the fact that 1 of our 2 political parties and most of our media outlets have been coopted by Putin and his home grown fascist ologarch enablers.
way2blue
Adam. Thank you for posting these snippets from yesterday’s depraved attack. Crushing. But so essential to not look away.
Jay
@NotoriousJRT:
probably more of a mess and longer time frame. Patriots are “notorious” for Blue on Blue incidents, and we are talking about an air environment filled with Soviet, Russian, Ukrainian, ad hoc and non-existent IFF systems. The “standard” is that Patriot “zones” are set up as “no fly zones” just in case, and that everybody on “our side” putting something in the air, needs to know. The Patriots also need to be moved around quite often to “stay safe”, and this changes the “zone”, so a whole system needs to be set up of communication, with safeties and back ups, all through out the food chain.
NotoriousJRT
@Jay: But, would there have been Ukrainian candidates to start training earlier?
way2blue
@Jay:
Good to know. Thanks!
Aussie Sheila
@Citizen Alan: Exactly. Pearl Harbour helped to save our bacon. Not US citizens, not FDR and not the much vaunted US love of democracy. We are the biggest and best aircraft carrier in the world. That is all.
Gin & Tonic
@Citizen Alan: Calling a thing by its proper name is important for its own sake.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
personal story. Slava, (not his name), was a co-worker who went back to Ukraine in February, shortly after the Russian reinvasion. He had been a conscript when younger, trained on T-62 tanks. So, they stuck him in a T-64 as a Sargeant Tank Commander, and gave him a week of hands on with a motley crew before they went into combat. By “motley”, I mean that for example, his driver was an 18 year old with some experience driving bulldozers, and his gunner was a BMP 1 gunner back in 2013/14, then a plumber until the reinvasion. the T-64BM is neither a T-62A or a T-64. He did okay, (survived) in part because before he headed out, I had set him up with declassified T-64, T-64BM and T-64BV manuals, from operations to service, in PDF form, in English, translated to Ukrainian from English and the origional Russian, plus the digital files and CD-ROMs. When his T-64BM wore out, they gave him a T72MP and command of a squad and I sent him the manuals. Then he got bumped to Company Commander and a T-80UD. More manuals. Recently, his group spotted “something weird” and he sent me a photo, which I identified with some help of some friends as a PTKM-1R antitank mine, and once again, sent him all the manuals, (not much) and info I and my friends could scrape up.
Until Slava and his company can be pulled from the line and sent west for training, despite their skills, they are not ready for Leopards, and Slava is lucky if they get 2 weeks every 3 months so far.
Fall in queue
@Aussie Sheila:
You don’t need wild conspiracy theories to understand what Germany is thinking here. I am no IR expert, but as a Greek, I do have some experience with German decision making in a crisis; and what I’m seeing does remind me a lot of the Eurozone crisis of ten years ago.
In both cases, the issue is not so much that Germany is ultimately unwilling to put in the resources to help. Germany did contribute the lion’s share or Eurozone bailouts, and it did not stand in the way of the ECB’s use of unorthodox monetary policy to prop up the Eurozone. But Germany was always reactive; it was only willing to act when the costs of not acting became clearly unsustainable, and only once it judged the political conditions appropriate.
As I see it, what Germany was not willing to do was “own” the response to the crisis. It was willing to suffer costs to help, but never willing to make an open-ended commitment to backstop the Eurozone. (Ironically, this attitude likely made the crisis, and the cost to Germany, worse than it might have been.)
I think the same dynamic is at work here. Germany’s fear is ending up “owning” a war that could well end up being unwinnable. This is not a completely crazy fear: the US, and even the UK, could conceivably walk away at any point, but the war is right on Germany’s doorstep. So, Germany will act, but only when it is certain that its commitments are matched or exceeded by its allies.
For what it’s worth, I think a similar fear of owning a quagmire is likely a big factor in Biden’s decision-making, though it gets discussed much less than the fear of nuclear escalation.
(It’s important that the fear I’m talking is a fear of owning a quagmire, with all the political and economic costs it entails. Unfortunately, the existence of a quagmire, in which the Russian army exhausts itself (but lots and lots of Ukrainians die as well) may be strategically acceptable to NATO leaders.)
Reboot
Well, it’s not much, but I contacted President Biden–here’s what I wrote:
In April 2022, I wrote to my members of congress to urge aid to Ukraine, including the provision of secure humanitarian corridors. Clearly, given Russia’s ongoing tactics of terrorism and war crimes, the idea that humanitarian corridors would have been a possibility is laughable.
Today I’m asking you to provide the help that Ukraine needs to end this war and stop Russia’s ongoing campaign of genocide. Ukraine needs the capability to shoot down missiles like the ones that destroyed a Dnipro apartment building yesterday, killing and wounding, and leaving an untold number missing under rubble.
Russia is our enemy too, and we should be an even stronger partner in this fight for global democracy, doing all we can to make sure Ukraine wins.
…
Guess I’ll hit up more of the usual suspects tomorrow.
Fall in queue
@Chetan Murthy:
Part of my point in my recent comments in these threads is that Germans do not, in fact, like to see themselves in this way (or at least are very ambivalent about it).
Jay
@NotoriousJRT:
probably not. Ukraine has experienced manpower holding the line, carrying out offensives, while they try to build up a reserve for a new large offensive. Given the use of missiles and drones as terror weapons by Russia, everybody with some AA experience is either busy, or back filling Air Defence crews, except for those recently freed up and sent west for training, which probably strains the current crews.
People think it’s easy, kinda a Dunning-Kruger thing. I fix, test and certify a broad array of tools for a living, from Confined Space Gas monitors, through lifts, hoists, jetters, fall protection, pipe threaders, technical tools, lathes, etc. About 1/3rd of the tools I work on are broken, because the user didn’t read the manual, forced the tool to do something it couldn’t, or kept running the tool after bolts were falling off. About 1/3rd are broken, because the owner/user thought they could fix them themselves. the other 1/3rd are just wear and tear, or annual recertification, or general service.
Aussie Sheila
@Fall in queue: Yes, that makes a lot sense. I remember Germany’s approach to Greece during the financial crisis. Personally, I am less enamoured with the cultural explanation for its actions against Greece than I am about Germany’s desire to protect German bond holders.
It was/is a good lesson on the limits of multi lateral institutions when $s or in that case, Deutschmarks, get in the way of rational policy responses to a crisis in somebody else’s backyard.
I remain very sorry for Greece and very angry with Germany for its financial beggaring of that country for no other reason than its own self interest.
Gin & Tonic
@Fall in queue: The presence of russian spies in German government is very far from a “wild conspiracy theory.”
NotoriousJRT
@Reboot: I also wrote POTUS and will weigh in with senators and rep after the holiday.
Aussie Sheila
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you. It is not a conspiracy theory. Gerhard Schroeder anyone? Bueller?
Its polity is riddled with Putinistas. For many reasons. Mostly those associated with German economic interests in both Russia and Eastern Europe. Germany is no slouch when it comes to off shoring and out sourcing to save its capitalists and investors money.
It rivals the US in that regard, despite having better health care than the US. It manages to fly under the radar better than the US though, especially in the US where most people wouldn’t have a clue about Germanys record in modern Europe.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Very informative account, thanks for sharing!
I would hope Ukraine has not committed all of its reserves to the front, & instead is building up a large reserve of its own to launch a Spring/Summer offensive. It is the reserves that should be getting trained on NATO heavy weapons now.
Furthermore, Germany is sending Marder infantry fighting vehicles, & France is sending the AMX-10RC, so clearly the issues are not insurmountable.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Ukraine has a quandary. They need Reserves to provide relief to the defenders, reinforce local offensives to keep the pressure on the Russians, and send people for uptraining. Their reserves are volenteers and former conscripts, so a mix of people with no training, and some outdated training, so the reserves need to be trained up before being sent on one of the three key tasks. As the reserves come “online”, they need to be “parcelled” out to two of the three tasks, to relieve experienced troops who can then form the core of “new” units, (reinforced) by the new trained reserves, for a future “big” offensive, or if Russia beats them to the punch, a new defence. Only recently has both the NATO training regime and Ukraine’s supply of reserves reached the point where about 100,000 can be trained abroad and in Ukraine, every 3 months.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fall in queue: Interesting perspective, especially WRT to the European bail out.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Thanks for the elavoration on the use of Ukrainian reserves. Ukraine has been asking for main battle tanks from Western European countries, so presumably they have a plan to incorporate them. Although sometimes Ukrainian requests are more for rhetorical effects, such as asking F-15s very early on during the war.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: A different POV on the Greek bailout I’ve heard espoused by CEE folks is that back then, Germany was *adamant* that Greece (and anybody else) must take their medicine hard and *now*, no softening it with some social safety net money, no nuthin’. Take it hard and get it over with. Buuuuuut now that Germany’s entire foreign policy regarding Russia has been shown to be a gynormous sham and own-goal, financing Russia’s attack on Europe, Germany wants *time*, y’know, tiiiiime to, y’know, get over it, get their mind right, etc, etc.
The CEE folks I read were not amused.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
ask for the moon,………. can’t hurt,……..
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Huh, Handelsblatt claims they have info that Germany’s gonna donate Leoparts (in concert with PL, ES, FI). That’d be great news!
https://app.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/ukraine-krieg-deutschland-bereitet-sich-auf-leopard-lieferung-fuer-die-ukraine-vor/28924168.html
Fall in queue
@Gin & Tonic:
To be clear, I don’t doubt the presence of Russian spies in the German government; I just doubt that this is what explains German foreign policy decisions.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I do recall that perspective at the time, it received quite a bit of coverage in both American & Chinese media. OTOH, I am sure the German perspective was that they were being asked to bail out countries who had been irresponsible in their economic stewardship, it would not have been politically viable domestically w/in Germany if tough medicine was not involved. If the Merkel government could not overcome domestic opposition to bailing out bankrupt Southern European economies, the backlash could have spelled the end of the Eurozone & make things much worse for all of its constituent economies. & then the CEE & S. European countries would counter that the whole Eurozone monetary policy was heavily weighed to protect the interests of its dominant economy – Germany. The Eurozone is a monetary union w/o fiscal unity, the inherent contradictions & tensions will need to be resolved somehow in the future.
One general point is that, while it is understandable/natural to be sympathetic to the underdogs, they do not have monopoly over wisdom any more than the Great Powers or regional hegemons. There are historical bad blood, dissatisfaction over imbalance of power, resentment from overweening behavior of the big power on the bloc, that could color the perspectives & commentaries of the smaller countries in the shadow of the said big powers. One sees echoes of such dynamic from LatAm to the US, E/SE Asia to China, E. Europe to Russia (before Putin), & S. Asia to India. That needs to be kept in mind when reading commentaries from these parts. They are essential to understand, because the big powers often ignore them, but should not be taken at face value, either.
No voice should be taken at face value, all should be evaluated critically, everyone has biases & priors.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: And yet, it is crystal-clear that the trademark Germany foreign policy regarding Russia, that Germany imposed on the rest of the EU, “Wandel durch Handel”, has failed, and utterly. *Utterly*. And Germany has resisted paying the bill for that, and mightily.
ETA: I mean, for God’s sake, the least they could have done is hang Schroeder upside-down at the Brandenburg Gate and let Ukrainians refugees pelt him with rotten vegetables for a few months. The very *least*.
Aussie Sheila
@Chetan Murthy: Yes. This. Germany’s behaviour towards the ‘lesser volk still speaks…..volumes.
Fall in queue
@Chetan Murthy:
I don’t think this is a conflicting perspective. My point is precisely that the one thing Germany would not do—although standard analyses of financial crises suggest that this is the one thing that can calm them — is make unconditional commitments to backstop Eurozone finances (eg by allowing the issuance of Eurobonds).
At the same time, Germany was willing to underwrite bailouts (that is, loans on terms much more favourable than the market would provide) to Greece and other struggling countries. As you say, these were always limited to meeting immediate financing needs, not expanded welfare payments, and certainly not any kind of macroeconomic stimulus. In this way, the bailouts did not prevent deep depression in Greece and elsewhere, and so at least arguably ended up costing Germany more than a “whatever it takes” sort of commitment earlier on in the crisis would have.
I know that various econ writers (like Krugman and Wren-Lewis, both of whom I deeply respect) interpret this as a failure to understand Keynesian macroeconomics. But I don’t think it is at all plausible that any of this was down to ignorance or misunderstanding. It was rather a political choice — the choice not to be “the leader of Europe” or the country that stands up for the whole block in a crisis.
I think we are basically seeing the same thing now, in a different crisis, and with a different cast of characters.
And you don’t need to attribute corrupt motives or the influence of Russian spies to explain it. Germany simply sees itself as a mid-size power, who aspires to be a good global citizen but has no pretensions to being the “defender of the free world” or anything of the sort. (Nor is this entirely crazy: remember that Germany’s economy is only a fifth of the American one, and something similar as a percentage of the entire EU economy. Also, the last couple of times Germany did try to be the leader of Europe things didn’t turn out so well.)
Fall in queue
@Chetan Murthy: The policy has clearly failed, but in what sense did Germany impose it in the first place? The Washington Consensus and the End of History were just conventional wisdom back then — not to mention all the shitloads of money that was ready to be made through trade (or plunder) in the former Easten block.
As for Schroeder, I believe he has now been sanctioned as a Russian lobbyist. Richly deserved.
Fall in queue
@YY_Sima Qian
Right. Stripped of the moralistic framing, the attitude was that the economic ruination of other Eurozone countries may be sad, but Not Our Problem (at least not until things get so bad that the Euro itself is in danger — and even then we’ll only help if everyone else chips in too). Hardly the attitude of an aspiring leader.
To be clear, in none of these comments am I trying to justify Germany’s choices; I think Germany should have done a lot more in the Euro crisis, and it should be doing a lot more now. I am just pointing out that you do not need to posit spies or outright corruption to explain these choices. They reflect a coherent world-view.
YY_Sima Qian
@Fall in queue: I think there were/are more fundamental dynamics at play. As I said, the Eurozone is a monetary union w/o fiscal unity. There are also some disparity in level of development, economic mix & degree of government intervention into the economy among the members of Eurozone. A currency policy that benefits Germany or the Netherlands may not benefit the long term economic development of E. or S. Europe. Fiscally cautious countries may resent having to bail out those perceived to be fiscally profligate. I think the Eurozone has now implemented fiscal guidelines & coordination mechanisms to help reduce that tension, but whether these mechanisms survive when more members are under economic duress remains to be seen
I know the Eurozone, as w/ the EU, were geopolitical projects aimed at achieving European integration, both to ensure the tragedies of two devastating wars in 4 decades on the continent is never repeated, & to ensure a united Europe will be a weighty player on the world stage on its own right. However, IMHO the Eurozone has expanded beyond what might be economically sustainable. To make it more sustainable, greater fiscal unity is a must; but that means member economies surrender more of their sovereignty, which is very much in tension w/ the current nativist, nationalistic & protectionist moment in the world, including Europe.
Since its founding the EU has been bolstered by the internal consensus in favor of liberal democratic politics. Cracks are appearing in the consensus, at least WRT to liberalism. Poland & Hungary are becoming increasingly illiberal, w/ worrying signs from Czechia. Ultra right wing governments are in power in Italy & Sweden, & they are on the rise in France. The war in Ukraine is papering over such differences for the time being, but the war will end at some point (the sooner the better), so they will come to the fore again.
Given the expected challenges the world faces economically, geopolitically, & w/ the climate, Eurozone/EU polities will face a great deal of stress. I expect the most challenging days for both are ahead rather than behind. I do hope they survive & thrive, & serve as examples for other regions of the world.
Aside: I also recall nasty rhetoric from Northern European countries (& the British press) crowing about the “austere & industrious Protestant ethic”, versus the “passionate & hedonistic Mediterranean ethos formed to escape Catholic ‘tyranny'”, held by people “blessed w/ too much sun”.
daveNYC
Main thing I remember about the bailout of Greece was that the bailout money went to pay out money that Greece had borrowed from German banks. It was basically a backdoor bailout of the German banking industry.
YY_Sima Qian
@daveNYC: Yes, that too!
Another Scott
As expected, but maybe a little early, Germany’s Defense Minister resigned:
I don’t know how she was on substance after 2/24, but she certainly has a couple of bonehead appearance things that looked horrible. Germany has actually done a lot (probably not enough so far).
We’ll see what is announced soon.
Cheers,
Scott.