If you like NEIVANMADE’s art, well you can get it in a calendar:
Неймовірний календар від @BackAndAlive . Стікери з ілюстраціями на кожен день 2023 року! Маю честь опинитись в чудовій компанії українських ілюстраторів. Хто хоче стікери від #NEIVANMADE, то їх там двадцять чотири 🙂 pic.twitter.com/WAkfSWCy7t
— NEIVANMADE (@neivanmade) January 16, 2023
NEIVENMADE’s tweet machine translates as:
An incredible calendar from @BackAndAlive. Stickers with illustrations for every day of 2023! I am honored to be in the wonderful company of Ukrainian illustrators. If you want stickers from #NEIVANMADE , there are twenty-four of them 🙂
The big news today is that Britain is actually sending tanks to Ukraine.
The Challenger 2 is the latest piece of military equipment the UK is donating to support Ukraine. Read more about it here 👇 pic.twitter.com/Ejg1hnkiuq
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) January 16, 2023
The statement of Ben Wallace, the British Minister of Defence, will be after the jump.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump: (emphasis mine)
Fellow Ukrainians!
The debris of the house destroyed by the Russian missile is still being dismantled in Dnipro. I thank everyone who is carrying out this rescue operation! Every employee of the State Emergency Service and police, every doctor, every volunteer! Everyone who is involved!
As of now, 39 people, including 6 children, have been rescued from under the rubble.
In total, 47 reports were received about those who could have been in the house at the time of the strike and whose fate was unknown. The information about 22 people has been clarified. It is known about 40 dead, including 3 children. My condolences to all whose loved ones were killed by this strike!
The Security Service of Ukraine has already started to gather information about those Russian military who prepared and carried out this strike. There is no doubt: every person guilty of this war crime will be identified and brought to justice.
This strike at Dnipro, as well as other similar strikes, falls, in particular, under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. And we will use all available opportunities – both national and international – to ensure that all Russian murderers, everyone who gives and executes orders on missile terror against our people, face legal sentences. And to ensure that they serve their punishment.
This is a fundamental task for Ukraine and for our partners. I thank everyone who supports our country on the path to justice.
Today, by the way, I spoke with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte – he is one of those who help Ukraine the most, particularly in the issue of justice.
It was our third conversation with Mr. Prime Minister in four weeks.
I am grateful to Mark and all Dutch people for their continued support and clear understanding that Ukrainians must defeat Russian aggression.
Today we discussed protection against Russian missiles and Iranian drones – we are doing everything to strengthen our air defense as much as possible.
It is very important that our conversation took place on the eve of the visit of the Prime Minister of the Netherlands to the United States.
What happened in Dnipro, the fact that Russia is preparing a new attempt to seize the initiative in the war, the fact that the nature of hostilities at the front requires new decisions in the defense supply – all this only emphasizes how important it is to coordinate our efforts – efforts of all members of the coalition to defend Ukraine and freedom. And to speed up decision-making.
Today, there is a good example from the UK. A new package of defense assistance has been announced – exactly what we need. Tanks, other armored vehicles, artillery.
What we discussed with Prime Minister Sunak. I thank you, Rishi, I thank every Briton for the tangible and timely support!
I held a regular meeting of the Staff. The questions are as follows. Interaction with our partners. Counteraction to missile terror. Possible scenarios of enemy actions and our response to each of the probable scenarios.
There were reports of commanders, intelligence chiefs. There were also necessary decisions.
The situation in the Donetsk direction was considered separately and in detail. Soledar, Bakhmut and other cities against which Russia has concentrated its last most prepared forces.
We also reviewed the situation on the southern front. We see what Russia is preparing.
Every day and night we work to reduce the enemy’s potential: every day and night we subtract their warehouses, headquarters, communications.
Today, the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Minister of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia visited Kyiv.
Of course, we discussed first of all how to make the OSCE effective.
This is one of those international organizations that have significant potential, but for various reasons in critical situations have a great lack of concrete actions, a great lack of determination.
The OSCE can significantly increase attention and act accordingly regarding the deportation of our people from the occupied territory to Russia. And regarding the situation with Ukrainian prisoners. No international organization has found the strength to gain access to the places of detention of our prisoners in Russia yet. This must be corrected.
I hope that the OSCE presidency of North Macedonia will contribute to this.
Starting tomorrow, this week will be even more active in terms of our diplomacy.
The Davos Forum will start its work – Ukraine will be heard at this globally important platform.
At the end of the week, a regular meeting in the Ramstein format will be held. We expect fundamental decisions from the coalition of our partners.
Important bilateral negotiations are also planned.
Every day of our diplomatic marathon brings Ukraine quite specific defensive results. And I thank everyone who helps our state! I thank everyone who works for the victory of Ukraine!
Glory to each of our warriors! Glory to all who have been fighting since February 24 and since 2014!
This week, on January 20, we will mark the Day of Honoring the Defenders of the Donetsk airport.
Today we have already started to recall that defense, that heroism of our people. The fight started in May 2014. The last defender left the DAP on January 23, 2015. And it was such a defense that the whole world should have seen back then already what Ukrainian invincibility means.
I am confident that the Ukrainian flag will return to the Donetsk airport, Donetsk and other cities and villages of our Donbas and other temporarily occupied territories. Temporarily is the key word.
Ukraine will return its people and what belongs to it.
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the British Minister of Defence’s statement: (emphasis mine)
Oral statement to Parliament
Defence Secretary oral statement on war in Ukraine
The Defence Secretary made a statement to Parliament updating members on the UK’s continued programme of military aid to Ukraine, including Challenger 2 tanks.From: Ministry of Defence and The Rt Hon Ben Wallace MP
Published 16 January 2023Mr Speaker, it’s been a month since I last updated the House on the situation in Ukraine. Over the last four weeks, extremely heavy and attritional fighting has continued, especially around the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut, and in the less reported-on sector of Kremina, in Luhansk. Over Christmas, Russia has continued its assault on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.
But no matter how cruel or how much loss of life accompanies it, Russia has singularly failed to break the will of the Ukrainian people or change the policy of its leaders. We continue to closely monitor how Russia’s long range strike campaign will evolve, as it eats deeper into its strategic reserves of modern missiles. It is notable that Russia are now using the forced labour of convicts to manufacture weaponry. Ukraine, however, continues using its internationally provided long-range artillery to successful effect.
Mr Speaker, throughout the war, Russia has managed to lose significant numbers of generals and commanding officers. But last week’s announcement that their commander in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, had been unceremoniously bypassed, with Chief of the General Staff General Gerasimov personally taking over field-command, is certainly significant. It is the visible tip of an iceberg of factionalism within the Russian command. Putin apparently remains bullish, and with Gerasimov’s deference to the President never in doubt, we now would expect a trend back towards a Russian offensive – no matter how much loss of life accompanies it.
Mr Speaker, in 2023 there is no loss of momentum from the international community, quite the opposite. President Putin believed the West would get tired, bored and fragment. Ukraine is continuing to fight and, far from fragmenting, the West is accelerating its efforts.
The United States has invested approximately $24.2 billion in support for Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion on the 24th February last year. It has delivered thousands of anti-aircraft and anti-armour systems and has recently stepped up that support – delivering Patriot air defence battery and munitions and 45 refurbished T-72B tanks as well as donating 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles to assist with the counter offensive.
We also welcome the decision of the French government to provide Ukraine with their AMX-10 light, highly mobile, tank. This has been used, very recently in reconnaissance missions by the French army and was deployed as recently as the Barkhane mission in West Africa.
Mr Speaker, important as these contributions are in and of themselves, what matters more is that they represent part of an international effort that collectively conveys a force multiplier effect. None of this is happening unilaterally. No one is doing this on their own.
Soon, I shall be announcing the first round of bids to the joint-chaired Danish/UK International Fund for Ukraine. I am grateful to Sweden for adding to the pot of money donated. That now includes Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands, Iceland, Lithuania and others have donated to that fund.
Meanwhile Russia, isolated and without such support, has now lost over 1,600 main battle tanks in Ukraine since the start of the invasion. But if we’re to continue helping Ukraine seize the upper hand in the next phase of this conflict, we must accelerate our collective efforts diplomatically, economically and militarily to keep the pressure on Putin.
In December I told the House that I was “developing options” to respond to Russia’s continued aggression in a “calibrated and determined manner”. Today I can announce the most significant package of combat power to date to accelerate Ukrainian success.
This includes:
- A squadron of Challenger 2 tanks with armoured recovery and repair vehicles.
- We will donate AS90 guns to Ukraine. This comprises a battery of eight guns at high readiness and two further batteries at varying states of readiness. This donation will not impact our existing AS90 commitment to Estonia.
- Hundreds more armoured and protected vehicles will also be sent including Bulldog.
- A manoeuvre support package, including minefield breaching and bridging capabilities worth £28 million.
- Dozens more uncrewed aerial systems worth £20 million to support Ukrainian artillery.
- Another 100,000 artillery rounds; on top of the 100,000 rounds already delivered.
- Hundreds more sophisticated missiles including GMLRS rockets, Starstreak air defence missiles, and medium range air defence missiles.
- An equipment support package of spares to refurbish up to a hundred Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
While the tanks and the AS90s will come from our stocks, along with their associated ammunition, a significant number of the other donations are being purchased from the open market or from supportive third-party countries.
Today’s package is an important increase in Ukraine’s capabilities. It means they can go from resisting to expelling Russian forces from Ukrainian soil. President Putin cannot win but he is equally certain to continue inflicting this wanton violence and human suffering until his forces are ejected from their defensive positions and expelled from the country.
That requires a new level of support – the combat power only achieved by combinations of main battle tank squadrons, operating alongside divisional artillery groups, and further deep precision fires enabling targeting of Russian logistics and command nodes at greater distance.
Mr Speaker, we will be the first country to donate Western main battle tanks. And, we will be bringing a further squadron of our own Challenger tanks to higher readiness in place of the squadron sent.
Even as we gift Challenger 2 Tanks, I shall, at the same time, be reviewing the number of Challenger 3 conversions to consider whether the lessons of Ukraine suggest that we need a larger tank fleet.
We will also build on the Army’s modernisation programme – at pace. Specifically on artillery, I am accelerating our Mobile Fires Programme. So instead of delivering in the 2030s it will do this earlier this decade. I have also directed that, subject to commercial negotiation, an interim artillery capability is to be delivered.
After discussion with the United States and our European allies it is hoped that the example set by the French and us will allow those countries holding Leopard tanks to donate as well. I know there are a number of countries wanting to do the same. No-one is going it alone, as I have said.
Mr Speaker, it’s worth reiterating why we are doing this. Because in 2023 the international community will not let Russia wait us out while inflicting terrible suffering on Ukrainian civilians. The international community recognises that equipping Ukraine to push Russia out of its territory is as important as equipping them to defend what they already have.
This week dozens of nations will meet in Ramstein, Germany, to progress further donations and international coordination. The Kremlin will be in no doubt that we are resolved to stand by Ukraine in her fight.
Doubling down on the success of our basic training of Ukrainian military in 2022 in the United Kingdom, we are also now increasing this number this year to a further 20,000. Canada, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Norway, New Zealand, the Netherlands have already joined this effort and I’m pleased to say we are now going to be joined by a group of Australian military to train in this country as well. Leaving their summer to join our winter.
Our decision today is a calibrated response to Russia’s growing aggression and indiscriminate bombing. The Kremlin must recognise that is it their behaviour that is solidifying the international resolve and that despite the propaganda Ukraine and her partners are focused on the defence of Ukraine. None of the international support is an attack on Russia, or NATO-orchestrated aggression, let alone a Proxy War.
At its heart it is about helping Ukraine defend itself, upholding international law and restoring its sovereignty. We believe that in 2023, increased supplies, improved training, and strengthening diplomatic resolve will enable Ukraine to be successful against Russia’s poorly led and now badly equipped Armed Forces.
From the outset President Putin believed his forces would be welcomed with open arms, that Ukrainians wouldn’t fight and that Western support would crumble. He has been proved wrong on all counts. Today’s package will help accelerate the conclusion of Putin’s occupation and all its brutality and ensure that in 2023 and beyond if necessary, Ukraine maintains its momentum, supported by an international community that is determined more than ever that Putin’s illegal and unprovoked invasion will fail.
Published 16 January 2023
Thank you to 🇬🇧 for another strong security assistance package.
Tanks, artillery, vehicles, drones, ammo will strengthen our capacity to drive occupiers out of 🇺🇦. These are the tools that will help to build our victory.
Thank you to @RishiSunak @BWallaceMP and the 🇬🇧 people.— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) January 16, 2023
Here’s what Shashank Joshi, The Economist‘s defense correspondent, thinks about today’s announcement:
I’d estimate 70% chance of Leopard tanks being in Ukrainian hands by end of spring. https://t.co/fOuun86IFW
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 16, 2023
Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Kremenna:
KREMINNA AXIS /1320 UTC 16 JAN/ RU forces conducted fire missions on Kuzmyne, indicating the presence of UKR forces. The Forward Edge of the Battle Area (FEBA) is assessed to extend from the center of Kreminna in a southern direction to the banks of the Sievro-Donets River. pic.twitter.com/DA8iNmrxuI
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 16, 2023
Dnipro:
Please remember that a lot of the reporting and statements are now hours old.
The bodies of 40 dead, including 3 children, were found at the house in Dnipro destroyed by a russian missile.
How many Ukrainians must be killed by the terrorist state before the world finally understands that that inaction and hesitancy is equivalent to siding with the killer? pic.twitter.com/HY3b0JRNvF— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 16, 2023
Journalists from iStories called one of the perpetrators of the Dnipro missile strike – Dmitry Golenkov, the chief of staff of an aviation squadron of the Shaikovka aviation group. The man dismisses the accusations, his friends in the background attack and insult the journalist. pic.twitter.com/7Cb7dauInB
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 16, 2023
Bakhmut & Soledar:
Update from Bakhmut/Soledar, 16 January – Kiyanyn. pic.twitter.com/zuuSAxMqLo
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 16, 2023
I know everyone is still raw in regards to the news and imagery coming out of Dnipro and, as such, I think it is important to make sure we take note of the below here:
Did you know there are some good russians? We have 3 battalions of them fighting on our side. Freedom of Russia Legion's sworn goal is to defend Ukraine, restore Ukraine's 1991 borders including Crimea, Donetsk & Luhansk and to topple putin's regime👍 pic.twitter.com/uzV1IPSmpY
— Sofia Ukraini (@SlavaUk30722777) January 16, 2023
Obviously, this is just one video from somewhere and doesn't prove anything apart from that some people are getting fed up.
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 15, 2023
Those people are very brave, choosing to oppose, even knowing that they will lose everything.
Even after 22 years in Putin's regime, there are people standing up and saying that he is not right. Many have not survived this, yet every time there are people standing up.— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 15, 2023
Boom today!
Commandant Col. Curtis King of the U.S. Army Air Defense Artillery school tells @WestfallAustin training will consist of operator and maintainer task. This training is expected to take several months, according to DOD pic.twitter.com/n77uWfWlQB
— Liz Friden (@Liz_Friden) January 16, 2023
Obligatory:
Some more about Poludnytsyahttps://t.co/BpzpGFU0aO
— Sofia Ukraini (@SlavaUk30722777) January 15, 2023
There were two children from Kherson, who were heavily injured by russians’ shelling. The story of brave Artem, who lost his hand, is in the video. I’ll share 6 year old Alisa’s story soon.
— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) January 16, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Ruff the dog
I have spent my adult life not paying attention to armored warfare. Can you give a summery of Challenger, Leopard, Abrams vs T-90 &refurb T-72, and differences in tank doctrine as we thought they were and as we know them now?
Omnes Omnibus
Another 100,000 artillery rounds and you say “No Boom?”
SpaceUnit
Putin is not going to live forever. I just hope that the people surrounding him have some sort of plan in place to keep him from nuking the world from his deathbed.
Also, what an asshole.
Chetan Murthy
@SpaceUnit: He’s got three children. He’s treated them well. I think he wouldn’t want them to die in a nuclear holocaust.
dmsilev
So long and tanks for all the fish! No, wait, that’s not right. So long and fish for all the tanks? Somehow that doesn’t seem quite right either. Aha! So tank and long for all the fish!
Bill Arnold
@SpaceUnit:
Russian nuclear command and control includes the military. The Russian nuclear football can be used to order a strike, but there are other humans in the loop, presumably not on their deathbeds, and who have friends and family and a love of their country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheget
Also this Reuters piece from when people were getting worked up about it in March:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-is-chain-command-potential-russian-nuclear-strikes-2022-03-02/
dmsilev
@Omnes Omnibus: No Boom Today. Apparently the British MOD doesn’t do same-day deliveries.
Omnes Omnibus
@dmsilev: Okay, Boom soon.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I said boom today.
The video says no boom.
I have to work with what’s available.
Medicine Man
I’m grateful for the update Dmitri forwarded. A reminder not to be disheartened by the BS narratives of this grisly russian celebration about their capture of Soledar.
I’m also grateful for good ol fashioned American pugnacity. Really glad you guys have the skill and desire to spearhead efforts to help Ukraine.
Adam L Silverman
@Ruff the dog: Not at 9:30 PM on a school night. I’ll try to include something in the actual update tomorrow.
Medicine Man
@SpaceUnit: The fact his ability to reward or punish any of his henchmen nears its end when he’s on his deathbed will take care of that.
Chetan Murthy
I hope I’m not just being … *blind*, y’know. Ollllld, maybe eyes failing ….
I can’t find a link to order one of those calendars ? Does anybody know how to do so ?
LivinginExile
Thanks for reminding me that there are Russians fighting FOR Ukraine.
Raoul Paste
The German defence Minister has resigned. The Deutsche Welt News service played an unflattering clip of her, suggesting that she had a poor familiarity with military weapons systems.
Deutsche Welt also showed the devastation at Dnipro.
I hope this development means that more German assistance is forthcoming.
SpaceUnit
@Chetan Murthy:
@Bill Arnold:
@Medicine Man:
I really hope you guys are right. The man is a sociopath.
Chetan Murthy
@LivinginExile: I can’t find it now, but there was a video interview of a RU tanker who surrendered, and was now basically the fixit guy for a UA tank battalion. I remember well one of his closing statements: “It is my little dream to someday earn Ukrainian citizenship”. Indeed, there are decent Russians.
Bill Arnold
@SpaceUnit:
I’m not arguing that I’m correct, just saying that the odds against thermonuclear war should include these possibilities. It is still pretty scary.
Also, historically, a few times USSR military members stopped the use of nuclear weapons.
Brachiator
I am not even going to pretend to be knowledgeable about weapons. But I was just listening to a BBC News story which claimed that Poland might be willing to supply Ukraine with Leopard tanks and necessary support equipment. And that these tanks were very good compared to other similar equipment. But these tanks are manufactured by Germany and Poland would need permission to let Ukraine have these vehicles. The story noted the resignation of the German defense official, and also noted that Germany would coordinate any decision with consultation and approval of US officials.
I recall that one of the big lies of the Orange Weasel was that America was not respected by Europe until he restored the country’s mojo, but it seems clear that the Biden Administration is seen as more reliable and dependable.
Anyway, the BBC News story is worth checking out.
SpaceUnit
@Bill Arnold:
Yeah. Not too long ago I read the story of a top officer on a Russian submarine during the Cuban missile crisis. They had nuclear weapons and were being bombarded with depth charges by the US Navy in an attempt to make them surface.
The three top officers on the sub had to all agree to deploy the nukes, but this one particular officer held out. Wish I could remember his name. We should all know it.
Ruff the dog
@Adam L Silverman: cool, tanks a lot!! I will look forward to it.
Adam L Silverman
@SpaceUnit: I did a post on that guy a few years back.
cain
With the US House controlled by Putin’s allies – we out for the count for now. So glad to hear that the UK will be sending them tanks. Keeping Putin occupied means that he can’t focus on us anyways.
As for him nuking – I’m not sure that his order will be obeyed. I think everyone likes the world as it is.
SpaceUnit
@Adam L Silverman:
What was his name?
Ruff the dog
@dmsilev: at this very moment I am reading Venus on the Halfshell by Kilgore Trout, and I understand from the Pedia of Wikis that it is not unrelated to your comment.
Adam L Silverman
@SpaceUnit: I don’t recall.
Omnes Omnibus
Not so. Money that has already been budgeted will still be spent. Do you think we are training Ukrainian soldiers on Bradleys and Patriots just for fun?
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: This? https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/oct/27/vasili-arkhipov-soviet-submarine-captain-who-averted-nuclear-war-awarded-future-of-life-prize#:~:text=On%2027%20October%201962%2C%20Vasili,were%20unaware%20of%20the%20intention.
SpaceUnit
@Chetan Murthy:
Thank you.
Bill Arnold
Why No Mushroom Clouds? (Michael Krepon, December 16, 2019)
The Pale Scot
The problem with the Challengers is that they have have a rifled barrel instead of the NATO standard smoothbore that everyone else uses. So the only ammo supply is from the UK, which is not producing any at the moment. So how many rounds can the UK spare?
Ruff the dog
@Adam L Silverman: tanks a lot! My knowledge is based on 1980’s Fulda Gap combined arms doctrine and I hear the world has changed since then.
Gin & Tonic
@SpaceUnit: Serhii Plokhy’s history of the Cuban Missile Crisis is excellent.
Gin & Tonic
@SpaceUnit: Vasily Arkhipov.
ETA: Too slow.
Ruff the dog
@dmsilev: I just finished (like five minutes ago) Venus on the Halfshell by Kilgore Trout, which the Pedia of Wikis says is not unrelated to your literary allusions.
(My memory says I posted this but reloading the comments indicates I did not. Sorry if it appears twice).
Windpond
@SpaceUnit:Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov
Carlo Graziani
Great update tonight! Lots to think about.
From Mr Defence Secretary’s statement:
…which is a reminder of how much other stuff goes with a tank donation, in order for the tanks not to become useless within a week or two. This will also be true of the Leopards, when (as now seems inevitable) they finally show up. And, as we know, training of tankers and mechanics on all that stuff. Perhaps some training has already happened informally, in Poland? Nothing in the German re-export rules to forbid such a thing, so far as I know…
Clearly the upgunning of Ukraine is entering a new phase. We’ve moved on from just artillery, to air defense suppression, to large-scale air defense, but now there’s something qualitatively new: offensive infantry and armor tools. This tells us that NATO nations are not just blowing smoke when they talk about evicting the Russians from Ukrainian territory. They are preparing the UA to seize and hold the initiative in the war in 2023.
Also to be kept in mind: policy decisions like this are not made from one week to the next, let alone at the pace of news cycles. This UK package must have been in preparation for many weeks, and under active discussion with the US. There are certainly other decisions in preparation now that we won’t know about for weeks. This is the reason I choose to trust the Biden administration’s judgment in management of the NATO coalition in support of the war: stuff keeps happening under the radar, when on the surface one might be misled into believing there is hesitation and inaction.
Barrels! Omnes? Are you still awake? I was sure you’d fall to your knees weeping for joy.
SpaceUnit
@Gin & Tonic:
We should all say his name.
NutmegAgain
@Raoul Paste: Uh-oh! pedantic alert!! I think you’ll find that service is Deutsche Welle, not Welt. Got that out of my system, phew.
Andrya
We should also remember Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov, who was on duty at the Soviet “missile attack early warning system” on Sept. 26, 1983. A computer malfunction mistook light reflections off clouds for incoming NATO missiles- first one missile, then five. And this was at a time when then-President Reagan was indulging in a lot of bellicose talk toward the USSR. Petrov correctly calculated that this must be a mistake (partly because NATO would not do a first strike with only five missiles)- so, he did not report the incident up the chain of command. This was quite risky for him, and actually did severely damage his career.
SpaceUnit
@Windpond:
Okay, saying his name is easier said than done.
He’s still a righteous dude.
sdhays
@cain: There’s a majority of support for funding Ukraine in the House. It may include only a minority of Republicans, but it’s a majority of the House, and the Senate and President are involved in budgeting too.
It’s right to place emphasis on the risk the House Republicans pose, but just accepting that they have ended any future funding for Ukraine is just defeatist and, frankly, gives them too much credit.
Sister Golden Bear
@Omnes Omnibus: “No boom today. Boom tomorrow. And always a boom tomorrow.”
SpaceUnit
@Andrya:
Amen. I’ve read that story as well.
YY_Sima Qian
@The Pale Scot:
That is indeed a logistical challenge, worse than w/ the Leopard 2. In any case, the Ukrainian Army has into introduce another type of tank main gun ammo, in addition to the Soviet-pattern 125 mm smoothbores on the T-80s/T-72s/T-64 models it has been using. When the Leopard 2s do come, it will yet another another type of tank main gun ammo. After the war, the Ukrainian personnel overseeing logistics will be able to write books & give lessons, given the bewildering array of platforms, weapons & munitions they have to deal w/.
BTW, it seems the British Army has finally come to its senses & is adopting the NATO standard Rheinmetall 120 mm smoothbore for the Challenger 3 upgrade? Long overdue.
Another Scott
I really wonder if those published maximum speed numbers are an intent to fool adversaries.
I remember in the late 1970s driving on the highway in West Virginia and coming across a National Guard unit out practicing. They were having no trouble driving their M60 tanks down the highway with the rest of us at 55-60 mph. (Maybe my memory is faulty and it was a different model, but it was before the M1(Axyz), and they were certainly going a lot faster than <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M60_tank">30 mph.)
Dunno.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold:
From the Michael Krepon article you shared:
Another reason to avoid dehumanizing one’s rivals & enemies, especially now that nukes are part of the arsenal.
Also a reminder that a blockade or a quarantine is an act of war, & depth charging a submarine in international waters definitely would be considered an act of war today (incredibly reckless back then). That is why I am frightened by the analyses out of Beijing & DC appearing to postulate that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan and/or a US-led distant blockade (at the Malacca Strait, for instance) of China would somehow be less than “kinetic”, & the determined effort all around refusing to address the risk of escalation to nuclear war when war gaming conventional conflicts between China & the US over Taiwan. An awful lot of inks have been spilled & will be spilled, an awful lot of money have been spent & will be spent, to win a conventional war in the Taiwan setting, but little effort that I can see on how to avoid an escalation to WMDs.
Another Scott
@Another Scott: Bah. Sorry for the mangled HTML.
You get the idea though, I hope.
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
New bridge/logistical target! Per ISW:
On Google Maps satellite view, the Henichesk bridge is a roadway-only, not holding a railway span like Kerch does. Also not currently in HIMARS M-31 munition range. Still, something for SOF to think about.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: The M60 has even lower published on-road max speed than the M1 models. ~ 60 – 70 km/hr is typical for max on road speed for tanks build in the past couple of decades. Perhaps the tanks you saw were running light (no ammo, no add-on armor & partial fuel load)?
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: I can’t explain it. And I may not have IDed it correctly. But it had treads and a big gun and a guy was sticking his head out grinning at us as we were all startled that something that big could go so fast.
Cheers,
Scott.
jonas
@Raoul Paste:
She was way out of her depth from the very beginning. When she was appointed defense minister — she had zero background in defense or foreign policy — it was taken as a sign of the government’s unseriousness about military matters. Then Ukraine happened and while Germany has been perhaps a bit cautious, they’re standing pretty firm against Russia and have been providing important assistance and equipment to Ukraine. But Scholz’s government has since also committed to rebuilding Germany’s military capability and it was clear that Lamprecht wasn’t the person for the job, so she had to go.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: Well, weapons systems are generally capable of exceeding the published max parameters, that includes the published max on-road speeds of main battle tanks. However, tanks probably cannot sustainably perform beyond published max due to high risk of major mechanical failure.
Hangö Kex
Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov has restored my faith in humanity. Which is no small feat. Also, I miss Alison Rose.
YY_Sima Qian
@jonas: I think it is common in Parliamentary systems for cabinet ministers not to have much or any experience in a portfolio prior to assuming responsibility. Ursula von Der Leyen had no prior experience w/ nations defense or foreign policy prior to becoming Merkel’s Defense Minister for 6 yrs. They have to rely upon the bureaucracy in formulating executable plans & strategies to achieve politically decided objectives, & are entirely reliant upon the bureaucracy to execute said plans & strategies.
I have always wondered how cabinet ministers in the Parliamentary system could possibly supervise & control the bureaucracy in their respective ministries, given the asymmetry in knowledge & experience. I have also been bewildered by the cabinet re-shuffles that can happen when the PMs in the UK or Australia are under duress, where portfolios seem to be scrambled willy-nilly. Perhaps commenters living in Parliamentary democracies can help explain.
As for the specific case of Lambrecht, my speculation is that she was scapegoated by Scholz. I would rather doubt she is the main decision maker on sending weapons to Ukraine. I think we have seen quite a bit of reporting that Scholz is pretty hands on when it come to matters related to Russia & China, & on occasion is willing to override recommendations by the cabinet majority.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: You should watch the BBC shows Yes, Minister, and the sequel, Yes, Prime Minister. All your questions will be answered.
Hangö Kex
@YY_Sima Qian: Quite, the ministers – if they are wise – rely on the senior civil servants (sometimes they don’t, but the result tends to be a hot mess). (I think there is a poem by Eino Leino about this; I’ll post it if I manage to find it.)
TheMightyTrowel
@Carlo Graziani: also The Thick Of It
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Ruff the dog: There are a variety of videos on YouTube that are capable of explaining a variety of tanks well enough even my ignorant self can understand them. I am watching one now: Task & Purpose run by Chris Capy who served in Iraq. He can be a bit of a goof, but he knows his stuff. Or knows people who do. Perun is another one, recommended by Adam himself. Just about any video he puts out is worth a watch. Also, too, Wikipedia can be your friend in this endeavour. Adam does so much hard work on these updates, let’s not add to his burdens.
Adam thanks again for your generosity with your time and expertise. We are blessed to have you.
Slava Ukraini!😁
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
@Hangö Kex:
I have never watched either show beginning to end, but I have watched many clips. Absolutely hilarious!
However, this was intended as a serious question. Presumably policy is still set by the ruling cabinet, through the specific cabinet minister, but how could execution of plans & strategies in service of the declared policy actually happen if the senior civil servants & the bureaucracy seek to frustrate them at every turn? Or does the bureaucracy really do carry out the orders even if they have misgivings? I have read about both happening, especially in the Japanese context.
2liberal
deleted
TheMightyTrowel
@YY_Sima Qian: In Australia the public service is supposed to be the source of expertise and empowered to offer “Frank and fearless advice” when approached by a minister seeking the best way to implement govt policy. That doesn’t always work, and in fact we’re in a moment of particular turmoil because our last (conservative) govt did a lot of work to undermine and hollow out the PS through private contracting, job losses and political appointments to top PS roles which effectively politicised the bureaucracy. It’s still better imho that empowering a bunch of senior military people to think they’re running the show a la the States, but it can get farcical. Ideally ministers are appointed to portfolios they care about – our current edu minister for example is the first in his family to go to uni and always made ed policy one of his main concerns. Obvs, again, that’s an ideal and not standard reality…
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m sure it’s a sort of dance. One can give “orders”, but at the level of detailed implementation, with details of importance not always grasped by ministers (and hardly ever by new ones) and latencies of weeks expected for various processes to play out, it would take enormous focus and determination and perseverance for a minister to bend a recalcitrant civil service. Churchill in wartime was notorious for his ability to instill terror in civil servants with his ACTION THIS DAY scrawls on proposal memos, and for exploiting his memory and his energy and his long experience of government to require follow-up results to his directives. It had good and bad aspects. Brooke and the IGS often wished they could shield themselves from his notional generalship, for good reason. Most ministers are less formidable.
Probably better results are attained in longer-lived governments with longer-tenured ministers who are both more experienced and have arrived at some compromise understanding and modus vivendi with their respective secretaries, who are themselves creatures of politics in a way. But there certainly is no incentive for the civil service to go out of its way to comply with the full spirit of directives from a minister whose tenure is very likely ephemeral, where that spirit is felt disruptive of long-settled policy. In this, Yes, Minister is spot on.
Carlo Graziani
Duplicate, deleted.
YY_Sima Qian
@TheMightyTrowel: Thank you for the explanation!
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Thank makes sense. Thanks!
TheMightyTrowel
@YY_Sima Qian: I think the point is that the ministers are not expected to be able to do the nitty gritty of implementation or even to know whether idea X will violate longstanding rule A if made immediately into law – in the same way a tall ship’s captain doesn’t make the nails or plane the planks, but has a carpenter and blacksmith they listen to instead.
YY_Sima Qian
@TheMightyTrowel: Using your analogy, the civil servants in the bureaucracy are expected to follow the directions from the cabinet minister, but that is far less assured than on a sailing ship.
In Japan, the bureaucrats in the Japanese ministries had a long tradition of holding policy swings in either direction by the ruling government at any given time firmly in check . So a lot of domestic or foreign policy initiatives would be announced w/ fanfare but follow up actions much more muted. This has finally changed during the Shinzo Abe era, as the twin anxieties caused by a rising China & potentially unreliable US has driven the Japanese elite & bureaucracy to accelerate their “normalization” process. This is happening under the guise of tightened alliance w/ the US, but the ultimate goal (long held & long cherished by “normalization’s” staunchest proponents among the revanchist right wing) is to enable Japan to survive potential US abandonment & allow Japan to act w/o constraint (including those imposed by the US).
lowtechcyclist
@dmsilev:
CHICOLINI: I wouldn’t go out there unless I was in one of those big iron things go up and down like this. What do you call those things?
FIREFLY: Tanks.
CHICOLINI: You’re welcome.
zhena gogolia
@Hangö Kex: I miss Alison too.
lee
Your post mentioned the Russians that are doing good in Ukraine. I would also point out the Russians that fled the mobilization (I believe the upper estimate is about 500k). I’m sure the vast majority of them did it for selfish reasons for not wanting to die for Russia, but they still did an actual good thing of robbing the Russian Army of able bodies.
teakay
@SpaceUnit: The Minuteman Missile National Historic Site in Wall, South Dakota is a fascinating place to visit. The museum itself is very small. But it features taped interviews with the elderly former Russian officer who defied orders and offers a peek at the interior of a South Dakota silo (whose numbers are now greatly reduced) whose tight interior holds two very young soldiers who are always within eyesight of each other during their long shifts. It lists the alarming number of times catastrophe was averted. You can also gaze down the silo of a deactivated ICBM at a site a couple of miles away. There are 400 of these silos still active dotting the great plains. Initially, many of the farmers and ranchers in the area were none to happy to have these on their land but they got used to them and the bump to the local economy was appreciated. The museum is a couple of hours drive from the fantastic Custer State Park, considered by some as the best state park in the country.
WaterGirl
@sdhays:
And too much power!
Gin & Tonic
@teakay: There’s a great book on a lot of the near-disasters named Command and Control. IIRC, raven has read it; I have, too. It’s not a good book if you want to sleep soundly.
teakay
@Gin & Tonic: There is a documentary on Amazon prime video of the same name that I will have to watch. Most of my reading is done in the later evening so I try (often unsucessfully) to go with somniferous content. Thanks for the tip.
Andrya
@sdhays: I really hope you are right (Republican support in the House for Ukraine), but there is a problem. I assume Kevin McCarthy will follow the Hastert Rule, which says that a Republican speaker will only allow a vote on a bill that a majority of Republicans support. (McCarthy is clearly terrified of the extreme right in his caucus who are objectively pro-putin.)
IIUC, the Hastert Rule can only be overridden by a discharge petition, which requires the signatures (not just the votes) of a majority of the entire House. Thus, 6 Republicans would have to join the Democrats in actually signing the petition (assuming 100% of Democrats sign.) And those who signed would, without doubt, be primaried as “traitors who sold out to Democrats”. Those primary challenges would have a very high probability of being successful.
I would expect a lot of pro-Ukraine Republicans would do pathetic weaseling: “yes I support Ukraine, but a discharge petition is a step too far”.
There’s also the upcoming debt limit crisis: no one knows how that will play out, but it will probably put pressure on moderate Republicans to stick to the party line.
If this isn’t a dead thread, I’d be very interested in comments or corrections.
SteverinoCT
A friend gave me a signed copy of his book, since I was a submariner. I didn’t really know the background, and the book was so turgid I never got through it. A naval officer is not necessarily a good writer. OTOH it had to go through translation, so I can’t say how good the original is. I’ll have to dig it out and give it another go.
Bill Arnold
@Andrya:
Republican Representatives in purple districts might be more willing; they were elected in a purple district, and the GOP would know that a primary win by a loon would mean a probable general election HR seat loss.
Geminid
@Andrya: Discharge petitions are rarely if ever successful. Usually the parties are too cohesive for dissenters to take that step.
I would not rule a successful discharge petition out in this Congress, though. Dominance by radicals in the Republican caucus may cause defections from their counterparts on the less radical side.
And while it is true generaly that a defector would be punished in their 2024 primaries, there are exceptions. One type is would be Representatives like Don Bacon (NE), who probably intends to retire anyway. Then there are David Valadeo (CA) and Dan Newsome (WA). They ran in open, “jungle” primary states and won reelection despite voting to impeach Trump.
I think that Brian Kilpatrick(?) (PA) and Jen Kiggans (VA-2) might be exceptions also. Kilpatrick represents a purple, fairly affluent district in the Philadelphia suburbs that a more radical Republican would probably lose. Republicans there might be too pragmatic to ditch him over this issue.
Kiggans will be interesting to watch this year. She’s the freshman Rep who just beat Elaine Luria (also a retired Navy Lt. Commander). Kiggans is already in conflict with the radicals because their program of budget cutting will hurt her district, which is heavily dependent on federal spending. Strong support from establishment Republicans helped Kiggans beat a more radical oponent in 2022, and might carry her in 2024. Republican Rob Wittman in the adjacent 1st CD is in a similar position.
A general obsevation: the Republicans’ intra-party struggle over Ukraine aid will be conditioned in part by the course of the war itself. If Ukraine is clearly winning six months from now, that should strengthen the hands of those favoring aid. Conversely, a stalemate would favor Gaetz’s faction.
Andrya
@Bill Arnold: @Geminid: Thanks!