… As chief science officer for the administration’s Covid-19 response, Dr. Kessler, 71, has operated largely unseen by the public. But his work — on issues like setting up mass vaccination sites, pushing for the development of antiviral medicines and distributing reformulated booster shots — has affected the lives of millions of Americans.
“Six hundred sixty-five million vaccines, 13 million antivirals,” Dr. Kessler said in a brief interview on Friday, referring to the number of doses that Americans have taken since December 2020, shortly before President Biden took office. “We did what we set out to do.”…
Dr. Kessler’s departure signals the end of Operation Warp Speed, which was started by the Trump administration to develop and distribute coronavirus vaccines. Although the Biden administration dropped the name, the mission of the program under Dr. Kessler remained the same. Now the Biden administration is working to shift Covid vaccination from a government-run effort to one that will be handled by the private sector.
In his role, Dr. Kessler was responsible for negotiating with drug companies to make certain that vaccines were available to anyone who wanted one — at a price for the government that was far lower than what companies want to charge on the commercial market in the future.
It seems unlikely that the Biden administration will replace Dr. Kessler. Officials say the Department of Health and Human Services has other doctors, scientists and public health officials with expertise who will work with the White House and private industry on vaccine research and development.
Dr. Kessler had hopes of building a more permanent infrastructure for vaccine development and manufacturing. In late 2021, the administration announced a plan, drafted by Dr. Kessler, to invest billions of dollars to expand vaccine manufacturing capacity by partnering with industry to prepare for future pandemics…
The plan was set aside, however, when Congress refused to give the administration any additional money to spend on vaccines. The billions the administration had hoped to spend to ramp up vaccine manufacturing capacity went instead to purchasing the updated booster shots now being distributed…
After +1M people in the US died in the Covid pandemic, you might have thought there'd be an after-action review of the country's response & traction for changes so next time goes better. But you'd have been wrong. @rachelcohrs explores where things stand. https://t.co/rGhJsCswYP
— Helen Branswell ???? (@HelenBranswell) January 11, 2023
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Gift (unpaywalled) link:
China on Saturday made a significant revision of its official death toll in the latest outbreak of the coronavirus — to nearly 60,000 deaths linked to covid-19 since December, when pandemic restrictions were lifted and infections surged across the country, up from just 37…
Authorities have recently come under added scrutiny following reports of overwhelmed funeral homes and hospitals. A report by The Washington Post last week documented a surge in traffic outside funeral homes, according to satellite imagery, firsthand videos and interviews with crematorium staff and residents.
The National Health Commission said in a news briefing that hospitals recorded at least 59,938 covid-19-related deaths between Dec. 8 and Jan. 12. Of those deaths, 5,503 involved respiratory failure caused by the virus, and the rest of the deaths were caused by underlying diseases combined with covid-19. The average age of patients who had died was 80.3 years old.
China had previously reported just 37 deaths between Dec. 7 and Jan. 8, the last date that the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported daily figures. As of Jan. 8, China’s CDC had reported a total of 5,272 deaths since the pandemic began.
National Health Commission official Jiao Yahui said there has been a decline in patients visiting fever clinics in cities and rural areas, from a peak of 2.9 million on Dec. 23 to fewer than 500,000 on Jan. 12.
“The data show that the national emergency peak has passed,” Jiao said…
Good to see- Shenzhen is providing 85% coverage for COVID hospitalization from January 8 to March 31. This is the sort of thing I would have expected them to have in place *before* dropping Zero-COVID, but local government was clearly as blindsided as the rest of us😕 pic.twitter.com/8ckZA2zMTE
— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) January 17, 2023
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It is sad to see that things have gotten worse in Japan, with fatalities towering above its prior waves https://t.co/4GVLATIav4 pic.twitter.com/4lccBLVoky
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 15, 2023
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Axing the ONS infection survey would be a MASSIVE mistake.
Instead of cutting it we should be EXPANDING it – we have an opportunity for an incredible public health tool. Let's add Flu, RSV & other resp viruses and really understand their seasonality 1/2https://t.co/7XFROqx8R8
— Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 (@chrischirp) January 12, 2023
Counting the 2020 #COVID19 hospital costs, pre-#vaccine & #Paxlovid
– Spain $1.4 billion total; mean of $6,479/patient
– Canada: $12,728 mean/patient
– Greece: $10,110
– USA: $14,366
– Turkey: $881.75https://t.co/XUbWUri3PF— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 16, 2023
From a longer thread:
We enter 2023 with complex population immunity profile and a fast evolving virus. Watch today's @IndependentSage for immunity discussion.https://t.co/3T7XigzuKr
Next week we'll discuss airborne transmission and HOW we can get to cleaner indoor air – a key mitigation! 13/13
— Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 (@chrischirp) January 13, 2023
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– "We found that citizens in these countries responded quite differently to stringent COVID policies"
– "we saw stricter governmental #pandemic policy was associated with higher political unrest across states within the U.S., while the opposite was true for states in Brazil."— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 14, 2023
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Innovations in #Covid vaccines are likely in 2023. We may finally get a nasal vax & redesigns of the inoculations that have gotten us this far in the pandemic. Nasal vaccines prompt "mucosal immunity" where the virus 1st enters the body https://t.co/tXSHX3Nsel
— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) January 15, 2023
As people adapt to #COVID19 and make their own assessment of the risks and benefits of their behaviour, modelling becomes more complex. @Dr_D_Robertson examines why virus trends are more difficult to predict three years on: https://t.co/VoBphmdbSp Via @ConversationUK
— Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (@gavi) January 15, 2023
Amazing, timely, comprehensive, and evidence-based review – Long COVID: major findings, mechanisms and recommendations – by @ahandvanish @LisaAMcCorkell @juliamv @EricTopol. This is a #MustRead and is already my go-to review on #LongCovid. https://t.co/hPzJYKniLI
— Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity) January 16, 2023
The ~80% bivalent booster vaccine effectiveness (US and Israel studies) summarized is compared to controls with prior infections, vaccinations and boosters, making that high level of protection for people age 65+ noteworthy
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 14, 2023
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Here you go Congresswoman. This is a list of the leading causes of death around the world before we started vaccinating people for COVID. https://t.co/rUrk6CPuBz pic.twitter.com/QV1pDft3dr
— Jonathan Reiner (@JReinerMD) January 12, 2023
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There is no place in the multiverse where the vaccine has been shown to be riskier than COVID. @elonmusk, get a clue. https://t.co/QRHuPo6ZOQ pic.twitter.com/gu2wSZO3sm
— Debunk the Funk (@Debunk_the_Funk) January 16, 2023
On The Road – Munira – TwilightReader Interactions
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Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 227 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 5,032,904 cases. 223 of these new cases were local infections; four new cases were imported. It also reported six deaths, for an adjusted cumulative total of 36,914 deaths – 0.73% of the cumulative reported total, 0.73% of resolved cases.
11,867 Covid-19 tests were conducted yesterday, with a positivity rate of 2.2%.
There were 10,331 active cases yesterday, 146 fewer than the day before. 457 were in hospital. 21 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, nine confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 367 more patients recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,985,659 patients recovered – 99.1% of the cumulative reported total.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 7,547 doses of vaccine on 16th January: 67 first doses, 61 second doses, 817 first booster doses, and 6,602 second booster doses. The cumulative total is 72,677,593 doses administered: 28,124,169 first doses, 27,535,601 second doses, 16,291,563 first booster doses, and 726,260 second booster doses. 86.1% of the population have received their first dose, 84.3% their second dose, 49.9% their first booster dose, and 2.2% their second booster dose.
New Deal democrat
There are two noteworthy things happening re COVID right now:
1. COVID infections and hospitalizations hit their winter peaks in 2021 and 2022 between January 9 and 15 (after Holiday get-togethers created spikes in both). It appears that this year the same thing has happened: confirmed cases appear to have peaked on January 9 at 76,200, and are now back down to 47,600. Even more importantly, Biobot updated yesterday, showing a 30% decline in COVID particles in wastewater since the end of December.
The same is true of hospitalizations, which peaked at 47,000 on January 3, and are now down to 38,200 (vs. their autumn low of 22,900).
Deaths peaked on January 14 in 2021 at 3380, and on February 1 in 2022 at 2600. This year deaths *may* have peaked at 597 on January 11 and are now back down to 532, still at the top of their range since last March.
2. Incredibly, all four Census regions show declines in Biobot, with the Northeast and Midwest both plunging most sharply. But even in the South and West, where XBB&.1.5 made up no more than 20% of cases in the CDC’s report last Friday, Biobot also shows declines. Confirmed cases also remain lowest in the States of the the Pacific and Mountain West, and the Northern Plains. The Northeast is still the hardest hit region, per Biobot; even with the big decline, particles are equivalent to their BA.2.12.1 peak. The West is faring the best, with particles equivalent to their lows of the past 9 months.
I think Dr. Eric Topol correctly ascribes this to the US.’s “immunity wall” from prior infections + vaccinations:
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1615085459033718784?cxt=HHwWgIDUud_q9-ksAAAA
It’s important to note that even so, the US is on track for 100,000+ excess deaths since last March. Most of these are seniors, and most are unvaccinated or un-boosted. This is apparently what endemicity is going to look like.
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
104 new cases on 01/13/22.
91 new cases on 01/14/22.
74 new cases on 01/15/22.
52 new cases on 01/16/22.
Deaths at 2139, only up 3 from last week. This is looking better.
As for hospital beds, still only 3% are actually available, including 17 ICU beds among 4 hospitals. The largest hospital has no regular available beds and only 3 ICU beds open.
lowtechcyclist
“The plan was set aside, however, when Republicans in Congress refused to give the administration any additional money to spend on vaccines.”
FTFY, FTFNYT.
I get so goddamn tired of media just saying ‘Congress’ did this or that, when it’s almost always one specific party that’s responsible. If it’s something bad, it’s almost always the Rethugs, of course, and this sort of underreporting lets their malfeasance fly under the radar.
YY_Sima Qian
On 2/14 the China National Health Commission provided a summary of the exit tsunami in China from 12/8 to 1/12:
Given the uneven distribution of ICU beds, as well as different parts of the country peaking at slightly different times, there may still be places in China where ICUs remain under strain.
Needless to say, deaths at hospitals greatly understate overall COVID-19 related deaths, given how overwhelmed the hospitals were from 2nd half of Dec. to early Jan. & how many deaths occurred at home. I have seen guesstimates that actual total deaths is ~ an order magnitude higher than deaths at hospital. If China had seen ~ 600K COVID-19 related deaths by 1/12, there is high probability total deaths will be < 1M when the exit tsunami finally recedes. That includes a possible small wave following Chinese New Year travels. The exit waves that lasted 3 – 4 months in other former Zero COVID countries has been compressed into 1.5 months in China. Ultimately, the toll will be told by excess mortality. China just announced the births & deaths data for 2022 (1/1 – 12/31): total population declined by 825K, mainly driven by reduced births (all the uncertainties associated w/ unpredictable lockdowns didn’t help). Deaths at 10.41M was unchanged from 2021. Annual deaths in China have steadily increased over since 2001, w/ every year seeing either the same deaths as the previously year or greater. This could complicate calculation of excess deaths.
Among the my & my wife’s circle of contacts, which run to many hundreds of people, only a handful have not yet tested positive or developed symptoms. They are primarily urban residents, however. In terms of rural areas, more & more provinces have published estimates over the past 2 weeks that 80 – 90% of their populations have been infected, that does not leave many people even in rural areas who are still COVID-19 virgins, & many of these will likely be infected during the Chinese New Year reunions.
China is now updating vaccination data on a monthly basis, too.
On 1/16, Hong Kong reported 4,653 new positive cases & 50 new deaths. There have been 12,863 total COVID-19 deaths to date. The latest wave in the territory is subsiding.
On 1/16, Macau reported 3 new deaths. The territory has not published reports on new cases since 1/13 There have been 113 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
On 1/16, Taiwan added 19,970 new positive cases & 30 new deaths. There have been 15,903 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
YY_Sima Qian
On a more personal note, the husband of one of my aunts passed away on Saturday. His condition was stabilizing, but he suffered sudden renal system failure which prevented use of IVs, & he deteriorated very quickly after that. He was 85, had been in ill-health for years, unvaccinated.
Old School
@YY_Sima Qian: Sorry for your loss.
lowtechcyclist
The thing that gets me about Covid continuing to be the leading cause of LEO deaths is that few of them are in the age brackets with the most deaths. They shouldn’t be all that high-risk for dying of Covid.
Wanderer
raven
I’m a week out from returning from LA. I did the “put your face in mask mode” so I masked in the airports but took it off in the plane. We’ll see if it worked.
Ohio Mom
@lowtechcyclist: LEO are in the high-risk group of rabid Right-wingers. Though that may not be an established category used by epidemiologists.
Steeplejack
lowtechcyclist
@Ohio Mom:
True, but even though a pretty good chunk of the population across all age groups is in that high-risk category, it doesn’t seem to bump up the overall numbers anything like what you’d expect on account of the LEO numbers.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Apparently the subtext to anti-vaccers is it goes back to colonial America when the concept of vaccinations was introduced to Americans by black Islamic slaves. Comically discussed here at 9:06
NorthLeft
My wife, daughter and I were just discussing that we had not heard anything stupid/offensive from Musk for awhile…….and there it is. Worst for last.
Thanks again Anne for doing these posts. Very informative.
Jay
Thanks again to Anne Laurie and all the commentors for keeping us informed.
Manyakitty
@lowtechcyclist: I suspect that most of those LEO deaths occurred among the unvaccinated, who inexplicably pair their masculinity with cluelessness.
Amir Khalid
Just where did Elon get that nonsense about Covid vaccines? Did he do his own research?
Jay
@lowtechcyclist: the profession is infamous for being wingnut factories, a macha attitude, poor self care, a mostly sedentary work style and a large volume of close quarters interactions with the public, often the marginalized.
Matt McIrvin
COVID has come to a member of my household, no worse than the common cold so far, but we’ll all be testing and taking precautions and it’s disrupted their travel plans in an utterly disappointing way.
I figured this was only a matter of time, but I am glad we managed to hold it off long enough that we can be the beneficiaries of good vaccines and good antiviral treatments if it comes to that.
YY_Sima Qian
@Old School:
@Wanderer:
Thank you!
We really thought he would pull through, having overcome the most dangerous 36 hrs when blood oxygen was low. His daughter, my cousin, is a department head nurse at a major hospital, & her boyfriend is a veteran doctor in the same hospital. They were able to leverage their connections to set him up w/ a better standard of care than the average patient. They were also able to obtain Paxlovid for him, but it was well after the optimal time for taking the drug. He had a week of low grade fever at home, before presenting stronger respiratory symptoms & low blood oxygen. That was when the family arranged for him to go to a hospital. I do wonder if getting him hospital care earlier would have give him a better chance. My wife’s grandparents checking into a hospital as soon as they had persistently low grade fever may have helped them. But you never really know.
YY_Sima Qian
@Matt McIrvin: Keeping fingers crossed!
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: How could the “immunity wall” be present in every US region except the Northeast?
Barbara
@YY_Sima Qian: I’m sorry for your loss. This sounds exactly like what happened to the family member of one of my in-laws — elderly and in ill health (prior stroke, early dementia), with a relatively mild Covid episode, with sudden, acute deterioration in renal function.
@YY_Sima Qian: Just read the greater details, and I mean, this sounds exactly like what happened. He was seemingly recovering at home when symptoms increased and he went to the hospital. Given sudden onset of renal deterioration — several days after being admitted to the hospital — it doesn’t seem like an earlier hospital admission would have helped him. But it’s hard not to wonder.
Matt McIrvin
@YY_Sima Qian: If you look at the CDC’s regional variant counts, I think the thing that’s actually happening is just that XBB.1.5 isn’t dominant outside the East Coast yet. Everyone had a Christmas wave; ours was just bigger because it was also the XBB.1.5 wave. For the rest of the US the effect of the new variant will probably be more drawn-out as it arrives, because the Thanksgiving-Christmas-New Year’s holiday season is over.
New Deal democrat
@YY_Sima Qian: There are always going to be some regional variations from the national average. XBB hit the Northeast first, before the Holiday get-togethers which have served to spread the disease, which probably explains their relatively higher rate of infections. Unfortunately hospitalizations aren’t broken down by State, but deaths are, and there the Northeast remains below most of their 2020-21 numbers, even at the XBB peak.
Hope that is helpful.
P.S. My condolences on your family’s loss.
NotoriousJRT
COVID is taking people. My sister in law was taken a few days after Christmas. A resident of FL, there was nary a mask in sight the whole time I was there for her memorial. We all were in deep shock at her passing. It was ferocious and perhaps mercifully quick. I was the least shocked of all as I am regarded as the one of the family alarmists.
YY_Sima Qian
@Barbara: Thank you! COVID-19 is a tricky bastard.
YY_Sima Qian
@New Deal democrat: Thank you!
I think I misunderstood your earlier post. The “immunity wall” is in the relatively low number of severe outcomes in the Northeast, despite the immuno-escape & transmissive properties of the XBB.1.5, not that the rest of the US will somehow escape the infection wave that has hit the Northeast.
YY_Sima Qian
@Matt McIrvin: Yep, I get it now.
YY_Sima Qian
@NotoriousJRT: So sorry to hear that! I keep telling everyone around me that getting infected the 1st time is just the start of the marathon. Plenty of people in China think they are now invincible. But the vulnerable people are aware of the reinfection risks, & are still taking all precautions. At least masking rates indoors & outdoors in China remain very high.
Matt McIrvin
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks. We’ve all had the bivalent booster of course, but it was way back in the fall and our levels of antibodies against initial infection are/were probably close to nil. We’re figuring that infection is nigh-inevitable for all of us and hoping that the longer-term immune effects of all our shots will keep it mild.
And I personally will beg for Paxlovid if I get it (I don’t think they’re giving it out to otherwise healthy teenagers).
Another Scott
Branswell at STATNews:
She’s right that it’s essential to do an “audit” to know what worked and what didn’t. And she’s right to point out that it’s a tactic of the do – nothing and make – it – worse – so – we’ll – gain – power folks that we need to recognize and fight.
Dan Davies’ One Minute MBA has lots of great lessons that keep one from making bone-headed mistakes:
Cheers,
Scott.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Scott: The audit needs to have the right goals, though. The conventional wisdom is that the big failure was that we overreacted, and we need to do less next time! That’s the “audit” that’s happening.
Another Scott
@Matt McIrvin: I’m sure that many want to spin it that way, but rational people would not see that 1.11M deaths from the disease in the US since the start is a minor event or that we somehow over-reacted.
Things I would want to know:
We could learn a lot from our response to COVID-19 and be better prepared for the next one…
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Scott: Those are all really good questions!
The PPE situation seemed to me like it was the victim of active, malicious sabotage by the Trump administration, who were, at the very least, trying to funnel PPE from states they didn’t like to states they liked. But there are probably lessons to be learned apart from “don’t actively try to murder your political opponents with the plague”.
Brachiator
Good article in Nature summarizing what we know about Long Covid.
Matt McIrvin
@Brachiator: What makes questions like “does vaccination/paxlovid/whatever protect against long COVID?” so frustrating is that it seems as if literally hundreds of biologically different phenomena are being lumped together. I’d suspect that the answer would vary hugely across mechanisms of trouble.
Fair Economist
Influenza Summary for week ending Jan. 7, 2023;
Summary: Influenza down substantially but still at epidemic rates. Respiratory mortality, already above pre-COVID peaks, continuing to rise.
Flu lab positivity down from 15% to 8%. Visits for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) down from 5.4% to 4.0%. Flu hospitalizations down from 18,954 to 12,409. Respiratory mortality up from 12.8% to 13.1%.
Flu types are overwhelmingly Flu A (98.7%) with H3N2 being the large majoriy of those (71.6%. After missing on H3N2 last year, the flu vaccine has hit the mark this year with almost all virues tested immunologically close to vaccine strains. Yay! Also, all flu viruses tested this year have been susceptible to all flu treatment drugs, so yay there too.
Most areas are now seeing declines in ILI with 17 down to “low”. 23 are still at “high” or “very high.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm