This is part 3 of looking back at our fundraising and GOTV efforts in 2022. Next up?
Nevada
A bit of background.
Although Nevada voted blue in the last four presidential elections, it’s definitely not a state we can take for granted. Nevada was one of only seven states in 2020 where Trump actually improved on his results from 2016. So Nevada is on the watch list for the foreseeable future. In Nevada, a higher proportion of our fundraising went to candidates than it usually does, but we were fighting against election deniers for the state races, fighting to keep the senate seat Democratic, and supported Susie Lee to keep a key House seat.
So what did we do for Nevada?
Four Directions is very active in Nevada. Native Americans make up over 5% of the population in Nevada. To put that in perspective, Biden won Nevada in 2020 by only 2.4%. We’ll get some turnout numbers from Four Directions when we meet with them, hopefully next month.
$25,170 + $50,000 match = $75,170
Four Directions Flash Funding, on election day – when the second most populous County in Nevada, Washoe (Reno), was hit with a snowstorm that threatened to derail Four Directions’ boots on the ground efforts – leadership scrambled to obtain winter clothing, transportation and lodging for volunteers, initially paying for it with their own credit cards. We were able to cover those expenses for them with our flash fundraising before the end of the day!
$8,074
CANDIDATES:
Candidate: Cisco Aguilar for Secretary of State: Cisco Aguilar, who was running against a Trump acolyte who threatened to dispute the election results if Trump lost in Nevada in 2024. Aguilar won.
$8,418 ($5,000 of which was flash-fundraising effort after it appeared Aguilar was lagging in polling and fundraising.)
Candidate: Aaron Ford for Attorney General, who (happily) demolished his insane opponent after she said Ford, who is African American, should be “hanging by a crane” over his support for COVID restrictions. Not sure of the word for dog whistle x10, but that’s the word we need here.
$2,862
Candidate: Steve Sisolak for incumbent Governor, who lost to Joe Lombardo. You may recall that Trump threatened to withdraw his Lombardo endorsement after Lombardo declined to call him a “great” president in the gubernatorial debate.
$2,862
Candidate: Catherine Masto-Cortez for Senate: We mostly stayed out of the U.S. Senate contests (except for the Georgia run-off!) because these races were not lacking in financing; therefore our contributions were unlikely to make much of a difference. But incumbent Nevada Senator Catherine Masto-Cortez was in trouble, and was getting pummeled with late money from Republicans who saw her as vulnerable. In a state as small as Nevada, every dollar counts. Balloon Juice Flash Fundraising to the rescue.
$5,963
House Candidate: Susan Lee, a vulnerable incumbent Democratic Congresswoman in Nevada. All three Democratic incumbents were in tight races, but we targeted Susan Lee on the advice of a Nevada politics insider, who considered Susan Lee the most vulnerable and the most under-funded of the three. She won.
$4,223
House Candidate Mercedes Krause, a first-time opponent of a popular incumbent. We knew there was a good chance that she wouldn’t win, but we supported Mercedes with eyes wide open. She is Native and she had overwhelming support in the Native community, so even if she didn’t win, her candidacy was going to be key to Native turnout. This was also an investment in a talented (relatively) young person and she is going places in the Democratic party in Nevada.
$4,034
Statehouse: 1 candidates in the NV House, as part of in our down-ballot races on super-swing districts. More on the results here in a future post.
$921
What do we have to show for our effort in Nevada?
Our efforts helped turn out the vote, helped extend the reach of Four Directions into Nevada, an investment that paid off in November, and that should pay off again in 2024. And we kept a whole lot of folks warm and dry as they walked through the snow to get out the vote on election day.
The success of our flash-fundraising to meet the immediate emergency on the ground in Reno was a “proof of concept” of the power of the Balloon-Juice community.
All three of Nevada’s Democratic incumbents and its Democratic Senator won hard-fought races, leaving the state with no Republican Senators and only one Republican Congressman. Rabid election deniers were defeated in the Secretary of State and Attorney General races.
Closing thoughts?
I think we played our hand well in Nevada, and we won what absolutely needed to be won, but we didn’t run the table.
The new (Republican) Governor will be held in check by substantial Democratic majorities in the state House and Senate. We helped Four Directions get more people registered to vote, more Native voices to be heard, and positioned the Native population to have even more influence in 2024.
Not to mention that Nevada certainly hasn’t heard the last of Mercedes Krause!
Great job, everyone!
Open thread.
mvr
In the last line, you mean “Nevada” right?
Thanks for all the work!
Mousebumples
I posted this downstairs, but a quick reminder here before I run off to a work meeting –
WaterGirl is putting up a postcards/music post tonight a little before 8pm eastern/7pm central. I’ll be writing for Patricia Lawton for Pennsylvania State Senate (local news coverage), with #PostcardsToVoters – but certainly other postcarding groups may be doing different campaigns.
Hope to see you there! 😊 (and Election Day is January 31 – so if there is interest, maybe we should ask for a Election Results thread that night?)
pacem appellant
s/Arizona/Nevada/g
WaterGirl
@mvr: @pacem appellant: Good catch. Fixed!
schrodingers_cat
Are you raising money for the Wisconsin Supreme court seat too?
Politico link
Lacuna Synecdoche
Watergirl @ Top:
I have to say, I have no clue, no understanding, no comprehension of anyone who looked at and lived through 4 years of the Trump Error and said to themselves, “Yeah, I want me 4 more years of that.”
Just flabbergasting.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat: We will be, yes. For the general, for sure.
WaterGirl
@Lacuna Synecdoche: It does boggle the mind.
WaterGirl
@schrodingers_cat: I clicked your link just now without knowing what the article was – I first saw that article yesterday and left it open in my browser so I could get back to it. Good reminder for me to get back to that.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Lacuna Synecdoche:
Believe it or not, the very religious (especially Catholics & Mormons) weren’t excited about Trump in 2016. His multiple divorces and affairs plus lack of real religiosity made them very uncomfortable with him. They only voted for him because of Pence. However, he did keep his promises to that community: anti-trans stuff, the Supreme Court nominees, etc. They now see him as a deeply flawed man who none-the-less is an intrument of God’s will. I know.. its disturbing.. but that’s why.
Almost Retired
Nevada is an interesting state. Democrats are clearly in control at the moment, but it seems precarious. It could backslide. The margins are so close that the efforts of organizations like Four Directions are especially impactful.
pacem appellant
Masto-Cortez had me WORRIED! She just isn’t the strongest campaigner. BJ fundraiser was where I went to donate to her campaign. It’s too bad about Sisolak. As NV is next door, I’ll keep a weather eye on Carson City and hope Lombardo doesn’t do too much damage. My RWNJ father lives in Reno. One of my greatest delights this last decade is watching his hopes dashed one after another on everything from state gun control to EVs and NV Senator.
H.E.Wolf
“It’s doggèd as does it” – a really old saying that fits the Balloon Juice (and Four Directions) game plans. Hard work and lots of it.
When it pays off in the same election cycle, that’s exciting! When it doesn’t, as with rising star Mercedes Krause, it still lays the foundation for future success… and that’s satisfying too.
Postcards To Voters has a similar outlook: they support not just Democratic shoo-ins, but long-shot Democratic candidates, sometimes in deep-red districts, because that lets Democrats in those districts (candidates, and voters!) know that they’re not forgotten, and helps to boost turnout for future elections.
Playing the long game is worth it. Thank you to WaterGirl, our sponsored organizations and candidates, and all the jackals who played a valorous round of the game in Nevada in 2022!
Geminid
@Lacuna Synecdoche: I have no idea if it was a factor, but Nevada has the most population turnover of any state. It could be that Nevadans did not change their minds, but rather that there was an influx of Trump voters from California and other states..
pacem appellant
@Geminid: Parts of Nevada are attractive to retirees from California. My RWNJ parents moved to Washoe county so that they wouldn’t have to pay CA income tax in their retirement.
Liberal Californians move to Vegas and Reno as well if they’ve been priced out of urban real estate in LA or the Bay Area.
Kind of a mixed bag of immigration from what I’ve seen. Demographers must have a field day with Nevada.
WaterGirl
@Geminid: That’s a smart take. Of course, when there’s that much turnover, that doesn’t help with planning for the next cycle.
Barbara
@Geminid: I also think the pandemic upheaval was especially brutal for Nevada, which relies a lot more on the hospitality industry than nearly any other state. I think that there may have been voters protesting against the party that they perceived to be responsible for social controls that hurt travel and hospitality, even though most people would have foresworn travel no matter what in the early days of the pandemic.
narya
There was talk of being able to get the printer to use the pet calendar photos for postcards (which could be sent to voters); is that also being held up by the supply-chain issues causing calendar delays? Will it be A Thing later on?
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Observers of Nevada politics have remarked on how population turnover makes party building tougher. I wonder if organizations like the ones you work so hard to promote can change that dynamic. Maybe they can take advantage of new information and communications methods to organize newcomers on a granular basis. Out of staters might be able to help them.
eclare
@Barbara: I have heard pandemic restrictions were what doomed NV’s Democratic governor. The piece said that at one point Las Vegas had 30% unemployment, which is understandable but awful. It’s hard to comprehend.
RaflW
@WaterGirl: I know John said no fundrasing in January, but the WI primary is first-two-past-the-post “nonpartisan”.
If one of the two Dems (and I’m a donor to Team Janet) doesn’t get to the general election ballot in April, Wisconsin will be pre-screwed on/after February 21st since two Republicans with decent name recognition are in the 4 way race.
mvr
@RaflW: I’m planning to donate to this, and have upped my WisDems monthly donations in anticipation of this race. I’d be happy to do it through Balloon Juice, though I’ll do it regardless. When is the primary?
WaterGirl
@Geminid:
Of course, the Native population probably doesn’t change much, so I’m sure we’ll be working with Four Directions again in Nevada.
We are in contact with Unite Here and Worker Power (who were in AZ and GA) and will be asking them about NV. I think there are other union-based organizations in Nevada, but I imagine they have contacts. We plan to look into that going forward.
RaflW
@mvr: Wisconsin primary is February 21st.
In addition to direct donations to Janet Protasiewicz (a solid Wisconsin surname, but one can also see why most outreach is “Team Janet” or “Janet for WI”), and WisDems, we in the Rafl household are also supporting a somewhat off the wall SuperPAC.
Minocqua Brewing has been on a quixotic quest to promote liberals. They brew Biden Beer (“inoffensive and not bitter”), ‘la (“a strong vice presidential stout”), Tammy Shandy, AOC*IPA, and other clever (and friends report, tasty!) beers. And their super pac can do advertising, like billboards in liberal cities trying to boost Feb. 21st turnout.
WaterGirl
@narya: Yes, we can definitely do the postcards.
WaterGirl
@RaflW: Yeah, I’m planning to reach out to Voces and to Wis*Dems – for guidance on whether organizations are staying of the primaries, by which I mean staying out of promoting one Democratic candidate over another.
But surely they will be doing GOTV to help make sure that at least one of the top Dems, if not both, make it to the general. I will report back once I have information.
If anyone has a connection to Wis*Dems, contact information to a human would be most helpful.
Mousebumples
@RaflW: I expect 1 conservative and 1 liberal each to advance for the Wisconsin judicial primary. I’m thinking Daniel Kelly will probably get most of the conservative support (former state Supreme Court member – nominated by Scott Walker, lost election to a full term) – but I’m not conservative, so I might be misreading that.
I also haven’t decided who I’m supporting in the primary. That’s On My List.
I could see the value in writing postcards supporting either liberal candidate for February – but I’m not sure who’s likely to receive more votes statewide, of the 2.
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl: Last I saw on Ben Wikler’s Twitter – WisDems was staying out of the primary and supporting whoever advances to the April election. I’ll try to check on later tonight and report back.
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl:
RaflW
@Mousebumples: Of course the state Dem Party should not pick a candidate in an open primary. But I hope to FSM that they are pumping the February turnout model.
I watched in horror* as the Menomonee Falls school board primary last year advanced mostly bible-thumping “Moms on a mission” while leaving qualified incumbents who didn’t want to censor library books in the dust.
Open, ‘nonpartisan’ primaries are dangerous
*We were mostly in MN. My partner’s mom, a retired Falls educator, worked her butt off trying to avert catastrophe, along with several friends. It was a lonely struggle. And my partner even worked his former journalism contacts to try to interest the Journal Sentinel.
schrodingers_cat
@Lacuna Synecdoche: Nevada’s Democratic party was taken over by the Democratic Socialists that could have been a factor too. Their symbol was a guillotine IIRC,
mvr
@RaflW:
Thanks for that info!
mvr
@Mousebumples: This looks scary as two right wingers could win if the overall turnout is close between left and right and the votes get split within the wings.
Is there any polling?
I live in Nebraska so I’m a bit out of the loop on local news for Wisconsin.
narya
@RaflW: I can report that their beers ARE good! but the ‘la unfortunately went seriously off, in the can (i.e., no bottle involved), which I’ve never experienced before.
@WaterGirl: yay–I will order some!! And then send them to voters, I promise!
Omnes Omnibus
@mvr: The two liberals could advance. Just as likely.
RaflW
@Omnes Omnibus: Given the 48,223 split ticket Evers-Johnson voters, maybe not equally likely.
mvr
@Omnes Omnibus: true. But the positive difference between two and one is not as large as the negative difference between one and zero. And in any case, a primary for a race where the runoff is also not opposite a bunch of other races is likely to draw few voters, and D voters are less good at coming out for those. So fear of the bad possibility outweighs my positivity about not having to donate if two liberals face one another.
Alice
@Geminid: Yes. In my Carson City neighborhood, 4-5 retiree couples moved in between 2016 and 2022 in order to escape California’s assault on freedom and morality.