It’s been a very long short week already, so just a brief(er) update tonight.
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
A few hours ago, I held a regular meeting of the Staff. New members of the meeting were involved. In particular, Acting Minister of Internal Affairs, Head of the National Police of Ukraine Ihor Klymenko. He is in control of everything that depends on the Ministry of Internal Affairs system in terms of our defense and security.
The heads of some regional military administrations also took part in the meeting of the Staff today to report on the implementation of the law on national resistance. These are the Volyn, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Odesa regional military administrations.
I think the reason for such geography is clear. Every element of our defense, including territorial defense, must be properly organized.
Of course, the Commander-in-Chief and the commander of the hottest operational direction at the front – Khortytsia – reported to the Staff.
We are taking appropriate steps to strengthen our units in the battle for Donbas.
By the way, today I would like to celebrate the successes of the border guards of the Luhansk and Kramatorsk detachments, who, together with other warriors of the defense and security forces, are fighting in the Donetsk direction, defending Bakhmut. Thank you, guys, for your resilience and ability to inflict such losses on the enemy that gradually make the occupiers’ attacks meaningless!
I also thank the warriors of the Dozor special unit of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine for effectively deterring the enemy!
Now the key task of our state, all of us and our partners is to increase the feeling of the terrorist state every day that they will not be able to achieve anything in Ukraine. No matter how much time they spend on the war. No matter how much effort they expend and how many of their people the Kremlin’s masters throw on the battlefield.
The fulfillment of this task consists of various elements, both defense and political. But one of the most important elements is tanks. Modern Western tanks, on the supply of which we are negotiating with our partners.
And I thank all those who have already made the relevant decisions. I thank Mr. Charles Michel, President of the European Council, who was in Kyiv today and who very clearly calls on Europe to make a decision on tanks.
And the relevant coalition of partners has actually already been formed, and now we are waiting for a decision from one European capital that will activate the prepared chains of cooperation on tanks.
I believe that the strength of German leadership will remain unchanged.
Today, speaking in the Verkhovna Rada, Charles Michel once again made it absolutely clear that there are no alternatives to the common future of Ukraine and the European Union.
“Without an independent and secure Ukraine, there can be no independent and secure Europe. Without a free Ukraine, there can be no free Europe. We have a common future”. This is what Mr. President of the European Council said, and this can be the motto of our relations and our integration processes this year.
We are preparing the next Ukraine-EU Summit, which is scheduled for early February. We are also preparing for the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union – there are all the prerequisites for these negotiations to start this year.
Today I met with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi. We have an important agreement, and it is already being implemented: IAEA missions will be sent to our nuclear power plants. To all of them. This will significantly increase the safety of our nuclear generation. We also discussed the situation around Zaporizhzhia NPP and steps that can restore radiation safety to all humanity, which was violated by Russia.
I had a conversation with the President of the United Arab Emirates. I noted the level of cooperation achieved and thanked for the support in the UN. I informed Mr. President about the opportunities that will be opened by the implementation of our Peace Formula and the components of the formula that we can implement together. And I am grateful for the support of these efforts of Ukraine.
And today we have several powerful decisions by our partners to strengthen our defense. First of all, in strengthening our artillery.
I am grateful to Estonia for another and the largest package of military aid from this country. For howitzers and ammunition.
I am grateful to Sweden for the new military package. For NLAW, Archers and IFVs.
I am grateful to Denmark for adopting the decision on CAESARs for our warriors. This will significantly strengthen our army.
I am grateful to Lithuania for the new military package. For anti-aircraft systems, ammunition and helicopters.
And we are preparing for tomorrow’s Ramstein – we expect powerful decisions. We expect a powerful military support package from the United States.
Thank you to everyone who defends freedom with us!
Glory to all our warriors who show resilience and give Ukraine the results it needs!
Glory to everyone who works for the victory!
And my congratulations to all those who celebrate the Epiphany, the Baptism of the Lord today.
May the power of our faith speed up the purification of our land from Russian evil.
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kremenna and Bkahmut:
KREMINNA AXIS /1930 UTC 19 JAN/ RU forces, likely from the 4th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, have advanced in the forested area to the W of Kreminna. Presently, a salient extends from the western suburbs to a point 4 Km NW of Dibrova. RU probe at Terny defeated. pic.twitter.com/Grmt5EWgGc
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 19, 2023
BAKHMUT/ 1300 UTC 19 JAN/ RU continues a series of platoon and company sized probes along the line of contact. On 18 JAN, UKR air defense downed a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter and a RU ‘Merlin’ recon UAV. UKR missiles strike RU Electronic Warfare site, troop assemblies & HQ. pic.twitter.com/KA4SxFgWJC
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 19, 2023
Soledar:
Update from Soledar/Bakhmut, 19 January: all successes the Russians are having are only on Telegram and TikTok – Kiyanyn. pic.twitter.com/llRBu5d6bT
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 19, 2023
The BBC has details on the battle for Soledar: (emphasis mine)
Ukrainian forces have acknowledged “stepping back” from the bitterly contested Donbas town of Soledar, captured by Russian forces last week in their first significant victory after many months in retreat. But soldiers have told the BBC they’ve pulled back in a controlled and tactical move before a planned counter-attack.
Long bursts of automatic gunfire rattled across the grey, stubbled fields on the front line between Soledar and the neighbouring town of Bakhmut, during an intense gun and artillery battle.
“It’s quite close. One kilometre,” said a tall Ukrainian unit commander named Andriy, peering around the corner of a ruined cottage and towards a dark line of trees to the east.
It was impossible to be sure what was happening. But the sound of automatic gunfire, zinging overhead, in addition to the constant boom of rockets and artillery, suggested that Russian infantry were close. A press officer for the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who was accompanying us on a visit to the area, said the front lines were constantly shifting, unpredictably, sometimes by several kilometres a day.
“We have a tough situation here,” Andriy acknowledged, before slipping into a well-disguised command bunker hidden amid the ruins. His team had just received detailed information about a Russian armoured personnel carrier (APC), spotted by a Ukrainian drone. Moments later, there were three loud outgoing blasts from a nearby UK-supplied light artillery piece, used here by Ukrainian forces, and aimed at the vehicle.
“Every day we destroy 50 or 100 enemy people,” Andriy claimed.
The fighting in and around Soledar has been some of the heaviest of the war, with Russian forces – spearheaded by the mercenaries and convicts of the Kremlin’s Wagner group – reportedly suffering heavy losses but finally succeeding in taking control of the small hill-top town, now a wasteland of flattened buildings and rubble.
Privately, some Ukrainian soldiers have blamed poor co-ordination between different units for the loss of Soledar and have acknowledged that Russia may now be better placed to encircle the far bigger and strategically more important neighbouring town of Bakhmut, to the south.
But the mood among front line units in villages like Paraskoviivka, now just a few hundred metres from Russian positions, appears to be quietly confident. Furious Ukrainian air and artillery bombardments appear to be blocking Russian attempts to move forward both from the north and from the south-western outskirts of Bakhmut.
“It’s a controlled situation. I believe in my commander. Sometimes it’s really better to take a step back… then after that to make a [counter] attack and crush the enemy. Each day we’re destroying enemy positions,” said Andriy.
More at the link!
Poland calls Germany’s bluff:
Poland’s @MorawieckiM has had enough of German procrastination with permitting the supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. “Permission is a secondary matter. We will either get it quickly or do what we see fit.” The security of all of Europe depends on it, he adds. pic.twitter.com/sI0PUtFGKJ
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) January 19, 2023
Oy vey!
It’d be funny if weren’t so grim. https://t.co/ZOyAWhIEyD
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 19, 2023
We welcome the decision of 🇬🇧 to transfer the Challenger 2.And we appeal to 🇬🇷🇩🇰🇪🇸🇨🇦🇳🇱🇩🇪🇳🇴🇵🇱🇵🇹🇹🇷🇫🇮🇸🇪 the states that have Leopard 2 in service-it’s time to join to an int. tank coalition in support of 🇺🇦!
We need them to win&restore peace in Europe.More⬇️ https://t.co/7hiXWDCzjw— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) January 19, 2023
These videos the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense put out are brilliant information operations:
Western nations wax philosophical about what is and is not a “tank.” And so do we, bien sûr. pic.twitter.com/GxOvi7jYRs
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 19, 2023
Estonia ups the ante:
The government decided today to send #Estonia's biggest aid package of heavy weapons so far to #Ukraine.
This takes our total military aid to Ukraine over 1% of our GDP.
The package includes howitzers, grenade launchers and ammunition – what Ukraine has asked us for. 1/
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) January 19, 2023
#Russia also has huge manpower and will continue to mobilise hundreds of thousands.
It has also increased the workload and capacity of its war industry. 3/
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) January 19, 2023
Russian aggression has a price to all of us – a price we pay in euros but Ukraine pays in human lives.
That price would be much-much higher for the whole world if aggression paid off.
More information about Estonia’s military aid package: https://t.co/xRAMDK4b8r 5/
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) January 19, 2023
As does Sweden:
Although the precise number of Archers to be sent hasn’t been announced, they will be sourced from the 24 that Norway ordered and then cancelled in 2013. They’ve been collecting dust in a warehouse for the past decade.
— Hugo Kaaman (@HKaaman) January 19, 2023
Denmark:
Wow, Denmark is transferring all of its Caesar artillery pieces to #Ukraine https://t.co/VrS63ArlaD
— Tony Osborne (@Rotorfocus) January 19, 2023
I'm deeply grateful to my good colleague Mette Frederiksen @Statsmin & 🇩🇰 coalition government for an important decision to provide CAESAR howitzers to 🇺🇦. It will greatly increase 🇺🇦 defense capabilities, allow us to oust the aggressor from 🇺🇦 & bring our common victory closer.
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) January 19, 2023
Tanks and APCs/IFVs will be critical for Kyiv to retake the rest of its territory, but they may not be enough. Kyiv needs to have superior combined arms capability to breakthrough prepared defensive positions. Hopefully, this change in thinking will extend to other capabilities.
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) January 19, 2023
There is little reason to believe there are prospects for negotiations as long as the Kremlin believes the military situation favors it, which it clearly does right now. Strengthening Ukrainian military capabilities (equipment and training) is the best option for ending this war.
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) January 19, 2023
Great Britain:
FIRE & BRIMSTONE: Britain announces it will send 600 Brimstone missiles to Ukraine. The Brimstone can be fired from from aircraft or ground units, and is capable ‘swarming' targets by varying angles of attack and arrival times to overwhelm point defenses. pic.twitter.com/FmodRpRmXF
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 19, 2023
Boizhe Moi!
I swear, this is textbook stuff for classic Soviet army jokes
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 19, 2023
Your daily Patron!
Yesterday I just had no words to write something.
I knew personally almost everyone who was in that helicopter. From the pilots to Mr. Minister. I didn’t know the child who was also a victim of this tragedy. But it doesn't matter. May they all rest in peace. pic.twitter.com/joXGYpoXAz— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 19, 2023
There is no new video tonight at Patron’s official TikTok.
Open thread!
trollhattan
Thank you, Adam.
Plopping the SAM on the MOD roof seems like a tell WRT their concerns of Ukraine not limiting themselves to dropping missiles on occupied Ukraine territory.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1616100175298138114?cxt=HHwWhMC84YCjxe0sAAAA
If only there were a way to shed that fear and sleep soundly, again.
ETA, the mockery has already begun.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1616157894252036135
Gin & Tonic
Perhaps minor semantic point in that Trofimov Tweet: I don’t think Minister Morawiecky is saying “we will do what we see fit,” he is saying “we will do what is necessary.” His “tak jak trzeba” means, IMO, “as is needed.” So it’s not a question of the PL government doing what it wants, it’s a question of it doing what needs to be done. A different slant.
dr. luba
I’ve been amazed by the sudden outpouring of arms aid to Ukraine today…..US, Britain, Poland, Denmark, Sweden, etc. It’s dominating my Twitter feed. Wonderful.
Except of course the GQP. Apparently the crazy right/Boebert wants to audit Ukraine or something.
Bill Arnold
@trollhattan:
Somebody could have some fun with that Pantsir using a cheap civilian drone or three fitted with some improvised chaff dispensers. Or similar. Would not want to get caught, though.
There’s video from the fall (September 2022?) of a Pantsir misfire incident.
Mike in NC
@dr. luba: Apparently Boebert’s greasy spoon of a restaurant was never audited, because she no longer has it.
Bill Arnold
@trollhattan:
The only figure I’ve found for the mass of that Pantsir vehicle is 14,850 kg. Would be amusing if the roof collapsed after a week or a month.
dr. luba
@Mike in NC: The Mexicans have replaced her! Well, a Mexican restaurant.
dr. luba
Up to 11 countries pledging more arms today, apparently!
sdhays
@Bill Arnold: I had the same thought, but it’s possible a military building like that was built with extra reinforcement in the case of war.
Or not. After all, it’s Russia.
dmsilev
@Bill Arnold: There might well be a helipad on the roof with suitable structural reinforcement. Though yes, the thought of a SAM battery crashing through the roof and then several floors below is quite amusing to contemplate.
The Moar You Know
Pretty clear now that Germany’s government is compromised.
Roger Moore
@sdhays:
If nothing else, I would expect the roof to be built to withstand the extra weight from a heavy snowfall, which is probably more than a SAM launcher. If that roof were going to collapse from the weight, they probably would have figured it out by now.
Jay
Jay
Gin & Tonic
@The Moar You Know: “Now”??
Jay
Grumpy Old Railroader
Just one of several possible explanations. Imma gonna wait until after the Ramstein Summit so I can bitch and moan about facts
Jay
Omnes Omnibus
@The Moar You Know:
I think the best explanation of the German’s situation was put forth by Hangö Kex last night.
Ksmiami
Biden needs to speak to all of us and clearly describe the fight for democratic values and that we will send everything Ukraine needs to be victorious. Like now. I wish Americans weren’t so susceptible to gop /tankie propaganda but here we are
sanjeevs
@Omnes Omnibus: If that’s the case (Germany’s Leopards are in poor condition) why would they object to Poland sending theirs?
japa21
@Ksmiami: He’s already done that.
Omnes Omnibus
@sanjeevs: Not to be shown up by the Poles?
lashonharangue
@sanjeevs: Because it would likely cause people asking if Poland can send theirs why won’t Germany.
Jay
davecb
The US could offer its allies Abrams and a contract for spares and more machines, if Germany was threatening to cut the allies off for shipping their Leopards to Ukraine.
It would also benefit the US industry and disadvantage the German.
Jay
Aussie Sheila
@Ksmiami: I disagree that Americans are peculiarly susceptible to tankie propaganda. They are a regrettable excrescence sure, but I worry more about real Russian subversion in European capitals than I do about a few terrible idiots on line in the US.
I am confident the Biden administration is firm in its commitments. Other governments in Europe-not so much.
Bill Arnold
Spicy speculative piece in The Hill about a possible blocked assassination attempt on V. Putin.
Circling Valkyries over the Kremlin (JONATHAN SWEET AND MARK TOTH, OPINION CONTRIBUTORS – 01/19/23)
One wonders how Mr. Putin has been managing his paranoia since ordering the re-invasion of Ukraine.
Parfigliano
Ukraine is killing Russians on our dime. Not our soldiers. Our dimes. Funny how certain GOPers dont like that.
Ksmiami
@japa21: repeat it. FDR wasn’t one and done… and Americans have the memory of tsietze flies
Sister Golden Bear
@Jay: I assume the effort to use a Giant Military Cat failed because import controls meant that they no longer have the necessary working parts for the enormous laser pointer needed.
Jay
Another Scott
I think I finally found NEIVANMADE’s store. It doesn’t have the calendar/sticker box shown in a tweet a few days ago yet, but has lots and lots of other stuff (and things from some other artists).
HelpUkraine.Threadless.com
They have hoodies that go from S to 5XL – something for everyone! :-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
What a great day. Thanks for the great update, Adam.
Jay
Shalimar
Russia says they are at war with the U.S. and NATO. Ukraine is an ally of the U.S. at this point. The trickle of weapons that allows Ukraine to fight longer and gets more Ukrainis killed is better than nothing, but I seriously doubt Russia would do more than whine if the United States sent 3 divisions to train near Kyiv.
NATO has a massive advantage over Russia at this point. It is frustrating that the actual status quo in Ukraine keeps shifting back to Russia because of their population advantage among just those 2 countries.
Ohio Mom
I just realized that Alison Rose is not here. She is always on this thread. Maybe it’s been a few days?
I hope she is all right.
Jay
Jay
@Ohio Mom:
She is taking a break, might come back.
Chetan Murthy
@Shalimar: As with all things that put NATO soldiers in harm’s way, the question will be: “what happens if RU attacks those soldiers?” Until you can game out exactly what happens and are confident that it won’t end in a nuclear escalation, it’s too dangerous to do it. B/c the other 7.x Billion humans would like to keep living. I hate it, too, but it is what it is.
Shalimar
@Chetan Murthy: It is a line we are going to cross at some point if you don’t want to see a completely devastated Ukraine occupied by Russian soldiers five years from now. What happens when Russia has no chance of winning left?
Sending in soldiers now for “training” makes the timeline clear and moves it up: we will be active participants in a decisive Spring offensive if they don’t withdraw.
Jay
Jay
@Shalimar:
NATO has rules and regs, so that sane people don’t see NATO as a “threat”. That limits what support can be given to Ukraine.
There is no “one weird trick”.
Adam L Silverman
@Ohio Mom: She’s fine. She’s taking a break, bit of self care, and I expect her back when she’s ready. I’m in contact with her.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: You’re welcome.
Andrya
@Bill Arnold: My take is that putin has made himself extremely hard to assassinate. People have to quarantine if they are going to get anywhere near him, and usually he sits 30 feet away. I am sure that everyone allowed into his presence is rigorously searched- probably by more than one person. Quite possibly even x-rayed. The man is paranoid. And, of course, his bodyguards go with him everywhere.
The only feasible way that I see to assassinate putin is to storm where he’s living (palace or dacha) with maybe 1000 soldiers. But there would be two problems:
a. putin has a lot of available residences. I bet he moves around a lot.
b. If 1000 people know about the operation, it’s going to leak.
The Valkyrie plot in July 1944 had one advantage that a 2023 plot against putin would not have. The Valkyrie plotters were complicit in profound evil- aggressive war and the Holocaust- but they did have one genuine moral commitment: they cared about Germany. Thus, after the successful Normandy landings made it clear that Germany must reach an accommodation with the Allies, or perish, and Hitler vowed to fight to the bitter end, the plotters saw that Hitler must go to save Germany. Since they had a common moral commitment, they could trust each other. (And, in fact, no one did betray the plot ahead of time.) Given the level of corruption in the russian army, I doubt that any high ranking officer trusts any other high ranking officer.
dr. luba
@Another Scott: I messaged him on Twitter about the calendar. They’re not available yet, and he guesses Back Alive will announce it when they actually are.
Q: Чи можна десь купити цих календарів?
A: Гадаю, “Повернись живим” оголосять, як буде у продажі)
frosty
@Adam L Silverman: Good to hear that. She always had good comments. Plus she’s a One L Alison, like my late sister-in-law. We traded a couple of amusing comments about it.
Shalimar
@Jay: NATO won’t do anything. NATO is a large collection of nations with only defensive armies, plus the United States. If there is going to be decisive action, it will be by the U.S.
My very non-expert opinion is that the chance of a nuclear exchange is higher now than it would be if the United States sent a combat force to Ukraine. A part of Russia’s posturing is that the U.S. is weak and unwilling to respond to escalation. Having a force nearby ready to respond moots that belief.
I am not saying this is the obvious correct path. Russia has enough nukes to destroy us all. There are no good paths. What I am saying is the current “let all the Ukrainis die for us and maybe nothing bad will happen afterwards” strategy doesn’t decrease the nuclear threat in the slightest. Ignoring the problem won’t make it go away.
Shalimar
@Andrya: It sounds like Putin is almost impossible to assassinate … by anyone other than a member of the bodyguard.
Jay
@Shalimar:
NATO is defensive, that’s it’s purpose.
The US isn’t going to send troops to Ukraine until after Ukraine liberates Ukraine.
We are no closer to nuclear war than in 2011 when Russia threatened nuclear war if NordStream II wasn’t approved.
Am I the only one with a history of irrational, threatening ex-girlfriends?,……….
Jay
@Shalimar:
it sounds like Putin is living in an information bubble as well,…..
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Glad to know that she is okay,….. thank you Adam. It’s been mentioned a few times the past couple of days.
Jay
Andrya
@Shalimar: Good point. However, I’m pessimistic about the idea of a bodyguard assassination plot:
a. I bet the bodyguards search each other, in a large group, when they come on duty. Thus, a large group of bodyguards would have to be in on the plot, and not betray it.
b. The urge to assassinate putin would come from either one of two groups: high level army officers who are angry about the serious damage to the russian army, and oligarchs who are angry that they can’t access their flats in Paris/yachts/foreign bank accounts. Unless putin’s bodyguards had patriotism or morals (unlikely) they would be unlikely to risk their undoubtedly privileged positions for the good of their country.
Thanks for your comments!
And, Adam, as always, thanks for doing this. And if you are in touch with Alison Rose, would you consider telling her that a lot of us miss her- including some (like me!) that she has, on occasion, strongly disagreed with?
YY_Sima Qian
@Shalimar: Threat of nuclear exchange is much higher when the nuclear powers are actively very shooting at each other. There is a reason the US & the USSR tried to avoid active hostilities (post-Cuban Missile Crisis) despite proxy wars where thousands of Americans were being killed in Vietnam by Soviet made weapons & thousands of Soviets were being killed by American made or facilitated weapons in Afghanistan.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/russias-invasion-ukraine-war-nuclear-weapon-nato/672727/
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: There isn’t much to disagree with in that article, but it’s about posture, and about the proper context for interpreting Russian nuclear bluster. It doesn’t speak at all to @YY_Sima Qian‘s point, which is that the risk of something really bad happening would be exponentially greater if US and Russian military forces were fighting each other directly, rather than through proxies. Which is absolutely correct.
Kent
I don’t really get all this hand-wringing about Abrams vs Leopard tanks.
I mean if it is just for show and to light a fire under the Germans, just send a company of Abrams tanks to the Moldovian border or up to guard some spot on the Belarussian border and send some company of Ukrainians to the US to train on them. Meanwhile you send all the Euro Leopards to the Donbass to do your serious fighting on that front. Ukraine is a very big country.
And then you have a reserve unit ready to go if the axis of the war shifts from the Donbass to another invasion from Belarus or into Ukraine from the west via Transnistria. A company of Abrams has to be better than a few dozen militia out there with Javelins and rifles which is all they had in February to shut down some of those Russian incursions.
What good are they doing gathering dust in some army depot in Texas or New Mexico?
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
yup, which is why both NATO, the US and NATO members won’t send troops to Ukraine.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Do you know what is the state of Ukrainian arms industry? I assume the persistent Russian attacks against the civilian power generation infrastructure in Ukraine is extremely disruptive.
If the NATO standard munitions for NATO grade weapons (coming or proposed) are only coming from existing NATO stocks, & NATO countries are not yet increasing their munitions production to war time footing, then I am concerned that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be disadvantaged in positional & attrition warfare. Ukraine seems to have able to keep up in terms of the number of soldiers mobilized & trained, but munitions & equipment could be problematic over the longer term. Russia can draw from vast stores of Cold War stock, even if they are expired dumb ordinances. Ukraine will have to keep up very favorable exchange ratios.
Jay
@Kent:
All Ukraine is a “no go” Country for NATO and the US, right now.
It will take 3 month’s + to train up Ukrainian experienced tankers on Leopards, Abrams or Challengers, plus the logistics train.
There is no “one weird trick”.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I’ve read that many of the CEE countries have spun back up their Soviet-era arms factories to manufacture Soviet-compatible shells, specifically for Ukraine.
Kent
@Shalimar: There is zero reason to send US troops to fight in Ukraine. Not when we can send them NATO weapons.
For example, it looks like Ukraine has some pretty damn ballsy chopper pilots with tens of thousands of hours of flying time. How long would it seriously take to get them qualified on Apaches and Cobras?
And how long would it take their top fixed wing aces to get qualified on F-16s?
There is a LOT more we can do before we deploy US troops to Ukraine.
Chetan Murthy
@Kent: I’m just a dog on the Internet, but I think almost certainly part of what’s preventing the US from just sending a few M1 tanks along, is that that would just move Germany to the next excuse. At this point, it’s all ridiculous — and specifically if Germany is using these arguments to avoid giving *permission* for other countries to send Leopards — and for the US to go along with it, is to just legitimize the ridiculousness.
After that …. well, if the US does send Abrams tanks, it can’t very well set up all the logistics tail, right? So Germany can use that as an excuse. And without that tail, those tanks are pretty much useless. They’ll break down, and then be helpless.
Kent
@Jay: I’m not saying send a US tank company to Ukraine. I’m saying send 15 Abrams to park in some backwater front where Ukrainians can start messing around with them and training on them for some point in the future. Not one US solder has to enter Ukraine. Send them the tanks to park as a reserve and then start rotating Ukrainian crews to the US to learn to use them.
I mean if we are just doing this to give a fig leaf to the Germans, do it is a smart way so that in 6 months or a year when the war has progressed to some new stage we have units of Ukrainians ready to go if we do decide to send them meaningful amounts of Abrams to use in front-line combat.
Kent
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah, I guess so. It sounds like the Poles have had enough with Germany anyway and are just saying fuck you, try to stop us. Which will more likely cause the Germans just to go along to save what little face they have left.
Kent
@YY_Sima Qian:
What would it take to just pack up some 155mm NATO artillery shell factory lock stock and barrel and ship the whole thing to Ukraine? That is what the Soviets did in WW2. They packed up hundreds of factories and just shipped them across the Urals to Siberia to reassemble them. I don’t know how complicated it is to manufacturer artillery shells. But it isn’t like manufacturing F-16s or Abrams tanks. I would imagine it is just a bunch of metal fabrication machines and presses that Ukrainians could be quickly trained up to operate.
Then you can just send them the raw materials like the brass and explosives which has to be easier than already manufactured shells.
Chetan Murthy
@Kent: This seems relevant. Hertling is a tanker. In the replies, people ask him questions, and he answers. People point him at (General) Ben Hodges who has said “the Ukrainians will figure it out”, and Hertling’s riposte is “Ben’s a great guy, but not a tanker — he’s a light infantryman”. Hertling is very adamant that if you don’t have the logistical and maintenance tail, you can’t operate this tank.
Chetan Murthy
@Kent:
That would be almost-certainly worse than operating that factory in some EU country and shipping the shells. B/c in Ukraine, it would be vulnerable to attack by Russia. And its supply train would be equally vulnerable.
Carlo Graziani
@Kent: The reports of German expectation that the US should also supply MBTs—Abrams, which is what the US has— were attributed by news stories to unnamed “German officials”, rather than to Scholtz, or to any responsible minister.
To me the story has the feel of German FO civil servants placing a strategic news story to shape and constrain the environment for Pistorius, the new defense minister, in order to preserve policy to which they are attached, and which they fear they are about to lose control over.
But if that interpretation is correct, those officials appear to have miscalculated badly. They embarrassed both Pistorius and Scholtz days before a critical allied conference on weapons supply to Ukraine. At this point, there is no face-saving way for the German government to move forward other than taking the re-export clamps off, and allowing allies to furnish Leopard IIs from their own inventory, possibly even coughing up a few of their own.
From a strictly military point of view, the very suggestion of sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine is idiotic. The US Army and USMC are just about the only organizations that can fight those overengineered monsters in a large-scale war, because unlike every other military service in the world, they can operate in the infinite-resource approximation. An Abrams donation to Ukraine now would be a liability, not an asset.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I have read that too. Not sure what is their capacity. At best the effort gets Ukraine to near par w/ Russia. The most impactful weapons in Ukrainian arsenal are NATO spec. (Or maybe my impression is wrong & result of bias in Western media & analysis toward systems they have provided.)
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
From subtext, it is clear that Hertling is of this opinion, too.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I think there are three different streams of munitions:
(1) Soviet-compat shells for Soviet-compat tubes, tanks, IFVs, etc
(2) NATO-compat shells for NATO-compat tubes, tanks, IFVs etc
(3) NATO-specific smart weapons of various types
#1 is useful until UA no longer has those Soviet-compat tubes/tanks/BMPs. #2/#3 are useful going forward, and esp. as they get NATO tanks/IFVs. But as long as they have Soviet-compat tanks/IFVs, a stream of Soviet-compat shells will be useful — because there will be a use for old T-72s/BMPs for a long time. I think that’s why some of those CEE countries spun back up their factories.
ETA: Obvs. the NATO-specific smart weapons (Excalibur, HIMARS, etc) are all really effective. But you still need tube artillery, and sometimes Soviet-era tubes are enough. When that’s the case, why use M777 tubes ? Which means that having 152mm shells is useful. Ditto with T-72s vs Challengers/Leopards (when they show up). But esp. until they show up, having 125mm (IIRC) shells is gonna be mandatory.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: I won’t pretend that I’m not basically regurgitating Hertling. Reading his comment threads is how I learned to think about modern weapons systems, and about the support that they require to be useful in war.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: It’s not just Hertling. Kos has been banging on this for months now. Hell, before HIMARS showed up, he was yammering about how he fuckin’ hoped we wouldn’t be sending M270 launchers, b/c he had to run a company with those, and boy they were down a lot for repair. He was really bitching about how awful those launchers were compared to the newer versions. In the end we sent both kinds, which is OK I guess.
Chetan Murthy
@Kent: I thought about a different way of approaching (thinking about) the German demand: there must be some number of Bradley IFVs, that would be sufficient for Germany to agree that the US has “skin the game”. I wonder what that number is, and what that says about Germany. My suspicion is that it’s several hundred, and that that would tell us that Germany simply doesn’t want to say “yes”.
I guess we’ll see what happens tomorrow.
Another Scott
@Carlo Graziani: Dunno.
As I mentioned in the thread last night, several other countries have versions of the M1A. Egypt has/had an Abrams factory and made 1000 or so of them. KSA, Kuwait, Iraq, Australia (and maybe more) use it. The design is 30+ years old. This isn’t some super-tech that Ukraine is incapable of using.
Yes, supply and logistics are an issue. Time and money will fix that. We need to get moving.
I assume that Ukraine will get tanks soon, but they will need to be sustained. Unless VVP falls out a window, there’s still a slog ahead.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Ksmiami
Dead thread but after this, I’m done with the endless support of Israel. Seriously.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: A couple of days ago, I read a fascinating article about the Armata tank and its engine. Per the article, the T-72 and T-90 both use variants of the same basic engine design, that has been very, very, very well-debugged. The T-14, by contrast, uses a diesel design that is pretty new, and really hasn’t been debugged. So it fails a *lot*. And the maintenance techs don’t know it well, which makes things worse. And that’s all diesel engines, not gas turbines. Apparently the T-80 gas turbine has had problems in the field, both reliability (from wikipedia: “Though both Nizhni-Tagil’s T-90 and Omsk’s T-80U had their merits, the T-80 was notorious for its high fuel use and poor engine reliability”).
Regarding Egypt manufacturing Abrams, I think what Kos might say is that sure, they’ve been doing since 1992, which means that they’ve developed a cadre of engineers who know how to maintain and debug the tank and its components. But when you bring that to a new country, where the mechanics have neve worked with it, it’ll take *time* to train people up on it. I forget how long Kos said it takes, but a quick Google search says 16wk, and that’s to become a basic maintainer (I’d guess it assumes there’ll be more-senior noncoms supervising the work). None of that would be available in Ukraine. I think that one of the things you might be thinking is “if Egypt can do it, surely Ukraine can do it!” and sure, that’s somewhat true, but again, it’s a matter of time and experience, time and training.
You can’t cut the time in half by doubling the # of people, or amount of money, right?
BTW, these issues are *also* problematic for Leopards and Challengers, I suspect. But at least, they’re all diesel engines, not turbines. And there’s a ton of expertise across the border in the CEE countries (we will, I’m sure, ensure that people are made available).
Again, it takes time to ramp people up, and a lot more time for novel technologies. That’s why Hertling says “yeah, get back to me after you’ve fixed a turbine pack.”
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Steam #1 is definitely useful, no argument. However, Ukraine needs to reach a point of being clearly advantageous over Russia, at least w/in Ukraine, to be able to defeat the invasion & end the war on favorable terms. Steam 1 won’t get there alone. Streams 2 & 3 need to be increased dramatically, & my concern is NATO countries are not yet planning for it, beyond drawing down existing stocks, which are limited because NATO had thought the era of big land wars agains peer level opponents has ended. NATO countries can probably send enough equipment to UKraine, but munitions?
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: I suspect that all over NATO, governments are engaging to replenish their stocks of near-first-rank munitions. I remember reading that Raytheon got orders for stingers and had to figure out how to fabricate the control units, b/c the chips for the original stingers are no longer available. I think I remember new NLAWs contracts being put out in the UK. I know I’ve read about both dumb shells and Excalibur shells — new contracts for both. All that’s happening. Not fast enough, but it’s happening.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: KSA & Kuwait have nearly unlimited funds, & KSA Army is not well regarded for its maintenance & upkeep of the high end equipment they have bought. Egypt’s defense budget is subsidized by the Gulf States. None of them are interested in helping Ukraine.
Carlo Graziani
@Another Scott: It’s not super-tech. It’s super-expensive-to-run-let-alone-maintain tech.
I have my doubts about whether Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc. would make effective use of theirs in a large-scale war, but at least they’ve had years to get to know them and, er, love them, and they can at least afford them. Although I doubt very much that Saudi tankers are enthusiastic about cleaning sand from jet intake filters every few hours.
Upgunning Ukraine in the middle of a shooting war without disrupting their fighting capacity has been and continues to be a difficult challenge requiring some delicate balancing. Nobody choosing from NATO tank inventories, cognizant of the training and supply challenges that attend each choice, could regard Abrams as competitive with the Leopard IIs for this purpose. Certainly supplying more than one tank type complicates sustainment even more, and supplying Abrams now is like postponing operational use of new tanks to the summer, and restraining their range of operation to the capacity of the UA to pipe jet fuel in astounding quantities to the front. The US thinks nothing of flinging money down the crapper that way, but all other countries have to make choices about how they spend their next defense unit-of-exchange.
The Leopards are just a better value proposition, by a very large factor. Austin can’t come out and say such things publically for political reasons, but everyone can read the subtext.
Hangö Kex
@YY_Sima Qian:
I have little doubt that the economic and industrial might of the West in comparison to that of Russia is decisive here. Or, actually, it will be if brought to fully bear. Of which, unfortunately, I haven’t seen much evidence yet (?); even the substantial US stocks won’t last forever.
Chetan Murthy
@Hangö Kex: https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/12/05/army-plans-dramatic-ammo-production-boost-as-ukraine-drains-stocks/
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy:
Hangö Kex
@Chetan Murthy: Thanks. :) I’d hope to see similar news from other NATO (and otherwise allied) countries; I seem recall reading that Ukraine is currently going trough thousands of artillery shells / day (and that is just one thing they need :\ ).
Hangö Kex
Also glad to hear (read) about Alison. :)
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I am concerned that NATO countries are not yet on war footing in terms of their munitions production, because Ukraine is consuming at war footing & they are the latter’s only supply for NATO spec ordnances. Even the US’ ramp of 155 mm artillery shells are over a 3 year period. By that time the war is probably over, & the need no longer there.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: @Hangö Kex: I’ve read that for dumb artillery and other shells, the US is buying from all around the world. Including (ha!) Pakistan, India, other places. And all our allies are doing the same thing: I remember reading that South Korea is getting busy, for instance. And all over Europe it’s happening. So a way to put it is: sure the US can’t meet UA’s shell hunger. But we’re not alone: a bunch of countries are all contributing shells, and between us all, we’ll be able to meet it, and ramp up production to keep up. That doesn’t answer for smarter munitions, but …. those are newer and hence have greater production bottlenecks — can’t do anything about that, really, other than work to produce more. But when Excalibur shells cost $100k each, you can’t exactly produce many thousands of ’em.
Geminid
I saw a report that Mr. Hudson of the Washington Post got a “scoop” on a secret trip to Ukraine last week by CIA Director Burns. Burns is reported to have given President Zelenskyy an estimate of Russian military plans for the spring. Reportedly, Mr. Zelenskyy and others pressed Burns on what impact the new Republican House majority might have on US Ukrainian policy.