Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) made his anticipated Senate campaign official this morning (WaPo), announcing his intention to take on Kyrsten Sinema and whichever hard-right hairball the AZ GOP horks up for 2024:
Gallego, a Marine veteran who has served in the House since 2015, announced his candidacy in a video in English and Spanish that stressed his military service and experience growing up as a first-generation American.
“The rich and the powerful, they don’t need more advocates,” Gallego said in the video, which shows him addressing veterans at Guadalupe American Legion Post 124. “It’s the people that are still trying to decide between groceries and utilities that need a fighter for them.”
Gallego also took direct aim at Sinema in a statement, saying she “abandoned Arizona” and has “repeatedly broken her promises, and fought for the interests of big pharma and Wall Street at our expense.”
Here’s a link to the campaign video Gallego shared on Twitter a while ago. It’s pretty good, IMO, emphasizing Gallego’s hardscrabble roots. He promises he’ll be an advocate for ordinary Arizonans instead of showing up in Davos to curtsey at the rich and powerful in an Abominable Snowman-inspired sweater vest. (Okay, I made that last part up.)
I’ll leave it to people who understand AZ politics to speculate on his chances, but one crucial question is whether Sinema will run for reelection. My guess is she switched party affiliation because she can read polls and realized running again as a Democrat would result in an embarrassing primary loss. Switching early ended speculation about that, and perhaps she believes it improves her chances of landing a lucrative post-Senate career as, well, I’m not sure what since lobbying requires good relationships on the Hill.
No Labels spokesbot? Fox News commentator? A former fat cat donor’s pet corporate Board member? All three? I don’t really give a rat’s ass about Sinema’s next act as long as we keep the seat she currently occupies away from the Rs. From what I understand, AZ is so closely divided that Democratic voters need to be completely unified to win, so hopefully Sinema won’t play spoiler. Maybe the AZ Repubs will help us out by recycling a loon like soft-focus hologram Kari Lake or creepy lone gunman viber Blake Masters.
Open thread.
Baud
I will donate to a GoFundMe to raise money for her nongovernmental sinecure.
Suzanne
I think we have hashed this topic to death, but I will just remind everyone that Arizona is heavily LDS, and this makes their politics a bit different than other places.
Gallego is fantastic, IMO, but there have been plenty of other fantastic candidates who have lost there. Even in this last cycle, there were Republicans like Kimberly Yee who were not suffering from Long MAGA who won their races. The dynamic of the race will be deeply affected by the GOP candidate, and if they are from the Chaotic Evil wing of the party or the Neutral Evil wing.
SiubhanDuinne
Soon as I saw this, I knew it was a Betty Cracker post.
Princess
Good. I like him, and I think he will be good for Dems for the Latino/a vote across the board
schrodingers_cat
2 questions
How is what Sinema doing different from the St. Bernard the infallible
Can Gallego win the general election?
Princess
@schrodingers_cat: The difference is that Bernie is extremely popular in Vermont and Sinema is as popular as headlice in Arizona. You can do what you like if people will vote for you. This should be obvious.
mrmoshpotato
@Suzanne: Early morning reply to you
Kay
He’s a big supporter of public education. Excellent news that he’s running.
We need more public education supporters at the federal level- obviously state and local matters more for education but Republicans have a national anti-public ed movement so we need a pro.
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodingers_cat:
Remind which major legislation Sanders killed, watered down, or delayed during the past two years. I am not, and never have been, a Sandersite, and I know what he did in 2016.
Geminid
@Princess: Adrian Fontes, another Hispanic Democrat, won the Arizona Secretary of State election last year. Like Ruben Gallego, Fontes is a Marine Corps veteran.
I’ve read that while Arizona’s Latino voters are catching up to their Anglo counterparts in election participation, there is still ground to be made up. The visible representation that Mr. Fontes gives plus a young, dynamic candidate like Gallego may help Latino Democrats close that gap.
Betty Cracker
@Suzanne: Glad you weighed in with local knowledge! From where I sit three-quarters of a continent away, it looks like AZ GOP is completely captured by the Chaotic Evil wing, but maybe the people who want to actually win will prevail next time. Seems like former Gov. Ducey would be a worst-case scenario for us.
Baud
Had KS acted half-way decent, we would have probably had no choice but to hold our nose and support her in 2024 because the Senate map is really bad. But she made herself unelectable so we have no choice but to try to find a real Dem who can win AZ.
Starfish
@schrodingers_cat: Sinema is pissing off voters in her own state. Sanders didn’t do that.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m not a Sanders fan, and I agree. The big problem with Sanders is that he has a large following. No one follows Sinema, except maybe Manchin.
Different people, different problems.
Suzanne
Sinema is not comparable to Sanders and it’s frankly asinine to equate them. Sinema is firmly and nakedly self-interested and she built her coalition by peeling off voters who sometimes vote for Republicans (lots of Mormon mom types). As much as we hate her, there is a contingent of people who love her, as crazy as I might find that.
As for whether or not Gallego can win…. this is a dumb question without understanding who is opponent is. Is he qualified? Certainly. Does he have a compelling biography? For sure. He’s historically been fairly lefty and the Dems that usually win statewide in Arizona are usually more moderate.
Arizona just very clearly rejected MAGA candidates in 2022. But some more “standard” Republicans just won. If the GOP gets over their Kelli Ward wing, I think they can be formidable.
Geminid
@Betty Cracker: Arizona Republicans seem divided almost 50-50 over which way their party should go. At least, Kari Lake’s primary victory over her more establishment opponent was razor thin.
It could be that because Katie Hobbs was the clear frontrunner on the Democratic side, more Independents voted in the Republican primary (I’m assuming that is an option but I am not certain of this).
There definitely is a tug of war going on in the Arizona Republican party between a more pragmatic wing lead by ex-Governor Doug Ducey and the radicals led by state chairman Kelli Ward. It looks like Kari lake will be the champion for the radicals; I wonder if Doug Ducey will step into the ring for his side.
Suzanne
@Betty Cracker:
Kelli Ward is the most prominent representative of the crazy, and her influence is strongly felt in the state GOP. She ran against John McCain in 2016 and she got her ass beat, but that made the fissure very obvious. She really shit the bed this year. A lot depends on whether or not they can get past it.
This is really the year for a Jeff Flake type.
schrodingers_cat
While she has been a huge pain in the neck for Ds on issues like filibuster Sinema has been instrumental in passing some key pieces of legislation in the Senate. Where she emulated Sanders was not in ideological terms but running as a D in the election and then declaring oneself independent.
Yes she is unpopular among politically involved Democrats but what about normies and the electorate at large. The worst case scenario would be to lose this seat instead of having an annoying independent who caucuses with the Ds
Self anointed progressives have had trouble winning statewide elections in purple states like Wisconsin.
Geminid
Speaking of Senators, Politico Playbook tells me that Vice President Harris will swear in Pete Ricketts to take Ben Sasse’s place in the Senate, at 3:30 this afternoon.
syphonblue
Sinema is 100% going to cost the Dems the AZ Senate Seat.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat: I agree that losing the seat is the worst case scenario, but Sinema has made that likely rather than not likely. Last I heard, she was unpopular with just about every group, and it looks like she won’t just retire but will run as an independent in a three-way race.
Who know if Gallego is the best choice in the Dem primary though? It depends on who else runs.
Geminid
@schrodingers_cat: Polling shows that Ms. Sinema’s unpopularity extends to almost every group of Arizonans. She really hasn’t built up any kind of a loyal following, even among the Independents who comprise about a third of that state’s electorate.
Frankensteinbeck
@schrodingers_cat:
Look, I think Sanders is a shit, and even I don’t think there is any parallel between Sinema and Sanders. Sanders is in a safe seat. Democrats in Vermont love him and don’t seem to mind his Independent schtick. He is exactly what he says he is in policy terms, and not a wolf in sheep’s clothing who waited to get elected to change affiliation. He’s a self-absorbed, delusional, adolescent boy Marxist who never matured, with all the misogyny and racism issues that implies, but he’s not trying to sink pro-minority legislation. He’s pretty solidly helpful on advancing liberal legislation of all kinds, and shits that bed only rarely. Not a bad senator over all. Nobody is ever worried he’s going to caucus with McConnell. He’s definitely not a shill to big business.
In messaging terms, Sanders is a fucking disaster who has done untold damage by convincing young idealists that the Democrats stole their birthright. I loathe him.
But Sinema, he ain’t.
Also, the guy isn’t exactly popular here, so there’s no need to talk like he is. Just very few commenters hate him as passionately as you do.
kindness
I really think if it’s a 3 way race in AZ, Sinema will siphon off more Republican votes than Democratic ones. She’s pretty much burned all her bridges with us. I seriously doubt any Greens will vote for her at this point.
Suzanne
Sinema has always represented a devil’s bargain. The politically involved people in Arizona have known it and put up with it for years. Arizona has long had a GOP registration advantage, and they still do. So any Democratic victory has been about peeling off just enough of them (again, lots of Mormon mom types who aren’t immigration firebreathers). Kyrsten Sinema has proven that she can do that, and that fact has made Arizona Democrats get behind her because the only plausible alternative thus far has been losing.
Gallego being a strong Democrat is not a huge strategic advantage in a place where Dems don’t have a registration advantage.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: I want Ds to retain that seat. I don’t care much for Sinema and Gallego is just a name to me right now.
Mousebumples
@schrodingers_cat: Tammy Baldwin is very progressive and easily won reelection in 2018. Mandela Barnes lost (IMO) less because he was liberal and more because of the racist ads run by Friends of Ron Johnson (*or whatever that PAC was actually called).
She is also up for reelection in 2024. Here’s rooting for injuries in the GOP primary next year.
Geminid
@Baud: Representative Greg Stanton has been mentioned as a possible contender but he took himself out of the race last week, and it looks like Gallego will be the nominee.
My guess is that Sinema will not run, but I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on that proposition. I think we’ll know by September.
Baud
@Suzanne: She probably could have been a Senator for life if she had just acted a little less douchey. I guess she doesn’t have Feinstein’s dedication.
Baud
@Geminid: Thanks. If he is to be the nominee, I suppose it’s better that he become the nominee without a bitterly contested primary.
ian
@syphonblue: The election is 20 months away. We don’t have enough data to make that kind of prediction, certainly not with that accuracy.
UncleEbeneezer
opiejeanne
@Geminid: I forgot that Sasse was stepping down to be President of U of Florida, and thought for a second that something dire had happened to him.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat: If he can win, I think Gallego will be an improvement because it’s hard not to be. I would have been happy telling people to suck it up and vote for Sinema if she had just played her cards differently. I don’t think that’s a realistic option at this point.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I wonder if somebody went through that video carefully and timed how many of its 200-odd second feature images of Gallego as a Marine and a veteran. I still wouldn’t underestimate the effect that has with the dread Normies. My recollection is lots of those early Buttigieg supporters cited his military service as a reason for choosing him. Also, he’s a member of the Progressive Caucus, but that’s a broad group, and Gallego doesn’t strike me as one of those who’s going to chase votes on twitter at the expense of his actual constituents.
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodingers_cat: I think that it is a given that everyone here wants Dems to retain that seat.
Suzanne
@Baud:
This is absolutely right.
Of course, I think Jeff Flake would have held his seat for years if MAGA hadn’t happened. A normal polite GOP tax-cutting asshole is still a popular type there.
jnfr
Obviously I’d prefer Gallego (or most anyone, but Gallego is good) to Sinema. I hope this doesn’t break the votes in two and get us an R, but I guess we’ll see.
Eolirin
@Suzanne: It sounds to me that our only real shot at holding on to things in AZ depends on the fracturing of the Republican party so that candidates from one faction are unacceptable to the other, while we maintain our new found level of unity across our various factions.
That means a lot of the outcome is going to be out of our hands, and will depend on what the Rs do to themselves.
VOR
I agree with the man from Vermont on a lot of issues but think he would have made a horrible President. Not a fanboy. With that out of the way, there is a world of difference between BS and KS. He is serious about the issues. He works with the Democratic party.
She’s engaged in a game of chicken. She know she would lose a primary, but a run as an independent would split the non-Republican vote and allow the MAGA candidate to win. So she is forcing the Democrats to choose between supporting her or risking Senator Kari Lake.
Either that or she is gearing up for a second career as a Foxbot or lobbyist.
geg6
@schrodingers_cat:
From what I’ve read online, her favorable numbers have dropped to nearly non-existent in AZ. Show me where Sanders’ numbers have dropped in VT. Oh, you can’t. Because they haven’t.
FWIW in arguing with you on this subject, I don’t see where Bernie has tanked any significant Dem legislation the way Sinema has. Nor has he taunted and disrespected everyone and anyone who ever voted for or supported him who isn’t a pharma exec or a Wall Streeter or Joe Manchin (as if any of those people would ever support Bernie).
I am not a Bernie supporter and never have been, but to equate him with Sinema is pretty low.
Suzanne
@opiejeanne: Bad timing for Sasse, I think. I predict that MAGA fever will break in the next couple of years and the GOP will revert to type, type being plutocrat-rimming. That would be perfect for Sasse.
We’ll see, I guess.
Eolirin
@VOR: I don’t think that’s a given, most polling shows her pulling evenly from Democrats and Republicans. She could put Gallego over the top just as easily as the R challenger.
Suzanne
@Eolirin:
100% right.
And I say this as someone who really likes Gallego and would be thrilled to vote for him.
But he’s just one guy, and holding the seat is honestly more important than the nuances of the career of the seat-holder.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
All she had to do was draft some anodyne bill– a press release, really– that called for a $12/hr minimum wage. Susan Collins probably would have slapped her name on it and McConnell wouldn’t have let it go anywhere. But she wanted that thumbs-down photo-op because John McCain Mavericky Independent Purple Monkey Dishwasher. Then she did this. A forty-plus YO United States Senator wanted people to see that picture. She’s not even good at her own schtick.
Geminid
@opiejeanne: Nah, Sasse didn’t fall off a ladder like the unfortunate Representative Steube. He only has to worry about falling into the humongous swimming pool the University of Florida is providing along with his house.
Spanky
@mrmoshpotato: Oh crap! Thanks for that. I crashed about 90 seconds after I posted my question.
opiejeanne
@Suzanne: When I was a kid, there was a family at church whose last name was Sasse and they pronounced it “sassy”. I can’t help but hear that in my head when I see his name written down.
I’m not sure his appointment to preside over U of F will last very long, considering the little tin-pot dictator who hired him.
schrodingers_cat
@Frankensteinbeck:
I don’t hate him, I think him and his ideology of populist purity is a political disaster for the Democrats and against the interests of the diverse base of the Democratic party. It cost us 2016. Nothing Sinema has done is comparable. YMMV.
BJers may have forgotten but I haven’t.
Before he became the left wing messiah running for President he was a fixture on Lou Dobbs ranting and raving against immigrants. He was a guaranteed vote against almost any immigration relief like Sessions and Grassley for most of his Congressional career (he has moderated his stance somewhat since he ran for President)
Geminid
@VOR: I think Sinema can’t play chicken with the Arizona Democratic Party. They will run a strong candidate no matter what she does.
Ken
Definitely, unless of course Baud needs to use it as a stepping-stone for the Baud! 20XX!! presidential campaign.
Brachiator
I missed something. Did Sinema switch to the Republican Party?
opiejeanne
@Brachiator: She declared herself an Independent.
Eolirin
@Suzanne: On the plus side, I think our chances are as good as they’ve ever been, with abortion and climate change and maybe even guns becoming wedge issues on the right instead of the left. Especially when large swaths of them are culturally allergic to compromise and the more extremist parts are starting to weaponize conspiracy theories against other parts of the coalition for their personal gain instead of it just targeting us.
And we’ve become unified in a way that I don’t think I’ve ever seen before. I hope we can hold that together.
Frankensteinbeck
@UncleEbeneezer:
A tempest in a tea pot. “Okay, there’s nothing there, BUT WHAT IF THERE WAS???” is the press’s favorite kink, and they’re having nonstop orgasms with this. It’s still a 15 minute wonder, and despite all the breathless insistence that this isn’t too inside baseball for regular Americans… yeah, it is. Unlike Hillary, nobody is scrambling for an excuse to justify their instinctive That Woman hate for Biden. Normies don’t share the press’s fetish for Both Sides.
Soon enough, the Republican House will do something insane, incompetent, disgusting, hilariously pathetic, and LOUD, and Biden’s documents will disappear down the memory hole.
The Moar You Know
@Suzanne: I note that every commenter saying Gallego can win this is not from Arizona.
I’m listening to what you’re telling me.
Paul in KY
@kindness: Will depend on the ‘quality’ of the Repub nominee.
UncleEbeneezer
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Had Sinema simply went along with a filibuster carve-out for Voting Rights, I wouldn’t despise her nearly as much as I do now.
Suzanne
@Eolirin: Agreed.
I just think it’s important to be clear-eyed about challenges. I am anti-fantastical optimism. Arizona would still be electing John McCain if they could, you know? That state has Gallego and Grijalva, they also have Gosar and Biggs.
Frankensteinbeck
@opiejeanne:
With a “The woke mob in the Democratic Party drove me away” screed that had people seriously wondering if she would caucus Republican.
Betty Cracker
@Geminid: I’ve been wondering ever since I read about Sasse’s new pool how it’s possible to spend $300K on a pool. That seems like a lot! I mean, maybe a lazy river-style pool, waterfall pool or wave pool at a water park would cost that much. But a backyard pool? It’s a disgrace. Never thought I’d say this, but I’m glad my kid didn’t choose my alma mater.
Ken
@Frankensteinbeck: Unless the insane, incompetent, et cetera thing is impeaching Biden for the documents. But I think an impeachment would require more organization than the House Republicans currently have, or possibly will ever have.
Gin & Tonic
File under “totally unsurprising” but a former NY FBI Field Office agent has been arrested on money laundering charges associated with Oleg Deripaska.
That field office needs to be closed down and everybody associated with it fired.
ETA: Waiting for the NY equivalent to Black Mass.
Eolirin
@Suzanne: For sure.
Suzanne
@The Moar You Know:
I want to be clear that I think Gallego could potentially win. But I do think that there are factors at work outside of Dem control that will be decisive.
I just object to the framing that, if Gallego (or someone else) could just run the perfect race, we’ll win. We could run the perfect race with the perfect candidate and still lose. That is the challenge of running in places where there are still more Republicans than Democrats.
piratedan
speaking from the cheap seats in Tucson (which is NOT where the power in the state resides) I really don’t see Sinema running. Speaking pragmatically, she knows that she’s burned her bridges, so why subject herself to any public denunciation at the polls, so just take the money and run and then let the media smooth over any “rough edges”, they’ll love her and treasure her as she’s always desired.
Gallego announcing now, put down a marker and by doing so now, am unsure if he’s going to draw any competition from the left.
On the right…… I wouldn’t be shocked to see Lake run again (after all, that last election was stolen and she’ll get Gallego to debate her, no doubt). I also would not be shocked to see Doug Doucy run (the recent Governor, who was more or less stealth MAGA, all the shitty policies, none of the grandstanding) and there’s a bunch of other potential asshats that could run (for example, each of the GOP Congresscritters, but the slickest one is a truly ambitious POS like Juan Ciscomani who was just elected).
Doucey and Ciscomani worry me the most, but AZ is a GOP war zone right now and the thought that the direction of the party is still pretty much unresolved. The MAGA’s take zero ownership of their losses because after all, the elections were rigged weren’t they?. So either the Chamber of Commerce types and the LDS land-owning conservatives make common cause and there’s not a LOT common ground on which to stand as the former want to keep rich people rich (which hurts the poors) and the latter want to hurt the poors and don’t really give a shit about the rich, they’re into the whole white christonationalist track for fear of being a minority without power in their own state.
opiejeanne
@Betty Cracker: How much??? I can’t imagine it costing that much unless it’s at the beach and needed massive engineering to keep it intact, and we’re talking Florida and not Hawai`i (where everything costs mosre).
Steeplejack
“Sinema’s next act”: I would bet on corporate board member (plural) and public face of some plutocratic PAC. Board seats are very lucrative, I think, far more than being a guest commentator on Fox. And I can’t see her buckling down to be a regular show host (if they’d have her). Too much like real work.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
I don’t think we’ve forgotten since many of us still don’t like him. But he’s less relevant these days IMHO, and his relevance will probably continue to decline.
Eolirin
@Baud: Yeah, moving on isn’t the same as forgetting.
Brachiator
@opiejeanne:
So, does Arizona have open primaries, or would she have to pick one of the two main parties?
Who does she expect to give her support?
Or would she exit politics altogether?
Steeplejack
Hey, don’t knock her fuzzy vest! That’s an heirloom she picked up at the Sonny Bono estate sale.
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
Yeah, bring back the mob and get rid of the NY field office. We’d be better off.
trollhattan
My money’s on AZ Republicans nominating Toadzilla.
Kay
@Gin & Tonic:
NY really, really needs to start enforcing some laws. Jesus Christ. It’s run by the Russian mob. It’s a basket case for governance at this point. Ohio is more competent and cleaner.
Brachiator
@Suzanne:
Thanks for your insights. I’m in California, but have no idea how AZ politics works.
Kay
@Steeplejack:
It’s bitchy but I feel like it’s fair game since part of her bullshit, wholly created persona is “I’m an ATHLETE! LOOK AT ME” – her arms aren’t even al that toned. She’s no Michelle Obama :)
Maybe some sleeves, lady.
opiejeanne
@Brachiator: Suzanne is the expert about those things.
Suzanne
@piratedan:
I completely agree with your take.
There’s also the libertarian gun nut contingent and where they land is not yet clear.
If Evan McMullin was an Arizonan, I think that could be the type to successfully unite the factions of the cohort.
Betty Cracker
A sheriff just stopped by to alert us that a woman went missing in the area yesterday. She has dementia and wandered off from a house a mile or so away. I hope they find her safe and sound. The swamp is a harsh environment.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: The dude was a counterintelligence agent. They have a real problem.
Kay
@Steeplejack:
She’s the female equivalent of Jim Jordan showing off his (gross) physique. These people are like reality tv show stars.
Put some clothes on – straighten up. You’re not actual celebrities.
Betty Cracker
@UncleEbeneezer: That take seems to rest on the assumption that politics never affect charging decisions, but of course we know they do. We can hope they don’t in this case, but I sure wouldn’t make that assumption.
Geminid
@Brachiator: Some key numbers for Arizona are registered Republicans, 35%, Democrats 32%, Independents 31.7%.
That was after rolls closed in October, 2020. I haven’t checked more recent totals but someone here said that Independents had retaken the lead over Democrats. When the 2020 numbers were reported some observers said that was the first time in a long time that Democratic registrations exceeded Independent.
New Deal democrat
This was *exactly* the what to do it: announce very early, quashing any idea that a path should be cleared for Sinema. Then, await polling to come out later this year, showing Sinema running a distant third. Then, using that polling, put pressure on her to drop out. Maybe the Administration could sweeten things by appointing her to a consolation prize.
The only question I have – and I don’t suppose we’ll ever know for sure – is whether this already has Biden’s blessing.
Kay
I’m vacationing in Arizona this winter which I’m happy to do since they went blue – we were going anyway because my husband wants to play tennis and Florida is too steamy and wet for me BUT I am happy to spend some money there.
We really like Los Angeles and have gone there for vaca in the winter but I wanted to try something different. My middle son, the electrician, was recruited for an LA job which pays really well, but the foreman told him “do not come if you haven’t set up housing – you cannot sleep in a van here if you’re working for me” and he has not been able to set up housing so he is not going. It’s a shame. They need to build some residences.
Brachiator
@Geminid:
In California, there may be more registered Independents than registered Republicans. But the Independents are not an organized party.
ETA: There may still be the American Independent Party here in California. But these are a tiny number of right wing cranks.
JMG
Unless polls are off base by dozens of points, Arizona Democrats have no intention of voting for Sinema. Therefore, her blackmail effort by turning independent is doomed to fail. Gallego seems a good candidate. That’s of course no guarantee of winning, or even being close, but by and large people prefer voting for a candidate they like rather than a hold-your-nose one. Anyway, there’s no point in handicapping the race until both major parties choose nominees.
JPL
@Baud: After the Hillary leaks, I thought that the DOJ was going to investigate the NY office. I guess that was just brushed aside after Comey was fired.
Suzanne
@Geminid: Here are statistics from November 2022 from AZ SOS. I think this is of the voters who voted in 2022, not of all registered voters.
Princess
@schrodingers_cat: Her polling is in the toilet with everyone, GOP, Indpendents, Dems. Stop.
There seems to be a certain type of of progressive-acting/voting candidate who is able to communicate in such a way that he (it always seems to be a he, alas) who is able to draw support from normies too. We’ll see if Gallego is such a candidate — that remains very much an open question. Fetterman, whom you endlessly dumped on, was such a candidate. I’d put Biden in the same category, frankly.
The Moar You Know
@Kay: We’re out of room. Even here in San Diego we are flat-out out of room, and the LA area has about four times the population we do. If we wanted to add serious amounts of housing in SoCal at this point, it’s going in the desert and that has some serious problems, first and foremost being that nobody really wants to live there.
Another Scott
I don’t know AZ politics, but I would watch Sen. Kelly. He seems to know how to thread the needle in the state. If he jumps in with both feet and stresses party unity and so forth, then I will assume that that’s a strong play. If he sees Gallego run his campaign as an outsider and more quietly supports him out of the limelight, then that’s good to know too.
Just win, baby – Nancy Smash
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Brachiator: I don’t think Independents are really organized anywhere. They’re a very disparate bunch.
I just remember the Arizona numbers because 2020 was a high turnout election, and it seemed like neither party left many voters on the table. So I concluded that Joe Biden and Mark Kelly could not have won without carrying a majority of Independent voters.
Suzanne
@Princess: I’m so old that I remember when she said that Fetterman had no appeal to black voters and that’s why she supported…. Conor Lamb, the super-white dude from the 96% white district….. instead of Malcolm Kenyatta, a black candidate from a really diverse district.
I’ll note that Kenyatta is more in the left-populist vein.
Steeplejack
@Kay:
She got outbid for Sonny’s full fur coat.
Barbara
@The Moar You Know: There is this thing called density. I’ve been to San Diego and Los Angeles. There is “no room” only if you are stuck in a model of housing that precludes multistory apartment buildings.
Regarding Gallegos and Sinema: I am disappointed in Sinema and I certainly take what Suzanne says about Arizona voters to heart, however, I believe that Sinema has probably made herself unelectable in the next cycle by alienating too many Democrats. So maybe the best thing Gallegos can do is start early. Also, it’s not even clear to me Sinema wants to run. I almost see her antics of late as an audition for a more lucrative position that doesn’t require the same level of work.
karen marie
@Betty Cracker: I don’t know that Ducey could win the primary.
UncleEbeneezer
For those of you still on the Book of Faces, artist Jonathan Harris and his painting titled “Critical Race Theory”
Kay
@The Moar You Know:
I love San Diego too. Just lovely. It’s fun for me because I’m a gardener and your trees and plant life are completely different than that of the midwest. I walk around babbling- “what is that thing?” Like some crazy desert tree.
I wanted him to go out there and stay so I would have an excuse to move there. He likes being a traveler at this time in his life- he’s young and single with no debt- free as a bird. Instead of So Cal he’s going to a job in Syracuse, NY.
They’re ok with them sleeping in vans in the midwest and NY. The last job he was at they made a deal with a university to use the parking lot and did a cheap health club membership for showers, but apparently not in California. Perhaps the foreman thinks it would just add to the problem.
JPL
@syphonblue: Her Davos friends will pay her to run as an independent. Let’s hope it doesn’t work.
Frankensteinbeck
@Ken:
I think it’s not a sexy enough topic for impeachment for them. They want to let their freak flag fly, and as far as self-defense is concerned, the documents thing only protects Trump – who most of the establishment GOP wish was “Trump who?” already. They have so much more insane shit to roll around in, like Fauci releasing Covid as a bioweapon to condition conservatives to slavery, or salacious and mean-spirited, petty shit like Hunter Biden’s Dick Pics, or conspiracy theories they think are proven fact but normies don’t know what the Hell they’re talking about, like Biden (supposedly) getting kickbacks from Hunter Biden for selling policy to China.
Elizabelle
From the FTF NY Times: Retired in 2018, but still … clean out that FBI NY field office rats nest:
A former top F.B.I. official was charged with money laundering. He is accused of taking payments from a Russian oligarch to investigate a rival.
Monday, January 23, 2023 11:58 AM ET
The former official, Charles McGonigal, who had been the special agent in charge of the F.B.I.’s counterintelligence division in New York before he retired in 2018, had supervised and participated in investigations of Russian oligarchs.
trollhattan
Ironic, given you need electricians to, you know, build houses.
This is what keeps people super-commuting from places like Riverside. Nobody voluntarily lives in Riverside, and yet….
karen marie
@Starfish: Also, Sanders has always been an independent. He had to technically sign as a Dem for the presidential primary but he dropped it as soon as he lost. Sinema has no basis of support as an independent and lost what lttle she had as a Dem. Her presence in the state is nil.
Elizabelle
I will take an interest in Sinema a year from now. Too early for angst.
A lot can change in a year. A lot. But in the meantime: fuck Sinema, and the sparkle pony she rode in on.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@karen marie: I don’t know much about Ducey, but I see on Wiki he was the CEO of Cold Stone Creamery, so he has done some good in the world, and he doesn’t seem to be a career politician, desperately seeking the next rung on the ladder, so maybe he’s one of those who wouldn’t want to be the most junior member of a group of one hundred politicians (mostly) obsessed with seniority and tradition, especially if you have to do battle with Kari Lake and Kelli Ward and probably Donald Trump to get there.
(Though I’d bet all the quatloos he’s had at least one meeting with someone like Rick Wilson about his changes at the White House)
Kay
@Steeplejack:
Okay, she’s just the kind of person I hate. I hate what ATTENTION HOGS these people are. It’s like we led them to believe they were fascinating entertainers or artists or something. There’s SO MANY of them on the Right. So many of them affect this weird he man dress – Rand Paul in workboots. I can’t bear it.
karen marie
@Geminid: Who was Lake’s “more establishment” opponent?
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: He has spawned clones in the Congress, who don’t write legislation except to rename post-offices, wag their fingers at the camera and are hailed as heroes.
But yeah I agree that he himself is not that relevant right now. And that’s good thing.
BenCisco 🇺🇸🎖️🖥️♦️
Never change, Betty!
Go go Gallego!
Kay
@trollhattan:
He’s industrial. He feels sorry for residential people – homeowners – ugh. He rarely speaks. He would be absolutely terrible in residential.
trollhattan
@Frankensteinbeck: I hear Trey Gowdy’s hair is available to chair any investigation committee they may have. Also, Darrell Issa managed to get his corrupt ass back in congress, and my money’s on him reprising the role.
Kay
@Steeplejack:
And she’s NOT that interesting. She’s a standard issue plutocrat ass kisser. But she has “ineresting” clothes! She likes wine! Even her persona is boring.
Sure Lurkalot
Hopeful that Davos was the destination for Sinema to find some plutocrat who buys her schtick enough to give her an exit ramp from public service. Something something tells me her heart just ain’t in it anymore. Her unpopularity appears a direct result of her increasing disingenuousness. That she’s become toxic to almost every constituency should be a good clue for her to cash in or out, both are apt.
I wish Mr. Gallego the best of luck in his pursuits, he’s got good goals and an admirable life story. Maybe he will connect with a bunch of independents.
Geminid
@Barbara: Sinema does not seem to relish retail politics and has been more aloof from her state’s voters than most Democratic politicians would be. Plus, she seems kind of lazy, at least outside her triathlete life. This and her low poll numbers makes me think that she won’t run. But it’s really hard for me to read her thinking.
She may have held on too long to the idea that Arizona was a state where only a “centrist” Democrat could win. I think Joe Biden and Mark Kelly disproved that in 2020, and Kelly disproved it again last year.
piratedan
@karen marie: I’m not sure that he even wants to run. The last AZ Gov primary with Taylor-Robson and Lake was a dirty long drawn out and expensive affair. Douchey has long avoided confrontational politics, he does all of the wink and nod stuff to let the MAGA’s know he’s in their camp, does the MAGA stuff but doesn’t make it performative theatre, so while that has appeal to conservative voters, does he really want to go toe-to-toe with some of the other loons out there?
Ciscomani was in his governing clique, so if Douchey annonces, he’ll likely sit out. Someone like Lake? or even the certifiably insane Ms. Wendy Taylor (a state Rep who is MAGA synthisized into its purest form)? Or say for example Congressperson Lesko, Biggs or Gosar.. say they want the title and a bigger chance for more fuckery…
It’s really too soon to tell.
The GOP in AZ is very much more into purity tests than introspection and fence mending and the State GOP party is a microcosm of the National one, torn between Trumpism and variations on the theme as his powerbase disintegrates (or so it appears) and whether there is a rebound of sorts of some other Chamber of Commerce or Libertarian sovereign citizens or Mormonists who just want things to be more Caucasian that tries to ride herd on the whole insane mob.
Geminid
@karen marie: I forget her name. She was endorsed and strongly supported by Governor Ducey, who has been at odds with the more radical party wing led by Kelli Ward, the state party chair.
Roger Moore
@VOR:
I feel the same way. I think his positions make him a mainstream Democrat, but I disagree wildly with him on priorities. Basically, he wants to push legislation that middle class Whites care about while back burnering legislation every other group in the party cares about. He’ll vote the right way if that legislation comes up, so he’s fine as a back bencher, but I don’t want him setting priorities.
Elizabelle
@ Betty Cracker: that said, I really appreciate a political post. We don’t have enough anymore.
Interesting story from the LATimes, published over the weekend, probably lost in the latest mass murder by gun tragedy. Story is worth a click. A lot of nuance in it, plus the usual fire breathing comments by the MAGA element within the LAPD, which needs to be culled back.
I think it’s interesting the chief did this. A police chief is a politician in uniform, and the LAPD does not look like Dragnet and Adam 12 any more. Did you notice all the Asian American police officers on the scene in Monterey Park? Young LAPD officers look like young America, to a great extent.
“Bleeding blue” does not mean white supremacy and radical right wing support, which is what that godawful flag has turned in to.
LA Times: LAPD ban of ‘thin blue line’ flags is latest salvo in culture war
UncleEbeneezer
@Betty Cracker: Your take assumes that Garland will subvert the process of justice out of fear of political fallout. We’ve seen nothing indicating that he would do that and it’s the exact opposite of his reputation (one of the major reasons he was chosen for the job). You don’t appoint Jack Smith in order to not bring charges. Jack Smith doesn’t take the job unless there’s high likelihood of bringing charges. Garland has said he will defer to Smith on charging decisions. Current activity (hiring of expert attorneys, witnesses seen coming out of GJ’s) all still moving fast in the direction of Indictment.
piratedan
@Geminid: that was Karen Taylor-Robson, I think she’s related to the Robson family that does the planned retirement communities here in AZ, or that could just be a coincidence….
Suzanne
@piratedan:
Once again: AGREE.
It is very clear that Trump himself is on the wane, whether or not his MAGA diehards can be reconstituted as a cohort apart from his personal appeal. I am not sure that they can. I am not sure that these people will remain active voters, or that another politician/platform can hold them together. DeSantis is surely trying, but he doesn’t trigger the libz in the same way.
Some of the GOP would love to be a white working class party, but I don’t think that’s really a convincing transformation….not in the numbers they need.
Gin & Tonic
@Elizabelle: Good ROI for Deripaska.
Geminid
@Sure Lurkalot: One thing Ruben Gallego has going for him (I think) is that he is a very blunt and outspoken man. I think voters will find this refreshing.
He’ll have to work on a low salt vocabulary though. Like I said, Gallego is very blunt. There was a podcast for Politico last spring that was excerpted, and I remember some. Of the January 6 Insurrection:
Of Democratic outreach to Latino voters:
The feedback loop Gallego referred to was between “progressive” campaign consultants and their Latino counterparts. I found this interesting because Gallego himself would be considered in the progressive wing of the party.
Another criticism Gallego made of outreach to Latino voters:
He point was that Latinos value good jobs and upward mobility and that this is not emphasized enough by Democratic elites.
citizen dave
@Kay: Over at Elon’s Ruth’s Chris Twit R, I’ve blocked almost all RWers foisted upon me by the new algorithm, but I’ve kept open to Rand Paul, solely so I can reply to his tweets with something about his toupee/hairpiece. Now I have work boots as an option–thanks!
Anyway
@Geminid:
He’s a sitting House Rep – one of 535 in the country. He qualifies as a “D elite”
Tim Ellis
@schrodingers_cat: Freely admitting that I’m only a Democrat because Bernie brought me into the party so I’ve got that bias for sure, but setting aside the ideological difference, in my view the big difference between Bernie and Sinema *politically* is that Bernie takes his principled stands at times when it either A) won’t impact the ultimate passage of a bill or B) when he can secure actual policy changes in exchange that advance his ideological priorities while still securing the votes.
Sinema has no problem derailing Dem bills and blowing up Dem priorities.
There are many other differences between them, but that is the salient one for this discussion imo.
Geminid
@Anyway: My words, not Ruben Gallegos’s.
Someone can be in the elite but not of it in terms of outlook. And while I think that what Gallego says is applicable to many of the upper middle class white people who run the party in my part of Virginia, the elite Gallego spoke of was the Democratic campaign professional class.
Tim Ellis
@Geminid: He’s 100% right imo, and this makes me more confident about his chances.
And I agree with you that voters find blunt, real talk refreshing in this age of focus-tested pablum, never-ending ad campaigns, and MAGA lies.
Captain C
@kindness: If the batshit wing wins the GQP primary, Sinema could definitely draw more Republicans as the (relatively) sane wing defects from whatever Kari Lake clone gets vomited up.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@New Deal democrat: If Biden appointed her to something immigration reform related, that would be smart politics. She already negotiated a bipartisan bill (even if it is on hold indefinitely). She’s from a border state. This is an issue that inspires a lot more crazed passion from the GOP base, than Dems, even if there are strong contingents in the Dem coalition pushing for more openness in immigration. It would be great if the people bashing her the loudest and eliciting her FUs were the GOP for a change. She’s also such an attention whore that the GOPs constant lies about Biden’s immigration record would finally get some pushback. Big business and the ag business want reform. The white supremacists want zero immigration. These are splits that need widening.
Tim Ellis
@Roger Moore: His policy priorities are largely identified with Millennial and Gen Z priorities more so than any racial or income bracket (he often had the most diverse voter set backing him in the 2020 primaries, but that was not a function of racial appeal, it was because he also had the *youngest* voter set and the younger generations are just a lot more diverse as a whole).
I’ve changed my mind on this – I worked hard to elect him to the presidency and would not be in politics at all without his campaigns, but knowing what I know now, I think Biden was truly the right choice in 2020. I think Bernie is very good for the role he’s in as someone who motivates and inspires different people who are outside the standard Dem caucus – and we need that growth and outreach – but I think as President he would have struggled to get things done and would have been additionally polarizing. Frankly he probably shouldn’t have run in 2020 (also I think Faiz ran a bad campaign but that’s a different issue lol).
I’ve been really impressed with Biden and have been won over; I’m fully Biden-pilled now lol
opiejeanne
@Barbara: People who have houses they like don’t seem that interested in having them torn down for density, or so that a developer can make a bundle.
This is a problem in Seattle too, and they have been buying a single property and putting a 2-5 unit building on it with no parking and little access to public transportation, in the older communities that used to be smaller suburbs but are now part of Seattle. It’s changing the character of whole neighborhoods, and being cheered on by people who do not own houses. The irony is that these units tend to sell for almost as much as the house that used to stand on the lot, so it’s not a great solution to unaffordable housing.
The Moar You Know
@Elizabelle: It never had any other meaning. it always meant one thing: cops over everyone else.
It’s a fucking desecration of the American flag and that’s the kindest thing you can say about it.
ian
@Elizabelle:
That’s strange, I always thought that was what that symbol meant
Edit: beaten to the punch of my joke once again…
Betty Cracker
@UncleEbeneezer: I don’t really have a firm take except we don’t know what’s going to happen. That includes you, me, and the podcasters who’ve turned speculation about the case into a cottage industry. I do know that prosecutors weigh the public interest in charging decisions, and that often translates into politics. I believe people who’ve pinned Garland/Smith posters up in their lockers might be ignoring that fact because it complicates the narrative, but we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
Geminid
@Tim Ellis: My gripes against Sanders relate to his actions in his Presidential campaigns. He actually wasn’t that bad in 2020; it was just a portion of his staff and of his supporters that I found and still find disappointing.
Sanders has been more or less a team player as a Senator. Schumer* and his Democratic colleagues seem to know how to handle him, as sort of a gruff old dog whose bark is worse than his bite.
* Fun Schumer-Sanders fact: they attended the same Brooklyn high school. I think former Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman did too.
opiejeanne
@trollhattan: Not true. We lived there voluntarily for 23 years and knew a lot of people who moved back there deliberately after college. We lived mostly in the downtown area, last house at the corner of 5th and Redwood, with a few years in the Wood Streets. Still miss our neighbors and friends.
The Moar You Know
@opiejeanne: I lived in one in SF for five years. I will never do so again. And this was a good building with working utilities and decent management. Most of them don’t.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@opiejeanne:
St Louis, which is super affordable, still has its debates about affordable housing when housing is torn down for condos, townhouses, or apartments. Detractors basically say what you have. I tend to disagree. The solution to unaffordable housing is more housing. When supply outstrips demand, prices come down.
Paul in KY
@Kay: I liked Tucson when I visited there. Hope y’all have a great time!
Kay
@citizen dave:
I like looking at clothes and talking about clothes but honestly a lot of these people are hoping “interesting clothes” makes them interesting or substantive or original. No. They have to come up with a real personality and ideas. No shortcuts! Sinema is identical to every other pro-plutocrat speaker at Davos- fun fur vest or not. Most people realized this in high school.
Tim Ellis
@Geminid: Yes, that’s fair enough; there’s a fair few of his 2020 supporters that I find quite annoying and a couple I find truly reprehensible (looking at you, Briahna Joy Gray!).
I know 2016 is a sore spot for long-time Dems and I don’t blame them for it. My experience is of course different because before 2016 I wasn’t a Dem at all; Bernie is the one who brought me into the coalition and into political work entirely (it’s now my full time job). So I have a different perspective on that year, but I bet if something similar happened now that I’m inside the coalition, my view might be more similar to that of other Dems.
But yes I have to hand it to Schumer, I think he’s done a good job of corralling a fractious caucus generally in the Senate, and Pelosi of course was unparalleled in keeping the caucus together in the House (a much tougher task). And also kudos to Biden; I feel like Dems are much more united than we’ve been in my entire time as a member and really more united than the party has been in my entire adult life, and I credit Biden (and Pelosi and Schumer) with a lot of that.
Trump also helped by being a total fascist shitbag of course lol
Kay
@Paul in KY:
Oh thank you. My oldest child is making fun of me because we’re going to Sedona. He wants to know if I’m getting a crystal reading. I like touristy things so I probably WILL get a crystal reading.
I’m like the only operson under 70 who goes on the LA “celebrity tour bus”- I love that! The last time I went the guide/driver was a winger and we had a little discussion about his anti-Iranian bigotry. I BEAT HIM IN OUR DEBATE, don’t worry :)
I booked a kayak trip – this wil be the first time I’ve kayaked outside the midwest. The temp wil be 65/70 which is perfect river run weather, I think.
WaterGirl
@UncleEbeneezer: That painting is powerful.
Dopey-o
@mrmoshpotato: posted some excellent advice on refinishing stairs, in reply to Suzanne’s earlier post.
Stairs are trouble. Stairs take most of their wear and deterioration on the center 40% of the treads. Refinish them with sufficient gunk, then add more. Then add more.
Water-based urethane has no noxious fumes.
I recently removed all the carpeting in my 80 year old house, but i left the carpet on the stairs. The original red oak flooring is beautiful, but my daughter traverses the stairs daily.
My brother’s fiance was overseeing the removal of carpet on her stairs, and died in December 2022 as a direct result of a fall during the process.
UncleEbeneezer
@The Moar You Know: Yup. It’s always stood for limitless power/authority and lack of oversight, for police. It’s always been a refutation of demands that the police actually prioritize serving the public. While the flag version only popped up fairly recently, the Thin Blue Line concept has been around forever and has always been problematic.
Geminid
@Tim Ellis: Regarding Democratic unity: the weekend before the midterms, political scientist-turned campaign professional Rachel Bitecofer tweeted:
piratedan
@Kay: as far as Arizona goes, if you’re spending time in the Phoenix Area, I would take time out to visit the MIM (Musical Instrument Museum) in case the weather turns uncooperative for outdoorsy stuff.
Matt McIrvin
@Tim Ellis: Just a few days ago, on a group of generally leftish sympathies, I saw someone going on about how “Biden is just Trump with slightly more respectability” and somehow connecting this to how the DNC stabbed Bernie in the back and forced Hillary on the unwilling people in 2016. So it seems like there are still anti-Democratic-Party Bernie fanatics who won’t let go of it either.
WaterGirl
@Sure Lurkalot:
Assumes facts not in evidence.
opiejeanne
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: I said that yes, more housing is needed, but how do you do that without destroying whole neighborhoods? There are better options but they will cost the developers more, empty lots and derelict commercial buildings, unused warehouses. Instead they look to the neighborhoods where one or two owners are dazzled by a chunk of money they didn’t know their house was worth, and which many times turns out to be a bit less than what it really is worth. Those units are an eyesore if plunked down in the wrong area. They look and work great if clustered together in a new neighborhood in downtown areas, and accommodating businesses within walking distance.
I think a certain sector of housing in Seattle is about to crash because of all of the layoffs in the tech companies.
FelonyGovt
I agree with those who think Sinema is bored with being a Senator and would prefer to transition into a media celebrity or similar “job” where she doesn’t have to even pretend to work.
Additionally, if she ran, who would volunteer for her campaign? I can’t see any dedicated Dems knocking on doors for her.
Barbara
@opiejeanne: I get that it’s hard, but a 2-5 unit houses that many more people even if it cost as much as what used to be there. To a very large extent the problem of homelessness is lack of housing, pure and simple. I don’t think “character of neighborhood” is a legitimate basis for opposing more housing. The character of a neighborhood changes when a behemoth hogs 3/4 of a lot and costs twice as much as what it replaced.
Lack of transportation infrastructure is a concern but it’s also often used as a subterfuge, where localities just refuse to provide it and figure everyone will just walk away. When there is nowhere else to go that’s not going to happen. I get all this. I am in a county that is fighting this fight, and I think that apartment buildings are a better solution than 4 unit homes, but it’s really hard when every project is a huge battle. But I have stopped sympathizing with “quality of life,” “I was here first,” “you might hurt my property values,” “I like the character of my neighborhood” arguments. I barely know my neighbors and I doubt I am alone. Density is what makes local retail feasible.
trollhattan
@opiejeanne: I’ll just leave this here. :-)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1U20il9oTWC5JocL2ZWMK75DTsSm-x8NS/view
kindness
I really enjoy reading you all but why are some of you finger pointing or even talking about Bernie here?
1) Some of you are still triggered about how he shived Hillary in 2016. Replaying old wars is dumb.
2) Comparing Bernie to anyone is bad. VT is 95% white and rural. There is no equivalent comparison.
3) Sinema wanted to be the Democratic John McCain. She thought mavericky would win in AZ except John McCain actually voted with and supported Republican notions most the time. Sinema…not so much.
And last (certainly not least), water. Water is going to be a huge issue in AZ (and all of the southwest) come ’24. There will be no easy answers because there just isn’t enough water to go around. I figure MAGA types will say Democrats are refusing to pump/get more water because climate change which they say isn’t real. I figure Democrats will try to threat the needle. Sad to say reality doesn’t play well in primaries. No one wants to admit they made bad bets on sustaining the state of AZ. Sad because people, decent people, will vote for fantasies if they think it’s their only hope. Yet I continue to hope.
opiejeanne
@Kay: Sedona was a beautiful place when I visited, in the spring several years ago. We were staying in Phoenix to go to Spring Training games and one afternoon we decided to take a trip away from the heat and crowds (couldn’t get tickets to the game we were interested in).
If you’re going to be there for more than a couple of days, you might want to make a side trip to Casa Grande Ruins National Monument. It’s a bit of a drive but worth the trouble.
JanieM
@Barbara: Thank you, this is a great comment and a clear framing of some of the issues.
cmorenc
If Simena proportionately small but key portion of thr electorate will be those stupid enough to think voting for a third party (or truly independent candidate with no party affiliation) carries any effective weight toward advancing rather than net thwarting the ideals and policies they believe the 3p or independent candidate represents.
While Sanders and King are nominally independents, both are so strongly affiliated with the D party as caucus members and are from atypical small states that their example is very atypical from the dynamics where a 3p or nominal independent tries to electorally wedge between or aside from the two major parties. Ralph nader in 2000 and the libertarians (gary somebody and william weld in 2016) or Perot in 1992 are more typical of the perverse results of 3p votes in our current system – their net effect is to much more strongly drain voters from whichever party is closer to the vision/policies they represent, making election of whichever party’s candidate is most antithetical to the 3p votet’s priorities more likely.
opiejeanne
@Dopey-o: Oh no! That’s terrible! I am afraid of a fall like that so I always try to have one hand on the rail when I go up or down our stairs. We have a 28 yo house with oak treads (not red oak, alas), and there is a landing halfway up. No carpet on the stairs, but we had to put a little hall rug at the bottom because it’s difficult to tell where the last step ends and the ground floor begins. We had the oak floors put in when we bought the place, and had the stairs rebuilt because the treads were at uneven heights. We think this was a You-Finish house, and the previous owner did a lot of things that a reputable builder wouldn’t.
trollhattan
@Barbara: We (Sacramento) have a lot of downtown/midtown infill development in the form of apartments ATM, adding thousands of units, most of which are market rate. I expect it will eventually have the impact of depressing currently overpriced rental units that get sky-high rents just because of the shortage. What I (nor anybody else) can’t guess is whether WFH will have a permanent impact on people’s need to commute to work and likewise, mean chronic oversupply of office space.
Single family building here has never returned to the volume prior to the Bush II Recession and home prices remain quite high. Nobody can pencil out how to make money buying a couple of adjacent homes at current prices, then knock them down to build, say, an eight-unit condo complex. But knock down a failed strip mall or quarter-full office building? Bring it on.
Geminid
@cmorenc: I think Johnson’s exceptionally large Libertarian vote in 2016 was padded some by people who believed that Clinton had the race sewn up, so they thought they had a “free” protest vote. I think some less motivated Democratic voters might have stayed home for the same reason.
Suzanne
@Tim Ellis:
Uhhhhh, Mormons are, as a cohort, really uncomfortable with swearing. OH MY HECK is a joke for a reason.
That is the kind of thing that will sand off his appeal in the Phoenix East Valley, Safford, Snowflake, etc.
Geminid
@Suzanne: There’s straight talking, and then there’s cussing. Hopefully Gallego can do the first without the second when he’s speaking in public.
EmbraceYourInnerCrone
@Brachiator: Arizona only has closed Primaries for Presidential elections. Their other Primaries are Open.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
and I just got my first fund-raising text from my new friend Ruben….
opiejeanne
@Barbara: If a unit costs almost as much as the single house that stood there, how does that help affordability? Making it denser is supposed to make things more affordable, at least that’s what they’re saying. It’s not a scarcity of housing as much as the cost of housing in a nice neighborhood. Note the word “nice”.
A lot of people look at an older/affordable house and turn up their noses if it doesn’t have the latest kitchen counters/pot-filler/induction stovetop, then complain that they can’t find something they can afford. I have little sympathy for that particular subset of buyers.
Suzanne
@kindness:
Yes thank you. He’s not analogous to Sinema even a little bit.
I will also note that the Democratic coalition needs a lot of people who share much of Sanders’ politics, even if they don’t care for him personally. As someone who likes winning things….what is to be gained by antagonizing them?
The people who voted for AOC, Ilhan Omar, Cori Bush, Summer Lee….are probably all really solid Democratic votes. I will note that that includes mine.
trollhattan
@opiejeanne: New York is currently ranked least affordable city in the world. They do not lack density.
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/world-most-expensive-cities-economist-2022/index.html
UncleEbeneezer
@Betty Cracker: When someone shows me the evidence that Garland or Smith has a reputation for pulling Lucy-with-the-football on big cases because of political fear, I’ll start assuming that’s gonna happen. But neither has that reputation. Period. In fact, quite the opposite. Is it possible they will do so, this time? Of course, and believe me I get (and to some extent share) the fear/trepidation of that happening. But at the end of the day, is there any evidence/track-record/reason to justify the assumption that they will? No. In fact, every day we see more and more evidence that DOJ is expanding it’s scope, exploring new angles of potential crimes etc. That doesn’t look like a DOJ that is afraid of Trump (or the political ramifications of bringing him to justice) to me.
lowtechcyclist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The perfect encapsulation of our Manic Pixie Nightmare Girl U.S. Senator.
I hope and pray that Fox News will offer her a well-paid “even the liberal Krysten Sinema says…” gig, and she does a Palin, thus allowing Gov. Hobbs to appoint her replacement.
Suzanne
@Geminid: “Blunt, real talk” is, like, the antithesis of what a lot of that cohort wants.
I found this from an anonymous poster on Reddit. OMG it is soooo true.
Gallego is in a majority Latino district. Do not assume that the rest of the state is the same.
opiejeanne
@trollhattan: October in Riverside the heat can be brutal and I don’t understand why they think that was a good idea (And why are they running there when Fairmont Park is about a mile away? Holy cow! adjacent to Main and North of Columbia? Most of that was empty ground and industrial areas when we left.
I am somewhat familiar with the Northside, and we deliberately did not live there. but we haven’t lived in Riverside since 1992. We were just down Redwood from Fairmont Park.
lowtechcyclist
@trollhattan:
NYC is a very desirable place to live, and even given their current housing stock, a lot more people still want to live there than there is housing for. And the residential parts of the city are far from being wall-to-wall 20-story apartment buildings; NYC could easily have a lot more housing than it does now.
Soprano2
@Suzanne: I read a story this weekend about how the suburb of Rio Verde, which is about 30 miles from Scottsdale and has no infrastructure of its own, is now suing Scottsdale to try to force them to continue selling water to the suburb. The water wars are going to get really, really fierce out there. People don’t think about where water actually comes from until there isn’t any.
Subsole
@UncleEbeneezer:
I…damn.
Thanks for sharing that.
gvg
@Betty Cracker: Never really thought about it but, I would think It may be screened. The “Presidents house” is a fund raising place more than a residence and some of the last few Presidents have not even lived there. They may want a huge pool for large parties, with life guards and such? And last, as I recall that location is sloped with some ravines or creeeks. They may need to do quite a bit of ground stabilization to put a pool in there. My father was recently explaining about pools that pop out of the ground when drained for repairs because ground water pushes them out with out the weight of the water in the pools….The University is at the top of a hill and slopes steeply down from the Presidents house towards 34th St over several blocks. Did you ever bicycle that hill? when I think about it, that is not the best location for a pool. I am glad its all donors not tax payers. Which probably goes back to the fund raising party aspect. It’s the donors that want the pool. I wonder if Sasse even knows or cares. He’s from Nebraska, not a big swimming pool area. The last President lived elsewhere because his wife wanted horses I think. So this house was controlled by the Foundation for the last 10 years & not lived in.
cmorenc
@Barbara:
if a key part of the solution to homelessness (or less drastically, the unaffordability to many of being able to purchase) housing is increasing density of #of people per acre (as opposed to mcmansions replacing smaller houses without incresing population density) – how exactly do you get there with the vast swaths of American suburbia already occupied by high-value low density neighborhoods, especially those where the current land-use pattern is locked in by deed covenants and HOAs, and the existing street and utilities infrastructure is not designed to support substantially higher density? This is before even factoring in the likelihood of most or all current owners in these developments banding together to fight like hell against anyone trying to forcibly enact laws or policies negating those limitations on potential use.
Example: our apx 3k sq ft house in Raleigh NC is (occupied by just wife and me) sits on a sort of pie-slice shaped 2/3 acre lot with street frontage apx 100 ft but wooded back yard more like 160 ft – of which about a quarter-acre in the back-right is effectively cut off by current property lines & street configuration, even aside from HOA restriction that would certainly come into play. Even if I wanted to somehow make more intensive use of that 1/4 acre for more than pleasant scenery, i could not without prohibitively fierce opposition, in addition to the covenant, HOA and physical access prohibitory factors.
Suzanne
@Soprano2: Oh, I know it.
The largest industry in Arizona is development. If they don’t grow, they have no economy. It isn’t sustainable.
Princess
@Elizabelle: So McGonigal was working for the FBI in 2016, right through the election.
Things that make you say hmmmm.
Soprano2
@piratedan: I second that, we went there when I went to an SAI convention in 2018 (that’s a women’s music fraternity). They have the world’s largest bass! It was an interesting place. They also had instruments that were made from recycled trash from landfills in South America.
Ken
@Soprano2: I think I read the same story. One all-too-predictable twist is that the development is outside the Scottsdale tax district, and in fact was sold on that basis (“avoid city taxes by moving to Rio Verde”). And of course though the residents are filing suit to make Scottsdale provide them with water, they still don’t want to pay to support the city infrastructure.
CaseyL
@opiejeanne: There are a truly astonishing number of high-rise buildings going up in the U District, and most of them will be apartments, with retail on the ground floor. In the last few years, the U District has sprouted an equally astonishing number of mid-rise apartment buildings.
Coming north on the freeway, seeing all the towers and cranes, the U District looks like a downtown. It was historically a sort of de facto “downtown” for the area… until the only local elementary school closed, and most of the families moved out. The deterioration since then has been heartbreaking, and I hope the new housing is meant to attract non-students as well as students. It would be awfully nice to see the District revive to a bustling area that’s fun to roam around in, rather than a place where you have to keep a watchful eye on everyone around you, and also be careful where you step for fear of stepping in something awful.
Geminid
@Suzanne: I know that Ruben Gallego represents a majority Latino district and believe it or not, I am not so naive as to assume the rest of Arizona is the same.
But the rest of the state can’t be full of LDS Church ladies either.
tobie
@Suzanne: what was the winning coalition that Mark Kelly built?
Kay
@piratedan:
My youngest would love that – he’s a musician- but sadly he grew up so is no longer our sidekick on these trips. This is the first one we’re taking without him. He was a really good traveler. Just so easy going. We one time got stuck in Florida because there were storms all across the midwest airports and we had to rent a car and drive home because my husband and I had to be at work. He was “what kind of car are we renting?!”
I went to a famous record store in LA with him and I told him to be careful, it was “seedy” (which I knew he would like). It had this odd atmosphere of incipient violence, like some of the eccentrics could SNAP at any moment. I had to remain alert! He just loved that word. Told all his friends – Hollywood is “seedy“
Suzanne
@Geminid: The Phoenix East Valley is the second-largest LDS community in the world. Other areas I already named, including Safford and Snowflake, have large LDS populations. They’re a large and important constituency there.
Sinema is an ex-Mormon. I think that is part of why she knows how to make just enough inroads into that community.
piratedan
@Kay: that sure sounds like Amoeba Records (close to the Hollywood Blvd and Vine intersection) and it’s a lovely store, chock full of old performance fliers and ecclectic staff. Nothing like losing yourself for a couple of hours going thru the bins trying to find something that would fill a niche in your collection!
Elizabelle
@Princess: Yes. I think it’s a big story.
Pull those threads.
lowtechcyclist
@The Moar You Know:
I was in L.A. just a few years ago. Sure, it’s full, but most of it’s not very dense. There’s a lot of sky up there, just waiting to be filled.
piratedan
@Suzanne: the GOP needs a reverse Ferris Buehler to bring them all together….
these are some of the “significant factions” and a Venn Diagram would show some overlap but not as much as you might think…
The gun nuts/2nd amendment devotionists/my ranch, my land, my rules
the LDS Caucus/nice white polite Caucasian people that prefer members of said same
The white supremacists/constitutional sheriff types
the evangelical right
The Chamber of Commerce greed is Good types
The Faux News Brainwashed bunch
The ultra MAGA types turned off some of the LDS and Chamber of Commerce types and depending on what Faux News tells them, will vote as told… but the reverse may be true if someone isn’t meeting the Cruelty standards of the MAGA crowd to induce them to stay home.
Subsole
@Suzanne: In fairness, his movement spends a LOT of its time shit-talking and antagonizing the rest of the coalition. Always telling us we better not antagonize them, better give them everything they want just so, or they will stay home and let the fascists punish us. Or sitting there loudly demanding something, then immediately shitting on it when we get it for them.
The loudest of them act like they get to set the agenda while mocking everyone else’s concerns.
I suppose this ties into Bernie’s socialism. He was building a socialist/activist vanguard, rather than a component in a coalition. I may be wrong about that. Just how it looks to me, on the outside.
And, in fairness, a lot of that is less Bernie and more the absolute GALAXY of dirtbag leftist influencers who battened onto his campaign and thrived under his aegis. (Which, on the gripping hand, still does not speak well of Bernie’s judgment…)
My main problem with Bernie as a politician is that he built a Vanguard that doesn’t think it needs the rest of the army. And, in fact, treats the rest of the army like shit. Go read up on Custer to see how that works out for the vanguard.
Also, too, it would be nice if these folks could go protest Mitch McConnell’s office every now and again, instead of just shitting on the rest of our coalition exclusively.
Suzanne
@tobie: Kelly’s coalition involved a fair amount of Republican/independent crossover.
I think Kelly provides a good template for a Dem to win statewide. Don’t be flashy, have a fairly low-key affect.
And be an astronaut and have a wife who is beloved.
Geminid
@Suzanne: I understand that Arizona has a lot of LDS Church members, and some of them may be important swing voters
But Gallego is who he is and talks how he talks, and that is more like Harry Truman than Kyrsten Sinema.
He’ll have to avoid the F-bombs, but I think he’ll be a disciplined enough candidate to do this. He’s a very smart politician from what I’ve seen.
Gin & Tonic
@The Moar You Know:
Bullshit. Population density of San Diego is a bit over 4,000 people per square mile. Population density of Brooklyn, NY is over 38,000 people per square mile.
Tim Ellis
@Matt McIrvin: Yeah I see those posts too, and will at times engage to shoot down the subject matter, but usually it’s not worth it – there’s a bitte cadre of folks still fighting that battle (on both sides, though I think there’s more market for it on the leftern flank because a lot of those folks were, like me, not Democrats to begin with and thus had fewer loyalties to start).
I do think that most of us who were core Bernie people have fully accepted the need to unite to take on the GOP, and also have been gratified by the lengths to which Biden and establishment Dems have reached out to include our policy priorities this time; the difference in treatment this time vs 2016 is substantial and has made a big difference. I can’t speak for everyone but for me and my immediate peers, we are pretty fed up with the Jimmy Dore “progressives” who seem to do nothing but slag on the Democratic party (the fascists are right there, folks!) and are also stupid lol (“Force the vote” never made any strategic sense).
Basically the Democratic party has expanded to include our views, and the far-right is an obvious threat so the stakes are real high, so the folks who are serious have responded to that and gotten on board and the folks who are not serious… well, you see their posts lol
opiejeanne
@trollhattan: There’s a failed mall right next to a brand new rail transit station, Northgate Mall. That could be repurposed for different types and prices of housing, and businesses without impacting or being influenced by the neighborhood nearby. My youngest lives in an apartment building just the other side of the freeway,
I was looking at Phinney Ridge/Green Lake, an area with outrageous prices last time I looked, very nice area north of downtown Seattle, and a developer has bought an older brick building that housed 5 units above small businesses (a pie shop!) and will build a new building with 20 units above the small business space below. The pie shop will be staying because of the location. I really like that kind of usage of older properties.
Suzanne
@opiejeanne: Awwww. I have memories as a kid of that Green Lake area. My great-grandmother lived in a retirement apartment building right next to the lake, and she wasn’t really bright…..she told my mom that she would walk three-quarters of the way around the lake and then turn around and walk back. My mom asked, “Why don’t you just walk all the way around the lake?”. She said, “Oh my goodness, I can’t walk that far!” LMAO.
Northgate was her favorite shopping destination.
Paul in KY
@Kay: Sounds like you guys will have alot of fun!
Suzanne
@Tim Ellis:
The thing is….the Democratic Party, or at least a slice of it, always included those views. What was different is that the cohort wasn’t organized and so there were never enough of those people to be effective.
As someone who voted in the 2020 primary for Senator Professor Warren, I feel like she does a better job of conveying to people who share our politics that we will only change anything from the inside. As such, pragmatism is necessary, if not sexy.
Captain C
@Kay:
If you get a chance, nip over to Jerome (half an hour south on the 89A). If you haven’t heard of it, it’s a former mining town turned ghost town turned art town on top of a mountain. Good art shops and restaurants galore there (and also a great view of the Verde Valley).
Anyway
All this discussion of Kay’s upcoming AZ vacation and blogFather’s Floriduh vacay makes me want to start planning a trip … earliest I can get away is April. Hmmm.
Omnes Omnibus
@kindness: One person made the comparison. Everyone else disputed it.
Kay
@Captain C:
I would love mining town. I took the mining train trip in Minnesota’s iron range with the youngest. No one else would come with me :)
Oh, well. Their loss! They know NOTHING about mining iron ore.
WaterGirl
@Betty Cracker:
For what it’s worth, I think that was factored in when Merrick Garland chose Jack Smith.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@opiejeanne: I understand why people get touchy about changing existing neighborhoods, but the prices are high for housing in those neighborhoods is because people WANT to live there. You can get people to move to areas they generally don’t want to live if its cheap enough. The whole loft craze started as super cheap converted housing in unwanted mostly vacant neighborhoods. It took a special kind of person to live there, though, because crime was high and things like grocery stores were non-existant in those areas.
Housing development is a business. They are going to build where they know there is demand and they can get a return on their investments. Its only when all those opportunities have dried up that they will take a chance on a shady neighborhood of vacant lots and empty warehouses.
Barbara
@opiejeanne: Availability has become so stretched that it will take a long time for affordability to catch up. As I said, apartments would be better, for instance, turning a now defunct shopping mall into a residential complex is something that is starting to happen around here. And I certainly support targeted affordability efforts if they are feasible. But building more is the long-term solution and you have to start somewhere.
Barbara
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: My husband’s church embarked on a targeted affordable housing project that was an apartment building in keeping with the surrounding buildings. They would like to have gone taller but were dissuaded to placate the neighbors, who weren’t placated in any event. We were sued four times. Over an apartment building on a main road surrounded by other commercial and residential buildings of similar size. These same people are losing their sh&t over zoning that would make duplexes or potentially more units feasible. I see the issues with this multi-unit buildings, but no solution will ever be good enough when people are invested more in their property values than their actual communities.
rikyrah
We need to setup a thermometer for him. This is a candidate I want to get behind.
eddie blake
@Geminid: yup. midwood. same as me.
his childhood home was down the street from where i grew up.
Suzanne
@Barbara: Lots of homeowners hate density and affordable housing because they don’t want poor or working-class people nearby. They don’t want cars parked outside, they don’t want to see people working on their cars. They want the yards kept perfectly, don’t want drug use or young people coming and going at all hours.
Barbara
@Suzanne: That’s not the situation we face here, where the people who need affordable housing are teachers, nurses and other comparable service providers. If people can’t wrap their brains around that it’s because they don’t want to.
rikyrah
UH HUH
UH HUH
rikyrah
@Baud:
clap clap clap clap clap
Captain C
@Kay: There’s a little mining museum that only costs a few bucks to get in (right between the two main bars in town). It’s definitely worth it if you’re into that sort of thing. There’s also some random mining machinery about town, IIRC.
Kent
I am a Democrat and I support Democrats.
If she actually wanted the support of Democrats and wanted to run in the Democratic primary then she probably shouldn’t have pissed on them and then quit the party. Arizona doesn’t have a jungle primary like WA or CA. It has actual party primaries.
Kent
A bigger part of the calculation than you might imagine is that they don’t want *those* people attending their kid’s schools.
Kent
@trollhattan: That is because a lot of people want to live in New York.
The more relevant question is whether New York would be MORE expensive or LESS expensive if new construction was halted or severely cut back.
Subsole
@Kent:
This also explains a fair chunk of their opposition to mass transit.
Eduardo
@schrodingers_cat: Yes, I remember Lou Dobbs and his show. Think it was supposedly related to business but it was a daily hate party against immigration and immigrants. Found that obsession bewildering back then, do not think anybody else in cable was doing that so much. And yes, I clearly remember Mr Democratic Socialism going to that show to agree on everything with the host. Found it weird.
Then of course, there is his narcissism, his sectarism, his 1970s radical’s ideology, his “don’t know what is wrong with [Cuba]” while visiting an American in a Cuban jail and a long etc.
I do hate his guts and seeing him in TV causes me every time to say something about his mother. My nephew finds it funny.
Sinema is an SOB. But yeah, not nearly as damaging
Also, love Ruben Gallego.
Geminid
@Geminid: So I got curious about the number of LDS Church members in Arizona. Wikipedia tells me 392,000 out of a total population of 7.15 million. That was rounded down to 5% but it’s really more like 5.4 %, which is almost as large as the state’s Black population (listed as 5.5%) and larger than the Native population (4.9%). I expect LDS members vote more than the average so they would be a larger portion of the electorate than that 5.4% indicates.
I’m guessing they do not deviate too far from the norm as far as their number of swing voters.
Eduardo
@Geminid: I think Gallego has been the absolute best in Latin issues in the Democratic Party, and his salty language is just fine.
Tim Ellis
@Suzanne: That’s fair. I think in hindsight the right answer would have been to get involved and try to help change it, but of course it’s easy for me to say that now from the comfort of a middle class job in a country with universal healthcare, whereas back then when I was upset about the Iraq War (which is what first pushed me left – I grew up in a hard Republican family and at first voted that way) I was just coming out of a stretch of homelessness, was constantly in pain because I lacked health insurance despite working 40+ hours a week, and just surviving took most of my energy, so it was easier to check out.
I think you’re right, it was the lack of visible organization for that cohort of folks which made it seem like a bit of a lost cause from outside.
I was hoping to support Warren in 2020 and didn’t think Bernie should run; I thought he served his role admirably in 2016 and that the job was done and time to hand it over and I regret how it went down. I do think you’re right that Warren does a better job of communicating the inside-track theory of progressive change, though I think we also need people running the outside track to make the space for people on the inside, and I think Bernie’s message of “you can go out and make it happen if you do it together” was really powerful for folks who had felt abandoned by the process up til then (at least, it worked on me).
But now that I’m inside, I do feel more resonance with Warren-style messaging.
Mai Naem mobile
2024 is a general election year so that will affect whether Gallego ends up with a Trumper or a Non Trumper GOP opponent. Richard Carmona ran in 2012 against Jeff Flake when Jon Kyl retired. I still contend that if Mittens the Mormon hadn’t been the GOP candidate and Flake wasn’t a Mormon, Carmona would have won. IIRC he lost by 3-4%. This is 10 years ago. AZ is bluer now. I don’t see Kimberly Yee running on the GOP side and if she does I don’t see her making out of the primary. She’s Chinese American and if one paid any attention to the last two Kelly elections, one would know the AZ GOP make about as big a deal about the ‘Red Chinese’ coming as the brown caravans coming over the Southern border. If Gallego communicates like his new ad he’s got a very very good chance of winning. If he communicates like Bernie forget it. My guess would be that the AZ GOP would go with a Hispanic or Mormon or Mormon Hispanic to peel off votes from Gallego. I think Ducey is waiting for POTUS or Veep.
hells littlest angel
She was just as instrumental as the 49 others who voted “aye.” What a weird attempt to make her seem important.
Geminid
@hells littlest angel: I took “instrumental” as just another way of saying “helped.”
Geminid
@Mai Naem mobile: The people who used to call the shots in the Arizona GOP might have pursued the pragmatic course in selecting candidates you suggest. But Krazy Kelli Ward and the radicals have the upper hand now, and the “rational” pick will have to get past Krazier Kari Lake.
GibberJack
@Suzanne:
Surely a candidate for a rotating tag!