I got my last COVID shot and my last flu shot on the same day, one in each arm. Poke, poke, done. I don't have any objection to doing that in perpetuity.https://t.co/BbfH080pSf
— John Scalzi (@scalzi) January 23, 2023
Gift (unpaywalled) link:
… The agency, in briefing documents released in advance of a meeting this week with its vaccine advisers, said the goal is to determine in the spring which strain will pose the greatest threat the following winter. A vaccine targeting that strain would then be administered in the fall, in the hopes that a streamlined effort would encourage vaccine uptake.
The evidence suggests that “moving forward, most individuals may only need to receive one dose” of a coronavirus vaccine “to restore protective immunity for a period of time,” the FDA said in the briefing papers. The change in strategy is expected to be one of the key topics discussed at the agency’s vaccine advisory committee meeting scheduled for Thursday. The advisers’ views will be taken into consideration when the FDA decides on a final plan.
The FDA’s proposal represents a shift from its strategy of pushing boosters to counter variant threats — an effort that ran into resistance from the public, which showed little interest in getting repeated shots. The new blueprint for an annual dose of protection drew conflicting reactions…
The FDA suggested Monday that the annual formulation for coronavirus vaccines would be chosen every June, in time to be manufactured and administered by September as part of a yearly immunization campaign. The goal would be to select the strain most likely to be dominant in the winter, when people are indoors and coronavirus cases typically rise. The strategy suggests a recognition that the virus has become endemic, a part of the American health-care scene that will recur year after year.
If there were an emergency — the appearance of a more dangerous variant capable of evading vaccine-endowed immunity — the FDA would call an impromptu meeting of its vaccine advisers and select a new strain to counter the threat, the agency indicated.
While most people would get an annual shot, people who are older, very young or immunocompromised, or who have serious health problems, might need two doses, the FDA briefing document said.…
The FDA, according to the document, also is seeking an endorsement from the committee to retire the original vaccination formula that entered the market in late 2020 — the monovalent version that targets the original virus. That means the updated, bivalent booster would be used for the original two-shot series as well as for the booster — until a new strain is chosen…
Regional map of cases accounted by XBB.1.5. Still a lot or room for growth outside of the Northeast, mid-Atlantic pic.twitter.com/OqLFnC3ngc
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 20, 2023
Repeating to fix error:
Where are we headed with #Covid shots? On Thursday @US_FDA will ask expert advisers their thoughts about its plan to move to yearly shots updated to try to keep up with the ever changing virus. @matthewherper explains. #VRBPAC https://t.co/50Kn4iAOuD— Helen Branswell 🇺🇦 (@HelenBranswell) January 23, 2023
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"…while global immunization prevented 63% of potential total deaths (19.8 M of an estimated 31.4 M excess deaths in the absence of #vaccine), in COVAX AMC countries only 41% of potential total deaths were averted (7.4 million of 17.9 million)."https://t.co/URwz8VtZBK— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 23, 2023
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China reports nearly 13k #Covid deaths in a week. The death toll came a week after reporting ~60k people had died of Covid in just over a month—but widespread skepticism persists over the govt's data after abruptly ceasing anti-virus controls last month https://t.co/W3Kf2ttcWP
— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) January 23, 2023
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In Japan and think you may have the coronavirus? Here's what to do | The Japan Times https://t.co/BpE49uYmbx
— Global Travel Adventures (@Wolf_Travels) January 23, 2023
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We have had more COVID deaths in the first 20 days of 2023 than we had in the whole of 2020. Our death toll in 2023 is 1,063 deaths in just 20 days. A person dies of COVID every 27 minutes. Our current COVID containment strategy is not working https://t.co/cO9cf6Eqfe pic.twitter.com/aN5pU3GkU5
— Prof Kathy Eagar (@k_eagar) January 21, 2023
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Some of the best #COVID19 research is coming out of #SouthAfrica and this long paper is a striking example. Here, they show how variants of #SARSCoV2 competed with each other, swept over the country, and cross-reacted with immune systems. Dynamite work.https://t.co/AAC0uDUXjy
— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 23, 2023
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More evidence of residual virus after initial recovery as a culprit for #LongCovid in some peoplehttps://t.co/57WpSoVAD4 @GiaccaMauro pic.twitter.com/0J604z7WH8
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 21, 2023
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Health Minister Lauterbach stated today that there is a mistranslation of what he said from what should be "we don't know how long it will last" to "incurable".
— Yaneer Bar-Yam @[email protected] (@yaneerbaryam) January 22, 2023
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Took me 3 seconds to find the ingredients online. It seems as if the “do your own research” crowd is really bad at doing research https://t.co/SAIYASoyGc https://t.co/LWTXevyiFh pic.twitter.com/Y0I4LgsoXS
— Eric Burnett, MD (@Doctor_Eric_B) January 22, 2023
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On The Road – MollyS – The Streets of Lyon France October 2022 (1)
NeenerNeener
Monroe County, NY:
104 new cases on 01/20/22.
124 new cases on 01/21/22.
91 new cases on 01/22/22.
65 new cases on 01/23/22.
Deaths at 2150, up 11 from last week. No bueno.
As for hospital beds, only 2% are actually available, including 17 ICU beds among 4 hospitals. The two largest hospitals have no regular available beds and only 11 ICU beds open between the two of them.
New Deal democrat
BIobot’s latest update shows a continued small decline in COVID, to levels roughly in the middle of their range during the last 9 months. The biggest decline is in the Northeast, which nevertheless is at the highest absolute level. There are very small declines in the South and West, and a slight increase in the Midwest.
At 53,100, confirmed cases similarly are closer to their low of 34,400 for the past 6 months, than their recent high of 76,600. Regionally the Northeast and West have continued to decline, while the South and Midwest have risen slightly. The South is now only slightly below the Northeast. NY, NJ, and RI, as well as PR, continue among the hardest hit jurisdictions, while the northern Plains and Mountain States are faring the best. CA and the Pacific Northwest are also doing relatively well.
Hospitalizations have continued to rapidly decline to 32,300, vs. their January 2 high of 47,100 and their October low of 22,900. Deaths,however, have increased to 609, only slightly below their peak of 611 earlier this month and also the peak in the last 9 months.
The good news is that, even measured by Biobot, this winter continues to be much better than the last two, and cases have continued to decline. The bad news is the level of deaths maintaining their highest level in 9 months.
Princess
It’s not like it’s going to be one and done in China. A small percentage of people get reinfected a few weeks after being previously infected, especially if there’s still a lot of Covid floating around. A small percentage of a billion is a very large number.
also, I don’t know how useful Scalzi’s chipperness is. A flu shot is ten minutes out of my day. A Covid booster is 48 hours of pain for something that prevents a relatively unlikeydeath but does not stop me from getting the disease. I’ll keep getting them but I expect uptake to continue to drop unless we get better vaccines.
Amir Khalid
Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 142 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 5,034,972 cases. 141 of these new cases were local infections; one new case was imported. It also reported no deaths, for an adjusted cumulative total that remains at 36,932 deaths – 0.73% of the cumulative reported total, 0.74% of resolved cases.
17,986 Covid-19 tests were conducted on 20th January, with a positivity rate of 1.8%.
There were 10,212 active cases yesterday, 125 fewer than the day before. 331 were in hospital. 16 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, 11 confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 267 more patients recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,987,828 patients recovered – 99.1% of the cumulative reported total.
The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 1,893 doses of vaccine on 23rd January: 24 first doses, 15 second doses, 275 first booster doses, and 1,579 second booster doses. The cumulative total is 72,718,859 doses administered: 28,125,245 first doses, 27,536,657 second doses, 16,297,142 first booster doses, and 759,815 second booster doses. 86.1% of the population have received their first dose, 84.3% their second dose, 49.9% their first booster dose, and 2.3% their second booster dose.
Suzanne
So….who is Catturd? I want deets.
Ohio Mom
@Princess: It turns out you can still get the flu after getting the vaccine but like the Covid shot, you’ll most likely just get a mild case.
I don’t think I’ll ever get both shots on the same day, going forward I will do what I’ve done in the past, space them two weeks apart. If I am going to react to something, I want to know what it is that I’m reacting to.
OzarkHillbilly
@Suzanne: Catturd
No name associated with the account but the asshole is a fan of Ron DeSantis.
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: Our state site hasn’t updated since January 9th. Good news is that I’m seeing green triangles pointing down in several places, which means viral load is dropping. In looking at the cumulative graph I see a rough pattern since vaccines became available – there is a spike in the summer, then one around November/December/January. Almost like it eases up in fall and spring and comes on strong in summer and winter. That coincides with when people are spending more time indoors. It’s probably the pattern we’ll see from now on.
Steeplejack
@Suzanne:
Catturd has achieved Twitter fame by being an account that Elon Musk apparently follows obsessively and replies to a lot. It has become a meme that Catturd complains about something and Musk replies, “Looking into it.” So now Twitter hipsters use “Looking into it” as a joke response for everything.
kalakal
@Princess:
It’s really variable, some people get wiped out by ‘flu vaccines, some don’t even notice. Same with covid.
With Covid, I’m lucky, I basically just feel mildly off colour the next with a slightly sore arm for a day or so. Mrs kalaklal is not so fortunate and feels quite ill for 2 days.
I have venom shots every 2 months, they vary from nothing, to slightly sore, to can’t bend my arms for 2 days afterwards. Fortunately it’s the one of the first 2 options 9 times out of ten. It’s the same stuff but the reactions vary wildly, really strange.
Like you I figure the side effects are better than the disease. This really applies to shingles vaccines.
Cameron
@OzarkHillbilly: That says it all.
Suzanne
@Steeplejack: Yeah, I know that part. I was wondering if we knew the identity of Catturd. Whomever it is seems to have gotten disproportionate attention.
NorthLeft
COVID (and other respiratory diseases) are running rampant here in Ontario. No one wants to talk about it, that includes my wife and I, or do anything about it…which does not include my wife and I. Still masking, up to date on vaccinations, and managing our potential exposures.
Talked to my brother and SIL in Alberta who now have COVID. I am worried about my SIL as it has hit her harder, and she has some pre-existing health issues. Hopefully she is able to ride it out.
This leaves me, my wife, and eldest daughter in England as the only family on both sides who have not had COVID. Got the eldest daughter the latest COVID booster when she came home at Christmas. She cannot get the vaccination in England because she is too young and healthy. More penny pinching from the Tory government.
CindyH
@Princess: I have had all the shots and boosters – never had a problem with any of them. As for shingles shot, I did get tired/achy with the 2nd one for a day. So, most the folks I know won’t mind a yearly shot as they didn’t have reactions either. I have no idea how many get bad reactions – just anecdotally everyone that I know didn’t have 48 hour pain.
NorthLeft
@Suzanne: I could have led a very happy life without ever hearing about this catturd person. It is astonishing to me that this person can command such attention for mostly repeating extremely stupid and ignorant takes.
I’ll take a wild guess and say that HE is a Republican that loudly claims that HE is “Independent”!
New Deal democrat
@Soprano2: “it eases up in fall and spring and comes on strong in summer and winter. That coincides with when people are spending more time indoors. It’s probably the pattern we’ll see from now on.”
Yes, exactly. Dr. Carl Bergstrom highlighted a study several months ago that projected there would be exactly this seasonal type variation, like the flu, but with a high background base of “off-season” cases, very much *unlike* the flu.
Ohio Mom
@kalakal: Oh yes, I lost a day after each of my shingles shots. The insult to injury is, had I waited another six months, as a Medicare recipient they would have been free (starting this month, thank you Joe Biden!).
Soprano2
@kalakal: Thank goodness the shingles vaccine is a two shot and done affair! If I had to take it every year, whew would that be unpleasant. ETA – a friend at Jazzercize told me yesterday that 3 people at her church around the age of 45 had shingles shortly after they recovered from Covid. That doesn’t sound like a coincidence to me. They used to think shingles wasn’t a problem for people under 60; now I’m hearing more and more about people in their 40’s getting it.
Suzanne
@NorthLeft: Right?! Like, Catturd’s content is not funny or insightful or notable in any way. It doesn’t strike me as any different than the random musings of any random schmuck in an Ohio diner. I am wondering why he (I bet you’re correct) gets attention. Makes me think he might be a known person.
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: A lot more like the common cold, except for the summer thing which is strange.
Miss Bianca
@Princess: This year my reaction to the flu shot was more severe than my reaction to the latest COVID booster. And by “more severe”, I mean I had a headache for a little while.
The relative painlessness of this time’s go-round astonished me, because usually my reaction to both flu *and* COVID shots are…more severe. As in “down for at least 24-36 hours feeling like I’ve been hit by a truck.”
Another Scott
@Suzanne: I wouldn’t be surprised. TFG dug him up around 3 years ago.
Yet another way for conspiracy theorists and RWNJs to gain visibility.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
dmsilev
LA County hospitalizations continue to drop, now down to about 2/3s of where they were at the peak around New Years. That’s a good sign, especially since the peak this year was much lower than the Omicron peak a year ago. Still means several hundred people in the hospital with the disease though.
Annual vaccination updates (probably best not to call them “boosters” any more) sounds like a reasonable approach for the future. Flu vaccinations are quadrivalent if I recall correctly, so there’s already precedent for the “make an educated guess as to which variants will be most prevalent four or six months from now, and pick two” approach.
sab
@Ohio Mom: Yes. Shingles shot was costly.
OzarkHillbilly
@Suzanne: The hate mongers always do.
kalakal
This years flu vaccine is the only one I’ve ever had a reaction too, it wasn’t much, but normally I have no reaction.
I looked up the strains it contains and one of them is H3N2 which damn near killed me in the 1968 pandemic. I’m sure there’s no connection just think it’s a coincidence
OzarkHillbilly
@Soprano2: My little bro got it when he was in his 40s. I’m vaxed now.
Anne Laurie
There have been many ‘jokes’ on left-leaning twitter that Catturd just might be Musk’s alter ego.
He does seem to be Musk’s beau ideal of a twitter user — i.e., a loud’n’proud know-nothing who ping-pongs between paranoia and soliciting hate-clicks.
I’d say he was to Musk-twitter as Baud is to Balloon Juice, and hope that Baud and his fans will forgive me for the mirror-world comparison!
Miss Bianca
@Anne Laurie: I hope not! For anyone who might be confused and/or offended, however, the following simple primer should suffice:
As everyone knows, Baud is the cat’s pajamas.
Catturd is the cat’s asshole.
That is all, thank you.
sab
@Anne Laurie: This Baud fan will never forgive you, at least until your next post.
gvg
I have not really had any reaction to any of the shots except maybe the first Covid shot in that I slept for a day after, but I had a 2 hour drive to get it in slow traffic (road work) then same back plus worry they wouldn’t let me get it or be out. I have had some sore arms. Because I had so much time to think about vaccines while waiting for it to be created I have also had flu, pnemonia, and shingles shots in the last few years with also no reaction. I don’t think they are keeping stats on all the people who have nothing but I think it’s most people. My family including older relatives have not been reporting much reaction either.
WaterGirl
@kalakal: I see “venom” and think snakes. But your shots are for bees or wasps or something, right?
WaterGirl
@Ohio Mom: Yeah, but you might have gotten shingles during that 6 months, which would we awful. I hope you seriously wish you had waited.
Matt McIrvin
@Princess: Flu shots and COVID shots affect me about the same amount. The main difference is that with the flu shot, the headaches and such are mostly the same afternoon, and with COVID shots there’s a longer delay; it’s mostly the following morning. So if I get them both at the same time, I get both of those, and if they’re in different shoulders I have two sore shoulders instead of one. But, eh, it was fine getting them both at once.
The effect of the shots is also comparable. Flu shots are far from 100% effective at keeping you from getting the flu (which is one of the things that contributes to people insisting the shot GAVE them the flu). They do keep it from being worse than it would be.
What I’m wondering is just if yearly is really good enough for COVID. I suspect the bivalent booster may have actually kept me from getting COVID until mid-January, but by then the antibodies would have been pretty much gone.
CliosFanBoy
@Soprano2:
I had it when I was in my 40s. Caught it quickly though and the antiviral I was given nipped it in the bud before it got bad. The doctor I saw brought in his nurse so she could see what shingles looked like when it first started to appear. (I gave my permission).
WaterGirl
@kalakal: Huh. That’s really interesting. It might be just a coincidence, but I’m not sure why you would be sure that it is.
Suzanne
@kalakal: I got this year’s flu shot and COVID booster at the same time, both in the left arm. The flu shot hurt more, and then I had a lymph node swell up below my left collarbone. I was all freaked out about it, and then I read that it is a known side effect of this year’s flu shot.
I am someone who is very pro-vaccines, but I do wish there was better communication about normal and harmless side effects. With the first COVID vax, my next period was super-heavy, and it was alarming. I didn’t put two and two together. Again, turned to Google, and it is apparently a common reaction. But I got no warning about it.
This is the kind of thing that is perfect fertilizer for disinformation.
WaterGirl
@Miss Bianca: I thought Baud was the cat’s meow? :-)
WaterGirl
@Matt McIrvin: I don’t know how old you are, but they did say that older people and folks with immune issues might have to get more than one.
steppy
@WaterGirl: Baud is the dog’s bollocks.
kalakal
@WaterGirl: Wasps and hornets*. Kill me in about 45 minutes through anaphylactic cardio- vascular collapse.
Epinephrin is miraculous stuff, it saved my life for sure
Allergies are really specific, bees don’t bother me at all and I’m much more allergic to Yellow Jackets than Paper Wasps ( which was what stung me) than Bald Faced Hornets than Yellow Hornets, it’s really that specific
After 5 years of shots they can run a blood test to see if the treatment worked. The blood draw is this thursday!!!!!
The allergist is really confident, with any luck the shots I had last friday will be the last. 😀😀😀😀😀
For me the worst thing about the venom shots isn’t the shots** it’s the antihistamines I take around them, they make me really woozy
* Hornets are really just big wasps
** The equivalent of a 100 wasps in one arm, 100 hornets in the other. Pro tip – Hornets hurt more
kalakal
@WaterGirl: I just figured if it was a thing more people would have mentioned it. A lot of people got H3N2 in 1968, it killed over a million people
Princess
I’m really glad that my experiences with the Covid vaxx have not been more general. I got Moderna this time, which I think made it worse for me. And I had a terrible reaction to me first shingles shot — it wiped me out for about three days and my arm was sore for two weeks. I’m really hoping for a nasal covid vax that will reduce infection as well as serious illness.
kalakal
@Princess:
Me too. Sorry to hear you had such a strong reaction, it’s really off putting.
sab
@Princess: I have strong shot reactions also. My take is that if this is the shot I really don’t want the disease.
Manyakitty
@CindyH: I’ve been mostly fine after the boosters so far. That second shingles shot, though. Oof. It knocked me out for almost 2 weeks. Still better than getting shingles.
YY_Sima Qian
On 1/21 the China CDC provided a summary of state of the exit tsunami in China as of 1/19:
It appears that the China CDC is providing weekly updates, as opposed to the planned monthly, & the official numbers may be starting to approach reality again, especially the severe/critical cases, & the deaths recorded at hospitals may not be an order of magnitude off from the total.
As of 1/19, 3,489.519M vaccine shots have been injected in Mainland China, 1,310.189M individuals have had at least 1 shot (92.94% of the total population), 1,276.517M individuals have completed their primary course (90.55% of the total population), & 826.531M individuals have had at least 1 booster (58.63% of the total population). For the > 60 y.o. cohort, 241.604M individuals have had at least 1 shot (91.52% of the cohort), 230.115M individuals have completed their primary course (87.18% of the cohort), & 191.933M individuals have have had at least 1 booster (72.7% of the cohort).
Taiwan, Hong Kong & Macau do not appear to be publishing daily data dumps, so I am using data from Worldometer.
On 1/22, Hong Kong reported 2,271 new positive cases & 49 new deaths. There have been 13,167 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
On 1/22, Macau reported 5 new positive cases & 1 new death. There have been 118 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
On 1/22, Taiwan added 10,668 new positive cases & 24 new deaths. There have been 16,122 total COVID-19 deaths to date.
Steeplejack
@Suzanne:
Catturd gets attention simply because Elon Musk follows him and replies to him—a lot. People follow Musk and got to Catturd that way.
Matt McIrvin
@Princess: The second shingles shot was the worst one I’ve had recently–that was about a day of being laid out in bed. None of the COVID shots have been that bad for me, the worst has been a bit of headaches and low energy the next day; more often it’s just a sore shoulder.
Bill Arnold
@kalakal:
1M worldwide. About 100K in the US, less than the current “pandemic is over” COVID-19 kill rate in the USA.
WaterGirl
@kalakal: wow, five years is a long time to get those shots. Could they do intermediate testing so you have some feel for whether it’s starting to help? Or do you not find out anything until you put in the five years?
Can’t wait to hear your results on Thursday!
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
What’s your guess about whether/how much the Chinese government will try to fudge the eventual excess deaths estimates? I’m hoping that they do not, but the current mortality numbers, being reliably parroted by Western media, appear to be (as you suggest) publicly deliberately low by an order of magnitude or more.
Matt McIrvin
Meanwhile, I am definitely on the mend from my bout of COVID. My most recent shot was the bivalent booster way back in mid-September. I had a telemedicine consultation with a practicing nurse on Friday and given the mildness of my symptoms he did not recommend Paxlovid. I do wonder if that was the right call but I went along.
Then Saturday was the worst–no fever or anything, but I had throat irritation from hell that made it painful to eat or talk, not quite like anything I get in a typical cold. But that was only for about a day. It resolved into the typical cold crud that makes me sound like Wolfman Jack, and that’s where I am now.
My kid is completely recovered but deeply disappointed that this killed her participation in an international school trip that she was literally going to leave on the day after she got sick. Could have been worse, she could have gotten sick while she was there and infected everyone else. My spouse had a slightly rougher time than I did but is recovering too.
This has all coincided with repeated snowstorms so I’ve had to work through it to clear snow out of the driveway. At least it gets me out of the house for short intervals.
Matt McIrvin
@Princess: …the Moderna vaccine does seem to pack a bigger wallop just because it’s a bigger dose. I got that for my original shot series but Pfizer for all the subsequent boosters, not for any reason other than that that was what they had on hand at the place.
Matt McIrvin
@WaterGirl: Mid-fifties, so right on the edge of what they generally consider elevated risk.
StringOnAStick
Husband and I have never had much reaction at all to Covid, flu or shingles vaccines, and he has a chronic leukaemia that so far is below treatment level; I tend to catch the whatever is going around stuff, and he rarely ever does. My first Covid vaccine left me tired for a day but none of the others have bothered me.
Even though Covid is at low levels here in the PNW, one of our friends caught it, likely from going to a concert at a pub that was mostly 25-35 year olds, Deadheads looking to catch a bit of Jerry Garcia magic by seeing the son of David Grisman, who did a few albums with him. It makes sense that he caught it there since that age group is the least likely to be vaccinated and also has gone back to not bothering to avoid exposure. He’s experiencing bad head cold symptoms but has not lost his sense of smell.
J R in WV
One of my Covid vax shots put me to sleep for 18 hours the first two nights after the shot. Maybe the second vax shot? long enough ago I no longer recall which for sure. Bivailent booster last Sept was the least bother afterwards, no effect at all.
Matt McIrvin
To expand on what I said earlier about Paxlovid, my personal experience makes me think that one of the main reasons it’s so under-prescribed is that you have to start it within 5 days of first symptoms/positive test; given the delays in our healthcare system for anything not meriting the emergency room, especially if you fall into the wrong part of the work week, that means you have to get on the ball and talk to somebody about it within maybe the first 2 days of your illness; and in that time period, you don’t necessarily know how awful your case is going to be. Add to that the reluctance of medical folks to prescribe it to people who aren’t obviously in danger of dying, and it’s not going to be used a lot.
kalakal
@WaterGirl:
No. you have to wait it out. The allergist is actually getting my tests about 9 months ahead of schedule she’s that confident. I’m not sure how long it takes for the results but I can’t wait.
They tell me that basically if I were stung right now I should get the same effect as the shots so hopefully I’m in the take some Claritidene and you’ll be fine stage. One thing I won’t miss is the 1/2 hour after the shots. Anaphyllaxis nearly always happens in the first 1/2 hour after you’re exposed to whatever it is you’re allergic to . So you sit around waiting for something to happen. Psychosomatic city, espescially as they have a handy dandy chart of symptoms on the wall. My favourite is “Feeling of impending doom” which will be my next album title
kalakal
@Matt McIrvin: Glad to hear you’re on the mend. Must be very scary
kalakal
@Bill Arnold: Horrendous isn’t it. People are fucking insane. World pop has doubled sine 1968 but even so Covid is a lot, lot worse
Matt McIrvin
@kalakal: Thanks. Getting COVID in 2023 with 5 shots in you, effective treatments available for bad cases, and a significant body of knowledge telling you that in your case you’re probably not gonna die, is nowhere near as frightening as it must have been in the early pandemic when we had none of this.
There’s always the specter of long COVID and coming away with some kind of subtle permanent damage, but I also tell myself that at this stage in my life, just living is a source of permanent damage. We seem to have gotten off easy.
I will of course continue to do what I can to keep from getting this again. I get the impression that a major impediment to any kind of public mitigation is that most of the population has already had COVID, for the majority of them it wasn’t a severe case, and they come away thinking it’s not such a big deal, they can live through it. But who knows what kind of physical hit they’re going to take from getting COVID once or twice a year for 20 years? The data on that don’t exist yet.
On the other hand, if the only way to avoid that is “stay the fuck home forever“, people are not going to do that. I still have a few friends who are basically pushing that line for the general population, and I wonder how long they’re going to be able to keep it up.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: I don’t really know. When the exit tsunami gathered steam, & the China National Health Commission’s daily data dumps were showing single digit deaths over a week, the numbers obviously had no credibility. There were more obituaries of relatively eminent persons (retired professors, corporate officers, government bureaucrats, etc.) every day than that.
When the China NHC announced last week that there were nearly 60K COVID-19 related deaths recorded at hospitals from 12/12 – 1/12, it was somewhat closer to reality for the hospital setting, although the best WAGs had actual deaths an order of magnitude higher than that. A lot of people died outside of hospitals, due to not being able to access ambulance services in time, not being able to be admitted into the overcrowded hospitals, sudden deteriorating of seemingly mild symptoms at home, or the terminally ill encouraged by medical staff to go home in order to make room for those who have better chance. We have also seen reporting of hospital staff pressuring families of deceased to accept anything other than COVID-19 as cause of death, likely due to both political pressure to depress COVID-19 related deaths & to avoid the bureaucratic hassle resulting from declaring a death to be COVID-19 related (needing review at the municipal health commission level, which is not at all staffed to handled the deluge during the exit tsunami).
As for the > 12K recorded COVID-19 related deaths at hospitals from 1/13-19, it is likely still an undercount even for hospitals, due to the factors mentioned above. It is certainly an undercount for overall COVID-19 related death during that week, but perhaps not quite as far off as for 12/12 – 1/12, since hospitals are not nearly as stressed during this period, as the exit tsunami recedes.
As for excess deaths, the Chinese state keeps pretty meticulous records of births & deaths, especially since the start of the new millennium. I am sure the Chinese government will have very good visibility into excess deaths. The researchers that published the 2 fairly definitive papers supporting zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2, leveraged excess deaths data in Wuhan at sub-district level from Dec. 2019 – Feb. 2020, showing the growth pattern in excess deaths aligned w/ the epidemiological data & virological modeling, & supported the proposition of spillover events at the Huanan Seafood Market touching off the pandemic. OTOH, the Chinese government can certainly “massage” the data that is released to the public, not sure how anyone can verify one way or the other. FWIW, China announced approximately the same number of deaths from 1/1/2022 – 12/31/2022 as the year prior. Of course, the exit tsunami of infection peaked in the 2nd half of Dec. for almost all of China, which means the bulk of the deaths would occur in Jan.
Another factor to consider is that China has been reporting steady increasing in recorded deaths every year since 2000, no year saw a decrease from the year before, either approximately the same or an increase. Thus, even w/o COVID-19, 2023 would likely have seen more recorded deaths in China than 2022 or any previously year, thus showing an “excess” of deaths. Analysts will 1st have to construct a statistical projection for 2022/23 from historical data, to serve as baseline to compare the actual recorded deaths against. One cannot use the shortcut of averaging deaths from the 5 previously years as baseline. In fact, this would apply for any population that saw a big baby boom post-WW II, & whose “Boomers” are starting to die in increasing numbers before COVID-19.
smith
@kalakal: I had the 1968 flu as well — a miserable experience, but I haven’t had a case of flu since. I guess the prize was a super-primed immune system (now that I’m an Old, I nevertheless do get my flu shot faithfully every year anyway).
Matt McIrvin
Of course, the people who say “we have absolutely no idea what is in COVID vaccines” would not believe the list of ingredients if you handed it to them; they’re conspiracy theorists in thrall to lies. So the ease of finding listings of those ingredients is of no significance at all in their case.
Matt McIrvin
@WaterGirl: I guess the other point worth making is that for most people in the US, the idea of an annual COVID shot isn’t a decrease in frequency, it’s a step up since they didn’t even get the last couple of booster shots. Probably the CDC and FDA are trying to make this as frictionless as possible to try to increase the number of people getting boosted any way they can.
I read the article–somewhat predictably, Bob Wachter thinks it’s a great idea, Eric Topol thinks it’s nowhere near enough shots. I think it’d be a bad idea to replace the initial series of COVID vaccinations with this, certainly, but I think Topol may not appreciate that for most people the feasible alternative you can get them to do isn’t a shot every 4 to 6 months, it’s nothing.
kalakal
@Matt McIrvin: Up to now, so far as I know I’ve not had it, which is surprising because ad a librarian ( in Florida ) I’m around unmasked people a lot. I’m early 60s so getting into bad news territory but my main fear is Long Covid rather than dying. As far as I can see around here as far as most people are concerned it doesn’t exist.
dnfree
@Matt McIrvin: I was off work for three days after the second shingles shot, quite a few years ago. I had high fever, chills, aching— like a really bad flu. I’d never even heard that was a possibility. When I told my doctor, he was nonchalant, like well, that just proves it worked! I told him it would be nice to be forewarned of the possibility. I think with all the talk about vaccines now, Pearce more aware.
Stacy
I always get a flu shot. In 2019 I got what I think was the flu right after Thanksgiving. It was relatively mild, I didn’t need to see a doctor, but I had no energy for 2 days and took a solid 10 days to really feel back to normal. I think without the flu vaccine it could have been much worse.
I have read speculation that people are getting shingles younger than they used to because of the chickenpox vaccine. Before the vaccine became widespread, kids would get chickenpox and for anyone exposed it would be a sort of booster if they already had it. But now chickenpox is much less common so someone who had it as a child 30 or 40 years ago may not have been exposed much if at all in that time. And then the latent virus comes back as shingles.
Audrey
@Soprano2: Of the half a dozen people I know who’ve had shingles, 4 of them were under 40. Including me at 37. I was lucky in that I realized what it was quickly and called my doctor at the first opportunity and got an antiviral prescription. Not sure if it definitely helped, but I had a mild case. Nothing like the commercials for Shingrix portray.
Th youngest person I know who had it was the 18 year daughter of a friend of mine. Now that’s young for shingles! No underlying health problems either.