Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

White supremacy is terrorism.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

The “burn-it-down” people are good with that until they become part of the kindling.

Not all heroes wear capes.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

America is going up in flames. The NYTimes fawns over MAGA celebrities. No longer a real newspaper.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 334: Touch Not the Cat But a Glove!

War for Ukraine Day 334: Touch Not the Cat But a Glove!

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

And here’s the link to purchase NEIVANMADE’s calendar.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today we have continued our diplomatic marathon and have new concrete results for our defense, which are very important.

Today I had extensive negotiations with President of France Macron. We discussed many topics.

I thank Mr. President for his willingness to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense and expand our armored cooperation. This armored element is becoming increasingly important for the situation at the front. So is the artillery element.

I thank France and Emmanuel personally for the much-needed decisions to strengthen Ukraine’s artillery. I am also grateful for the respective leadership within our anti-war coalition.

Russia is preparing for a new wave of aggression with the forces it can mobilize. The occupiers are already increasing pressure in the Bakhmut, Vuhledar and other directions. And they want to increase pressure on a larger scale. In order not to recognize the mistake of aggression, the masters of Russia want to throw more of their people and equipment into the fighting.

This means that all of us in the free world must step up our cooperation to not only respond to Russia’s regular crimes. Although this will happen, of course. There will be a response. But to prevent new Russian criminal actions as much as possible.

Our forces must retain the initiative in the war.

And I heard today a full understanding of the situation both in a conversation with Mr. President Macron and in a conversation with Mr. President of Finland, who was on a visit to Kyiv today.

There is a new package of support from Finland, including defense support. There is a willingness to strengthen sanctions against Russia and to join our diplomatic initiatives. We have a vision of how we can use this year to our countries’ advantage to cooperate within European and Euro-Atlantic institutions.

That is, today, thanks to the French and Finnish stages of our diplomatic marathon, we have significantly strengthened Ukraine’s defense.

The main thing now is the speed of implementation of everything we agreed upon.

Today I discussed in great detail the points of our Peace Formula – what can be done together with France, what can be done together with Finland.

It is very important for European leadership in these diplomatic efforts to be tangible. And today, in particular in my conversation with Emmanuel, I was pleased to hear his leadership initiatives.

I am also grateful to Finland for the vision of the role of this country in guaranteeing our common security under the Peace Formula.

I signed several decrees on awarding the defenders of our country.

Today is the Day of the Foreign Intelligence of Ukraine. So today I have specially honored intelligence officers with awards. Of course, I can’t publicly say the names and specific reasons for the awards, but this is for the work that allows our state to see and understand more.

And I want to congratulate all our intelligence officers – those who expand Ukraine’s capabilities and significantly reduce the enemy’s capabilities. Thank you for your service!

I also signed decrees on awarding the warriors of our army, in particular the 93rd separate mechanized brigade, for their personal bravery and heroism. As well as warriors of the National Guard, in particular the 3rd and 4th operational brigades of the National Guard.

I am thankful for the strength and resilience to each of our warriors and to each family of such warriors!

Today, I also awarded the Air Forces for their much-needed results. And territorial defense warriors – for heroism and exemplary performance of combat missions.

Such decrees are always a special honor for me.

So is another decree signed today. The capital of Lithuania, Vilnius, starts celebrating the 700th anniversary of its foundation. All this time, the histories of our nations have been closely intertwined. And we actually share a common destiny of our freedom: the more protected one nation is, the more protected the other is. Perhaps this is understood more clearly now than ever before in our history.

Ukraine will always be grateful to Lithuania, to Mr. President Nausėda, to all Lithuanian leaders, to all Lithuanian families who perceived the Russian aggression against Ukraine as an attack on their freedom. Who help us protect our common future in a free and peaceful Europe.

Today, I signed a decree awarding Vilnius the honorary distinction of a “Rescuer City” for everything that the city and Lithuania as a whole have done to help us in the fight against Russian terror.

I thank each and every one who fights and works to protect freedom!

I thank everyone who helps!

By the way, there is a lot of talk about tanks now. About the modern tanks we need. And about how to fill this deficit. A lot of effort, words, and promises.

But it is important to see the reality: it is not about five, or ten, or fifteen tanks. The need is greater. Every day we are doing everything necessary to fill the deficit. And I am grateful to everyone who supports us in this.

However, discussions need to end with decisions. Decisions to really strengthen our defense against terrorists. Our allies have the necessary number of tanks. When the necessary weight of decisions is reached, we will be happy to express gratitude for every weighty decision.

We are still working on this.

And one more thing.

Today, society has seen yet another set of personnel decisions that have been made. I emphasize the phrase – “yet another”. We will continue to take appropriate steps – the public will see each of them and, I am sure, will support them.

Any internal issues that hinder the state are being removed and will continue to be removed. It is fair, it is necessary for our defense, and it helps our rapprochement with European institutions.

We need a strong state, and Ukraine will be just that.

And today, by my decree, I put into effect another decision of the National Security and Defense Council. Details will follow later.

Glory to Ukraine!

The BBC has more details on the anti-corruption shake ups in the Ukrainian government:

Several senior Ukrainian officials have resigned as President Volodymyr Zelensky begins a shake-up of personnel across his government.

A top adviser, four deputy ministers and five regional governors left their posts on Tuesday.

Their departures come as Ukraine launches a broad anti-corruption drive.

Recently, authorities have seen bribery claims, reports of officials buying food at inflated prices and one figure accused of living a lavish lifestyle.

Senior aide Mykhailo Podolyak said Mr Zelensky was responding to a “key public demand” that justice should apply to everyone.

The president has already banned state officials from leaving the country unless on authorised business.

The first to resign on Tuesday was Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the president’s deputy head of office, who oversaw regional policy and had earlier worked on Mr Zelensky’s election campaign.

After Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last February he became a frequent spokesperson for the government.

He was accused by Ukrainian investigative journalists of using several expensive sports cars throughout the war – though denies any wrongdoing.

In a Telegram post, he thanked Mr Zelensky for “the opportunity to do good deeds every day and every minute”.

Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov also resigned, following reports he oversaw the purchase of military food supplies at inflated prices from a relatively unknown firm. The department called this a “technical mistake” and claimed no money had changed hands.

The defence minister himself – Oleksii Reznikov – has been under scrutiny for the same reason.

A host of other top officials were dismissed on Tuesday, including:

  • Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukerya
  • Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda
  • Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenko
  • And the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson

A crackdown is one of the EU’s key demands if the country is to advance its application to join the bloc.

In an address on Sunday, Mr Zelensky promised there would be “no return to what used to be in the past, to the way various people close to state institutions” used to live.

His comments followed the arrest of Ukraine’s Deputy Infrastructure Minister Vasyl Lozinskyi on Saturday on suspicion of accepting a bribe worth over $350,000 (£285,000) over the supply of electricity generators. He has denied the charges.

David Arakhamia, the head of Mr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, has said that corrupt officials could face jail.

“Officials at all levels have been constantly warned through official and unofficial channels: focus on the war, help the victims, reduce bureaucracy and stop doing dubious business.

“Many of them have actually listened, but some, unfortunately, did not,” he said in a Telegram statement.

More at the link!

This is how you set a proper example:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Kremenna and Bakhmut:

Nova Kakhovka:

Novoselivske:

Eastern Ukraine:

Crimea:

It worked!

From Politico Europe:

BERLIN — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to announce the delivery of German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine on Wednesday, two officials with knowledge of the matter told POLITICO.

That decision is a significant U-turn and potentially a decisive moment in the war as it should pave the way for a broader coalition of countries to send battle tanks to the frontlines against the Russian invaders. As Leopard 2 tanks are made in Germany, Berlin has to give its permission for their re-export.

Berlin has long resisted sending the Leopard 2s, wanting Washington to take the first step in sending heavy armor. That kind of joint action finally appeared to be imminent on Tuesday, with two U.S. officials saying the administration of President Joe Biden was leaning toward sending “a significant number” of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. An announcement on the U.S. tanks could come as early as this week.

Scholz’s announcement is expected to be made official on Wednesday in an address to the German parliament at 1 p.m. According to one of the officials, Germany will also confirm that it will allow other countries such as Poland to send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Warsaw on Tuesday said it submitted a long-awaited official request to re-export its Leopards.

Leading lawmakers from the two coalition partners of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), welcomed the volte-face by the chancellor.

The FDP’s Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann told POLITICO that “the decision was tough and took far too long” but had ultimately become “inevitable.”

“That Germany is allowing its partner countries to deliver the Leopard 2 tanks and is also delivering its own tanks is redemptive news for the battered and brave Ukrainian people.”

Strack-Zimmermann, who chairs the German parliament’s defense committee, added that Scholz’s decision “signifies an important step in pushing back Russia’s brutal assault on an innocent people. With the very substantial assistance that Germany has already provided in recent months and will continue to provide with its partner, a decisive step has been taken today on the road back to peace and freedom.”

The Greens’ Anton Hofreiter, the chair of the German parliament’s European Affairs Committee, said that “the decision to support Ukraine with Leopard 2 is the right one.”

Still, he also complained “it would have been better for Germany’s international reputation to decide more quickly. In particular, many countries in Europe were annoyed to make the delivery dependent on the United States. But better late than never. Putin will only be ready to negotiate seriously when he realizes that he cannot win the war even in the long run.”

Katja Leikert, a lawmaker from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the main German opposition party, said: “Once again, we have to be thankful for the Americans and the role they played in unlocking this.”

More at the link!

We now check in and see how the news is going over in Moscow:

He seems nice…

This is gonna do some damage!

A little militarized Keynesianism for the win!

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

84Comments

  4. 4.

    dmsilev

    If it will take several months to bring the Ukrainian army and Abrams tanks into readiness with each other, what’s the story on Leopards? Or the Challengers that the British have agreed to provide, for that matter.

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    Would whichever one of you commenters or lurkers is a Fella shoot me an email? I’ve bought several items from St. Javelin, but since I don’t tweet or have a Twitter account, I can’t reach out to Kamilla to get my own Fella avatar. I was hoping one of you would be willing to act as the go between?

    Thanks in advance!

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    @dmsilev: Challengers are on the way. I expect that Poland and a few other NATO members have the Leopards ready to go. I expect everything will be in place for the spring offensive. What will be interesting to see is if this forces Putin and Gerasimov to rush things on their end and begin their spring offensive before they’re ready.

  8. 8.

    CaseyL

    Cleaning out corruption was one of Zelenskyy’s campaign promises – and, before the war, he got a lot of criticism for not following through enough on it.  If the war provided his government a chance to crack down, then good for him, good for his government, and good for Ukraine.

  10. 10.

    oldster

    I think Poland is going to be champing at the bit — they’ll have their Leopards all gassed up and ready to go at the earliest possible moment. It also would not surprise me if they have been training some Ukrainian tankers for a few months in preparation for this day.

    They, more than anyone in Europe, understand that Ukraine is the bulwark against Russian adventurism, and that Ukrainians are dying to keep them safe.

    Germany is such a disappointment. But now that Biden has called their bluff, it seems they may finally do late what they should have done early.

    Good news also that Switzerland is considering changing their own internal legislation to make it legal for them to provide ammunition to a nation at war. (Not that any such alleged scruples stopped them from helping Germany 80 years ago….)

    The good news comes, slowly, painfully, but it comes.  Thanks for your help in delivering it, Adam.

  12. 12.

    Bill Arnold

    @CaseyL:
    Re-upping this recent publication from USAID:
    DEKLEPTIFICATION GUIDE – Seizing Windows of Opportunity to Dismantle Kleptocracy (USAID, September 07, 2022, full 84-page PDF available)
    See this annex (pages 59-77):

    ANNEX 1: UKRAINE CASE STUDY, 2014-PRESENT
    The window of opportunity that opened with Ukraine’s 2014 Revolution of Dignity is the clearest model of inclusive institutions developing into a virtuous circle. Eight years later, Ukrainian dekleptification has been effective and popular. It continues to not only help repel kleptocracy and strategic corruption, but also help equip and motivate Ukrainians to defend their sovereignty with historic valor on the battlefield.
    …

  13. 13.

    Torrey

    Zelenskyy made an additional statement yesterday in English, aimed specifically at Chamber of Commerce types in the U.S. Really excellent rhetoric, focusing on the relationship between the two countries, comparing supporting Ukraine to starting a business, the importance of freedom and property (the man knows how to talk to capitalists), “We are defending everything that made you, in particular, who you are” (well done!), and closing with “God bless our countries and our heroes,” echoing U.S. presidents’ “God bless the United States of America” and Biden’s addition of “God protect our troops.”

    (Apologies if someone else mentioned this. I was late to yesterday’s thread as usual and skimmed through but didn’t see a reference to it. It’s definitely well worth a listen.)

    (Note: I’m using the word “rhetoric” here in the Aristotelian sense: “the art of finding in any given case the available means of persuasion.” I’m aware that the word often carries a negative connotation, which is not the way I’m using it here.)

  17. 17.

    Roger Moore

    @Adam L Silverman:

    What will be interesting to see is if this forces Putin and Gerasimov to rush things on their end and begin their spring offensive before they’re ready.

    How early can they realistically launch a spring offensive?  Anything before the mud dries up will be limited to a war of attrition, because there’s no way they can realistically support a breakthrough.  They should have learned the limits of being restricted to the roads last year.

  18. 18.

    lashonharangue

    @Martin: I think this ammo is produced at Government Owned-Contractor Operated facilities. They probably have some production lines that are in mothballs. You want to be careful bringing them back on line so things don’t go boom before they get to Ukraine.

  19. 19.

    Roger Moore

    @Martin:

    2 years? FFS. Everyone wants to promote American manufacturing, but 2 years is fucking ages.

    Yeah, 2 years is ages, but they’ll presumably have ramped up production somewhat before then.  Also, if they have a promise of increased production, they can send some of our already produced 155s to Ukraine and count on them being replaced in the near future.

  20. 20.

    Anoniminous

    It takes time for arm’s manufacturers to switch from low-level peace time to high-level war time production.   The main reason the US was able to swing into full war time production in 1942 was Roosevelt started ramping up war production in 1940.

  21. 21.

    dmsilev

    @Roger Moore: Well, human-wave battles of attrition seems to be Russia’s go-to tactic at the moment, so not sure why they’d let just a bit of mud get in the way.

  22. 22.

    oldster

    It would be nice if Biden could snap his fingers and make defense production spring to life, or snap his fingers and put M1As in Ukraine with a full supply chain behind them.

    But talking in terms of months and years also sends a useful message to Putin: we are in this for the long haul, too.  And we are not suffering anywhere near as much as Russia is.

  23. 23.

    Anoniminous

    @Roger Moore:
    Spring/Summer campaign season typically starts in May or June depending on the spring rains.  German Fall Blau Offensive was supposed to start in May but the Soviets preempted it by starting the Second Battle of Kharkov on May 12th 1942.  After the Red Army got their asses kicked – badly – the German’s Offensive started off on June 28th.
    In theory January through March are “campaign-able” but that’s at a big risk of getting everything stuck in the mud if there’s a warm rainy spell.​

  24. 24.

    Ruckus

    @Martin:

    As someone who has owned a precision machining company I say 2 yrs to double production of something like ammunition is not all that slow. I have had customers who wanted a project done in 2 weeks that takes 5-6 months to accomplish. And that wasn’t manufacturing explosive devices. I’ve had the federal government in my shop during production because we occasionally used some materials that were hazardous. We knew and used proper precautions because we weren’t stupid but not everyone does that. And manufacturing production can and often has to be performed in a proper sequence to happen at all. And it takes employees/possibly extra shifts, dangerous materials, etc. I have been around and handled large projectile ammunition only slightly smaller than 155mm rounds. None of it is easy, all of it requires immense safety efforts and constant inspection

    It takes time no matter how fast you want it done.

  25. 25.

    Cowgirl in the Sandi

    OT but am I crazy?  Shouldn’t this be a bigger story?  There is nothing on the Wapo or NYTimes site and nothing on the TV news.  All they can talk about is George Santos and M&Ms!  Sheesh!

    A former Special Agent in Charge of the FBI New York Counterintelligence Division and a former Soviet and Russian diplomat were arrested Saturday on criminal charges related to their alleged violating and conspiring to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and conspiring to commit money laundering and money laundering.

  30. 30.

    Martin

    @Ruckus: I makes me wonder how a nation that expects to be able to fight two major conflicts at once can expect to do so and still ask its adversary to ‘hold up, imma gonna need 2 years to get ready’.

    I mean, yeah, you can see these things coming, and so on, but Ukraine is one conflict that we saw coming, and we’re not the only one supplying them. It seems to me that, much like vaccine production, this is the sort of thing you want to have production capacity built for and ready to go. You don’t have to staff it, just maintain it. Surely there’s enough cost plus going around to require this in our contracts.

    Or, is this a question of us wanting to send our outdated stuff and not our cutting edge stuff and having to spin up production of components that we didn’t expect to have to build any longer? That I could better understand.

  31. 31.

    Martin

    @Cowgirl in the Sandi: Yeah, it really should be. Especially in light of Clinton’s emails, the whole situation of which was due to a leak in that office. One James Comey:

    I was concerned that there appeared to be in the media a number of stories that might have been based on communications reporters or nonreporters like Rudy Giuliani were having with people in the New York field office. In particular, in I want to say mid October, maybe a little bit later, Mr. Giuliani was making statements that appeared to be based on his knowledge of workings inside the FBI New York. And then my recollection is there were other stories that were in the same ballpark that gave me a general concern that we may have a leak problem — unauthorized disclosure problem out of New York, and so I asked that it be investigated.

    If the NY field office was as dirty as we all suspected, why did this take so long, and how much damage was done? Seems like a lot.

  33. 33.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Martin: I’ve read two stories:

    1. We’re sending them stuff to fight a purely ground war.  Whereas we’d fight from the air.  So we didn’t think we’d need as much artillery (for instance) — we’d use bombs more.
    2. We were *mistaken* — our experience in the GWOT taught us that we didn’t need as much munitions as … it turns out,  you need to fight a near-peer adversary.

    So we’re running out of Stingers and Javelins, which we never expected, right?  Ditto Excaliburs.  Ditto HIMARS missiles (IIRC).  And of course artillery shells.  Some of that is in bucket #1, some in #2 above.

  35. 35.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Roger Moore: There’s objective reality and then there’s the one Putin lives in. And learning lessons from last winter is doing a lot of work given this dynamic.

  38. 38.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Chetan Murthy: The usual suspects used the GWOT to argue that both tank and artillery are obsolete on the modern battlefield.  And a lot of those units who rotated through Iraq and Afghanistan were used in non-traditional roles.  I expect to see a resurgence in the importance of both armor and artillery in future doctrine.

  40. 40.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @O. Felix Culpa: I think that the German Leopards aren’t that important in the short term.  Their willingness to provide them at all will free Poland, etc., to provided theirs in far larger numbers.

  41. 41.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Ruckus: Moreover, the 2 year figure is for peak production rate. The stary quotes the assistant Secretary of the Army thusly:

    “We’re going to start seeing this summer our first significant step up in terms of rounds per month,” he said of the shell production goals. “The ramp really hits its stride in fiscal year 2024.”

    Fiscal Year 2024 begins next October 1, about 9 months from now. Some unspecified time after that sees ‘the ramp hitting its stride.” In between, there’s a ramp-up.

    So there should be significant production increases this summer, and a noticeable ramp-up by the beinning of next year.

  42. 42.

    Anoniminous

    Wonder if the Swedes have any Stridsvagn 103 in operational condition. It would be REALLY interesting to see how the design works in actual combat. I note its inspiration the Sturmgeschütz III was a very successful design in both its original role in infantry support and later as an anti-tank platform.​

  45. 45.

    HinTN

    @Ruckus: My first engineering mentor told me, when I bitched about wanting something, “You can want in one hand and shit in the other and see which fills up first.” Damn if I didn’t learn something.

  46. 46.

    Jay

    @Cowgirl in the Sandi:

    reports today not that when the FBI and other agencies noticed assets and agents “disappearing” in Russia and elsewhere, dude, as the FBI New York Intelligence head was put in charge of the mole hunt.

    Dude, after working for Russia while in the FBI, decided to upon retirement, not open a 7-11 or a roofing company, but instead decided to take a high profile job with sanctioned Russian companies and proxies.

    Not smart.

  48. 48.

    Wombat Probability Cloud

    @Carlo Graziani: Carlo, I didn’t see your request for tank links at dkos until this morning. I posted a couple at the tail end of last night’s discussion, and I can repeat them here if you wish.

  50. 50.

    Bill Arnold

    @Omnes Omnibus:
    Thanks. And while looking up the differences between the M9/M17 (whew! gun nuts are opinionated), learned a new word: “hoplophobe” (one who fears weapons).

  53. 53.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @HinTN: ​
      I have a great grandmother who reputed told her children if they complained about her food, “Eat that or eat shit.” I never met her.

  54. 54.

    Martin

    @Chetan Murthy: Okay, that makes more sense. You’re right, the US fights from the air. We spend accordingly.

    Still, the US needs to get a lot better at tipping up production.

  59. 59.

    Martin

    @HinTN: Apparently not huge enough. Of equipment, sure. No problem there. But ammunition – the rate a military can go through that stuff is astonishing. I don’t think that’s the sort of thing you can operate out of stockpiles for long before you have to have production matching pace.

  60. 60.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Adam L Silverman:

    What will be interesting to see is if this forces Putin and Gerasimov to rush things on their end and begin their spring offensive before they’re ready.

    For what it’s worth: I would be very surprised if a renewed Russian offensive in the spring accomplished anything of significance, even if they are allowed plenty of time to get set.

    Much has been made of Ukrainian inexperience with combined-arms tactics, but as usual the reverse question—to wit, “are the Russians competent at combined-arms warfare”—is rarely examined, despite abundant evidence from last year’s campaign that the Russians cannot manage the simplest of combined-arms maneuvers. The only tactic that has worked at all for Russian ground forces at all is grinding, artillery-forward massed concentration that pulverizes everything in its ponderously slow way.

    To imagine that now, or even next May, the infusion of new manpower will revitalize the Russian army to the point that it can suddenly conduct effective combined-arms offensive thrusts requires an act of deluded faith. This army never even trained seriously for such warfare, never imagining that it would be called upon to perform any prior to 24 February 2022. Even if they wanted to start taking it seriously now, it’s far too late. They burned up all their training assets by sending them to the front without rotating and resting replacement assets, on the crazy gamble that a desperate all-hands-on-deck effort could end the war. The gamble failed, and now they will have new manpower experienced for 3-5 months in basic infantry training at best, by the time the spring campaign begins. This is pathetically little training: in that time they can train soldiers to point rifles in the right direction, but hardly anything more.

    Meanwhile UA officers are getting lectured by the academic stars of the US Army War College—the modern counterpart of the Prussian/German General Staff pros—on combined-arms operations and tactics, weapons, logistics, intelligence, etc. And the UA is the recipient of not only NATO-standard MBTs, but also state-of-the-art infantry APCs, obstacle-breaching and mine-clearing vehicles, tons of new artillery tubes an shells, possibly artillery missiles intermediate between HIMARS M-31 and ATACMS (the GLSDB).

    And the UA gives no sign of wishing to let up pressure, go on the defensive, and let the Russians control the tempo of the war anyway, judging from the progess that they’ve made around Kreminna (probably about 100 times more rapid than the Russian progress around Bakhmut).

    My bottom line is this: both sides are making plans to end the war in the spring. The Russian plans are based on their continuing delusions of military adequacy. The Ukrainian plans have real chances of success.

  61. 61.

    Jay

    @Cameron:

    a bunch of British Government Orgs, who should not have touched the Wagner “lawsuit” and Conservative Politicians, with a 22 foot pole,  based on “laws” and “rules” went “all in” to let Wagner sue.

  62. 62.

    Jay

    @Martin:

    In 1915, there was the “quiet season”. Both the Allies and the Central Powers, all ran out of ammo, at roughly the same time.

  63. 63.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Cameron: Eliot Higgins is a leader of BellingCat (IIUC).  He exposed Prigozhin as running Wagner.  Prigozhin claim that he did not, and sued Higgins for libel in the UK.  IIUC, this new trove shows that the UK government connived in helping Prigozhin in his suit against Higgins.  Specifically, IIUC, Rish! Sunak’s Treasury helped.  As did (of course) various high-priced lawyers in the UK.

    Of course, now Prigozhin openly trumpets his leadership of Wagner, so all that previous stuff he claimed is completely and utterly false.  And Higgins was completely correct.  But hey, a ton of money got spent and I’m sure no harm no foul, Higgins wasn’t harmed at all.  Nosirreeeeee.

  64. 64.

    Kent

    @Martin:@Ruckus: I makes me wonder how a nation that expects to be able to fight two major conflicts at once can expect to do so and still ask its adversary to ‘hold up, imma gonna need 2 years to get ready’.

    But none of the wars that the Pentagon plans for are really continental wars on the steppes of central Europe that require WW2 levels of tanks and artillery.  They are planning for force projection at long distances which is mostly sea and air.  If we were to get involved in continental land battles with say China we’d be completely fucked.  Because they’d be trucking stuff from 50 miles away while we’d had 10,000 mile supply lines.

    So we plan to fight them at sea and air and take out their strategic installations from long distance.  Even if we were to get involved in a war over Taiwan, that would be a sea and air war.    We wouldn’t be using 155 mm artillery or even tanks.  It would all be carrier strike forces and subs taking out their ships and blowing up all the harbors on the Chinese coast from which invasion forces would be coming and would be supplied from.

    And in Europe with NATO?  That is all defensive stuff.  Which means wiping out the enemy from the air before it got close.  If NATO forces were actually fighting in Ukraine there would not be a single Russian train or truck that could move day or night without getting vaporized along with every bridge and communications installation.

  66. 66.

    piratedan

    @Jay: kind of seems to be their MO though… I mean so much crime that the prosecutors can’t keep up and so much of it reported out in the open, yet nothing (apparently) done to follow up on it.

    By that I mean, these guys have not been subtle, no one says anything when the guy who is on the counter-terrorism beat goes and begins consulting for the very people he was supposed to be on the lookout for?  He’s not the first one to be out there loud and proud about his paymasters…. Manafort, Flynn, etc…

    At this point, it makes you wonder if there needs to be a job in the FBI or the NSA for SOMEONE to simply read the damn papers/websites that are out there to determine what crime was actually committed  and what is disinformation and track each accordingly.  Only because it sure feels like there are a whole lotta threads that are laying about to be knitted into a warm crime muffler.

  68. 68.

    Ruckus

    @Carlo Graziani:

    I understand that it is ramping up. But my point was that even if you want whatever tomorrow it takes time to first build OR to ramp up. Adding in explosives of any kind adds a layer of time and effort. There are people involved, do you employ enough to come to full production or do you have to hire and train? And does that also take into account any sub contractors for parts that may also need to ramp up? In this case I understand that production is doubling. That may not mean much if you make one or two of something, it will be significant if you make one or two million. In this case there are a few different materials, some take far longer to machine or build than others. Some are sort of dangerous to work with. Does the facility have machines to do the work required or do they have to be purchased and installed? How many different types of the same size ammunition are necessary to be built? And so on.

    Now all of this, with a 2 yr timeline sounds not too bad, because I’ve had experience with customers that were doing similar volume increases – in extremely different products though, and it requires time as much as anything else and this work is, let’s just say, somewhat dangerous.

  69. 69.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @VOR: That’s not Western doctrine anymore.  Fires are more accurate and more selective.  That’s not to say that a lot of rounds can’t go down range pretty quickly.

  71. 71.

    Freemark

    @VOR: ​
     
    For comparison most of that would 75mm to 105 mm. Shells were much smaller than what is in use in Ukraine. They had some very large guns in WWI but they had an extremely slow firing rate and absurdly bad mobility So you are comparing mostly 5 kg shells to 42 kg (152-155mm) shells. The Russians were using close to 20,000 shells a day at one point. 140,000 in a week. So still not anywhere near Somme level but probably equivalent to 500,000 to 800,000 WWI shells.

  72. 72.

    livewyre

    @piratedan: This is one of the more counterintuitive principles of law (speaking as an armchair philosopher and not a lawyer), but it’s actually in the public interest for the public to be the last to know about the progress of an investigation – no matter how brazen the offense. That way admissible evidence (often not public) doesn’t get hidden or destroyed due to forewarning, or the alleged offender a chance to think up jury-plausible excuses for it or just run for the hills.

    In other words, complacency favors the prosecution. It really is frustrating in the meanwhile to see nothing appear to be happening, though.

  73. 73.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)

    @Ruckus: Added to that, there’s securing the necessary amounts of raw materials, which have to be to military specifications. To say nothing of the fact that the necessary explosives and propellants need to be made—it’s generally not safe to leave large amounts of those sitting around in stockpiles—even in already-manufactured ammunition they can become, um, unexpectedly exciting in the wrong conditions.

  75. 75.

    Kent

    @Omnes Omnibus:@Kent: Ah, an air power guy.  Maybe someday, you’ll be right.

    Not me.  I’m just expressing what seems to be Pentagon policy based on where they spend the most money.  It is on fancy planes and aircraft carriers not tanks

    A B-2 bomber costs $2.13 BILLION.   You could buy 236 M1A1 Abrams tanks at $9 million each for the cost of one B-2 bomber.  Or if you want to buy howitzers, you could buy about 600 M777 howitzers for the price of 1 B-2 Bomber.

  79. 79.

    Hango Kex

    Germany itself is sending 14 Leopard 2 tanks from its armed forces’ stocks to Ukraine. Germany and the allies would initially supply the Ukrainians with two battalions equipped with the tanks. The training of Ukrainian soldiers in Germany who will operate these tanks will start “soon”.

    (from https://yle.fi/a/74-20010573/64-3-134546 quote translated from Finnish with deepl.com/translate)

    So, according to this the number of Leopards Germany itself is sending is indeed 14; the total, from Germany and others, would be as many as putting together two battalions takes, so probably a couple of tens as the battalions would presumably also include mechanized infantry companies?

  80. 80.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Hango Kex: I would think that they are talking full armored battalions.  At least in the US and the UK, units are generally organized by type.  They will deploy as combined arms task forces, but, in garrison, they put like with like.  Therefore, I am thinking this should be around 100-120 Leopards total.

  81. 81.

    J R in WV

    @Omnes Omnibus: ​

    Looks like the Germans fixed up a company’s worth of Leopards.

    I keep hearing groups of tanks described as squadrons or companies. I know that among different nations a company of troops varies in number, and between the designated purposes of companies.

    For the German military, how many tanks are in a company?

    For the British military, how many tanks are in a squadron?

    Do other NATO members have different terms and group counts for their fighting units of tanks?

    How are American tanks organized, and what is the number of tanks normally associated with the various organized groupings of tanks?

    Because telling me that a company or squadron of tanks (or any other large scale military asset for that matter!) will be changing hands is much less meaningful to me than discussing that murder of crows hanging out at Tommy’s farm lately…

    It looks to me as if Ukraine needs several hundreds of operational state of the art tanks to actually mount any kind of successful late winter offensive. We know that Ukraine has many former Soviet and recently captured Russian tanks as well. Appropriately they do not reveal their current population numbers of those heavy armor units, but we do see highly educated guesses on those totals.

    Thanks for any light anyone can shed on this issue. I’m not asking for secret squirrel level info…

    ETA: And I see others have remarked on this issue, and the discussions appear to still have a large amount of mystery regarding actual totals of tanks to be moved into Ukraine.

  83. 83.

    Geminid

    @J R in WV: An article by David Axe for Forbes Magazine sheds some light on these questions. It’s from January 17 and is titled “The Ukrainian Army Could Form Three New Tank Brigades With All These Tanks and Fighting Vehicles It’s Getting.”

         The first of the Western-style brigades already exists and is training around Kharkiv and in Germany while reequipping with 28 super upgraded, ex-Slovenian M-55S tanks and up to 50 American M-2 fighting vehicles.

    A second brigade could fall in on the hundreds of armored vehicles- including 14 Challenger tanks- that the United Kingdom pledged this past weekend.

    The third brigade is somewhat more hypothetical. It might include the 14 Leopard 2 tanks that Poland announced last week it would donate. It could also take charge of scores of German Marder fighting vehicles and AMX-10RC reconnaissance vehicles from France.

    Where the first two brigades, each with an understrength tank battalion, would qualify as mechanized brigades, the Ukrainian government wants the third division to be a tank formation. “Our goal is to assemble a brigade from Leopard tanks,” [says] Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba.

    Axe says this would require 80-90 tanks in addition to the 14 from Poland. In (very) general terms, he describes a tank brigade as having 3-4 battalions and “several thousand troops.”

    Axe writes that Ukraine has at least four tank brigades now and maybe 2 or 3 more.

    As for existing Ukrainian tank numbers, Axe says it entered the war with 1000, lost 400,  received “hundreds” from ex-Soviet bloc nations as well as capturing “hundreds.” I expect many of these have broken down and/or been salvaged for parts.

  84. 84.

    Hangö Kex

    @Omnes Omnibus: A follow-up piece featuring the local media’s go-to military expert Pekka Toveri* has even a bit higher guesstimate of a 130-150 grand total from all contributing countries (https://yle.fi/a/74-20014639).

    * retired (2020) Chief of Intelligence of the General Staff / major (“two star”) general, also happens to be a former armored brigade commander; curiously, “toveri” is Finnish for “comrade”.

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